1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,720
Speaker 1: To the Iran conflict. It's nearing day four now. The

2
00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 1: US has now urged its citizens to leave fourteen Middle

3
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,760
Speaker 1: East countries. Donald Trump says he expects the water last

4
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,080
Speaker 1: four to five weeks, but he does have the capability

5
00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,119
Speaker 1: to go a lot longer, and he's not ruling out

6
00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:18,360
Speaker 1: sending in troops. Glenn Carl is a FORMACYIA intelligence officer. Hi, Glenn, Hello,

7
00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,400
Speaker 1: do you get the sense that this conflict has widened

8
00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,720
Speaker 1: faster than perhaps even the US expected?

9
00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:29,720
Speaker 2: I don't think so. It was pretty clear. I think

10
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:34,600
Speaker 2: that if the United States attacked Iran, that Iran would

11
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 2: respond by trying to strike American facilities throughout the region.

12
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,200
Speaker 2: And that's really what they've done. And I also think

13
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,520
Speaker 2: so far I got something else right, which was that

14
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,240
Speaker 2: the Iranians would initially at least attempt or decide rather

15
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,320
Speaker 2: not to go after an aircraft carrier or the ships,

16
00:00:55,440 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 2: because that, I think would be viewed as a an

17
00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,080
Speaker 2: inflection point in the United States would then clearly decide

18
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,640
Speaker 2: to destroy the regime entirely. So so far, attacking the

19
00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:13,600
Speaker 2: American bases throughout the region has meant that the Iranians

20
00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:18,000
Speaker 2: are striking most everywhere. Really but that has not surprised me.

21
00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:20,760
Speaker 1: What does Trump mean you think when he says the

22
00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,759
Speaker 1: hardest hit is yet to come?

23
00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,440
Speaker 2: Well, I think that I don't think Trump. I think

24
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 2: often Trump doesn't really know what he's saying. He's speaking

25
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:37,640
Speaker 2: in sort of vague, vague terms without having reading things out. However,

26
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,880
Speaker 2: in this instance, I think what that must mean really

27
00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,720
Speaker 2: is that it's relatively straightforward to go after air defense

28
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 2: systems and the missile launch systems and the specific command

29
00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,480
Speaker 2: and control locations. Those are the targets that you initially

30
00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,680
Speaker 2: go after. And then after that, what do you do?

31
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,040
Speaker 2: Because without soldiers on the ground, you'll have a mass

32
00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,239
Speaker 2: of armed men with Ak forty sevens and machine guns

33
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,480
Speaker 2: and tanks and so on in the Revolutionary Guards who

34
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,640
Speaker 2: can't strike beyond the border of Iran, except maybe with

35
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:24,440
Speaker 2: some relatively low technology drones like the Shahedrons. But then

36
00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:26,959
Speaker 2: what does the US? What does the United States and

37
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:32,240
Speaker 2: Israel do to force whoever is holding the guns out

38
00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,280
Speaker 2: or to do what the United States wants? So that's

39
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,280
Speaker 2: certainly harder than blowing up air defense systems.

40
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, so what do you think happens at that point?

41
00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:46,600
Speaker 2: The only sensible way forward or for what the United

42
00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:52,359
Speaker 2: States is doing at present to make sense, is that

43
00:02:52,919 --> 00:03:00,480
Speaker 2: you destroy the ability of Iran to exercise military power

44
00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:05,000
Speaker 2: really effectively beyond its border, and then you break the

45
00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:11,480
Speaker 2: crockery of the leadership so that some other regime leaders

46
00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:17,440
Speaker 2: can take power that could turn into strife among factions,

47
00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,600
Speaker 2: into a civil war, or one would hope, but this

48
00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,679
Speaker 2: is everyone can hope it doesn't add up to much,

49
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 2: and wait often that there is some plausible alternative power

50
00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 2: around which to rally in view or nascent, whether it's

51
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,880
Speaker 2: someone like former President Katani. And I don't want to

52
00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 2: curse the man, not that I'm a by mentioning his name,

53
00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,920
Speaker 2: not that I'm a defender of him at all, but

54
00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:53,000
Speaker 2: he has he was a moderate, certainly in the context

55
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 2: of Iranian politics the last forty years. Or you know, generally,

56
00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 2: when there's a revolutionary situation, some general and control of

57
00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:05,240
Speaker 2: some faction of armed forces, you can try to step forward.

58
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 2: Who knows, but that would seem to be the only

59
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:15,600
Speaker 2: likely evolution messys and unclear as that is.

60
00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,159
Speaker 1: Glinn, thank you for talking us through to appreciate your expertise.

61
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 1: Glenn Carle Pharmacy, IA intelligence officer for more from Hither

62
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive.

63
00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 2: Listen live to news talks.

64
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,159
Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

65
00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:29,280
Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio