WEBVTT - Winter weather: Why the next few months will be wetter, warmer despite looming cold snaps 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:08.119 Gielder. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:16.319 a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. A 0:00:16.480 --> 0:00:20.320 warmer winter is coming now. This means a few things. 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:22.680 Power bills might ease up for those of us who 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:24.880 are heated dependent during chilli. 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:26.120 Nights, which is a positive right. 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:29.400 However, these conditions won't be great for those heading away 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:30.280 for ski season. 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:32.400 And while the powfer jackets can stay in. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:35.600 The wardrobe, perhaps those rain ones will be getting a 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.600 workout because with a warmer winter comes rain. Today on 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:43.239 the front Page, NIWA forecaster Chris Brandolino is with us 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:45.800 to give us a glimpse into what the weather might 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:55.840 look like in the months ahead. Chris, it felt like 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.280 we had a very wet autumn. Every week there was 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.360 some warning as thunderstorms or severe rainfall. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:05.200 So exactly how wet was it, it depends on. 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:05.640 Where you were. 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:09.119 Now, look, we'll be issuing our Autumn Climate Summary, which 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.720 is a retrospective look at the autumn season. Marjor Abile 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:13.920 may not to come, I think later this week, let's 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:16.480 say maybe Thursday, believe, but just in the spirit of 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:18.960 a sneak peek for friends, it really depends on where 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.280 you were. So for example, Northland, you know, was quite wet, 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:25.800 So Kaitaya had one hundred and seventy five percent of 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.640 normal rainfall. Typically Kaitaya will get about three hundred and 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.440 thirty one millimeters of rain, but they had well over 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.399 five hundred millimeters of rainfall for the autumn season, so 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:34.600 it was. 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:35.200 Pretty wet there. 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:37.880 But look if you go to places in different parts 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.760 of the North Island. For example, if you were to 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:44.480 go to say mant Rupehu right at the chateau, they 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.160 only had two hundred and four millimeters, that's only a 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:52.080 third of what they normally get, so quite low rainfall there. Likewise, 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.000 and Thames they only had seventy six percent of normal. 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:58.520 But you're right, there were certainly a lot of places Nelson, 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:00.960 I'm just looking and scanning. I list in front of me, 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:04.960 over toward winch More and over toward Lincoln Broadfield, christ 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.240 Church had a pretty wet autumn and a lot of 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:10.120 that was off the heels of say one or two 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:13.760 big rain events. So yeah, it was certainly wet from 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:17.120 many areas of New Zealand for the autumn season, but 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:19.079 it was not wet everywhere was. 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.360 It unusual the places that did it experience a wet autumn. 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.960 I know autumn and winter can obviously be wet seasons, 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:27.799 but the severity of it in some places seemed a 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:28.600 little unusual. 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:29.040 Yeah. 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:31.280 Again, there were the big couple of big rain events 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:34.040 we had and that caused some flooding. Think of what 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:36.919 happened in Nelson with those downpours back in late May, 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:39.200 and that was a very short but sharp rain event, 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:40.880 and you know we had a lot of rainfall and 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:42.520 in just three or four hours we. 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:43.400 Had some flooding. 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.160 I think we had parts of Northland had some minor 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.040 to modest flooding going back to earlier in the autumn season. 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.360 So yeah, there were I don't think there were the 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:57.840 really high end rain events that caused significant flooding. We 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:01.840 did have the big rain events. That one event that 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.440 maybe is a standout in terms of flooding. So if 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:09.120 you remember Banks Peninsula and areas around christ Churts, they 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.800 had a state of emergency and they had you know, 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.560 I think one two times normal what they would typically 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.519 get in April, but it fell in basically a couple 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:20.760 of days, so you double the amount with falls in 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.080 thirty days but you're getting it in a couple of days, 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:24.640 and you know, we get some big problems. We had 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.919 the red warning for Wellington that was for the wind event, 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:29.880 so that wasn't really rain, that was a strong wind 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:32.040 event there. So yeah, so it was an active autumn, 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.600 but like a lot of times, it came and fits 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.920 and stops. We had some extended periods of dry weather. 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.720 We had dryness and drought going back to the late 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:43.440 summer early autumn in places like Tenanaki, places like southwest 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.480 Wakato and the Manawatu King Country had some pretty dry 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.840 conditions and some of those areas I've still seen dry 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.880 soils right now, particularly in the Manawatu region, and soils 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:53.240 are usually dry for the time of. 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:57.040 Year out of there. 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:59.280 Well, winter is upon us, but of course what can 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.720 we expect. You know what, you may need to buckle 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:03.800 your seatbelts. It could be a wild ride. There's going 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.360 to be a bit of everything into the mix. As 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:07.120 far as things go. We could have, of course, some 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.040 pretty good storms. We could have some cold outbreaks good 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.120 for the skiers, and we're going to get some fine 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.400 days as well. When we look at the atmosphere, there's 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:16.159 going to be lots of variety, so we're going to 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:18.839 mix things around. It's like some flour, some extra sugar, 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:22.040 mix it round, and some spice and bomb you get 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:23.880 all those things going on. Warmer than normal. 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:27.960 So let's look ahead to winter. 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:30.919 I've sayen that it's going to be warmer than usual 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:32.320 but still quite wet. 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:34.960 So what sort of weather systems are we looking at here? 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.840 Yeah, so you're right, a couple of ways to answer that. 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:42.080 So in summary, we are expecting a warmer than average 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:44.920 winter as a whole. Now I'm using my words carefully 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.920 as a whole, because if you've seen the weather predictions 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.840 for later this weekend, the weekend, there's going to be 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:53.520 a significant cold snap, and you know, you maybe think, well, 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:55.360 Juice christ you said it was going to be warmer 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.080 than average winter, how come WI is it going to 0:04:57.120 --> 0:04:58.280 be so cold this weekend? 0:04:58.320 --> 0:04:59.360 Well, both can be true. 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:01.760 That's because we give a three month outlook, not a 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:04.279 three day outlook. So a three month outlook there is 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:06.800 a lot of water to pass under that bridge. And 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:11.919 this is just one weekend of thirteen for the winter season, right, 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:15.640 So we are expecting this pretty big cold snap Friday, 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.320 Saturday and Sunday, and that may come with some snow. 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:18.880 To low levels. 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.520 We'll see Even if the snow to low levels or 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:25.520 a meaningful amount of snow to low levels does not 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:29.640 occur Friday into Saturday, it will be darn cold with 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:33.680 squally day on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms, maybe some hail. 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:37.360 But unfortunately, if you're a skier or a snow enthusiast, 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:39.599 or feel like cold temperatures for that matter, I don't 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.120 think that cold snap that we're going to see from 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.080 Friday into the weekend is going to have much staying 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:47.440 power and we're probably gonna warm back up. 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.760 And that will be the theme for the winter season. 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.880 That is, yes, we'll get cold snaps, but we're probably 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:55.440 gonna get less of them than what is typical, and 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.799 that is because we're expecting air flows for the winter 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:02.880 season less. So look, you don't have to be ANEWA meteorologists, 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:04.960 you don't have to be a rocket scientist. You know 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:07.599 it ain't gonna get cold if you don't have a 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.920 cold wind direction. It's very simple in that regard. Now, 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:13.560 the trick, of course, is trying to isolate and determine 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.400 and pick what is that overall wind direction wind to 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.719 being that can be challenging. Our sense is that yeah, 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.320 there will be souther least, but they're going to be 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.360 more infrequent than usual, so we're not gonna see a 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:26.320 lot of them. We'll see more northeast and northwest winds 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.880 than usual. So again, more northeast and northwest winds than 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.000 usual doesn't mean every day, every week, every you know, 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:35.760 month or hour of the winter. It just means more 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.839 than what is typical and that will drive temperatures up. Also, 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:42.640 our ocean temperatures are running warmer than average around New Zealand, 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:46.599 and that means it'll be hard to sustain for long 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:49.000 cold snaps. The one we're going to see this this 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.160 upcoming late week and especially this weekend which may kind 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.200 of sneak into Monday, that will last three or four 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.240 days or so. But you know, we're not going to 0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:59.720 see these cold snaps that last you know, six, seven, eight, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:00.440 nine days. 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:03.640 It's just not going to happen. Be very unlikely anyway, should. 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:19.000 Say, yeah, when we speak about a warmer winter, I'm Australian, 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:23.040 so I think anything under eighteen is cold. Sure, So 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.760 so what kind of temperatures are we talking when we're 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:27.280 saying it's warmer than usual. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:31.240 It depends, like it depends on where you are, what 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.400 you call home. But just by way of example, the 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.560 winter average, So this is like, this is a lot 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:41.760 of assumption. So we're taking we're a we're smoothing things 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.680 out over three months, right, and we all know how 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.080 there can be variability. Look, this is a climate I'm 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:49.600 going to answer your question. Just give me a second. 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.120 This is a climate Outlook, what we're attempting to do 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:56.880 is predict Mother Nature's personality over a three month period. Right, 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.480 weather is Mother Nature's mood. Now, if if we if 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.440 we kind of get mother Nature's personality correct or at 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.720 least in the right direction, on more days than not, 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:08.880 the mood will align itself with the personality. But in 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.680 some days it won't. So there's a lot of Smoothingess 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:15.840 what I'm saying now, The typical mean temperature that's the 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.800 average for say Auckland for the winter season is eleven 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:22.560 point six degrees. So that means if you take the 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:26.160 high and the low for each day during winter and 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.000 you add it up and divide by what it's in 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.080 ninety one days or whatever, the number of days is 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.000 you would get eleven point six. What we're saying is 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:36.679 that the mean temperature for the winter season, our expectation 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:39.240 is to be higher than that. Now, for Kaitaya it's 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:42.280 twelve and a half degrees, but for Dunedin it's seven 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.040 point three. For christ Church it's about seven and a 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:48.400 half seven point four. So what we're saying is that 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.000 for the winter season, our expectation is that where we 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:55.640 land come September first winter is in the rearview mirror, 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:58.520 the mean temperature will be higher than that. But that 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.120 can come in many ways, you know, just like I 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.920 can tell you if you run a business right and 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.120 I say, hey, for the next three months for the winter, 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:12.400 you're going to have above average profits, You're like, sweet, awesome. 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.280 But does that mean every weekend is going to be 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:16.520 above average profits? 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:16.680 No. 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:19.720 That could come in the form of one really crazy 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.720 month where your profits are just out of control. You 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:26.720 have crazy good profits for one month, and then the 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:28.040 second month maybe. 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:28.920 They're about average. 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.679 They're okay, they're not great, they're not awesome, they're okay, 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.320 and then the third month are below average. But guess what, 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:38.800 because that first month was so extraordinary high with profits 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:42.120 that really swamped out or muted out the other two 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.480 months which did have a factor, but when it all 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.520 came out in the wash, it was still above average. 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:48.079 Profits same before their temperature. 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:52.040 We could have one month where it's so exceptionally warm 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:54.160 that the other two months, I don't want to say 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:57.079 almost don't matter, but they become less relevant in terms 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.240 of trying to influence what that final number is. So 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.920 this is a longer term outlook, and these outlooks are 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:06.920 trying to identify themes, and that theme is for warmer 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.679 than average temperatures, and these things can be hard to communicate, 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.160 and for someone listening to this, they can be like, 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:12.520 what the. 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:14.800 Heck does that mean? How can I make a decision? 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:16.880 Well, what it means is that if we're going to 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.400 see less cold snaps now, less cold snaps is not 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.240 zero cold snaps, I e. What will happen this weekend. 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.760 Maybe it means you're run your heater less frequently. Okay, 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.199 Maybe it means that you can enjoy more days outside 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.760 and not be so cold more days than usual. Anyway, 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.319 Maybe it means if you're a snow enthusiast, if you're 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.319 a snowboarder, if you're a skied Well, maybe that means 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:41.040 you're simply not going to have a great season. Potentially, 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:45.840 I think the North Island ski fields maybe especially challenged. 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.360 We'll see what happens for the South Island ski fields. 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.679 Warmer than average winter for South Island ski fields, well, 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:54.520 if you're high enough in the altitude, it could still 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.040 be warmer than average, but still. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:56.760 Cold enough for snow. 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:02.440 In Europe had to use helicopters and trucks to carry 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.439 snow to the Bear slopes in order to stay open, 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.120 and in Japan, energy costs were so high that they 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:11.960 had to keep the machinery shut down and just wait 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.200 for natural snow to fall down the sky. Snow cover 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:19.160 is projected to shrink globally as the planet worms, So 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.400 this is a challenging future for ski resorts. 0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.079 How concerning is it that the temperatures will be kind 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.760 of warmer than usual? Is that another sign of climate 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:33.160 change or does it just happen in every now and again? 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:34.240 Yeah, both are true. 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.160 Look, grass will grow by itself, right throwing fertilizer, that's 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.640 a much different story and it can overcome a lot. 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:44.160 Same thing with athletes. Athletes are high performing, they're talented, people. 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.000 You give them HDH or steroids, they can perform a 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:51.240 lot better. Look, climate change doesn't cause extreme weather. Here's 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.680 what climate change does three simple things. It makes extreme 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:59.560 events more likely. It makes extreme events, extreme weather events, 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.160 more frequent, and it makes them more extreme, more likely, 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.880 more frequent, more extreme. I didn't say it creates them. 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:08.640 It does not create them because this has always happened 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.120 in the past. We've always had extreme events. And what 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.080 is an extreme event. It could be too much rain, 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:17.480 too little rain, both ends of the spectrum, really high temperatures, 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:22.520 really active weather. So climate change because of a warmer 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:26.240 earth that energizes the atmosphere, and you tend to hit 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:29.480 those extremes more likely to hit them, more frequent, and 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:33.360 those extremes can be more well extreme. How concerning is it? Well, 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.679 warmer than usual winters, it's become almost background noise because 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.000 I think a lot of people are used to hearing it, 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.080 at least that's my sense. Maybe I'm wrong, and what 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:47.359 happens is that something maybe it becomes normalized. But in reality, 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.360 when we see warmer than average conditions and you see 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:54.839 the trend, that's the concerning part is you see how 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:59.240 these are becoming more common and more frequent. So look, unfortunately, 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.080 when in twenty twenty five, if it turns out to 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.280 be warmer than average as a whole, Again, that's over 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.760 a three month period when you're smoothing out the peaks 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:12.000 in the valleys, When you compare it to a winter, 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:16.880 and say two thousand and ninety, so twenty ninety, that 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:18.959 may actually be a cool winter. So in other words, 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.280 if you take winter twenty twenty five, if it turns 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:23.640 out to be warmer than usual, and you hop pop 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.280 it into a time machine and you exit that said 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:28.440 time machine, and you're in the year two thousand and 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.960 ninety and you're armed with winter twenty twenty five, odds 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:33.199 are that'll be a cool winter. 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.840 And finally, Chris, I know that we always ask you 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.080 this when you're wrong, but can you look into your 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.360 crystal bowl and do we know anything about what spring 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:43.680 and summer might look like yet? 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:49.080 Dark nights, bright days? Does that work? Yeah? 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:53.560 Look, when you're going out several months, three months, that's 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.360 a challenge. But when you go out six nine months, 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.679 you can imagine that's even more challenging. So the short 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.120 answer there is there's a little bit of insight. The 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.520 longer answer is what you need to do where a 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.400 person like myself who's in this sort of business, is 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:10.320 you try to identify a climate driver, and we do 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:12.760 this with even our three month outlooks and a climate 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.440 driver basically as well, who's at the steering with Mother 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:17.720 Nature's car? Who's driving the car? If you know who's 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.480 driving the car, odds, are you know which direction you're 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:23.680 gonna favor or lean toward? Now at the moment, we're 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.240 not in Linina or in El Nino. You probably heard 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.040 of those things, especially al Ninho. Those are climate drivers. 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.000 We call that enso e nso ens sands for El 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:35.400 Nino Southern oscillation. 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.120 It basically means are we. 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.160 In El Nino, are you in lia Nina or what's 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:41.440 in the middle, which is neither. 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.440 Right now we're in neither. We're neutral. 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:47.200 However, we are coming out of Lininia, which was last summer, 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:51.040 and there is fore casts to be this Linina. I 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.840 don't want to call it a hangover, that be li 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:59.520 Ninia kind of tendencies, These Linina like conditions. The you know, 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.200 we got to we like to put things in nice 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.280 even bins and keep a clear cut in reality life 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.120 is not a light switch. It's a spectrum. 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:06.400 You know. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:08.960 It's not on or off. There's a lot of spots 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.480 between zero and one, on and off. And it's the 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.040 same thing with and so and lino self and oscillation. 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.600 So while technically we are in neutral, we're actually on 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.440 the Lainia side of neutral. Okay, well, what does that mean, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.000 Smark I. Well, typically when we have Lninia, we tend 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:27.840 to favor airflows coming from the northeast to the east, 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.200 the north somewhere in that direction, and that tends to 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:34.360 favor wetness for the eastern and northern North Island, tends 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.640 to favor dryness for the western part of both islands, 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.320 which is why we had that dryness and drought for 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.760 the western North Island. If we recall Tedanaki wat Cutha 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.680 were quite dry, even western parts of the South Fountain 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.440 that had a great summer. By the way, if you 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.800 talk to people in Westport, Hokitik in host A Fjordland, 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:55.080 great summer sunshine and warm temperatures, dry weather, and the 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:59.800 indications are that sort of airflow may be favored as 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.440 you work away into spring or summer. So this warm 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.880 theme may persist if our airflows don't come from a 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:07.360 coal direction, i e. 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:09.280 South or southwest, something. 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:13.400 Like that, and that may favor wetness for northern and 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:17.200 eastern parts of the country as we work away into 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:18.720 the spring and summer season. 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.520 Thanks for joining us, Chris, You're. 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.040 Welcome, Thanks for having me, and hopefully that was useful. 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.920 That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.760 can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:37.840 at enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.600 produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:46.400 our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.040 Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:54.880 tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.