1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: More drama falls a party. Mardi Edu Kapakini. This is 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: the guy who led that big protest, big hikoy over 3 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: the treaty bill. He's cut ties with the party, saying 4 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: it's run like a dictatorship. Talks about it being ego driven. 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: Chris Sipkins of course not rolling out working with them 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: next year, but says they're a long way from government, 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: needs to sort their act out. Liam here as political 8 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: commentator with me this morning. 9 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,159 Speaker 2: Liam, good morning and good morning here. 10 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: Right, So is this good in some ways potentially good 11 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: for labor on the Maori seats, but also bad in 12 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:31,639 Speaker 1: terms of forming a government. 13 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 3: No, I think it's only bad. I don't think that 14 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 3: these type of internal ructions really weaken the minor parties 15 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,160 Speaker 3: in the way that they weaken major parties in terms 16 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 3: of how they go with the voters. You know, we've 17 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: seen in the past. You know, the Greens have had 18 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 3: a terrible couple of years, right, and the Greens have 19 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 3: had some internal ructions in the past. But because of 20 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 3: the dynamics of how the works of their voters and 21 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 3: how their voters they imagery motivated by different things. Is 22 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 3: it seem to go down in the polls or perform 23 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 3: any worse. As long as they basically hold together, they 24 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: can have quite a lot of internal discord and still 25 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 3: retain their voter base. So I think it's only bad 26 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 3: for Labor given that Labor. There hasn't been a single polls. 27 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 3: It's a general election showing Labor able to form a 28 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 3: government at TPM. And the fact of the matter is 29 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 3: that while TPM might not be materially damaged by this, 30 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 3: Labor will be because Labor will have the association and 31 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 3: its Labor voters will be repelled by its not TPM voters. 32 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: Which is why you're here to be saying this. 33 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: I think Party Marty have got some internal issues of 34 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: their own to work through. They look like they're quite 35 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: a long way away from being ready to play a 36 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: constructive role in any future government. Is that basically like 37 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: a kickoup the JACKSI they've still got time to turn 38 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: their party around and be a credible partner for them. 39 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 3: Well, it's not really within control. I don't think you know, 40 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 3: talking about being if he's ruling them out with not 41 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 3: if he's saying that they're a long way off of 42 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 3: being a constrictive party in government with him. But he's 43 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 3: essentially saying that he was to being government, right, So 44 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 3: like perhaps it's a it's probably the strongest sort of 45 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 3: statement that a labor leaders ever made about TVM in 46 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 3: recent years, which just goes to show how reliant they 47 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 3: are on TVM. It's pretty weak objectively, but ultimately if 48 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,399 Speaker 3: that's the strongest kind of distancing you're going to get, well, 49 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 3: you know, that's actually pretty weak. 50 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: What about the Marty seats themselves? Do you think we 51 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: could see support moving to because obviously the tide's been 52 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: turning against labor. Could we see as a result of 53 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: this break of the movement some more support for labor 54 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: in the Marty seats? 55 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 3: No, I don't think so, because all of this is 56 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 3: all of us is inside baseball, right. It's not the 57 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 3: type of thing that in those seats is going to 58 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 3: make the difference. You've still got all the energy on 59 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 3: the on the tpm's sort of side. And I think 60 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: the best analogy is to the Scottish National Party, which 61 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 3: has sort of wiped out labor in Scotland and which 62 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 3: hasn't really been flown down in that regard by its 63 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 3: own difficulties, internal breakdowns and arguments and factionalism, fun time, 64 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 3: de time. The more dominant thing is that actually TPM 65 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 3: is a more dynamic, more populist movement, and then the 66 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: Mouldi electorates, which are a low turnout lecturates. It's actually 67 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 3: that type of energy that matters a lot more. And 68 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 3: I think that the by election written by election is 69 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 3: really the sign of things to come right. 70 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 2: I appreciate that analysis. Thank you. Liam Here with us 71 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: political commentator. 72 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, Listen live 73 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: to news Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays, or 74 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.