1 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Kyota. 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Emotional scenes 4 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: across Israel. Bus loads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange broken by 7 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump. 8 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Trump and. 9 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: Other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a 10 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: summit in Egypt. So could all of this bring lasting 11 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: peace to the region? Today on the front page, University 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with us 13 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the 14 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: historic dawn of a new Middle East. So, Robert, incredible 15 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 2: scenes seeing the last twenty living hostages reunite with family members. 16 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: Tell me how has all this come about? 17 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 3: Well, it's come about in quite short order. Because you 18 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 3: remember that when mister Trump first came to office for 19 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 3: the second time in January this year, he told Natanni 20 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 3: to finish the job. He said that on the campaign trail, 21 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 3: But to his credit, he did oversee a cease fire 22 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 3: in January of this year and put pressure on Neatni 23 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 3: to accept it. But mister Netni who exited from the 24 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: second phase of the ceasefire in March of this year 25 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 3: without consequence, and that upset of many people looking in 26 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 3: or looking from abut file. Mister nen who had a 27 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: choice by the second phase of the ceasefire that was 28 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 3: started in January, he could accept all the remaining hostages 29 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 3: and bringing it permanent into the war. He chose not 30 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 3: to have the hostages at that stage and continue the war. 31 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 3: But since then a lot has happened, and the real catalyst, 32 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 3: I think was Israel's attack on Kata in Doha in 33 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: I think it was around about early September round about 34 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: that period, and both Saudi Arabia and Katar and a 35 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 3: number of other Arab countries Egypt, which are all important 36 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: to the administration, I think basically read the right actor 37 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 3: Trump and said this has got to stop because Kata 38 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 3: had been involved in mediation efforts at the request of 39 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:42,399 Speaker 3: Israel and the United States, and they were absolutely outraged 40 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 3: by the fact that Israel without warning killed five Hamas 41 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:54,839 Speaker 3: officials in Doha and also a Qatari security official. And 42 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 3: I think mister Trump was suddenly presented with tough choices 43 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 3: he could continue to give mister Yahoo a blank check, 44 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 3: or he could listen to countries like Katar, where America 45 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 3: has its largest military base in the Middle East, and 46 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: he decided, I think, to try to bring about a 47 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 3: peace settlement in light of that incident. So I do 48 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 3: think the crucial catalyst for this was the Israeli attack 49 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 3: on a close ally of the United States cut Art, 50 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 3: and I think that I think they made it quite clear. 51 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia and Katar said to mister Trump, you can't 52 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 3: have your cake and eat it. You can't go on 53 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: supporting Netinaho while he attacks us. So you're going to 54 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 3: have to start exerting some leadership here. And the Americans 55 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 3: have always had leverage in this situation. 56 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:54,279 Speaker 2: Well, Trump has said that the long and painful nightmare 57 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: is finally over, is it. 58 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 3: No? No, this is a well come step forward. Let's 59 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 3: be quite clear, this situation didn't occur overnight. It's been 60 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 3: two years in the making. Following the dreadful Hamas a 61 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: terrorist attack on Israel, we then had mister Nilhu's campaign 62 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 3: of mighty vengeance. Something like more than sixty seven thousand 63 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: Palestinians have died, an intensive bombardment of gals that eighty 64 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:27,119 Speaker 3: percent of the Palestinians killed have been civilians, including around 65 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 3: twenty thousand children. So there's been enormous and unimaginable suffering. 66 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 3: So to declare it over maybe premature. What we can 67 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 3: see is that all sides have signed up to the 68 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: first phase of the agreement, and the first phase involves 69 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: all living Israeli hostages being released. That's happened. In return, 70 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: Israel has released about two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including four 71 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 3: hundred children. A key part of the first phase is 72 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 3: the unrestricted distribution of humanitarian aid. In Gaza, five hundred 73 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: thousand Palestinians, according to the UN, are currently facing starvation. 74 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: So the ceasefire could not come quick enough and it's welcome. Also, 75 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 3: it's welcome the hostages have been released, and it's welcome 76 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 3: that long last, we hope unrestricted distribution of food aid 77 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 3: will occur. 78 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: How can we ensure that that actually happens. 79 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: Well, I think, first of all, mister Trump has put 80 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: his name to it happening, so he's now got a 81 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 3: stake having extended the brand, the Trump brand, if you 82 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 3: want to put it that way, to peace, and I 83 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 3: think many Arab countries which want a two state solution, 84 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 3: as does much of the community, including the international community, 85 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 3: including our country, believe that mister Trump is the person 86 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 3: to exercise leverage with mister Nian Yahoo. But it's going 87 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,239 Speaker 3: to be The reason I expressed caution at the outset 88 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 3: Chelsea in response to your question, is that the easy 89 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 3: part has been done, returning hostages, bringing a cease fire, 90 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 3: telling the military to stop bombarding Gaza, and hopefully allowing 91 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 3: trucks which have been waiting in the border laden with 92 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 3: food to go in. The more difficult part is now 93 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 3: the future of Gaza. Under the agreement, Israel has to 94 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 3: carry out a phased withdrawal in return for Hamas disarming. 95 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 3: But here comes a particular problem. Hamas may be reluctant 96 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 3: to disarm because it's given up its only form of 97 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: leaver ridge, which is the hostages. Also, mister netn Yahoo 98 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 3: has given no indication he will accept a Palestinian state. 99 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 3: That's a problem because, and it's a huge omission. In 100 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 3: the twenty point plan, there is no commit no explicit 101 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 3: commitment to the Palestinian right of political self determination. Are 102 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 3: right by the way for all peoples under the UN 103 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: Charter and this, you can see a potential stumbling block 104 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: occurring here. Now, I think countries like kata Egypt and 105 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia have no illusions about the difficulty ahead, but 106 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 3: I think they believe it's it's a calculated risk worth 107 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 3: taking because if mister Trump on board, if mister netna 108 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 3: Who starts digging in and refusing to withdraw his forces, 109 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 3: then I think they calculate mister Trump will feel sufficiently 110 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 3: invested to start leaning on Netta Yahu. 111 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: But it is Trump. 112 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: The only reason why netnya who will do that? 113 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: Is that what we're counting on here. 114 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean, you know, let's be quite clear, 115 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 3: it's welcome that mister Trump has taken this step. Both 116 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 3: the bidenmenstration and the Trump administration bear enormous responsibility for 117 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 3: the fact that ninety two percent of all residential buildings 118 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: have been destroyed in Gaza and about ninety percent of 119 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: Palestines have been displaced. Without American power backing Israel, none 120 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 3: of this could happen. Four fifths of the munitions used 121 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 3: in Gaza have been provided by the United States, So 122 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 3: it's slightly ironic when mister Trump presents America as being 123 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 3: you know the peacemaker this situation, both Israel and America bear, 124 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 3: as well as Hamas, considerable responsibility for the carnage that's occurred. 125 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 3: It's welcome, though, that mister Trump has decided that trajectory 126 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 3: can't continue. And I think another big sticking point in 127 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 3: the second phase of this agreement, as well as whether 128 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 3: mister Nick who can be persuaded to accept a Palestinian 129 00:08:56,440 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 3: state without Hamas's involvement, Another sticking point will be the 130 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 3: huge task of rebuilding Gaza. Now. Mister Trump said in 131 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 3: his speech in Shake in Egypt Charma l Shake, he 132 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 3: said that a number of wealthy Arab countries will be 133 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 3: happy to support the rebuilding of Gaza. Well, I'm not 134 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 3: sure Israel. How does Israel feel about that? Because they're responsible, 135 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 3: the IDEF is responsible for leveling Gaza, will they be 136 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 3: comfortable about many of their neighbors rebuilding Gaza? That raises 137 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 3: the question, shouldn't Israel? Shouldn't there be some accountability for 138 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 3: what Israel has done? And just imagine how angry many 139 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 3: Palestinians are once they get over this terrible ideal of 140 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 3: not having enough food and dodging in the bullets and bombs. 141 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 3: Once their life becomes the new normal, then most of 142 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 3: them haven't got a home to return too. So you've 143 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 3: got a lot of potential sources of tension ahead. But yeah, 144 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 3: I mean it's it's I think a lot will depend 145 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 3: whether this piece can be sustained on whether mister Trump's 146 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 3: attention can be sustained on the problem. I think one 147 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 3: or two actors have signed up to this on the 148 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 3: assumption either that the President's attention can be sustained because 149 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 3: he's put his name to it, or that it can't 150 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 3: be sustained. And I think this is the assumption mister 151 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 3: Nettignan who is adhering too, and he can quietly ignore 152 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 3: the president. 153 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 4: With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of 154 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 4: millions have finally been answered, as you know, the hostages 155 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 4: have been returned, and further work goes on having to 156 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 4: do with the sadly to save buddies. Together, we've achieved 157 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 4: what everybody said was impossible. At long last, we have 158 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 4: peace in the Middle East. And it's a very simple 159 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 4: expression piece in the Middle East, and we've heard it 160 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 4: for many years, but nobody thought it could ever get there, 161 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 4: And now we're there. 162 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 2: Wow, Trump's got the full attention because he's after a 163 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 2: Nobel Peace Prize next time round, isn't he? 164 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: So there is. 165 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 3: Something round for he was going for one this time. 166 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's the nominations closed, right, Yeah. 167 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 3: But this is ironic, isn't it? Because mister Trump has 168 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 3: been restricting the rights of people within the United States, 169 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 3: particularly on university campuses, who have been demanding US ease 170 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 3: firing Gaza, and suddenly he's embraced the idea and he 171 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 3: wants a Nobel Peace Prize for belatedly accepting an idea 172 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 3: that much of the international community. It shouldn't be forgotten, 173 00:11:54,880 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 3: Chelsea that on the twenty seventh October twenty twenty three, 174 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 3: the majority of countries more than one hundred and forty 175 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 3: what did the immediate cease fire? It was the United 176 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 3: States under the Biden administration, which five times exercised the 177 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 3: veto to prevent the cease fire, and then the Trump 178 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 3: administration exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire. So 179 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 3: you know, we've got to put this in some ports persective. 180 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 3: Just because mister Trump was the ne Elberg Beace Prize. 181 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 3: It's not just based on performative acts. It's also based 182 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 3: on sustained commitment and demonstrated dedication. I'm not sure that's 183 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 3: self evidently the case. 184 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 2: I saw Trump posing with other world leaders in Egypt 185 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 2: behind that big piece twenty twenty five sign one person 186 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 2: not in attendance though, Benjamin Netanya, who should we read 187 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 2: into that? 188 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 4: Well? 189 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 3: I think some of the leaders made it quite clear, 190 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 3: you know, mister nettnia who's under an arrest warrant from 191 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 3: the International Criminal Court. In addition, a number of countries, 192 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 3: Turkey in particular, indicated they would not attend if Nettignao, 193 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 3: who does actually turn up, I think the Americans probably 194 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 3: prevailed or Nettnao who not to turn up, given the 195 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 3: reaction that mister Trump was getting from countries that he 196 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 3: wants to have constructive relations with, such as Turkey, which 197 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 3: you know, mister Trump went out of his way to 198 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 3: praise Turkey, mister Odowan at the summit in Egypt. The 199 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 3: crucial thing here is, however, we're not going to get 200 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 3: a stable or reliable peace in the Middle East until 201 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 3: Israel's desire for security is matched by a recognition by 202 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 3: an Israeli leader. The Palestinians need a peaceful path towards 203 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 3: political self determination. The Hamas issue is a side show. Basically, 204 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 3: one of the reasons Hamas Scott leverage is because Israel, 205 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 3: according to the International Court of Justice, illegally occupies three 206 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 3: Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem or the West Bank and Gaza. 207 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 3: So until that picture changes, until Israel recognizes that their 208 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 3: long term security cannot be achieved by military means, a 209 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 3: position our Foreign minister has always maintained to be the case, 210 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 3: and I agree with him that there's no military solution. 211 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 3: You can't bomb your wage of security. Until the post 212 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 3: unies are given the option of ignoring Hamas and forming 213 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 3: their own state, then this situation is likely to flare 214 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 3: up again. In other words, if mister Netnia, who thinks 215 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 3: he can simply have fabulous relations with always Arab neighbors 216 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 3: backed by the United States, and basically take over the 217 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 3: West Bank and virtually control Gaza, then I think this 218 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: thing will quickly fall apart. 219 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 2: What is the key ingredient that needs to happen for 220 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 2: it not to fall apart like we've seen it fall 221 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 2: apart before. 222 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 3: Well, As I said, at the risk of repetition, I 223 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 3: think there needs to be a recognition in televisi in 224 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 3: Israel that the Palestinians. They came close to it in 225 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 3: the Oslo process in the early nineties of recognizing you 226 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: cannot simply exclude another people from achieving statehood, and the 227 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 3: State of Israel was created in nineteen forty eight. That 228 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 3: resulted in the displacement of a lot of Palestinians. No 229 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 3: one suggesting in their right mind that we can go 230 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 3: back to that and all the Israelis leave. I think 231 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 3: what we could hope for, however, is two states living 232 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 3: side by side, and a Palestinian state being based on 233 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 3: the territories of the West Bank, which are currently occupied 234 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 3: Gaza and East Jerusalem. And that's how the Palestinians see it. 235 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 3: So they're prepared to recognize and accept Israel, but they 236 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 3: do want those territories to be liberated, as they see it. 237 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 2: And does all this hinge on the fact that every 238 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 2: member of Hamas put down their weapons and say enough 239 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 2: is enough. 240 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know this, be quite clear about this. 241 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 3: Hamas is a terrorist organization, but it's also a resistance group. 242 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 3: That is to say, Hamas only came into being because, 243 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 3: first of all, the Israelis did not take the Palestinian 244 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 3: authority seriously and sidelined it in the West Bank. And 245 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 3: Hamas presents itself as a militant resistance group to Israeli occupation, 246 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 3: so it's a child or an offshoot of occupation. If 247 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 3: you want to defang or undermine Hamas, you need to 248 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 3: give Palestinians a peaceful path to self determination. It was 249 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: John F. Kennedy who said shortly before he was killed, 250 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 3: if the path to peaceful self determination for people is blocked, 251 00:16:55,400 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 3: then extremism and terrorism is surely follow and unfortunately least 252 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 3: is very very much confirmed. I think the wisdom of 253 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 3: those words. It's not going to be an easy path. 254 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 3: But there are a number of people in Israel I 255 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 3: would say that, a distinct minority who believe that there 256 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 3: has to be a mutual understanding between the Palestins and 257 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 3: the Israelis along the lines we've discussed. 258 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 2: So what are the next steps of this ceasefire plan. 259 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 3: Well, the next steps we understand is for there to 260 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 3: be the appointment of non political, technocratic Palestinians to run Gaza, 261 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 3: at least the part of it where Israel doesn't control, 262 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 3: and that governance body will be overseen by what mister 263 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 3: Trump called a Board of Peace headed by himself and 264 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 3: including people like Tony Blair, who's got enormous baggage in 265 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 3: the Middle East area. 266 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: I mean, mister Blair get along with them the first 267 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: time round? 268 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 2: Did he well? 269 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 3: No, mister Blair has been widely criticized because for many 270 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 3: Arabs states, mister Blair's reputation has been tainted by his 271 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 3: involvement in the invasion of it Raq giving him green 272 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 3: light to America going ahead. But also he's had other 273 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 3: involvements with in the quartet as it was Corn and 274 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 3: it's quite a controversial move. I mean. The crucial thing, 275 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 3: I think from the point of view of Arab states 276 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 3: will be some recognition the Palestinians have a part to 277 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 3: play in determining their own destiny, because at the moment, 278 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 3: what is conspicuous is absent from the Board of Peace 279 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 3: or Palestinian representatives. 280 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 5: Now, these are first steps, and anybody that's ever had 281 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 5: any regard to the history of this area will know 282 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 5: to be cautious. However, you've got our biggest cross People 283 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 5: in different countries are putting a lot of work into this, 284 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 5: and it is possible, just hopefully that peace will be 285 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 5: breaking out and it'll be permanent. 286 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,680 Speaker 2: How do we know that this isn't going to fall over? 287 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 3: We don't. But unless you know, life is in politics 288 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 3: is often a choice between the disagreeable or the intolerable, 289 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 3: and the situation we have just witnessed the last two 290 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 3: years for most of us was intolerable. So what's happening 291 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 3: now maybe not be perfectly agreeable, but at least it 292 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 3: represents a possibility of movement. So what I found slightly 293 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 3: encouraging is that many of the Arabs countries, like Egypt, 294 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 3: which borders Gaza Saudi Arabia Both Saudi Arabian Egypt are 295 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:04,400 Speaker 3: close alli of the United States, as is Katar. They 296 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 3: seem determined now, and it's belated. I wonder where they 297 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 3: were for the first two years of this crisis, because 298 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 3: they remained distinctly limp and weak and not demanding justice 299 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 3: for the Palestinians. But they now have seem to it 300 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 3: after the attack by Israel and Katar reached a new 301 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 3: resolution that there must be a two states solution and 302 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,639 Speaker 3: if there isn't, their own security is possibly threatened. So 303 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 3: and now this presents mister Trump with I think more constraints. 304 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 3: American decision makers have traditionally been pro Israeli, and they've 305 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 3: usually been very supportive of israel I. Think what may 306 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 3: be happening from here on in We don't know, but 307 00:20:55,600 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 3: at least the expectation is amongst leaders from Turkey, is Indonesia, Egypt, 308 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, is that mister Trump's going to be more 309 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 3: even handed from now on and begin to take into 310 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 3: account the aspirations of the Palestinians as well as the Israelis. 311 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 3: We don't know whether that hope will be realized or 312 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 3: whether it will not be realized, but it's certainly bringing 313 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 3: a cease fire to a situation of unimaginable suffering. I mean, 314 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 3: quite frankly, it's been an international disgrace Chelsea. And it's 315 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 3: not just the Israelis and the Americans bearing responsibility for it, 316 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 3: as well as Amas. You have to think more deeply 317 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 3: and say, where was the UN Security Council. You know, 318 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 3: this organization has the responsibility to uphold global peace and security. 319 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 3: It was found wanting when the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's 320 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 3: been found wanting in the situation we've just wanted the 321 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 3: last year. It was failed to present itself as a 322 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 3: barrier to war and peace. Why because five members of 323 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,400 Speaker 3: the Security Council can exercise the veto to perpetuate conflicts 324 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 3: about gaza. So one thing I'd like to see is 325 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 3: steps taken to ensure there can be no more gazas. 326 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 3: What does that mean. It means reform with U N 327 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 3: Security Council. We have to constrain the veto powers of 328 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 3: five countries. In the twenty first century, We're in a 329 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 3: ridiculous situation where five countries determine matters of war and 330 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 3: peace for the whole planet. So while they've got that 331 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 3: nice little perk of a veto, the rest of the 332 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,640 Speaker 3: world is paying the price for that perk, and I'm 333 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 3: not sure the rest of the world wants to put 334 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 3: up with it for too long. 335 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,439 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert. 336 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 3: Thank you. 337 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 338 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 339 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 2: at enziherld dot co dot nz. 340 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: The Front Page is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin, 341 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. 342 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 2: Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 343 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 2: get your podcasts and tune in tomorrow for another look 344 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.