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Speaker 1: Now the brain, the great brain drain that we keep

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Speaker 1: harping on about migrant departures have reached a new record.

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Speaker 1: Just hive one hundred and twenty three thousand. This is

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Speaker 1: for the year to January new numbers out. That's up

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Speaker 1: eighteen percent. But there is some sense that we might

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Speaker 1: have hit peak brain drain, which is good. Liam dan

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Speaker 1: is the Herald's business editor at larges with me now

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Speaker 1: highlym Koday Ryan. So what are we seeing in these numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of numbers there, and you can

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Speaker 2: sort of pick and cheers a bit because the annual

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Speaker 2: stats are going to keep looking pretty rough for a

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Speaker 2: while because they're catching those that the peak of the

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Speaker 2: brain drain last year. But what we can see is

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Speaker 2: that if you look at I guess what we're talking

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Speaker 2: about here is Kiwi citizens leaving long term, right, and

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Speaker 2: so the Kiwi departures have sort of plateau. They're in

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Speaker 2: the year to January twenty twenty five, they were forty

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Speaker 2: four seven hundred, and that compares to sorry sorry, forty

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Speaker 2: four thousand, two hundred compared to forty four thousand, seven

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Speaker 2: hundred for the year to January twenty twenty four and

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Speaker 2: then sort of what you can see is that in

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Speaker 2: the year to August twenty twenty four was when they peaked,

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Speaker 2: we had forty seven thousand, So nearly fifty thousand people

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Speaker 2: left in that year to August, and so they're drifting back.

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Speaker 2: Forty four thousand kiwis leaving is still a heck of

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Speaker 2: a lot, you know. So there's no sense that we're

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Speaker 2: saying that the brain drain is over or cured. But

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Speaker 2: the peak is an important thing to get beyond because

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Speaker 2: it possibly suggests that the trend has started moving in

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Speaker 2: the right direction and that there's you know, perhaps less

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Speaker 2: push for Kiwis to get out there, and so you know,

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Speaker 2: hopefully that's part of the recovery story, right.

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Speaker 1: Well hopefully. I was going to ask, does that mean

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Speaker 1: that it's a sign that kiwis are saying where our

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Speaker 1: prospects are looking better here? Or is it just that

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Speaker 1: we've run out of mobile brains to actually you know,

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Speaker 1: up and leave.

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Speaker 2: Look, it's possible. Look, we don't the stats don't dig

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Speaker 2: down into who exactly is leaving. We get a little

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Speaker 2: bit of age based stuff, but that takes a while

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Speaker 2: to come through. Yeah, it's and overall net migration is

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Speaker 2: still still positive. So we're still gaining thirty two thousand,

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Speaker 2: five hundred people I think in the year to January,

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Speaker 2: but that's down from one hundred and something like one

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty two one hundred and fifty five thousand

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Speaker 2: or something. You know, we had this enormous peak, and

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Speaker 2: so just having that net migration gain of thirty two

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Speaker 2: thousand is enough to sort of create a bit of

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Speaker 2: a head when the economy is used to having a

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Speaker 2: lot more people coming in. And I'm hearing economists talk

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Speaker 2: about how that's one of the reasons that the housing

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Speaker 2: market's just not picking up as fast as you might

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Speaker 2: have expected with interest rates coming off, that we're sort

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Speaker 2: of built in the last year or two for this

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Speaker 2: high level of incoming migration or lower levels of people leaving,

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Speaker 2: and you know, we're sort of feeling that now. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: as I say, the trend possibly starting to turn, and

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Speaker 2: let's hope, you know, if they can, if we can

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Speaker 2: see the economy continue to improve, it usually is fairly

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Speaker 2: related to the economy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and because I noticed that IMF report yesterday, they

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Speaker 1: said that it would be you know, our recovery this

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Speaker 1: year would be in part lad by migration. I mean,

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Speaker 1: are they taking into account the fact that, you know,

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Speaker 1: net migration is relatively low compared to where we normally

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Speaker 1: have it. Presumably they are.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think they're talking. I mean, in

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Speaker 2: the end, it's going to you know, you change a

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Speaker 2: few settings at some point that the lower level of

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Speaker 2: net migration will start to cause labor shortages and then

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Speaker 2: inevitably a government tries to open things up again. We're

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Speaker 2: really all sitting there waiting for the labor market to

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Speaker 2: work through the worst of its you know, unemployment and

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Speaker 2: get some jobs creating again. So that's not looking like

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Speaker 2: it's happening till the second half of the year. But

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Speaker 2: when that starts to happen, you'd expect to see migration

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Speaker 2: pick up as well, a fewer people leaving because of

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Speaker 2: his jobs. So so much of it's tied to jobs,

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Speaker 2: and as we've talked about before, it's just taking it

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Speaker 2: takes a bit longer. Once the first sort of economic

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Speaker 2: stats start looking a bit better, it still takes a

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Speaker 2: while for the labor market to turn around.

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Speaker 1: Yep, nice one, Liam, thank you for that great information.

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Speaker 1: Liam dan As always insied Herold business editsor at Large.

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