Speaker 1: Kyota.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Emotional scenes
Speaker 2: in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families
Speaker 2: across Israel. Bus loads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived
Speaker 2: to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange broken by
Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Trump and.
Speaker 2: Other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a
Speaker 2: summit in Egypt. So could all of this bring lasting
Speaker 2: peace to the region? Today on the front page, University
Speaker 2: of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with us
Speaker 2: to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the
Speaker 2: historic dawn of a new Middle East. So, Robert, incredible
Speaker 2: scenes seeing the last twenty living hostages reunite with family members.
Speaker 1: Tell me how has all this come about?
Speaker 3: Well, it's come about in quite short order. Because you
Speaker 3: remember that when mister Trump first came to office for
Speaker 3: the second time in January this year, he told Natanni
Speaker 3: to finish the job. He said that on the campaign trail,
Speaker 3: But to his credit, he did oversee a cease fire
Speaker 3: in January of this year and put pressure on Neatni
Speaker 3: to accept it. But mister Netni who exited from the
Speaker 3: second phase of the ceasefire in March of this year
Speaker 3: without consequence, and that upset of many people looking in
Speaker 3: or looking from abut file. Mister nen who had a
Speaker 3: choice by the second phase of the ceasefire that was
Speaker 3: started in January, he could accept all the remaining hostages
Speaker 3: and bringing it permanent into the war. He chose not
Speaker 3: to have the hostages at that stage and continue the war.
Speaker 3: But since then a lot has happened, and the real catalyst,
Speaker 3: I think was Israel's attack on Kata in Doha in
Speaker 3: I think it was around about early September round about
Speaker 3: that period, and both Saudi Arabia and Katar and a
Speaker 3: number of other Arab countries Egypt, which are all important
Speaker 3: to the administration, I think basically read the right actor
Speaker 3: Trump and said this has got to stop because Kata
Speaker 3: had been involved in mediation efforts at the request of
Speaker 3: Israel and the United States, and they were absolutely outraged
Speaker 3: by the fact that Israel without warning killed five Hamas
Speaker 3: officials in Doha and also a Qatari security official. And
Speaker 3: I think mister Trump was suddenly presented with tough choices
Speaker 3: he could continue to give mister Yahoo a blank check,
Speaker 3: or he could listen to countries like Katar, where America
Speaker 3: has its largest military base in the Middle East, and
Speaker 3: he decided, I think, to try to bring about a
Speaker 3: peace settlement in light of that incident. So I do
Speaker 3: think the crucial catalyst for this was the Israeli attack
Speaker 3: on a close ally of the United States cut Art,
Speaker 3: and I think that I think they made it quite clear.
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia and Katar said to mister Trump, you can't
Speaker 3: have your cake and eat it. You can't go on
Speaker 3: supporting Netinaho while he attacks us. So you're going to
Speaker 3: have to start exerting some leadership here. And the Americans
Speaker 3: have always had leverage in this situation.
Speaker 2: Well, Trump has said that the long and painful nightmare
Speaker 2: is finally over, is it.
Speaker 3: No? No, this is a well come step forward. Let's
Speaker 3: be quite clear, this situation didn't occur overnight. It's been
Speaker 3: two years in the making. Following the dreadful Hamas a
Speaker 3: terrorist attack on Israel, we then had mister Nilhu's campaign
Speaker 3: of mighty vengeance. Something like more than sixty seven thousand
Speaker 3: Palestinians have died, an intensive bombardment of gals that eighty
Speaker 3: percent of the Palestinians killed have been civilians, including around
Speaker 3: twenty thousand children. So there's been enormous and unimaginable suffering.
Speaker 3: So to declare it over maybe premature. What we can
Speaker 3: see is that all sides have signed up to the
Speaker 3: first phase of the agreement, and the first phase involves
Speaker 3: all living Israeli hostages being released. That's happened. In return,
Speaker 3: Israel has released about two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including four
Speaker 3: hundred children. A key part of the first phase is
Speaker 3: the unrestricted distribution of humanitarian aid. In Gaza, five hundred
Speaker 3: thousand Palestinians, according to the UN, are currently facing starvation.
Speaker 3: So the ceasefire could not come quick enough and it's welcome. Also,
Speaker 3: it's welcome the hostages have been released, and it's welcome
Speaker 3: that long last, we hope unrestricted distribution of food aid
Speaker 3: will occur.
Speaker 1: How can we ensure that that actually happens.
Speaker 3: Well, I think, first of all, mister Trump has put
Speaker 3: his name to it happening, so he's now got a
Speaker 3: stake having extended the brand, the Trump brand, if you
Speaker 3: want to put it that way, to peace, and I
Speaker 3: think many Arab countries which want a two state solution,
Speaker 3: as does much of the community, including the international community,
Speaker 3: including our country, believe that mister Trump is the person
Speaker 3: to exercise leverage with mister Nian Yahoo. But it's going
Speaker 3: to be The reason I expressed caution at the outset
Speaker 3: Chelsea in response to your question, is that the easy
Speaker 3: part has been done, returning hostages, bringing a cease fire,
Speaker 3: telling the military to stop bombarding Gaza, and hopefully allowing
Speaker 3: trucks which have been waiting in the border laden with
Speaker 3: food to go in. The more difficult part is now
Speaker 3: the future of Gaza. Under the agreement, Israel has to
Speaker 3: carry out a phased withdrawal in return for Hamas disarming.
Speaker 3: But here comes a particular problem. Hamas may be reluctant
Speaker 3: to disarm because it's given up its only form of
Speaker 3: leaver ridge, which is the hostages. Also, mister netn Yahoo
Speaker 3: has given no indication he will accept a Palestinian state.
Speaker 3: That's a problem because, and it's a huge omission. In
Speaker 3: the twenty point plan, there is no commit no explicit
Speaker 3: commitment to the Palestinian right of political self determination. Are
Speaker 3: right by the way for all peoples under the UN
Speaker 3: Charter and this, you can see a potential stumbling block
Speaker 3: occurring here. Now, I think countries like kata Egypt and
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia have no illusions about the difficulty ahead, but
Speaker 3: I think they believe it's it's a calculated risk worth
Speaker 3: taking because if mister Trump on board, if mister netna
Speaker 3: Who starts digging in and refusing to withdraw his forces,
Speaker 3: then I think they calculate mister Trump will feel sufficiently
Speaker 3: invested to start leaning on Netta Yahu.
Speaker 1: But it is Trump.
Speaker 2: The only reason why netnya who will do that?
Speaker 1: Is that what we're counting on here.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean, you know, let's be quite clear,
Speaker 3: it's welcome that mister Trump has taken this step. Both
Speaker 3: the bidenmenstration and the Trump administration bear enormous responsibility for
Speaker 3: the fact that ninety two percent of all residential buildings
Speaker 3: have been destroyed in Gaza and about ninety percent of
Speaker 3: Palestines have been displaced. Without American power backing Israel, none
Speaker 3: of this could happen. Four fifths of the munitions used
Speaker 3: in Gaza have been provided by the United States, So
Speaker 3: it's slightly ironic when mister Trump presents America as being
Speaker 3: you know the peacemaker this situation, both Israel and America bear,
Speaker 3: as well as Hamas, considerable responsibility for the carnage that's occurred.
Speaker 3: It's welcome, though, that mister Trump has decided that trajectory
Speaker 3: can't continue. And I think another big sticking point in
Speaker 3: the second phase of this agreement, as well as whether
Speaker 3: mister Nick who can be persuaded to accept a Palestinian
Speaker 3: state without Hamas's involvement, Another sticking point will be the
Speaker 3: huge task of rebuilding Gaza. Now. Mister Trump said in
Speaker 3: his speech in Shake in Egypt Charma l Shake, he
Speaker 3: said that a number of wealthy Arab countries will be
Speaker 3: happy to support the rebuilding of Gaza. Well, I'm not
Speaker 3: sure Israel. How does Israel feel about that? Because they're responsible,
Speaker 3: the IDEF is responsible for leveling Gaza, will they be
Speaker 3: comfortable about many of their neighbors rebuilding Gaza? That raises
Speaker 3: the question, shouldn't Israel? Shouldn't there be some accountability for
Speaker 3: what Israel has done? And just imagine how angry many
Speaker 3: Palestinians are once they get over this terrible ideal of
Speaker 3: not having enough food and dodging in the bullets and bombs.
Speaker 3: Once their life becomes the new normal, then most of
Speaker 3: them haven't got a home to return too. So you've
Speaker 3: got a lot of potential sources of tension ahead. But yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's I think a lot will depend
Speaker 3: whether this piece can be sustained on whether mister Trump's
Speaker 3: attention can be sustained on the problem. I think one
Speaker 3: or two actors have signed up to this on the
Speaker 3: assumption either that the President's attention can be sustained because
Speaker 3: he's put his name to it, or that it can't
Speaker 3: be sustained. And I think this is the assumption mister
Speaker 3: Nettignan who is adhering too, and he can quietly ignore
Speaker 3: the president.
Speaker 4: With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of
Speaker 4: millions have finally been answered, as you know, the hostages
Speaker 4: have been returned, and further work goes on having to
Speaker 4: do with the sadly to save buddies. Together, we've achieved
Speaker 4: what everybody said was impossible. At long last, we have
Speaker 4: peace in the Middle East. And it's a very simple
Speaker 4: expression piece in the Middle East, and we've heard it
Speaker 4: for many years, but nobody thought it could ever get there,
Speaker 4: And now we're there.
Speaker 2: Wow, Trump's got the full attention because he's after a
Speaker 2: Nobel Peace Prize next time round, isn't he?
Speaker 1: So there is.
Speaker 3: Something round for he was going for one this time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's the nominations closed, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3: But this is ironic, isn't it? Because mister Trump has
Speaker 3: been restricting the rights of people within the United States,
Speaker 3: particularly on university campuses, who have been demanding US ease
Speaker 3: firing Gaza, and suddenly he's embraced the idea and he
Speaker 3: wants a Nobel Peace Prize for belatedly accepting an idea
Speaker 3: that much of the international community. It shouldn't be forgotten,
Speaker 3: Chelsea that on the twenty seventh October twenty twenty three,
Speaker 3: the majority of countries more than one hundred and forty
Speaker 3: what did the immediate cease fire? It was the United
Speaker 3: States under the Biden administration, which five times exercised the
Speaker 3: veto to prevent the cease fire, and then the Trump
Speaker 3: administration exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire. So
Speaker 3: you know, we've got to put this in some ports persective.
Speaker 3: Just because mister Trump was the ne Elberg Beace Prize.
Speaker 3: It's not just based on performative acts. It's also based
Speaker 3: on sustained commitment and demonstrated dedication. I'm not sure that's
Speaker 3: self evidently the case.
Speaker 2: I saw Trump posing with other world leaders in Egypt
Speaker 2: behind that big piece twenty twenty five sign one person
Speaker 2: not in attendance though, Benjamin Netanya, who should we read
Speaker 2: into that?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: I think some of the leaders made it quite clear,
Speaker 3: you know, mister nettnia who's under an arrest warrant from
Speaker 3: the International Criminal Court. In addition, a number of countries,
Speaker 3: Turkey in particular, indicated they would not attend if Nettignao,
Speaker 3: who does actually turn up, I think the Americans probably
Speaker 3: prevailed or Nettnao who not to turn up, given the
Speaker 3: reaction that mister Trump was getting from countries that he
Speaker 3: wants to have constructive relations with, such as Turkey, which
Speaker 3: you know, mister Trump went out of his way to
Speaker 3: praise Turkey, mister Odowan at the summit in Egypt. The
Speaker 3: crucial thing here is, however, we're not going to get
Speaker 3: a stable or reliable peace in the Middle East until
Speaker 3: Israel's desire for security is matched by a recognition by
Speaker 3: an Israeli leader. The Palestinians need a peaceful path towards
Speaker 3: political self determination. The Hamas issue is a side show. Basically,
Speaker 3: one of the reasons Hamas Scott leverage is because Israel,
Speaker 3: according to the International Court of Justice, illegally occupies three
Speaker 3: Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem or the West Bank and Gaza.
Speaker 3: So until that picture changes, until Israel recognizes that their
Speaker 3: long term security cannot be achieved by military means, a
Speaker 3: position our Foreign minister has always maintained to be the case,
Speaker 3: and I agree with him that there's no military solution.
Speaker 3: You can't bomb your wage of security. Until the post
Speaker 3: unies are given the option of ignoring Hamas and forming
Speaker 3: their own state, then this situation is likely to flare
Speaker 3: up again. In other words, if mister Netnia, who thinks
Speaker 3: he can simply have fabulous relations with always Arab neighbors
Speaker 3: backed by the United States, and basically take over the
Speaker 3: West Bank and virtually control Gaza, then I think this
Speaker 3: thing will quickly fall apart.
Speaker 2: What is the key ingredient that needs to happen for
Speaker 2: it not to fall apart like we've seen it fall
Speaker 2: apart before.
Speaker 3: Well, As I said, at the risk of repetition, I
Speaker 3: think there needs to be a recognition in televisi in
Speaker 3: Israel that the Palestinians. They came close to it in
Speaker 3: the Oslo process in the early nineties of recognizing you
Speaker 3: cannot simply exclude another people from achieving statehood, and the
Speaker 3: State of Israel was created in nineteen forty eight. That
Speaker 3: resulted in the displacement of a lot of Palestinians. No
Speaker 3: one suggesting in their right mind that we can go
Speaker 3: back to that and all the Israelis leave. I think
Speaker 3: what we could hope for, however, is two states living
Speaker 3: side by side, and a Palestinian state being based on
Speaker 3: the territories of the West Bank, which are currently occupied
Speaker 3: Gaza and East Jerusalem. And that's how the Palestinians see it.
Speaker 3: So they're prepared to recognize and accept Israel, but they
Speaker 3: do want those territories to be liberated, as they see it.
Speaker 2: And does all this hinge on the fact that every
Speaker 2: member of Hamas put down their weapons and say enough
Speaker 2: is enough.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know this, be quite clear about this.
Speaker 3: Hamas is a terrorist organization, but it's also a resistance group.
Speaker 3: That is to say, Hamas only came into being because,
Speaker 3: first of all, the Israelis did not take the Palestinian
Speaker 3: authority seriously and sidelined it in the West Bank. And
Speaker 3: Hamas presents itself as a militant resistance group to Israeli occupation,
Speaker 3: so it's a child or an offshoot of occupation. If
Speaker 3: you want to defang or undermine Hamas, you need to
Speaker 3: give Palestinians a peaceful path to self determination. It was
Speaker 3: John F. Kennedy who said shortly before he was killed,
Speaker 3: if the path to peaceful self determination for people is blocked,
Speaker 3: then extremism and terrorism is surely follow and unfortunately least
Speaker 3: is very very much confirmed. I think the wisdom of
Speaker 3: those words. It's not going to be an easy path.
Speaker 3: But there are a number of people in Israel I
Speaker 3: would say that, a distinct minority who believe that there
Speaker 3: has to be a mutual understanding between the Palestins and
Speaker 3: the Israelis along the lines we've discussed.
Speaker 2: So what are the next steps of this ceasefire plan.
Speaker 3: Well, the next steps we understand is for there to
Speaker 3: be the appointment of non political, technocratic Palestinians to run Gaza,
Speaker 3: at least the part of it where Israel doesn't control,
Speaker 3: and that governance body will be overseen by what mister
Speaker 3: Trump called a Board of Peace headed by himself and
Speaker 3: including people like Tony Blair, who's got enormous baggage in
Speaker 3: the Middle East area.
Speaker 1: I mean, mister Blair get along with them the first
Speaker 1: time round?
Speaker 2: Did he well?
Speaker 3: No, mister Blair has been widely criticized because for many
Speaker 3: Arabs states, mister Blair's reputation has been tainted by his
Speaker 3: involvement in the invasion of it Raq giving him green
Speaker 3: light to America going ahead. But also he's had other
Speaker 3: involvements with in the quartet as it was Corn and
Speaker 3: it's quite a controversial move. I mean. The crucial thing,
Speaker 3: I think from the point of view of Arab states
Speaker 3: will be some recognition the Palestinians have a part to
Speaker 3: play in determining their own destiny, because at the moment,
Speaker 3: what is conspicuous is absent from the Board of Peace
Speaker 3: or Palestinian representatives.
Speaker 5: Now, these are first steps, and anybody that's ever had
Speaker 5: any regard to the history of this area will know
Speaker 5: to be cautious. However, you've got our biggest cross People
Speaker 5: in different countries are putting a lot of work into this,
Speaker 5: and it is possible, just hopefully that peace will be
Speaker 5: breaking out and it'll be permanent.
Speaker 2: How do we know that this isn't going to fall over?
Speaker 3: We don't. But unless you know, life is in politics
Speaker 3: is often a choice between the disagreeable or the intolerable,
Speaker 3: and the situation we have just witnessed the last two
Speaker 3: years for most of us was intolerable. So what's happening
Speaker 3: now maybe not be perfectly agreeable, but at least it
Speaker 3: represents a possibility of movement. So what I found slightly
Speaker 3: encouraging is that many of the Arabs countries, like Egypt,
Speaker 3: which borders Gaza Saudi Arabia Both Saudi Arabian Egypt are
Speaker 3: close alli of the United States, as is Katar. They
Speaker 3: seem determined now, and it's belated. I wonder where they
Speaker 3: were for the first two years of this crisis, because
Speaker 3: they remained distinctly limp and weak and not demanding justice
Speaker 3: for the Palestinians. But they now have seem to it
Speaker 3: after the attack by Israel and Katar reached a new
Speaker 3: resolution that there must be a two states solution and
Speaker 3: if there isn't, their own security is possibly threatened. So
Speaker 3: and now this presents mister Trump with I think more constraints.
Speaker 3: American decision makers have traditionally been pro Israeli, and they've
Speaker 3: usually been very supportive of israel I. Think what may
Speaker 3: be happening from here on in We don't know, but
Speaker 3: at least the expectation is amongst leaders from Turkey, is Indonesia, Egypt,
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, is that mister Trump's going to be more
Speaker 3: even handed from now on and begin to take into
Speaker 3: account the aspirations of the Palestinians as well as the Israelis.
Speaker 3: We don't know whether that hope will be realized or
Speaker 3: whether it will not be realized, but it's certainly bringing
Speaker 3: a cease fire to a situation of unimaginable suffering. I mean,
Speaker 3: quite frankly, it's been an international disgrace Chelsea. And it's
Speaker 3: not just the Israelis and the Americans bearing responsibility for it,
Speaker 3: as well as Amas. You have to think more deeply
Speaker 3: and say, where was the UN Security Council. You know,
Speaker 3: this organization has the responsibility to uphold global peace and security.
Speaker 3: It was found wanting when the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's
Speaker 3: been found wanting in the situation we've just wanted the
Speaker 3: last year. It was failed to present itself as a
Speaker 3: barrier to war and peace. Why because five members of
Speaker 3: the Security Council can exercise the veto to perpetuate conflicts
Speaker 3: about gaza. So one thing I'd like to see is
Speaker 3: steps taken to ensure there can be no more gazas.
Speaker 3: What does that mean. It means reform with U N
Speaker 3: Security Council. We have to constrain the veto powers of
Speaker 3: five countries. In the twenty first century, We're in a
Speaker 3: ridiculous situation where five countries determine matters of war and
Speaker 3: peace for the whole planet. So while they've got that
Speaker 3: nice little perk of a veto, the rest of the
Speaker 3: world is paying the price for that perk, and I'm
Speaker 3: not sure the rest of the world wants to put
Speaker 3: up with it for too long.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
Speaker 2: at enziherld dot co dot nz.
Speaker 1: The Front Page is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin,
Speaker 1: who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
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