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Speaker 1: Devin Fund's management, Greg Smith, Morning to you, Morning to Mike. So,

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Speaker 1: tariff's story, according to Trump's done over two hundred deals,

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Speaker 1: so things must be coming right, would that be true

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Speaker 1: or not? Greg?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they might be stretching in a little bit, but

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Speaker 2: what we have to see, won't we But you're talking

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Speaker 2: about negotiations. It seems a little bit of brightness suppose

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Speaker 2: on both sides this obviously game of tariff chicken run. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that big development last week was Trump saying that one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty five percent tariffs on Chinese imports wouldn't

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Speaker 2: be that high, or that Chinese didn't need to give

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Speaker 2: them something though, and clean being open to having more

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Speaker 2: use goods being sold. So it does seem like the

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Speaker 2: stance is softening a bit. You know, you have to

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Speaker 2: think that you know the numbers and you put on

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Speaker 2: that board, you know, the the triple digit tariffs. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: pretty ridiculous when you sort of think about it. So

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Speaker 2: reports that Chinese obviously it's been going toe to toe.

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Speaker 2: They're mulling the suspension of the one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent tariff and stuff like medical equipment, dustrial chemicals.

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Speaker 2: So you just won the mic we passed peak trade

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Speaker 2: war fare and had to investors have less calls to

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Speaker 2: be terrified about the outcome. Yeah, perhaps say there's been

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Speaker 2: a lot of bravado from the Tree administration, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: that I was thinking a lot of it was doing

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Speaker 2: with the initial tariff tantrum, which might be settling down

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Speaker 2: a bit. You know, maybe Trump realized there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of stuff that the US can't make and the qunscities

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Speaker 2: they need at anytime soon, particularly from China and iPhones

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Speaker 2: is just one example. So he obviously wants to back

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Speaker 2: down without losing face, and so it was all part

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Speaker 2: of the master plan. But you know, he said also

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Speaker 2: over the weekend that he considers tariffs of twenty to

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Speaker 2: fifty percent on foreign countries eth from now as being

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Speaker 2: a victory. And as you said, he reckons is around

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Speaker 2: a bit two hundred deals coming, he said China as

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Speaker 2: in fact that was Scott Best in the treaty Sectory

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Speaker 2: over the weekend said that there is a special negotiation

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Speaker 2: underway with China, so maybe more twists and turns. I

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Speaker 2: note that also reports that China is preparing contingency plans

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Speaker 2: in case things don't work out. So yeah, stay tuned.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So how domestically is that affecting America yet?

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Speaker 2: If it is, yeah, it is, so I think you know,

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Speaker 2: part of the softening of the stance is obviously the

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Speaker 2: stock market volatility, but it is also having a real

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Speaker 2: impact on the economy. So a few numbers here, So

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Speaker 2: on Friday, years existing home sales they fell almost six percent,

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Speaker 2: four million units. Immature existing homes jumped eight percent. Supplies

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Speaker 2: up nearly twenty percent on a year ago. So we've

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Speaker 2: got higher borron costs, and of course, you know the

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Speaker 2: terror policy is also complicating what the fedloks to do

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Speaker 2: on on bringing down rates further. You've got lumber prices

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Speaker 2: that are shooting up thanks to tariffs. You've got general

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Speaker 2: concerns over and economics slow down. You got new homes

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Speaker 2: in the tree that's at the high since late two

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Speaker 2: thousand and seven. Then you look at durable goods orders,

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Speaker 2: so you look at the proxy for business spending plans,

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Speaker 2: and you exclude aircraft from the equation. Eached up just

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Speaker 2: zero point one percent in March. So my businesses are

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Speaker 2: cautious this is going to filter through to the economy.

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Speaker 2: We've got GDP out this week for the March quarter,

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Speaker 2: we're expecting growth of just half percent, and that compares

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Speaker 2: to two point four percent in the fourth quarter. On

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Speaker 2: the manufactured goods print that did serge nine point two percent.

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Speaker 2: That that was driven by commercial aircraft orders and they

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Speaker 2: are up one hundred and thirty eight percent by head

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Speaker 2: on its website that it received one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 2: two aircraft orders in March from thirteen few. Of course,

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Speaker 2: China has a ban on the mious things stand and ironically,

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Speaker 2: tourism is looking like another drag on the economy. Mic

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Speaker 2: so foreign visitors to the US by AFOL nearly ten

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Speaker 2: percent of March four and a half million. Now, this

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Speaker 2: is a big concern for the US travel winds Street

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Speaker 2: brings in a trillion a year and meanwile inflation expectations

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Speaker 2: as we know. Picking up the final University of Michigan

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Speaker 2: survey had the one year outlook at six and a

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Speaker 2: half percent. Now that's the highest since November nineteen eighty one.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, tough spot for the feed mic Ortho. At

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Speaker 2: least Jerome Powell isn't in the firing line anymore according

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Speaker 2: to Trump.

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Speaker 1: Now, and then we got Alphabet who came to the

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Speaker 1: party with some some nice eye watering numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what lots of big techtocks on the up

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Speaker 2: on fighting cleaning Teaser it was up nearly ten percent,

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Speaker 2: but alf bet their own Scoogle that was up one

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Speaker 2: and a half percent. That'd be on the top and

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Speaker 2: bottom line. Search and advertising units going pretty well. Revenue

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Speaker 2: for the quarter about a billion more and expected ninety

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Speaker 2: two billion. YouTube's going pretty well. Google Google Cloud revenue

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Speaker 2: was strong. Alfabet said Aiover's overviews, which is its AI

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Speaker 2: tool place at the top of the Google search page,

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Speaker 2: now has one point five billion users per month. That's

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Speaker 2: going pretty well. They did talk about the tariff situation.

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Speaker 2: They said there will be some headwinds, including the ending

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Speaker 2: of this deminymous trade loophole which which stops on May second.

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Speaker 2: So that basically means that shipments worth less than eight

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Speaker 2: hundred bucks ken into the US duty free not anymore,

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Speaker 2: and that'll effait advertising from likes of Timur and Shine.

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Speaker 2: Despite some caution of the outlook here and now is

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Speaker 2: going pretty well for Apple, culling needn't come up forty

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Speaker 2: six percent to thirty four point five billion, so she

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Speaker 2: is a higher one tech which was low as Intel

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Speaker 2: down nearly seven percent. The chip maker issued disappointing guidance

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Speaker 2: and talked about very fluid trade policies as the reason.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see what other companies are saying this week.

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Speaker 2: We've got a deluge burnings. Lots of big tech names

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Speaker 2: as well, so that'll be good stuff.

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Speaker 1: Numbers please, so they're on the up.

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Speaker 2: On Friday the day, I was up twenty points forty

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Speaker 2: or one one three s and P five hundred point

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Speaker 2: seven percent five five to two five, NAI's deck up

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Speaker 2: one point three percent, forty one hundred one point one percent,

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Speaker 2: Nike up one point nine percent. So the Japanese PM

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Speaker 2: announced to some measures to conflict what we're seeing on

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Speaker 2: the on the tariff and trade front. Asex two hundred

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Speaker 2: and insidex fifty of course closed for ENZIC day unless

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Speaker 2: we forget spot goal down thirty dollars three three twenty

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Speaker 2: WTI l up twenty three cents sixty three spot O

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Speaker 2: two and the currency's key we lower against the US

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Speaker 2: fifty nine point six, strain dollar ninety three point two

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Speaker 2: lower also against the pound forty four point eight, but

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Speaker 2: we were high against the end eighty five point seven

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Speaker 2: This week Mike Lot's going on locally business confidence building,

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Speaker 2: permits and off shore, we've got GDP in inflation data

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Speaker 2: of the US and the Eurozone, China manufacturing data also

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Speaker 2: for the US and the US non farm payrolls Bank

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Speaker 2: of Japan. They are also meeting, and big week for innings.

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Speaker 2: We've got and the supercap tech names. We've got Microsoft, Meta,

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Speaker 2: Epple and Amazon. And then the more sort of traditional

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Speaker 2: end of the scar We've got Visa, Caterpillar, Coca Cola,

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Speaker 2: and McDonald's.

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Speaker 1: So what's going on, Jeeves. We'll look forward to it

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Speaker 1: all well. Then make Grief Smith devon Funds Management. For

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Speaker 1: more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.

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