1 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: Kiota. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran has 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 2: vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely if the 5 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: US follows through on President Donald Trump's threats. It's after 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to open the passage before 7 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: American forces obliterate their power plants. But if that happens, 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: there'd be a large scale blackout resulting in widespread civilian harm. 9 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: So the question then becomes, would that be a violation 10 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 2: of international law? Today on the front Page, why get 11 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: the University International law professor ol Gillespie is with us 12 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: to take us through what could happen next? So our 13 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 2: what do you make of Trump's latest threat to bomb 14 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: power plants? 15 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 3: Legally, it's a very difficult thing to do because you're 16 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 3: not meant to attack civilian infrastructure unless he's a clear 17 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 3: military objective. The problem is that Iran is doing exactly 18 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 3: the same threatening civilian objects as well around the Gulf 19 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: and also in the war in Ukraine. It's attactic that 20 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 3: Russia does, and so legally it's something that neither side 21 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 3: should be doing. But increasing everyone's doing that action. But 22 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 3: the wider problem is is that it escalates the war. 23 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: And this is exactly what Iran wants. They want to 24 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: make it more indiscriminate and disproportionate and put more countries 25 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 3: into it, and it will make it harder for Trump 26 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: to extricate himself. 27 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: Yeah. 28 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 2: Well, Trump posted on social media at eleven forty four 29 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: pm GMT that if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, 30 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 2: the Straight of hor moves within forty eight hours from 31 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: this exact point in time, the United States of America 32 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 2: will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with 33 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 2: the biggest one, first in Capital So the deadline will 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: end abut out midday March twenty four for US. First off, 35 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 2: what are the ramifications If the US does in fact 36 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: bomb Iran's power plants? 37 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: Legally, it's very unlikely they'll ever be how to account 38 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 3: because you're a superpower politically. The ramification is that Iran 39 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 3: wars respond in kind, and they will attack similar objects 40 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 3: around the Gulf, and so you could, I imagine you 41 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 3: will see power plants being attacked, desalination plants being attacked, attacked, airports, 42 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: and war is meant to have rules, But what you're 43 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 3: seeing and increasingly is that a lawless version of this 44 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 3: warfare breaking out, and that makes it more difficult to 45 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 3: find peace. But it also plays into Iran's hands because 46 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 3: as it becomes more lawless, the necessity for American support 47 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 3: boots on the ground to regain order will become higher, 48 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 3: and that's exactly what Iran wants. 49 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: Well. 50 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 2: Putting the entire legality of the war side for a second, 51 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 2: you mentioned it could be illegal to attack a country's 52 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 2: power plants, causing because large scale blackouts, disrupting hospitals, water pumping, sewerage, 53 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 2: civilians suffering would be significant in terms of the laws 54 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 2: of armed conflict. 55 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: That is a civilian structure. 56 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 2: But is it a good enough excuse being like, well, 57 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: they did it first. 58 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 3: No, you cannot practice reprisals. A reprisal is where one 59 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 3: illegal act follows another illegal act. But that's exactly where 60 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 3: we are right now, where they're both threatening each other 61 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 3: to escalate the situation by putting in pain on civilians. 62 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 3: But that pain on civilians which Iran is practicing is 63 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 3: something which is not just around. But you attack on 64 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 3: places like power plant or oil and gas manufacturing, it's 65 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 3: also on civilian vessels where they're trying to block the waterway, 66 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 3: and the same rule applies is that the freedom of 67 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 3: navigation should be applicable for all boats which are civilian 68 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 3: and not caring contraband, and that includes oil tankers. But 69 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 3: Iran is violating that rule as well at the same time. 70 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 3: But the Iranian position is that this war was illegal 71 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 3: to begin with. If it's an illegal war, anything goes. 72 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 3: But that's wrong, that's not the correct answer. 73 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, so what are the ramifications after all the said 74 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: and done, then. 75 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: That it's likely that more countries will get involved. At 76 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 3: the moment, there's been a lot of restrained by both 77 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 3: the countries around Iran and also the Friends of America, 78 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 3: which will include Australia and New Zealand. And what you 79 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 3: saw on the weekend where nineteen countries joined a statement 80 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 3: saying that they're willing to look at the defense of 81 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 3: the waterway. I think is a pathway for our intervention. 82 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 3: And so even though we would not be part of 83 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 3: actually condoning the illegal war to begin with, we may 84 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 3: be part of the process of defending the waterway. 85 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: We're pretty adamant that we're not going to have new 86 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 2: Zealand boots on the ground, right, But. 87 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: Does that mean offensively? What about defensively? 88 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 2: Is that a bit of a loophole that we can 89 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: actually get over there if we're defending the waterway. 90 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 3: There's a lot of ways we can help with the 91 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 3: defense of the waterway. Sometimes it's about intelligence sharing and 92 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 3: it's what we're doing with the Red Sea. Other times 93 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 3: it's about replacing the vessels of us the country so 94 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 3: that they can be deployed to the region so we 95 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 3: might take up some of the patrolling duties of the 96 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 3: American boats. The last case scenario is where we put 97 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 3: our aircraft where our own vessels into that waterway, and 98 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 3: that's quite unlikely, but that is one line for the 99 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 3: defensive part of the waterway. The practical problem is that 100 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: to defend the waterway, it's not just about the water 101 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 3: it's also about the coastline. Because it's from the coast 102 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 3: that you get the vessels, you get bedroned, and you 103 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 3: get be sea mines, and so it's one thing to 104 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 3: have your boats in there. It's another thing to have 105 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 3: boots on the ground to defend that area. And that's 106 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 3: where you might find that there is a necessity for 107 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 3: some soldiers to be placed around those. 108 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 2: Coastal zoned what's the likelihood that those will be Kiwi soldiers? 109 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 3: I think unlikely, But these things are very easy to 110 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 3: say no to it at the beginning. But if you've 111 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: really got to control the straight, and you have to 112 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 3: control the straight because of the economic consequences, the way 113 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 3: this plays out are unexpected and unforeseen at the moment. 114 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 3: So I think that they will have to be boots 115 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 3: on the ground. But you've also got to put boots 116 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 3: on the ground not just to control the waterway, but 117 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 3: also to secure the nuclear material which is currently in 118 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 3: the wind. And so the possibility of not having boots 119 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 3: on the ground to control the situation I think is unlikely. 120 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: There's been a suggestion that Iranian missiles could theoretically reach 121 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 2: European capitals. How did this conversation even start? 122 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 3: This isn't actually news. This has been known for quite 123 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 3: some time. In terms of technology, they have the capability 124 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: to have a much greater range than they're currently being utilized, 125 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 3: but so far it's been restrained, and I don't think 126 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 3: we're seeing everything which is in the Iranian kit. What 127 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: we've also seen is multiple reentry vehicles coming through whereby 128 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 3: one missile comes over and it turns into a number 129 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 3: of warheads. And so there are things that Iran has 130 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 3: not yet deployed, which I think they're probably holding up 131 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 3: this leave waiting for the right opportunity. 132 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: Well, the caveat here is isn't it that these weapons 133 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: aren't incredibly accurate. They're about the size of a London 134 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 2: bus or something, aren't they. 135 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, and that too the war crime and 136 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 3: so like, if you do use a missile, it should 137 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: be accurate and its impact proportionate, and you should not 138 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 3: be to firing them into cities. But that is increasingly 139 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 3: what Iran is doing. That they are indiscriminate into attacks 140 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 3: and that is illegal. 141 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: Well, it's also the IDF saying that Tedan has now 142 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 2: missiles capable of reaching the likes of London, Paris, Berlin. 143 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 2: How much weight should we put behind their word? 144 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 3: I think it's probably accurate, but at the moment we 145 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 3: must be aware also that Israel has an interest in 146 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 3: trying to bring more countries into the conflict, not keep 147 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 3: them out. But I do think that the threat is there, 148 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 3: although the amount of weight we put onto that threat 149 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 3: is for each of us to decide. But this is 150 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 3: part of the reason that some countries and mister Trump 151 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: in particular, was saying he had to intervene to control 152 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 3: the ballistic missile threat. The problem is that to control 153 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 3: the ballistic missile threat requires a huge amount of oversight 154 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 3: of their infrastructure, which would require a much greater intervention 155 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 3: than is currently envisaged. 156 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: I think we won. 157 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 3: We We've knocked out their navy, their air force, we've 158 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 3: knocked out their anti air crab, We've knocked out everything. 159 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 3: We're roaming free. From a military standpoint, all they're doing 160 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 3: is plugging up the street. But from a military standpoint, 161 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 3: they're finished. 162 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: I saw that US Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz. 163 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 2: He told CBS that no option is off the table 164 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 2: when it comes to Iran, and that includes bombing nuclear 165 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 2: power plants. 166 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: Does that change the game at all? 167 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 3: Again, it's an legal act. You should not be targeting 168 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 3: nuclear power plants. They are certain objects have a particular 169 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 3: protection and international humanitarian law, like large dams which hold water, 170 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 3: or like nuclear power plants. And the reason we have 171 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 3: this is that even though you may destroy the plant, 172 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,839 Speaker 3: the impact on civilians is catastrophic and the impact on 173 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 3: the environment is long lasting, and so you can expect 174 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 3: though that if the Iranian nuclear power plants are targeted, 175 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 3: Iran will respond in kind. And it may not just 176 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 3: be in terms of targeting, that may also be in 177 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 3: terms of tourism, because we've got to now control their 178 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 3: stockpile of highly enriched uranium to make sure that that 179 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 3: is not diverted or given to the wrong actors. Right now, 180 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 3: there is no good faith between these two sides, and 181 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 3: so America negotiated in bad faith and then they assassinated 182 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 3: their religious leader. And so the chance is that the 183 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 3: Iranian authorities are going to show restraint in the way 184 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 3: that they respond to America are I don't think they will. 185 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 3: I think they're going to look for the right opportunity 186 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 3: to inflict maximum pain. And it's what they're doing with 187 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 3: the straight right now. 188 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 2: What if Trump doesn't follow through with this threat, it 189 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 2: makes them look weak. 190 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 3: That's what I thought, and mister Trump is. But it's 191 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 3: very hard to know what mister Trump wants to achieve 192 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 3: because he hasn't even set out clearly what the objective 193 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 3: of the war is. I mean, on one hand, it's 194 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 3: about nuclear control and another hand it's about ballistic missiles, 195 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 3: then it's about regime change. Now it's about the Strait 196 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 3: of hor Moos. And so we don't know how until 197 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 3: you state your objectives, you don't know how long the 198 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,439 Speaker 3: war will even last. But he is most dangerous when 199 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 3: he's got his back against the wall. And Iran knows this, 200 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 3: and so they know they can put pressure on mister 201 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 3: Trump by controlling for straight And they also know they 202 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 3: can make the war worse by starting a sectarian conflict 203 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 3: with its neighbors, and so Iran will thrive into chaos. 204 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 3: That's exactly what a despotic regime wants. 205 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 2: It is incredibly interesting. I think with Trump, the change 206 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 2: in rhetoric. He was once all about peace. He wanted 207 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 2: a Nobel Peace Prize at one stage, and now he's 208 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 2: targeted his response to whatever Israel and Benjamin Etna who 209 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 2: want to do. Why do you think that is he 210 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 2: just desperate to secure a legacy before he. 211 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: Can't run again for president or something. 212 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 3: I to find a contradiction in the way that he 213 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 3: wanted no more intervention of foreign wars, and now he's 214 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 3: gone head first into the most difficult conflict that was 215 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 3: seen for the last few decades. Why he's doing it, 216 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: I think partly legacy, and that's why his concern is 217 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 3: not just around Iran, it's also around Cuba and Venezuela. 218 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 3: And I think he's interested in being that president who's 219 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 3: remembered in posterity for the one who took down these 220 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 3: difficult regimes, the challenges, they're not easy to take down, 221 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 3: and it may end up that they end up taking 222 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 3: him down. 223 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 2: The IDF has warned there are several more weeks of 224 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 2: fighting still to come, and that's in Iran and against 225 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: Hezbolla in Lebanon. What effect could this have on the 226 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 2: world's oil supply when we're talking about days versus weeks, 227 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 2: and perhaps than even months. 228 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: A lot of countries are currently panicking right now with 229 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: regards to oil supply, and as contracts get voided because 230 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 3: of the conflict, the oil goes into the open market 231 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: to basic supply and demand, and this is driving up 232 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 3: price rapidly. Some countries will manage much better than others. 233 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 3: Always in conflict, the price of energy increases. The question 234 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 3: is how long the conflict is and how long it 235 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,199 Speaker 3: takes to rebuild infrastructure. So we saw it in nineteen 236 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 3: ninety one. We saw it in two thousand and three, 237 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 3: we saw in twenty fourteen, in twenty twenty two. This 238 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 3: could take depending on the length of the conflict and 239 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 3: how bad it gets, and it could take years to 240 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 3: bring the price down. And if we get into the 241 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 3: point where we start knocking out each other's infrastructure around 242 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 3: the region, the pain will be longer rather than shorter. 243 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 2: And speaking of the Hezbollah in Lebanon, people may think, well, 244 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 2: why has Lebanon entered the chat at all? 245 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: What is the connection there? 246 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 3: They are another one of the proxies for Iran, And 247 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 3: so it's not just the Hisbola and Lebanon that we 248 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 3: need to be watching. It's also the Huthi and Yemen 249 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 3: who have been suspiciously quiet for quite some time. But 250 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 3: this is part of the problem of Iran, that they 251 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 3: have a number of local groups that they support who 252 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 3: will to act on their behalf, often in an illegal way. 253 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 3: But having said that, Israel will also be taking the 254 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: opportunity to secure their own objectives that overlap with this 255 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 3: current war against their neighbors. 256 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 2: Lebanese President Joseph Ayon says that Israel's attacks on bridges 257 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 2: in the south of Lebanon are a prelude to a 258 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 2: ground invasion. 259 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 1: What's the significance of that wording. 260 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 3: That we can expect that this conflict is going to 261 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 3: get worse, not better. And as much as you're looking 262 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 3: at the possibility of boots on the ground in Iran 263 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 3: with a strong possibility that there'll also be Israeli boots 264 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 3: in Lebanon as well. 265 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: And what is the risk of then it's spreading. 266 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 3: It won't spread that much. But these groups want that, 267 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,319 Speaker 3: they want to bring the opposition into these areas because 268 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 3: that's where you level the playing field, where you fight 269 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 3: street by street. You don't bomb them from the air. 270 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 3: And if there's an advantage to be played, it's for 271 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 3: groups in Iran and groups in Lebanon to pull these 272 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 3: soldiers in. But if you want to control these places, 273 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 3: it's what you've got to do. 274 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly what you said as well, isn't it. 275 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: Iran actually thrives in chaos. 276 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 3: Iran wants a sectarian war with its neighbors. It wants 277 00:13:55,720 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 3: a theocratic problem whereby that they can justify themselves and 278 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 3: support their own regime, which is already very dubious and 279 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 3: repugnant in many ways. But the more that they feel 280 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 3: pressure from external enemies, and the more that they can 281 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 3: pull these enemies into their own homeland, the more advantage 282 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 3: they will get. 283 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: In a statement online, I saw that the Iranian president 284 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 2: there masurd Pezeshkian says that US threats against around show desperation. 285 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: Would you agree. 286 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 3: I think mister Trump is underestimating his opponents. These people 287 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 3: do not fear him like he thinks other people fear him. 288 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 3: They will often welcome the fight, and has threatening puts 289 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: himself vulnerable if he doesn't follow through. But if he 290 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 3: does follow through, he's going to escalate the situation, which 291 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:42,239 Speaker 3: will be worse for America. 292 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 2: Is there any way that the US will ever lose 293 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: its superpower status? 294 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 3: I don't think in our lifetime. 295 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 2: It is Trump doing a pretty good job at going 296 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 2: down that route. 297 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 3: Mister Trump is going down a route which is causing 298 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 3: a lot of chaos in the international system, which is 299 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 3: undermine in a rurals based order, and he's creating a 300 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 3: problem which is pulling other countries into it. So in 301 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 3: an ideal world, this is something that would be would 302 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 3: have been an illegal war would have started, and it 303 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 3: would have been for Israel and America to deal with. 304 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 3: But because the illegal war is now responding with illegal 305 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 3: actions on the part of Iran, other countries which could 306 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 3: include ours, could get pulled in, and so we are 307 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 3: beginning to pay the price for some of his chaos. 308 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 3: That's not just at the petrol pump, which all of 309 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 3: us are currently feeling. It's also in the possibilities of 310 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: joining the military conflict. We don't agree with you. 311 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 4: They've been properties from around all this time and that 312 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 4: out there creating chaos, capturing boats and all sorts of 313 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 4: pricy going on. 314 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 3: It's sooner at him. 315 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: You know, the world has says to itself, and even 316 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: the Middle East is saying to ourself, we've had a 317 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: guts full. 318 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 2: Do you think that we will join the military conflict 319 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 2: that we don't agree with anytime soon? 320 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: Given its election year. 321 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 3: I think that the nineteen countries which went into a 322 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 3: statement over the weekend about needs to work collectively to 323 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 3: protect the International Waterway. New Zealand will be part of 324 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 3: that group, and that's the right place to be, because 325 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 3: we can't let countries just block international waterways or attack 326 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: daw use areas. But it's a paper war between the 327 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 3: illegal war that began and the legal actions that followed, 328 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 3: and we might find that where we are in a 329 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 3: month's time to be very different to where we are today. 330 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 2: I think everyone's in agreement when they say the Iranian 331 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 2: regime is not a good one. Okay, But does attacking 332 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 2: a regime justify the negative ramifications on ninety one million. 333 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 3: People they are a repugnant regime. I mean, we should 334 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 3: not mince our words. But the problem is is that 335 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 3: if you break this regime open that trying to contain 336 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 3: the ninety one million people underneath it will be very difficult. 337 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 3: There are ethnic difficulties, there are ideological difficulties, and there 338 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 3: are religious differences, and the possibility that the country could 339 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 3: split open its own civil war is quite strong. And also, 340 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 3: we must not use the criteria of people we don't 341 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 3: like as a justification for intervention, because for lists of 342 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 3: countries we don't like but don't intervene in, it is 343 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 3: quite a long list. 344 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 2: And it's pretty safe to say that of those ninety 345 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,199 Speaker 2: one million people who live in Iran, not all of 346 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 2: them would enjoy the regime that they're currently under. 347 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 3: I think many of them don't enjoy that regime that 348 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 3: they're under. And I think one of my concerns is 349 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 3: that these people are at foremost risk right now, because 350 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 3: while the Iranians may not be able to shoot down 351 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 3: the American and the Israeli planes, they will be able 352 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 3: to turn their anger against their own dissidents, and these 353 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 3: people who have spoken out against their regime are at risk. 354 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 3: But the part of the problem is is that mister 355 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 3: Trump is trying to encourage these people to speak out 356 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 3: when it's not clear that they'll be safe to do so. 357 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, ou You're welcome, Chelsea. That's it 358 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,159 Speaker 1: for this episode of the Front Page. 359 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 4: You can read more about today's stories and extensive news 360 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 4: coverage at enzidhrald dot co dot nz. The Front Page 361 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 4: is hosted and produce by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky 362 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 4: is our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, 363 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 4: and our executive producer is Jane Ye. Follow the Front 364 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 4: Page on the iHeart app or wherever you get your. 365 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: Podcasts, and join us next time for another look beyond 366 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: the headlines.