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Speaker 1: Time for Milford Asset Management. Andrew Kurtain, Hello, Andrew, I

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Speaker 1: love it well, thank you. So how the global markets

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Speaker 1: reacting to this conflict between Israel and Iran.

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Speaker 2: The markets have really shrugged it off of only seeing

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Speaker 2: equity markets come off very marginally. The US DOOT markets

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Speaker 2: down around about one percent since the conflict began last Friday.

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Speaker 2: So Marc's really telling you that I think this conflict

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Speaker 2: at the moment's pretty contained to Israel in Iran and

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Speaker 2: they're not getting too spooked about it. We have seen

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Speaker 2: a little bit of movement to safety. Some investors have

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Speaker 2: been buying gold golds up to a three percent since

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Speaker 2: the conflict started, But really where the most action has

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Speaker 2: been is in oil. Price is up about sixteen percent

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Speaker 2: since the conflict started, and go back and started June

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Speaker 2: it's up about twenty three percent. Now, this sort of

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Speaker 2: makes sense because Iran produces around about three percent of

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Speaker 2: the world's oil uptop, which doesn't sound like a lot,

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Speaker 2: but in a commodity like oil, we even sort of

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Speaker 2: a one percent destruction to oil production can have quite

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Speaker 2: a significant impact on price.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it'll go higher yet?

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Speaker 2: It's hard to tell what would send the price higher

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Speaker 2: would be direct attacks into major oil infrastructure. We haven't

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Speaker 2: seen that. There's been a few a few sort of

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Speaker 2: missiles that have hit some smaller pieces of infrastructure, but

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen anything that is really going to disrupt

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Speaker 2: kind of million barrel type levels of production. What could

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Speaker 2: happen if things escalators Iran deicide to say, attack some

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Speaker 2: oil assets in Saudi Arabia, which produces round about nine

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Speaker 2: attem percent of the world's oil, or in a major escalation,

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Speaker 2: they can they can shut up or start attacking cruise

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Speaker 2: ships in austraightup for most which is to the south

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Speaker 2: side of Iran, which a round about twenty percent of

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Speaker 2: the world's oil passes through this. But I sort of

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Speaker 2: put that as an unlikely scenario. I think if I

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Speaker 2: run to this would really attagonize the US. You need

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Speaker 2: to remember that Trump wants lower oil prices, not higher,

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Speaker 2: So if you want a certain way to bring us

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Speaker 2: into the war, then you could go first to other

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Speaker 2: technique Arabian oil accent.

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Speaker 1: Very good point. Now, given everything that's going on, why

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Speaker 1: do you think it is that most global stock markets

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Speaker 1: have recovered from the low that we saw in.

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Speaker 2: April well with a conflict in Middle East. It's really

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Speaker 2: only impacting right now the countries that are involved. It's

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Speaker 2: not really having an impact on the economic outlook for

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Speaker 2: the US, for Europe. When New Zealand, Australia and so

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Speaker 2: sheer markets really care about what happened in economies where

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Speaker 2: their companies primarily operate, and it's the economic growth in

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Speaker 2: these companies and these economies as fine, and the profit

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Speaker 2: growth in the companies in these countries will also be fine.

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Speaker 2: And so that's what I'm just as a treason. This

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Speaker 2: is sort of a relatively contained conflict for now, and

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Speaker 2: a few sort of stepped back a couple of months

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Speaker 2: since the equity market's bottomed back in April. Since then,

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Speaker 2: we've had quite positive new bond tariffs with the delays

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Speaker 2: on all the pause to negotiate deals around the world

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Speaker 2: between Trump and the major nations, also have a slightly

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Speaker 2: more optimistic look around the global macro well look. And

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Speaker 2: also the sort of artificial intelligence trade which has been

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Speaker 2: a key theme over over the last few years, has

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Speaker 2: really come back with a theory and that is sending

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Speaker 2: a lot of stock slider, Microsoft, Navidier, Oracle back to

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Speaker 2: all time highs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Andrew, Thanks very much. Andrew Coutaine Milford ask management.

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