WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #290 - June 25th 2025 - Ramesh Thakur 0:00:09.093 --> 0:00:11.973 You're listening to a podcast from news talks it B. 0:00:12.373 --> 0:00:16.173 Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.693 --> 0:00:19.733 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.773 --> 0:00:24.813 the information, all the debates of the now the Leighton 0:00:24.933 --> 0:00:27.653 Smith Podcast powered by news talks it B. 0:00:28.133 --> 0:00:31.893 Welcome to podcast two hundred and ninety for June twenty five, 0:00:32.053 --> 0:00:36.253 twenty twenty five. Ramesh the Kur has contributed to a 0:00:36.333 --> 0:00:40.533 number of podcasts, and with very good reason. A quick 0:00:40.613 --> 0:00:43.573 survey of his career tells you that and I have 0:00:43.613 --> 0:00:46.693 a great respect for his opinions. Now, we left recording 0:00:46.853 --> 0:00:50.493 the interview until the very last minute in order to 0:00:50.493 --> 0:00:53.413 be as up to date as possible. But first, there 0:00:53.453 --> 0:00:56.133 is one aspect that we can cover now. That is 0:00:56.173 --> 0:00:59.933 that the accusations that the military action taken by President 0:00:59.973 --> 0:01:05.453 Trump is illegal constitutionally so based on the need for 0:01:05.733 --> 0:01:09.373 a president to see congressional approval first. Now, while there's 0:01:09.813 --> 0:01:12.013 a little more to it than that, we don't need 0:01:12.053 --> 0:01:15.373 to dive into the minutia. Now, there are two articles 0:01:15.413 --> 0:01:19.213 I'll referred to, and each of them is independent of 0:01:19.253 --> 0:01:22.253 the other, but there is a bit of crossover as well. 0:01:22.773 --> 0:01:29.253 George Treatment published War and the Constitution on June twenty three, 0:01:29.493 --> 0:01:32.133 which would be June twenty four. Here, the US attack 0:01:32.173 --> 0:01:35.813 on Iran's nuclear facilities has raised an important constitutional issue. 0:01:36.093 --> 0:01:40.173 The US Constitution gives Congress the authority to declare war. 0:01:40.653 --> 0:01:43.893 It was a wise and appropriate principle. Wars that perhaps 0:01:43.973 --> 0:01:47.253 the most consequential actions a nation can take. They can 0:01:47.293 --> 0:01:50.493 put a nation's very survival at risk and endangered military 0:01:50.493 --> 0:01:55.173 and civilian lives. Wars also reshape the economy and must 0:01:55.213 --> 0:01:59.973 bind nature place some limits on citizens constitutional right to 0:02:00.053 --> 0:02:04.293 control government actions. Congress is designed to be the representative 0:02:04.413 --> 0:02:08.933 and guaranteur of the right of citizens to govern themselves. Therefore, 0:02:08.973 --> 0:02:12.333 the idea was that the US could not wage war 0:02:12.453 --> 0:02:15.933 without the consent of Congress, nor avoid war if Congress 0:02:16.013 --> 0:02:19.133 deemed it necessary. As commander in chief of the military, 0:02:19.173 --> 0:02:22.093 the President could decide how a war would be waged, 0:02:22.693 --> 0:02:26.133 but not whether there would be a war. The last 0:02:26.173 --> 0:02:28.973 time the United States followed the Constitution in going to 0:02:29.013 --> 0:02:33.253 war was in December nineteen forty one, after the Pearl 0:02:33.293 --> 0:02:36.413 Harbor attack. Now again then goes into quite a bit 0:02:36.453 --> 0:02:40.853 of history of how things have gone basically since then, 0:02:41.093 --> 0:02:44.533 but in referring to time the time factor, he says, 0:02:44.733 --> 0:02:47.413 But the nature of time and war has changed dramatically, 0:02:47.693 --> 0:02:51.093 especially over the last twenty years. A modern Pearl Harbor 0:02:51.213 --> 0:02:54.693 might defeat the US military in a few hours. Another 0:02:54.733 --> 0:02:59.893 critical change is in communication and transparency. A congressional debate 0:03:00.613 --> 0:03:03.773 over going to war in the eighteenth century could unfold 0:03:03.813 --> 0:03:06.653 without the knowledge of the would be adversary. Even if 0:03:06.653 --> 0:03:09.373 a spy were present, it would take substantial time to 0:03:09.413 --> 0:03:13.893 relay the information. Today, by contrast, congressional debates are by 0:03:14.013 --> 0:03:18.573 nature public. Even if a secret session were called, spies 0:03:18.613 --> 0:03:22.813 in Washington could immediately alert the target nation, introducing a 0:03:22.933 --> 0:03:26.773 danger of a preemptive strike on US forces. When you're 0:03:26.813 --> 0:03:30.133 getting the picture, but he gets more specific. A congressional 0:03:30.133 --> 0:03:33.173 debate over the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would have 0:03:33.293 --> 0:03:38.573 eliminated a fundamental necessity of war, that is, surprise. It 0:03:38.653 --> 0:03:44.413 would also undermine a fundamental element in diplomacy. This reality has, 0:03:44.493 --> 0:03:47.453 since the end of World War II, shifted the power 0:03:47.453 --> 0:03:52.013 to initiate war from Congress to the commander in chief. 0:03:52.533 --> 0:03:55.173 If war is imposed on the US, it must respond, 0:03:55.413 --> 0:03:58.613 long before Congress is convened to debate and vote on 0:03:58.653 --> 0:04:02.893 its response. If the US initiates war. Surprise is essential 0:04:02.933 --> 0:04:07.253 for success. Further on, former declarations of war have become 0:04:07.293 --> 0:04:10.853 globally obst elite. It talks about the last eighty years 0:04:10.893 --> 0:04:14.893 Congress has been sidelined not by conspiracy, but by the 0:04:14.933 --> 0:04:17.133 speed and complexity of modern warfare. 0:04:17.573 --> 0:04:18.773 And there's there's quite a. 0:04:18.773 --> 0:04:22.213 Bit more detail, including the nine to eleven attacks and examples. 0:04:22.813 --> 0:04:26.253 The critical argument here is that at this point in history, 0:04:26.413 --> 0:04:31.253 technology has rendered declarations of war obsolete. Checks and balances 0:04:31.413 --> 0:04:35.573 are the foundation of the Constitution's architecture, and war is 0:04:35.573 --> 0:04:38.493 the most serious of matters. This is not a matter 0:04:38.573 --> 0:04:42.933 of Republicans or Democrats, conservatives or liberals. Perhaps a new 0:04:43.013 --> 0:04:47.173 constitutional convention can solve this problem, but it is hard 0:04:47.253 --> 0:04:51.093 to imagine a solution. Let's not forget that George Friedman 0:04:51.373 --> 0:04:56.253 was a professor of war at the War College in 0:04:56.293 --> 0:04:58.373 Pennsylvania for a number of years. 0:04:59.213 --> 0:04:59.413 Now. 0:04:59.453 --> 0:05:03.053 There is a second opinion, and it's from somebody who 0:05:03.093 --> 0:05:06.813 I who I have great respect for also, and that 0:05:06.933 --> 0:05:09.973 is Jonathan Turley, who who is the Shapiro Professor of 0:05:09.973 --> 0:05:12.933 Public Interest Law at George Washington University. 0:05:13.453 --> 0:05:14.413 And the interesting thing. 0:05:14.293 --> 0:05:19.173 About Turley, he gives a great deal. He's called on 0:05:19.333 --> 0:05:26.373 by Congress to give opinions on a constant basis legal opinions, 0:05:26.693 --> 0:05:30.413 and he appears on Fox under similar terms. But the 0:05:30.453 --> 0:05:33.933 interesting thing is he is a registered Democrat, but he's 0:05:33.933 --> 0:05:36.653 not one of your left wing nutters, and there's more 0:05:36.653 --> 0:05:39.813 and more of those. So he wrote the Claude Reign's 0:05:40.013 --> 0:05:45.373 School of Constitutional Law. Democrats denounce s reigning and attackers unconstitutional, 0:05:46.253 --> 0:05:51.053 so said a minority leader, Chuck Schumer is particularly shocked. 0:05:51.173 --> 0:05:54.373 That's where the Claude Reigned School of Constitutional Law comes from, 0:05:54.373 --> 0:05:59.213 the movie where the word shocked was thrown about. Just 0:05:59.293 --> 0:06:02.293 in case you didn't know, Chuck Schumer is particularly shocked. 0:06:02.893 --> 0:06:06.813 Schumer insisted that no president should be allowed to unilaterally 0:06:06.893 --> 0:06:10.093 march this nation into something as consequential as war, with 0:06:10.293 --> 0:06:14.533 erratic threats and no strategy. Schumer is the same politician 0:06:15.373 --> 0:06:19.693 who was silent or supportive in earlier unilateral attacks by 0:06:19.733 --> 0:06:24.653 democratic presidents. In twenty eleven, Obama approved a massive military 0:06:24.653 --> 0:06:29.333 campaign against Libya. He says, I represented a bipartisan group 0:06:29.333 --> 0:06:34.253 of members of Congress challenging that action. We were unsuccessful, 0:06:34.973 --> 0:06:38.333 as were such prior challenges I have long criticized. He 0:06:38.333 --> 0:06:40.853 goes on the abandonment of the clear language of the 0:06:40.893 --> 0:06:45.373 Constitution on the declaration of wars. Only eleven such declarations 0:06:45.373 --> 0:06:47.893 have been made in our history. This has not happened 0:06:47.893 --> 0:06:51.693 since World War II in nineteen forty two. Over one 0:06:51.813 --> 0:06:55.693 hundred and twenty five military campaigns have spanned from Korea 0:06:55.893 --> 0:07:00.853 to Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. It is not a rule 0:07:01.093 --> 0:07:04.853 honored solely in the breach. By the way, Hillary clipp 0:07:04.973 --> 0:07:09.093 was also involved in one such action. The War Powers 0:07:09.173 --> 0:07:13.813 Act has always been controversial and largely ineffectual. Presidents have 0:07:13.893 --> 0:07:18.453 long asserted the inherent power to conduct such attacks under 0:07:18.493 --> 0:07:22.813 their Article I authority as the designated Commander in Chief 0:07:22.933 --> 0:07:26.253 of the Armed Forces. The WPA, which is the War 0:07:26.413 --> 0:07:29.493 Powers Act, bars the use of armed forces in such 0:07:29.493 --> 0:07:32.933 a conflict for more than sixty days without congressional authorization 0:07:33.853 --> 0:07:37.653 for use of military force or a declaration of war 0:07:37.693 --> 0:07:41.013 by the United States. There is a further thirty day 0:07:41.053 --> 0:07:44.733 withdrawal period, and it gets very complicated with different days 0:07:44.733 --> 0:07:48.333 for different things from what have you. Obama also defied 0:07:48.373 --> 0:07:52.773 the War Powers Resolution on Syria. He actually did ask 0:07:52.853 --> 0:07:57.493 for congressional authorization to take military action in that country 0:07:57.573 --> 0:08:00.573 in twenty thirteen. Let me just repeat that for emphasis. 0:08:01.013 --> 0:08:05.013 He actually did ask for congressional authorization to take military 0:08:05.053 --> 0:08:09.213 action in that country in twenty thirteen, but Congress refused 0:08:09.333 --> 0:08:10.013 to approve it. 0:08:10.693 --> 0:08:11.413 So what happened? 0:08:12.213 --> 0:08:18.773 He did it anyway, despite Congress especially denying authorization. Despite 0:08:18.813 --> 0:08:24.413 Congress expressly denying authorization for the introduction of US armed forces. 0:08:24.773 --> 0:08:28.773 Both Obama and Trump did precisely that. Trump was wise 0:08:28.853 --> 0:08:32.533 though to notify Congress. However, what occurs after that is 0:08:32.773 --> 0:08:37.733 anyone's guess. What remains has been little more than political 0:08:37.773 --> 0:08:43.173 theater and one more paragraph toward the end. In the meantime, 0:08:43.973 --> 0:08:47.573 the calls for impeachment are absurd given the prior actions 0:08:47.573 --> 0:08:52.493 of presidents in using this very authority. Once again, some 0:08:52.653 --> 0:08:55.533 Democrats appear intent on applying a different set of rules 0:08:55.533 --> 0:08:59.453 for impeaching Trump than any of his predecessors. Trump can 0:08:59.573 --> 0:09:03.893 cite both history and case law in allowing presidents to 0:09:03.933 --> 0:09:07.933 take such actions. At most, the line over war powers 0:09:08.053 --> 0:09:11.413 is tury. The Framers wanted impeachments to be based on 0:09:11.813 --> 0:09:16.653 brightline rules in establishing high crimes and misdemeanors. This is 0:09:16.733 --> 0:09:20.133 all part of the claud Rain's School of constitutional law. 0:09:20.813 --> 0:09:24.613 Members will once again express their shock and disgust in 0:09:24.653 --> 0:09:27.333 the use of the same authority that they once accepted 0:09:27.573 --> 0:09:30.533 in prior Presidents Trump has a great number of risks 0:09:30.573 --> 0:09:34.893 in this action from global military and economic consequences. The 0:09:34.933 --> 0:09:38.613 War Powers Act is not one of them, if history 0:09:38.693 --> 0:09:41.853 is any measure. So that's where we'll leave it, and 0:09:41.933 --> 0:09:58.173 after a short break, Ramesh. Thekur Buckerlan is a natural 0:09:58.413 --> 0:10:02.373 oral vaccine in a tabletorm called bacterial i sate. It'll 0:10:02.373 --> 0:10:05.973 boost your natural protection against bacterial infections in your chest 0:10:06.053 --> 0:10:09.253 and throat. A three day course of van Buckeland tablets 0:10:09.293 --> 0:10:11.493 will help your body build up to three months of 0:10:11.573 --> 0:10:16.373 immunity against bugs which cause bacterial cold symptoms. So who 0:10:16.373 --> 0:10:19.213 can take bucolan well, the whole family from two years 0:10:19.213 --> 0:10:22.413 of age and upwards. A course of Buckelan tablets offers 0:10:22.493 --> 0:10:26.133 cost effective and safe protection from colds and chills. Protection 0:10:26.253 --> 0:10:29.733 becomes effective a few days after you take buccolan and 0:10:29.893 --> 0:10:32.653 lasts for up to three months following the three day course. 0:10:33.213 --> 0:10:35.933 Buccolan can be taken throughout the cold season, over winter 0:10:36.253 --> 0:10:39.453 or all year round. And remember Buckelan is not intended 0:10:39.493 --> 0:10:43.213 as an alternative to influenza vaccination, but may be used 0:10:43.253 --> 0:10:47.013 along with the flu vaccination for added protection. And keep 0:10:47.013 --> 0:10:49.573 in mind that millions of doses have been taken by 0:10:49.653 --> 0:10:53.453 Kiwis for over fifty years. Only available from your pharmacist. 0:10:53.733 --> 0:10:57.093 Always read the label and users directed, and see your 0:10:57.093 --> 0:11:00.373 doctor if systems persist. Farmer Broker Auckland. 0:11:08.693 --> 0:11:09.053 LATM. 0:11:09.093 --> 0:11:12.293 Smith rames the Kur it's great to have you back 0:11:12.293 --> 0:11:15.253 on the podcast, albeit that the subject matter is a 0:11:15.293 --> 0:11:16.253 little disturbing. 0:11:16.333 --> 0:11:19.413 I trust you well, well, thank you. I hope you're 0:11:19.413 --> 0:11:19.813 will too. 0:11:20.013 --> 0:11:24.253 Indeed, I want to start in a different sort of 0:11:24.293 --> 0:11:28.813 way on this occasion. I received this email this morning, 0:11:28.853 --> 0:11:31.013 which is why it's not in our mail room later on, 0:11:31.813 --> 0:11:34.173 and I thought it wasn't a bad way to start, 0:11:34.893 --> 0:11:39.933 this author inquires. He says, on the subject of Iran, 0:11:40.133 --> 0:11:43.093 I have a couple of questions I haven't heard being asked, 0:11:44.013 --> 0:11:49.573 why does an oil rich country need nuclear power? And 0:11:49.693 --> 0:11:52.253 if he ran second question, if I Run has enriched 0:11:52.373 --> 0:11:56.173 uranium to sixty percent, have they even started building the 0:11:56.253 --> 0:11:59.493 nuclear power plant yet or are they just focusing on 0:11:59.773 --> 0:12:05.893 an enrichment program. Now, with your background and experience with 0:12:06.013 --> 0:12:09.813 nuclear matters, I'm guessing that you're in a position to 0:12:10.213 --> 0:12:12.773 comment on that, we'll get onto your background shortly. 0:12:14.333 --> 0:12:18.733 Sure, on the first question, why does it need nuclear 0:12:18.933 --> 0:12:23.773 power for energy if it has such vast oil reserves, 0:12:24.213 --> 0:12:27.893 I think the answer would be two fuld to that. Firstly, 0:12:29.133 --> 0:12:33.653 it's always a sensible policy for any country to aim 0:12:33.733 --> 0:12:38.733 for energy security by a mix of different sources of energy, 0:12:39.813 --> 0:12:43.493 and nuclear if you can afford it and have the 0:12:43.493 --> 0:12:48.773 technical means, plays an important part for pretty much every country, 0:12:48.813 --> 0:12:53.893 except for self destructive limitations by Australia, where we have 0:12:54.173 --> 0:12:58.413 one third of the world's known uranium reserves, are happy 0:12:58.453 --> 0:13:00.493 to export it to mind it and export it to 0:13:00.533 --> 0:13:06.933 other countries for economic reasons, but by law prohibited for ourselves. 0:13:07.013 --> 0:13:12.053 So that's the first part. The second part, of course, 0:13:12.173 --> 0:13:21.693 is nuclear is indeed the most green emission friendly sort 0:13:21.733 --> 0:13:26.573 of energy we have in terms of its contributions which 0:13:26.613 --> 0:13:32.173 are minimal, and it's it's essentially very safe, it's reliable, 0:13:32.733 --> 0:13:37.653 it doesn't involve additional transmission lines and all that can 0:13:37.653 --> 0:13:42.933 be tailored to existing grid and provides based load power, 0:13:43.013 --> 0:13:46.133 so I think there are good reasons for that. However, 0:13:46.253 --> 0:13:49.293 this is where you get into the second question. I'm 0:13:49.333 --> 0:13:53.053 not sure that Iran has actually and I know it 0:13:53.053 --> 0:13:56.933 as research reactors, research reactors. I don't know if it 0:13:57.013 --> 0:13:59.933 has nuclear power plants or not. But that's in a 0:13:59.973 --> 0:14:04.453 sense irrelevant because to get nuclear energy as a source 0:14:04.493 --> 0:14:09.693 of power, you do not need to get beyond a 0:14:09.733 --> 0:14:17.093 five percent enrichment at the most. The Iranians have been 0:14:17.173 --> 0:14:21.733 enriching up to sixty percent. Now that's slightly misleading, because 0:14:21.733 --> 0:14:25.413 what you have is if you take the benchmark of 0:14:25.453 --> 0:14:29.293 the now abandoned twenty fifteen nuclear deal with their arm 0:14:29.613 --> 0:14:32.773 they were limited to three point six seven percent enrichment, 0:14:33.453 --> 0:14:38.533 which has no militarily sensitive implications whatsoever for weapons production. 0:14:40.253 --> 0:14:43.133 To get to weapons grade, you need to enrich to 0:14:43.293 --> 0:14:47.813 ninety percent. Now. The reason that is completely misleading is 0:14:48.493 --> 0:14:51.253 it's not a linear progression in terms of the technical 0:14:51.333 --> 0:14:55.813 challenges to go from five percent to ninety percent. Once 0:14:55.893 --> 0:14:59.293 you cross five percent, and once you've got to twenty percent, 0:15:00.213 --> 0:15:04.693 you have effectively overcome all the technical challenges, and then 0:15:04.733 --> 0:15:08.173 it becomes a matter just of keeping on spinning the 0:15:08.413 --> 0:15:13.493 centrifugures to purify the uranium. More and more so as 0:15:13.533 --> 0:15:17.933 you separate what's called you two thirty eight and collect 0:15:17.973 --> 0:15:19.693 you two thirty five, which is what you need to 0:15:19.733 --> 0:15:23.453 make bombs, and so that's a matter of time rather 0:15:23.493 --> 0:15:27.813 than any technical challenges remaining. So at sixty percent enrichment, 0:15:28.533 --> 0:15:30.973 let me put it this way, you are effectively at 0:15:31.093 --> 0:15:35.773 ninety nine percent weapon grade achievement already with your purification. 0:15:36.453 --> 0:15:39.453 And that's why that is a concern. And no other 0:15:39.533 --> 0:15:46.053 country has even tried or is engaged in this level 0:15:46.093 --> 0:15:50.973 of purification for the purposes of getting energy. It doesn't 0:15:50.973 --> 0:15:55.973 make any sense. So clearly the intent was to achieve 0:15:56.013 --> 0:16:01.533 the capability. Having said that, we have to be very 0:16:01.573 --> 0:16:05.133 clear and careful. Then in the last few days with 0:16:05.253 --> 0:16:07.893 the strikes, there's been a lot of and you'll have 0:16:07.933 --> 0:16:11.813 seen the reports on how Trump said that his Director 0:16:11.853 --> 0:16:15.373 of National Intelligence, toul Sie Gabbard, essentially didn't know what 0:16:15.373 --> 0:16:17.893 she was talking about, and she's wrong when she says 0:16:18.693 --> 0:16:21.973 they are not weaponizing. I went back and checked on 0:16:22.013 --> 0:16:26.733 her actual statement, and the intelligence community assessment on which 0:16:26.773 --> 0:16:30.573 there is consensus across the fifteen or sixteen different agencies, 0:16:31.133 --> 0:16:35.733 is quite clear cut. One Iran has not in fact 0:16:36.253 --> 0:16:41.773 authorized the making of weapons. Two that said, they have 0:16:42.013 --> 0:16:47.413 since the deal collapsed in twenty eighteen, broken free of 0:16:47.453 --> 0:16:51.493 the constraints to the deal, and been engaged in expanding 0:16:51.533 --> 0:16:55.813 the number of centrifugears, in increasing the purity of enrichment 0:16:55.893 --> 0:16:59.573 all the way to sixty percent, in acquiring stockpile, in 0:16:59.733 --> 0:17:03.093 upgrading the quality of centrifugures from the first generation to 0:17:03.093 --> 0:17:06.533 which they limited to my advanced centrifugures. And none of 0:17:06.573 --> 0:17:11.773 this makes any sense than as an an intent to 0:17:11.893 --> 0:17:16.733 acquire the technical capability to proceed to rapid warm making 0:17:17.613 --> 0:17:21.373 if and when the political authorities in charge direct them 0:17:21.373 --> 0:17:23.493 to do so. So it's the two part thing there. 0:17:23.733 --> 0:17:28.213 They were rapidly advancing to acquire the capability the materials, 0:17:28.413 --> 0:17:32.333 building infrastructure, but there's no indication to suggest that they 0:17:32.373 --> 0:17:36.733 had actually decided to cross that threshold, and not the 0:17:36.853 --> 0:17:41.533 least because I suspect they wanted to avoid provoking precisely 0:17:41.813 --> 0:17:44.573 this sort of military strikes. Okay, it's slightly complex, but 0:17:44.653 --> 0:17:45.813 that's where it stood, all right. 0:17:46.253 --> 0:17:50.733 So that gives rise to another question, how long would 0:17:50.773 --> 0:17:53.973 it take to get the sixty percent to weapons grade 0:17:54.093 --> 0:17:57.373 proper and utilize it. 0:17:57.493 --> 0:18:00.693 That's a very interesting question. You get different answers to that, 0:18:01.813 --> 0:18:04.973 but I think there is consensus that that becomes a 0:18:04.973 --> 0:18:09.373 matter of weeks rather than months. It might be a 0:18:09.373 --> 0:18:11.653 good point to go back to the twenty fifteen nuclear deal. 0:18:12.973 --> 0:18:16.893 What had happened was, I think it is a good 0:18:16.933 --> 0:18:20.293 starting point. Let's put this way between two thousand and three, 0:18:20.373 --> 0:18:24.133 so that's the Iraq War and twenty thirteen when you 0:18:24.173 --> 0:18:27.893 had the interim deal with Iran. In that period, the 0:18:28.013 --> 0:18:32.973 number of centrifugures that Iran had multiplied from one hundred 0:18:33.053 --> 0:18:38.773 and sixty three to nineteen thousand. Okay, this is under sanctions. 0:18:38.933 --> 0:18:46.493 Before the deal of the nineteen thousand, around eleven thousand 0:18:46.613 --> 0:18:50.533 were installed but not in operation, and around six seven 0:18:50.573 --> 0:18:53.813 thousand whatever eleven and a half to seven and a 0:18:53.853 --> 0:19:01.453 half were actually being operated. The deal got the numbers 0:19:01.493 --> 0:19:05.693 of installed centrifugures by two thirds from nineteen thousand to 0:19:05.893 --> 0:19:10.573 six thousand something, and the number of centrifugures in operation 0:19:10.733 --> 0:19:16.253 cut it down to half to five four thousand, five 0:19:16.293 --> 0:19:21.373 thousand something like that. From memory. More importantly, the stockpile 0:19:21.453 --> 0:19:25.853 of envesed uranium at five percent purity or between five 0:19:25.853 --> 0:19:30.733 and twenty percent from memory was cut by ninety eight percent, 0:19:31.933 --> 0:19:36.373 from ten thousand prologram to three hundred kilograms. The Iraq 0:19:36.453 --> 0:19:39.253 heavy reactive plant that was making usonium, which is the 0:19:39.253 --> 0:19:41.693 second part of way to the bomb, that was closed 0:19:41.693 --> 0:19:50.813 down entirely, the dismantled and separated fuel. The instructure touched 0:19:50.813 --> 0:19:55.893 in infrastructure in other words, was put under international IAEA inspection. 0:19:56.733 --> 0:20:03.413 IAEA inspectors were given unprecedented access for inspection, which could 0:20:03.453 --> 0:20:07.253 be delayed via a small amount, but not indefinitely postponed 0:20:07.253 --> 0:20:10.613 because there was but appeal procedures in place for that 0:20:10.653 --> 0:20:15.533 as well. And the IAEA also put on electronic oxy 0:20:15.573 --> 0:20:19.573 to monitor that the facilities that were under safe storage 0:20:19.773 --> 0:20:22.653 were not in fact being breached. So there was an 0:20:22.693 --> 0:20:28.213 effective dismantlement control inspection region put in place, and the 0:20:28.293 --> 0:20:34.653 goal was essentially to widen to lend in the timeline 0:20:35.413 --> 0:20:40.453 from detection to the capacity to acquire weapons if a 0:20:40.533 --> 0:20:44.413 decision was made to cross, and that changed from a 0:20:44.453 --> 0:20:47.373 matter of weeks or months to at least one year 0:20:48.093 --> 0:20:52.173 during which you could do things in response. Since then 0:20:52.333 --> 0:20:57.733 they have acquired more enriched material uranium. They have installed 0:20:57.773 --> 0:21:01.853 more advanced centrifuges distributed between four THOUGH and the Tance, 0:21:02.853 --> 0:21:05.053 mostly in four THO, but some also in the TANS, 0:21:05.653 --> 0:21:09.213 and they built up the nuclear Science Center in Isfahan, 0:21:09.453 --> 0:21:13.453 particularly with Chani's help. So we believe that the capacity 0:21:14.133 --> 0:21:17.853 has reduced to the timeline to a matter of weeks, 0:21:18.613 --> 0:21:22.253 maybe three weeks, maybe just over a month, but not 0:21:22.333 --> 0:21:26.413 much longer than that. And after the strikes this has 0:21:26.493 --> 0:21:30.373 lended again possibly two one to two years, but had 0:21:30.413 --> 0:21:33.773 not been eliminated, and that was the concern that they 0:21:33.813 --> 0:21:38.493 wanted to degrade its capability, so that we the outside 0:21:38.493 --> 0:21:41.613 of the international community, and particularly Israel because it's the 0:21:41.613 --> 0:21:45.213 most exposed to this, had time to react to that, 0:21:45.773 --> 0:21:48.893 and that's again where we think things stand at the moment. 0:21:50.693 --> 0:21:55.133 To be clear, for the have been attacked by the 0:21:55.173 --> 0:21:59.813 so called MOP, the massive ordnance penetrator, the GBU fifty 0:21:59.853 --> 0:22:03.013 seven is a technical name, which is a thirteen thousand 0:22:03.093 --> 0:22:05.693 or thirteen and a half thousand kilogram bomb with the 0:22:05.693 --> 0:22:09.093 biggest ordinance we have in the world. It's been used 0:22:09.093 --> 0:22:11.853 by the way previously they used in Afghanistan a smaller 0:22:11.933 --> 0:22:14.813 version of that. I forget what it's called GVU forty 0:22:14.813 --> 0:22:17.053 three or something. So this is the first time it's 0:22:17.093 --> 0:22:20.653 been used and it's been successful, but it will take 0:22:20.693 --> 0:22:28.213 time to assess the damage with any reliability, and they 0:22:28.213 --> 0:22:32.373 had sufficient advance warning that we have good reason to 0:22:32.413 --> 0:22:36.853 believe that most of the material in which uranium and 0:22:36.893 --> 0:22:41.253 the tooling require the infrastructure was in fact moved out 0:22:41.893 --> 0:22:46.133 Furdo and taken somewhere else. They're called that. I think 0:22:46.133 --> 0:22:49.493 they're talking about another mountain fortress called Pickaxe or something 0:22:50.413 --> 0:22:53.533 which people have suspected but not known about before this. 0:22:54.173 --> 0:22:57.733 So the capability has been, as I said, severely degraded, 0:22:58.813 --> 0:23:02.693 but Iran has retained the capacity to reconstitute the program. 0:23:03.613 --> 0:23:12.133 The regime is still intact, it's not been toppled. And Iran, 0:23:14.533 --> 0:23:19.373 I think, was so badly weakened that his response to 0:23:19.413 --> 0:23:22.853 the US strikes was symbolic more than substantives. And they 0:23:22.853 --> 0:23:24.893 gave advance war in the Americans that they were willing 0:23:24.973 --> 0:23:28.813 to hit their base in Qatar. So all the signs 0:23:28.853 --> 0:23:32.813 are that Iran was desperate to take a face saving 0:23:32.893 --> 0:23:37.653 off ramp, which they have taken. We know that this 0:23:38.533 --> 0:23:43.573 strike on Iran using American military capability and technical capability 0:23:44.333 --> 0:23:47.893 has been the goal and ambition of a Prime Minister 0:23:47.973 --> 0:23:50.573 nad and Yahoo for over a decade to before the 0:23:50.653 --> 0:23:53.613 Iran dealing in twenty fifteen. Left alone. The Hamas attack 0:23:53.893 --> 0:23:57.093 in Clover twenty twenty three. And in a sense you 0:23:57.133 --> 0:24:01.293 could argue that they have succeeded in maneuvering on manipulating 0:24:01.333 --> 0:24:06.893 Trump into doing their job for them, Hence the F 0:24:07.013 --> 0:24:10.533 bomb word by Trump, but his frustration when the ceasefire 0:24:10.573 --> 0:24:13.693 began to be violated Toby both sides, and he just 0:24:13.973 --> 0:24:20.933 blew up in exasperation. So surprisingly, Trump has been more 0:24:20.973 --> 0:24:27.293 effective than any predecessor, both hitting, hitting hard, restoring the 0:24:27.333 --> 0:24:32.813 credibility of American deterrence if you like, and yet at 0:24:32.813 --> 0:24:37.533 the same time, so far at least limiting his involvement 0:24:38.093 --> 0:24:40.773 to what he wanted to do in time and in targets. 0:24:41.133 --> 0:24:43.253 They didn't hit all the targets that they could have. 0:24:43.933 --> 0:24:48.893 They haven't destroyed Iran's capacity to export oil, and they've 0:24:48.933 --> 0:24:52.813 given them ways out provided they don't actually start weaponizing 0:24:53.013 --> 0:24:57.253 and reconstituting it Israel wanted. More So, Trump has been 0:24:57.373 --> 0:25:03.693 just as exasperated at Israel. So there's some signs that 0:25:04.573 --> 0:25:08.013 Trump doesn't deserve more credit than perhaps he's been given. 0:25:09.213 --> 0:25:12.293 He's made it difficult for the Democrats domestically to really 0:25:12.333 --> 0:25:16.933 criticize him on this. Nonetheless, I think you know, if 0:25:16.933 --> 0:25:19.013 you're dealing with the Middle East, the ghosts of history 0:25:19.053 --> 0:25:22.133 are very prominent, and we need to be a bit 0:25:22.213 --> 0:25:28.493 careful of the sohol law of unintended and particularly perverse consequences. 0:25:28.693 --> 0:25:34.133 Let's get onto that shortly. Was Trump overreaching when he 0:25:34.173 --> 0:25:43.053 made the announcement of the the bombings initially overreaching in 0:25:43.133 --> 0:25:46.413 what sense in that had had completely wiped out? 0:25:47.773 --> 0:25:50.493 Yes, I don't think there's evidence to back that up. 0:25:50.533 --> 0:25:56.933 But I mean, Trump is Trump. We know he's moombastic. 0:25:57.013 --> 0:26:00.173 He you know, any deal he's done is never been 0:26:00.213 --> 0:26:02.653 a deal like that in history et cetera, et cetera, 0:26:02.773 --> 0:26:06.213 and stuff like that, and certainly in the American system. 0:26:06.253 --> 0:26:10.693 I think people discount the element of Nonetheless, the substance 0:26:10.693 --> 0:26:14.813 of his claim is correct. He acted decisively, he gave 0:26:14.893 --> 0:26:19.693 them time to So, you know, one of the good 0:26:19.773 --> 0:26:23.133 things about what Trump has done we haven't seen any 0:26:23.173 --> 0:26:30.173 evidence of significant, if any, civilian casualties. So what he 0:26:30.253 --> 0:26:35.173 did was a mix of strikes using deception, a misdirection 0:26:35.253 --> 0:26:38.013 in terms of timing and calendar decoy is being sent 0:26:38.093 --> 0:26:40.453 over Hawaii when in fact the direction of the travelers 0:26:40.453 --> 0:26:43.453 the other way around, A mix of the what I 0:26:43.453 --> 0:26:46.933 think there was seven B two planes involved the two 0:26:47.013 --> 0:26:51.733 bombs eats, so fourteen of these mops, the GBU fifty 0:26:51.733 --> 0:26:59.573 seven plus Tomahawk missiles fired from c essentially at Isfahan facilities, 0:26:59.613 --> 0:27:05.133 the scientific infrastructure, and then saying we're not going to 0:27:05.173 --> 0:27:10.533 do anymore unless you choose to escalate. The fear of 0:27:10.693 --> 0:27:16.453 attritional escalation for the moment has abated. It's controlled and 0:27:16.573 --> 0:27:20.613 managed escalation where they have demonstrated both the intent and 0:27:20.653 --> 0:27:25.333 the capability. Helped im miserably by the fact that the 0:27:25.453 --> 0:27:29.613 air differences and the missile launches were totally destroyed and 0:27:29.653 --> 0:27:34.413 degraded by Israel in the two weeks leading up to 0:27:34.453 --> 0:27:38.413 the US attack, and the fact that, as I said, 0:27:38.453 --> 0:27:46.293 Iran's retaliation was limited and signaled in advanced The underlying, 0:27:46.573 --> 0:27:51.373 more important and more crucial strategic signaling is we don't 0:27:51.413 --> 0:27:57.813 wish to escalate. We accept what you have done, and okay, 0:27:57.853 --> 0:27:59.773 it's a defeat for us, it's a meliation for us, 0:27:59.773 --> 0:28:02.573 but we retain the capability, and that gives a sufficient 0:28:03.773 --> 0:28:06.893 face that we can accept it. That seems to me 0:28:07.893 --> 0:28:11.933 to be the condition at the moment. One other thing, 0:28:13.653 --> 0:28:17.613 I think the most important recent example of this law 0:28:17.813 --> 0:28:23.253