1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:01,840
Speaker 1: Some time to say good afternoon or is it good

2
00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:04,360
Speaker 1: evening now? To Liam Dan New Zealand Heerild Business Editor

3
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 1: at large, Liam High, good tim so well. New Zealand's

4
00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:09,879
Speaker 1: climbed out of recession. Woohoo.

5
00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really hard to know. Look that it was

6
00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,680
Speaker 2: a better than expected result. It's definitely a good thing.

7
00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 2: Let's say we're who before we get into the final

8
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 2: details of going through the economist reports that they're very

9
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,800
Speaker 2: quick to move into cautious mode and start telling us,

10
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 2: you know why, we can't be celebrating yet. But look,

11
00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 2: it's better than the alternative, which was that it came

12
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,000
Speaker 2: in worse than expected. I think people were probably feeling

13
00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,440
Speaker 2: a bit more gloomy, certainly in the cities. I think.

14
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 1: So the economy grew zero point seven in the December quarter,

15
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 1: better than the economists had predicted. Nikola Willis was upbeat

16
00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,960
Speaker 1: on the show an hour ago.

17
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 3: Tells us that we're turning the corner, which is what

18
00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:55,920
Speaker 3: New Zealand does need after a very tough time with

19
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 3: high inflation, high interest rates and growth bouncing along the bottom.

20
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 3: The numbers today are better than was forecast and tell

21
00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,080
Speaker 3: us that recovery is underway.

22
00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:08,319
Speaker 1: So actually she didn't sound as up beat as I

23
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,320
Speaker 1: thought she would be, maybe because we're still digging ourselves out.

24
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,880
Speaker 2: Well, she knows, she's got to be a bit cautious, right, Yeah. Look, look,

25
00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:20,279
Speaker 2: this quarter we're currently in has felt like it hasn't

26
00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:25,320
Speaker 2: been a boomer. We've seen some fairly grim consumer confidence

27
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,000
Speaker 2: numbers in the last week or so, and there's just

28
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,800
Speaker 2: a feeling that maybe you know, the uncertainty around well

29
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,039
Speaker 2: the global economy, but also things like you know, New

30
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:39,199
Speaker 2: Zealand's housing market just hasn't surged back quite as quickly

31
00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,240
Speaker 2: as people might have hoped from the lower interest rates.

32
00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,120
Speaker 2: And you know, the things that underpinned this GDP result

33
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 2: were stronger tourism, which which sort of lifted retail spending

34
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,360
Speaker 2: and spending by tourists lifted some of the categories. And

35
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,160
Speaker 2: of course the really good you know, dairy and meat

36
00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 2: export conditions we've had and prices we've had has lifted

37
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:04,040
Speaker 2: primary sector. But then you know, in the cities, which

38
00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 2: is where I'm doing most of my living, you know,

39
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,400
Speaker 2: people are still struggling, you know, with the cost of

40
00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,919
Speaker 2: living and with with sort of insecurity about jobs and

41
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 2: rising unemployment and those sort of things. So I think,

42
00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,120
Speaker 2: you know, it's not necessarily a straight line recovery, and

43
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,400
Speaker 2: we have to be prepared for them, you know, maybe

44
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:24,840
Speaker 2: to stare a little bit. I'd like to think we

45
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,639
Speaker 2: don't go back, you know, we will keep growing.

46
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,520
Speaker 1: I think, well, you know, it's hard for the average

47
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,440
Speaker 1: sort of person to work out what their reactions should be.

48
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,519
Speaker 1: So what's the reaction of the country's economists.

49
00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,840
Speaker 2: Well, yes, definitely cautious. You know, there's saying I think

50
00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 2: they're agreeing that is, you know, it is a corner

51
00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,639
Speaker 2: turned or the first step on a road to recovery.

52
00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 2: I think that the Kiwi Bank guys said, and even

53
00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 2: even Stephen Topless at Benz, who's pretty pretty cautious, he

54
00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 2: was saying, it's it's the start of recovery. But you know,

55
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,640
Speaker 2: he points out that on the current numbers, you know,

56
00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,280
Speaker 2: on the GDP per capita, you've got to get to

57
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,240
Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight before we're back to the to the

58
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,480
Speaker 2: kind of peaks we had before the downturn started. So

59
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 2: that's a long slow recovery on a per capita basis,

60
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 2: which it was nice to see per capita GDP turn,

61
00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,800
Speaker 2: but that's partly a fact a function of few you know,

62
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,519
Speaker 2: slow population growth, so that sort of sorts itself.

63
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I enjoyed the I think it was

64
00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,519
Speaker 1: Qbank's economists you said, we're crawling out of recession, which

65
00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,400
Speaker 1: was slightly we're putting it. What are the chances of

66
00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,080
Speaker 1: the number being revised down later on, because you know,

67
00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,840
Speaker 1: we've seen it happen before, and we yeah.

68
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,520
Speaker 2: Look it's entirely possible. I mean, could could be revised

69
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,760
Speaker 2: up to I mean that the difficulty is, it seems

70
00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 2: to be that capturing everything that moves in the economy

71
00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,120
Speaker 2: a very difficult task and you've got to get it

72
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,880
Speaker 2: for the record, absolutely right. So if it turns out

73
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 2: that they've they need longer and then it becomes fear

74
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,840
Speaker 2: that it could be revised, but I wouldn't panic about that.

75
00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,480
Speaker 2: It's it's it's like we had some bad revisions that

76
00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 2: that you know, that that really slammed home the pain

77
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,040
Speaker 2: of the recession in the middle of last year. But

78
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 2: the latest numbers there wasn't too much revision there to

79
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,280
Speaker 2: the to the earlier numbers. I think I think you know,

80
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 2: we are seeing you know, New Zealand does tend to

81
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,159
Speaker 2: hum when the dairy industry hums, and that's obviously good

82
00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,680
Speaker 2: tourism coming back to sort of pre COVID levels. At

83
00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 2: least you can say this is the basics of the

84
00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,600
Speaker 2: economy coming right. So if the if these things continue

85
00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:32,320
Speaker 2: to stay buoyant, and then interest rates continue to fall,

86
00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,320
Speaker 2: then you start to get the frothier stuff, the consumer

87
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 2: spending and and and and things, you know, central city

88
00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 2: workers and things starting to feel more confident, and hopefully

89
00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 2: that follows and this this might be the kind of

90
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 2: psychological boost that helps us on our way.

91
00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,880
Speaker 1: Excellent. Hey, thanks so much, Liam. That's Liam down New

92
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 1: Zealand Hero Business Editor at Large. For more from Heather

93
00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,559
Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks.

94
00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

95
00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.