WEBVTT - Geoffrey Miller: Concerns that Israel's attacks on Iran will continue 0:00:05.761 --> 0:00:09.441 You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks, 0:00:09.521 --> 0:00:10.681 EDB and. 0:00:10.801 --> 0:00:14.561 Yes Yesterday, Our time, about now. Actually twenty four hours ago, 0:00:14.601 --> 0:00:18.401 the Israeli Defense Force carried out multiple strikes on Iranian 0:00:18.561 --> 0:00:22.881 military targets, killing four soldiers. Israel's army has said the 0:00:22.921 --> 0:00:26.961 attacks are in retaliation to continuous attacks from Iran. The 0:00:27.001 --> 0:00:31.241 President of the United States, Joe Biden, says someone optimistically, 0:00:31.241 --> 0:00:34.041 I think that he's hopeful that this will mark the 0:00:34.161 --> 0:00:38.441 end of a month's long cycle of escalation, but many 0:00:38.481 --> 0:00:40.761 experts are concerned this is going to worsen the conflict. 0:00:41.041 --> 0:00:46.001 And with me now is geopolitical analyst Jeffrey Miller Jeffrey Good. 0:00:45.841 --> 0:00:47.961 Afternoon, Good afternoon, Tim. 0:00:48.761 --> 0:00:51.401 Was this a valid response from Israel? 0:00:53.001 --> 0:00:55.601 Well, Israel will see it that way. It was a 0:00:55.601 --> 0:01:01.841 carefully calibrated response. It targeted mainly military sites in Iran, 0:01:02.201 --> 0:01:05.241 around twenty different sites and three different locations, so it 0:01:05.281 --> 0:01:08.641 was significant. But what it did not do was target 0:01:08.721 --> 0:01:11.401 oil facilities or nuclear facilities. And there's been a lot 0:01:11.441 --> 0:01:14.761 of talk and concern that Israel would seek to do 0:01:14.841 --> 0:01:18.121 that would seek to undertake a large scale a strike, 0:01:18.441 --> 0:01:22.921 just given what Israel's been doing particularly in Lebanon in 0:01:22.961 --> 0:01:25.881 the last few months, we just had every reason to 0:01:25.921 --> 0:01:28.801 think that with the large scale response from Israel, I 0:01:28.841 --> 0:01:31.521 think there was a significant response, and in the wider context, 0:01:31.561 --> 0:01:36.441 it was a very big response by Israel yesterday. But 0:01:37.001 --> 0:01:39.761 I think Israel also to some degree stepped back from 0:01:39.801 --> 0:01:42.841 the brink here and it didn't go for that for 0:01:42.961 --> 0:01:47.521 those nuclear facilities, oil facilities because of UIs pressure behind 0:01:47.521 --> 0:01:50.561 the scenes, and I think Ben and men who decided 0:01:50.601 --> 0:01:54.001 to just step back a little bit and not go 0:01:54.441 --> 0:01:54.881 too far. 0:01:55.641 --> 0:01:58.281 What was it specifically in retaliation too, in terms of 0:01:58.281 --> 0:02:01.681 what Iran had been doing, because that's part a bunch 0:02:01.721 --> 0:02:03.001 of missiles at Israel, aren't they. 0:02:03.641 --> 0:02:05.361 That's right. Looks hard for everyone to keep keep up 0:02:05.401 --> 0:02:08.881 here because we've had so many exactly so many responses 0:02:08.881 --> 0:02:12.601 and counter responses and rounds of escalation this year. It's 0:02:12.601 --> 0:02:16.281 hard for anyone to keep up. But yesterday's strikes by 0:02:16.361 --> 0:02:20.481 Israel were in direct response to an attack by Iran 0:02:20.921 --> 0:02:24.001 on Israel on the first of October, in which Iran 0:02:24.081 --> 0:02:27.841 sent around one hundred and eighty ballistic missiles towards Israel 0:02:27.961 --> 0:02:33.401 and did some significant damage on Israeli military facilities. It 0:02:33.401 --> 0:02:38.401 was more significant than actually was publicized immediately after those strikes, 0:02:38.641 --> 0:02:42.881 and so that was what Israel was responding to yesterday. 0:02:43.081 --> 0:02:46.641 And in the past month or so, the Israel Israel 0:02:46.681 --> 0:02:51.401 has been given the use of a new defense air 0:02:51.441 --> 0:02:54.801 defense system from the United States, a very advancedment called FAD. 0:02:55.481 --> 0:02:59.641 And there's some suggestion, you know, no hard evidence, but 0:03:00.081 --> 0:03:02.721 that that might have been part of the deal. The 0:03:02.841 --> 0:03:05.881 US supplied a more high tech edense system there's only 0:03:05.881 --> 0:03:09.321 six of them in the world to Israel, and in response, 0:03:09.441 --> 0:03:12.481 Israel did not go for the jugular with yesterday with 0:03:12.561 --> 0:03:15.801 Iran and undertook a more moderate response. And one might expected. 0:03:15.921 --> 0:03:17.961 What's the name of that their defense system again. 0:03:18.521 --> 0:03:21.641 It's it's called farn THHAA D is an acronym. Don't 0:03:21.681 --> 0:03:24.321 don't ask me to spell out all the words. That 0:03:24.401 --> 0:03:27.281 something begins with terminal and then high altitude. 0:03:27.321 --> 0:03:29.881 There are terminal high altitude defense. 0:03:30.001 --> 0:03:31.721 Yeah, yeah, I think something like that. 0:03:31.801 --> 0:03:36.161 Is that something that's like the iron dime two point 0:03:36.281 --> 0:03:37.921 zero or is it something completely different? 0:03:38.921 --> 0:03:41.441 I think it's it's it's that on that spectrum. I 0:03:41.481 --> 0:03:43.361 so there are only half a dozen of them in 0:03:43.401 --> 0:03:45.761 the world. There was one station number of years ago 0:03:45.801 --> 0:03:50.201 in South Korea that really angered China quite significantly. So 0:03:50.281 --> 0:03:52.721 it's clearly got an awful lot of capability. It's got 0:03:52.721 --> 0:03:57.081 a lot of high tech radar capability, and you know, 0:03:57.161 --> 0:03:59.721 in some ways it's surprising that hasn't been stationed in 0:03:59.761 --> 0:04:03.241 Israel already, but it just shows that the thread is 0:04:03.321 --> 0:04:07.201 quite severe from Israel's perspective, and they've showed themselves up 0:04:07.201 --> 0:04:10.241 with that new system. Perhaps in exchange, they didn't as 0:04:10.241 --> 0:04:13.481 if they undertake a more widespread of attack yesterday. 0:04:13.561 --> 0:04:15.921 Because Iran has its only a defense system. How much 0:04:15.961 --> 0:04:18.881 of the of Israel's attack was actually repelled. Do we 0:04:18.881 --> 0:04:20.801 know what sort of proportion of missiles got through? 0:04:21.681 --> 0:04:25.921 I think very little. I mean, Israel's technology is you know, 0:04:26.321 --> 0:04:30.641 it is very very it's a very high standard, and 0:04:30.681 --> 0:04:36.161 that's because it's largely developed in coordination with the United States, 0:04:36.201 --> 0:04:38.241 and they have one of the most advanced militaries, if 0:04:38.281 --> 0:04:41.081 not the most advanced military in the world. Iran simply 0:04:41.121 --> 0:04:45.241 does not. So Israel did significant damage to air defense 0:04:45.241 --> 0:04:48.481 facilities in Iran yesterday, going by the reports, and that 0:04:48.561 --> 0:04:51.841 will be significant if Israel wants to undertake future attacks. 0:04:52.161 --> 0:04:56.161 Iran's air defense systems have been knocked out effectively, and 0:04:56.361 --> 0:04:58.641 yes they'll they'll rebuild them, no doubt, but that will 0:04:58.641 --> 0:05:01.961 take time. And that's what's what's in it for Israel. 0:05:02.081 --> 0:05:03.401 Well, I guess there are two ways of I mean 0:05:03.401 --> 0:05:04.841 from a layman's point of view, there's two ways of 0:05:04.881 --> 0:05:06.441 life looking at it. That they've softened up the air 0:05:06.481 --> 0:05:08.881 defenses so they can have another crack at them. But 0:05:10.041 --> 0:05:12.441 one might argue they've softened up the air defense system 0:05:13.281 --> 0:05:16.681 so they can simply say no more from you, Otherwise 0:05:16.761 --> 0:05:18.041 we're going to hit your harder and you won't be 0:05:18.041 --> 0:05:20.801 able to defend yourself. What is. 0:05:22.681 --> 0:05:26.161 I think as both of those A true term certainly, 0:05:26.241 --> 0:05:29.201 I mean that those attacks yesterday by Israel, they're destroyed 0:05:29.721 --> 0:05:34.801 missile production, missile launch facilities, air defense facilities. You know, 0:05:34.841 --> 0:05:40.361 this is significant in deterring future strikes by Iran. It's 0:05:40.401 --> 0:05:43.761 not crippling in the sense because it didn't go for 0:05:44.441 --> 0:05:47.281 you know, some of them, as I say, those other targets. 0:05:47.921 --> 0:05:50.921 It won't lead to a full scale war. Iran has 0:05:50.961 --> 0:05:55.361 played down the attacks, saying there's only limited damage, so 0:05:55.481 --> 0:05:59.201 they're not looking to undertake another round of retaliation here 0:05:59.201 --> 0:06:02.561 against Israel. And it's to everyone's benefit. And we've seen 0:06:02.601 --> 0:06:04.561 an awful lot of escalation in the Middle East over 0:06:04.601 --> 0:06:07.081 the past year, and I think it will do everyone 0:06:07.201 --> 0:06:09.201 good to take a breath and step back for a moment. 0:06:09.241 --> 0:06:12.801 And I think we need to go for diplomacy, dialogue 0:06:12.841 --> 0:06:15.801 de escalation here, and that's something that many countries have 0:06:15.881 --> 0:06:18.441 been working on over the past year. You know, it's 0:06:18.521 --> 0:06:22.481 all started with Gaza, it's expanded to Lebanon, to Syria, 0:06:22.521 --> 0:06:25.961 to Iran, to Iran. We all need to step back 0:06:26.001 --> 0:06:30.361 here and what's been happening. We've just seen a wave 0:06:30.441 --> 0:06:33.521 after wave of escalation and I think if anything we've 0:06:33.561 --> 0:06:35.921 learned anything over the past year is the escalation simply 0:06:35.961 --> 0:06:39.801 forgets more escalation. And sadly, I you know, we've got 0:06:39.881 --> 0:06:42.521 to look at the wider context as well. With an 0:06:42.601 --> 0:06:45.521 US election just around the corner, and you know, if 0:06:45.521 --> 0:06:48.281 the polls are right, Donald Trump is in the box 0:06:48.321 --> 0:06:52.361 seat to win those He is very anti Iran in 0:06:52.401 --> 0:06:56.161 his views and very much against Iran's nuclear program. I 0:06:56.241 --> 0:07:00.481 just wonder whether ben Aminetno's waiting and seeing look, Trump's 0:07:00.481 --> 0:07:02.361 in the box seat to win this selection. Let's do 0:07:02.441 --> 0:07:05.041 something bigger. On the other side of November, the. 0:07:05.441 --> 0:07:07.321 Well so Biden City t hope a little mark the 0:07:07.401 --> 0:07:09.281 end of a month's long cycle of escalation. 0:07:10.041 --> 0:07:12.961 What's your view, Well, look, I think you're a very 0:07:13.041 --> 0:07:16.401 brave person to think this is ever the end. We've 0:07:16.441 --> 0:07:19.041 just seen just wave and wave of escalation over the 0:07:19.081 --> 0:07:21.081 past year. If you just think where this all began 0:07:21.601 --> 0:07:23.841 on October the seventh, twenty twenty three, and where we 0:07:23.881 --> 0:07:28.361 are now, you know, we've gone from being just about 0:07:28.401 --> 0:07:33.001 Gaza to being about Lebanon has Bella. Who've seen just 0:07:33.161 --> 0:07:35.361 escalation throughout the Middle East no matter where you look. 0:07:35.481 --> 0:07:38.361 Israel says it's fighting a seventh front war because when 0:07:38.401 --> 0:07:42.721 you count up all the enemies it's facing from the 0:07:43.241 --> 0:07:49.121 Hooties in Yemen through to the West Bank, Syria, ir Araan, Lebanon, Gaza, 0:07:49.161 --> 0:07:51.761 you end up with seven fronts. And that's the situation 0:07:51.921 --> 0:07:56.441 we're in now. We're in a wider regional war. So yes, 0:07:56.721 --> 0:07:59.681 things could have been worse yesterday, But you know, I 0:07:59.721 --> 0:08:01.761 think they're bad enough as they are, and I think 0:08:01.761 --> 0:08:04.641 we need to just keep steaking out in favor of 0:08:04.681 --> 0:08:08.601 the de escalation routes. Apparently there are more ceasefire talks underway, 0:08:08.601 --> 0:08:11.041 and Doha again with Gaza, and I think we just 0:08:11.081 --> 0:08:13.401 need to go back to the political solutions because you 0:08:13.441 --> 0:08:16.321 won't solve this conflict with the military response. 0:08:16.521 --> 0:08:19.081 Do you think that Iran will respond. 0:08:20.121 --> 0:08:22.721 For now? I don't think they have plans to. From 0:08:22.721 --> 0:08:26.681 the messaging that's coming out, they're saying limited damage, saying 0:08:26.721 --> 0:08:30.041 that their Israeli response was weak. They had regular programming 0:08:30.041 --> 0:08:32.521 on state TV. They're not hyping things out, sort of 0:08:32.521 --> 0:08:36.161 brushing it off. Yeah, well, I think real damage was 0:08:36.201 --> 0:08:38.841 done to the military facilities, but they're not looking to 0:08:38.881 --> 0:08:41.401 make a big thing of it, which you would expect 0:08:41.401 --> 0:08:45.801 if they were planning on undertaking yet another round of retaliation. 0:08:46.081 --> 0:08:48.801 But remember this is the second tips attack, the escalation 0:08:48.841 --> 0:08:52.321 we've seen this year. The direct confrontation between Israel and 0:08:52.321 --> 0:08:54.161 Iran was one back in April, so it was only 0:08:54.201 --> 0:08:56.641 six months ago. So I think the way we should 0:08:56.681 --> 0:08:58.681 probably say this, you know, the current round is over, 0:08:58.761 --> 0:09:02.081 but there will be sadly, almost certainly future rounds of 0:09:02.201 --> 0:09:06.841 escalation unless we diffuse all of this through political solutions. 0:09:06.961 --> 0:09:09.681 Well, I was going to I was gonna, well, I 0:09:09.681 --> 0:09:13.041 am going to ask you. It feels like a rhetorical 0:09:13.121 --> 0:09:15.561 question because I almost think that there's the answer is no. 0:09:15.681 --> 0:09:18.881 But anyway, would return of the hostages make any difference? 0:09:18.881 --> 0:09:18.961 So? 0:09:19.081 --> 0:09:20.681 Or are we well beyond that now? 0:09:22.161 --> 0:09:24.001 I think it would make some difference. I mean a 0:09:24.401 --> 0:09:26.641 return of the hostages as part of a cease fire deal. 0:09:26.721 --> 0:09:29.521 I think a cees fire and Gaza would be fantastic. 0:09:29.561 --> 0:09:33.441 I think cees fire and Lebanon would be fantastic. Israel 0:09:33.521 --> 0:09:35.761 has met an awful lot of its objectives by now, 0:09:35.961 --> 0:09:40.161 and you go back to April, Joe Biden told Vinamayahnah 0:09:40.321 --> 0:09:44.161 to take the win after the round of escalation then 0:09:44.321 --> 0:09:46.801 with Iran, and I think perhaps those words take the 0:09:46.801 --> 0:09:49.841 wind should be the message to Israel right now, just 0:09:49.881 --> 0:09:53.561 given what's happened. They've killed Yahya Sinhwa, the head of 0:09:53.761 --> 0:09:57.481 Hamas and Gaza. They've killed Ismail Hanair, the political leader 0:09:57.601 --> 0:09:59.801 from US. They've killed Tassanas brother, the leader of his 0:09:59.921 --> 0:10:03.561 the Llah. They've caused an awful lot of damage in 0:10:03.881 --> 0:10:07.721 Lebanon and Gaza. Forty two thousand people in Gaza have 0:10:07.761 --> 0:10:10.161 been killed, two and a half thousand and Elebanon. At 0:10:10.161 --> 0:10:12.721 some point, I think you need to quote unquote take 0:10:12.721 --> 0:10:15.961 the win and just stop and go for a political solution. 0:10:16.361 --> 0:10:18.921 Go for cease fires, go for diplomacy. I think that 0:10:18.921 --> 0:10:22.161 should be the message for Benamantno, who right now, I'm 0:10:22.161 --> 0:10:23.961 not sure if he's willing to hear it. I think 0:10:24.161 --> 0:10:26.601 he's looking ahead and he's seeing Donald Trump is in 0:10:26.641 --> 0:10:28.161 the block seat to be in the White House, and 0:10:28.201 --> 0:10:31.321 an awful lot more could play out under a Trump presidency, 0:10:31.321 --> 0:10:31.921 that's for sure. 0:10:32.561 --> 0:10:36.121 All right. So do you think that if Trump didn't 0:10:36.161 --> 0:10:38.121 doesn't make the White House that there is more of 0:10:38.161 --> 0:10:41.881 a prospect of success in a securing peace. 0:10:43.321 --> 0:10:46.441 Well, yes, and Noah, because Joe Biden certainly hasn't been 0:10:46.561 --> 0:10:50.041 very successful over the past year overall, and in convincing 0:10:50.321 --> 0:10:53.761 Ben Mietno to set a step back, I don't think 0:10:53.801 --> 0:10:56.161 there's any guarantee at all that Kamala Harris would be 0:10:56.241 --> 0:11:02.481 more successful with Ben at all. So, yeah, the situation 0:11:02.601 --> 0:11:04.601 is pretty bleak. But yet I think we always have 0:11:04.681 --> 0:11:07.561 to be We have to be even as when it 0:11:07.561 --> 0:11:09.361 seems so bligue. We have to be hopeful, we have 0:11:09.401 --> 0:11:12.281 to be optimistic. We have to keep trying for peace 0:11:12.321 --> 0:11:14.801 and keep trying that diplomatic route. And I do think 0:11:14.801 --> 0:11:17.041 New z Eden can play. It's just a small part, 0:11:17.081 --> 0:11:20.441 but a significant part in that global picture, and I 0:11:20.481 --> 0:11:22.721 think Winston Peters would do well to head to the 0:11:22.721 --> 0:11:24.441 Middle East at some point. He's only had a very 0:11:24.441 --> 0:11:26.881 brief stop in the Middle East over the past year. 0:11:26.961 --> 0:11:29.441 I think New z Eden could play a small part 0:11:29.481 --> 0:11:32.361 in those overall piece efforts by working together with friends 0:11:32.361 --> 0:11:34.961 and partners in the Middle East and outside the region, get. 0:11:34.761 --> 0:11:36.401 Winston to go, they give him a good telling off. 0:11:36.561 --> 0:11:39.841 Just one last cynical question, letting Yahoo up. And before 0:11:39.921 --> 0:11:43.081 all this happened, was facing corruption charges? Is there? And 0:11:43.241 --> 0:11:45.601 cynically speaking, if I was just having a cup of 0:11:45.601 --> 0:11:47.041 coffee with someone, I'd say, well, he's not going to 0:11:47.121 --> 0:11:50.121 resolve it because as soon as everything's over, he's in trouble. 0:11:50.161 --> 0:11:52.641 So it's it's almost an his vested interest to continue 0:11:52.641 --> 0:11:54.561 with this stuff, isn't it. 0:11:54.561 --> 0:11:58.081 It absolutely is. Indeed, the day the war ends, Beniminnea, 0:11:58.121 --> 0:12:01.041 who's career ends effectively and he goes back to fighting 0:12:01.081 --> 0:12:04.481 all these corruption charges, I think from anything's perspective, he's 0:12:04.481 --> 0:12:08.121 probably that he's redeemed himself. There was that huge security 0:12:08.161 --> 0:12:11.441 failure over October the seventh that allowed that massive attack 0:12:11.481 --> 0:12:15.321 by hamas On on Israel, but since then, particularly the 0:12:15.401 --> 0:12:20.001 various assassinations of the leadership of Hamas and his Billah, 0:12:20.881 --> 0:12:24.041 the destruction of so many his BLA facilities in Lebanon 0:12:24.081 --> 0:12:28.161 and de Route and his BELA infrastructure and south southern Lebanon, 0:12:28.401 --> 0:12:31.841 the destruction of Hamas and Gaza. You know, he probably 0:12:31.841 --> 0:12:35.241 feels he's redeemed himself, but yet he is only going 0:12:35.281 --> 0:12:38.481 to face an awful lot of trouble if he resigns 0:12:38.601 --> 0:12:42.201 or is sacked as PM. So he's got every reason 0:12:42.241 --> 0:12:45.481 to continue for as long as as humanly possible. I mean, 0:12:45.881 --> 0:12:49.321 I think he's seventy five now, so he probably feels 0:12:49.321 --> 0:12:52.921 that he's still got a lot, a lot, a lot 0:12:52.961 --> 0:12:53.481 to play for. 0:12:53.641 --> 0:12:55.801 Taken him out in the box. Hey, Jeffrey, I really 0:12:55.801 --> 0:12:58.201 appreciate your time this afternoon. Thanks so much for your insight. 0:12:58.921 --> 0:12:59.921 He very welcome to him. 0:12:59.961 --> 0:13:02.201 Yeah, we got thanks that as Jeffrey mill here is 0:13:02.201 --> 0:13:06.481 a geopolitical analyst, and yeah, actually that's fascinating and fascinating 0:13:06.481 --> 0:13:07.601 insights into the whole thing. 0:13:08.401 --> 0:13:11.161 For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News 0:13:11.201 --> 0:13:14.841 Talk ZEDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast 0:13:14.921 --> 0:13:15.881 on iHeartRadio.