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Speaker 1: Listen. As I said to you, I'm going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the OCR in a minute, because that's obviously an

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Speaker 1: important thing that's going to happen in a couple of

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Speaker 1: days time. But as I said to you earlier, we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk to a New Zealand just after half

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Speaker 1: past about the fact that ComCom has declined their request

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Speaker 1: to do a review in to Auckland Airports. Now related

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Speaker 1: slightly related matter. We tried to greet Greg fouran on

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Speaker 1: to talk about it, and they said, I will just

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Speaker 1: go and hunt Greg downseat. But then Greg couldn't do it,

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Speaker 1: and so someone else is going to do It's Christy

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Speaker 1: mckaye who's going to do it? Who is actually the

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Speaker 1: right person to talk to about it? Anyway, what I

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Speaker 1: heard is I'm surprised Greg is still there because they

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Speaker 1: had his farewell the other day. And what I heard

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Speaker 1: was that his farewell was in one of the hangars,

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Speaker 1: which means they couldn't have booze, so they had an

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Speaker 1: entire farewell boozeless. Would you go to it? I would,

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Speaker 1: thank god, I declined. I declined because I'm on air

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Speaker 1: at the time. But if I'd known the circumstances and

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Speaker 1: I wasn't on it, I would have declined, So thank

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Speaker 1: god I missed that, because who wants to go to

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Speaker 1: a goodbye party? There's not even a little Gin and

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Speaker 1: tonic to suck on. Anyway, Christy doesn't this question is

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Speaker 1: coming at it, but I'm going to see if I

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Speaker 1: can confirm this with her. It's nineteen past six, Shane,

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Speaker 1: Solly Harbor Asset Managements with me. Hey, Shane, Hello, there's

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Speaker 1: a no. On Friday, Shane, we had some weak US

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Speaker 1: economic data released. What do you reckon this means for

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Speaker 1: investment markets?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, good question. So on Friday we what it's called

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Speaker 2: this September US IM Service Index, and that's an institute

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Speaker 2: of supply management. So the forward looking index came in

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Speaker 2: week and then expect that it came in at fifty, which

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Speaker 2: is still sort of neutralish, but the market had been

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Speaker 2: expecting it to be a more like fifty one and

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Speaker 2: a half fifty two, So actually a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a shrinking activity since first time, since they's actually the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: But bad news is good news and markets, and that

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Speaker 2: calling and activity means the US Fed a reserve maybe

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Speaker 2: out a cut rates a bit quicker, and the markets

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Speaker 2: are actually priced it a ninety five percent chants of

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Speaker 2: an October cut by the Fed. So yep, markets can

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Speaker 2: twist it.

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Speaker 1: Now we've got the Reserve Bank official cash rate cut. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we can call it a cut on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: can't we? But what is the market expecting into of

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Speaker 1: a cut or a double cut?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think you know a great point. The market

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Speaker 2: is fully expecting a cut. And I think you know

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Speaker 2: we've got markets pricing at the zero point three four,

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Speaker 2: which is a kind of an odd number. So what

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Speaker 2: it means is at least zero point twenty five percent,

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Speaker 2: so a quarter of percent, and potential for a zero

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Speaker 2: point five percent, so that will take us to two

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Speaker 2: point seventy five or two point five percent. So the

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Speaker 2: key for investment markets is how dubbish language is dubbish?

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Speaker 1: Meaning?

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Speaker 2: Will there be more cuts? And so the markets seventy

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Speaker 2: four nove inbo So if we don't get fifty, this

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Speaker 2: run round. But if there's some dubbish discussion, there will

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Speaker 2: be another twenty five and in November. And there's some

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Speaker 2: people out there saying it should be fifty now and

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Speaker 2: twenty five again in November. So pretty punchy. But your

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Speaker 2: markets have run ahead of this, they can run further.

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Speaker 2: So the ten year government bond y' for example here

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Speaker 2: there has gone from four point seven percent it's peak

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Speaker 2: at the last year, to four to twenty five. That's

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Speaker 2: a reasonable move. New Zealand dollar cross rate against the

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Speaker 2: US has gone from sixty one to fifty eight. In

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Speaker 2: New Zealand share market's actually up fourteen percent from its

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Speaker 2: April low. It's only seventy seen up on a year ago,

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Speaker 2: but it's still like forty percent, so it's turned a

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Speaker 2: pretty good rally in anticipation of these rate cuts. See

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Speaker 2: the mark was a bit flat today, but we did

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Speaker 2: see all the rate sensitive economic sensitive stocks like Ryman

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Speaker 2: and some are setting some of the propery stocks for me.

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Speaker 1: Now you've got the business opinion out tomorrow, what are

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Speaker 1: you expecting to see them?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look at QSBO. The inside i QSBO really well regarded.

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Speaker 2: Last time around back in June was eighteen was the number,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty low really, so hopefully we'll see a

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Speaker 2: bit of a lift from this. In terms of the

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Speaker 2: September quarter, we are getting more and more comment comments

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Speaker 2: from a company are saying, look those green shots we're

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Speaker 2: talking about a month or two ago. They're actually growing

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Speaker 2: into pasture rather than weeds. But so we should see

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Speaker 2: a decent lift tomorrow from Jane's low, but it may

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Speaker 2: still be a little while before businesses talking about making.

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Speaker 1: Hay brilliant, something at least Shane appreciated. Shane solely harbor

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Speaker 1: Asset Management. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen

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Speaker 1: live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays,

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