1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:00,559 Speaker 1: Afternoon. 2 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 2: Donald Trump has promised a new age of peace in 3 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 2: the Middle East. After the successful return of the twenty 4 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,239 Speaker 2: remaining living hostages, he and some other world leaders have 5 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 2: signed a document ending the war in Gaza. The agreement 6 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: requires HUMAS members in Gaza to disarm and make way 7 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: for a temporary Palestinian governing committee. 8 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: Now. 9 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 2: Roger Shanahan is a former Army officer and a Middle 10 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: East analyst and with us Hi Roger Hi, how and well, 11 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 2: thank you? Do you think that there will be lasting 12 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 2: piece as a result of this? 13 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: I think we probably have to temper our expectations. Certainly 14 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: there's a good chance of peace in Gaza, but broader 15 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: Middle East still a foundational elements that make it politically 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: unstable are still there. This peace agreement doesn't really do 17 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: much about that. 18 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 2: How can you be confident there will be peace in Gaza? 19 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: Well? More confident. I think there's a sense of exhaustion 20 00:00:55,320 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: after two years. Both sides really want to go back 21 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: to their corners and take stock about the next steps. 22 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: HAMAS has been severely degraded, but not defeated, and Israel 23 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 1: will be looking to relieve itself with the burden of 24 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: having to continually mobilize its reserve population for military operations 25 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: and also try and repair its international reputation. 26 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 2: What do you make of Hamas firing in Gaza City? 27 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,040 Speaker 2: Is this them trying to assert their dominance again? 28 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, I think so there's a inevitable vacuum after 29 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 1: Israeli troops withdrew to their first Phase one lines within Gaza. 30 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: There's no international stabilization force yet in place, and so 31 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: order is being restored, if you want, by the strongest 32 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: party at the moment, and that remains Hummas. 33 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, and how will it always remain Hummus or is 34 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 2: there a answer somebody else comes up here and challenges them. 35 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's a good question. And I think what 36 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: we're seeing at the moment is Hummus ensuring that in 37 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: the short term, at least, nobody else is going to 38 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: come and try and cert their authority. It's going to 39 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: be much more complex when this new stabilization force and 40 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: the governing authority whatever that looks like, comes into power. 41 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: And what role if any Hummas or a Hummas two 42 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,519 Speaker 1: point zero are going to play. 43 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. Now, as you've indicated, we can't be sure at 44 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 2: all that this piece is necessarily going to last, but 45 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: to the point at which it's got to right with 46 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,679 Speaker 2: the release of the living hostages and peace at the 47 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: moment and AID going in, is that enough to qualify 48 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 2: Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize? 49 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: Listen, I think he'd probably be one of the people considered. 50 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: But you have to look at persons overall makeup and 51 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: contribution to peace. Certainly there are other players involved in 52 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 1: this process. Certainly it wouldn't have got over the line 53 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: unless President Trump was there. But we also have to 54 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: understand that the US was heavily backing Israel in the 55 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: conflict as well. US also bombed Iranian territory, and so 56 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: does that negate from the positives from the signing of 57 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: this peace agreement? I think that'll be up to the 58 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: Nobel Prize committee in twelve months time and. 59 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: Possibly whether they likab or not. Roger, Thanks very much. 60 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: Roger Shanahan, former Army officer in Afghanistan and Middle East analist. 61 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 62 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 2: news talks. 63 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 64 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.