1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: Coming up Jamie McKay on the dairy fallout from Donald 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs, and we're head to Australia for the first 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: leader's debate. Albow and Dunton go face to face on 4 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: Sky News tonight. Plus we're with Indebrady in the UK 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: by seven o'clock. Right now, China's Commerce ministry is saying 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: it'll fight till the end over the Trump's tariffs. The 7 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: Chinese government spokesperson so, Trump obviously hit them with thirty 8 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: four percent, They replied with thirty four percent, and then 9 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: Trump had they replied thirty four percent. Trump now threatens 10 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: fifty percent on top of that if they continue with 11 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: their retaliation. Chinese government spokesperson has said the US threat 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,279 Speaker 1: to escalate tariffs against China is a mistake on top 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: of a mistake. China will never accept this. Brad Olson 14 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: is in for the Metric's principal economists with US now, Hi, Brad, 15 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: good evening. Not great language, is it. 16 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 2: It's pretty strong fighting talk from both sides. I mean, 17 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: you're right that thirty four percent to start with, but 18 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: let's be clear, there was already I think twenty percent 19 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 2: additional tariffs on China earlier in twenty twenty five. If 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: you take on top of that the tariffs that were 21 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: levied both by the original Trump administration back you know, 22 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: five six years ago, and also some of those under 23 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: Biden that haven't been walked back. You're talking in effective 24 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: tariff rate. If this COEs ahead, if there is this 25 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: escalation of over one hundred percent, you know, that means 26 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: that every Chinese product going into the US would be 27 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: costing more than double what it needs to. I mean, 28 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: this really is starting to look like a full blown trade. 29 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: War, which we haven't seen before, right because we have 30 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: seen trade wars before, but we haven't seen any with 31 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: numbers this big, not. 32 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 2: This big, and not this wide scale. I mean, this 33 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 2: is not sort of a few little products tit for 34 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: tat and similar. This is like everything at the wholesale 35 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: level you're hearing from the Chinese. They're looking at targeting 36 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: agricultural exports from the US. That's a big earner for 37 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: the United States. So this is much much wider. And 38 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 2: of course it's not just a one to one. It's 39 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 2: not just the China and the US. It's also the 40 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: EU are looking to retaliate. Canada has already done so 41 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: you've got to talk from the Mexicans as well about 42 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: wanting to go in like the wider broader effect of 43 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 2: this is worrying. You heard from the Finance Minister today 44 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 2: saying that Treasury's expectations are that global growth expectations have 45 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: now been slashed by half a percentage point from where 46 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 2: they originally thought things were. That makes it so much harder. 47 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 2: If you're a key exporter and you're seeing all of 48 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 2: these countries around the world fighting, putting tariffs on back 49 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 2: and forth. There is just going to be less trade, 50 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 2: less money to buy the stuff that we're sending out. 51 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 2: That's scary. 52 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: When the Finance Minister says half a percent of global growth, 53 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: what does that mean for our growth number? 54 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: It's not clear yet. We haven't heard the Treasury estimates. 55 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 2: I mean, and to be fair, you know, even the 56 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 2: private sector forecast is like us, we're still trying to 57 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 2: run the numbers and I don't think anyone's got a 58 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 2: lot of certainty or confidence now. I mean, you see 59 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 2: that also in the financial markets because everyone's still seeing 60 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: those cutbacks. But realistically, you know that slowdown that's coming through. 61 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 2: You could be talking a percentage point of GDP. That's 62 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: sort of just a very high level number, but in 63 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 2: terms of scarlet magnitude, it's big enough to care about, 64 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: and I think that's why there's so much interest in 65 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: this right you know, people are talking about the can 66 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: we save the balances right here right now because the 67 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: markets are down, But longer term, over the next six 68 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 2: months to a year, we are going to be talking 69 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: a lot more about, Hey, where are New Zealand's exports going? 70 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 2: Are we able to see quite as much out what's 71 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 2: coming through because we're all just sort of caught in 72 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: the middle of this mail strong because we don't know 73 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 2: what's next. 74 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: Somebody described it to me as like if you have 75 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: a motive like spaghetti junction, a motivate with lots of 76 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: roads on it, and you're basically having trying to figure 77 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: out a new route and then work out what the 78 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: speed will be. You know, it's a really hard thing 79 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,799 Speaker 1: to domine. Of course, we have GPS these days, that's 80 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: quite easy now, but you know, before we had that, 81 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 1: that's similar kind of thing. You're trying to get down 82 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: and squared. 83 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: Definitely, and at the same time, right it's all the 84 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: rest of us who are watching, you know, we've seen 85 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: a crash happen, and now we're trying to figure out 86 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: who goes first to make sure that they can find 87 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: the new route. We all don't want to sort of 88 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: immediately pilon ourselves because they'll just come up the new 89 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: escape route. But we are all watching. Now what's everyone 90 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 2: else doing? What way are they starting to hear? They 91 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 2: taking road A, road B or road C. And I 92 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 2: think that's why it's interesting, Right, you've seen a number 93 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: of countries that have retaliated quite hard. You know, that's 94 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 2: escalating the trade war. You've seen a bunch of other countries, 95 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 2: particularly through parts of Asia, the likes of Japan Vietnam 96 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 2: have said, hey, can we negotiate. We're quite keen to 97 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: sort of see if we can lower this down. Then 98 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 2: you've got that sort of middle group like New Zealand, 99 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: we've gone, look, it's not in our best interest to 100 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: try and sort of put ourselves on the radar at 101 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 2: the moment, we're not being targeted. Let's just sort of 102 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: sit back, not watch peacefully, but just watch and wait 103 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 2: and learn. Because there's still a lot of water to 104 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 2: go into this bridge. We have five days into this 105 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 2: and already it's been chaos. 106 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: We've got an OCR announcement tomorrow. If you're the Reserve Bank, 107 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: what do you do? Do you kind of because on 108 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: the one hand, you potentially got you know, inflation increasing, 109 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 1: on the other hand, you might have growth falling. It's 110 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: like you don't know which way is up and which 111 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: ways down? What do you do? Just just go with 112 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: what you indicated you might deliver broadly. 113 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 2: I think at the moment, I think that's the best call. 114 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 2: I think anything otherwise would imply the Reserve Bank almost 115 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 2: knows too much, and it doesn't at this point. It's 116 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 2: only had the same amount of time that everyone else has. 117 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: If the Treasury hasn't been able to come out with 118 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 2: a fulsome this is what it means for the economy, 119 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 2: nor don't think the Reserve Bank will have either. Also, importantly, 120 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 2: that statement tomorrow that the Reserve Bank's issuing, there's only 121 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 2: a couple of pages of text. There's no big forecast. 122 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: They've only had a little bit of time. I think 123 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: asking them to come out with too firm of a 124 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 2: view at the moment risks sort of leading us down 125 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 2: one particular path because we're not sure how to toss 126 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: up between the likes of that lower growth and the 127 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 2: potential higher inflation. I think more appropriate would be the 128 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 2: reserve banks signaling tomorrow and say, look, yep, clearly a risk. 129 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 2: We're doing a lot of work on it. We're trying 130 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: to figure out where this lands. For the moment. The 131 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 2: New Zealand economy still in an all right place in 132 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 2: terms of where their forecasts are going, but requires that 133 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 2: official cash rate to come down a bit more. But 134 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 2: then they've got May when they can come out put 135 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 2: some full on forecasts out say this is what our 136 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 2: expectation is. And of course, look if things did deteriorate, 137 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 2: they can always have an impromptu meeting. They don't need 138 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 2: to in my view, but they've always got that option 139 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 2: up their sleeve. They've now got a governor in place 140 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 2: for the next six months in Christian hawksby very qualified individual. 141 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 2: I think we're in safe hands for the moment amidst 142 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 2: all of the term that's happening globally. 143 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, because she just announced today, Nikola Willis did 144 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: that he'll get that six month job. He had the 145 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: immediate job after Adrian all left the building and a 146 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: sort of cloud of dust, and then he's got the 147 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: six month job and then they'll find the new But 148 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: crucially he is going to oversee the funding envelope for 149 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: the next five years for the Reserve Bank. So it's 150 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 1: quite a good deal for Nikola Willis, isn't it. She 151 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: gets the temporary one in the sign they signed the 152 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: funding agreement, which was obviously point of contention with Adrian 153 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: or and then the new one comes in and has 154 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: to live by presumably. 155 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: Basically, but I think as well that's realistic. The government's 156 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 2: been pretty clear that everyone needs to live within their 157 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 2: means a bit more. The Reserve Bank has been spending 158 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 2: a lot of money, some of that completely justified, some 159 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 2: of it. I do think you've got a question should 160 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: they be able to spend quite as much as they 161 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: have been when everyone else has got to trim their 162 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 2: cloth a little bit more. I think it's appropriate they 163 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,559 Speaker 2: find a bit more of a middle ground, and I'm 164 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: more than confident that between the likes of the Reserve 165 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 2: Bank Board, the Finance Minister, the governor, everything will work 166 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: out all right. But I do think there's got to be, 167 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 2: like we're seeing in a number of parts of the economy, 168 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 2: a recalibration what we were doing a couple of years 169 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 2: ago does not cut it these days. The world has 170 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: changed the economy has changed, and we've got to adapt 171 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 2: to it. 172 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: Brad Awlsome, great to have you on the show. For 173 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news 174 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the 175 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio.