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Speaker 1: To write another ocr day. Everyone seems to see the

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Speaker 1: twenty five points being cut from the cash rope, but

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Speaker 1: the real story, of course, is the commentary. Does the

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Speaker 1: bank think they've done the job or is there more

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Speaker 1: where that came from? Today, Jared Kirky, who Bank's chief economist,

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Speaker 1: is back with us. Jared, very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, mind.

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Speaker 1: I must congratulate you because you've been consistent over the months.

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Speaker 1: You've said fifty to fifty to fifty points and you

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Speaker 1: need some more help from the bank. Do you think

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Speaker 1: ultimately you will be proved to be right?

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Speaker 2: I think we're getting close to the bottom and I

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Speaker 2: think that's where we need to be, and it's what

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Speaker 2: we've been calling for.

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Speaker 1: So, yeah, twenty five today with how many more? One

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Speaker 1: or two?

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Speaker 2: Another? Two?

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Speaker 1: So that gets us down to what two? Five? Two

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Speaker 1: point five?

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Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. And while we're saying that, is that we

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Speaker 2: think neutral is a round three and a slightly symmetry

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Speaker 2: setting is what we need.

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Speaker 1: Right, So do they see that? And if they don't

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Speaker 1: see it, could they have done it quicker?

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Speaker 2: They could have done it quicker. I mean last meeting,

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Speaker 2: which I don't think was the right decision, and here

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Speaker 2: we are cutting today. I do think they get it.

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Speaker 2: Their current ocr track, which is their forecast, suggests that

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Speaker 2: they can go down to two seventy five. So we're

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Speaker 2: getting close. And I just think we need to get

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Speaker 2: us into symmetry territory to really get us out of

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Speaker 2: a recession.

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Speaker 1: How much of it's psychological and how much of it's real.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we keep saying twenty five and something will

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Speaker 1: happen and then all these people are on their fixed

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Speaker 1: rates and they will go, you know, and run around.

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Speaker 1: We go, it hasn't happened, has it?

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Speaker 2: No, not yet. You need to get interest rates to

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Speaker 2: a level where it actually kicks in and it stimulates

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Speaker 2: and it gets people talking, it gets people excited, and

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Speaker 2: we're not there. When I talk to property investors, you know,

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Speaker 2: mortgage rates at five percent, they're a lot better than

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Speaker 2: what they were, you know, seven and a half percent

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Speaker 2: last year, but they're not at levels that are enticing them.

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Speaker 2: Rental yields are not there. They're at three and a

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Speaker 2: half percent, they're not at five. You talk to businesses

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Speaker 2: and that's just nervous that they're not ready to go

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Speaker 2: out and invest.

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Speaker 1: Correct. What's your vibe on Christian. Is he going to

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Speaker 1: tell us what he needs to tell us today or

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Speaker 1: is he going to play it close to his chest

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Speaker 1: so he doesn't overplay his hand. From his point of view.

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Speaker 2: Well, he played it close to his chests in May,

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Speaker 2: which I think was the wrong decision. I think he

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Speaker 2: should have been a bit more aggressive, a bit more

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Speaker 2: pro growth. So I think we'll get a bit more

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Speaker 2: of what we saw in May today. He will cut,

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Speaker 2: he will point to the need for another one, but

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Speaker 2: he's playing his cards very close to his chest.

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Speaker 1: Is it him or is it the committee? Or is

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Speaker 1: it both? Are they all of the similar realk They

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Speaker 1: sit in a room in Wellington's stare at spreadsheets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah they do. That's part of the gig. And I

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Speaker 2: do think they're being cautious with what's going on overseas,

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Speaker 2: and there is a bit of residual inflation locally that

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Speaker 2: they're worried about. I think they need to look through

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Speaker 2: it this time. Next year, we think inflation is going

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Speaker 2: to be below two percent and that gives them plenty

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Speaker 2: of headone to cut.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's see what happens. Appreciate your time as always.

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Speaker 1: Jared Kirky, we Bank chief economist. For more from the

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Speaker 1: mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks I'd Be

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