1 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: Gielder. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. A 3 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: warmer winter is coming now. This means a few things. 4 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: Power bills might ease up for those of us who 5 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: are heated dependent during chilli. 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 2: Nights, which is a positive right. 7 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: However, these conditions won't be great for those heading away 8 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: for ski season. 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: And while the powfer jackets can stay in. 10 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: The wardrobe, perhaps those rain ones will be getting a 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: workout because with a warmer winter comes rain. Today on 12 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: the front Page, NIWA forecaster Chris Brandolino is with us 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: to give us a glimpse into what the weather might 14 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: look like in the months ahead. Chris, it felt like 15 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: we had a very wet autumn. Every week there was 16 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: some warning as thunderstorms or severe rainfall. 17 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: So exactly how wet was it, it depends on. 18 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 3: Where you were. 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 4: Now, look, we'll be issuing our Autumn Climate Summary, which 20 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 4: is a retrospective look at the autumn season. Marjor Abile 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 4: may not to come, I think later this week, let's 22 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 4: say maybe Thursday, believe, but just in the spirit of 23 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 4: a sneak peek for friends, it really depends on where 24 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 4: you were. So for example, Northland, you know, was quite wet, 25 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 4: So Kaitaya had one hundred and seventy five percent of 26 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 4: normal rainfall. Typically Kaitaya will get about three hundred and 27 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 4: thirty one millimeters of rain, but they had well over 28 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 4: five hundred millimeters of rainfall for the autumn season, so 29 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 4: it was. 30 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 3: Pretty wet there. 31 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 4: But look if you go to places in different parts 32 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 4: of the North Island. For example, if you were to 33 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 4: go to say mant Rupehu right at the chateau, they 34 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 4: only had two hundred and four millimeters, that's only a 35 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 4: third of what they normally get, so quite low rainfall there. Likewise, 36 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 4: and Thames they only had seventy six percent of normal. 37 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 4: But you're right, there were certainly a lot of places Nelson, 38 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 4: I'm just looking and scanning. I list in front of me, 39 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: over toward winch More and over toward Lincoln Broadfield, christ 40 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 4: Church had a pretty wet autumn and a lot of 41 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 4: that was off the heels of say one or two 42 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 4: big rain events. So yeah, it was certainly wet from 43 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 4: many areas of New Zealand for the autumn season, but 44 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 4: it was not wet everywhere was. 45 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: It unusual the places that did it experience a wet autumn. 46 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 1: I know autumn and winter can obviously be wet seasons, 47 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 1: but the severity of it in some places seemed a 48 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: little unusual. 49 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 5: Yeah. 50 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 4: Again, there were the big couple of big rain events 51 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 4: we had and that caused some flooding. Think of what 52 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 4: happened in Nelson with those downpours back in late May, 53 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 4: and that was a very short but sharp rain event, 54 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 4: and you know we had a lot of rainfall and 55 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 4: in just three or four hours we. 56 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 3: Had some flooding. 57 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 4: I think we had parts of Northland had some minor 58 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 4: to modest flooding going back to earlier in the autumn season. 59 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 4: So yeah, there were I don't think there were the 60 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 4: really high end rain events that caused significant flooding. We 61 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 4: did have the big rain events. That one event that 62 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 4: maybe is a standout in terms of flooding. So if 63 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 4: you remember Banks Peninsula and areas around christ Churts, they 64 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 4: had a state of emergency and they had you know, 65 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 4: I think one two times normal what they would typically 66 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 4: get in April, but it fell in basically a couple 67 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 4: of days, so you double the amount with falls in 68 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 4: thirty days but you're getting it in a couple of days, 69 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 4: and you know, we get some big problems. We had 70 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 4: the red warning for Wellington that was for the wind event, 71 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 4: so that wasn't really rain, that was a strong wind 72 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 4: event there. So yeah, so it was an active autumn, 73 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 4: but like a lot of times, it came and fits 74 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 4: and stops. We had some extended periods of dry weather. 75 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 4: We had dryness and drought going back to the late 76 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: summer early autumn in places like Tenanaki, places like southwest 77 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 4: Wakato and the Manawatu King Country had some pretty dry 78 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 4: conditions and some of those areas I've still seen dry 79 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 4: soils right now, particularly in the Manawatu region, and soils 80 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 4: are usually dry for the time of. 81 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 3: Year out of there. 82 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 6: Well, winter is upon us, but of course what can 83 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 6: we expect. You know what, you may need to buckle 84 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 6: your seatbelts. It could be a wild ride. There's going 85 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 6: to be a bit of everything into the mix. As 86 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 6: far as things go. We could have, of course, some 87 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 6: pretty good storms. We could have some cold outbreaks good 88 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 6: for the skiers, and we're going to get some fine 89 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 6: days as well. When we look at the atmosphere, there's 90 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 6: going to be lots of variety, so we're going to 91 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 6: mix things around. It's like some flour, some extra sugar, 92 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 6: mix it round, and some spice and bomb you get 93 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 6: all those things going on. Warmer than normal. 94 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: So let's look ahead to winter. 95 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,919 Speaker 1: I've sayen that it's going to be warmer than usual 96 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: but still quite wet. 97 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 2: So what sort of weather systems are we looking at here? 98 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're right, a couple of ways to answer that. 99 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 4: So in summary, we are expecting a warmer than average 100 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 4: winter as a whole. Now I'm using my words carefully 101 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 4: as a whole, because if you've seen the weather predictions 102 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,840 Speaker 4: for later this weekend, the weekend, there's going to be 103 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 4: a significant cold snap, and you know, you maybe think, well, 104 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 4: Juice christ you said it was going to be warmer 105 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 4: than average winter, how come WI is it going to 106 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 4: be so cold this weekend? 107 00:04:58,320 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 3: Well, both can be true. 108 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 4: That's because we give a three month outlook, not a 109 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 4: three day outlook. So a three month outlook there is 110 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 4: a lot of water to pass under that bridge. And 111 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 4: this is just one weekend of thirteen for the winter season, right, 112 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 4: So we are expecting this pretty big cold snap Friday, 113 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 4: Saturday and Sunday, and that may come with some snow. 114 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: To low levels. 115 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 4: We'll see Even if the snow to low levels or 116 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 4: a meaningful amount of snow to low levels does not 117 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 4: occur Friday into Saturday, it will be darn cold with 118 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 4: squally day on Friday, with showers and thunderstorms, maybe some hail. 119 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 4: But unfortunately, if you're a skier or a snow enthusiast, 120 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 4: or feel like cold temperatures for that matter, I don't 121 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 4: think that cold snap that we're going to see from 122 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 4: Friday into the weekend is going to have much staying 123 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: power and we're probably gonna warm back up. 124 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: And that will be the theme for the winter season. 125 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 4: That is, yes, we'll get cold snaps, but we're probably 126 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 4: gonna get less of them than what is typical, and 127 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,799 Speaker 4: that is because we're expecting air flows for the winter 128 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 4: season less. So look, you don't have to be ANEWA meteorologists, 129 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 4: you don't have to be a rocket scientist. You know 130 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 4: it ain't gonna get cold if you don't have a 131 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 4: cold wind direction. It's very simple in that regard. Now, 132 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 4: the trick, of course, is trying to isolate and determine 133 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 4: and pick what is that overall wind direction wind to 134 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 4: being that can be challenging. Our sense is that yeah, 135 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 4: there will be souther least, but they're going to be 136 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 4: more infrequent than usual, so we're not gonna see a 137 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 4: lot of them. We'll see more northeast and northwest winds 138 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 4: than usual. So again, more northeast and northwest winds than 139 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 4: usual doesn't mean every day, every week, every you know, 140 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 4: month or hour of the winter. It just means more 141 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 4: than what is typical and that will drive temperatures up. Also, 142 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 4: our ocean temperatures are running warmer than average around New Zealand, 143 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 4: and that means it'll be hard to sustain for long 144 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 4: cold snaps. The one we're going to see this this 145 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 4: upcoming late week and especially this weekend which may kind 146 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 4: of sneak into Monday, that will last three or four 147 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 4: days or so. But you know, we're not going to 148 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 4: see these cold snaps that last you know, six, seven, eight, 149 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 4: nine days. 150 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 3: It's just not going to happen. Be very unlikely anyway, should. 151 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: Say, yeah, when we speak about a warmer winter, I'm Australian, 152 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: so I think anything under eighteen is cold. Sure, So 153 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: so what kind of temperatures are we talking when we're 154 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: saying it's warmer than usual. 155 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 4: It depends, like it depends on where you are, what 156 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 4: you call home. But just by way of example, the 157 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 4: winter average, So this is like, this is a lot 158 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 4: of assumption. So we're taking we're a we're smoothing things 159 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 4: out over three months, right, and we all know how 160 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 4: there can be variability. Look, this is a climate I'm 161 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: going to answer your question. Just give me a second. 162 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 4: This is a climate Outlook, what we're attempting to do 163 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 4: is predict Mother Nature's personality over a three month period. Right, 164 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 4: weather is Mother Nature's mood. Now, if if we if 165 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 4: we kind of get mother Nature's personality correct or at 166 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 4: least in the right direction, on more days than not, 167 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 4: the mood will align itself with the personality. But in 168 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 4: some days it won't. So there's a lot of Smoothingess 169 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 4: what I'm saying now, The typical mean temperature that's the 170 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 4: average for say Auckland for the winter season is eleven 171 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 4: point six degrees. So that means if you take the 172 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 4: high and the low for each day during winter and 173 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 4: you add it up and divide by what it's in 174 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 4: ninety one days or whatever, the number of days is 175 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 4: you would get eleven point six. What we're saying is 176 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 4: that the mean temperature for the winter season, our expectation 177 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 4: is to be higher than that. Now, for Kaitaya it's 178 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 4: twelve and a half degrees, but for Dunedin it's seven 179 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 4: point three. For christ Church it's about seven and a 180 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 4: half seven point four. So what we're saying is that 181 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 4: for the winter season, our expectation is that where we 182 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 4: land come September first winter is in the rearview mirror, 183 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 4: the mean temperature will be higher than that. But that 184 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 4: can come in many ways, you know, just like I 185 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 4: can tell you if you run a business right and 186 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 4: I say, hey, for the next three months for the winter, 187 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 4: you're going to have above average profits, You're like, sweet, awesome. 188 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 4: But does that mean every weekend is going to be 189 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 4: above average profits? 190 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 6: No. 191 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 4: That could come in the form of one really crazy 192 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 4: month where your profits are just out of control. You 193 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 4: have crazy good profits for one month, and then the 194 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 4: second month maybe. 195 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 3: They're about average. 196 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 4: They're okay, they're not great, they're not awesome, they're okay, 197 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 4: and then the third month are below average. But guess what, 198 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 4: because that first month was so extraordinary high with profits 199 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 4: that really swamped out or muted out the other two 200 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 4: months which did have a factor, but when it all 201 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 4: came out in the wash, it was still above average. 202 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 3: Profits same before their temperature. 203 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 4: We could have one month where it's so exceptionally warm 204 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 4: that the other two months, I don't want to say 205 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 4: almost don't matter, but they become less relevant in terms 206 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 4: of trying to influence what that final number is. So 207 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 4: this is a longer term outlook, and these outlooks are 208 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 4: trying to identify themes, and that theme is for warmer 209 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 4: than average temperatures, and these things can be hard to communicate, 210 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 4: and for someone listening to this, they can be like, 211 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 4: what the. 212 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 3: Heck does that mean? How can I make a decision? 213 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 4: Well, what it means is that if we're going to 214 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 4: see less cold snaps now, less cold snaps is not 215 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 4: zero cold snaps, I e. What will happen this weekend. 216 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 4: Maybe it means you're run your heater less frequently. Okay, 217 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 4: Maybe it means that you can enjoy more days outside 218 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 4: and not be so cold more days than usual. Anyway, 219 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 4: Maybe it means if you're a snow enthusiast, if you're 220 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 4: a snowboarder, if you're a skied Well, maybe that means 221 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 4: you're simply not going to have a great season. Potentially, 222 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 4: I think the North Island ski fields maybe especially challenged. 223 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 4: We'll see what happens for the South Island ski fields. 224 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 4: Warmer than average winter for South Island ski fields, well, 225 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 4: if you're high enough in the altitude, it could still 226 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 4: be warmer than average, but still. 227 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 3: Cold enough for snow. 228 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 5: In Europe had to use helicopters and trucks to carry 229 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,439 Speaker 5: snow to the Bear slopes in order to stay open, 230 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 5: and in Japan, energy costs were so high that they 231 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 5: had to keep the machinery shut down and just wait 232 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 5: for natural snow to fall down the sky. Snow cover 233 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 5: is projected to shrink globally as the planet worms, So 234 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 5: this is a challenging future for ski resorts. 235 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,079 Speaker 1: How concerning is it that the temperatures will be kind 236 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: of warmer than usual? Is that another sign of climate 237 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: change or does it just happen in every now and again? 238 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, both are true. 239 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 4: Look, grass will grow by itself, right throwing fertilizer, that's 240 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 4: a much different story and it can overcome a lot. 241 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 4: Same thing with athletes. Athletes are high performing, they're talented, people. 242 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 4: You give them HDH or steroids, they can perform a 243 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 4: lot better. Look, climate change doesn't cause extreme weather. Here's 244 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 4: what climate change does three simple things. It makes extreme 245 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 4: events more likely. It makes extreme events, extreme weather events, 246 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 4: more frequent, and it makes them more extreme, more likely, 247 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 4: more frequent, more extreme. I didn't say it creates them. 248 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 4: It does not create them because this has always happened 249 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 4: in the past. We've always had extreme events. And what 250 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 4: is an extreme event. It could be too much rain, 251 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 4: too little rain, both ends of the spectrum, really high temperatures, 252 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 4: really active weather. So climate change because of a warmer 253 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 4: earth that energizes the atmosphere, and you tend to hit 254 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 4: those extremes more likely to hit them, more frequent, and 255 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 4: those extremes can be more well extreme. How concerning is it? Well, 256 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 4: warmer than usual winters, it's become almost background noise because 257 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are used to hearing it, 258 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 4: at least that's my sense. Maybe I'm wrong, and what 259 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:47,359 Speaker 4: happens is that something maybe it becomes normalized. But in reality, 260 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 4: when we see warmer than average conditions and you see 261 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 4: the trend, that's the concerning part is you see how 262 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 4: these are becoming more common and more frequent. So look, unfortunately, 263 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 4: when in twenty twenty five, if it turns out to 264 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: be warmer than average as a whole, Again, that's over 265 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 4: a three month period when you're smoothing out the peaks 266 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 4: in the valleys, When you compare it to a winter, 267 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 4: and say two thousand and ninety, so twenty ninety, that 268 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 4: may actually be a cool winter. So in other words, 269 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 4: if you take winter twenty twenty five, if it turns 270 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 4: out to be warmer than usual, and you hop pop 271 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 4: it into a time machine and you exit that said 272 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 4: time machine, and you're in the year two thousand and 273 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 4: ninety and you're armed with winter twenty twenty five, odds 274 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 4: are that'll be a cool winter. 275 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: And finally, Chris, I know that we always ask you 276 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: this when you're wrong, but can you look into your 277 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: crystal bowl and do we know anything about what spring 278 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 1: and summer might look like yet? 279 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 3: Dark nights, bright days? Does that work? Yeah? 280 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 4: Look, when you're going out several months, three months, that's 281 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 4: a challenge. But when you go out six nine months, 282 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 4: you can imagine that's even more challenging. So the short 283 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 4: answer there is there's a little bit of insight. The 284 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 4: longer answer is what you need to do where a 285 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 4: person like myself who's in this sort of business, is 286 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 4: you try to identify a climate driver, and we do 287 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 4: this with even our three month outlooks and a climate 288 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 4: driver basically as well, who's at the steering with Mother 289 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 4: Nature's car? Who's driving the car? If you know who's 290 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 4: driving the car, odds, are you know which direction you're 291 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 4: gonna favor or lean toward? Now at the moment, we're 292 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 4: not in Linina or in El Nino. You probably heard 293 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 4: of those things, especially al Ninho. Those are climate drivers. 294 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 4: We call that enso e nso ens sands for El 295 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 4: Nino Southern oscillation. 296 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 3: It basically means are we. 297 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 4: In El Nino, are you in lia Nina or what's 298 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 4: in the middle, which is neither. 299 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 3: Right now we're in neither. We're neutral. 300 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 4: However, we are coming out of Lininia, which was last summer, 301 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 4: and there is fore casts to be this Linina. I 302 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 4: don't want to call it a hangover, that be li 303 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 4: Ninia kind of tendencies, These Linina like conditions. The you know, 304 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 4: we got to we like to put things in nice 305 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 4: even bins and keep a clear cut in reality life 306 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 4: is not a light switch. It's a spectrum. 307 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 3: You know. 308 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 4: It's not on or off. There's a lot of spots 309 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 4: between zero and one, on and off. And it's the 310 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 4: same thing with and so and lino self and oscillation. 311 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 4: So while technically we are in neutral, we're actually on 312 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 4: the Lainia side of neutral. Okay, well, what does that mean, 313 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 4: Smark I. Well, typically when we have Lninia, we tend 314 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 4: to favor airflows coming from the northeast to the east, 315 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 4: the north somewhere in that direction, and that tends to 316 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 4: favor wetness for the eastern and northern North Island, tends 317 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 4: to favor dryness for the western part of both islands, 318 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 4: which is why we had that dryness and drought for 319 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 4: the western North Island. If we recall Tedanaki wat Cutha 320 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 4: were quite dry, even western parts of the South Fountain 321 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 4: that had a great summer. By the way, if you 322 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 4: talk to people in Westport, Hokitik in host A Fjordland, 323 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 4: great summer sunshine and warm temperatures, dry weather, and the 324 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 4: indications are that sort of airflow may be favored as 325 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 4: you work away into spring or summer. So this warm 326 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 4: theme may persist if our airflows don't come from a 327 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 4: coal direction, i e. 328 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 3: South or southwest, something. 329 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 4: Like that, and that may favor wetness for northern and 330 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 4: eastern parts of the country as we work away into 331 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 4: the spring and summer season. 332 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Chris, You're. 333 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 3: Welcome, Thanks for having me, and hopefully that was useful. 334 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 335 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 336 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is 337 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 338 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front 339 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 340 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.