1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,520 Speaker 1: Now, the US market may be up almost sixteen percent 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: on the year, but get a load of this. Well 3 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: known household names like Nike and Lulu Lemon and Starbucks 4 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: had a much tougher time. The entire consumer discretionary sector 5 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: is up only four percent, with a growing number of 6 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: so called fallen angels. Stephanie Bachelor is from Milford Asset Management. Hey, Stephanie, Hi, Heather, 7 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 1: What exactly is a fallen angel? 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: So the term fallen angel was traditionally used to describe 9 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 2: a bond that used to be investment grade but has 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: since been reduced to essentially junk bond status, but you 11 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 2: can also apply it to stocks. A company that has 12 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: historically been seen as really high quality, usually with a 13 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: share price that continues to reach all time highs, but 14 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: has since fallen significantly and is now out of favor. 15 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: Was invested. 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: Okay, So I've listed a number there that that are 17 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 1: obviously examples. Why have they performed so poorly? 18 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: Yeah? So there are lots of examples. A couple that 19 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 2: you mentioned the ath leisure companies like Nike and Lululemon. 20 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: They've fallen significantly on concerns that they aren't innovating enough. 21 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: And losing market share to newer competitors. So from peak 22 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 2: to trough, Nike's share price has fallen about sixty percent 23 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,639 Speaker 2: and Lululemon's about fifty percent. Then in the beauty space, 24 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: este Lord is down about seventy five percent, primarily due 25 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: to very weak sales in China, and Starbucks is another 26 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: brand struggling in China and its share price had fallen 27 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 2: about forty percent. 28 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's quite astounding how big those falls are 29 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: given that they are household brands. What's next for these companies? 30 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: Now? 31 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: How do they get the investors to love them again? 32 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, So, usually we see one of two things. Either 33 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: an activist shareholder gets involved. These are investors that buy 34 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: a sizable stake in the company and then put pressure 35 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 2: on management to make changes. So a recent example of 36 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: this is Bill Ackman taking a stake in Nike. Or 37 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 2: CEOs leave or get replaced, and we saw a remarkable 38 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: share price reaction to one of these situations. Recently, it 39 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,639 Speaker 2: was announced that the CEO of Starbucks would be leaving 40 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: and would be replaced by the CEO of Chipotle. This's 41 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 2: the Mexican food chain that's done extremely well and so 42 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 2: on the day that this was announced, Starbucks shares went 43 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: up twenty five percent and CHIPOTLEO shares went down eight percent, 44 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 2: So that market move was effectively a twenty seven billion 45 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 2: dollar slap in the face for the Starbucks CEO and 46 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 2: a twenty seven billion dollar pad on the back of 47 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: the Chipotlo sea. 48 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: Interesting. Okay, so in Video right, this is something we've 49 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: been talking about just in the last few days. What's 50 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: going on here? And also is this an example potentially 51 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: of something that's becoming a fallen angel. 52 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 2: Yes, it's been a rocky few days for in Video. 53 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: Over four days of trading, shares are down about fifteen percent, 54 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: and that's wiped out about five hundred billion dollars of value. 55 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 2: That's almost the entire value of McDonald's, Disney, and Uber combined. 56 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 2: So it's a huge move. But shares are still up 57 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 2: about one hundred and twenty percent over the last year, 58 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: so certainly not a fallen angel. And there are a 59 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: few things behind this move. So it started at the 60 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: end of last week when in Video reported quarterly results. 61 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 2: It was a strong result, but shares actually fell six percent, 62 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 2: shows how stretched investor expectations had become. Apparently there were 63 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: even Bars in New York live streaming the result, So 64 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: that's almost the definition of a viral stock. And then overnight, 65 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 2: in Video was down another ten percent as part of 66 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 2: a broader stock market sell off which had a number 67 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: of factors at play, one of which was some weaker 68 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 2: manufacturing data that tapped into investor fears around a growth 69 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: slowdown in the US. And Nvidia actually fell a little 70 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: bit more after hours on some news that the DOJ 71 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 2: has issued a subpoena to in Vidia relating to an 72 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 2: anti trust investigation. So lot's going on. But the last 73 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: thing I'd call out is while the two percent moved 74 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: down in the S and P five hundred overnight is significant, 75 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 2: you have to put it into the context of the 76 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 2: increased market volatility that we saw in August, with big 77 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: swings both down and up. So last night's move is 78 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: really just a continuation of that volatility. 79 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: Stephanie, thank you. I really appreciate your time. That Stephanie Bachelor, 80 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: Milford Asset Management. For more from Heather Duplicylan Drive, listen 81 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: live to News Took said Be from four pm weekdays, 82 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.