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Speaker 1: Jobs day. Of course, government needs a decent number. Consensus

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Speaker 1: says peak has been reached where at five point three,

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Speaker 1: of course, so if it stays there, that's a half

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Speaker 1: decent sign. I guess if it drops well as party poppers,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. Mark Smith, asb senior economist, is back with us. Mark,

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Speaker 1: very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike.

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Speaker 1: You're bolish five point two. What leads you to be

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Speaker 1: in this position?

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Speaker 2: Probably it's really margin thereious stuff, But after the climbing

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Speaker 2: for the last four years, we think the unemployment rate

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Speaker 2: will start to headline. Really, what we're seeing now is

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Speaker 2: hiring to be on the backburnaser Now firms are now

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Speaker 2: actually starting to start hiring, and we've seen a pack

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Speaker 2: up in jobs, jobs growth towards her last year.

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Speaker 1: The confidence stuff, the vibe stuff, you know, business confidence,

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Speaker 1: consumer confidence. Does that materially lead to somebody going to

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Speaker 1: tell you wanting to hire somebody?

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Speaker 2: It will in time, I think firms quite rightly. Last year,

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Speaker 2: I think we're very uncertain. There are a lot of

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Speaker 2: headlines and people were sort of holding back. I think

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Speaker 2: we're a lot more bullished this year. I think the

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Speaker 2: economy has some underlying momentum, and I think firms, after

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Speaker 2: wedding on the sidelines last year this year are going

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Speaker 2: to convert those intentions into actions. So yeah, we're pretty

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Speaker 2: bolished in terms of the employment outlook. Expect the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rates to fall from below five percent sort of mark

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Speaker 2: in the last year, tours four and a half percent

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Speaker 2: at the end of this year.

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Speaker 1: Four point five by the end of this year. And

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Speaker 1: what are we looking Can we see into twenty seven

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Speaker 1: or are we just getting ahead of ourselves here?

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Speaker 2: Again, that's very fdayous territory given everything that's happened, but

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Speaker 2: we are pretty positive. We think it should continue to

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Speaker 2: fall down. Looking at households when you think about it,

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Speaker 2: that they're faith in number of shocks, the cost of living,

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Speaker 2: those pressures are going to ease. The housing market now

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Speaker 2: is showing signs of recovery, not not sitting in the

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Speaker 2: world and via, but recovery, and more importantly, the jobs

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Speaker 2: market is now packing up. Those things are going to

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Speaker 2: underpin the domestic extension to this year.

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Speaker 1: Good does four or five counteract the Australian story and

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Speaker 1: we can hang around home for a while longer.

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Speaker 2: Their economy is hotder than ours to be fear so

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Speaker 2: people will vote for their feat for now, but there

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Speaker 2: is still a lot here in New Zealand to be

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Speaker 2: presudent of of so we think migration and trends will

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Speaker 2: start to tune around this year as well.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, Mark go well, Mark Smith, He's on five two.

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Speaker 1: Let's hope he's right asb Senior Economists. For more from

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