WEBVTT - Trump pauses tariffs for some countries as he ramps up China trade war

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<v Speaker 1>Yelda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is a bonus episode

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<v Speaker 1>of The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand Herald. A week after announcing his Liberation Day

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs and causing global market chaos, US President Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has done a one eighty. He has announced on social

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<v Speaker 1>media that he has paused tariffs against seventy five countries

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<v Speaker 1>for ninety days, but has doubled down on a trade

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<v Speaker 1>wark with China, announcing a one hundred and twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>percent tariff on goods from the country. US stocks rocketed

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<v Speaker 1>higher after the declaration. The S and P five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>posted its best day since two thousand and eight, the

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<v Speaker 1>Nasdaq its best day.

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<v Speaker 2>Since two thousand and one.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's behind the sudden backtrack and what could all

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<v Speaker 1>of this mean for New Zealand?

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<v Speaker 2>Today?

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<v Speaker 1>On the Front Page, Where's Your Waned once again by

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<v Speaker 1>Nsitt Herald Business Editor at Large, Liam Dan.

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<v Speaker 2>Liam, we only caught.

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<v Speaker 1>Up with you a few days ago on tariffs, and

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<v Speaker 1>here we are again. Did you expect there would be

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<v Speaker 1>such a backtrack so quickly? And what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>motivated this decision?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I've given up expecting or not expecting things out

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<v Speaker 3>of the current scenario then the current US president, so

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<v Speaker 3>anything was possible, and it was never clear to what

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<v Speaker 3>extent these tariffs were a negotiating tactic. There was a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of messaging from the White House that they were

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<v Speaker 3>dead serious, but really what's happened is he's had to backtrack,

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<v Speaker 3>except for China so far because of the financial market

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<v Speaker 3>reaction and not so much just the share market sell off,

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<v Speaker 3>which was bad enough, but what we've seen in bond

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<v Speaker 3>markets in the last twenty four hours seems to be

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<v Speaker 3>the real reason that they've backed down.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So when we're all looking at share markets and

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the SMP and the NASDA and everything, what

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<v Speaker 1>was happening with bonds.

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<v Speaker 3>In the wake of the initial announcement. There was so

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<v Speaker 3>much fear that we're heading into a recession and things

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<v Speaker 3>that the bond yields actually fell that the standard model

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<v Speaker 3>was that when we say bond yields, we're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>effectively the interest rate on debt. So bonds are a

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<v Speaker 3>product that is effectively sold, is that they're the debt market.

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<v Speaker 3>The bond market is the debt market for the world.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a something crazy like one hundred and thirty trillion

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<v Speaker 3>US dollars of debt in the world. The world runs

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<v Speaker 3>on debt, and these bond markets are widely considered to

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<v Speaker 3>be the most powerful political force in the world. They're

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<v Speaker 3>the thing that can stop presidents in their tracks. They

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<v Speaker 3>effectively force the resignation of the UK Prime Minister is

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<v Speaker 3>Trusts when she sort of unveiled some economic policies which

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<v Speaker 3>didn't make sense to bond markets. So if you cop

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<v Speaker 3>a serious reaction from bond markets, effectively a self a

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<v Speaker 3>sell off of bonds, the price goes down, the yield

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<v Speaker 3>goes up, and the cost of borrowing in your country

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<v Speaker 3>starts to spy, and that is a big problem. You've

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<v Speaker 3>reserved bank or your federal Reserve can come in and

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<v Speaker 3>try and push back against that by cutting interest rates,

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<v Speaker 3>cutting the official cash rate. But effectively, if markets are

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<v Speaker 3>saying that at the pricing a higher cost of borrowing,

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<v Speaker 3>it just means everything slows down in your economy because

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<v Speaker 3>you know, people can't afford to borrow to do things.

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<v Speaker 1>In a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee President's dinner,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump made some pretty scathing comments about his allies.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up kissing

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<v Speaker 2>my ass.

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<v Speaker 1>They are dying to make it your.

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<v Speaker 2>Please, please make it your I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir,

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<v Speaker 2>Do we have to kiss his ass? Slam?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's two approaches. Some countries have decided that it's

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<v Speaker 3>better to negotiat. I think New Zealand, having copped just

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<v Speaker 3>the baseline ten percent tariff, as we're not retaliating, we're

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<v Speaker 3>not really in that negotiating framework. I mean, we can

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<v Speaker 3>talk about the ten percent, but that's going across all

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<v Speaker 3>the countries, so it's not scific to New Zealand. We'll

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<v Speaker 3>have our trade officials go and talk to them and say, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>this is a bit weird and can we get some clarification.

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<v Speaker 3>But I don't think we're trying to negotiate in the

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<v Speaker 3>same way say Japan would be trying to negotiate right now.

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<v Speaker 3>We just have to wait and see what happens to

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<v Speaker 3>the whole thing. But then the other tactic, as we've seen,

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<v Speaker 3>is China has absolutely retaliated and we've got this you know,

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<v Speaker 3>standoff that's got to a sort of I guess a

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<v Speaker 3>mutually assured self destruction, you know, like kind of it's

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<v Speaker 3>like a nuclear level standoff. Now between China and the US,

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<v Speaker 3>and I suspect that in that case, both sides are

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<v Speaker 3>looking for a way to start talking. But both sides

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<v Speaker 3>need to look like they're not backing down. So my

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<v Speaker 3>hunch is that they're trying to find a way to

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<v Speaker 3>get some talks going because it's not a sustainable position.

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<v Speaker 3>It's disastrous for the US economy to have tariffs of

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<v Speaker 3>whatever it is, one hundred and twenty five percent on

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<v Speaker 3>Chinese goods, but it's also going to be a big

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<v Speaker 3>problem for China. I would imagine something's going to have

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<v Speaker 3>to move in the next few days.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's top trade official, Jamieson Grea, was testifying before Congress

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<v Speaker 1>when the ninety day pause was announced, and it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>seem like he knew about it.

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<v Speaker 2>When asked about it, he said, well, I understood the

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<v Speaker 2>decision was made a few minutes ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Now this just confirms to us that these decisions seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be made on the fly, doesn't it.

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<v Speaker 2>How dangerous is that?

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<v Speaker 3>It's very dangerous. I mean, Trump's playing a really high

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<v Speaker 3>stakes game of poker with really the very notion of

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<v Speaker 3>the US economy being that the primary or dominant economy

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<v Speaker 3>in the world. So trust in the US economy is

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<v Speaker 3>fundamental to their dollar being the primary currency for trading

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<v Speaker 3>in the world, and to come back to them again

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<v Speaker 3>to the bond market. So when you have a big

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<v Speaker 3>sell off of equities around the world, or if something

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<v Speaker 3>bad happens COVID, you know whatever, US bonds are seen

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<v Speaker 3>as the safe place you go there where you put

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<v Speaker 3>your money to stay safe. Now, what's happened in the

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<v Speaker 3>past couple of days is that we've seen US bonds

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<v Speaker 3>sold off quite significantly, so that the bond yields have

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<v Speaker 3>gone up. So it's just important to remember that there's

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<v Speaker 3>this inverse relation between the bond price and the bond

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<v Speaker 3>yield or the interest rate on the bond. So I

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<v Speaker 3>always think it's a bit like trying to back a trailer.

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<v Speaker 3>I always have to stop and just get it right

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<v Speaker 3>in my head each time, because it's not as straightforward

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<v Speaker 3>an equation as it is for equity markets. But around

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<v Speaker 3>the world countries have either been selling off bonds or

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<v Speaker 3>just stopped buying them. There's a lot of talk about

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<v Speaker 3>the fact that this could be done as a deliberate

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<v Speaker 3>retaliatory tactic. So China holds about a trillion dollars of

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<v Speaker 3>American bonds, and if they were to start selling them rapidly,

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<v Speaker 3>that would have a significant impact on the market. Now

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<v Speaker 3>it's not clear whether they were, or maybe they are

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<v Speaker 3>at some level, but there's probably a wider sell off

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<v Speaker 3>going on. And the pace at which the yield was

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<v Speaker 3>going up. It wasn't taking yields up to the highest

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen them in the past year or two, but

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<v Speaker 3>the pace at which the yield was rising was spooking

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<v Speaker 3>people in the US. There's a famous quote. It was

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<v Speaker 3>Bill Clinton's economic advisor, James Claville. He was the guy

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<v Speaker 3>who said it's the economy stupid, and they coined that phrase.

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<v Speaker 3>But he once said, after a sort of probably much

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<v Speaker 3>more mild crisis, that he used to think if he

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<v Speaker 3>was reincarnated, he'd want to come back as a president

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<v Speaker 3>or a pope to be powerful, But now he'd just

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<v Speaker 3>rather come back as the bond market, because that's the

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<v Speaker 3>most powerful thing there is out there. They're not well understood,

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<v Speaker 3>they're not a popular topic in the just the general

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<v Speaker 3>world of the public, but underpinning everything, it's that debt

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<v Speaker 3>and the price of debt that keeps our economy functioning

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<v Speaker 3>and flowing and so to sort of blow up the

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<v Speaker 3>established world order on that is a very high stakes game.

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<v Speaker 1>Indeed, and you mentioned Liz Trust before as well. Is

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<v Speaker 1>it true that so the bond market it can't lie right?

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<v Speaker 1>So you look back in twenty twenty one when Liz

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<v Speaker 1>Trust's tax cut policy tanked the markets and she had

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<v Speaker 1>to backtrack and eventually resign ultimately the markets in the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market in particular, does that make or break these policies?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look at will do. I mean, sheer markets possibly could.

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<v Speaker 3>But you can sort of wear a shear market crash

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<v Speaker 3>because you know, you can say, oh, well it's paper money.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we've we've lost so many trillion, but it

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<v Speaker 3>might come back next month. With the bond yields rising

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<v Speaker 3>to a certain point, there's a real world effect of

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<v Speaker 3>seizing up financial markets like we saw in the GFC.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, you just if the overnight borrowing rates go

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<v Speaker 3>through the roof, that the whole system can seize up.

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<v Speaker 2>Come it's less forgiving, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Because companies that thought they had an okay amount of

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<v Speaker 3>debt to carry on suddenly find out that the amount

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<v Speaker 3>of debt they've got is too big. With these new

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<v Speaker 3>higher interest rates, and you know, in the GFC that

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<v Speaker 3>meant that some banks, big banks started falling over, so

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<v Speaker 3>you know, and then you've got a global financial crisis.

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<v Speaker 3>So I guess what we're saying is that there's a

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<v Speaker 3>risk if this all spirals, that you get another global

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<v Speaker 3>financial crisis. And I don't think even Donald Trump has

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<v Speaker 3>the stomach for that. And that's probably what's forced this

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<v Speaker 3>partial back down and hopefully some sort of resolution in

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<v Speaker 3>the near future with the China standof.

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<v Speaker 1>And is that why we should be looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>bond markets not the share markets, because there have been

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<v Speaker 1>some record days for the share markets and people would

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<v Speaker 1>be looking at that thinking that's surely a good sign, right, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean it's very reactive the share market, so it

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<v Speaker 3>came off a lot. People don't have clear signals, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you can't predict what's going to happen, what's going to

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<v Speaker 3>come out of the White House. So the share markets

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<v Speaker 3>are very erratic, very volatile. They have bounced a lot

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<v Speaker 3>this morning that there's still in correction territory. They've bounced

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<v Speaker 3>back from around twenty percent losses this year to sort

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<v Speaker 3>of being I don't know, probably still down about ten

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<v Speaker 3>or twelve percent a lot of the share markets this year,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's still not been a great run. I guess

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<v Speaker 3>share market investors are hoping that we're back from the brink.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, addedly, it's just a ninety day pause, so

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<v Speaker 3>it doesn't make the uncertainty go away. Perhaps you could

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<v Speaker 3>argue that this is all a softening, you know, to

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<v Speaker 3>get to where Trump wants to be with a new

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<v Speaker 3>world Order of tariffs. You go through this turmoil and

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<v Speaker 3>wherever we land is a bit soft and slowly the

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<v Speaker 3>will gets used to the idea of what's coming, and

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<v Speaker 3>markets priced in, and he lands somewhere that's not quite

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<v Speaker 3>so terrifying. But yeah, I think it is the bond

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<v Speaker 3>market that's really going to decide it, and that's where

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<v Speaker 3>we should be looking.

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<v Speaker 1>China, of course, remains Trump's main target. He said that

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<v Speaker 1>the increased tariffs there are because of a lack.

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<v Speaker 2>Of respect Beijing has shown.

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<v Speaker 1>Will the measures against China have a trickle down effect

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<v Speaker 1>for New Zealand and others?

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<v Speaker 2>How will that affect us?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? So if this really does play out, if these

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs stay in place, it's going to be bad news

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<v Speaker 3>for the Chinese economy. It's going to cost them as well,

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<v Speaker 3>so that will affect growth. Now you get into a

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<v Speaker 3>game of who can take the most pain and who's

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<v Speaker 3>got the most ability to sort of maybe stimulate their

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<v Speaker 3>economy through that, you could have you know, central banks

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<v Speaker 3>on both sides sort of unleashing stimulus like they did

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<v Speaker 3>during COVID. That's not great long term, but in the

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<v Speaker 3>short term. Yeah, the expectation is that it's quite serious

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<v Speaker 3>for the global economy and probably quite serious then for

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<v Speaker 3>New Zealand's recovery. It's a headwind. It slows that. I

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<v Speaker 3>think the Finance Minister's called it a significant event. She's

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<v Speaker 3>obviously weary of calling it a crisis at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>Yesterday we had the Reserve Bank cutting the official cash

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<v Speaker 3>rate by the sort of two twenty five basis points,

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<v Speaker 3>which was what was already planned, but the tone was

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<v Speaker 3>that they could go further and they'd be ready to

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<v Speaker 3>go further if things go bad for the economy. So

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<v Speaker 3>that could mean that we see the official cash rate

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<v Speaker 3>go lower than expected. Here, I mean's lower mortgage rates

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.199
<v Speaker 3>to try and try and offset the downside. And then

0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:39.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, the other part of any stimulus or help

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:41.680
<v Speaker 3>that you could get for the New Zealand economy would

0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:43.840
<v Speaker 3>be the government part, and that's where the Finance Minister

0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.439
<v Speaker 3>has so far tried to say, look, no, we're holding

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:48.480
<v Speaker 3>the course. The budget's the same, we're still trying to

0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 3>get out of deficit, get the books into surplus on

0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.319
<v Speaker 3>the same pathway, but also saying she's not prepared to

0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:56.679
<v Speaker 3>do more cuts. But if the numbers don't add up,

0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.319
<v Speaker 3>if the New Zealand economy, if the growth is slower,

0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.760
<v Speaker 3>the tax and you will be lower and the government

0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 3>could face some hard choices. So it may be that

0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:08.679
<v Speaker 3>if this spirals and the budget's sort of almost written now,

0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.400
<v Speaker 3>but there could be some emergency revisions to the budget,

0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:14.600
<v Speaker 3>they may have to relax their fiscal constraints and allow

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.280
<v Speaker 3>a bit more government money into the economy. It's not

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 3>certain yet, but if things keep turning in a negative fashion,

0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 3>then that is an option for the government as well.

0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.319
<v Speaker 3>I mean, they're wary of borrowing more to do that.

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:27.920
<v Speaker 3>But then you'd have to look at it in the

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 3>context of a world where probably governments around the world

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:32.320
<v Speaker 3>are having to do this sort of thing.

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 1>And Trump has said China wants to make a deal,

0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.560
<v Speaker 1>they just don't know how quite to go about it.

0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.920
<v Speaker 1>What could he mean here? And what deal could China

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 1>possibly bargain? Do they need to?

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:46.400
<v Speaker 3>Well, this is what I mean about. I think there's

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 3>a lot of saving face here on both sides. Trump

0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.640
<v Speaker 3>says it as if it's just China's issue, but I

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.439
<v Speaker 3>think America is quite quite keen to make a deal too,

0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.160
<v Speaker 3>was hoping that they would make a deal. And China's

0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 3>the second biggest economy in the world. It sees what

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.680
<v Speaker 3>these you know, sees this tariff policy as an attack

0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:08.440
<v Speaker 3>on itself, and so it's standing up and yeah, look,

0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:11.360
<v Speaker 3>it is a bit like a sort of a Cold

0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 3>war nuclear moment. You take it to the brink, and

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 3>then at some point, you know, you just hope that

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 3>there is going to be a way there. You know,

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.560
<v Speaker 3>both both leaders and both countries will say, oh no,

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:23.839
<v Speaker 3>we've got the other sides back down, But there has

0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 3>to be a way for them to both save face

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.880
<v Speaker 3>with their own public and get to the negotiation table

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.559
<v Speaker 3>and dial it back to something that is manageable, because

0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 3>you know, at the moment, you know, those kind of

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:39.599
<v Speaker 3>tariffs when you consider the complexity of the trading relationships

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:44.240
<v Speaker 3>and the manufacturing relationships on everything from iPhones to cars

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:47.240
<v Speaker 3>and just all the goods that are connected between China

0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 3>and the US. It would be a disaster and really

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 3>inflationary for both economies.

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us, Liam, Yeah, thank you.

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You

0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:05.320
<v Speaker 1>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.800
<v Speaker 1>at enzedherld dot co dot enz.

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:10.840
<v Speaker 2>The Front Page is produced by Ethan.

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.439
<v Speaker 1>Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer.

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels.

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 1>Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.960
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0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:25.320
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