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Speaker 1: Ready. Do you reckon Luxing can make it a third.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. I don't think he's going to

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Speaker 2: make much headway with Anthony Albanezi on this The government

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Speaker 2: over there has been under a lot of pressure from

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Speaker 2: the opposition to take a more hardline stance, and they

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Speaker 2: actually changed their immigration minister a few weeks ago. So

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Speaker 2: they've now got someone who's from the right of the party,

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Speaker 2: Tony Burke, who's the minister over there. And I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to deport New Zealanders if and when he

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Speaker 2: wants to. And so I don't think Christopher Luxin is

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Speaker 2: really going to make much progress there. And he hinted

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Speaker 2: it that last night when he spoke to the Lower

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Speaker 2: Institute in Sydney and the Q and A. He basically

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Speaker 2: said that they were going to agree to disagree on

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Speaker 2: this issue, but he would continue to voice New Zealand's displeasure.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's perhaps all he really can do,

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Speaker 2: and he can simply hope that while Australia might engage

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Speaker 2: in a lot of tough talk on this issue, they might

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Speaker 2: show a bit of pragmatism towards New Zealand. Given that

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Speaker 2: Christopher Luxein is really seeking to align himself with Australia

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Speaker 2: quite strongly on wider foreign policy issues.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they've also got an election coming up, right, They're

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Speaker 1: hardly they're hardly going to bend over to us right

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Speaker 1: before they've got an election. As you say, just change

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Speaker 1: the immigration minister. That speech you mentioned at the Low Institute,

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Speaker 1: he said, this is Luxeen, this big first foreign affairs

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Speaker 1: outing that we are deliberately deepening our relationship with Five

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Speaker 1: Eyes partners. Is that a bad thing?

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Speaker 2: Well, look, it was a very hawkish speech that he

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Speaker 2: gave last night and the Q and A it was

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Speaker 2: also very revealing. He said that he wanted New Zealand

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Speaker 2: to be a force multiplier for Australia, and he called

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Speaker 2: the independent foreign policy approach that uzen And has taken

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Speaker 2: for the last four decades almost he called that a nonsense.

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Speaker 2: So it was very very strong. He said he was

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Speaker 2: very very aligned with Anthony Albanesi. And yes, I mean

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Speaker 2: it was very clear what the direction of travel is

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Speaker 2: going to be under Christopher Luxe. And I think it

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Speaker 2: will be music to Camper his ears, music to Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albanese's ears, but it could put New Zealand on a

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Speaker 2: collision course with China.

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Speaker 1: He said New Zealand does sometimes perceive themselves as buffered

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Speaker 1: by splendid isolation, but there is no opting out from

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Speaker 1: today's strategic realities. The world is getting more difficult and

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Speaker 1: more complex, particularly so for those smaller states navigating increasingly

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Speaker 1: stormy seas. New Zealand two must be a participant and

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Speaker 1: a contributor, not an interested bystander. Does he have a point?

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Speaker 2: Look, I think New Zealand should be more involved in

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Speaker 2: the world, but it's exactly how you do it is

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Speaker 2: the question. And Christopher Luxm's recipe seems to be to

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Speaker 2: be taking a much more hawkoush stance, to be aligning

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Speaker 2: itself and to be aligning New Zealand very much with

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Speaker 2: Five Lives partners like Australia, like the United States. And

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Speaker 2: that's a line with heard very consistently from Winston Peters,

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Speaker 2: the Foreign Minister, over the last nine months. But it

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Speaker 2: will represent quite a sea change for New Zealand's foreign

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Speaker 2: policy to be moving away from the independent foreign policy

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Speaker 2: towards their becoming a de facto alliance member again in

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Speaker 2: the Western Alliance. He said that New Zealand's continuing to

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Speaker 2: explore orcers. It sounds like decisions being put on hold

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Speaker 2: pending the outcome of the US elections in November. But

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Speaker 2: it's very much still in the mix where the New

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Speaker 2: Zealand joins UCAS Pillar two. We've been told that for

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Speaker 2: US for quite some time, but I think it is coming,

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Speaker 2: some of these big decisions, and it really will be

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Speaker 2: quite a change to New Zealand's foreign policy positioning.

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Speaker 1: Well, and the way he's talking, I mean, you feel

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Speaker 1: like you're being bartered up for it, almost, don't you. Jeffrey.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much for your time and your analysis

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Speaker 1: this morning. Jeffrey Miller, International geopolitical analyst.

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