WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #258 - October 2nd 2024 - Ashley Rindsberg 0:00:09.133 --> 0:00:12.693 You're listening to a podcast from News Talks B. Follow 0:00:12.773 --> 0:00:16.213 this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.773 --> 0:00:19.813 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.853 --> 0:00:24.893 the information, all the debates of theists, now the Leighton 0:00:25.013 --> 0:00:27.733 Smith podcast Coward by news talks it B. 0:00:28.093 --> 0:00:31.533 Welcome to podcasts two hundred and fifty eight for October second, 0:00:31.733 --> 0:00:35.973 twenty twenty four. The Gray Lady Winked by Ashley Rinsburg 0:00:36.693 --> 0:00:39.173 is a critique of the New York Times. The Times 0:00:39.213 --> 0:00:42.933 did not farewell under his inspection, and quite rightly. We 0:00:42.973 --> 0:00:46.413 talked with Rinsburg in podcast one five to one April 0:00:46.413 --> 0:00:49.733 of twenty twenty two. He was in Israel at the 0:00:49.773 --> 0:00:54.693 time we talked the book as missiles fell nearby. Two 0:00:54.773 --> 0:00:58.573 days ago Monday, September thirty, we interviewed again on the 0:00:58.813 --> 0:01:01.533 current crisis in the Middle East, and I have no 0:01:01.613 --> 0:01:04.613 doubt that it's worthy of your attention. His feel for 0:01:04.693 --> 0:01:09.013 the moment is pronounced, and following the mail room, some 0:01:09.213 --> 0:01:13.653 referrals that you will or may find worthy of your attention, 0:01:14.373 --> 0:01:17.893 and an article from Jeffrey Tucker that I decided to include, 0:01:18.213 --> 0:01:21.933 and I'll explain why now. While we discussed the situation 0:01:22.093 --> 0:01:26.373 in Lebanon to some degree, it hadn't advanced as far 0:01:26.453 --> 0:01:30.053 as it now has and undoubtedly will. But there was 0:01:30.373 --> 0:01:33.893 a short discussion with Ashley Rinsburg with regard to the 0:01:34.013 --> 0:01:38.573 state that Lebanon was in before this event developed. We 0:01:38.613 --> 0:01:41.733 spoke two days ago on Monday. Today is Wednesday, of course, 0:01:41.973 --> 0:01:44.933 and I want to include something that was published only 0:01:44.973 --> 0:01:49.693 this morning that covers this off and is worthy, is 0:01:49.733 --> 0:01:53.853 worthy of a little attention inside Lebanon's currency crisis, how 0:01:54.053 --> 0:01:57.413 hyperinflation feels. And I'll pick out one or two little 0:01:57.413 --> 0:01:59.893 bits from it and tell you where to find it later. 0:02:00.773 --> 0:02:03.813 Lebanon a country on the brink before its economic collapse. 0:02:03.933 --> 0:02:07.613 Lebanon was a vibrant, cosmopolitan country, often called the Paris 0:02:07.613 --> 0:02:11.453 of the Middle East. Is economy thrived on banking, tourism 0:02:11.613 --> 0:02:15.773 and services, positioning it as a bridge between East and West. 0:02:16.053 --> 0:02:18.613 For Tony, who happens to be a friend of the author, 0:02:19.093 --> 0:02:24.453 this prosperity was not an illusion. It was his daily life. 0:02:24.493 --> 0:02:27.693 He said. My life in Lebanon was extraordinary. I ran 0:02:27.773 --> 0:02:31.813 three thriving businesses and lived a luxurious lifestyle, whether it 0:02:31.893 --> 0:02:34.573 was the latest cars, the best restaurants, or the hottest 0:02:34.573 --> 0:02:38.573 clubs be rout had at all. Yet beneath the surface, 0:02:38.813 --> 0:02:42.733 cracks were forming. Lebanon's banking sector, once a source of pride, 0:02:43.133 --> 0:02:47.293 was built on unsustainable practices and the country was drowning 0:02:47.293 --> 0:02:50.933 in debt. For years, Lebanon's Central Bank had pegged the 0:02:50.973 --> 0:02:54.733 Lebanese pound to the US dollar at an artificially high rate, 0:02:55.133 --> 0:02:59.133 creating a false sense of stability. This currency peg required 0:02:59.373 --> 0:03:03.813 constant inflows of dollars to maintain. When those inflows dried up, 0:03:03.813 --> 0:03:07.133 the house of cards collapsed. And if your interests lie 0:03:07.333 --> 0:03:09.893 in the direction of mens coin at all, you'll find 0:03:10.173 --> 0:03:14.613 some interesting, well opinion and information now in a moment. 0:03:14.893 --> 0:03:34.573 Ashley Rinsburg. Leverrix is an antihistamine made in Switzerland to 0:03:34.613 --> 0:03:38.853 the highest quality. Leverrix relieves hay fever in skin, allergies, 0:03:39.133 --> 0:03:43.213 or itchy skin. It's a dual action antihistamine and has 0:03:43.293 --> 0:03:48.893 a unique nasal decongestent action. It's fast acting for fast relief, 0:03:49.333 --> 0:03:52.093 and it works in under an hour and lasts for 0:03:52.173 --> 0:03:55.573 over twenty four hours. Leverrix is a tiny tablet that 0:03:55.693 --> 0:03:59.733 unblocks the nose, deals with itchy eyes, and stops sneezing. 0:04:00.013 --> 0:04:04.253 Leverrix is an antihistamine made in Switzerland to the highest quantity. 0:04:04.773 --> 0:04:07.933 So next time you're in need of an effective antihistamine, 0:04:08.373 --> 0:04:11.573 call into the pharmacy and ask for Leveris l e 0:04:11.813 --> 0:04:16.973 v Rix Leverix and always read the label, take us directed, 0:04:17.213 --> 0:04:21.053 and if symptoms persist, see your health professional. Farmer Broker 0:04:21.093 --> 0:04:27.253 Auckland Leighton Smith. We last spoke to Ashley Rinsburg in Well, 0:04:27.293 --> 0:04:29.693 it was two years ago, in twenty two, and we 0:04:29.813 --> 0:04:33.853 discussed essentially the Gray Lady winked his book on the 0:04:33.893 --> 0:04:37.253 New York Times, which was a huge success as far 0:04:37.293 --> 0:04:39.293 as I'm concerned, and I hope it is. Hope it 0:04:39.373 --> 0:04:42.613 is or was, well, still is as far as you're concerned. Ashley, 0:04:42.613 --> 0:04:44.453 Welcome back. It's great to have you on the Lake 0:04:44.493 --> 0:04:45.333 the Smith podcast. 0:04:45.613 --> 0:04:47.493 Thank you so much. Leadon glad to be here. 0:04:47.973 --> 0:04:50.693 And last time we spoke, you were in Tel Aviv 0:04:51.813 --> 0:04:58.013 and there were rockets falling at that particular time, and 0:04:58.053 --> 0:05:01.293 here we are today. I want to quote something that 0:05:01.373 --> 0:05:06.173 you wrote on October fourteen, last year, last Saturday, the 0:05:06.213 --> 0:05:09.173 world changed. Most of us didn't know it at the time, 0:05:09.373 --> 0:05:12.293 and what we did know about the situation unfolding in 0:05:12.333 --> 0:05:18.613 the southern Israel seemed beyond belief. Thirty five Israelis abducted 0:05:18.653 --> 0:05:24.213 into Gaza, young party goers massacred within Israeli territory. Question 0:05:24.293 --> 0:05:29.253 Marks follow all of these comments, children babies taken by 0:05:29.333 --> 0:05:33.653 Hamas terrorists, and scores of people murdered in their homes. 0:05:33.773 --> 0:05:37.053 None of these things, let alone all of them, was 0:05:37.093 --> 0:05:41.013 in the realm of the possible. You wrote that and 0:05:41.053 --> 0:05:45.613 published it a week after October seventh, How would you 0:05:45.773 --> 0:05:49.333 rate things today compared with what you as you saw 0:05:49.373 --> 0:05:53.773 it then one week after? Did you have any thought 0:05:54.133 --> 0:05:55.333 about where this could go? 0:05:56.293 --> 0:05:57.533 Not entirely. 0:05:57.573 --> 0:06:02.453 My only thought at the time was that Israel, in 0:06:02.573 --> 0:06:06.293 order to respond properly to what had happened, what Hamas 0:06:06.453 --> 0:06:09.853 and its allies had done, was that it would have 0:06:09.933 --> 0:06:14.413 to challenge the imagination of its enemies, and its enemies 0:06:14.413 --> 0:06:19.533 being Hamas, his Ballah and he Iran primarily. And what 0:06:19.533 --> 0:06:23.173 we've seen is that Israel has challenged the imagination of 0:06:23.253 --> 0:06:26.293 him us. It did us never thought it would or 0:06:26.373 --> 0:06:28.933 could do, And in the last week or so it's 0:06:28.973 --> 0:06:30.413 done the exact same with his Ballah. 0:06:31.093 --> 0:06:33.013 How much planning do you think would have gone into 0:06:33.013 --> 0:06:34.013 this and. 0:06:33.933 --> 0:06:38.053 In the case of his Balla, I would think almost 0:06:38.053 --> 0:06:42.853 two decades since the two thousand and six war in Lebanon. 0:06:43.693 --> 0:06:48.333 My guess is that there was intensive and long range 0:06:49.413 --> 0:06:53.573 intelligence and war planning on behalf of Israel which allowed 0:06:53.613 --> 0:06:57.413 Israel to pull off the kind of absolute strategic coup 0:06:57.893 --> 0:07:00.973 that it has done in the last week or so 0:07:01.253 --> 0:07:06.893 through the pager attacks the Beepers, through eliminating the entire 0:07:07.013 --> 0:07:13.133 command structure of his including recently its leader Hassan Nasralla. 0:07:14.293 --> 0:07:18.173 With Hamas, the planning I think was probably more ad 0:07:18.173 --> 0:07:21.733 hoc because I don't think Israel had any expectation that 0:07:21.853 --> 0:07:23.653 it was going to be attacked the way it was 0:07:23.693 --> 0:07:26.893 attacked on October seven, and I think in order to 0:07:27.373 --> 0:07:31.133 make up for Israeli surprise, there was probably a lot 0:07:31.133 --> 0:07:34.893 of scrambling going on in terms of how how does 0:07:34.893 --> 0:07:39.213 the country pull off a ground invasion and essentially an 0:07:39.213 --> 0:07:42.773 occupation of Gaza military occupation of Gaza in order to 0:07:42.853 --> 0:07:45.733 root out Hamas. I'm guessing a lot of that was 0:07:45.773 --> 0:07:48.893 done very much on the fly and very much as 0:07:48.933 --> 0:07:50.293 the situation was unpholding. 0:07:50.773 --> 0:07:55.213 Do you think that Israeli security, in whichever and all 0:07:55.253 --> 0:07:59.013 its forms, would have been surprised at the success of 0:07:59.053 --> 0:08:00.293 what they've had in the last week. 0:08:02.253 --> 0:08:03.573 I don't think they're surprised. 0:08:03.653 --> 0:08:06.453 I think this is something they've been planning for many, 0:08:06.493 --> 0:08:10.133 many years. They've had this option, this sort of it's 0:08:10.173 --> 0:08:13.253 been called the red button option, with the pagers and 0:08:13.773 --> 0:08:18.173 also with being able to locate and destroy the entire 0:08:18.213 --> 0:08:21.813 command structure of Isabella. I think they would have known 0:08:22.053 --> 0:08:26.053 they had this capability for many, many years, but they 0:08:26.133 --> 0:08:30.733 probably were avoiding using it because they didn't want to 0:08:31.013 --> 0:08:36.813 unnecessarily ignite a regional war. When Hamas committed the Atrucity 0:08:36.893 --> 0:08:39.893 atrocity is on October seventh, and on October eighth, or 0:08:39.933 --> 0:08:43.013 even on October seventh has Ballap again firing rockets and 0:08:43.053 --> 0:08:46.853 missiles into Israel, that regional war was already present for 0:08:47.053 --> 0:08:49.693 Israel and for Israelis. And this is something I think 0:08:49.733 --> 0:08:51.893 people in the West are missing, where we hear a 0:08:51.933 --> 0:08:56.533 lot of talk about Israeli escalation. For Israel, the war 0:08:56.653 --> 0:09:00.133 had already begun, and talk of escalation or de escalation 0:09:01.013 --> 0:09:03.733 is sort of irrelevant when you have one hundred thousand 0:09:03.773 --> 0:09:07.693 Israelis displaced from their homes in the north near the 0:09:07.693 --> 0:09:10.853 northern border with Lebanon. Yeah, you're already in the kind 0:09:10.893 --> 0:09:13.293 of regional war that everyone else is talking about avoiding. 0:09:13.653 --> 0:09:16.133 Well, let me turn the tables and ask us the 0:09:16.173 --> 0:09:19.213 same question from the other side. Do you think that 0:09:19.613 --> 0:09:24.493 firstly her Maass, secondly Isbella, and thirdly Iran would have 0:09:24.533 --> 0:09:28.413 expected anything like the payback that they've now got. 0:09:29.453 --> 0:09:32.133 No, definitely, not, definitely not. I think this is one 0:09:32.133 --> 0:09:35.653 of the things that Hamas. You know, there's this old 0:09:35.773 --> 0:09:38.333 old thing of course in war, which is to know 0:09:38.413 --> 0:09:41.453 your enemy. And Hamas in a way did know its enemy. 0:09:41.533 --> 0:09:44.893 It knew that Israel had grown a bit complacent. It 0:09:44.933 --> 0:09:49.973 had thought that Israel was a little bit over interested 0:09:50.293 --> 0:09:55.453 in peace and stability with Gaza, because Hamas had played 0:09:55.493 --> 0:09:59.893 that card very handily, where they had kept quiet, deliberately 0:10:00.293 --> 0:10:03.813 in order to fool Israel into thinking that there's had 0:10:03.853 --> 0:10:08.333 taken sort of a get along to go along strategy 0:10:08.653 --> 0:10:11.573 where you know, a sort of a practical piece, a 0:10:11.613 --> 0:10:16.173 pragmatic piece, if not a formal one, where in reality 0:10:16.733 --> 0:10:19.493 what they had been doing was planning and this invasion 0:10:19.533 --> 0:10:23.053 for many years. But what they didn't take into account 0:10:23.293 --> 0:10:29.533 was their own failing. Hamas was so zealous and so 0:10:29.693 --> 0:10:33.373 savage and barbaric in its attack, that it actually had 0:10:33.413 --> 0:10:37.093 an effect of changing its enemy, changing the Israeli posture, 0:10:37.573 --> 0:10:41.413 changing the Israeli mindset from one of containment and try 0:10:41.453 --> 0:10:45.413 to limit these kinds of interactions with Hamas into something 0:10:45.693 --> 0:10:49.533 that looked at the situation, said we have no choice 0:10:50.013 --> 0:10:53.573 except to wage a war that ends in Hamas's complete 0:10:53.653 --> 0:10:58.533 military destruction, if not political destruction. So Hamas overplayed its 0:10:58.573 --> 0:11:03.053 hand drastically, and it never could have seen. I think 0:11:03.133 --> 0:11:06.733 what twenty to thirty years of Israeli engagement had shown 0:11:06.773 --> 0:11:11.453 them was that Israel was really really disincentivized from having 0:11:11.973 --> 0:11:15.613 an aggressive ground invasion and occupation. It really did not 0:11:15.773 --> 0:11:18.173 want to go there. It was after the Gaza pull 0:11:18.173 --> 0:11:20.813 out in two thousand and five. It did not Israel 0:11:20.893 --> 0:11:22.853 did not want to be back in Gaza's the last 0:11:22.853 --> 0:11:24.893 thing every Israeli wanted in the country. 0:11:25.453 --> 0:11:28.133 But in this case, it left no choice. 0:11:28.173 --> 0:11:32.573 When you slaughter fifteen hundred civilians and take over two 0:11:32.613 --> 0:11:37.853 hundred people hostage into Gaza, you're only asking for the 0:11:37.893 --> 0:11:40.573 military power next door to you to come in and 0:11:40.613 --> 0:11:44.853 do something that neither party had really imagined possible. And 0:11:44.933 --> 0:11:47.773 I think with Hisbella the same as largely true. I 0:11:47.813 --> 0:11:50.453 think Isbela was thinking about this sort of tit for tat, 0:11:50.813 --> 0:11:55.573 limited engagement, very contained kind of interaction with Israel, and 0:11:55.613 --> 0:11:57.613 that's what they thought would go on, and that's what 0:11:57.653 --> 0:11:59.813 they needed to go on because the moment that they 0:11:59.933 --> 0:12:04.293 risked all out full confrontation with Israel, what they really 0:12:04.373 --> 0:12:08.933 risked was a Ran losing its key strategic weapon, which 0:12:09.013 --> 0:12:11.813 is his Bollah, and once that would happen, once that 0:12:11.933 --> 0:12:15.293 risk factor was in play, that meant that Iran would 0:12:15.333 --> 0:12:18.973 become completely exposed to Israel, which is now the case. 0:12:19.453 --> 0:12:23.653 Iran has is virtually defenseless, Its force projection is very limited, 0:12:23.893 --> 0:12:27.893 aside from its proxies, which is Hamas, Isballa, the Hutis 0:12:28.373 --> 0:12:32.733 and some Iraqi militias which are less effective than Hisbola 0:12:32.813 --> 0:12:35.973 and Homas. I don't think any of these groups saw 0:12:36.013 --> 0:12:39.333 this kind of route that we've seen that we've seen 0:12:39.373 --> 0:12:42.333 play on the last weeks and months coming, and I 0:12:42.373 --> 0:12:45.013 think they have been left in complete disarray. 0:12:45.413 --> 0:12:48.533 I'm looking at an article from The Australian which was 0:12:48.573 --> 0:12:52.773 published a couple of days ago. Has Israel absorbed all 0:12:52.813 --> 0:12:55.533 the lessons of the two thousand and six his Bela war. Now, 0:12:55.573 --> 0:12:59.213 you mentioned two thousand and six a moment ago. Do 0:12:59.293 --> 0:13:02.813 you think that, well, I would guess by what you 0:13:02.933 --> 0:13:05.053 said that. Do you think not only have they absorbed 0:13:05.093 --> 0:13:07.093 all the lessons of two thousand and six, they then 0:13:07.133 --> 0:13:09.613 embellished them. 0:13:09.653 --> 0:13:13.653 Definitely, Definitely they have. What they understood from two thousand 0:13:13.693 --> 0:13:17.693 and six was a they were in two thousand and six, 0:13:17.773 --> 0:13:21.333 they were relatively Israelis were relatively unprepared for that kind 0:13:21.373 --> 0:13:21.693 of war. 0:13:22.253 --> 0:13:22.853 In Israel. 0:13:22.893 --> 0:13:25.853 There there was a lot of talk among rank and 0:13:25.933 --> 0:13:30.413 file soldiers as well as officers, that it was an 0:13:30.453 --> 0:13:33.373 aimless war, that there was no direction. They weren't trying 0:13:33.413 --> 0:13:36.973 to destroy Habella, they weren't trying to push Hasbella away 0:13:36.973 --> 0:13:40.333 from the border. They really didn't know what they were 0:13:40.333 --> 0:13:42.733 doing or why they were there, aside from the fact 0:13:42.773 --> 0:13:47.613 that they were responding to a very brazen Hisbolla action, 0:13:47.773 --> 0:13:53.693 which was killing and taking captive Israeli soldiers relatively unprovoked. 0:13:53.693 --> 0:13:54.573 Again, there was sort of. 0:13:54.493 --> 0:13:58.693 A calm, pragmatic it's not exactly a piece, but it's 0:13:58.733 --> 0:14:01.893 sort of a non aggression along the border until that 0:14:01.973 --> 0:14:08.013 was violated by Hisbella. After that, Israel staged a ground 0:14:08.013 --> 0:14:11.853 in which was a very very punishing mostly for his Balla. 0:14:11.933 --> 0:14:15.813 There were Israeli losses, But I think what Israel learned 0:14:15.853 --> 0:14:18.333 from this is that A you need to be absolutely 0:14:18.413 --> 0:14:20.853 prepared and B you need to be driven by clear 0:14:20.893 --> 0:14:24.133 cut strategy, and in this case, the strategy we're seeing 0:14:24.133 --> 0:14:30.013 emerge is the incapacitation of Hisbolla as a fighting force. 0:14:30.733 --> 0:14:34.173 Turning to the political front in Israel, there's been there's 0:14:34.213 --> 0:14:38.973 been any amount of aggravation with regard to netn Yahoo 0:14:39.013 --> 0:14:42.093 and the way he has been conducting himself the country, 0:14:42.173 --> 0:14:47.773 et cetera from the opposition, and my observation is it 0:14:47.813 --> 0:14:51.133 was it was fairly widespread and in fact, in fact growing, 0:14:51.773 --> 0:14:55.453 tell me if I'm wrong. But the response to October sixth, 0:14:55.813 --> 0:15:03.853 as it is now revealing itself, has had what effect politically. 0:15:05.013 --> 0:15:09.693 Netanya, who's been in the last few weeks, actually very 0:15:09.773 --> 0:15:11.893 much strengthened. I would even say in the last week 0:15:12.453 --> 0:15:16.373 that his position has strengthened drastically. His polling has gone 0:15:16.493 --> 0:15:17.893 up very markedly. 0:15:18.613 --> 0:15:20.493 And you know, this is. 0:15:20.533 --> 0:15:25.493 A case of nothing succeeds quite like success where there 0:15:25.613 --> 0:15:27.893 you know, the opposition to him is still there, it's 0:15:27.893 --> 0:15:32.773 still very much present, especially since Israel still has something 0:15:32.933 --> 0:15:36.373 like one hundred hostages being held in Gaza with no 0:15:36.373 --> 0:15:38.693 notion how they're going to be returned, and at the 0:15:38.773 --> 0:15:42.653 end of the day, the opposition has a very valid point, 0:15:42.693 --> 0:15:46.893 which is that the government was responsible for securing our 0:15:46.973 --> 0:15:51.333 safety as israelis in the country, and it failed utterly 0:15:51.493 --> 0:15:55.013 in the worst possible way, and the person who bears 0:15:55.053 --> 0:15:56.933 responsibility for that is the person. 0:15:56.733 --> 0:15:57.213 At the top. 0:15:57.493 --> 0:16:00.453 The bucks should stop somewhere and should stop with nt 0:16:00.493 --> 0:16:05.773 Nyahu in this case, because he's actually pulled off such 0:16:05.813 --> 0:16:09.613 an incredible strategic feat. I think he's been given a 0:16:09.733 --> 0:16:13.573 massive political lifeline. We'll see in the next few weeks 0:16:13.613 --> 0:16:17.093 and months, especially coming up to the election in America 0:16:17.213 --> 0:16:22.053 in November. Which way that goes, this could lead to 0:16:22.973 --> 0:16:25.733 much greater pressure on Hamas and on Iran to put 0:16:25.893 --> 0:16:29.853 pressure on Hamas to cut a deal with Israel, a 0:16:29.893 --> 0:16:33.773 realistic deal, not a deal that it knows Israel cannot 0:16:33.813 --> 0:16:38.213 possibly agree to, that would have a ceasefire in Gaza 0:16:38.373 --> 0:16:42.013 and the return of the hostages and perhaps some other 0:16:42.093 --> 0:16:48.253 kinds of conditions. But is Natanyahu's hand is massively, massively 0:16:48.253 --> 0:16:51.973 strengthened by what's gone on just in the last week, so. 0:16:52.053 --> 0:16:58.133 Many tangents to proceed with. Yeah. In twenty eighteen, Henry 0:16:58.213 --> 0:17:01.173 Kissinger observed that Donald Trump was one of those historical 0:17:01.333 --> 0:17:04.613 characters who appears from time to time to mark the 0:17:04.773 --> 0:17:07.173 end of an era, they to force it to give 0:17:07.253 --> 0:17:12.493 up its old tenses. Close quote. The same could be 0:17:12.533 --> 0:17:16.253 said about last year's October seventh attacks, the full impact 0:17:16.253 --> 0:17:20.373 of which we are only now beginning to comprehend. The 0:17:20.413 --> 0:17:23.373 introduction of Donald Trump into this is is for a 0:17:23.453 --> 0:17:28.733 reason as a continuation of the position that Nettna, who 0:17:28.773 --> 0:17:32.493 now finds himself in, as you've just described there, there's 0:17:32.573 --> 0:17:36.053 been quite a bit from some quarters, in particular in 0:17:36.413 --> 0:17:41.333 America describing the situation that Netanya, who found himself in 0:17:41.413 --> 0:17:45.573 with the opposition and the media, was very similar to 0:17:45.613 --> 0:17:49.213 the one that the Trump has experienced. And I wonder 0:17:49.253 --> 0:17:52.893 if there's not a parallel from which one could one 0:17:52.933 --> 0:17:58.653 can learn from the other. But more importantly, as you 0:17:58.693 --> 0:18:04.653 were alluding, the outcome of November five will have some 0:18:05.093 --> 0:18:09.813 considerable input into what happens to let Nyaho and too 0:18:09.853 --> 0:18:10.653 Israel in general. 0:18:11.733 --> 0:18:14.253 Definitely, definitely the absolutely decisive. 0:18:14.293 --> 0:18:18.733 I mean, I don't think Kamala Harris as president will 0:18:18.813 --> 0:18:24.613 have much patience for giving Israel, to giving Israel too 0:18:24.653 --> 0:18:28.133 much strategic leeway. I mean, she's shown that. Biden has 0:18:28.253 --> 0:18:32.213 also shown a certain degree of impatience with You know, 0:18:32.253 --> 0:18:33.973 at the end of the day, they have a very 0:18:35.133 --> 0:18:38.333 specific kind of political voter base that they need to 0:18:38.373 --> 0:18:42.773 appeal to, and they are not looking to anger a 0:18:42.813 --> 0:18:47.053 lot of their progressive voters who are anti Israel. 0:18:47.253 --> 0:18:48.893 Just call it what it is. 0:18:49.533 --> 0:18:53.333 So there imperative will be to reign and to the 0:18:53.373 --> 0:18:55.693 extent that they can, It's not clear that they can 0:18:56.053 --> 0:18:58.573 at this point because Biden has been trying and he's 0:18:58.613 --> 0:18:59.853 been failing. 0:19:00.213 --> 0:19:01.013 For most of the war. 0:19:01.293 --> 0:19:03.733 He has been there for Israel, he has provided weapons, 0:19:03.773 --> 0:19:06.773 he did show up, but as the war went on, 0:19:06.933 --> 0:19:10.133 he was attempting to bring it to a close, mostly 0:19:10.173 --> 0:19:12.973 for political reasons, and he's not been able to do that. 0:19:13.373 --> 0:19:18.373 Whereas Trump, as we've seen, really has a sore spot. 0:19:18.093 --> 0:19:19.253 When it comes to Iran. 0:19:19.773 --> 0:19:27.013 He remembers the Iranian hostage crisis, where the same revolutionary 0:19:27.053 --> 0:19:30.373 Islamist revolutionaries that run the country today took the US 0:19:30.413 --> 0:19:36.093 embassy hostage just after the revolution and humiliated America, humiliated 0:19:36.133 --> 0:19:39.453 a superpower, and at the time Jimmy Carter was unable 0:19:39.493 --> 0:19:43.413 to respond. He was unable to muster a commensurate response 0:19:43.493 --> 0:19:46.453 to pressure Iran to release the hostages. It was only 0:19:46.533 --> 0:19:51.253 until Ronald Reagan took the office that that happened. And 0:19:51.293 --> 0:19:54.253 I think Trump looks back on that and says, says 0:19:54.253 --> 0:19:57.373 to himself, there is no way that a global superpower 0:19:57.453 --> 0:20:01.453 should be cow towing to a regional power at best, 0:20:01.893 --> 0:20:06.373 which is why during his presidency he took a remarkably 0:20:06.413 --> 0:20:14.253 bold step of killing assassinating Solomoni, who is their most 0:20:14.253 --> 0:20:19.013 important military figure to the Islamic regime in Iran. And 0:20:19.053 --> 0:20:22.893 that's because you know, I think he has very little 0:20:22.933 --> 0:20:26.333 patience with Iran. Just it's sort of a mirror image 0:20:26.373 --> 0:20:31.933 between Kamala Harris's impatience with Israel and Trump's impatients with Iran. 0:20:32.013 --> 0:20:35.253 So they both have chosen sides, and that election outcome 0:20:35.413 --> 0:20:39.453 will be very important for what goes what happens next. 0:20:39.733 --> 0:20:41.733 But I think Israel is also looking at this very 0:20:41.813 --> 0:20:44.333 narrow gap in time that we have right now from 0:20:44.373 --> 0:20:48.093 the beginning of October until the election, until we know 0:20:48.133 --> 0:20:50.373 who is going to be the president elect, And in 0:20:50.413 --> 0:20:53.973 this sort of gray area, it's got the most freedom 0:20:54.013 --> 0:20:57.053 to operate that it will have until we know the 0:20:57.093 --> 0:20:58.093 outcome of that election. 0:20:58.733 --> 0:21:02.733 It's really quite extraordinary because you described it almost perfectly, 0:21:02.773 --> 0:21:08.693 if not more so. There's been some considerable discussion about 0:21:09.253 --> 0:21:14.853 the uncertainties of the scenario, the world situation at the moment, 0:21:15.733 --> 0:21:19.853 with the American president being not ineffective and a state 0:21:19.933 --> 0:21:23.493 of some considerable confusion. I'd suggest that exists in the 0:21:23.613 --> 0:21:29.333 American governance and what alien powers might do, and I'm 0:21:29.373 --> 0:21:34.813 talking China and even North Korea and Iran, etc. While 0:21:34.813 --> 0:21:38.733 they've got this opportunity. But instead of that, at this point, 0:21:38.733 --> 0:21:43.213 we're talking about Israel being, if you're going to be 0:21:43.253 --> 0:21:48.453 realistic about it and innocent in this, defending itself rather 0:21:48.533 --> 0:21:53.453 than rather than asserting its strength to gain whatever. It's 0:21:53.493 --> 0:21:56.933 a reversal of what most people sought. Let me ask 0:21:56.973 --> 0:22:01.133 you to extend your experience and knowledge with regard to 0:22:01.533 --> 0:22:05.093 those other countries that I just mentioned, and you might 0:22:05.133 --> 0:22:08.893 want to include a couple more. Are you of any 0:22:08.893 --> 0:22:14.693 opinion they could extend the stress that we're experiencing at 0:22:14.733 --> 0:22:15.093 the moment. 0:22:17.253 --> 0:22:20.453 I think there's certainly an incentive for some of them. 0:22:20.533 --> 0:22:25.333 I mean, Russia and Iran have been more closely cooperating 0:22:25.333 --> 0:22:26.933 over the last few months. I mean, this is a 0:22:26.973 --> 0:22:32.413 long standing relationship, but we have now Iran supplying missiles 0:22:32.573 --> 0:22:35.813 and other weaponry to Russia and vice versa. Russia has 0:22:35.813 --> 0:22:41.813 supplied some air defense to Iran, and this is sort 0:22:41.813 --> 0:22:45.933 of that the larger you know, the Iranians talk about 0:22:45.973 --> 0:22:48.733 the axis of resistance, which is sort of an Islamic 0:22:49.013 --> 0:22:56.573 resistance to Israel, which spans Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. 0:22:57.373 --> 0:23:00.893 But there's a bigger axis, which is the one you've 0:23:00.933 --> 0:23:05.173 sort of alluded to, which is China, Russia, Iran, and 0:23:05.413 --> 0:23:09.293 Venezuela sort of circling the globe from Far East Asia 0:23:09.373 --> 0:23:14.653 to the Americas. So they are trying to maintain that 0:23:14.893 --> 0:23:19.333 power structure visa vi the West, where Israel, of course, 0:23:19.453 --> 0:23:22.693 is very closely aligned to the United States. It's one 0:23:22.693 --> 0:23:27.533 of its closest allies, and for China Russia to be 0:23:27.573 --> 0:23:31.533 able to disrupt that alliance would be a major strategic 0:23:31.573 --> 0:23:35.733 win for them, which is why they've opposed Israel. That said, 0:23:35.813 --> 0:23:38.853 no one wants to back a loser, especially not China. 0:23:39.213 --> 0:23:42.933 I mean, Russia might have some sort of ideological sympathies 0:23:42.933 --> 0:23:45.453 with the Iran that dig back to the Soviet Union, 0:23:45.533 --> 0:23:49.293 which we know Putin is still very much nostalgic about. 0:23:49.573 --> 0:23:52.413 But I don't think China has any such qualms and 0:23:52.493 --> 0:23:55.973 any such ideological hang ups. I think they're looking to 0:23:56.453 --> 0:24:00.653 who is most effective in boosting Chinese power and Chinese interests. 0:24:01.173 --> 0:24:04.053 Right now, the equation is still pretty simple because Israel 0:24:04.173 --> 0:24:07.213 is so tightly aligned with the US and allied with 0:24:07.293 --> 0:24:10.213 the US. But I would think that China's got its 0:24:10.293 --> 0:24:13.813 antenna up in the air waiting to see who is 0:24:13.853 --> 0:24:17.813 the smarter power to back, especially as we see a 0:24:17.853 --> 0:24:22.013 weakened US on the world stage, where the United States 0:24:22.373 --> 0:24:25.133 has not asserted itself the way that it had in 0:24:25.653 --> 0:24:29.133 the past decades, and China is looking to step into 0:24:29.573 --> 0:24:32.653 that role, and it wants strong allies. It doesn't want 0:24:32.653 --> 0:24:34.933 weak allies, and if it looks at Iran and looks 0:24:34.933 --> 0:24:37.373 at a weak ally, it would rather trade I would 0:24:37.413 --> 0:24:43.093 think for a strong, bold, technologically sophisticated Israel rather than 0:24:43.093 --> 0:24:47.813 a sort of backward Islamist fundamentalist regime that we have 0:24:47.933 --> 0:24:48.493 in Iran. 0:24:49.333 --> 0:24:52.333 If I can refer to the situation in the Middle 0:24:52.333 --> 0:24:59.333 East as essentially a religion issue, is what's going on 0:24:59.413 --> 0:25:02.133 at the moment. Do you think driven by what has 0:25:02.173 --> 0:25:06.693 existed in the past, or is there a broadening of 0:25:07.493 --> 0:25:12.813 should we say skul for the situation that well that exists. 0:25:12.813 --> 0:25:17.933 Now we're seeing something that's really I think unfolding and 0:25:17.973 --> 0:25:21.133 emerging in a very different way than we had seen 0:25:21.173 --> 0:25:24.973 in the past. You know, under the Trump administration, we 0:25:25.093 --> 0:25:30.093 had the Abraham Accords, which forged actual peace between Israel 0:25:30.293 --> 0:25:35.173 and a number of Gulf Arab states, which was truly, 0:25:35.253 --> 0:25:39.573 truly remarkable, and right up until October seventh, Israel and 0:25:39.613 --> 0:25:43.053 Saudi Arabia were on track to normalize relations, so they 0:25:43.053 --> 0:25:47.173 would have diplomatic relations and sort of over time unfold 0:25:47.533 --> 0:25:50.893 economic relations, trade relations, all all those kinds of things, 0:25:50.973 --> 0:25:55.093 just as we have done with UAE with Dubai, where 0:25:55.213 --> 0:26:00.933 you now have Israelis living in Dubai, buying property there, 0:26:01.093 --> 0:26:05.533 working there, you have synagogues there, you have kosher food. 0:26:05.573 --> 0:26:09.133