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Speaker 1: Now I've been looking forward to us, Rob little not there,

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Speaker 1: and I look forward to you every time we talk. Rob.

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Speaker 1: But this morning a good morning, first of all. But

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Speaker 1: this morning, how exciting is this vote that yesterday you had?

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Speaker 2: Very exciting?

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Speaker 1: You know, you had a surprise leader, and now the

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Speaker 1: surprise leader is gone.

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Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, and a bit of chicaneery has been applied

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Speaker 2: I think by people who supported Okamie Olifanto. Addiguki Badenoch,

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Speaker 2: who is almost certain to become the next leader of

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Speaker 2: the Conservative Party, a middle class girl from a middle

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Speaker 2: class Nigerian background in Southwest London, who has worked in science,

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Speaker 2: primarily as a computer engineer, and is regarded as being

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Speaker 2: a little bit prickly, but also very competent and is

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Speaker 2: unquestionably this is the important point, I suppose, on the

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Speaker 2: right of the party. Certainly socially, she is a social conservative,

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Speaker 2: as you would imagine people from a Nigerian or gun

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Speaker 2: Ayan or West African background might be. So this is

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Speaker 2: bad news firstly for Keir Starmer because of all the

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Speaker 2: candidates who were lined up possibly to replace Richie Sunaka's leader,

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Speaker 2: she is the one who will cause the most damage.

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Speaker 2: At the dispatch box partners with her intellect, of course,

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Speaker 2: because she's combatative and she knows her brief partly also

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Speaker 2: because once again the Conservative Party has shown that it

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Speaker 2: is capable of electing people from people of color to

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Speaker 2: positions of very very high authority in the party. That's

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Speaker 2: the second consecutive leader, a third if your countants trust, who,

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Speaker 2: to all intents and purposes, did look like a white

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Speaker 2: middle class lady from the Home Counties who was actually

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Speaker 2: from the planet Sark, which is in a spiral arm

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Speaker 2: of the Andromeda galaxy. So she is actually the third,

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Speaker 2: the second black leader of the party, and I suspect

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Speaker 2: will do very well. Now I say that she's almost

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Speaker 2: certain to become I think that when this vote goes

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Speaker 2: out to the activists and the party, she will crush

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Speaker 2: Robert Jenrick very very easily. Indeed, But one always has

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Speaker 2: to bear in mind that the Conservative Party is a

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Speaker 2: bizarre convocation of human beings, and that the surprise could

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Speaker 2: occur to all intensive purposes, she will be the next leader.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So just work me through what's happen in the

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Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. So Generic leads pretty much until

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Speaker 1: the vote before yesterday, he led the whole time. So

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Speaker 1: he was the alleged hot favorite, Cleverly to the lead,

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Speaker 1: lipped into the lead yesterday, the skulduggery or whatever's gone on,

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Speaker 1: what went on for suddenly better not to be there

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Speaker 1: or thereabouts, but then now suddenly boomed she as the leader.

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Speaker 2: I'm a decent friend of someone who ran Badanock's campaign,

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Speaker 2: and I remember talking to him five or six weeks

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Speaker 2: ago and saying, my guess is that it gets to

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Speaker 2: the final two and that will be Badenoch, Badenoch versus Generic,

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Speaker 2: and Badenock wins. And he said, yes, unless she gets

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Speaker 2: kicked out. Well, it's down to four people, three or

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Speaker 2: four people, and that was the thing they had to

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Speaker 2: guard against. So I think what clearly happened, and this

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Speaker 2: is whether she Canery was involved, was that people who

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Speaker 2: would have voted for Badenoch in the last round transferred

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Speaker 2: their votes to Cleverly, James Cleverly, who was the kind

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Speaker 2: of amiable, comfortable center candidate also of course from an

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Speaker 2: ethnic minority background, right, and that they then switched them

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Speaker 2: back very very rapidly today. And so for a couple

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Speaker 2: of days, you know, we've been saying James clever has

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Speaker 2: come from nowhere. He's the man to leave the party. No,

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Speaker 2: he really isn't, and it never occurred to me really

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Speaker 2: that he would win.

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Speaker 1: Okay then, having said that, just to explain to people

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Speaker 1: who haven't followed this closely, this has all been in

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Speaker 1: the realms of the MPs. As you say, it goes

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Speaker 1: to the party members if they pervade knock. Are the

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Speaker 1: MP's and the party members in unison and universally happy.

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Speaker 2: Not entirely. No, there will be a large rump of

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Speaker 2: the Conservative Party which objects to the stridency of Kenny

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Speaker 2: badenox rightish concerns, particularly on social issues, particularly on so

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Speaker 2: for example, she very much upset the apple cart earlier

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Speaker 2: in her campaign where she said that she didn't agree

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Speaker 2: with some of the welfare payments to women. And she

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Speaker 2: is very much you know, traditional family, traditional gender ideologies,

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Speaker 2: sexual ideology. She is very much of that trunch which

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Speaker 2: exists within the West African community but also exists very

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Speaker 2: very strongly within a large proportion of the Conservative community

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Speaker 2: in this country.

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Speaker 1: Being reported this morning in the Australian media that Starmer,

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Speaker 1: who I am assuming was going given the kings going

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Speaker 1: to Chogham and Samoa, was going with the King. He's

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Speaker 1: canceled a trip to Australia because the myss that he's

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Speaker 1: created for himself is so severely coountiful to be out

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Speaker 1: of the country. Is that fair?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that is for her. It is remarkable

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Speaker 2: that a party which has such a huge majority can

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Speaker 2: now find itself only one point ahead in the opinion polls.

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Speaker 2: And with Kirs Starmer, who's great train hitherto was that

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Speaker 2: he never succumbed to press pressure and sacks anybody and

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Speaker 2: gets rid of his chief of staff, is most important appointment.

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Speaker 2: He is in real trouble. And as I mentioned, I

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Speaker 2: think last week on the program to header, you know,

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Speaker 2: my own party leader gave him a ten percent chance

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Speaker 2: of leading Labor at the next election. I think that's

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Speaker 2: maybe especially a bit far, but I wouldn't put it

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Speaker 2: much more than thirty percent.

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Speaker 1: Wow, all right, might go, well, we'll catch up next week.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate it, Rod little that reference. At one point,

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Speaker 1: he refers to as the more uncommon survey that came

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Speaker 1: out yesterday Labor on twenty nine, Conservatives twenty eight, Reform nineteen,

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Speaker 1: lib DIMSI live in the Greens on seven.

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Speaker 2: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast.

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Speaker 1: Listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays,

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