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Speaker 1: From Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea.

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Speaker 2: A trans Tasman war of words is underway over how

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Speaker 2: long can we Defense staff took to tell Australia about

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Speaker 2: China's live firing exercise in the Tasman Sea last Friday.

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Speaker 1: To the Cook Islands cozying up to China.

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Speaker 3: The Cook Islands is set to strike a major partnership

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Speaker 3: agreement with China, causing deep concern.

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Speaker 1: Once distant pressures are quickly becoming very real in our

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Speaker 1: isolated neck of the woods.

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Speaker 4: Couple that with the Trump administration's warm relationship with former

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Speaker 4: faux Russia, it's pretty clear that a new world order

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Speaker 4: is forming, the rules of which could look very different

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Speaker 4: from the past.

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Speaker 1: This week, on the Business of Tech, powered by two

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Speaker 1: Degrees Business, one of the country's leading geopolitical analysts walks

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Speaker 1: us through what the heck is going on in the world.

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Speaker 4: Doctor Rubinsteff also gives his assessment of the Orcus Advanced

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Speaker 4: Security Pact and whether we should get involved with it,

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Speaker 4: the state of fied defense tech and what role we

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Speaker 4: might be expect did to play in a hot war

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Speaker 4: in the South China Sea if China invades Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if aliens come to your country, it'd say, hey,

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Speaker 3: do you want the best technologies that are ever being created?

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Speaker 3: Do you just say on that? Are we good? She'll

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Speaker 3: be right. No. If you're a mature country, when there's

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Speaker 3: a potentially strategically relevant development, BAMS, you should be able

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Speaker 3: to sit down, play out. The pros and coms have

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Speaker 3: some kind of natural conversational debate in their latent decision.

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Speaker 3: So I decided, Okay, I've got to step in here

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Speaker 3: and at least Steelman argent for us.

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Speaker 1: Joy. Yes, we're all in on the big issues this week.

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Speaker 4: And just to set the scene, another stunning piece of

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Speaker 4: news this week that has national security implication for many countries,

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Speaker 4: the Trump administration, according to widespread media reports, has decided

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Speaker 4: that Russia no longer poses a cyber security threat to

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Speaker 4: the US. It's suspended some of its cyber operations against Russia.

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Speaker 1: Ben that's what they tell us. So Pete haigsth former

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Speaker 1: TV presenter and now Secretary of Defense go figure is

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Speaker 1: a has called for a cease of offensive cybersecurity operations

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Speaker 1: against Russia. So nobody's quite sure exactly how far this extends,

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Speaker 1: but what we can say is it's a pretty big

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Speaker 1: signal that Pete Haigseth has said this to the people

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Speaker 1: that report to him, and I think just a further

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Speaker 1: indicator of the closer relationship that the Trump administration is

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Speaker 1: trying to form with Russia.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and that extends to discussions apparently about dialing back

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Speaker 4: to sanctions on Russia. Obviously it's sort of siding with

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Speaker 4: Russia encouraging Ukraine to come to the table except some

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Speaker 4: of the demands that Russia has to try and come

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Speaker 4: up with a peace deal in Ukraine. This is mind

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Speaker 4: bogging really, the implications of this. You know, Russia has

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Speaker 4: been a well acknowledged cyber threat to the US and

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Speaker 4: frankly most countries for a long time. It hosts ransomware gangs,

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Speaker 4: crypto money launderers, disinformation operations. So there's documented evidence of

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Speaker 4: it attempting to manipulate elections in other countries, including the US.

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Speaker 4: It has an elite group of government sanctioned hackers, as

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Speaker 4: do the Chinese, but the Russians are very adept at this.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Cold War produced a lot of gifted mathematicians,

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Speaker 4: cryptographers and the like, and that legacy has come down

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Speaker 4: that to one area where Russia is incredibly strong computer science,

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Speaker 4: mathematics and how to infiltrate people's networks. So you know,

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Speaker 4: this is stunning. Really. You know, there are offensive operations

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Speaker 4: going on to try and disrupt things like botnets and

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Speaker 4: efforts to put malware into critical infrastructure. And you know,

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Speaker 4: we saw the US cyber agencies warn us in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty three about Vault Typhoon that was a Chinese group

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Speaker 4: of hackers that were embedding malware in critical infrastructure providers

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Speaker 4: like utility companies, electricity, water, little sort of packags of

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Speaker 4: software that could be activated to take out those critical

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Speaker 4: infrastructure in the future. So the Russians are doing exactly

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Speaker 4: the same thing. They've taken out power plants in the

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Speaker 4: past in Europe. So you know, this is absolutely staggering

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Speaker 4: and has implications for US because we get so much

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Speaker 4: of our cybersecurity intel from the US.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, And you know they have said that they

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Speaker 1: are going to continue to defend that critical infrastructure from everyone,

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Speaker 1: including Russia, although how that intersects with a change in

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Speaker 1: approach we don't quite know yet. But the other thing

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Speaker 1: is that critical infrastructure may include the kinds of data

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Speaker 1: centers that house a lot of data. And you know,

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Speaker 1: when you start talking about telecommunications in the US, you

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Speaker 1: start to extend it out to beyond the US borders

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Speaker 1: when it comes to housing data, because if there is

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Speaker 1: a way to get data from a data center that's

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Speaker 1: offshore and bring it back to the parent company, you

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Speaker 1: know that that could potentially be exploited by an attacker.

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Speaker 1: So it is a huge and wide ranging thing, and

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Speaker 1: I'm really interested to hear some comment from the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration on it, because we don't really know yet. And

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Speaker 1: also we haven't had any comment coming out of our

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Speaker 1: defense agencies or Australia or anything on this situation. So

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Speaker 1: it seems to be going a little bit more under

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Speaker 1: the radar, possibly just because of the sheer torrent flood

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Speaker 1: of stuff that is happening at the moment.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but if you think about the implications, even if

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Speaker 4: it's a small pause or just a dialing back off

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Speaker 4: offensive capabilities, I mean, if you're a cyber criminal, a

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Speaker 4: Russian cyber criminal, you'd be like, going, now is our opportunity.

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Speaker 4: Let's go full bore on trying to penetrate networks, create

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Speaker 4: bot nets and the like, and every other cyber adversary

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Speaker 4: around the world is going to be thinking, like the

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Speaker 4: North Koreans and the Chinese hackers are going to be thinking,

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Speaker 4: let's disguise ourselves to look like the Russians because they're

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Speaker 4: leaving the Russians alone. Let's make our attacks have a

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Speaker 4: sort of a Russian signature, and they'll get the nod,

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Speaker 4: they'll be allowed to operate with impunity. So it's just

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Speaker 4: absolutely staggering. You know what the implications, even if it

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Speaker 4: was just for a temporary thing, you know, they will

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Speaker 4: exploit it to the nth degree.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, And you know, I think more important as well

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Speaker 1: as what it rapres sense, which is the compromise that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is making. And you mentioned the disinformation campaign

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Speaker 1: as well, and you know, there's been a lot of

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Speaker 1: chatter around the fact that it was those disinformation campaigns

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Speaker 1: that has brought Trump closer to Putin back in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: when everyone was saying, well, you know, Putin was putting

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Speaker 1: out these campaigns and that's the part of the reason

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Speaker 1: that Trump won. And Trump took that personally. And of course,

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Speaker 1: if Puton comes in and strukes his ego and says, no,

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Speaker 1: we haven't done anything, you know, you you're just a big,

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Speaker 1: powerful man like I am. Then that's gonna really kind

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Speaker 1: of help to grease the wheels of that relationship. And

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Speaker 1: so yeah, I think that is all wrapped up together

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Speaker 1: in this situation where Trump's saying, look, he's he's not

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Speaker 1: a threat. Look, you know, all of the stuff about

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Speaker 1: this disinformation, it's all just lies, has been proven by

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Speaker 1: the fact that they try to use it against me

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Speaker 1: and my campaign and back in twenty sixteen. And so yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's just so much complicated ego and years and years

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Speaker 1: of tension that is ramping up into these moments, which

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Speaker 1: is clearly demonstrated in this decision to say we are

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Speaker 1: no longer going to proactively fight against Russia.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, I've watched a lot of commentators

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Speaker 4: in the last few weeks sort of going, you know,

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Speaker 4: what is really at the heart of this? You know,

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Speaker 4: is Trump a Russian asset from decades back that do

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Speaker 4: they have something on him? Or is it just that

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Speaker 4: fascination with the strong man that he actually really admires

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Speaker 4: cutin or does he just want to be seen as

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Speaker 4: the guy who brought peace to the Ukraine by hammering

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Speaker 4: out an agreement and to do that he knows he

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Speaker 4: has to keep putin happy. Bottom line, bottom line, whatever

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Speaker 4: it is. These sorts of moves are just eroding the

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Speaker 4: likes of NATO, the Five Eyes, our cybersecurity relationship between

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Speaker 4: those Five Eyes countries. And that's bad for US because

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Speaker 4: we don't have a lot of capability. We've run down.

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Speaker 4: We never really even invested in cybersecurity to any great degree.

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Speaker 4: The Australians did, so we're really reliant on getting those memos,

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Speaker 4: getting that intel from the US, in particular saying we've

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Speaker 4: identified these sorts of attacks on our networks, you need

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Speaker 4: to do something about it. You know, hopefully that will

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Speaker 4: continue the sharing of that information, but in terms of

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Speaker 4: the actual proactive measures to try and address those threats,

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Speaker 4: when it comes to Russia, it may not be that

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Speaker 4: they go after them.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yes, It's going to be a very interesting set situation

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Speaker 1: in the future to see what happens in the world

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Speaker 1: of cybersecurity as a result of this, And I'm really

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Speaker 1: looking forward to seeing what some of these what some

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Speaker 1: of the allies say about it as well. And cybersecurity

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Speaker 1: is certainly an area of priority for the US. In

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Speaker 1: the Orcus Trilateral partnership between Australia the United Kingdom and

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Speaker 1: the United States, which is intended to promote a free

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Speaker 1: and open endo Pacific.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, ORCUS has been running for a few years now.

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Speaker 4: Part of it is about nuclear submarines, which we understandably

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Speaker 4: don't want to bar off. But Pillar two I ORCUS

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Speaker 4: sounds kind of cool. It's all the advanced tech that

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Speaker 4: is going to come into play in the future of

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Speaker 4: defense and warfare. Think artificial intelligence, drone swarms, quantum technologies,

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Speaker 4: even hypersonic missiles.

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Speaker 1: Dr Rubin's Steph is a geopolitical and international relations analyst

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Speaker 1: and senior lecturer at the University of Waikotto who has

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Speaker 1: been writing quite widely about all of this.

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Speaker 4: He has a new book out New Zealand's Geopolitics and

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Speaker 4: the US China Competition, which delves into all of this

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Speaker 4: in detail and season make the case for joining ORCUS,

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Speaker 4: but also outline the alternative, which really amounts to us

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Speaker 4: taking a position of armed neutrality or independence. Is that

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Speaker 4: even realistic? Or is Helen Clark's vision of US using

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Speaker 4: soft power to navigate our way in the world, staying

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Speaker 4: friends with everyone increasingly looking like a pipe dream.

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Speaker 1: Well, here's your interview with Doctor Rubin Staff better to

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Speaker 1: find out his take.

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Speaker 4: Ruben Stapf, Welcome to the Business of Tech. Great to

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Speaker 4: have you on.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Peter, great to be here.

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Speaker 4: You wrote in your post column a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: really nice quote from Vladimir Lenin. There are decades where

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Speaker 4: nothing has and there are weeks where decades happen. I

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Speaker 4: think it could be more apt what we've seen in

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Speaker 4: the last couple of weeks between what's gone on with

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Speaker 4: the Cook Islands, relationship with New Zealand, the Chinese warships

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Speaker 4: in the Tasman. I've never seen that in my lifetime

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Speaker 4: growing up in New Zealand. The just remarkable episode in

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Speaker 4: the White House with President Zelenski basically been thrown under

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Speaker 4: the bus by Jade Vance and President Trump. It's accelerating,

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Speaker 4: isn't it. At the moment, We've had probably twenty or

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Speaker 4: thirty years at least since the fracturing off ANDAs and

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Speaker 4: in the eighties we've had relative stability as our military

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Speaker 4: has sort of been degraded really through lack of investment.

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Speaker 4: Now all of that is on the table and we're

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Speaker 4: looking very exposed. Paint a picture for us, Reuben, to

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Speaker 4: begin with, fleshing out that column that you wrote in

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Speaker 4: the Post last week about the strategic picture that's unfolding

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Speaker 4: in Eurasia, the Pacific island chains as they are known

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Speaker 4: in strategy terms, and how this is implicating us in

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Speaker 4: this sort of huge US China power dynamic that's going on.

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Speaker 3: Sure, look, it's an incredibly discombobulating time to be alive.

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Speaker 3: Every day at the moment you wake up and you

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Speaker 3: just wonder, geez, what the hell is going on? And

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Speaker 3: where should I focus my attention? Because we're just overwhelmed

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Speaker 3: by an assault of the sensus these days, I think

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Speaker 3: at the grand strategic level, which I think we in

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Speaker 3: New Zealand need to get better at thinking about what

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Speaker 3: we're essentially seeing. And this draws us to the Russia

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Speaker 3: Ukraine conflict, to all the drama we're seeing as it

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Speaker 3: relates to the diplomacy going on in that theater Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: and this is part of a continuum over years now

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Speaker 3: in US grand strategy. But they are attempting to shift

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Speaker 3: more attention to the Indo Pacific because that's where the

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Speaker 3: key challenger for the twenty first century is that being

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Speaker 3: China Russia is a major concern for a range of reasons.

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Speaker 3: The size of its economy is only about that of Italy,

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Speaker 3: but you can cause a lot of destruction and disrupt

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Speaker 3: a lot of things, it turns out, even with a

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Speaker 3: relatively small economy. Russia is essentially allied with China right now,

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Speaker 3: which is a terrible, terrible geostrategic mix for the United

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Speaker 3: States and its allies to be confronting when Eurasia is

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Speaker 3: kind of within the grasp, if you will, of these

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Speaker 3: revisionist powers China, Russia, Iran and so on. Trump is

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Speaker 3: trying to de escalate the war in Ukraine to turn

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Speaker 3: attention towards the Pacific. China is watching what's happening between

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Speaker 3: Putin and Trump, and the are quite concerned about where

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Speaker 3: that might all go. It's not that Russia tomorrow is

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Speaker 3: going to sort of dump China and switch towards the

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Speaker 3: Europeans and Americans. That might be more of a long

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Speaker 3: term development if it ever happens. But China wants to,

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Speaker 3: I think, flex its muscles in the Pacific right now.

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Speaker 3: It wants to to show the Americans and Australia, New Zealand, etc.

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Speaker 3: That they have leverage and that could very well account

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Speaker 3: for things we've seen recently in Curebas of course the

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Speaker 3: Cook Islands, but also in the Tasman Sea with this

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Speaker 3: Chinese flotilla that has some considerable, considerable firepower, and they

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Speaker 3: decided to position itself underneath where many commercial airliners go

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Speaker 3: back and forth between New Zealand and a straight So

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Speaker 3: an intentional move to show us to the Australians, but

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Speaker 3: I suspect more than us, it's to signal the Americans, Hey,

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Speaker 3: we have options in this great Pacific competition. That's that's

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Speaker 3: underway now. Now just to paint a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a picture quickly for our listeners. New Zealand is part

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Speaker 3: of what's called the Third Island Chain. They can go

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Speaker 3: on Google Images and put into three Pacific island chains.

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Speaker 3: The first Pacific Island chain goes from Japan down around

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Speaker 3: Taiwan and the South China set okay, so Taiwan's South

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Speaker 3: China see are within the Chinese kind of sphere, if

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Speaker 3: you will, in the first island chain. The second island

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Speaker 3: chain goes from Japan to Guam, which is a US

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Speaker 3: essentially military territory and base, and then goes down to Indonesia.

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Speaker 3: The third island chain goes all the way out to Hawaii,

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Speaker 3: then runs north south down to the South Pacific Islands

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Speaker 3: and then to New Zealand. So we are deep south

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Speaker 3: of this third island chain. And these island chains are

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Speaker 3: used by strategists to understand the geopolitical competition and machination

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Speaker 3: in the region, especially between well the Americans on one

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Speaker 3: side and the Chinese on the other. And then the

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Speaker 3: Pacific is right in the middle of these three island chains.

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Speaker 3: And what we see in recent year is the Americans

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Speaker 3: deepening and locking down their influence in Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Australia.

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Speaker 3: So they're trying across these archipelagic lines of kind of

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Speaker 3: defense view will to lock down their position to make

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Speaker 3: it more difficult for China to project power outwards throughout

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Speaker 3: the Pacific. But coming to the third island chain, okay,

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Speaker 3: this is kind of potentially a week undervalley for those

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Speaker 3: first two island chains. And if you're China and you're

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Speaker 3: struggling to make inroads in the first and second island

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Speaker 3: chain where US allies are, well, there's a whole bunch

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Speaker 3: of our relatively you might say, weak countries in the

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Speaker 3: South Pacific where you can look to expand your influence,

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Speaker 3: your trade, your infrastructure developments, which they've been doing to

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Speaker 3: try and look for military positions, access agreements to try

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Speaker 3: and access subsea resources in the future, hence the Cook Islands.

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Speaker 3: And once that happens for New Zealand, that starts to

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Speaker 3: really activate a response by us, because the South Pacific

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Speaker 3: is our area of existential importance. Things happen in the

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Speaker 3: mid least, things happen in Eastern Europe, that's concerned to

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Speaker 3: New Zealand. But when things start to happen in our

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Speaker 3: actual immediate region, when we see the balance of power

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Speaker 3: and influence start to change, that's when the New Zealand government,

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Speaker 3: as we've seen for many years now, starts to get

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Speaker 3: very concerned. So that's the state of play that New

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Speaker 3: Zealand is now geostrategically implicated in this much larger game

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Speaker 3: playing out. And we just have not had this feeling

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Speaker 3: that this reality for decades and decades now, so we

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Speaker 3: are psychologically not prepared for it, I think. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: you see that now the defense was being run down

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Speaker 3: in the.

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Speaker 4: Glib I mean there is the as you write in

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Speaker 4: the book, you know that the memories of World War

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Speaker 4: Two where this island chain very much was potentially going

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Speaker 4: to come into play.

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Speaker 5: Thankfully it didn't to any great degree.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I've read a lot of military strategists

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Speaker 4: and that over in recent years sort of saying well,

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Speaker 4: China doesn't really have a blue water fleet, but what

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Speaker 4: it's showing I think this is probably the furthest it's

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Speaker 4: traveled in recent years, thousands of kilometers away, and sure

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Speaker 4: they're doing one big round trip, but I mean it

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Speaker 4: would just be unimaginable. I think if China was able

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Speaker 4: to secure a base somewhere in this third island chain

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Speaker 4: by doing a deal with one of our neighbors, I

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Speaker 4: guess that's the worst case scenario.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that is a worst case scenario. And the New

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Speaker 3: Zealand government, Australian government had been warning about this for years.

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Speaker 3: In fact, Kurt Campbell, who's an American, he was President

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Speaker 3: Biden sort of chief Indo Pacific diplomat, if you will,

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Speaker 3: he said in his final interview to the Australian newspaper.

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Speaker 3: So this was late last year. He said, China is

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Speaker 3: looking for military bases in the South Pacific. Now, prior

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Speaker 3: to that, we'd only had we'd had some allusions to this,

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Speaker 3: but that was the first time an official came out

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Speaker 3: and said explicitly that's what they're looking for. Prior to that,

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Speaker 3: it was statements like, oh, it would be extremely concerning

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Speaker 3: to the New Zealand and US governments if a country

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Speaker 3: with different values and interest was to establish a military

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Speaker 3: base in the region. That it now looks like officials

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Speaker 3: are being much more front foot and saying that's what

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Speaker 3: they're looking for, and the nature of how this might

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Speaker 3: play out. It's not obvious in a way, but in

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Speaker 3: the Solomon Islands is a real case in point where

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Speaker 3: China now has a logistics kind of naval access agreement

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Speaker 3: to ports in the Solomon Islands. They can come in

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Speaker 3: at the invitation of the Solomon Islands government. But the

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Speaker 3: text of that agreement very much mimics the text of

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Speaker 3: an agreement with Djibouti on the Eastern Horn of Africa

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Speaker 3: that inevitabent that did lead to China getting essentially a

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Speaker 3: permanent naval position there. So we have a kind of

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Speaker 3: a mimicry of strategy. You can look at how China

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Speaker 3: has approached other parts of the world and what has

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Speaker 3: preceded them getting a military base and it's trade, its infrastructure,

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Speaker 3: it's ad then it's these logistics agreements, and then it

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Speaker 3: leads into a military position. So you take what we're

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Speaker 3: seeing elsewhere and you look at the evidence that we

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Speaker 3: have for the South Pacific with some of these countries,

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Speaker 3: and it looks almost identical. So that's why people are

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Speaker 3: concerned that this is a distinct possibility in the is

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Speaker 3: to come.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and the government is clearly concerned about this, and

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Speaker 4: we've had both Judith Collins, Defense Minister, and Christopher lux

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Speaker 4: and the Prime Minister saying that there will be significant

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Speaker 4: funding for defense in this year's budget. So we are

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Speaker 4: belatedly about to scale up. And you know, I know

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Speaker 4: people in defense who you know, just shake their head

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Speaker 4: at what they have to deal with every day. Trying

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Speaker 4: to muster enough crew for ships and the like alone

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Speaker 4: is a real challenge. The talent issue, let alone the

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Speaker 4: hardware issue is real for New Zealand. So we have

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Speaker 4: some decisions to make and the government looks like it's

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Speaker 4: going in that direction. One of the decisions we maybe

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Speaker 4: will have to make in the next couple of years,

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Speaker 4: and it's been contentious already, is if we're given the

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Speaker 4: opportunity whether we join this relationship, the Orcust relationship. Three

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Speaker 4: players in there at the moment, America, the UK, and Australia,

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Speaker 4: and the door is potentially open for us to join.

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Speaker 4: Rubin talk us through, just so you refresh our minds

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Speaker 4: about what Orcus is. It's got two pillars, one about submarines,

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Speaker 4: the other about advanced technology. Give us the overview.

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Speaker 3: Yes, sure so. August Pillar one is to facilitate the

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Speaker 3: train of nuclear powered submarines from the UK and United

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Speaker 3: States to Australia, which is a massive undertaking. And this

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Speaker 3: is some of the most sophisticated, state of the art

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Speaker 3: technology on the planet, these nuclear powered submarines that's going

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Speaker 3: to play out over decades. There will be issues with that,

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Speaker 3: some of the timelines have already been pushed out, but nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: let's set that aside. It's August Pillar two that's relevant

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Speaker 3: to New Zealand. So this is an agreement between the US, UK,

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Speaker 3: Australia to collaborate and share the most advanced emerging technologies,

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Speaker 3: so artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber undersea hypersonics, information sharing,

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Speaker 3: electronic warfare, and maybe future technologies that haven't even been

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Speaker 3: conceived of yet. In March twenty twenty three, Kirk Campbell

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Speaker 3: came to Auckland and essentially offered New Zealand the potential

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Speaker 3: to join August in the future when we were comfortable

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Speaker 3: with it. He said. The response to this was overwhelmingly

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Speaker 3: negative in the New Zealand media, and I thought this

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Speaker 3: was quite odd because I mean, if aliens come to

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Speaker 3: your country and say, hey, do you want the best

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Speaker 3: technologies that have ever been created? Do you just say, oh, nah,

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Speaker 3: now we're good. She'll be right. No, if you're a

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Speaker 3: mature country when there's a potentially strategically relevant development like this,

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Speaker 3: you should be able to sit down, play out the

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Speaker 3: pros and columns, have some kind of national conversational debate

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Speaker 3: and then make a decision. So I decided, okay, I'd

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Speaker 3: be to step in here and at least steel Mann

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Speaker 3: the argument for us joining. And of course this is

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Speaker 3: against the context of a deteriorating strategic environment for New Zealand. Okay,

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Speaker 3: so there during good times be nine times ah, maybe

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Speaker 3: we don't join, but things have changed and maybe it

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Speaker 3: takes on added importance right now that we consider it.

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Speaker 3: So why is August potentially significant to New Zealand? Why

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Speaker 3: might we want to join. Well, in future conflicts, there

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Speaker 3: may very well be very little competition between militaries that

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Speaker 3: have integrated the most advanced technologies and those that happened.

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Speaker 3: It could be the difference between you know and UB one.

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Speaker 3: A country was writing cavalry into battle against tacts. You

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Speaker 3: know that actually happened in some cases because you had

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Speaker 3: technology changing so quickly, and some countries were able to

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Speaker 3: adapt and adopt the new tech technology quickly and other

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Speaker 3: countries were stuck in the past. We also know technology

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Speaker 3: is evolving in an exponential rate. We are not going

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Speaker 3: to be able to create these technologies on our own. Okay,

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Speaker 3: we might be able to plug in. We have some

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Speaker 3: promising tech and software companies that will be able to

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Speaker 3: contribute to some of the technology stacks NORKS Pillar two,

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Speaker 3: but we cannot create these technologies from scratch in New Zealand.

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Speaker 3: I also imagine that the technology, information sharing protocols, and

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Speaker 3: communication channels that intelligence agencies use will be updated based

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Speaker 3: upon ORCHEST Pillar two technology. So for us to remain

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Speaker 3: part of the Five Eyes, for our military to remain

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Speaker 3: interoperable with like minded militaries, we may have to join

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Speaker 3: ORCHEST Pilar two. Secondly, these technologies are going to be

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Speaker 3: critical to really every spe of human activity in the

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Speaker 3: years to come, to our economy, to product productivity. We're

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Speaker 3: the big productivity problem to industry rich large to the

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Speaker 3: nature of work, to education, and as I said before,

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Speaker 3: of course also to military affairs. But you know our

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Speaker 3: tech startups, our software startups, which is a it's a

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Speaker 3: promising part of our economy and it has grown quite quickly.

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Speaker 3: Are they going to be able to survive and thrive

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Speaker 3: without inward investment, with capital with expertise from abroad. I'm skeptical.

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Speaker 3: I mean, some of them may be able to get

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Speaker 3: a foothold in. But we want these companies to go

433
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 3: global if we can, and we want them to retain

434
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 3: some of their operations in New Zealand instead of just

435
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: abandoning US and going off to Australia or Europe or

436
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 3: the United States, which they may very well do, unless

437
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 3: we can get into something like orchest Pillar two and

438
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 3: benefit from all the joint research and development and capital

439
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 3: potentially tens of billions of dollars of capital that will

440
00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 3: be flowing around the orchest Pillar two and technology exchanges.

441
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 3: In some of my research I have listed a whole

442
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 3: bunch of companies we have that are working in all

443
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 3: sorts of really promising technological areas. We have expertise in rocketry,

444
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 3: wireless power transmission, underwater sensors, drones, hydrophones, data storage, software,

445
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 3: artificial intelligence, virtual reality, infusion energy. We have universities doing

446
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 3: all sorts of interesting research on emerging technologies. So we

447
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 3: already I think, have a suite of companies, thinkers, innovators

448
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: that can kind of plug into potentially Orchest Pilar two,

449
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 3: enjoining the kind of big collaborative network that is being

450
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 3: established there. Another reason I think worchst Pilar two is

451
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: in our interests is because we are seeing the bifurcation

452
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 3: of the global technology system. You have when it comes

453
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 3: to semiconductors, five gtailcommunications, and no doubt other areas of

454
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: advanced technology. The US and China are essentially decoupling from

455
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: one another, and I suspect as they decouple well, as

456
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 3: we've actually seen already, they are pulling countries into their

457
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: technological ecosystems when it comes to the most advanced technologies,

458
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: and I think that's only going to deepen. I think

459
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: more and more areas of technology will be labeled as

460
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 3: of national security importance, and therefore if you want that technology,

461
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 3: you have to either be in the kind of American

462
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 3: tech sphere or the Chinese tech sphere. I think it

463
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: will create technological path dependency in which Beijing or Washington

464
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 3: they will be able to impede and or offer critical technologies,

465
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 3: data and upgrades of those technologies to the countries that

466
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 3: in their spheres of influence. So as we go further

467
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 3: down one path, and right now it is into I

468
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 3: think the kind of Western technological ecosystem. It's not the

469
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: five years from now we'll just be able to go, okay,

470
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 3: let's jump ship and join the other technological ecosystem. We

471
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 3: will be kind of locked right now. Some people will

472
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 3: limit this, they say, oh, this is an affront to

473
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: our sovereignty and so on. I'm a realist. Okay, we

474
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 3: just have to deal with the world as it is.

475
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: We can't. We can't just in the abstract imagine a

476
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 3: better world is going to emerge tomorrow. Okay, we have

477
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: to deal with the cards that are being played to us.

478
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 3: And that's the way it is. Essentially. We should try

479
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 3: and you know, have as much independence as we can

480
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 3: and have our own sovereign capabilities. We absolutely should, but

481
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 3: that's going to require investment, it's going to require thinking,

482
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 3: it's going to require require creativity. So we should try

483
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 3: and do that. But we just have to realize right

484
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: now we we kind of take the hands being played

485
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 3: to us, and we are not able to fully set

486
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 3: the scene for others. They are kind of setting the

487
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: strategy for us in many instances, and partly that's just

488
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 3: the reality of being a small country. So a quick

489
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: fifth thing and then I'll hand it back to you.

490
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: I know I've been going on a bit, but you know,

491
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 3: there is this accusation that August increases the chance of

492
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 3: conflict in our region. Now this is a very difficult

493
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: one to truly make an assessment of, but clearly there

494
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: is a kind of arms race and geostrategic competition playing out,

495
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: and Orcus is one component of that. I would just

496
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 3: say though, that it is really essentially China that has

497
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 3: catalyzed many of these moves. They had engaged a massive

498
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 3: military build up over the last twenty years and that

499
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 3: has frightened much of the region. That's why Japan is

500
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 3: doubling its defense spending. That's why the Philippines have deepened

501
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: their alliance with the Americans. That's why Orcus came into being.

502
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: And as a country's military power grows relative to others,

503
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: so does their influence and ambitions. And so what if

504
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: we see we see around twenty fifteen twenty sixteen, China

505
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: essentially try and start to annex the South China. See

506
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: we see them engage in will warror diplomacy at times,

507
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 3: We've seen them bully countries, get into trade spats, already

508
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 3: place trade sanctions on South Korea, Australia, other nations. And

509
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 3: unless there is a geostrategic military rebalancing by America, by Australia,

510
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: by Japan, by New Zealand, we can imagine China is

511
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 3: only going to become more and more emboldened. And the

512
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 3: prospects that they will actually use military power at some

513
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 3: point also grows as they become more confident that they

514
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 3: could achieve their ends, whether it's around Taiwana or South China,

515
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 3: see by using military power and emerging victorious. So something

516
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,479
Speaker 3: like Orcus, which is going to see Australia and other

517
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 3: countries have the state of the art and military technologies

518
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: that deepens the alliances in the region things like this. Actually,

519
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 3: China actually has to take into account that this is

520
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 3: increasing the military position of other countries and that may

521
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: be effort and likely does enhance deterrence in the region.

522
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 4: There is an argument in relation to ORCUS that we

523
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 4: could buy this technology off the shelf, but I think

524
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 4: what we've seen with the US is hardening towards its

525
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 4: own allies and its attitude. And we can talk a

526
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 4: little bit five eyes as well, but those countries that

527
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 4: are very much in that pact with the Americans are

528
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,239
Speaker 4: going to get that technology first. We'll be lucky if

529
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 4: we get it down the track. And in terms of

530
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 4: I think you make a very compelling case in the book,

531
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 4: the case for ORCUS, the interoperability and the opportunities to

532
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 4: our tech companies. We've already have Rocket Lab that has

533
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 4: done very well by working with the US military on

534
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 4: national security satellite launchers, hypersonic testing, that sort of stuff

535
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 4: with its electron rocket. There are other sort of pockets

536
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 4: of capability that we have and this could actually lead

537
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 4: to real money flowing to those companies we've seen already

538
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 4: as part of the ORCUS, they call it the Innovation Challenge.

539
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 4: A handful of Australian companies. It was announced a couple

540
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 4: of weeks ago eight million dollars to develop electronic warfare technology.

541
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 4: So it's early days, but money is already flowing from

542
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: ORCUS to those companies. What do we know about the

543
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: sort of There's been some public coverage off some of

544
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 4: the things that they're doing as part of ORCUST. There's

545
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 4: coordinated drone flights and testing that's been done in the UK.

546
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 4: What else do we know about what's actually going on

547
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 4: in August?

548
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 3: Yes, so this is an area that I need to

549
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 3: look more into. But as you mentioned, there are already

550
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 3: some orchest pulito activities underway. Like you say, there has

551
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: been tests when it comes to collaborative drone swarms. There's

552
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 3: also progress being made on quantum technologies between the Orchestra

553
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 3: Pular two countries by the end of twenty twenty four.

554
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 3: So at the end of last year, lot what I

555
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 3: heard is that the US, Australia, UK would be testing

556
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 3: out trilateral algorithms when it pertains to the P eight

557
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: maritrime aircraft. Now, if you don't know, New Zealand also

558
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: has pights. These are basically militarized seven three sevens that

559
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 3: contain real sophisticated advanced sensors for sub seed detection and

560
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 3: surface seed detection. They can also attack submarines and so on.

561
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 3: But the Pillar two nations are being conducting trilateral algorithm tests.

562
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 3: Now I'm not like a tech guy, so I don't

563
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: know exactly what that is. But nonetheless, it's to say

564
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 3: they are already collaborating on sophisticated technologies, and those are

565
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: only the ones I know about. There may very well

566
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 3: be a whole suite of technologies that they are kind

567
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: of convert covertly engaging on. So that is something that

568
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: I think we need to do a bit more investigation of,

569
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,239
Speaker 3: and I suspect that's going on behind the scenes. There

570
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 3: will be conversations going on between New Zealand and the

571
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: Orcist countries about Okay, what exactly is this Pillar two,

572
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 3: how exactly would we contribute to it, how would we benefit?

573
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: What would be you know, potentially the cost of New Zealand.

574
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 3: There is this idea out there that you know, you

575
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 3: probably have to pay your way into aucast Pilar two. Now,

576
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 3: whether that means actually we have to hand over one

577
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: hundred million dollars out outright I'm not sure, but it

578
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 3: will be. You have to show some capability, technological capability,

579
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: some human capital, things like this that we can contribute

580
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 3: to the pillar to arrangements. That that's something when you

581
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 3: know a lot more about Peter, because I personally don't.

582
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, it makes sense that we need to invest in

583
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 4: this relationship. It's nothing compared to the money involved in

584
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 4: Pillar one. The Australian government has committed to paying the

585
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 4: United States three billion dollars to enhance submarine capacity. Then

586
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: you have the Virginia class nuclear powered subs that are

587
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 4: going to be delivered. That's hundreds of billions of dollars.

588
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 4: So that's led some to suggest that may even not

589
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 4: happen because it's just so expensive. Incidentally, on that Reuben

590
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 4: say that happens and they do get shiny new nuclear

591
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 4: subs in the early twenty thirties, What does that mean

592
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 4: for us? So we're going to welcome those subs into

593
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 4: our waters and our ports.

594
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, this is a big question. There's a few

595
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 3: big questions. New Zealand is going to have to consider

596
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 3: it in the coming years and decades. There's some shibboliths

597
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: that we're going to have to at least test to

598
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 3: see if they still fit the purpose. But one is

599
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 3: the whole anti nuclear policy and legislation that we have

600
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 3: that many New Zealanders feel as part of their national identity.

601
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I'll put it this way. Let's say

602
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 3: fifteen years from now that the Australians have acquired nuclear

603
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 3: powered submarines and there is a major crisis or threat

604
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 3: to New Zealand, and the Australians say, hey, look, the

605
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 3: fastest most advanced capability we have are nuclear powered submarines.

606
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 3: Are we just going to say, oh nah, sorry, you

607
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,240
Speaker 3: can't seen them into our territory. So this is where

608
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 3: the rubber will meet the road eventually, and maybe there'll

609
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 3: be carveouts to our legislation or something like that. Maybe

610
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 3: we'll have to find a way around it. But there

611
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: could also be a generational turnover. I can tell you

612
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 3: many of my younger students they are just not as

613
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 3: tightly bound to the anti nuclear philosophy and policy of

614
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: New Zealand. There very concerned about things like climate change

615
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 3: and they see nuclear powers or nuclear power or small

616
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 3: nuclear reactors is a potential answer in part to that crisis.

617
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 3: It's also that eventually commercial ships, trading ships, maybe nuclear

618
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: power too. There's all sorts of things that nuclear could

619
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 3: facilitate in the years to come. So that's an open question,

620
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: and at some point someone should do an article looking

621
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 3: at the Yeah, just putting this out there.

622
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, So UCAS seems like the rational and logical thing

623
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 4: to do from a strategic point of view. We're not

624
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 4: going to militarily align ourselves with China. That's just unthinkable

625
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 4: to our traditional allies. But you do in the book

626
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 4: outline a different scenario, which you sort of call armed independence,

627
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: which essentially I guess is be the Switzerland of the

628
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 4: South Pacific. And there was some debate on LinkedIn a

629
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 4: friend of mine of futurists, Ben Reid, we've had on

630
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 4: the podcast a few times, was I guess arguing with

631
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 4: your colleague from Waykatta University, Brian Cole about this. Ben

632
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 4: Reed suggests increasing conventional defense spending for tiny nation like

633
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 4: hours just takes money out of our pockets and into

634
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 4: the pockets off overseas. Likely US arms manufacturers wouldn't change

635
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 4: the outcome of a military invasion by any large superpower.

636
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 4: It might take thirty minutes rather than fifteen to invade

637
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 4: New Zealand. So Ben says, better to spend the money

638
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 4: on social and economic resilience, technological and supply chain independence,

639
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 4: and a focused diplomatic effort on making tayor more more

640
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 4: valuable to all sides as an independent nation. So I

641
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 4: guess that and you do cover that scenario in your book.

642
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 4: A big, big ask for a small nation like New

643
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 4: Zealand to pull that off.

644
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a check to on this. I think

645
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 3: I call armed independence, well armed, neutral and comprehensive national resilience.

646
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: Where this is an idea that does get out. There

647
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,919
Speaker 3: are times and as you say, our mutual friend Ben

648
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 3: is sometimes involving these debates. Good on them. It's a

649
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 3: nice idea, it's very idealistic. It would actually take, though,

650
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 3: I think, a whole of government, to some degree, whole

651
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 3: of nation effort to create it. We would have to massively,

652
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 3: massively invest in this kind of program because even at

653
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 3: the best of times, New Zealand should have greater strategic

654
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 3: resilience because they probably are going to be more global

655
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 3: crises to come. They're maybe black Swan events. We could

656
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 3: be cut off on any given day from the world

657
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 3: potentially for a range of reasons. We have those subsea

658
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 3: cables that could be cut. Subse cables have been cut

659
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 3: around Taiwan in recent weeks, that have been cut up

660
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: in the Baltics in recent weeks. So there's all these

661
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 3: potential vulnerabilities we face, and then our resilience to maintain

662
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 3: our way of life for very long if we cut

663
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 3: off it's not so. I think some kind of program

664
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 3: that thinks through, Okay, what key inputs do we need,

665
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 3: What food stuffs do we need, oil and gas, stockpiling,

666
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 3: what basic other critical goods do we need to keep

667
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 3: the lights on to keep our cars going? You know?

668
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: How do we stop literally like a stockpile, Like a

669
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 3: survivalist has a stockpile under their house for a doomsday.

670
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 3: I think New Zealand should start thinking through investing in

671
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 3: our own kind of stockpile, and not to be fatalistic,

672
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 3: but just to be prepared, just to say, oh, we

673
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 3: could hold on for a few months on our own

674
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: if things go really bad. So that's that's the kind

675
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 3: of national resilience part of it. The armed and independence

676
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 3: part of it sounds really good, but how do we

677
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 3: get from where we are now to then we are

678
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 3: going to have to purchase software technology, certain military equipment

679
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: and inputs from abroad, and who's going to sell the

680
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 3: stuff to us if we're getting it, so that we

681
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 3: can turn inwards and create a kind of porcupine, if

682
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 3: you will, of defense of strategy. Not to say it

683
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:05,879
Speaker 3: can't be done. We do have some manufacturing capabilities here.

684
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 3: We have some really good drone companies here. We could

685
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 3: invest in them, We could try accelerate them and then

686
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 3: then create a kind of defensive position for ourselves down

687
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: here in the South Pacific and at least our kind

688
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 3: of realm, or our immediate territory at least. But again,

689
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 3: it's going to require investment, it's going to require a

690
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 3: massive change of thinking. And I think there's nothing wrong

691
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 3: with people putting the strategy out there saying, hey, here's

692
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,720
Speaker 3: how we get from A to B to Z. Here's

693
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 3: the cost, here's the first step we do, here's the

694
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: second step. Like why not have that out there? I

695
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 3: suspect we will not go on that direction, but we're

696
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 3: the value of considering these things is is that they

697
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 3: we could try do some of it even as we

698
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 3: retain our current settings, which is essentially Alliance of Australia

699
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: to factor alliance with the Americans and other kind of

700
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,919
Speaker 3: Western countries and some Asian countries. We could retain our

701
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 3: sort of continue our current trajectory, but also say, okay,

702
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 3: but national resilience, let's put some money into that. Some

703
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 3: independent sovereign defensive capabilities, let's put some money into that too,

704
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 3: And that could give us options in the future if

705
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 3: things significantly change and we feel they need to drastically

706
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 3: change strategy. So I would suggest pursuing a bit of

707
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,439
Speaker 3: all these things at once. But it comes down to money.

708
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 3: Where's the money going to come from, Peter. As you know,

709
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 3: we have a cost of living crisis, healthcare, infrastructure, schooling,

710
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 3: We have all these things we need to pay for,

711
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 3: and then we also want to find money to carve

712
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 3: out to take care of our sort of sovereign and

713
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 3: strategic responsibility. So it's a tough ask, even though I

714
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 3: think it's worth considering.

715
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, in the UK, it's quite indicative. I think, you know,

716
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 4: they're committing to upping their defense spending at the cost

717
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 4: of all of their international aid essentially, so there's something

718
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 4: has to give, and for us it will be core

719
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 4: services like health care and education, and that unless we

720
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 4: can grow the economy as the Prime Minister it has

721
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 4: been talking about. I guess, Reuben, there's also the prospects

722
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 4: with the Americans taking an America first approach to foreign

723
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 4: relations and unilateral action as their preferred modus operandi. Now,

724
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 4: what is the future of the likes of Five Eyes

725
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 4: and Orcus Without the Americans, five Eyes really is not

726
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 4: going to work. Do you see an ongoing commitment to

727
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,320
Speaker 4: those what have been, in terms of Five Eyes anyway

728
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 4: for decades been a really important security collaboration between our allies.

729
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, I don't think the Five Eyes is going anywhere.

730
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 3: In fact, I think it might even expand I've heard

731
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: at times that Japan is sometimes considered kind of the

732
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 3: sixth Eye, a kind of de facto an intelligence Alliance member.

733
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 3: I don't think it's going anywhere because the Pacific and

734
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 3: China are considered the key challenge to the United States

735
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 3: and things that assist them in this geostrategic competition. In

736
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: the Pacific is going to be viewed as of value,

737
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 3: and you have us here in the Pacific, US, Canada,

738
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 3: of course Australia. So I don't think we're going to

739
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 3: see a massive change to the Five Eyes. We might

740
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 3: see an expand expansion of it as it pertains to Aucust.

741
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 3: It is the same thing as you said, America is

742
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 3: actually going to receive billions upon billions of dollars through

743
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 3: Aucust from Australia. Trump will love that. I mean, what

744
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 3: does he love more than cardhold cash being handed over

745
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 3: to the Americans. He loves to highlight any announcement of

746
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 3: new inward investment by a foreign company or even a

747
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 3: domestic American company. So I think he'll actually love August,

748
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 3: even if he doesn't fully know what it is. He'll

749
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 3: just know money is coming into the United States through it,

750
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 3: and one of one of America's little sheriffs down there

751
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 3: Australia is paying them. He'll love that too, a close

752
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 3: ally having to kind of bend over even more and

753
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 3: pay the Americans. So this gets into the transactionalism of

754
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 3: the emerging American strategy, which is essentially America will it

755
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 3: will defend you, will it will give offer you something.

756
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 3: You have to offer them something, and you have to

757
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 3: offer them a bit more than you were in the past.

758
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 3: And you can you can kind of see why, I mean,

759
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 3: America has been spending a lot more on its defense

760
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 3: than basically all of its allies in recent decades, if

761
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 3: not all of them since World War Two. So from

762
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: the American point of view, you could see them being like, well, look, guys,

763
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 3: we've been paying so much for so long. Now our schools,

764
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 3: our social welfare sometimes has to take a hit so

765
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 3: we can defend the free world. In the American interpretation

766
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 3: of what they're doing. So New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Europe,

767
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 3: you guys now need to pay up. You finally have

768
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 3: to stop being free riders and pay up, and if

769
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 3: you do that then we will remain friends. So I

770
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 3: think that's the implicit or really the overt bargain here

771
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 3: and New Zealand. That that's why partly why I think

772
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 3: we will see an increase in our defense spending, because

773
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 3: the Americans, no doubt, behind the scenes, have been saying, hey,

774
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 3: come on, you guys, your little hobbits down there, you're

775
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 3: the ultimate free riders. Can you please pay up and

776
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,800
Speaker 3: help contribute to the kind of defense of the coalition? Yeah,

777
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 3: but separate, separate to that. We shouldn't get too caught

778
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 3: up on that for our own sake, given we are

779
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 3: in a theater that is increasingly unpredictable, and where we

780
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 3: are seeing developments that are at odds with our interests.

781
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 3: We should be paying to bolster our defense forces for

782
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: our own sakes, for our children's sakes, so we don't

783
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 3: wake up ten years from now and we face a

784
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 3: military position in our own region and where we basically

785
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 3: de facto at the mercy of another power, and so

786
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 3: our children aren't saying, hey, what were you guys doing.

787
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 3: You had all the evidence, you could see the world

788
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: was rapidly changing, and it was to your detriment, and

789
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 3: you did nothing about it. So I think we kind

790
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 3: of have a responsibility for our own sakes to to

791
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 3: kind of pay up for the NZ defense force.

792
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 4: And in terms of increased defense spending, we're not We're

793
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 4: not talking about, you know, having having jet fighters again

794
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 4: or anything like that, which would be hugely expensive and

795
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 4: complex to service. We're talking about things like drone capability. Right,

796
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 4: We've got the pights, which are excellent aircraft and provide

797
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 4: a lot of capability, are seen very favorably by allies

798
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 4: as well. It's it's upgrading the slightly decrepit infrastructure and

799
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 4: ships that we already have. We're not talking about a

800
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 4: massively expansionistic military. Here we're talking about actually fixing what

801
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 4: is broken with what we currently have.

802
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're right. It's it's restoring what has

803
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 3: been run down so much. It's so our ships actually

804
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 3: have soldiers on them so they can get out to

805
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 3: respond to cyclones and so on. But yeah, it will

806
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 3: be also investments into drones and increasingly autonomous systems. That

807
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 3: is the direction of travel, and New Zealand will have

808
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 3: to join that drones technology. You've probably seeing some of that.

809
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 3: If you or your listeners haven't, Peter, go check it out.

810
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 3: Go check out these incredible drone swarms we're seeing now.

811
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 3: Imagine thousands of those low cost drones swarming across parts

812
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 3: of the Pacific. They operate like almost schools of fish,

813
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: you know, kind of all moving together and able to

814
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,760
Speaker 3: adjust and react to the environment collectively. That's the direction

815
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 3: of travel. Yes, we will have to replace our navy

816
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,319
Speaker 3: because we are a big maritime power. We have a

817
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: giant exclusive economicsone. We have giant responsibilities for search and rescue,

818
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 3: a disaster response through a massive part of naval territory.

819
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 3: So we are going to have to have some of

820
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 3: that kind of our more traditional naval platforms, but we

821
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 3: also and as a small country, we should be trying

822
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 3: to emphasize and focus on those those emerging technologies that

823
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 3: are going to be critical in the coming years and

824
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 3: can off set some of our relative disadvantages like a

825
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 3: lack of lack of manpower and so on.

826
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 4: Do you think an ask from the US might be

827
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 4: at some point we want to base in New Zealand

828
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 4: or can they sort of prevent those sort of flanking

829
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 4: maneuvers by the Chinese and patrol the Third Island chain

830
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 4: pretty much from Australia, which they do have a really

831
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 4: strong relationship with They have some military operations there. They

832
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 4: could do it from Australia.

833
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, the American position in Australia is broadening and deepening. Ye,

834
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 3: new bases are being established, Bombing aircraft can fly out

835
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 3: of there. Eventually we'll probably see missile defenses go on there. Yeah,

836
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 3: Australia is very much increasingly a hub for American military

837
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 3: activity and platforms as it pertains to us. So this

838
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 3: is where we get into the far reaches. If we

839
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 3: just don't know exactly what the long term American strategy is.

840
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:53,240
Speaker 3: They already have bases in Hawaii, gram Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia.

841
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 3: Is their value in the American view of the emerging

842
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 3: strategic environment to have something in New Zealand potentially, Why

843
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 3: do I say that while this precedent During World War II?

844
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,879
Speaker 3: Of course New Zealand and Australia we're both used for

845
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 3: replenishment or an r and to help the fight back

846
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 3: up towards the Japanese islands. So there is precedent for it.

847
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 3: It could also be and I'm just kind of just

848
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 3: kind of really just pushing the expanse of consideration as

849
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 3: far as I can here. Maybe they would think, Okay, yes, Australia,

850
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 3: it's very large, we can disperse forces, we can have supplies,

851
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 3: we can have AMMO dumps, oil gas, everything there to

852
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 3: go if we need it in a conflict. But what

853
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 3: if Australia is seriously threatened or something happens there that

854
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 3: really takes out our position and the Australian military position.

855
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 3: What might be good is another line of redundancy. And

856
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 3: where would that be, Well, New Zealand. Yeah, maybe you'd

857
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 3: have m O dumps here, supply depots, maybe you'd station

858
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: a few thousand American servicemen down here. I don't not,

859
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: but I wonder if the maximalist they think it could

860
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,720
Speaker 3: be good to have a position down in New Zealand

861
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,240
Speaker 3: as a final line backup.

862
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 4: And finally, Ruben, sort of going back to the premise

863
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 4: off your calm in the post, which is really from

864
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 4: your point of view, Donald Trump is trying to wind

865
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:27,719
Speaker 4: down things in Europe all the resource that's going in

866
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 4: there to address the real issue, which is in Eurasia,

867
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:37,439
Speaker 4: which is containing China. Worst case scenario if it did

868
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 4: or kick off into South China Sea, if there is

869
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 4: an amphibious assault on Taiwan, what does it mean for us?

870
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 5: What is your thoughts? What are your thoughts.

871
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,839
Speaker 4: About how we might be drawn into this? We've got

872
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 4: our p eights. Can you see them being called upon

873
00:50:56,600 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 4: by the Americans and the Australians to play aalen's role

874
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 4: in that war theater? But what other ways could we

875
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 4: potentially be expected to play a supporting role here?

876
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 3: Yes, to your very first point, America doesn't want to

877
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 3: fight a multi front war. It doesn't want to be

878
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 3: fighting Russia at the same time it's fighting China at

879
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 3: the same time it's fighting Iraana. North Korea. So that's

880
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 3: my point why I think Trump is trying to de

881
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,720
Speaker 3: escalate things in Eastern Europe and provide room to shift

882
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 3: more to the Pacific. To your second and more curly

883
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 3: difficult question, the whole range of scenarios, it depends upon

884
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:40,240
Speaker 3: how it plays out. I mean, we can imagine China

885
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,240
Speaker 3: blockading Taiwan, which might be the way they would start

886
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 3: the beginning of some kind of crisis or even a

887
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 3: military adventure so to speak. And in situations like that,

888
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:51,399
Speaker 3: I mean, I just don't know if we'd had much

889
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 3: of a role to play. But if it was a

890
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 3: full scale attack invasion Taiwan, the South China seas is

891
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 3: somehow involved, you have the US allies or gearing up

892
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 3: to respond, the Americans are responding, and this response could

893
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 3: play out over days and weeks. I mean, the Pacific

894
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 3: is such a vast ocean, right, It's not going to

895
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 3: be this happens in Taiwana necessarily born it's full scale

896
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:15,319
Speaker 3: World War three. But we can imagine over days and

897
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 3: weeks this thing kind of escalates and transports. Look, I

898
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 3: suspect the pights would be the first and maybe the

899
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,720
Speaker 3: only real capability we have initially that would be involved

900
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 3: in some manner, and that would be in a surveillance capability.

901
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,760
Speaker 3: It would also be in a It could be perhaps

902
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 3: to free up some Australian positions to allow them to

903
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 3: move north, but it could simply be New Zealand. We

904
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 3: need you to keep an eye on your own exclusive

905
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 3: economic zone because Chinese submarines could be in your waters.

906
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 3: We don't want them popping up far in the South

907
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 3: Pacific and they're then flanking our positions and so on,

908
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 3: so we need you to really be monitoring, have your

909
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 3: pates in the air, keeping an eye on what's happening.

910
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 3: As it relates to us being kinetically involved in the conflict,

911
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 3: well in theory, through our alliance with Australia, we are

912
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: obligated to the defense. So if the northern parts of

913
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 3: Australia were attacked or threatened, then there could reasonably be

914
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,280
Speaker 3: a request from Canberra to Wellington saying hey, New Zealand,

915
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 3: we need your support. We need you to be sending ships.

916
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 3: We need to send vessels people to help base themselves

917
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 3: in the northern parts of Australia in case there is

918
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,760
Speaker 3: war here or conflict here. If the South Pacific Islands

919
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 3: if they were involved, then there could be a similar thing. Okay,

920
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 3: our men and women will perhaps be headed towards the

921
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 3: South Pacific Islands to make sure our friends, our partners

922
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 3: are you know, we are essentially family with the Pacific Islands,

923
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 3: you might say, to help defend them or to ensure

924
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 3: their stability there. So there's just so many different scenarios

925
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 3: and ways that could play out, and I think we

926
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 3: owe it to ourselves in the coming years to be

927
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 3: thinking through some of these scenarios and publics and breaking

928
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:51,919
Speaker 3: them down.

929
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, and there's a kinetic aspect of it in a

930
00:53:56,360 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 4: hot war nightmare scenario, but there's the economic warfare as well,

931
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 4: And probably the biggest impact for us initially if there

932
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 4: was conflict is we would be expected to put sanctions

933
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 4: on China. Potentially could have a devastating impact on our

934
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 4: economy literally overnight.

935
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 3: Yep. And I think, look, I think those sanctions will

936
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:19,319
Speaker 3: be in place without putting the sanctions on. I mean,

937
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 3: if there's a conflict or major crisis, a major crisis

938
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 3: around Taiwan, are we still going to be comfortable sending

939
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 3: our agricultural produce on ships through the South China? See

940
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 3: up to China. I'm not entirely sure. I mean maybe,

941
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:35,959
Speaker 3: but there are a lot of scenarios where just all

942
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: trade to Northeast Asia basically shuts down overnight, and that

943
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 3: in itself is basically the same as sanctions. Right. One

944
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: final thing I'll say, just on the previous point, though,

945
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 3: is that it's space is also an arena we're going

946
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 3: to have to keep an eye on because of rocket

947
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 3: lad because of our increasing dependence on all things in space.

948
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 3: That is an area of increased attention, you might say.

949
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 3: And we have of strategic interests in space remaining stable

950
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:05,399
Speaker 3: and those satellites not being interfered with or shot down

951
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 3: or what have you. And the real fear is that

952
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 3: in the beginning of a major conflict over Taiwan that

953
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 3: we could see basically a wall breakout in space as

954
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 3: well to shut down what he decides military space assets.

955
00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 4: And that's what Scott Morrison on his recent visit to

956
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 4: New Zealand suggested when it comes to what we could

957
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 4: potentially offer as part of a defense alliance like Orcus

958
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 4: Space or Space Technology and rocket labers at the heart

959
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 4: of it. Sure, they're now an American company working out

960
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 4: of Virginia, their launch site. They're very sensitive contracts with

961
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 4: the government. But we do have Dawn Aerospace for horizontal

962
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 4: takeoff and delivery off payloads. We've got Kia, We've got

963
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 4: other companies as well. So that's clearly not necessarily by design,

964
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 4: but just the fact that somehow our space industry took

965
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 4: off in New Zealand really around the work of Sir

966
00:55:56,920 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 4: Peter Beck. That's clearly something attractive the rest as well.

967
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:04,400
Speaker 4: So and as you say that, we've got pockets of

968
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 4: expertise as well, so we do have potentially something to offer,

969
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 4: and particularly in that space realm yep, yep.

970
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 3: And I'll just say one other thing. We may very

971
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 3: well have some considerable critical subsea minerals, you know, like

972
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:21,320
Speaker 3: hence the Cook Islands, which are sitting on a basin

973
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 3: a massive amount of really critical minerals and which has

974
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 3: lead to the steal with China. We have a giant

975
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 3: exclusive economic zone. I've talked to some people and we

976
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 3: don't even know what really we're sitting on. So we

977
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 3: may very well be quite valuable, you could say, in

978
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,359
Speaker 3: the future to certain countries who want access to those

979
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 3: subsea minerals for a range of batteries. Emerging technologies and

980
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: so on. So we need to start thinking a bit more,

981
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,359
Speaker 3: a bit more seriously about how geostrategically significant we are

982
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,280
Speaker 3: for a range of reasons.

983
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 4: Well, it's a pretty complex landscape that you're navigating. The

984
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 4: book is fantastic. I think, you know, anyone who's interested

985
00:56:59,920 --> 00:57:02,560
Speaker 4: in the strategic direction of New Zealand from both a

986
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:06,719
Speaker 4: business and a military and geopolitical point of view should

987
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 4: read it. So we'll put a link to that in

988
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 4: the show notes. Thanks so much for coming on. We're

989
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 4: going to keep up the great work. It's so good

990
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,919
Speaker 4: having people like yourself giving this sort of commentary which

991
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,920
Speaker 4: we sorely need. We need informed debate if we're going

992
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 4: to make some big decisions in this area in the

993
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:22,320
Speaker 4: coming months and years.

994
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 3: Awesome, Thank you, Peter. It be great to check.

995
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 4: So Ben, what's your take on all of that? Where

996
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 4: do you stand on us joining Orcus?

997
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 1: You know, I think six months ago I probably would

998
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 1: have been I probably would have been more keen on

999
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 1: the situation. You know, the stuff that Rubin was saying

1000
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:55,959
Speaker 1: about kind of access to these technologies and being able

1001
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 1: to share in the developments, and that's all really good.

1002
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 1: But I don't know if at the moment we want

1003
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 1: another another chain attaching us to the US's global position.

1004
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: I think that there's some It would concern me if

1005
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 1: they were to say, well, you know, we've given you X,

1006
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 1: Y and Z, so now we expect you to withdraw

1007
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 1: aid from the Ukraine or some other kind of situation

1008
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 1: like that. You know, I understand there's some separation, but

1009
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 1: I think that when it comes down to it, any

1010
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 1: lever that can be pulled by the Trump administration potentially.

1011
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 5: Will be.

1012
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 1: So, yeah, maybe it's a great idea to join UCAS

1013
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,200
Speaker 1: in four years.

1014
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 4: Well look, you know, ultimately I don't think we have

1015
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 4: a choice on this. The way I see it and

1016
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 4: the way that Reuben sort of lays us out in

1017
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 4: the book, I've come away even more convinced that, unfortunately

1018
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 4: that of forty or fifty year period we had really

1019
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 4: the golden weather after World War Two, where New Zealand

1020
00:59:07,720 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 4: was pretty much independent. Sure we were allied with the

1021
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 4: US and Australian particular, but particularly after the anti nuclear

1022
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 4: free movement of the nineteen eighties, we sort of went

1023
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,440
Speaker 4: out on the world stage. We used soft power as

1024
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 4: a leaver. People listened to us that era is sort

1025
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 4: of over now, and particularly when it comes to the US,

1026
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 4: they ain't going to listen to us on anything. What

1027
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 4: they do is expect us to play our part in

1028
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 4: defending our realm. And as Reuben pointed out, you know,

1029
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 4: the Third Island chain, which we are part of, is

1030
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 4: increasingly being targeted by China basically as a flanking maneuver.

1031
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 4: It's very crowded, it's very dangerous, and it's very touchy

1032
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 4: in the other island chains, but down here it's sort

1033
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 4: of isolated and open, which is why they popped up

1034
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 4: in the TASM. See didn't tell anyone and no one

1035
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 4: saw them coming. So yeah, I think we're basically being

1036
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 4: sort of led into this sort of arrangement where we

1037
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 4: need to double down on our defense, pick up by spending,

1038
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 4: and do what we can to be interoperable with particularly

1039
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 4: with the Australians, but with the Americans as well. So unfortunately,

1040
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 4: I don't think we have much of a choice. The

1041
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 4: alternative I don't think is realistic maintaining independence or doing

1042
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 4: something with China that's just unthinkable. We would lose, we'd

1043
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 4: be cut off straight away if we did that.

1044
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. But you know, I just

1045
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 1: wonder if we need to sign a contract, you know,

1046
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,439
Speaker 1: or like if we need to like you know, put

1047
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 1: on wave the flag and go out there. You know,

1048
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 1: I think there is that sense of independence is really

1049
01:00:57,120 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 1: such a powerful thing for New Zealand's kind of defense

1050
01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 1: because it does put us in a position where, look,

1051
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 1: we you know, we have these ties with Australia, and

1052
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 1: you know, we're strongly allied, we're part of the Commonwealth,

1053
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 1: and so we have all of those things around us,

1054
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 1: but we are also at the edge of the world.

1055
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 1: We're not really going to make a particularly good base

1056
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:27,439
Speaker 1: because of distance. It's really the only reason to come

1057
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 1: after us would be some kind of flex which is possible,

1058
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, yes, Taiwan, I think there is

1059
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 1: something there where if there was that issue, we would

1060
01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 1: have to play a part. So there is some ramping

1061
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 1: up to do. But just to kind of sign a

1062
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: thing saying please daddy us, can you feed us your

1063
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 1: your technology and we will do whatever it takes, it

1064
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 1: just feels I don't know, it just doesn't feel New

1065
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 1: Zealand to me. Maybe I'm being a little bit naive

1066
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: and happy to have to say that I'm not exactly

1067
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 1: the most hawkish of people.

1068
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:06,800
Speaker 4: So and look, I think you know, generation of Kiwis

1069
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:12,280
Speaker 4: have grown up in that safe environment and are really

1070
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 4: proud of the role that New Zealand has played on

1071
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 4: the world stage, dialing back tensions where possible, not focusing

1072
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:26,080
Speaker 4: on defense as a large partiph are spending as a nation.

1073
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:28,480
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are really supportive of that.

1074
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 4: But boy, the world is changing in a big way.

1075
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 4: And sure, you know, we're never probably going to be

1076
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 4: a big target of China, but you know we are

1077
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 4: not going to stop them through soft power trying to

1078
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 4: find a base in the lower South Pacific and cozy

1079
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:48,440
Speaker 4: up to our neighbors to shore up that third island

1080
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 4: chain and try and dominate it.

1081
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 1: You know, we're not going to stop them full stop, Peter.

1082
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 1: We New Zealand isn't going to have that kind of capability. Ever,

1083
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 1: there's five million of us.

1084
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:01,040
Speaker 3: No.

1085
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 4: But if we through you know, using these technologies as

1086
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 4: part of ORCUS, if we are right on top of

1087
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 4: our part of the world, surveiling it, including our Pacific

1088
01:03:11,840 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 4: island neighbors, I think it's going to make it that

1089
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 4: much harder for the Chinese to comfortably move about in

1090
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 4: our part of the world. And that's what I think

1091
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:23,840
Speaker 4: the Americans expect. I don't really see it, you know,

1092
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 4: them moving into New Zealand having a base here. They've

1093
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 4: got Australia, They've got the nuclear submarine deal happening, and boy,

1094
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:33,640
Speaker 4: that's going to be really interesting when those nuclear powered

1095
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 4: submarines start roaming around the Tasman. Are we going to

1096
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 4: even allow them into our waters? That's going to be

1097
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,240
Speaker 4: the crunch time. That's actually more important, I think than

1098
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 4: the Aucust Pillar two stuff, is how are we going

1099
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 4: to embrace or not these nuclear subs if and when

1100
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 4: they start roaming around our neighborhood.

1101
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 1: And if we sign up for August Pillar two, it's

1102
01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 1: going to make it much harder for us to say no.

1103
01:03:56,920 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 1: And really this is such an echo of that of

1104
01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 1: that David Longey situation, isn't it. Really? You know that

1105
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 1: we're looking at it and it is going to depend

1106
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 1: a lot on who is in that seat, whether or

1107
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 1: not they capitulate or whether they stand firm, and how

1108
01:04:14,400 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 1: the people of New Zealand feel about it. You know,

1109
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 1: what if something massive happens in our neck of the woods,

1110
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 1: like you know, perhaps the China, Taiwan, or China starts

1111
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: doing some silly things around the coast of Australia that

1112
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 1: might change the public attitude and might make us a

1113
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:36,560
Speaker 1: little bit more comfortable allowing these nuclear subs into our

1114
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:41,960
Speaker 1: waters maybe or at least make it so that the Parliament,

1115
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 1: you know, the government is fearful enough that they do

1116
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 1: say yes in that situation, and maybe then aucus is

1117
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 1: the right place for us to be.

1118
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, we might not have the option.

1119
01:04:53,720 --> 01:04:57,120
Speaker 4: Then they might go, well, no, you had your three

1120
01:04:57,160 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 4: months membership opportunity to sign up and too it down.

1121
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 1: See you that's true. I mean I don't know, I

1122
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 1: can't I can't see Australia doing that to us.

1123
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:11,120
Speaker 4: But you know, yeah, well it's you know, I think

1124
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 4: the next four years we're going to see a lot

1125
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 4: of things that we've never seen before in this part

1126
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:21,280
Speaker 4: of the world. And with this administration in the White House,

1127
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 4: everything that was on the table is up for grabs.

1128
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:29,040
Speaker 4: So you know, who knows how long ORCUST will last

1129
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 4: in its current format. I know, you know, Reuben said

1130
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 4: five eyes are solid. He's not going to abandon that.

1131
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 4: But you know, look at the relationship with NATO. You know,

1132
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 4: one of the strongest military alliances since World War Two,

1133
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 4: you know, anything as possible.

1134
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:49,280
Speaker 1: I think the most ironic thing, truly for me, is

1135
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: this return to imperialism that has taken hold of the world,

1136
01:05:57,240 --> 01:06:03,360
Speaker 1: where you know, we kind of had these imperialistic rhetoric

1137
01:06:03,440 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 1: kind of China with Tibetan, with Taiwan and Hong Kong,

1138
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 1: and it was kind of gray in many areas because

1139
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: they were you know, that the force they were using

1140
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:19,120
Speaker 1: wasn't devastating, it wasn't a full on invasion, and there

1141
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:23,400
Speaker 1: were contracts and all kinds of strange things. Russia really

1142
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:26,360
Speaker 1: changed a lot with the invasion of the Ukraine. It

1143
01:06:26,400 --> 01:06:33,280
Speaker 1: is a clear imperialist move and the true foundational shaking

1144
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 1: is what is happening with the Donald Trump administration. He

1145
01:06:38,520 --> 01:06:43,720
Speaker 1: is an imperialist. The words that he is saying are

1146
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:47,000
Speaker 1: echoing the worst atrocities of the nineteenth century in the

1147
01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:53,280
Speaker 1: twentieth century, and I think that any kind of rhetoric

1148
01:06:53,360 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 1: around trying to play that down is wrongheaded and that

1149
01:06:58,000 --> 01:07:01,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm talking outside my realm of technology, but

1150
01:07:01,160 --> 01:07:05,920
Speaker 1: I think it is relevant because when you have a

1151
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 1: country that is so that has become a center of

1152
01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 1: technology for the world, and then it starts flaunting that

1153
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:21,800
Speaker 1: technological power in an aggressive way. Then you start to

1154
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 1: end up with a truly horrible time, especially considering the

1155
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,200
Speaker 1: technologies that we do have available to us now. So

1156
01:07:31,120 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 1: my sincere hope is that if Europe can, you know,

1157
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:42,520
Speaker 1: outstrong men the spear shaking that's happening coming out of

1158
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 1: North America or the US specifically obviously, and if Canada

1159
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 1: can kind of help as well to somehow convince that

1160
01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 1: administration to just calm down and remember that we are

1161
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 1: not in the twentieth early time, twentieth century anymore.

1162
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:01,880
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1163
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 4: Well, you know, this week, the share market is tanking

1164
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:09,000
Speaker 4: on the back of the the tariffs with Canada and

1165
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 4: China and others.

1166
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:12,440
Speaker 5: And I think, if anything, that's.

1167
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 4: What will give Trump pause for thought about treating his

1168
01:08:18,120 --> 01:08:21,760
Speaker 4: allies as something he can extract value from rather than

1169
01:08:21,760 --> 01:08:24,840
Speaker 4: a true partnership. Is it's going to blow back on

1170
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,800
Speaker 4: the American people and it's going to cost them more.

1171
01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 4: Inflation is going to go up. He's obsessed with the markets,

1172
01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 4: and once he sees them start to tank, I think

1173
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:37,960
Speaker 4: maybe that's when he'll take his foot off the gas.

1174
01:08:38,400 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 1: I'm hoping anyway, maybe maybe but I mean the the

1175
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:45,840
Speaker 1: sh tanking share market going to impact the billion our

1176
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:47,959
Speaker 1: friends that he's made that are funding his lifestyle.

1177
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:50,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, good point.

1178
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:55,759
Speaker 4: So thanks so much to doctor Rubin staff for coming

1179
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:58,479
Speaker 4: on really interesting insights here and we'll link to where

1180
01:08:58,479 --> 01:08:59,559
Speaker 4: you can find his book.

1181
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 5: Some of the recent.

1182
01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:04,519
Speaker 4: Articles he's written on the rapidly evolving geopolitical situation in

1183
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:05,120
Speaker 4: the Pacific.

1184
01:09:05,479 --> 01:09:07,479
Speaker 1: Show notes and this week's reading list are in the

1185
01:09:07,479 --> 01:09:10,400
Speaker 1: podcast section at Businessdesk dot co, dot z.

1186
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:13,760
Speaker 4: Where you can stream the podcast on iHeartRadio. It's also

1187
01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:16,679
Speaker 4: available on your podcast platform of choice.

1188
01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:19,320
Speaker 1: Get in touch with your feedback and topic suggestions were

1189
01:09:19,360 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 1: on LinkedIn and Blue Sky.

1190
01:09:21,800 --> 01:09:24,799
Speaker 4: And catch up with the podcast next Thursday for another

1191
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:26,320
Speaker 4: dose of the business of tech.

1192
01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 1: In the meantime, do try and have a good week.