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Speaker 1: Jamie mckaius hosted the Countries with me tonight. Hi Jamie,

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Speaker 1: good ay, Ryan, Good to have you back. Now the

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Speaker 1: government changes prices looking pretty good, and we've got sentiment

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Speaker 1: up for our sheep and beef farmers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, this is the first Rabobank Rural Confidence survey

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five and it's following on from a

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Speaker 2: couple of better ones. Remember we were almost at rock

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Speaker 2: bottom at the middle of last year, so we've bounced

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Speaker 2: three in a row. This one, interestingly, Ryan, is at

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Speaker 2: a really good level plus forty four percent of farmers confident.

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Speaker 2: This is the second highest net confidence in the last decade,

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Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, when we had a plus fifty two number.

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Speaker 2: This one's being driven interestingly by sheep and beef farmers

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Speaker 2: who have seen record prices for beef, vastly improved prices

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Speaker 2: for lamb and mutton. Minds you they could be better.

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Speaker 2: Wool stare no good or not strong, wills not very

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Speaker 2: good at all. Even beef farmers are driving the confidence

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Speaker 2: in this one. The last survey of last year was

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Speaker 2: driven by the dairy farmers. Now reasons for farmers being

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Speaker 2: confident no surprise here higher commodity prices sixty two percent,

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Speaker 2: falling interest rates twenty two percent. They're just going down

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Speaker 2: more slowly, perhaps than farmers wanted. For those who were

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Speaker 2: feeling a bit negative, the old hardy annual government intervention

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Speaker 2: and policies thirty seven percent. Although to be fair, Ryan,

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Speaker 2: this government couldn't be much more farmer friendly if they tried,

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Speaker 2: And the one that I would have thought would have

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Speaker 2: been the highest was rising input prices at thirty three percent.

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Speaker 2: So look, we'll take this one. I know Rabobank pretty

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Speaker 2: chfed with it, and I think the government will be

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Speaker 2: pretty chuffed with it. The farmers are, but unfortunately for

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Speaker 2: the farmers and the government, there's not enough of them

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Speaker 2: to vote the government in or out.

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Speaker 1: That's right, Hey, another global do trade option tonight. We're

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Speaker 1: doing it to come back a pair back of a little.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's what my man that Jardin says. I'll give

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Speaker 2: them a shameless plughead of commodities. Mike McIntyre one or

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Speaker 2: two percent fall. If we do get that'll be get

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Speaker 2: a result like that. It'll be a third relatively small

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Speaker 2: fall in a row. But it's been pretty damn good,

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Speaker 2: and we know that the banks and Fonterra are all

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Speaker 2: sitting at ten dollars payouts for this season. But importantly,

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Speaker 2: darien z came out and said they're now forecasting for

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Speaker 2: the twenty five twenty six season, ie next season, ten

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Speaker 2: dollars as well. In fact, they're that they're thrown out.

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Speaker 2: Ten dollars thirteen is their forecast milk price. Their forecast

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Speaker 2: milk price for this season is ten dollars four Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: in the past twenty five years, whenever we've had a

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Speaker 2: record milk price, we've never followed it. We've never backed

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Speaker 2: it up with another good one. So maybe we can

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Speaker 2: break the curse of the record milk price. So and

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Speaker 2: you know, while ten dollars sounds wonderful and historically it

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Speaker 2: will be a record, the problem with business or farming

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Speaker 2: or anything is just the cost of running things these

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Speaker 2: days is pretty expensive. So for your ten dollars thirteen

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Speaker 2: for next season, it's going to cost you eight dollars

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Speaker 2: fifty seven to produce that milk. So there is a

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Speaker 2: margin there, perhaps not the best margin in the past

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Speaker 2: ten years. I think that would be twenty thirteen fourteen. Similarly,

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Speaker 2: for this year, darien Zetta saying just over ten dollars,

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Speaker 2: ten dollars four, eight dollars fifty four, very similar figures

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Speaker 2: to produce that milk. So once again, those are reasonable margins,

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Speaker 2: certainly better than we've had in recent years, and the

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Speaker 2: futures market just to take it off, currently sitting at

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Speaker 2: ten dollars fifteen for this season. They're still down at

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Speaker 2: nine forty five for next season. But there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of water to go under the bridge or milk to

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Speaker 2: go through the vat before we worry about twenty five

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Speaker 2: twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Ryan, Yeah, good point, Jamie, Thank you for that. Host

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Speaker 1: of the Country.

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