1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:01,240 Speaker 1: I'm good. 2 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 2: How are you doing very well on doing? Speaking of parties, 3 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 2: how big is it going to be at Labor HQ 4 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 2: tonight you Regon. 5 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:09,039 Speaker 1: I think it is going to be pretty big. As 6 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: we speak. There are forty six million eligible voters going 7 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: to the polls here. They have until ten pm, and 8 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: on the last bit of polling that was released last night, 9 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: Labor is on course for the largest single party majority 10 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: since eighteen thirty two, with sixteen members of the current 11 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: twenty six member cabinet the government here expected to lose 12 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: their seats. To put that into context, only eleven cabinet 13 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: members have lost their seats in elections since nineteen seventy. 14 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: It is expected to be a huge night for Labor, 15 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: with them going up to as many as four hundred 16 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 1: and thirty one MPs out of our six hundred and fifty, 17 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: the Conservatives falling all the way down to one hundred 18 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: and two MP's, basically losing about two thirds of their 19 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: party in part parliament, and the Liberal Democrats are sort 20 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: of fighting now a bit for the third place because 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: they're going to go all the way up to seventy 22 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: two MP's. Its thoughts, that is their highest ever turnout 23 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: so it is going to be a bit of a 24 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: dramatic night in UK politics if these polls are to 25 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: be believable. 26 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 2: Well, it was my next question, do you believe the poles? 27 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 2: When first of all tupac question you get an exit 28 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: pole and the exit poles, broadly speaking accurate. Second part, 29 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: do you believe the polls? Is it going to be 30 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: that big or not? 31 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, all of the UK broadcasters work together on the 32 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: exit pole. It there's a mammoth exercise. It is normally 33 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,919 Speaker 1: pretty accurate. So that'll drop right at ten o'clock our time, 34 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: and it's thought that the sort of will start to 35 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: get maybe an indication at about three am four am 36 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: of how accurate it is. I think tonight honestly is 37 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: going to either be the death of the British Conservative 38 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: Party or the death of the British polling industry, because 39 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: if they have got it so wrong, then I think 40 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: the whole mechanism that they use using landline phones and such. 41 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: They are trying to diversify it, but then the whole 42 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: mechanism is completely busted. The Conservatives are going to be 43 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: in a state of freefall of it's going to be 44 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:13,119 Speaker 1: believed because the Prime minister even for the first time 45 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: ever Rishie Sunak, no Prime minister has lost his seat before. 46 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 1: He will likely lose his seat, it seems on these projections. 47 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: And then there is going to be a big fight 48 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: between the sort of more centrist wing of the party, 49 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: the Cameronites that took them back into power in twenty ten, 50 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: versus the sort of far right of the party, the 51 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: Sewella Bravaman's, the Kemi Badanox, the people that were the 52 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: sort of leave tribe when it came to the EU ferendum. 53 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: Whether or not they take control of the party, but 54 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: I think it's pretty safe to say, no matter what 55 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: happens tonight or whoever comes out on top by how much, 56 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: it is very likely that this is the final day 57 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: of fourteen years of Conservative government in Britain. 58 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 2: That is true. What do we make of the Reform Party? 59 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 2: They at least look like the going to at last 60 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 2: get a few seats. 61 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: I think we're going to see no more than four 62 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: to five seats for them. The problem with Reform, as 63 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: it was with UKIP, is it is the Nigel Show. 64 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: He doesn't like sharing the spotlight. This is Nigel Farage 65 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 1: their leader. He is likely to become an MP out 66 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: in Clacton. I don't think, having known Nigel for a 67 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: long time, he's gonna much enjoy being an MP, to 68 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: be honest, because it sort of diminishes his platform. If 69 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: they've only got four or five MPs, he's just one 70 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: of sort of six hundred and fifty. He won't be 71 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: afforded sort of you know that many questions at Prime 72 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: Minister's questions. He also will have to declare all his finances. 73 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: He won't be able to jest around as much. You'll 74 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: have to do things like constituency surgeries. But there is 75 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: this sneaking suspicion that he might make a bid to 76 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: swap to the Conservative Party and try and take over 77 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: the leadership of that party. But there have been done 78 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: quite a bit of damage because a lot of their 79 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: candidates weren't properly vetted. There's been accusations levels of racism 80 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: by some of them. But also I've spoken to some 81 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: candidates around the country, Conservative candidates who've become slightly less 82 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: worried about THET in particular those who have a lot 83 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: of military personnel or families with military personnel who might 84 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: have been reform curious they're really unhappy with what Nigel 85 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: Frage has been saying about Vladimir Putin and his sort 86 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: of thoughts that NATO and the West provoked the invasion 87 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: of Ukraine. So whilst I think they will split a 88 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: lot of toy vote in parts of the country, in 89 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 1: the North particularly, I don't think they're going to be, 90 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: you know, anywhere going more than sort of five MP's 91 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 1: at maximum because of the way our system works. 92 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,119 Speaker 2: What you read on the usumpage, given all the problems 93 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 2: they've hid and does the rid wives sweep up north? 94 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: I think Labor are going and this has always been 95 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: the problem for Labor. They were so locked out of 96 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: power after having lost basically all of their seats in 97 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: Scotland back in twenty fifteen after that independence referendum, when 98 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: the SNP storms through Scotland taking I think all but 99 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: one seat at the time. I think the SNP are 100 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 1: going to hold on to some of their key seats, 101 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: but they are going to be much diminished in Westminster. 102 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: They have tried to make this north of the border 103 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: a you know, this is the sort of final stand 104 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 1: for trying to get independence. They've had, you know, they 105 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: only had a leader in position for about a week 106 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: before this election was called after the previous one stood down, 107 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,799 Speaker 1: and of course the Nicholas Sturgeon the police investigations ongoing 108 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: about what's been going on with party finances. What will 109 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: be interesting is Nicholas Sturgeon is one of the main 110 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: contributors tonight on the ITV Overnight election program, so she'll 111 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: be in the studio having to react in real time 112 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: to the fate of her party that she led for 113 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: a long time successfully. 114 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 2: Jus are going to be fascinating time, all right, Vincent 115 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 2: appreciated very much, might go well. Vincent mcavinie, who was 116 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: in Britain for more from News Talks. 117 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: It'd be listen live on air or online and keep 118 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: our shows with you wherever you go with our podcast 119 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.