1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,759 Speaker 1: No, Welcome to the program and New Zealand herold's Business 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: editor at large Liam Dan. Hello, Liam, how are you today? Sorry? 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: Is your microphone working? It is hearing me? Now? Absolutely? 4 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: Well done? Right, we've got fresh unemployment data. Now there's 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: a difference between so I should say data. There's a 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: difference between employment data and unemployment data, isn't there? 7 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, we get both next week. We find out how 8 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 2: many jobs we've created in this economy and how many 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: have disappeared I guess, or how many people have joined 10 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: the dolk you would be the the local way of 11 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 2: putting it. 12 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: And there's things like participations. We talk about participation in 13 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: the world. 14 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 2: It's just a rate participation rate. We find out about 15 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: whether people are under employed, so whether you know, people 16 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 2: are working part time but wanting to work more so 17 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 2: you know, whether so they might not counter as unemployed, 18 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 2: but they may not be getting the hours of work 19 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 2: that they want. And so that's you know, doing it 20 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: tough as well. 21 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: And all of this has explained in Liam Dan's marvelous 22 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: book or Barbecue. 23 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: Yeah you know what, which I can give it a plug. 24 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 1: So we got fresh unemployment data next week and in 25 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: a strange world, economists are hoping that we have higher unemployment. 26 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, what we expect it is going higher. It's just 27 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 2: a weird scenario. We're sort of cheering on a higher 28 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: than expected unemployment rates. So the reserve banks is four 29 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 2: point six. If it's higher than that, that's bad. It's 30 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 2: bad for the people who lost their job. But it 31 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: means that the reserve Bank's more likely to put our 32 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: interest rates down, so that's good. Yeah, yeah, that's right. 33 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 2: And same would go for wage data, which we get 34 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: next week as well. So you know, if it shows 35 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: that we're still collectively getting decent wage rises, that's bad news. Weirdly, 36 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,199 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, you can never It doesn't 37 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 2: feel right to ever be cheering higher unemployment. But when 38 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: you look at what's expected through this whole cycle is 39 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: that unemployment will rise to about five point five percent, 40 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: it'd be nice if it came in below that. So 41 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 2: I'm still cheering for it to come in below that. 42 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: But if it's going to do that, we need to 43 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: see interest rates come down and the economy perk up. 44 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: So maybe it's better to have a little bit of 45 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: a shock in advance. 46 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: But you know, wage rises, what on earth are they 47 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm hearing from all sorts of sectors that 48 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 1: people are getting a bit more money, obviously, but when 49 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: you consider the level of inflation that has occurred over 50 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: the last two to three years, when they look at 51 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: the real terms of their reward, is that they're getting 52 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: paid less than were paid three years ago in real terms. 53 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: Well, I've actually looked at that pretty closely too. It's 54 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 2: quite odd. The wage, the hourly wage growth that they 55 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: measure it has kind of kept up with inflation on 56 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 2: an aggregate level. So you've got even you know, you 57 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 2: wouldn't even if you don't use CPI, if you include 58 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: interest rates and you look at the household living costs, 59 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 2: they've gone up about twenty three percent or so, and 60 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,839 Speaker 2: so pretty much have wages, you know, across the time 61 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 2: since the beginning of the pandemic, which makes me wonder 62 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: what's going on, because I sure don't know many people 63 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 2: like you say that, you don't know many people who 64 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 2: have seen their wages go up that much. 65 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: I'm in an industry where there's a lot of fixed 66 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: term contracts, you know, so there's no adjustment for CPI 67 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 1: and that so. 68 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 2: All that sort of stuff, I think younger people have 69 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 2: had more jo mobility, so that does those figures do 70 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 2: capture people getting promotions, shifting jobs, and getting better paying jobs, 71 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: and so that probably is something that younger people have 72 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 2: been able to take advantage of up until this point 73 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: where unemployment is rising. US oldies stuck in our long 74 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: term jobs probably just relying on okay, what we get 75 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 2: from this. 76 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: So this week we are hoping for a little bit 77 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: more unemployment and a little less wage growth. How weird? 78 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 2: Weird? 79 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you so much. Well off to the country 80 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: in a few moments. 81 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 2: Start for more from hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live 82 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 2: to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or 83 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.