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Speaker 1: Now it apparently takes an average of fifty days nowadays

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Speaker 1: to seller house in New Zealand, and prices are still

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Speaker 1: largely flat. Inflementary Infametrix principle economist Brad Olson's with me.

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Speaker 2: Now, hey, Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So what's the market actually doing? Is it volatile

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Speaker 1: or has it settled into a kind of a flat space?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, it's broadly pretty flat at the moment,

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Speaker 2: I think. I mean, there was a little bit of

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Speaker 2: evidence in the data that we got today from the

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Speaker 2: Real Estate Institute suggesting that maybe there've been a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a pop higher in prices in the month

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Speaker 2: of September, but to be fair, that would be the

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Speaker 2: first time we'd seen a monthly increase since April, so

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Speaker 2: nearly half a year. Realistically, that means you've had six

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Speaker 2: months of down and then one month of up, so

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Speaker 2: really you're not going anywhere fast on the price front.

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Speaker 2: I think the thing that gets me hither when we

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Speaker 2: look through the housing market at the moment, and this

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Speaker 2: is going to be the challenge for sellers particularly Not

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Speaker 2: only is it taking fifty days on a seasonally adjusted

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Speaker 2: basis to seller house, but there's about half a year's

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Speaker 2: worth of house sales currently sitting on the market unsolved,

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of choice out there. Good if

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Speaker 2: you're one of those limited number of buyers, but not

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Speaker 2: so good if you're trying to sell a house, because

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Speaker 2: you're competing with everyone else to sell it.

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Speaker 1: So I mean that obviously drives prices down, right, So

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Speaker 1: should we expect prices to continue to fall?

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Speaker 2: What we are seeing at the moment is that the

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Speaker 2: number of houses left on the market is high, but

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Speaker 2: ever so slightly starting to either decrease or sort of

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Speaker 2: track sideways. So I think we're likely to see house

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Speaker 2: prices be fairly subdued. And I say that because you

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Speaker 2: could see a few months of ups and a few

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Speaker 2: months of downs at different points. But realistically, I don't

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Speaker 2: think that you're going to see a whole art lot.

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Speaker 2: And that's sort of the big one. Because, yes, interest

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Speaker 2: rates are coming down, which of course should stimulate a

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Speaker 2: bit more buyer activity, But realistically, there's still a lot

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Speaker 2: of people out there who are trying to sell a house,

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Speaker 2: so for the moment, still more in the buyer's hands

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Speaker 2: than in the sellars.

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Speaker 1: Are you seeing that one month of price increases as

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Speaker 1: a bit of a shift.

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Speaker 2: Oh, it's a little bit too early to read into it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, is it coincidences at the start of something new.

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Speaker 2: One month's worth of data probably doesn't tell us. It

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Speaker 2: could be a little bit of it coming through. You've

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Speaker 2: definitely heard a lot of people who are talking with

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Speaker 2: a lot more optimism in the housing market. But I

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Speaker 2: think we'll want to wait and see. Regardless, I don't

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Speaker 2: think we're about to see, you know, the housing market

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Speaker 2: really perk up. It's likely to just be sort of

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Speaker 2: hovering for a little while.

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Speaker 1: Brad, what are you picking for the inflation number tomorrow?

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Speaker 2: I think we're at two point two two point three,

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Speaker 2: so sort of in that ballpark regardless. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: numbers are likely to look a lot better in a sense,

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Speaker 2: which is certainly encouraging. It's one of those things though

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Speaker 2: part of that has been driven by the likes of

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Speaker 2: petrol and similar so jury's out as to where we're

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Speaker 2: going from here. But realistically, I think we're in a

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Speaker 2: much better spot and that's encouraging news for the economy.

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Speaker 2: More interest rate reductions on the way, so better things

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Speaker 2: around the corner. Stuff.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't be more happy about it Brad, Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Brad Olsen, Principal economist it in for Metrics.

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