1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: Heather duplicy Ellen, I've just lost another wicket. Captain Kaine 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: is out. I'll get you the details and to take 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: eighteen past six. Jeremy Hutton Milfed Asset Management is with 4 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: us a Jeremy. 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 2: Good evening, Heather. 6 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: Now, as we know, the economies had a few tough years, 7 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: hasn't it. But are we finally starting to see the 8 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: start of hard data improvements coming through? 9 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. A lot of the economic improvements so 10 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 2: far has been in the more soft data, So this 11 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: is more feeling and surveys and you know, people indicating 12 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 2: that next year they'll probably will feel a bit better 13 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: or spend some more money. But some of the harder 14 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: data is starting to come through too, which is good 15 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: and confirms that positivity. And one such story today is 16 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: on the injed X we had a non agri business 17 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: upgrade their earnings forecast and that was in Z to 18 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 2: me and a company you will know very well. But pleasingly, 19 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 2: it was the revenue line which contributed to the beat 20 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: or the upgrade and earnings. And we know that media 21 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: and advertising can be at the point end of the economy, 22 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: and we know have cut back materially on advertising spend 23 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 2: where the demand has been quite weak. So perhaps in 24 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 2: me's upgrade is indicating that there's a little bit more spend, 25 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 2: a little bit more activity going on in the wider economy. 26 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 1: Some jobs data improving too from Stats New Zealand. 27 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, Stats New Zealand. Yesterday they had their fulled jobs data. 28 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 2: This is effectively all the jobs in the New Zealand economy, 29 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 2: and that's increased for two months in a row. You know, 30 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 2: not maybe not quite a trend, but you know, getting better, 31 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 2: and it is good that the economy is starting to 32 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 2: add some jobs again. I'd also note that in terms 33 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 2: of activity is house sales volumes, so you know, this 34 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 2: is activity and liquidity in the market has been pretty 35 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 2: consistently increasing each and every month this year, So more 36 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 2: activity in the housing market. But I would just know, 37 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: you know, we are coming off the bottom, so there 38 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: is still certainly a way to go here. 39 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, listen on this restaurant brand's takeover offer. Do 40 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: you reckon the independent value or report is going to 41 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: disappoint some of the some of the shareholders. 42 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, potentially, you know, fin Access, there are Mexican private 43 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 2: equity owner or investor they've owned seventy five percent of 44 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: restaurant brands for about seven years now, and they submitted 45 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: a takeover offer for the remaining twenty five percent of 46 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 2: the business and they want to take it private and 47 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 2: take it off the listed market. And you know, on 48 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 2: face value, their offer was pretty attractive. It was five 49 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 2: five dollars and five cents and that was a big 50 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 2: seventy percent premium versus what the share price was before. 51 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 2: But the company has had a really disappointing few years. 52 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: The share price has fallen eighty percent over the past 53 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 2: few years, so, you know, a tough going for shareholders. 54 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: But the independent value report that came out yesterday as well, 55 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 2: and the midpoint actually indicated a value of five seventy 56 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: two so obviously a lot more than what furn Access 57 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 2: is offering. So perhaps the getting that remaining twenty five 58 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 2: percent a little bit cheaply and some New Zealand investors 59 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 2: could be missing out here. 60 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: Have we seen any impact from the CGT proposal? 61 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, not too much at this point. I mean you 62 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: might goes to say the listed real estate companies or 63 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: the retirement companies that could be impacted. You know, the 64 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 2: retirement one's an easier one. You've had the bright line 65 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 2: test for a few years. We've had various proposals of 66 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 2: capital gains and retirement's always been excluded from those, so 67 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,399 Speaker 2: imagine that would be the same for Labour's twenty twenty 68 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 2: seven tax. But REATS, you know some impact. New Zealand 69 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 2: does have a key differential currently with Australia and property 70 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 2: for investors. You know, we don't have capital gains tax 71 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: or stamp duty or land taxes, so perhaps one of 72 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: our relative attractiveness points has gone there. But you know, 73 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 2: REATS they do deliver some of their gains through share 74 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 2: price appreciation and that is obviously excluded. So you know 75 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: there's some attractiveness to the listed rots and you know 76 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: investors want that property exposure. It could be better than 77 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 2: incurring a capital gains tax on a direct property investment. 78 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: Interesting. Hey, thank you very much. Jeremy has always appreciated 79 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: Jeremy Hutt and wulf Ford Acid Management. For more from 80 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News to Bok 81 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: said Be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 82 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.