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Speaker 1: News Talks w B. It's the lay time your day breakfast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Andrew Dickens at six point fifteen. Let's talk money.

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Speaker 1: Westpactief economist is Kelly Echo. Good morning to her.

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Speaker 2: Kelly, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: So we've got the European Central Bank and the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England's meeting over night to discuss the interest rates. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they did, and.

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Speaker 2: They delivered as expected. The EECB, for example, left their

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Speaker 2: rates unchanged. So governor there, Christine Leguard, actually sounded pretty

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Speaker 2: chilled and happy about the outlook. Interest rates there at

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Speaker 2: two percent, looking like they're probably going to stay there

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Speaker 2: for a while unless the euro really does race up.

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Speaker 2: They're commenting that easier German fiscal policy were basically the

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Speaker 2: money they spended to try to keep the Russians out

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Speaker 2: of the door is really helping to support growth here

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Speaker 2: and probably Actually one of the interesting things I noticed

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Speaker 2: is they're extending what they call this repo line framework

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Speaker 2: where they basically commit to the other central bank's money

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Speaker 2: and euros in times of trouble, and then this could

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Speaker 2: be quite interesting, could be quite interesting for the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank actually, because you know, we're in a world now

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Speaker 2: where the Federal Reserve is perhaps less likely to be

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Speaker 2: au dishing out money in a crisis because they're more

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Speaker 2: interested in themselves. So you know, perhaps there's going to

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Speaker 2: be a role there for the European Central Bank to

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Speaker 2: pick up the slack there if there's trouble. I will

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Speaker 2: also say the Bank of England. They'd also didn't change rates.

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Speaker 2: They're a bit more dubbish than expected, and it's looking

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Speaker 2: like there's going to be a rate cut there in

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Speaker 2: the next couple of whiles. It was a nice edge

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Speaker 2: voat in that Bank of England governor. He basically sounded

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Speaker 2: like he could easily be talked into a rap cut.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I understand England the very close decision five to

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Speaker 1: four to hold, so that's pretty close. They're at three

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Speaker 1: point seventy five percent, which is high when you compared

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Speaker 1: to Europe, which is it too, But you're right, the

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Speaker 1: bank is saying there could be rate cuts for England

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six and that would be very gratefully received.

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Speaker 2: Indeed. Yeah, I mean, we have had a bit of

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Speaker 2: a trouble because inflation has just been a bit sticky.

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Speaker 2: The economy hasn't been too good, so that's a bit

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Speaker 2: of a side of optimism.

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Speaker 1: And in PC I mean, while, by the way, can

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Speaker 1: I just say about the European Central Bank, Their rates

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Speaker 1: have now held steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. So

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Speaker 1: Europe is very stable right now and easy at two percent.

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Speaker 1: Now to America, we've got jobs. What's happening with the

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Speaker 1: jobs and the indicators there?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think the jobs thing has really watched driven

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Speaker 2: markets over night. We've got lower long term magistrates and

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Speaker 2: weaker equities, and it's been a few indicators suggesting that

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Speaker 2: jobs are a bit harder to come by here. Jobless

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Speaker 2: claims went up unexpectedly to two hundred and thirty one

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Speaker 2: thousand for the last week. There were fewer new jobs

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Speaker 2: coming out of the Jolt survey and these layoffs from

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Speaker 2: large brooms, the Challenger Layoffs survey survey had a big

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Speaker 2: spike to the weakest that it's seen since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and nine. So that's just made people think, oh, actually,

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Speaker 2: maybe the uish jobs market going to week it after all.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's get back home because this is a big one.

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Speaker 1: We had a global dairy trade auction and it was

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Speaker 1: pretty good, and it's been not so good lately and

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Speaker 1: now people have started to talk about ten dollars at

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Speaker 1: the farm gate again. So what is happening with dairy

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Speaker 1: right now?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a bloody good question. Before Christmas, we were

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Speaker 2: all thinking there were tons of supply and there wasn't

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Speaker 2: going to be enough by it. So these prices were

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Speaker 2: falling and everybody was furiously cutting their payout fore cast.

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Speaker 2: We cut outs to nine forty from ten bucks. A

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Speaker 2: few of the others on the street got a bit

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Speaker 2: more excited, and I think at least one being hitded

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Speaker 2: under nine bucks. But what we've seen this year is

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Speaker 2: a really big rise in dairy prices basically up over

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Speaker 2: twenty percent now since the start of the year. Big

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Speaker 2: auction last week, big rises in the futures after the

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Speaker 2: auction this week as well. There was a ten percent

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Speaker 2: rising skim mill prices in the last auction, five percent

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Speaker 2: on everything else. Actually just looks like there's some pretty

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Speaker 2: resident in demand, so there's buyers out there for this milk.

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Speaker 2: So I'm thinking that we'll all probably have to put

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Speaker 2: our payout fore casts upper. This is going to continue,

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Speaker 2: because we'll get closer to ten bucks again.

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Speaker 1: I was going to say, are you going to go

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Speaker 1: ten bucks and above, Well.

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Speaker 2: The exchange rate's a bit higher, so you sort of

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Speaker 2: have to kind of like offset that off of birds.

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Speaker 2: But I actually think the really interesting question is not

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Speaker 2: so much this season, but if this is going to

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Speaker 2: continue on past the middle of the year, then it'll

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Speaker 2: be the season after that where the forecast is down

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Speaker 2: at nine bucks, but perhaps it's going to be closer

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Speaker 2: to the team.

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Speaker 1: You talk about our exchange rate, and I've got a

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Speaker 1: little bit of time, so I'd just like to talk

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Speaker 1: to you briefly about that. The greenback is falling and

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Speaker 1: it's not been used as the currency, and therefore people

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Speaker 1: are doing trades. I know that Canada and China they're

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Speaker 1: doing trades based on their currency rather than you think

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Speaker 1: the US dollar. Is our dollar going up because we're

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Speaker 1: getting better, or is our dollar going up because the

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Speaker 1: the US dollars going down?

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Speaker 2: You know, there's a bit of both there. The US

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Speaker 2: dollar has generally been weaker in the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 2: particularly as things like that US equity market has looked

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Speaker 2: a little bit wobblier. There's also been some kind of

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Speaker 2: weakness and whole lot of risk currencies like you beckcoin

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Speaker 2: is under seventy thousand now. But underneath this, you know,

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Speaker 2: you have to remember that all the economic data in

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Speaker 2: New Zealand has looked quite a bit better in the

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Speaker 2: last few weeks and the market has got too ate.

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Speaker 2: Best part of two rate hikes priced him for twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six. So that is a bit of a turnaround

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Speaker 2: and sentiment which has really helped a KIV as well.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, and I thank you so much as Kelly Echold,

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Speaker 1: who's from Westbak He is the chief economist there. The

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Speaker 1: phenomenon's known as the d dollarification. Very hard thing to

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Speaker 1: say at the start of the morning. As the trade

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Speaker 1: wars and the tariff wars continue and America continues to

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Speaker 1: be more isolationists, people are starting to move away from

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Speaker 1: the dollar, the US dollar being the global currency that

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Speaker 1: trades are done on, and that's making for some very

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Speaker 1: interesting ramifications. We'll keep an eye on that for you.

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Speaker 1: It is our six twenty one. In a few moments time.

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Speaker 1: We're right around the country with all the news that

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Speaker 1: is making news with Lockholm Reni, including of course Mount

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Speaker 1: Monganui where we have developments around the campground there. This

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Speaker 1: is the White Tonguey Day Breakfast, it's News Talks here B,

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Speaker 1: It's six twenty one. For more from the mic Asking Breakfast,

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Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks there B from six am weekdays,

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Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio