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Speaker 1: Unemployment sitting at four point six percent for the June quarter.

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Speaker 1: That's a three year high, and it's an increase from

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Speaker 1: four point three percent from quarter one. It means basically,

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Speaker 1: thirty three thousand people who had jobs this time last

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Speaker 1: year are now out of work. But what a business

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Speaker 1: is on the ground seeing right now, because remember that's

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Speaker 1: old data by now, isn't it. The Employer Manufacturers Association

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Speaker 1: Alan McDonald's with me, Alan, good morning, Can I Ryan?

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing? How much worse are job cuts

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Speaker 1: going to get? In your view?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately, I think it's going to continue. We've been

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Speaker 2: seeing a steady increase in the numbers of businesses calling

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Speaker 2: out advice line, our helpline for our members to talk

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Speaker 2: about restructuring and redundancy, and I really had expected it

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Speaker 2: to start heading the other way, but we just hit

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Speaker 2: a record high in July of one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: three calls in a month.

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Speaker 1: What are they asking you these businesses?

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Speaker 2: It's basically how to go about the right way to

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Speaker 2: make people redundant or downsize their businesses because the business

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Speaker 2: simply isn't there and they haven't got the work for

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Speaker 2: those people.

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Speaker 1: What sort of businesses are calling you. We're looking at

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of method necks and taranaki. We're looking

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Speaker 1: at the pulp mills. Are recycling paper mill in Auckland

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Speaker 1: in the news in the last couple of days because

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Speaker 1: of energy costs, they're looking at getting rid of folks.

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing? What types of businesses?

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Speaker 2: It's across the board. It's most of our members are

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Speaker 2: what you'd call smaller medium businesses, so smaller than probably

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Speaker 2: a hundred or fewer than one hundred employees, and all

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Speaker 2: parts of the economy, really manufacturing struggling quite badly at

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Speaker 2: the moment, but it's all sectors of the economy.

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Speaker 1: Once adrien Or decides to start lowering rates, how much

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Speaker 1: longer will it take for you, guys, for your members

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Speaker 1: to feel it.

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Speaker 2: Well, if the Reserve Bank does lower rates, it's likely

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Speaker 2: can only be zero point two five. I think it's

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Speaker 2: more about the signal than anything else. There are a

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Speaker 2: few green shoots out there, and I think if the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank did lower rates, that would be a signal

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Speaker 2: that says, look, things are going to get better and

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Speaker 2: try and hang on. But it takes a while for

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Speaker 2: those of those signals to flow through into reality. I

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Speaker 2: suppose twelve to eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: Usually, Allen, thank you very much for your time. Allan

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Speaker 1: McDonald the Employers and Manufacturers Association.

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