1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,040
Speaker 1: Around appointed much Tobat Harmony, the son of the late

2
00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:07,360
Speaker 1: Supreme Leader who was killed in UIs Israeli strikes. As

3
00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,480
Speaker 1: the new Supreme Leader, fifty six years old, kept a

4
00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,040
Speaker 1: very low profile. Andrew England, as the Financial Times Middle

5
00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: East editor joins US Live this morning, Andrew, this doesn't

6
00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,760
Speaker 1: sound much like a big change or regime change. Is

7
00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:23,079
Speaker 1: what's this guy going to be?

8
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:23,239
Speaker 2: Like?

9
00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:23,760
Speaker 1: Do we know?

10
00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 3: No, I mean, we know very little about him. But

11
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 3: what we do know is he's probably going to be

12
00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 3: a continuation of his father, who is in power for

13
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:37,160
Speaker 3: nearly four decades. That means a hardline, hostile attitude towards

14
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,920
Speaker 3: the US, towards Israel, towards the West more generally. And

15
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,519
Speaker 3: let's remember that, you know, last week the Americans and

16
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:51,120
Speaker 3: israelis bomb Supreme Leader his father's compound killed mushta Bar's father,

17
00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 3: his mother, his wife, his sister. So you know, he's

18
00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,760
Speaker 3: probably got a lot of hostility in him. So what

19
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,960
Speaker 3: we've seen is one how many replaced another Hamony just

20
00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,160
Speaker 3: this is a younger version, potentially a more hawkish version.

21
00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,240
Speaker 3: We just don't know yet because we don't know enough

22
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,959
Speaker 3: about him. Like you said, he's kind of kept a

23
00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,400
Speaker 3: very low profile over the years.

24
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,520
Speaker 1: There's talk that people haven't even heard his voice. We

25
00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,520
Speaker 1: don't even know what he sounds like. He's a low profile.

26
00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's one recording of his voice, and they the

27
00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,480
Speaker 3: Iranian media has put out footage of him back in

28
00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:30,959
Speaker 3: the eighties during the Irana Rock War when he's with

29
00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 3: what looks like members of the elite Revolutionary Guards and

30
00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,280
Speaker 3: he's close to Revenuetion Guards.

31
00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,280
Speaker 2: But you know, he's had no formal position.

32
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,800
Speaker 3: We know that he was close to his father, the

33
00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 3: Supreme lead to Ali I told Ali Haromeni, and sort

34
00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 3: of worked in his office, but he had no formal position.

35
00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 3: He hasn't spoken, he hasn't hasn't given a statement. We

36
00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,280
Speaker 3: haven't heard from him since the war started. We don't

37
00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:00,920
Speaker 3: know where he is and we don't really know what

38
00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:02,400
Speaker 3: the fate of it is. We don't know if he

39
00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,040
Speaker 3: was in that compound, you know, if he's wounded, if

40
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 3: he's fit and healthy.

41
00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 2: We just really don't know.

42
00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 1: He's obviously got a target on his back. Now, I

43
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,519
Speaker 1: doesn't thin because the Israelies as say they want to

44
00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,440
Speaker 1: get rid of them in.

45
00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:19,960
Speaker 2: The absolutely now no, I mean, you know, possibly the Americans.

46
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,040
Speaker 3: I mean, Trump was asked about Mochedaba the other day

47
00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,079
Speaker 3: and he called him a lightweight. He said that he

48
00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:30,440
Speaker 3: wants to approve the appointment of a new leader. He's

49
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,680
Speaker 3: said he's worn that, you know, a new leader without

50
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,360
Speaker 3: his approval won't last long. These Raelis have suggested that

51
00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:42,720
Speaker 3: they would assassinate a new leader. Trump said he's that

52
00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 3: the American and Israeli strikes have killed forty nine leaders.

53
00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 3: So certainly given that he's, you know, an extension of

54
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,840
Speaker 3: his father, an extension of the regime, and it's a

55
00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:54,720
Speaker 3: sign that the regime is doubling down.

56
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 2: It's showing that it's defined.

57
00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:01,200
Speaker 3: It's kind of stuck its finger up to Trump and

58
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 3: showing that, you know, everyone's reading this, this is going

59
00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,959
Speaker 3: to continue to resist and fight back in this For

60
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,240
Speaker 3: then obviously he's going to be reassume that he's going

61
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:10,040
Speaker 3: to be a prime target.

62
00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're also saying they can do six months of

63
00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,799
Speaker 1: this dance at this pace of bombing. Is that bluster

64
00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:15,919
Speaker 1: or are they serious?

65
00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:17,480
Speaker 2: Six months?

66
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:23,679
Speaker 1: The Americans or the Iranians, Sorry.

67
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 2: We don't know.

68
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,720
Speaker 3: I mean, look, obviously they're taking an absolute pounding that's

69
00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 3: been intense bombing. They've got blistic missiles which require missile launches,

70
00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,200
Speaker 3: and you can have as many missiles as you like,

71
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,760
Speaker 3: but if you don't have the launches, then the missiles

72
00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 3: are no good. And we can assume, and these readies

73
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,120
Speaker 3: have been saying this that a lot of their.

74
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 2: Launches have been hit.

75
00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,920
Speaker 3: They also have drones which they've been firing across the gulf,

76
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 3: and this is what's pushed up with all prices.

77
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:48,320
Speaker 2: They have a lot of drones.

78
00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,120
Speaker 3: You don't need launches to do those. So, you know,

79
00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 3: we don't know how long they can stain it because

80
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,400
Speaker 3: we don't know the full degree of their arsenals. We

81
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,760
Speaker 3: don't know the full degree of damage. But you've got

82
00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:02,560
Speaker 3: to remember, from the Islamic Gene's perspective, endurance is a victory.

83
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:03,760
Speaker 2: Survival is victory.

84
00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 3: And as long as they can continue firing and missile

85
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:12,440
Speaker 3: here and a drone there and survive this onslought from

86
00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 3: you know the world's most powerful army to them, that

87
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:15,440
Speaker 3: will be victory.

88
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,359
Speaker 2: So in some ways it's kind of a war of endurance.

89
00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,560
Speaker 1: Andrew, appreciate your analysis this morning, Andrew England, Financial Times

90
00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:23,599
Speaker 1: Middle East Editor.

91
00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,919
Speaker 2: It is for more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.

92
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 3: Listen live to news talks it'd be from five am weekdays,

93
00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,800
Speaker 3: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio