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Speaker 1: Now. Obviously the countdown is on right now for the

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Speaker 1: most highly anticipated Reserve Bank decision in quite some time.

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Speaker 1: Economists are pretty divided on whether the Bank's going to

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Speaker 1: cut or hold the OCR At two tomorrow afternoon, Infametric's

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Speaker 1: principle economist Brad Olsen is with mehy Brad good evening.

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Speaker 1: Let me get this right. You don't think they're going

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Speaker 1: to cut, but you think they should cut. Is that right?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean that's broadly in the right ballpark. I

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Speaker 2: mean we think that, you know, the economy is clearly

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Speaker 2: weaker on most of the data that we would have

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Speaker 2: come through in the economy the last couple of months,

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Speaker 2: we would probably say enough is enough and it's time

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Speaker 2: to cut. But we don't think they will, and in

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Speaker 2: a sense I almost don't think they can, given how

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Speaker 2: much of a u turn they're taking. But what I

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Speaker 2: think they will do, and certainly what I think they

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Speaker 2: should do tomorrow given all of that, is they need

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Speaker 2: to make it pretty clear that they got it wrong

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Speaker 2: and may they were completely and utterly wrong. They need

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Speaker 2: to shift the dial and they need to start sort

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Speaker 2: of setting that the groundwork for making a move before

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Speaker 2: the end of the year. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 2: October or if it's November. Probably almost should be October,

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Speaker 2: but they've had some communication issues in recent times. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it is a little bit bizarre, right that, you know,

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Speaker 2: economists talk about whether or not a decision is live

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Speaker 2: or not could we get a change. You go back

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Speaker 2: to where they were in May, and honestly, there was

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Speaker 2: no hope of a change up or down in a

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Speaker 2: sense for another year. Now we're talking about it like

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Speaker 2: it could be, you know, locked in the markets of price.

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Speaker 2: I think sort of a seventy percent expectation that you

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Speaker 2: could see the official cash rate fall tomorrow. Economists seem

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit more circumspect about that. But

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Speaker 2: long story short, the economy is in a darker place,

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Speaker 2: but the Reserve Bank backs it south into a corner,

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Speaker 2: and so sort of all bets are off at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let me get this right. Tomorrow is a

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Speaker 1: monetary policy statement where they actually give a press conference.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, so they give it the whole kid in

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Speaker 2: kaboodle in November. Yes that's correct, but not October.

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Speaker 1: So listen, Brad. They can't they literally cannot hold the

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Speaker 1: country in this nonsense for six weeks extra or whatever

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Speaker 1: it is, because they're not holding a press conference. So

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Speaker 1: is it possible, which is what the discussion has been about,

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Speaker 1: why they can't cut in October because then they can't

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Speaker 1: hold a press conference. They just issue a press release.

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Speaker 1: Can they give a full press conference tomorrow where they

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Speaker 1: set it up beautifully for October and then just do

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Speaker 1: it via a press release in October? Is that possible?

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Speaker 2: I think it is possible, and you know, in our

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Speaker 2: minds we are starting to wonder if that might be

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Speaker 2: the better move. Because you're right. I mean, so tomorrow

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Speaker 2: you get at two pm, you get the decision, but

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Speaker 2: you also get everything. You get all of the new

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Speaker 2: forecasts from the Reserve Bank. You get pages and pages

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Speaker 2: of analysis and understanding not only of what they think

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Speaker 2: their official cash rate could be over the next sort

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Speaker 2: of two years, but also what they think happens to

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Speaker 2: inflation in the economy, and similar an hour later at

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Speaker 2: three pm, the Governor will be standing out there two media,

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Speaker 2: speaking for nearly an hour on all of those views,

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Speaker 2: and then, like you say, in October, you get like

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Speaker 2: a page or two and so I think you're right.

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Speaker 2: This is where the setup needs to happen now if

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Speaker 2: they don't do that, and I think you know, we're

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Speaker 2: still holding our breath at Infametris. We're not going to

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Speaker 2: make a change until tomorrow afternoon, when we understand we're

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Speaker 2: on Earth, the bank is landed on all this, because

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Speaker 2: how many times have they done this? It flip flopp

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Speaker 2: between sort of.

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Speaker 1: Hot and cold and hot and cold, hood and cold.

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Speaker 2: So we are really sort of trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: what happens there. But once we know, that's when I

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Speaker 2: think we'll make a bit of a stronger call on

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Speaker 2: what comes through. Regardless, I think they need to acknowledge

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Speaker 2: tomorrow that they got it wrong at some point along

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Speaker 2: the way, but it is important. I think that if

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Speaker 2: they want to go in October, they need to set

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Speaker 2: that ground work up. Otherwise we might well come through

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Speaker 2: to November and all of a sudden they have to

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Speaker 2: go with a fifty basis point cup because all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden things have moved sort of too much.

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Speaker 1: Further on, Brad, you make some excellent points, mate, Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Really looking forward to talking to you

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Speaker 1: again about this. Brad Olson in for metrics principle economist

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Speaker 1: put that in your diary for two o'clock tomorrow and

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Speaker 1: you can tune in and see rat adri and go

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Speaker 1: particularly red in the face. He's naturally quite florid, but

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Speaker 1: I think when the journalists start giving him a hard

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Speaker 1: time tomorrow, he's going to be going to he's going

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Speaker 1: to read and right up, he's going to go full

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Speaker 1: Tomato on us. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive

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Speaker 1: Listen live and news talks.

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