WEBVTT - Solving the climate crisis - Are more trees actually the answer?

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<v Speaker 1>Kyota.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The government's

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<v Speaker 2>likely to pass a law banning farm to forest conversions

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<v Speaker 2>to protect productive farmland for food production. It'll mean a

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<v Speaker 2>restriction on planting forests on high quality land and it's

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<v Speaker 2>a response to the previous government's emissions reduction plan. Agriculture

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<v Speaker 2>Minister Todd McLay has emphasized the need to protect productive farmland,

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<v Speaker 2>maintain food security and ensure that forestry expansion doesn't come

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<v Speaker 2>at the expense of agriculture and rural livelihoods. But have

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<v Speaker 2>we placed too much importance on planting trees anyway? And

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<v Speaker 2>should we be focusing on other efforts elsewhere? Today on

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<v Speaker 2>the front page of Canterbury Emeritus Professor David Norton is

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<v Speaker 2>with us to break down what this all actually means

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<v Speaker 2>and whether we'll be able to meet our ambitious climate targets.

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<v Speaker 2>First off, David, can you tell us what farm to

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<v Speaker 2>forest conversions actually are?

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<v Speaker 3>Yep. But it's a good question because it's often quite

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<v Speaker 3>confusing and essentially a company that could be a New

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<v Speaker 3>Zealand company, it could be an overseas company purchases a farm,

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<v Speaker 3>typically a sheet and beef farm, and they plant the

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<v Speaker 3>whole farm up in fast growing exotic trees, usually pineous radiata,

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<v Speaker 3>for carbon sequestration purposes.

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<v Speaker 2>And so what is carbon farming? Is that the planting

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<v Speaker 2>of the pine to offset carbon emissions.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's not to offset carbon emission. So carbon farming

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<v Speaker 3>is basically the process of planting up a farm in

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<v Speaker 3>fast growing exotic trees with the objective to seque to

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<v Speaker 3>carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and to earn money

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<v Speaker 3>from doing that. And yeah, it is called offsetting because

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<v Speaker 3>somebody who is producing emissions, a company that's using petrol, diesel, whatever,

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<v Speaker 3>can then buy those credits to offset their emissions.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the main evidence for the government wanting to

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<v Speaker 2>restrict farm to forestry conversions.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so the reason why they brought the restrictions in

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<v Speaker 3>is because of concerns within the farming sector that good

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<v Speaker 3>quality farmland was being taken out of farming and put

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<v Speaker 3>into carbon forests. The difficulty with carbon forests is that

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<v Speaker 3>they are a permanent land used they have to be

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<v Speaker 3>there forever, because once you've drawn that carbon down from

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<v Speaker 3>the atmosphere, it needs to stay in those trees and perpetuity,

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<v Speaker 3>so it rules out any opportunity to go back into

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<v Speaker 3>farming on that land again. So I think the biggest

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<v Speaker 3>concern that drove this change was that desire to restrict

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<v Speaker 3>that that sort of locking up a potential farmland for

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<v Speaker 3>the future. In the proposal, it restricts it that you

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<v Speaker 3>can't do it on land News classes one to five,

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<v Speaker 3>and there's a limit on land News Class six as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. That leads me on to my next question, Actually,

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<v Speaker 2>how do we determine what is high, medium and low

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<v Speaker 2>quality land?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so there's a national system that ranks all land

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<v Speaker 3>in New Zealand on its productivity essentially, and so the

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<v Speaker 3>most productive land would be land that's used to say cereal,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, wheat growing and other crops horticulture, right through

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<v Speaker 3>to the least productive land, which would be land that is,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, might only graze one or two stock units

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<v Speaker 3>per hecta. That's very very low productivity. And so the

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<v Speaker 3>idea of the regulations was to limit the conversion of

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<v Speaker 3>high quality or highly productive farmland to pine trees and

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<v Speaker 3>restrict that largely at lower productivity hill country, steeper hill

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<v Speaker 3>country farmland.

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<v Speaker 2>That doesn't do anything to alleviate the fears of beef

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<v Speaker 2>and sheep far as though, does it.

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<v Speaker 3>It shifts it more to the least productive end of

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<v Speaker 3>the spectrum. So the better downlands lower hill country lands

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<v Speaker 3>has certainly got much more restrictions on it. Yes, so

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<v Speaker 3>it does alleviate it to some degree, but there is

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<v Speaker 3>still a lot of concern in the farming community. I understand.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because I saw in October last year, we saw

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<v Speaker 2>the closure of alliance groups meat processing plant and Timoru,

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<v Speaker 2>affecting about six hundred jobs, and fed farmers at that

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<v Speaker 2>time pointed to land use changes, including the conversions to forestry,

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<v Speaker 2>as a contributing factor. Obviously the forestry industry disputed this.

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<v Speaker 2>But in a situation like this, do the environmental gains

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<v Speaker 2>outweigh I guess the jobs in rural communities.

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<v Speaker 3>From my perspective anomen ecologist, that there are no environmental

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<v Speaker 3>gains in doing this. I actually think carbon farming is

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<v Speaker 3>a flawed process. It's basically a small group of people

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<v Speaker 3>trying to make a lot of money in a short

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<v Speaker 3>period of time with zero consideration for the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because you've made a good point before, as well,

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<v Speaker 2>to my understand my very basic understanding is that when

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<v Speaker 2>you come in and plant these pine forests, it's like

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred year commitment. You have to be doing it consistently,

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<v Speaker 2>cutting them down regrowing for it to be any good.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Okay, Two, there's really good question, and there's two

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<v Speaker 3>important points in there. A lot of these farm to

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<v Speaker 3>forest conversions are not being managed for sustainable timber supply.

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<v Speaker 3>They're simply being planted for carbon and then basically the

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<v Speaker 3>owners walk away and leave them. That's very different from

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<v Speaker 3>a production plantation forest that's been managed on sustainable rotation

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<v Speaker 3>to produce timber every thirty twenty five thirty years on

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<v Speaker 3>an ongoing basis. So most of these farm to forest

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<v Speaker 3>conversions are simply being planted up. They sequest a carbon

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<v Speaker 3>for twenty thirty forty years, and then they have to

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<v Speaker 3>be in the ground because that carbon has been sequested.

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<v Speaker 3>They're not being managed into the future, and they impose

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<v Speaker 3>massive economic and environmental liabilities on us as we move

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<v Speaker 3>into future generations.

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<v Speaker 2>Why aren't they planting native species? Why is it always

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<v Speaker 2>pine and exotic species.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great question, and the reason is that the

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<v Speaker 3>whole emissions trading scheme that this is all working through

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<v Speaker 3>is set up to make pines the favored outcome, and

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<v Speaker 3>the incentives are all completely twisted and counter against native forests.

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<v Speaker 3>And I mean, I think it's really important to recognize

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<v Speaker 3>that people are getting rich, making a lot of money,

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<v Speaker 3>getting rich over a short period of time from carbon credits.

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<v Speaker 3>They get their credits and they can forget about that forest.

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<v Speaker 3>But someone's got to make sure that carbon stays in

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<v Speaker 3>the ground in the future. And if the investors are

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<v Speaker 3>taking their money and gone, then it's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>future generations in New Zealand that are responsible for looking

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<v Speaker 3>after that carbon that's been stored there, because it's supposed

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<v Speaker 3>to be storedly. But at the same time, we know

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<v Speaker 3>that these pine forests are not adapted to the New

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<v Speaker 3>Zealand environment. They won't maintain themselves, they will collapse, They

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<v Speaker 3>will be sources of diseases, of dare of pa species.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, we saw what happened in cyclone Gabriel,

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<v Speaker 3>We saw what happened to Nelson Tasman a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, these forests are imposing massive environmental liabilities on us.

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<v Speaker 3>And what we need is we need diverse native forests

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<v Speaker 3>established across the landscape into woven into farming systems, not

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<v Speaker 3>replacing farming, but into woven's farming systems. Unfortunately, the ETS

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<v Speaker 3>is stacked against that. It just doesn't make it possible

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<v Speaker 3>at the moment. This is what the Parliamentary Commissioner for

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<v Speaker 3>the Environment said and his report recently. You know, the

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<v Speaker 3>whole system is wrong. It's set up against natives.

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<v Speaker 4>So what you're saying is we are going to have

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<v Speaker 4>higher emissions leading up to twenty thirty because of your

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<v Speaker 4>governments policies.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to have that accurate?

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<v Speaker 3>Nor what is that?

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<v Speaker 4>Is that accurate? What is that is that accurate? Will

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<v Speaker 4>New Zealand have higher emissions than we would have under

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<v Speaker 4>the previous government? Under your government in the period leading

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<v Speaker 4>to twenty thirty?

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<v Speaker 3>What is accurate?

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<v Speaker 5>It is to say that the missions profile, the plan

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<v Speaker 5>that we have put in place will enable us to

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<v Speaker 5>meet our budgets for the period ending to it.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not the question I asked though, But the question

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<v Speaker 4>I asked is under your government's policies, will our emissions

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<v Speaker 4>leading up to twenty thirty be higher than they would

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<v Speaker 4>under the previous government.

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<v Speaker 5>Technically, in the region of about one point five mega

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<v Speaker 5>tons of point of difference by the end, So thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>Does our emissions reduction plan rely too heavily on forestry.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. What we're doing is we're basically saying, keep producing emissions,

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<v Speaker 3>you can offset them. But actually what we need to

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<v Speaker 3>be doing is cutting our emissions, and the emissions reduction

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<v Speaker 3>plan isn't doing that, is just relying on fast growing

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<v Speaker 3>trees to push the problem out into the future, not

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<v Speaker 3>addressing the missions reductions at all.

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<v Speaker 2>So the coalition brought in the removal of agriculture from

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<v Speaker 2>the ETS, and that was welcomed by farmers, criticized by environmentalists.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you make of this move?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean I think what we need is we

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<v Speaker 3>need to separate out methane, which is what livestock are

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<v Speaker 3>producing from all the other all Carton dixide, which is

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<v Speaker 3>from petrol and diesel and all that stuff. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think we need to have a separate biogenic system where

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<v Speaker 3>farmers can offset their own emissions in their livestock on farm.

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<v Speaker 3>Methane behaves very differently to CO two and that should

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<v Speaker 3>be done in one system, and then there should be

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<v Speaker 3>a separate system that is focused on reducing our overall

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<v Speaker 3>CO two emissions from hydrocarbons, and the two should be

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<v Speaker 3>separated out and dealt with quite separately.

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<v Speaker 2>What alternatives are there and it should we be focusing

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<v Speaker 2>on more?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think what we should be doing in New

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<v Speaker 3>Zealand from my perspective is quite simply. We should have

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<v Speaker 3>a standalone biogenic methane system for farmers and they can

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<v Speaker 3>plant woodlots on their farmers, they can use native vegetation

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<v Speaker 3>to offset their methane productions. We need to have genuine

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<v Speaker 3>tools in place that guarantee we reduce emissions. We're not

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<v Speaker 3>reducing emissions. We've got to bring our emissions down less

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<v Speaker 3>fossil fuels, and we need to be building landscape resilience,

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<v Speaker 3>and that by building landscape resilience, by planting diverse native forests,

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<v Speaker 3>by establishing more native wetlands, we can sequest a draw

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<v Speaker 3>carbon down from the atmosphere. But we can also make

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<v Speaker 3>sure that we don't get the damage we've got in

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<v Speaker 3>cyclone Gabriel and damage we've got in Nelson and other

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<v Speaker 3>parts of New Zealand. I'm involved with a project called

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<v Speaker 3>rec Cloak and papatuar Nuku which pure advantage are not

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<v Speaker 3>for profit has been developing which is aiming to restore

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<v Speaker 3>two million hectas of native forest and wetland across New Zealand,

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<v Speaker 3>interwoven into our primary production landscapes and not replacing farming,

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<v Speaker 3>but part of farming. Are rewarded for looking after native

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<v Speaker 3>forests and establishing new native forests for all of those benefits,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, cultural biodiversity, resilience, carbon draw down and so forth.

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<v Speaker 2>Well that kind of sounds like a win win, doesn't it.

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<v Speaker 2>Why aren't we making So if I was a dairy farmer, say,

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<v Speaker 2>is there a way that so I've got my fifty cows?

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<v Speaker 2>Say I obviously have never visited a dairy farm, so

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know how many cows there are, But say

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<v Speaker 2>I've got fifty, probably.

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<v Speaker 3>A few more than fifty.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I then measure how much methane that they're producing

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<v Speaker 2>and then be like, right, it's this much. I need

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<v Speaker 2>to come up with a way to offset that on

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<v Speaker 2>my land, say with native forests and stuff, and then

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<v Speaker 2>kind of try and balance it out myself. Could I

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<v Speaker 2>essentially do that?

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely? Look, the science is very very easy to use.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we know how much methanea cow producers, so

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<v Speaker 3>you could do that definitely, and I must say some

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<v Speaker 3>of the innovative dairy farmers are actually putting that information

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<v Speaker 3>out there in the public. They are acknowledging how much

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<v Speaker 3>they produce them. You can do the math, and you

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<v Speaker 3>may not be able to do it on your land

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<v Speaker 3>because your dairy farm might be too small, but you

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<v Speaker 3>could work with says sheet and beef farmer and you

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<v Speaker 3>could do it in a collaborative way.

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<v Speaker 2>Why don't we make farmers do that?

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<v Speaker 3>Then it's a good question. The politics. Yeah, I don't

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<v Speaker 3>have the answer to that one.

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<v Speaker 2>I wouldn't mind my tax money going, you know, giving

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<v Speaker 2>a few bob to farmers to create native farmlands.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think, you know, I mean, I think there

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<v Speaker 3>are lots of avenues that we could fund it through.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's a lot of interest internationally in high

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<v Speaker 3>quality carbon and biodiversity credits, So people would be really interested,

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<v Speaker 3>I think in investing in New Zealand. We're a stable democracy,

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<v Speaker 3>We're a reliable country for that sort of work. But

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<v Speaker 3>farmers themselves, I mean, you know, they will at some

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<v Speaker 3>point need to offset their methane production so that the

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<v Speaker 3>incentive is for them to invest into their own land.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's building resilience in their land, and it's helping

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<v Speaker 3>make their land more stable. It's got other benefits out

0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 3>of it. I work with farmers dairy and she can

0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 3>be farmers helping them designeration programs for their farms so

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 3>they can bring back native forest. I mean, there are

0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.520
<v Speaker 3>really great people out there doing this already. We just

0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:17.080
<v Speaker 3>need the national policy signals of a place to make

0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>this reality. And I think for that we need to

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.520
<v Speaker 3>acknowledge that we are being impacted by climate change. We

0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:25.319
<v Speaker 3>need to acknowledge that we need to have a national

0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 3>resilience plan, of which, you know, putting native forests back

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 3>into landscapes as part of farming systems is a really

0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 3>sustainable long term outcome. Pine trees a short term They're

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 3>not doing anything for the future. Native forest, native wetlands

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 3>are bringing all these other values and bi diversity who

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.959
<v Speaker 3>we are as New Zealanders, you know, all these other

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:47.520
<v Speaker 3>values back into our landscapes.

0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:52.320
<v Speaker 1>Of the two hundred odd countries in the world today,

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 1>it looks like we are the only one it's carbon neutral.

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:02.560
<v Speaker 1>Actually that's not quite accurate. Batone is not carbon neutral.

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:11.240
<v Speaker 1>We're doone is carbon negative. Our entire country generates two

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>point two million tons of carbon dioxide, but a forest,

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 1>they see question more than three times at amount. So

0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 1>we are a net carbon zinc for more than four

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 1>million tons of carbon dioxide each year.

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.200
<v Speaker 2>What about if we look overseas, are there any other

0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:34.880
<v Speaker 2>countries that are focusing you know, not as much on forestry,

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 2>I suppose, but are there any good projects that we

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 2>should be really keeping an eye on.

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 3>There's a range of different initiatives being taken in different

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:47.840
<v Speaker 3>countries and different ways of incentidvising and encouraging people to

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 3>get involved in these sorts of projects. But I actually

0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.320
<v Speaker 3>believe that New Zealand has the opportunity to show other countries.

0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 3>So turning it around, we have the opportunity to show

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 3>other countries how we can do this sort of stuff.

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 3>We're a small country, we're innovative. We just need to

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 3>get out of this mindset at the moment of just

0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:07.440
<v Speaker 3>focusing on today and actually think about the future. And

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 3>we've got huge credibility, scientific background in this stuff. We

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.000
<v Speaker 3>know how to do it. We just need the political

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 3>will behind that to support it.

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 2>Do you think farming and forestry voices are equally represented?

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 3>It's interesting, you know, I hate to think what's going

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 3>on behind the closed doors in Wellington and who's influencing what.

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 3>What's not being represented is the voice of the environment,

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 3>and that's my real concern is that the environment has

0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.280
<v Speaker 3>not been listened to. I think I work with a

0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 3>lot of farmers, and my impression is that farmers are

0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.680
<v Speaker 3>really interested in looking after the land, are really interested

0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 3>in a sustainable outcome. They get the impact that climate

0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.960
<v Speaker 3>change has on their businesses on their land, and they're

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 3>in it for the long term. Farmers are in it

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 3>for the long term, and I think we just need

0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.000
<v Speaker 3>to have the right incentives there to help a system

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 3>with even those sorts of outcomes that I've talked about.

0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:06.240
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the Climate Change Commission last month warned that

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 2>while we're making progress and emissions are on track to

0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 2>meet the first budget that's twenty twenty two to twenty

0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.680
<v Speaker 2>twenty five, we still need to urgently do more work.

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.160
<v Speaker 2>At the rate we're going. Do you think that we're

0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:21.960
<v Speaker 2>going to meet our Paris climate commitments?

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 3>No? No, from everything I've seen, we're not. We're still

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 3>consuming too much, We're still using too much, We're still

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:34.040
<v Speaker 3>we're still living in today. We're not thinking about tomorrow,

0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.200
<v Speaker 3>and I think we're struggling, and I think relying on

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 3>offsetting with short lived pine trees is just a massive mistake.

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 3>It's just pushing the problem off.

0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 2>Has this latest move set us back a bit?

0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:46.840
<v Speaker 3>I think it's just simply carrying us down a I

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 3>think a Dedan street, and I think we need to,

0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 3>like Simon Upton said the Parliamentary Commission of the Environment said,

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 3>we need to radically overhaul the ets. We need to

0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:01.480
<v Speaker 3>shift fast growing exotics into the BID methane system, and

0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:05.440
<v Speaker 3>we need to start putting in place an approach that's

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 3>based around using native forest of long term enduring carbon

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 3>sequestration is going to be there forever of all of

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 3>the other benefits for the landscape, for people, for bid diversity,

0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:17.680
<v Speaker 3>But the government doesn't seem to be interested in that.

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.120
<v Speaker 3>And that's a real tragedy, I think, because the people

0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:21.320
<v Speaker 3>that are going to suffer are going to be the

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 3>next generation and the one after that and so on.

0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us, David, You're welcome, Thanks for inviting me.

0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.600
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.639
<v Speaker 2>at enzidherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is

0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:46.399
<v Speaker 2>produced by Ethan Sells and Richard Martin, who is also

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:51.080
<v Speaker 2>our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:54.800
<v Speaker 2>on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune

0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:58.160
<v Speaker 2>in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.