1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Afternoon following that big White House meeting overnight, it looks 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: like the next step could be Zelenski and Putin meeting 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 1: face to face in the next fortnight. Trump says it's 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: full steam ahead to bring peace to Ukraine. 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 2: We'll see in a certain period of time, not very 6 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: far from now, a week or two weeks, we're going 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 2: to know whether or not we're going to solve this 8 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 2: or is this horrible fighting and to continue. We'll do 9 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 2: it the best to get it ended. 10 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: Doctor Gordon Adams is a professor of US foreign policy 11 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: at America University out of Washington, d C. High Gordon, Hi, 12 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: are you hopeful that what we saw today may in 13 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: fact be a step towards ending the fighting. 14 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 3: It's not clear to me that it will. There's an 15 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 3: awful lot of things being discussed, but nothing is truly subtled. 16 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 3: Perhaps the only change that's really happened between Alaska and Washington, 17 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 3: DC today is that the President stepped firmly away from 18 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 3: a ceasefire, and it's prepared a lot the negotiations to 19 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: go towards some kind of peace agreement, but nobody truly 20 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: knows how long that is going to take. Almost nothing 21 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 3: is fully settled right now. So any set of issues 22 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 3: that you deal with in this long lasting war is 23 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: still up in the air, and the fighting continues with 24 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 3: the president having stepped away from a ceasefire. 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: Given though how much we've watched, you know, in Alaska 26 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: and here in the White House, doesn't Trump have to 27 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: deliver or he'll be humiliated? 28 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: Yes, but it's not clear that he can because by 29 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 3: stepping away from a ceasefire, he has effectively put himself 30 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 3: behind Putin's position. You know, Putin was the one who said, 31 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 3: we're not going to do a ceasefire, we'll do a 32 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: peace agreement, and that's been clearly for Putin a step 33 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 3: away from any agreement because as long as he feels 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 3: the Russian troops are making small advances, there's no incentive 35 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 3: for him to stop firing, and really no incentive for 36 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 3: a peace agreement at this point. The incentives on the 37 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 3: Russian side are quite weak. We're dealing here, too, with 38 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 3: a transaction. Chief executive in the American government, you know, 39 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 3: hang onto your seat belt if you want to know 40 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 3: what's coming next, because the changeability of this particular president 41 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 3: is rampant, which means tomorrow it could be a different 42 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 3: approach altogether from the one that was making sense today. 43 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 3: He's quite good dealing one on one or in small 44 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 3: groups with people where he's bouncing back and forth between 45 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 3: what they're saying and how he responds in the moment, 46 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 3: but it's not a president with a strategy, so it's 47 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 3: not clear where he will go next and when he 48 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 3: shifts position. It makes it doubly hard for any of 49 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 3: the other players, the Europeans or the Ukrainians, to adjust 50 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 3: and cope and deal. None of the issues that stood 51 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 3: between Russia and Ukraine have been settled as of yet, 52 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 3: none of them. 53 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: It seems to me that apart from from you know, 54 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: the board is and how much land has to be 55 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: given up, the sticking point may in fact be what 56 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: a security agreement looks like. So what does security agreement 57 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: look like for Ukraine that Putin's going to be okay with? 58 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: That is one of the that is obviously for the 59 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 3: Ukrainians the key area. It's what Selensky has asked for 60 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: repeatedly in the years that these discussions have been going on, 61 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: and it's very clear that a huge gap separates the 62 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 3: Russians from the Ukrainians on a deal with respect to 63 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 3: security guarantees. The Russians have made it very very clear 64 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 3: that they do not want any option for Ukrainian membership 65 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 3: in NATO, and they do not want any European, non 66 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 3: Ukrainian troops in Ukraine providing that security guarantee. And I 67 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 3: can assure you that this president is unlikely to provide 68 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 3: American troops as a security guarantee. So from the Ukrainian perspective, 69 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 3: it's not clear what is going to make them happy 70 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 3: if they give up the territory that they now control 71 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 3: that the Russians want. They are effectively abandoning defenses that 72 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 3: work pretty well for them in terms of staying a 73 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 3: Russian advance and the rest of the Ukrainian planes wheat 74 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 3: planes are open for the Russians to start up again 75 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 3: at some other point in time. So this is the 76 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 3: security guarantee issue is the core issue now in this disagreement. 77 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 3: It seems like Ukrainians would be willing to seed some land, 78 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 3: probably the land that the Russians now occupy, but not 79 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 3: the remainder of the Donbas, and they want some troop presence, 80 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 3: not just words from NATO and from the United States, 81 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 3: in the form of a security guarantee, NATO is unlikely 82 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: to be able to put troops there, and the United States, 83 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: particularly this president, are unlikely to make anything like an 84 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 3: Article five commitment. If you're attack will come at your defense. 85 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy, Allen Drive listen live to 86 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,239 Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 87 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.