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Speaker 1: So let's wrap what unfolded in America these past twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours. The counting rolls on, of course, and we're

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Speaker 1: still here from Kamela Herrish's coming in in just under

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Speaker 1: two hours time. Apparently the Republicans have done enough to

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Speaker 1: grab the White House and control the Senate. It was

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Speaker 1: a clean result in Philly, obvious as our afternoon rolled

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Speaker 1: into evening. There's also history at play, of course, given

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Speaker 1: a former president running for office having been booted out

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Speaker 1: doesn't happen every day. Nick Bryant is back with us. Nick,

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Speaker 1: morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Mike, it felt like we've seen that movie before

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Speaker 2: when we were together in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad you raised that because last night when

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Speaker 1: I was watching in the Washington Square and the guy

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Speaker 1: wandered out in the early hours of the morning and

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Speaker 1: said she won't be appearing tonight. Bang, I was straight

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Speaker 1: back at the jebb At Center in sixteen. It was

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Speaker 1: like two point zero, wasn't it.

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Speaker 3: It really was.

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Speaker 2: I remember that night everybody was told to go home.

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Speaker 2: John Potesta, who was a campaign chief, came out and

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Speaker 2: said the candidate will be speaking tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: And you know, at that point it's all over.

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Speaker 2: I mean Hillary Clinton, of course had that massive glass

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Speaker 2: ceiling above her state that she was figuratively supposed to smash.

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris hadn't gone for that kind of symbolism, but

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Speaker 2: still devastating for her. She's just actually called up Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump to concede. Apparently she's stressed the importance of the

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Speaker 2: transfer of power and also that he should try.

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Speaker 3: And govern for all of Americans.

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Speaker 2: But I think one of the key stats in this

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Speaker 2: election is he hasn't only won the electoral college vote,

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Speaker 2: it looks very much like he's going to win the

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Speaker 2: nationwide popular vote as well.

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Speaker 1: Exactly. Glad to have you on as always, but specifically

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Speaker 1: your experience in what they call the rust belt, those

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Speaker 1: states that maybe a part of America that we in

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Speaker 1: New Zealand, having gone to Los Angeles and New York,

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Speaker 1: don't get when you get into those places. That's where

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Speaker 1: Trump again won. What is it about that world that

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Speaker 1: we don't see get or understand that they look at

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Speaker 1: him and go, You're the savior.

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Speaker 2: That was always the seed bed of Trump is and

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Speaker 2: Mike I was camped out there in twenty sixteen, and

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Speaker 2: those empty factories and those derelics, steel mills became echo

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Speaker 2: chambers to make America great again. You know, Bill Clinton

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Speaker 2: Mike had spoken about building a Bristol of the twenty

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Speaker 2: first century, how the manufacturing economy would be replaced by

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Speaker 2: a kind of information economy. But if you were living

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Speaker 2: in the Rost Belt, that Bridstol of the twenty first

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Speaker 2: century felt more like a bypass. You felt like an

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Speaker 2: economic castaway in a system that was becoming ever more globalized,

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Speaker 2: ever more digital, ever more confusing. And I think you

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Speaker 2: know that the economics of the Rost Belt obviously still

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Speaker 2: still play into it. You know, you're throwing inflation as well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's spats in the old Clintonian cliche about

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Speaker 2: it's the economy stupid. Well, I think it's the felt

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Speaker 2: economy stupid, because a lot of the economic indices are

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Speaker 2: pretty good for America right now, but not in those communities.

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Speaker 2: And also, you know, it's the inflation stupid. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you are living with hard gas prices and high

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Speaker 2: grocery prices and you're paying more for the mortgage, you

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Speaker 2: know you're not too happy, and you go to take

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Speaker 2: out your age, and once again, I think.

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Speaker 3: You know Donald Trump's become a bit of a.

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Speaker 2: Protest candidate for these people who feel that they're not

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Speaker 2: being listened to, they're not being heard, and one way

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Speaker 2: that they do get heard is to vote for Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump exactly.

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Speaker 1: Is that why the Democrats lost because on the economy,

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Speaker 1: on immigration, they hadn't done anything, and they had a

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Speaker 1: record of not doing enough, and before they couldn't defend it.

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Speaker 1: So they started talking about abortion and that was the

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Speaker 1: end of it for them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think some of their focus Gript told

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Speaker 2: them that, you know, putting democracy on the ballot would

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Speaker 2: work for them again in twenty twenty four, as it

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Speaker 2: had done in the midterms in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: I think that was a key thing.

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Speaker 2: I think they saw what happened not just on January

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Speaker 2: of six, but what happened on twenty twenty one, but

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Speaker 2: what happened on June the twenty four, twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: That was when the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Way.

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Speaker 2: They thought that was going to be a big vote

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Speaker 2: winning as it was in twenty and twenty two.

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Speaker 3: And I think, you know, in the.

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Speaker 2: Midterm elections, they did better than expect and you know

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Speaker 2: what that made them do is stick with Biden. I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, when you look back at the history of this,

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Speaker 2: I think the fact that Biden did better than expected

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Speaker 2: and Democrats did better than expected in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 2: made them think, you know, maybe Joe can win us

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Speaker 2: another four years. And of course at that stage he

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Speaker 2: was very old. You know, we were to learn later

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Speaker 2: quite had dottery and old he'd got. And if they'd

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Speaker 2: have done badly in twenty twenty two, I think there

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Speaker 2: would have been a grand swell in the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 2: We need to find a new candidate. We need to

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Speaker 2: find a better candidate than Joe Biden. There would have

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Speaker 2: been a primary system. Carmla Harris would have had to

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Speaker 2: compete with other Democrats who might have had a better

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Speaker 2: claim and might have been better candidates.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, well, actually that's why I wanted to ask,

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Speaker 1: was Obama actually right because he was one of the

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Speaker 1: few who said just hold on here, let's think about

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Speaker 1: it and maybe have a vote. Was Harris a mistake?

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Speaker 1: Could they have found somebody that would have made a difference,

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Speaker 1: ordered Biden and bury them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, here's my take on that, Mike I. Obama wasn't

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Speaker 2: the only one. Nancy Pelosi as well. She wanted some

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Speaker 2: kind of speedy, little kind of mini primary. When Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden finally decided to release that white knuckle grip on

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Speaker 2: the torch, you know, he really wanted to run again,

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Speaker 2: didn't he. And this was part of the problem. He

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Speaker 2: loved being president. He thought he could win the rust Belt.

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Speaker 2: He thought he's did a better chance than Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 2: which is one of the reasons why he stayed on

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Speaker 2: for so long.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, it's going to be one of

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Speaker 3: the big what ifs.

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Speaker 2: The problem Mike with trying to find another candidate was

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Speaker 2: you risk splitting the Democratic Party and you risked annoying

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Speaker 2: the most loyal constituency of all, which is African American women.

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Speaker 2: There were senior Black Democrats like Jim Clive and a

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Speaker 2: very influential congressman in South Carolina. As you know, he's

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Speaker 2: part of the reason why Biden's the president. Now, they

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Speaker 2: were saying, if it's not Joe, it's got to be Karmela.

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Speaker 3: There were other people saying that too.

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Speaker 2: If they'd have had that kind of process and ended

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Speaker 2: up with a candidate I don't know, like Gretchen Whitner,

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Speaker 2: who's shown that she can win the ross belt state

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Speaker 2: of Michigan not just once but twice, or something like

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Speaker 2: Gavin you some the California governor. Maybe they would have

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Speaker 2: stood a better chance. But in finding that better candidate,

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Speaker 2: they risked splitting the Democratic Party into.

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Speaker 1: Look your scenes. My view of the Trump campaign this

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Speaker 1: time around was it was more professional, more slick, better organized.

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Speaker 1: Was that your view? And does that get reflected in

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Speaker 1: a second term or not?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 2: Look, there's all these great stories about the divisions within

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Speaker 2: the Trump campaign between a campaign who really just wanted

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Speaker 2: to focus on the economy literally asked that Reagan question,

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Speaker 2: are you better off four years ago than you were?

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Speaker 3: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

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Speaker 3: The answer of which is obviously.

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Speaker 2: No, And that the campaign high command then going a

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Speaker 2: bit crazy when Trump did the weave as he called it,

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Speaker 2: when he starts talking about how of a lecta, all

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Speaker 2: the crazy stuff. But yeah, they I think at the

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Speaker 2: top they had, you know, two real pros running things,

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Speaker 2: no question about it. I mean, the Democrats thought they

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Speaker 2: had his financial advances, that the Democrats thought they had

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Speaker 2: this organizational advantage, and they have a very good grand game.

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Speaker 3: They good at getting votes.

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Speaker 2: Out but yeah, I mean, you know Trump's I mean

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Speaker 2: that the whole we've kind of worked for him, didn't it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, talking about the economy, talking about immigration, all

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Speaker 2: the other kind of stuff and the crazy stuff, and

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Speaker 2: that we've wasn't sufficiently off putting to voters to put

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Speaker 2: them off.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So he's going to drill for oil. So he can

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Speaker 1: do that, and that's easy. And the if you look

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Speaker 1: at the markets this morning, they've responded favorably. Ken he

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Speaker 1: fix the war? Kenny salt putin? Can he solve the

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Speaker 1: Middle East? Does he get to do any of that

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Speaker 1: or not?

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Speaker 3: Good?

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Speaker 2: Wow, it's just to go into this world. It's just

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Speaker 2: also mind blowing, isn't it in many ways? You know,

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Speaker 2: let's boil that down. What can he do straight away? Well,

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Speaker 2: one thing we think he'll do is obviously impose far

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Speaker 2: more tariffs, and that would intensify the trade board with China.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, it's interesting the markets have reacted

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Speaker 2: this way, perhaps so just happy about the certainty of

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Speaker 2: the moment, perhaps so reflecting the kind of impact on

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Speaker 2: sort of energy companies who are going to be able

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Speaker 2: to drill now with that kind of environmental regulations that.

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Speaker 3: Have visits in the past, but there is a sense

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Speaker 3: if there is a.

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Speaker 2: Trade or it won't only kind of inflate prices in America,

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Speaker 2: which could increase interest rates. That could lead to a

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Speaker 2: sific global downturn. I mean, I live in Australia. There's

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Speaker 2: been some modeling here that suggests it's going to dip

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Speaker 2: GDP by one point two percent if there is a

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Speaker 2: deepening of the trade or so that that'll be a concern. Yeah, environmentally,

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Speaker 2: you know, he'll pull out of Paris again, as he did.

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Speaker 2: I was with him the last time he pulled out

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Speaker 2: of Paris. You know, it's so hot that day in

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Speaker 2: the brose Garden Mic that our phone stopped working. You

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Speaker 2: know when you get that temperature thing on your phone.

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Speaker 2: If anything symbolized what was at stake and the discrepancy

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Speaker 2: between what was coming out of the President's maath, it

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Speaker 2: was my phone not working.

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Speaker 3: My computer would work. I've never had that before. My

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Speaker 3: laptop would not operate because it was so hot.

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Speaker 2: But he'll pull out of He'll pull out of Paris. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: that has massive ravigations around the world. When you know

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Speaker 2: the world's you know, most powerful country and its second

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Speaker 2: biggest Polluta pulls out of a global climate change agreement

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Speaker 2: like that, Yeah, we're we're back in trump Land again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly does he? And I'm sort of pontificating here,

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Speaker 1: does he set the table for the Republicans in twenty

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Speaker 1: eight or in other words, the Republicans and JD Vans,

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Speaker 1: whether it's him or not, can can go and propel

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Speaker 1: themselves into fore slash eight years? Or is he so

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Speaker 1: unique that it ends in twenty eight?

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Speaker 3: No? I think Trump isn't needs Trump. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: know that's been proven over and over again.

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Speaker 2: You know when when trump Bean candidates stand up often,

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Speaker 2: you know they just don't do particularly well because they

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Speaker 2: haven't got this magnetism that he's got. They haven't got

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Speaker 2: the sort of Chrisman that he's got, they haven't got

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Speaker 2: this sort of personal cult following that he's got.

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Speaker 3: I do think Trump isn't needs Trump.

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Speaker 2: The other thing I'd say, looking forward by is what

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Speaker 2: we've seen here is something quite new in American politics

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Speaker 2: in recent times, which is, you know, you've had one

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Speaker 2: term of Trump followed by one term Biden followed by

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Speaker 2: another Trump. You know, you don't generally get consecutive one

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Speaker 2: term presidencies.

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Speaker 3: You generally get. You know, the pattern.

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Speaker 2: More recently has been, you know, Clinton not two terms,

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Speaker 2: Bush got two terms, Obama got two terms. Now you

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Speaker 2: have had one Trump, one Biden one Trump.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: So what I'm saying is there's a big mood of

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Speaker 2: anti incumbency. And this is a global thing, right, This

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Speaker 2: isn't just in America. There's rage out there. It's inflation driven,

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Speaker 2: its economy driven. And a lot of governments aren't sticking

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Speaker 2: around for long.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: You look at Britain, it's got a new government, and

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Speaker 2: the new government is already hated. It's only been there

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Speaker 2: about five months. You know, the politics at the moment

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Speaker 2: of the world are very feebra.

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Speaker 1: Where do you, Rickham, as you and I will gather

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Speaker 1: in thirty years time when we're seriously old, mean and

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Speaker 1: we'll look back, We'll look back on what Trump was,

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Speaker 1: what he is and what he was about. Where where

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Speaker 1: do you reckon he sits? How remarkable is hell?

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Speaker 2: Look, my argument in the book The Forever War is

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Speaker 2: that Trump is as much a product of American history

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Speaker 2: as Abraham Lincoln, as John F. Kennedy, as Ronald Reagan,

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Speaker 2: as Joe Biden or a Barack Obama. It's just the

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Speaker 2: history that we tend to forget, overlook and sometimes conceal.

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Speaker 2: And it's a history, Mike that often contradicts the grand

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Speaker 2: narrative that a lot of people like to buy into

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Speaker 2: that America is this story of progress, that America's history

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Speaker 2: of advancement. You know, you get Barack Obama, the first

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Speaker 2: African American president, so you're going to get the first

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Speaker 2: female president, Hillary Clinton. Now that didn't happen in twoenty

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Speaker 2: and sixteen, as both of us know, and there was

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Speaker 2: this feeling, well, if America is going to progress, it's

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Speaker 2: going to have a black female president. You know, history

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Speaker 2: doesn't work like that. American history doesn't work like that.

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Speaker 2: Trump taps into a kind of native isn't That's always

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Speaker 2: been there. There's always been a strong men.

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Speaker 3: Have always done well.

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Speaker 2: The week tend to get discarded, which is why Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden didn't stand any chance of getting re election. You know,

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Speaker 2: Conspiratorialism has always been part of the American story.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's the.

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Speaker 2: American story that people kind of like to turn away from,

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Speaker 2: they want to avert their gaze from.

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Speaker 3: But it's a history that makes sense of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Amazing all right mate, Always a pleasure catch up soon.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate it very much. Nick Bryant, who's with us out

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Speaker 1: of Australia this morning.

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Speaker 2: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

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