1 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Kyoda. 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Kiwis are 4 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 2: flying the coop, most of them heading for better opportunities 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 2: across the Tasman. Latest stats and Z figures show just 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: over one hundred and twenty four thousand migrant departures in 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 2: the year to October, up nearly seven percent, seventy one 8 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 2: thousand of them New Zealanders. What is pushing our best 9 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: and brightest out the door and is the grass really 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: greener on the other side Today on the Front Page 11 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: ends at Herald Business Editor at Large Liam dan Is 12 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 2: with us to dissect what draws Kiwi's abroad and what 13 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 2: it all means for the ones sticking around. First off, Liam, 14 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 2: tell me about these stats and Z figures. 15 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we've just had the last lot of migration 16 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 3: data that will get for the year and that takes 17 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: us up to the end of October, and they're still showing, 18 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 3: you know, quite historically high levels of departures of Kiwis 19 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: and other nationalities leaving long term and lower numbers arriving. 20 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 4: But the monthly change. 21 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 3: Does suggest that the worst of the brain drain is 22 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 3: behind us, so we're seeing that that net migration figure 23 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 3: up slightly. So eleven thousand, three hundred was the net 24 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 3: migration number that the sort of excess population gain through 25 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 3: to the end of October, and that's yeah, that's better 26 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 3: than it was. We'd been down to around nine thousand 27 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 3: and something at one point. But all of this is 28 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: you know, historically very low considering you know, in those 29 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 3: big years post COVID, we were seeing like. 30 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 4: Migration gains above. 31 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: One hundred thousand I think we had one hundred thirty 32 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 3: six or something like that net migration at one point, 33 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 3: which was a record boom. Obviously we've gone from boom 34 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 3: to bust, but hopefully it's some signs there that that's 35 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 3: starting to correct. 36 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: And so what's the poll for Kiwi's overseas? Where are 37 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 2: they heading? 38 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,959 Speaker 3: Well, we don't get immediately get up to date numbers 39 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 3: around departures to Australia specifically, but we do know that 40 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 3: like somewhere around half to sixty percent of all the 41 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 3: migration out of New Zealand is towards Australia traditionally, so 42 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 3: I would say Australia is where people are headed. We've 43 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 3: seen numbers this year, suggesting that higher levels of younger 44 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 3: people are going to Australia. And the big push or 45 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 3: pull in either direction for migration is very much the economy, 46 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 3: very much the job market, the labor market. So you know, 47 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 3: if job prospects and wages are significantly better in Australia, 48 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 3: then you'll see that flow increase. I mean, you know, 49 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 3: historically it's tended to look a bit better in Australia. Yeah, 50 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 3: most of the time, but you know when that becomes exaggerated. 51 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 3: And in New Zealand, the job market has been really tough. 52 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 3: They haven't had the kind of short, sharp economic shock 53 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 3: that we've had in New Zealand, so they haven't you know, 54 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 3: and then there's some reasons for that, their interest rates 55 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 3: and the way that the Reserve Bank has done things 56 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 3: there has been to take a more you know, casual 57 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 3: pace or a more relaxed attitude to inflation. You know, 58 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 3: we've hit it pretty hard in New Zealand, and obviously 59 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: everybody knows we've had a pretty rough two maybe three 60 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: years compared to Australia. 61 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 2: And when it comes to the numbers and the ages 62 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 2: of people that are moving overseas as well, we've got that, 63 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: you know, eighteen to thirty year old bracket. That's generally 64 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 2: are we crowd, you know, going to London or going 65 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 2: to Australia for better opportunities, greener pastures. But what I've 66 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: found this year especially, and correct me if I'm wrong, 67 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: is that there are older people migrating overseass. Well does 68 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: that kind of give us a glimpse into how bad 69 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 2: the job market is here? 70 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 4: Yeah? I think that very much. Is the job market stuff. 71 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 4: So yeah, you're right. 72 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 3: The younger people, well, you can say, you know, they 73 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 3: are cooped up. A lot of people were cooped up 74 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:17,239 Speaker 3: through COVID. There was a bounce after COVID. Younger Kiwis 75 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 3: have always headed offshore to Australia, to the UK and 76 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 3: now increasingly if they can get the right visas for 77 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 3: the US and Japan and Southeast Asia. So you know, 78 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 3: I wouldn't be too worried about that. Hopefully they're going 79 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 3: to come back. I'm on that boat. My daughter's off 80 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 3: to Melbourne in February, you. 81 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: Know, oh yeah, flying the court to live. 82 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 4: Yeah. 83 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 3: But you know when older people who have established lives, 84 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 3: maybe have own property and all that sort of stuff, 85 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 3: that is a big effort to move countries, and I 86 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 3: don't think you do that unless you're feeling like the 87 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 3: opportunity is really lacking in your home country. I mean, 88 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 3: that's what we see drive immigration arrivals from some countries 89 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 3: into New Zealand, and unfortunately, I think that has been 90 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 3: the case. Is you know, we we've really the sentiment 91 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 3: in the New Zealand economy has been really bad for 92 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: the past couple of years. You know, we thought we 93 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 3: were having the bad year in twenty twenty four and 94 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 3: we're all going to survive till twenty twenty five, and 95 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 3: then really twenty twenty five has sort of been a 96 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 3: repeat of that. There are signs, and you know I 97 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 3: always touch wood and everything, but you know, there's there's 98 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 3: a lot of confidence that we are moving into a 99 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 3: real recovery. Now, however strong that turns out to be, 100 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 3: because you know, there's not it's not expected to be 101 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 3: a boom, but any improvement over what we've been through. 102 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: If we start to see the labor market turn around 103 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 3: in the next year ahead, then we will probably see 104 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 3: those migration figures continue to improve into a net gain 105 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:48,239 Speaker 3: for New Zealand. 106 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 2: Right, so those migration figures really do go hand in 107 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 2: hand with the unemployment figures. 108 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 3: Hey yeah, absolutely, and the it's job opportunity and so 109 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 3: in some ways it's not just the unemployment, it's the employment, 110 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 3: which is job creation and obviously wages. I mean, you know, 111 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 3: if you've got a high cost of living and inflation, 112 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 3: then higher wages are going to be appealing. But when 113 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 3: you look at Australia and New Zealand, now Australia has 114 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: actually got higher inflation than New Zealand. They're up at 115 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: three point eight percent inflation. They haven't cut their interest 116 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 3: rates the way we have here because of that, and 117 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 3: so there are some cost of living issues, you know, 118 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 3: being debated pretty intensely in Australia, and so as well 119 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 3: as the hope that New Zealand's economy sort of improves 120 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 3: in the next year, there is the possibility that life 121 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,559 Speaker 3: just isn't as easy or as great as it's cracked 122 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 3: up to be in Australia and the kind of economy 123 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 3: that they're going to have in the next couple of years, 124 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 3: especially once you move from you know, like I mentioned 125 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 3: my daughter, if you're going to Melbourne to live somewhere 126 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 3: in the inner city, in a flat and work in 127 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 3: hospitality and all that cool stuff. That's quite fun not 128 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 3: and you're very mobile. But when you talk about moving 129 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 3: the family and having to have a mortgage and and 130 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 3: really that full adult life, that's you know, a different story, 131 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 3: and you start to weigh the economic differential a lot 132 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 3: more carefully. 133 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 2: At that point, I think, yeah, so the grass may 134 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: seem greener on the other side, because I mean I 135 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: only know this because my parents ask me every time 136 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 2: I have with them what petrol with petrol prices are 137 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 2: and then they, you know, come back with me and 138 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 2: shock or about how expensive it is in New Zealand. 139 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: Dad always asks me, what's what's the price per kilo 140 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 2: for chicken lamb chops? 141 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 4: There we worry about. 142 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 3: We worry about the you know, things like the supermarket 143 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 3: prices and petrol and that sort of stuff. 144 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 4: But I think, you know, if you are. 145 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 3: Trying to buy a house in a in a sort 146 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 3: of in a suburb of Sydney or Melbourne, you know, 147 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: that's where you're suddenly blown out of the water in 148 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 3: terms of even even with a better, better wage, probably 149 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 3: in a basic job. So there are some things, I mean, 150 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 3: you know, there are parts of Australia probably where it's 151 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 3: still really appealing, but they are booming. So you know, 152 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: you've got Western Australia in Perth Adelaide obviously, and probably 153 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: still the parts of Queensland where kiwis are finding it 154 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 3: really good. There's still the government still probably well always 155 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: has more money than New Zealand's government, so it's able 156 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 3: to entice people with the kind of skills they need, 157 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 3: like nurses and police and all that. 158 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:27,119 Speaker 4: Sort of stuff. 159 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: So that's a but that is a constant historical drag 160 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 3: on New Zealand's younger population. So I doubt we're ever 161 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 3: going to see it, you know, completely go away. But 162 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 3: it's just at the kind of worrying levels we've seen 163 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 3: in the past year where it sort of felt like 164 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: we're losing an outsize number of people and that could 165 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 3: have an impact on our skills and our labor market. 166 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 3: You know, in the coming year or two, as our 167 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 3: market actually improves and we businesses start looking for workers again, 168 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: you know, will we have the skills in New Zealand, 169 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 3: we could suddenly go from you know, from that sort 170 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 3: of rising unemployment and a sort of a labor market 171 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 3: that's really weak to being at capacity again and that 172 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 3: drives inflation. 173 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: In recessionary times, as we've seen on our past, people 174 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: will make choices to go to places where they perceive 175 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: there's more opportunity, and then when there's a job of 176 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: our government is to create the conditions that they can 177 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: see a future here and that we can do that. 178 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 1: But we've got some work to do to me well, 179 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: i mean, when do you. 180 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: Think this country will be good enough for them to return? 181 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: Well, I mean we're doing everything. You can't say a date, 182 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: but what you can do is make sure everything you're 183 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: doing every day is about doing the things that if 184 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: I honestly believe, if we grow the economy, if we 185 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: restore or in order to deliver world class education, better healthcare, 186 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: that is the reason white people stay here. 187 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 2: So governments from Muldoon to lux And have always quipt 188 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 2: about raising the IQ of both countries when it comes 189 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 2: to Kiwi's going to Australia. But on this side of 190 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: the Tasman, what kind of retention policies or super or 191 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: tax tweaks or something do you think would actually stem 192 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: this tide? 193 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the bottom line is it's getting 194 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 3: wages up, and of course it's got to be getting 195 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 3: wages up without just artificially inflating them. I mean, New 196 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 3: Zealand's done some work around the minimum wage under the 197 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 3: last labor government, which probably makes the entry level jobs 198 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 3: more appealing here, but probably also has meant that there's 199 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 3: been some sort of inflationary pressure. So these are the 200 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 3: productivity challenges to make your economy more efficient and create 201 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 3: wealth progress towards more wealthy economy In real terms. Both 202 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 3: New Zealand and Australia actually have very similar issues with 203 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 3: that right at the moment. So while the top level 204 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 3: in Australia is sort of frothier and there's more money, 205 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 3: it's a bigger country, it's got bigger financial markets and 206 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 3: all these things going for it, not to mention the 207 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 3: you know, the huge amount of super superanuation money and 208 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 3: all that sort of stuff underlying it. Their treasury is 209 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 3: saying the same things to their government that our treasury 210 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 3: is saying, which is that the economy is not sort 211 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 3: of structured well enough to go through a big economic 212 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 3: boom without hitting capacity constraints. And that just is what 213 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 3: economists say when they mean, you know, a speed limit 214 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 3: to the economy. The point at which the economy can't 215 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 3: grow any faster without becoming inflationary and interest rates having 216 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 3: to go up. So you know, Australia, because it's kept growing, 217 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 3: is very near that at the moment you're seeing, you know, 218 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 3: as I mentioned, higher inflation and the Reserve Bank. 219 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 4: They're talking about people talking. 220 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 3: About the Reserve Bank of Australia having to put rates 221 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 3: up the next move they've held them for the past 222 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 3: few decisions, and maybe putting them up much sooner than 223 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 3: new Zen. 224 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 2: You've covered brain drains before. It's kind of like a 225 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 2: buzz term hanging whenever there's a lot of kiwis going overseas, 226 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 2: not even just to Australia but Europe and like you said, 227 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: the US as well. Compared to the two thousands peaks. 228 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 2: What's different this time, do you think? 229 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 4: Yeah? 230 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 3: I mean, in some ways, it's not necessarily that different. 231 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 3: It's always there is always a cycle, and there's a 232 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 3: cyclical element to it. It's just I think this one 233 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 3: is we've gone from a record high to not quite 234 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 3: record lows because we've been into the negative net migration before, 235 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 3: but down to historic lows below the historic average very quickly. 236 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 3: So for the rest of you know, for the wider 237 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 3: economy to be running with you know, like population gains 238 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 3: every year of around one hundred thousand to suddenly only 239 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 3: getting about ten thousand a year. That has a huge 240 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 3: impact on, you know, the way that businesses have to 241 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 3: gear themselves for an economy. So construction, car sales, you know, 242 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 3: retail to some extent, the housing market are underpinned by 243 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 3: population growth, or get used to being underpinned by population 244 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 3: growth and quite large population growth traditionally, and suddenly that's 245 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 3: not there. That's what the economists will call ahead wind. 246 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 3: So that's another reason that the downturn in New Zealand 247 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 3: may have been a bit worse than expected. It's kind 248 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 3: of a chicken and egg what comes first, because, as 249 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 3: I say, the bad job market, people leave, but then 250 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 3: as they leave, there's a few people spending money and 251 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 3: that contributes. So you've got to break that cycle. And yeah, 252 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 3: I think you know, a lot of that is sentiment 253 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 3: and confidence and how people feel about the country they're 254 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 3: living in. So that's the challenge for the government. That's 255 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 3: Chris Luxen's mojo line, you know, getting mojo back into 256 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 3: New Zealand so people feel better. Young people feel like 257 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 3: this country has got opportunity and presents them with a 258 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 3: sort of viable future, and maybe we're just starting to 259 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: see some signs. Certainly there's a bit of a down 260 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 3: so long it looks like up vibe to it, because 261 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 3: you know, it's not like we're everybody's suddenly over the 262 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 3: moon confident, but people aren't as gloomy as they were, say, 263 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: six months ago in this country and that's looking promising. 264 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, from all of the columns you've written and the 265 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 2: people that you've spoken to and the conversations that you've 266 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 2: had with experts and things like that, do you have 267 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: kind of I mean, if you were to think about it, 268 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 2: what are the first two or three things that quickly 269 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: come to mind that you would say to a young 270 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 2: person to try and change their mind, or would you 271 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 2: even I. 272 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 4: Haven't well, you know, I've mentioned my daughter. 273 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 3: I haven't tried to change your mind, because I think 274 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 3: that is I think it's a great thing on many 275 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 3: levels that Kiwis go out to the world, because we 276 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 3: can get a bit insular in New Zealand and we 277 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 3: and so you know, and in my case, you know, 278 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 3: working and living in London, you know, changed my perspective 279 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 3: on the world. You bring back a lot of extra 280 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 3: experience and knowledge, and I think that's important for New Zealand. 281 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 3: It's just just a case of keeping it in balance. 282 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 3: I would certainly reiterate to people longer term in terms 283 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 3: of building a life here, that New Zealand is really 284 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 3: well placed in the world if we can get a 285 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 3: few things structurally fixed up in our economy to be 286 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 3: one of the greatest and I think is one of 287 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 3: the greatest places to live in the world. Still, there 288 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 3: are some structural and balances in the economy that mean 289 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 3: that we've been struggling to grow at a decent pace. 290 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 3: There'll always be cyclical ups and downs. 291 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 4: I mean, we. 292 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 3: Grow grass and produce meat and dairy and that goes 293 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 3: out to the world and those prices go up and down. 294 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 3: New Zealand has sort of buffeted along by the global 295 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 3: economy and fuels those ups and downs quite strongly because 296 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 3: we're a small, open economy. But you know, in terms 297 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 3: of lifestyle and opportunity, I think I think it's still 298 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 3: there and will certainly come back. I think there's plenty 299 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 3: of potential that you've only. 300 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 4: Got to look at. 301 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 3: How you know, ratings agencies look at New Zealand how 302 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 3: international commentators and economists like some of the most upbeat 303 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 3: economists about New Zealand. I talk to the Australian economists, 304 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: they look at us and go, what are you complaining about? 305 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's the vibe I get them from them. 306 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for joining us, Liam Jeers, Chelsea. That set 307 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 2: for this episode of the Front Page. You can read 308 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 2: more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld 309 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by 310 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 2: Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor. 311 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio 312 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,479 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow 313 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 2: for another look behind the headlines.