1 00:00:00,159 --> 00:00:02,460 Speaker 1: You're listening to AC N A podcast. 2 00:00:06,710 --> 00:00:10,738 Speaker 1: Does the name Boris Nadezhdin? Ring a bell? Maybe not. 3 00:00:10,750 --> 00:00:14,260 Speaker 1: And Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to keep it that way. 4 00:00:14,529 --> 00:00:18,090 Speaker 1: Russia heads to the polls this weekend and the anti war, 5 00:00:18,100 --> 00:00:21,779 Speaker 1: Mr Nadezhdin was the only serious opponent in the running. 6 00:00:23,399 --> 00:00:25,129 Speaker 2: You must be training. 7 00:00:27,239 --> 00:00:27,260 Speaker 2: She, 8 00:00:30,870 --> 00:00:34,418 Speaker 1: this is one of his social media posts. He's playing 9 00:00:34,430 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: the guitar, belting out a patriotic song with his daughter. 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,630 Speaker 1: And as they sing, images of lengthy cues flash across 11 00:00:41,639 --> 00:00:44,630 Speaker 1: the screen showing hundreds of people lining up in the 12 00:00:44,639 --> 00:00:48,700 Speaker 1: snow to register their support for him, but he was 13 00:00:48,709 --> 00:00:53,060 Speaker 1: disqualified last month. Officials said he didn't have enough signatures 14 00:00:53,069 --> 00:00:54,189 Speaker 1: to back his bid. 15 00:00:54,950 --> 00:00:57,830 Speaker 1: I'm Theresa Tang. This week, we turn our attention to 16 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,729 Speaker 1: Russia as we try to understand President Putin's grip on 17 00:01:01,740 --> 00:01:05,940 Speaker 1: power and its impact on the more than 143 million 18 00:01:05,949 --> 00:01:10,269 Speaker 1: people who call the nation home, former Moscow correspondent, Julia 19 00:01:10,279 --> 00:01:11,569 Speaker 1: Chapman joins me today. 20 00:01:12,370 --> 00:01:15,239 Speaker 1: Hey, Julia, thanks for coming on. My pleasure. Very happy 21 00:01:15,250 --> 00:01:18,300 Speaker 1: to be with you. Now, you have a very special 22 00:01:18,309 --> 00:01:21,899 Speaker 1: fascination with Russia. I know you spent five years there. 23 00:01:21,910 --> 00:01:24,488 Speaker 1: Part of it as a correspondent and you speak Russian 24 00:01:24,500 --> 00:01:27,589 Speaker 1: as well. Tell me what draws you to this country. 25 00:01:28,519 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 1: I think as so often is the case with these 26 00:01:31,209 --> 00:01:34,018 Speaker 1: kinds of things. There's a family connection. I'm not Russian 27 00:01:34,029 --> 00:01:37,789 Speaker 1: despite my name, but my mum is Eastern European and 28 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,019 Speaker 1: I always kind of had an eye on that part 29 00:01:40,029 --> 00:01:42,110 Speaker 1: of the world was always interested in, in what was 30 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,339 Speaker 1: going on there. And when I decided to become a journalist, Russia, 31 00:01:46,349 --> 00:01:48,769 Speaker 1: sort of seemed like the obvious place to start. It 32 00:01:48,779 --> 00:01:51,260 Speaker 1: was the country with the most international interest. 33 00:01:51,540 --> 00:01:54,860 Speaker 1: It was an unknown quantity for so many people. And 34 00:01:54,870 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: I think what I liked about it was that it 35 00:01:56,809 --> 00:01:58,860 Speaker 1: seemed like a bit of a challenge. And so I 36 00:01:58,870 --> 00:02:01,639 Speaker 1: decided to start learning Russian. And the more I picked 37 00:02:01,650 --> 00:02:04,019 Speaker 1: up and the more Russian people I spoke to, the 38 00:02:04,029 --> 00:02:06,110 Speaker 1: more I started to kind of fall in love, not 39 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: just with the politics, but also the culture, the language, 40 00:02:09,008 --> 00:02:12,910 Speaker 1: the food and probably more than anything, the landscape, the 41 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,070 Speaker 1: really varied landscape. It's the biggest country in the world 42 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: and it's just endlessly fascinating. 43 00:02:18,210 --> 00:02:20,609 Speaker 1: And as a journalist when I started working there, you know, 44 00:02:20,619 --> 00:02:23,979 Speaker 1: I very quickly realized that it's never boring, there's always 45 00:02:23,990 --> 00:02:26,770 Speaker 1: something going on, something that's often very shocking to the 46 00:02:26,779 --> 00:02:30,970 Speaker 1: outside world. And, you know, for many people, I think 47 00:02:30,979 --> 00:02:33,830 Speaker 1: they see Russia as a country that's very dangerous to 48 00:02:33,839 --> 00:02:36,750 Speaker 1: be a journalist in. And when I first arrived. I 49 00:02:36,758 --> 00:02:40,949 Speaker 1: didn't really feel that at least not as a Western correspondent. Certainly, 50 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,869 Speaker 1: the government didn't love having Western journalists, foreign journalists scrutinizing 51 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,940 Speaker 1: its actions, but mostly it was worried about what people 52 00:02:48,949 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: were reporting on in the Russian language. And so there 53 00:02:52,330 --> 00:02:56,300 Speaker 1: was certainly a fairly free rein we had wasn't being followed. 54 00:02:56,309 --> 00:02:58,779 Speaker 1: We may not have had very much access to government officials, 55 00:02:58,788 --> 00:03:01,508 Speaker 1: but we could really go about our lives doing what 56 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,809 Speaker 1: we wanted to do. And the Russian people we always 57 00:03:03,820 --> 00:03:06,869 Speaker 1: found were actually very open. They were always, always happy 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:08,539 Speaker 1: for a chat. You could, you could stop someone on 59 00:03:08,550 --> 00:03:10,380 Speaker 1: the street and ask them what they thought about politics 60 00:03:10,389 --> 00:03:10,610 Speaker 1: and 61 00:03:10,910 --> 00:03:13,710 Speaker 1: they may not necessarily give you a fully honest answer. 62 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: They might be afraid of the consequences, but they were 63 00:03:15,889 --> 00:03:17,770 Speaker 1: always very happy to talk to you. And that was 64 00:03:17,779 --> 00:03:19,788 Speaker 1: something I really enjoyed about working in Russia. 65 00:03:20,309 --> 00:03:22,978 Speaker 1: And it wasn't really until the full scale invasion of 66 00:03:22,990 --> 00:03:26,610 Speaker 1: Ukraine that, that changed and I started to feel more vulnerable. 67 00:03:27,059 --> 00:03:29,929 Speaker 1: You are typically based in London, but right now you're 68 00:03:29,940 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: on assignment in Budapest. And I know you were based 69 00:03:32,529 --> 00:03:36,449 Speaker 1: in Moscow for a few years and you left in 2022. 70 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,179 Speaker 1: Not long after the so called special military operation in 71 00:03:40,190 --> 00:03:41,250 Speaker 1: Ukraine began 72 00:03:41,750 --> 00:03:45,669 Speaker 1: Julia before things escalated. How would you describe President Putin's 73 00:03:45,679 --> 00:03:49,330 Speaker 1: presence in Russia? I was reading one poll, putting his 74 00:03:49,339 --> 00:03:54,350 Speaker 1: approval rating at an astounding 80% just how popular is he, 75 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,110 Speaker 1: did you get the sense that he loomed over daily life? 76 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,860 Speaker 1: It's certainly a question that's difficult to come up with 77 00:04:00,869 --> 00:04:05,380 Speaker 1: a entirely fact based answer for. Of course, polling is 78 00:04:05,389 --> 00:04:09,899 Speaker 1: not completely independent. Even the independent pollsters are now operating 79 00:04:09,910 --> 00:04:12,820 Speaker 1: under such restrictions that you can't really get a clear 80 00:04:12,830 --> 00:04:16,010 Speaker 1: answer about what people think anymore. They're too afraid of 81 00:04:16,019 --> 00:04:18,540 Speaker 1: the repercussions. But back in the day where it was 82 00:04:18,549 --> 00:04:20,579 Speaker 1: a bit more possible to gauge public opinion. 83 00:04:21,130 --> 00:04:24,350 Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that Putin looms over the country. There 84 00:04:24,359 --> 00:04:27,980 Speaker 1: are certainly many, many supporters of Vladimir Putin. I think 85 00:04:27,988 --> 00:04:30,829 Speaker 1: it's impossible to overstate that. There are people who think 86 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,869 Speaker 1: that he has done wonders for the country. He's lifted 87 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,260 Speaker 1: it out of poverty. There are also many Russians who 88 00:04:35,269 --> 00:04:37,950 Speaker 1: view the West with a lot of suspicion and they 89 00:04:38,079 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: are very sympathetic to the ideas put forward by Vladimir 90 00:04:41,170 --> 00:04:43,690 Speaker 1: Putin that the West is out to get Russia that 91 00:04:43,700 --> 00:04:46,230 Speaker 1: it's constantly seeking to punish Russia. There is a lot 92 00:04:46,238 --> 00:04:47,230 Speaker 1: of sympathy with that as well. 93 00:04:47,332 --> 00:04:50,111 Speaker 1: So that rhetoric does play into quite a lot of 94 00:04:50,122 --> 00:04:53,851 Speaker 1: sentiment publicly in Russia. There are then segments of society 95 00:04:53,861 --> 00:04:56,671 Speaker 1: that are a bit skeptical about Putin himself but don't 96 00:04:56,682 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: really see any viable alternatives. They don't feel that he's 97 00:04:59,891 --> 00:05:03,052 Speaker 1: taking their country down a particularly risky path. Uh And 98 00:05:03,062 --> 00:05:05,682 Speaker 1: then there's the, the segment of society that is vehemently 99 00:05:05,690 --> 00:05:10,101 Speaker 1: anti Putin, those people come in different guises. They won't 100 00:05:10,111 --> 00:05:13,450 Speaker 1: necessarily always be explicit or vocal about their feelings. 101 00:05:13,723 --> 00:05:16,044 Speaker 1: Many of them are too afraid to express them. Then 102 00:05:16,053 --> 00:05:17,743 Speaker 1: there are those that we did see taking to the 103 00:05:17,753 --> 00:05:20,123 Speaker 1: streets in protest from time to time when it was 104 00:05:20,134 --> 00:05:23,433 Speaker 1: more possible to do so. But there's also a huge 105 00:05:23,444 --> 00:05:27,093 Speaker 1: part of Russian society. I think that doesn't want to 106 00:05:27,104 --> 00:05:31,213 Speaker 1: engage in politics that doesn't really feel strongly about Putin 107 00:05:31,223 --> 00:05:32,993 Speaker 1: or even if they do, they don't feel that they 108 00:05:33,003 --> 00:05:35,783 Speaker 1: have any power to change the way that he runs 109 00:05:35,794 --> 00:05:37,954 Speaker 1: the country. So they just keep their head down and 110 00:05:37,963 --> 00:05:39,634 Speaker 1: try to live their lives as much as 111 00:05:39,735 --> 00:05:42,216 Speaker 1: they can as freely as they can and, and try 112 00:05:42,226 --> 00:05:45,055 Speaker 1: to enjoy what they have without trying to get involved 113 00:05:45,065 --> 00:05:48,315 Speaker 1: in politics. The media landscape is heavily restricted. It has 114 00:05:48,325 --> 00:05:51,395 Speaker 1: become much more. So since the war in Ukraine, the 115 00:05:51,406 --> 00:05:56,395 Speaker 1: invasion in 2022 when every single independent Russian language media 116 00:05:56,406 --> 00:06:00,395 Speaker 1: outlet was shut down, they are now operating outside of 117 00:06:00,406 --> 00:06:03,156 Speaker 1: the country. So there, there are still sources of information, 118 00:06:03,246 --> 00:06:05,755 Speaker 1: but they're much harder to access inside Russia. Now, 119 00:06:06,738 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 1: now the presidential election, it's just around the corner and 120 00:06:09,850 --> 00:06:13,260 Speaker 1: observers are saying, look, we already know who the winner 121 00:06:13,269 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: is going to be. You know, Mr Putin has already 122 00:06:15,779 --> 00:06:18,809 Speaker 1: been either president or Prime Minister since the last day 123 00:06:18,820 --> 00:06:22,399 Speaker 1: of 1999. And if he wins this time, he could 124 00:06:22,410 --> 00:06:27,789 Speaker 1: potentially lead until 2036. That's another 12 years. Is this election. 125 00:06:27,799 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: Just a formality. Julia, 126 00:06:30,170 --> 00:06:32,969 Speaker 1: I think it is, it's definitely a formality in the 127 00:06:32,980 --> 00:06:36,010 Speaker 1: sense that yes, there is a foregone conclusion. We know 128 00:06:36,019 --> 00:06:37,910 Speaker 1: that Vladimir Putin is going to win 129 00:06:38,178 --> 00:06:40,910 Speaker 1: for President Putin himself. I think he sees this as 130 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,558 Speaker 1: a legitimizing exercise. It is important for him to show 131 00:06:44,570 --> 00:06:46,399 Speaker 1: the world and to show the Russian people that he 132 00:06:46,410 --> 00:06:49,018 Speaker 1: has a mandate. This is not a democracy in the 133 00:06:49,029 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: sense that we would understand it in many parts of 134 00:06:51,170 --> 00:06:54,678 Speaker 1: the world. This is very much a managed country where 135 00:06:54,690 --> 00:06:57,519 Speaker 1: the idea of opposition is, is kind of fabricated. Even 136 00:06:57,529 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 1: the candidates that are on the ballot alongside Vladimir Putin 137 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:03,238 Speaker 1: are ones that have the tacit approval of the Kremlin. 138 00:07:03,500 --> 00:07:07,380 Speaker 1: And I think the point of holding these exercises is 139 00:07:07,390 --> 00:07:10,190 Speaker 1: not only to show that Putin has support but also 140 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:12,140 Speaker 1: to show that there is a lack of alternatives. And 141 00:07:12,149 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: that is something that we've seen 142 00:07:13,700 --> 00:07:17,279 Speaker 1: develop over the course of Vladimir Putin's tenure. We've seen 143 00:07:17,290 --> 00:07:19,869 Speaker 1: Alexei Navalny attempt to run for president and be blocked 144 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,179 Speaker 1: from doing so back in 2018, everybody who is on 145 00:07:23,190 --> 00:07:26,029 Speaker 1: the ballot, as I say is a managed opposition candidate. 146 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,679 Speaker 1: So for President Putin, he wants to say, not only 147 00:07:28,690 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: do does he have the support, but he's the only 148 00:07:31,049 --> 00:07:33,529 Speaker 1: person who could have that support. And for him, I 149 00:07:33,540 --> 00:07:36,450 Speaker 1: think the the real thing to watch, although there are 150 00:07:36,459 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: many reasons why it's also a slightly artificial 151 00:07:38,700 --> 00:07:41,279 Speaker 1: figure is the turnout. There's one pollster that's a state 152 00:07:41,290 --> 00:07:44,350 Speaker 1: run pollster vizion is estimating that turnout could be as 153 00:07:44,359 --> 00:07:47,359 Speaker 1: high as 80% which would be a really high number. 154 00:07:47,459 --> 00:07:49,529 Speaker 1: That will be something that President Putin is obviously going 155 00:07:49,540 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: to point to. But that should also be contextualized with 156 00:07:52,489 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: the fact that state run employees are forced to vote. 157 00:07:55,019 --> 00:07:57,630 Speaker 1: So they will be bussed to the polls by their employers. 158 00:07:57,660 --> 00:07:59,369 Speaker 1: And so that is something to consider as well. And 159 00:07:59,380 --> 00:08:01,570 Speaker 1: there are also many people who feel pressured to vote 160 00:08:01,579 --> 00:08:03,589 Speaker 1: even if they're not explicitly forced to do so. 161 00:08:03,859 --> 00:08:06,290 Speaker 1: So, yes, it is really just a formality, a box 162 00:08:06,299 --> 00:08:09,380 Speaker 1: checking exercise. But the interesting thing I think also to 163 00:08:09,390 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: bear in mind is that when Alexei Navalny was still alive, 164 00:08:12,170 --> 00:08:15,399 Speaker 1: he didn't actually call for Russians to boycott the vote. He, 165 00:08:15,410 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: he did suggest that they still continue to go but 166 00:08:18,010 --> 00:08:20,790 Speaker 1: rather to vote for anybody other than Putin to put 167 00:08:20,799 --> 00:08:21,190 Speaker 1: their name 168 00:08:21,554 --> 00:08:24,575 Speaker 1: the second most likely candidate to win the smart voting 169 00:08:24,584 --> 00:08:26,565 Speaker 1: tactic as he called it. And that was something that 170 00:08:26,575 --> 00:08:29,584 Speaker 1: had some limited success in certain parts of the country. 171 00:08:29,704 --> 00:08:31,755 Speaker 1: But so even though we know what's going to happen, 172 00:08:31,765 --> 00:08:34,465 Speaker 1: it is very much controlled, there are still voices in 173 00:08:34,474 --> 00:08:37,315 Speaker 1: the country who believe it is a worthwhile exercise to 174 00:08:37,325 --> 00:08:39,395 Speaker 1: go to the polls and cast your ballot. Yeah, it 175 00:08:39,405 --> 00:08:42,265 Speaker 1: makes you wonder how many votes Nadi Eddin would have garnered. 176 00:08:42,275 --> 00:08:44,505 Speaker 1: Had he been allowed to run in this election. 177 00:08:44,789 --> 00:08:48,159 Speaker 1: Ok. So when Russians head to the polls and there 178 00:08:48,169 --> 00:08:52,319 Speaker 1: is effectively only one option on that ballot. What issues 179 00:08:52,330 --> 00:08:55,469 Speaker 1: are they considering, you know, how invested are they in 180 00:08:55,479 --> 00:08:57,969 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine, for example, or are other things 181 00:08:57,979 --> 00:08:59,210 Speaker 1: more top of mind for them? 182 00:08:59,969 --> 00:09:02,989 Speaker 1: The war in Ukraine will loom large. Certainly over this election. 183 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,830 Speaker 1: I think there are definitely people who are concerned about 184 00:09:07,059 --> 00:09:09,900 Speaker 1: the prospect of a second round of mobilization. That was 185 00:09:09,909 --> 00:09:12,619 Speaker 1: something that was deeply unpopular when it was announced in 186 00:09:12,630 --> 00:09:16,348 Speaker 1: September 2022. We did see protests notably 187 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,140 Speaker 1: among segments of society, we wouldn't necessarily have seen protesting before. 188 00:09:20,270 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: So that's gonna be something that people are, are keen 189 00:09:22,409 --> 00:09:25,340 Speaker 1: to make their voices heard about. But there are also 190 00:09:25,349 --> 00:09:29,179 Speaker 1: really more kind of intrinsic concerns about the economy. You know, 191 00:09:29,190 --> 00:09:32,150 Speaker 1: despite all the rhetoric we hear from Vladimir Putin about 192 00:09:32,159 --> 00:09:32,819 Speaker 1: the fact that 193 00:09:33,130 --> 00:09:35,590 Speaker 1: the economy is doing well that it has sanctioned proofed 194 00:09:35,599 --> 00:09:38,429 Speaker 1: itself that it's growing, which it is, but it's growing 195 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,780 Speaker 1: from a very low base and it's growing much less 196 00:09:40,789 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 1: than we would have expected it to had the war 197 00:09:42,849 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 1: in Ukraine not happened. There is still a pretty high 198 00:09:45,210 --> 00:09:48,229 Speaker 1: poverty rate in Russia which President Putin acknowledged himself in 199 00:09:48,239 --> 00:09:51,289 Speaker 1: his recent Federal Assembly address. It's a 9% poverty rate. 200 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:53,950 Speaker 1: It's much higher for large families, which was something he's 201 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,369 Speaker 1: very concerned about. He wants to see the birth rate 202 00:09:56,380 --> 00:09:58,830 Speaker 1: go up. So he has been offering measures to the 203 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,630 Speaker 1: Russian people to try to incentivize them to have more Children. 204 00:10:01,859 --> 00:10:05,130 Speaker 1: So the economy is certainly very high on many people's minds. 205 00:10:05,140 --> 00:10:08,358 Speaker 1: We've seen, you know, tax breaks and preferential mortgages announced 206 00:10:08,369 --> 00:10:11,718 Speaker 1: recently as a kind of pre election sweetener. And you know, 207 00:10:11,729 --> 00:10:13,598 Speaker 1: people that our colleagues have been speaking to on the 208 00:10:13,609 --> 00:10:16,359 Speaker 1: ground in Moscow have really pointed to the fact that 209 00:10:16,369 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: they want to see family prioritized and the stability of 210 00:10:19,210 --> 00:10:20,909 Speaker 1: the country. And those are some of the things they 211 00:10:20,919 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 1: say that they're going to be voting on at this election. 212 00:10:26,210 --> 00:10:30,608 Speaker 1: Strengthening support of the family, strengthening the workforce potential are 213 00:10:30,619 --> 00:10:33,599 Speaker 1: the key issues. If there are people and they are 214 00:10:33,609 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 1: strong and well, then the territories and cities will develop 215 00:10:37,090 --> 00:10:41,239 Speaker 1: and the country will develop as well. I think the 216 00:10:41,250 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: emphasis should be on education, health care and on family support, 217 00:10:45,650 --> 00:10:46,919 Speaker 1: that's really key. 218 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:48,820 Speaker 1: And so there are going to be a lot of 219 00:10:48,830 --> 00:10:52,210 Speaker 1: challenges that Russians are facing this year. We have seen 220 00:10:52,219 --> 00:10:55,369 Speaker 1: a country where the kind of economic impact has been 221 00:10:55,380 --> 00:10:58,250 Speaker 1: shielded to a certain extent. The Russian people have been 222 00:10:58,260 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: shielded from seeing the economic impact of sanctions. The government 223 00:11:01,409 --> 00:11:04,619 Speaker 1: has really taken pains to try to mitigate those impacts 224 00:11:04,630 --> 00:11:07,090 Speaker 1: on people's daily lives. But of course, inflation has been 225 00:11:07,099 --> 00:11:09,909 Speaker 1: pretty high in Russia. It's falling now, but it's kind 226 00:11:09,919 --> 00:11:12,500 Speaker 1: of stabilizing, it's not falling as much as, as the 227 00:11:12,510 --> 00:11:13,929 Speaker 1: central bank would like to see. 228 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,979 Speaker 1: And we are also likely to see an impact of 229 00:11:16,989 --> 00:11:21,030 Speaker 1: the lack of gas demand from Russia. International gas exports 230 00:11:21,099 --> 00:11:24,619 Speaker 1: have subsidized the domestic prices for a really long time. 231 00:11:24,630 --> 00:11:27,299 Speaker 1: So energy prices in Russia have always been really, really 232 00:11:27,309 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: cheap for, for Russians that's likely to change now because 233 00:11:31,090 --> 00:11:32,510 Speaker 1: we saw last year that 234 00:11:32,635 --> 00:11:35,155 Speaker 1: a prom the state energy, the state gas company suffered 235 00:11:35,164 --> 00:11:37,804 Speaker 1: losses of 40%. And that means that there's a lot 236 00:11:37,815 --> 00:11:42,085 Speaker 1: less headroom for those earnings to supplement and, and subsidize 237 00:11:42,094 --> 00:11:44,945 Speaker 1: the domestic gas intake. So we're going to see those 238 00:11:44,955 --> 00:11:46,715 Speaker 1: prices go up. That's gonna make things a little bit 239 00:11:46,724 --> 00:11:49,505 Speaker 1: harder for Russian people. And they'll certainly be thinking about 240 00:11:49,515 --> 00:11:50,895 Speaker 1: that as they go to the polls. 241 00:11:51,809 --> 00:11:55,599 Speaker 1: One thing that hasn't gone unnoticed is that anyone who 242 00:11:55,609 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: poses any sort of political threat to President Putin seems 243 00:11:59,650 --> 00:12:02,070 Speaker 1: to face an untimely end. You know, there was the 244 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,738 Speaker 1: leader of the Wagner group, mercenary force of Guinea Prigozhin. 245 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,070 Speaker 1: He led a failed mutiny and his plane crashed shortly 246 00:12:09,125 --> 00:12:11,455 Speaker 1: after. And then just last month, you know, you talk 247 00:12:11,465 --> 00:12:14,895 Speaker 1: about navalny, the opposition activist, he died while he was 248 00:12:14,905 --> 00:12:17,414 Speaker 1: in detention. And as I said off the top anti 249 00:12:17,424 --> 00:12:22,525 Speaker 1: war candidate and political veteran Boris Nadezhdin has been disqualified 250 00:12:22,534 --> 00:12:25,554 Speaker 1: despite his team saying they have enough signatures, they have 251 00:12:25,565 --> 00:12:28,895 Speaker 1: the support. What is Putin afraid of, 252 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:33,069 Speaker 1: I think Putin is genuinely afraid of any kind of opposition. 253 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,979 Speaker 1: He has allowed many people in the past to 254 00:12:37,500 --> 00:12:42,209 Speaker 1: challenge him in small insignificant ways. But anyone that poses 255 00:12:42,219 --> 00:12:45,500 Speaker 1: a genuine threat to his power, he wants to control 256 00:12:45,510 --> 00:12:47,968 Speaker 1: and put down. And I think Yevgeny Prigozhin and Alexei 257 00:12:48,049 --> 00:12:51,319 Speaker 1: Navalny were probably the two biggest threats to him. And, 258 00:12:51,330 --> 00:12:53,309 Speaker 1: and that's why we've seen what has happened with the 259 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: two of them. You know, President Putin is a, a 260 00:12:55,409 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 1: strongman leader. He, he wants to show that he has 261 00:12:58,330 --> 00:13:00,909 Speaker 1: absolute control over the country. He sends very close 262 00:13:01,033 --> 00:13:04,783 Speaker 1: your messages about that saying that anybody who, who challenges 263 00:13:04,793 --> 00:13:07,732 Speaker 1: him will do so at their own peril. You know, 264 00:13:07,742 --> 00:13:11,142 Speaker 1: obviously he has a huge amount of power and arguably 265 00:13:11,153 --> 00:13:14,273 Speaker 1: doesn't need to control uh the situation as much to 266 00:13:14,283 --> 00:13:16,333 Speaker 1: the extent that he he does. But I think that 267 00:13:16,343 --> 00:13:18,672 Speaker 1: the fact that he has been involved in those kind 268 00:13:18,682 --> 00:13:22,393 Speaker 1: of situations where we we've seen these people die does 269 00:13:22,403 --> 00:13:24,372 Speaker 1: show that there is certainly some 270 00:13:24,565 --> 00:13:28,005 Speaker 1: or some concern that there is perhaps a threat to his, 271 00:13:28,015 --> 00:13:31,744 Speaker 1: his leadership that said when it comes to the election itself, 272 00:13:31,755 --> 00:13:34,015 Speaker 1: you know, when we, we see the the candidates who 273 00:13:34,026 --> 00:13:37,705 Speaker 1: are on the ballot paper, the Communist Party, the Nationalist 274 00:13:37,716 --> 00:13:41,385 Speaker 1: Liberal Democrat Party, the New People Party, all of those 275 00:13:41,476 --> 00:13:45,545 Speaker 1: managed opposition candidates, none of them really kind of pose 276 00:13:45,556 --> 00:13:48,026 Speaker 1: any challenge to him. They're all parties that 277 00:13:48,299 --> 00:13:52,159 Speaker 1: despite some nominal differences in policy from the ruling United 278 00:13:52,169 --> 00:13:56,339 Speaker 1: Russia Party tend to vote with the ruling party when 279 00:13:56,349 --> 00:13:59,369 Speaker 1: it comes to any kind of really substantial legislation going 280 00:13:59,380 --> 00:14:03,189 Speaker 1: through parliament. So ultimately, things just fly through the parliament. 281 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,789 Speaker 1: There is no scrutiny in the same way that we, 282 00:14:05,849 --> 00:14:08,309 Speaker 1: we see in other countries and having that kind of 283 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:13,239 Speaker 1: complete power does give President Putin the freedom to make 284 00:14:13,250 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: choices like invading Ukraine, which you know, for many people 285 00:14:16,010 --> 00:14:18,770 Speaker 1: would have been very unpopular and a very unlikely decision. 286 00:14:18,780 --> 00:14:22,690 Speaker 1: We saw, you know, experts, analysts, voices inside and outside 287 00:14:22,700 --> 00:14:23,299 Speaker 1: of Russia 288 00:14:23,739 --> 00:14:26,369 Speaker 1: insisting that that wasn't going to happen, insisting that it 289 00:14:26,380 --> 00:14:30,299 Speaker 1: was such a unlikely scenario, such a risky scenario for 290 00:14:30,309 --> 00:14:32,919 Speaker 1: President Putin, that it couldn't possibly be something that he 291 00:14:32,929 --> 00:14:35,150 Speaker 1: would opt to do. And of course, they were all 292 00:14:35,159 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: proven wrong in, in February 2022. So I think we 293 00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:43,250 Speaker 1: see him expanding his, his mandate, seeing that having this 294 00:14:43,260 --> 00:14:46,349 Speaker 1: kind of total control allows him to take those decisions 295 00:14:46,359 --> 00:14:48,789 Speaker 1: that probably would have otherwise been very unpopular. 296 00:14:49,049 --> 00:14:52,669 Speaker 1: And in his recent Federal Assembly address to the two 297 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:55,630 Speaker 1: houses of Russia's Parliament, he insisted that in the case 298 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,590 Speaker 1: of Ukraine, he was going to outlast his opponents. We 299 00:14:59,599 --> 00:15:04,409 Speaker 1: have to take some action including military action. But today 300 00:15:04,419 --> 00:15:09,510 Speaker 1: Ukraine virtually producers or manufacturers, nothing. They have been trying 301 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:13,469 Speaker 1: to maintain their manufacturing capability, but actually they have been 302 00:15:14,590 --> 00:15:22,049 Speaker 1: importing things for free, free loading, but it will come 303 00:15:22,059 --> 00:15:25,570 Speaker 1: to an end sooner or later, they will keep receiving 304 00:15:25,580 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: some aid. But the extermination, annihilation continues. Military power is 305 00:15:31,530 --> 00:15:34,239 Speaker 1: never far from his mind. And some say that is 306 00:15:34,250 --> 00:15:36,979 Speaker 1: what is driving the growing closeness between him and North 307 00:15:36,989 --> 00:15:38,330 Speaker 1: Korean leader Kim Jong Un. 308 00:15:38,739 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: There are all sorts of reports, Julia of Pyongyang making 309 00:15:41,849 --> 00:15:45,750 Speaker 1: arms for Moscow to fight Kiev even possibly in exchange 310 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,559 Speaker 1: for aid and for food. How do you see that 311 00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: particular relationship evolving 312 00:15:50,830 --> 00:15:52,780 Speaker 1: in a friendly one for a while? I was in 313 00:15:52,789 --> 00:15:56,289 Speaker 1: Vladivostok a few years ago when Kim Jong Un arrived 314 00:15:56,299 --> 00:15:59,330 Speaker 1: by armored train to meet President Putin, we saw them 315 00:15:59,340 --> 00:16:02,469 Speaker 1: meet again last year and you know, it is really 316 00:16:02,479 --> 00:16:05,969 Speaker 1: a kind of relationship of convenience, each one getting something 317 00:16:06,119 --> 00:16:09,109 Speaker 1: that they see as useful from the other. Of course, 318 00:16:09,119 --> 00:16:11,369 Speaker 1: it's a relationship with a, you know, triggering a lot 319 00:16:11,380 --> 00:16:14,190 Speaker 1: of concern in certain circles, not least the United States, 320 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,929 Speaker 1: which as you mentioned, has accused North Korea of providing 321 00:16:18,940 --> 00:16:20,450 Speaker 1: artillery and ammunition 322 00:16:20,659 --> 00:16:24,929 Speaker 1: to Russia to help support the war effort in Ukraine. 323 00:16:25,020 --> 00:16:28,150 Speaker 1: They've also been warning that there is a risk in 324 00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:30,770 Speaker 1: the opposite direction that in exchange, it's not just food 325 00:16:30,780 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: and aid that North Korea is getting from Russia but 326 00:16:33,090 --> 00:16:37,369 Speaker 1: possibly even technological know how that could be helping with 327 00:16:37,380 --> 00:16:40,650 Speaker 1: its nuclear program. Now, that's something that is really causing 328 00:16:40,659 --> 00:16:43,809 Speaker 1: a lot of concern as people watch this relationship develop. 329 00:16:44,030 --> 00:16:47,330 Speaker 1: You know, we saw that Sergei Shoigu has been meeting 330 00:16:47,340 --> 00:16:49,789 Speaker 1: with Kim Jong Un as well in Vladivostok. He's the 331 00:16:49,799 --> 00:16:50,250 Speaker 1: Russian 332 00:16:50,349 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: Defense Minister, they were talking about defense and security cooper operation. 333 00:16:54,650 --> 00:16:57,090 Speaker 1: Now Russia has denied that it's getting any kind of 334 00:16:57,099 --> 00:17:00,510 Speaker 1: weaponry from North Korea, but it's impossible to know given 335 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,169 Speaker 1: the secretive nature of that relationship and what it does 336 00:17:03,179 --> 00:17:06,050 Speaker 1: really for the Russian government is it gives President Putin 337 00:17:06,060 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: more options. North Korea may not be a particularly popular ally, 338 00:17:10,489 --> 00:17:12,770 Speaker 1: but certainly it is a country that it was willing 339 00:17:12,780 --> 00:17:16,270 Speaker 1: to do business with Russia that has a potential market 340 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:20,010 Speaker 1: for Russian goods. And that is certainly allowing President Putin 341 00:17:20,150 --> 00:17:23,609 Speaker 1: to kind of widen the base of Russian exports. We've 342 00:17:23,619 --> 00:17:26,889 Speaker 1: also seen that there is a kind of atmosphere of 343 00:17:26,900 --> 00:17:29,989 Speaker 1: countering the United States. Uh Both countries have a very 344 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:34,060 Speaker 1: difficult relationship with Washington and coming closer together, really puts 345 00:17:34,069 --> 00:17:37,930 Speaker 1: pressure on that, that perspective from the US. And what 346 00:17:37,939 --> 00:17:41,609 Speaker 1: President Putin often describes as the unipolar world order that 347 00:17:41,619 --> 00:17:44,310 Speaker 1: he says he's desperately trying to counter. It sounds like 348 00:17:44,319 --> 00:17:47,649 Speaker 1: we're talking about friends, you know, relationships, we all need friends. 349 00:17:47,660 --> 00:17:49,849 Speaker 1: Uh and Russia has China 350 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,660 Speaker 1: and I was doing research for this episode and I 351 00:17:52,670 --> 00:17:56,189 Speaker 1: came across a clip of President Putin where he explains 352 00:17:56,199 --> 00:18:00,339 Speaker 1: the dynamic, the closeness of the two countries. Listen to this. 353 00:18:00,349 --> 00:18:04,250 Speaker 1: This is Mr Putin, speaking to American journalist Tucker Carlson 354 00:18:06,910 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 1: China and us are neighbors. You can't choose neighbors or relatives. 355 00:18:11,170 --> 00:18:14,649 Speaker 1: We share a border with them 100 kilometers. We are 356 00:18:14,660 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 1: used to one another and we have been around for 357 00:18:16,890 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 1: centuries in terms of our co existence and the Foreign 358 00:18:19,969 --> 00:18:23,219 Speaker 1: Affairs philosophy of China is not aggressive. They search for 359 00:18:23,229 --> 00:18:26,050 Speaker 1: compromise and a trade off and the volume of cooper 360 00:18:26,060 --> 00:18:27,969 Speaker 1: operation in trade keeps growing. 361 00:18:28,630 --> 00:18:32,050 Speaker 1: So Julia, how do you see Vladimir Putin's relationship with 362 00:18:32,060 --> 00:18:36,130 Speaker 1: China evolving and developing if he continues to be president 363 00:18:36,140 --> 00:18:37,170 Speaker 1: for the next decade? 364 00:18:37,900 --> 00:18:42,479 Speaker 1: Well, famously, just before President Putin announced the full scale 365 00:18:42,489 --> 00:18:45,540 Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine, he was in Beijing for the Winter 366 00:18:45,550 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: Olympics where uh Russia and China declared what they called 367 00:18:48,810 --> 00:18:52,239 Speaker 1: the no limits partnership. And the fact that that happened 368 00:18:52,250 --> 00:18:55,239 Speaker 1: so close to the time of the invasion was, you know, 369 00:18:55,250 --> 00:18:58,050 Speaker 1: considered to be very significant. Uh Many questions were asked 370 00:18:58,060 --> 00:19:00,438 Speaker 1: about whether Xi Jinping knew what was about to 371 00:19:00,540 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: happen, whether he had tacitly agreed to it or approved it. 372 00:19:04,609 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: Um We also know that of course China has publicly 373 00:19:07,569 --> 00:19:10,180 Speaker 1: not taken sides, it insists that it is neutral when 374 00:19:10,189 --> 00:19:12,140 Speaker 1: it comes to the war in Ukraine, but of course, 375 00:19:12,150 --> 00:19:15,319 Speaker 1: its voting at the UN suggests that it is leaning 376 00:19:15,329 --> 00:19:19,609 Speaker 1: towards supporting Russia and also it's a really fruitful economic 377 00:19:19,619 --> 00:19:23,079 Speaker 1: relationship for both countries. Russia has been desperately looking 378 00:19:23,180 --> 00:19:26,179 Speaker 1: for any country that it can do business with in 379 00:19:26,189 --> 00:19:28,839 Speaker 1: the wake of Western sanctions. It is trying to find 380 00:19:28,849 --> 00:19:32,079 Speaker 1: new markets, new buyers for its oil and gas. And 381 00:19:32,089 --> 00:19:35,139 Speaker 1: China represents a really important part, a piece of the 382 00:19:35,150 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 1: puzzle for Russia. You know, in 2022 China accounted for 383 00:19:38,890 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: nearly 30% of Russian exports and 40% of its imports. 384 00:19:43,449 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: So it's a really big relationship and it's growing, 385 00:19:45,969 --> 00:19:50,839 Speaker 1: ever, ever bigger trade finally exceeded the target of $200 386 00:19:51,130 --> 00:19:54,989 Speaker 1: billion annually last year reaching 240 billion. And that was 387 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,169 Speaker 1: a target that the two countries had been aiming for 388 00:19:57,180 --> 00:19:58,589 Speaker 1: for quite some time. 389 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,449 Speaker 1: But ultimately, this is a pretty imbalanced relationship at the moment. 390 00:20:03,630 --> 00:20:05,669 Speaker 1: It's always been this way to a certain extent, but 391 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,270 Speaker 1: no more so than now, Russia's really dependent on China. 392 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,660 Speaker 1: China holds most of the cards. China has a lot 393 00:20:11,670 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 1: more options. It's kind of being a lot more strategic 394 00:20:15,410 --> 00:20:18,030 Speaker 1: in terms of its rhetoric. It's not taking sides at 395 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,890 Speaker 1: least visibly and it has really got the upper hand. 396 00:20:21,900 --> 00:20:25,819 Speaker 1: It is exacting some of its economic clout on Russia 397 00:20:25,829 --> 00:20:26,139 Speaker 1: and 398 00:20:26,425 --> 00:20:29,025 Speaker 1: more out of the relationship, particularly in the form of 399 00:20:29,035 --> 00:20:32,844 Speaker 1: of of cut price gas. We obviously saw Europe cut 400 00:20:32,854 --> 00:20:36,285 Speaker 1: itself off from Russian gas in the wake of the invasion. 401 00:20:36,295 --> 00:20:39,415 Speaker 1: That was a really big moneymaker for the Kremlin, for 402 00:20:39,425 --> 00:20:43,594 Speaker 1: its domestic coffers. China has really helped compensate for that loss, 403 00:20:43,604 --> 00:20:47,435 Speaker 1: but it's doing so at a discount really. But ultimately 404 00:20:47,444 --> 00:20:51,185 Speaker 1: going forward how that relationship develops, it will continue to develop. 405 00:20:51,194 --> 00:20:53,474 Speaker 1: We will continue to see President Putin 406 00:20:53,890 --> 00:20:56,910 Speaker 1: and Xi Jinping meeting and talking about this friendship that 407 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:57,698 Speaker 1: they share 408 00:20:57,900 --> 00:21:00,579 Speaker 1: the closeness of their countries, the fact that they're trying 409 00:21:00,589 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: to create a multipolar world order. But I think there 410 00:21:05,010 --> 00:21:07,910 Speaker 1: are certainly limits to this. No limit friendship. A really 411 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 1: big story that we covered was the death of Alexei Navalny. 412 00:21:11,410 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: And we saw pictures coming out of Moscow, thousands of 413 00:21:15,010 --> 00:21:17,899 Speaker 1: people chanting his name as he was laid to rest. 414 00:21:18,109 --> 00:21:21,729 Speaker 1: And he was actually previously asked in a documentary, what 415 00:21:21,739 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: his message to supporters would be if he died. 416 00:21:24,630 --> 00:21:27,329 Speaker 1: And he said very simply, they were not allowed to 417 00:21:27,339 --> 00:21:32,020 Speaker 1: give up. Could this presidential election provoke unrest Julia given 418 00:21:32,030 --> 00:21:34,900 Speaker 1: it's happening so soon after the death of someone that 419 00:21:34,910 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: many consider to be a hero, it certainly could. I 420 00:21:38,369 --> 00:21:41,599 Speaker 1: think a lot of people think the timing of Navalny's 421 00:21:41,609 --> 00:21:45,239 Speaker 1: death was actually intended to send a message right ahead 422 00:21:45,250 --> 00:21:48,079 Speaker 1: of the elections. That it wasn't a coincidence. That depends 423 00:21:48,089 --> 00:21:51,139 Speaker 1: who you ask. But there is certainly a risk. Obviously, 424 00:21:51,150 --> 00:21:53,329 Speaker 1: there has been a huge crackdown in Russia 425 00:21:53,435 --> 00:21:58,694 Speaker 1: on political protests. Any kind of dissent is criminalized. You 426 00:21:58,704 --> 00:22:01,694 Speaker 1: can't criticize the war, you can't criticize the government. It 427 00:22:01,704 --> 00:22:06,204 Speaker 1: certainly is a really perilous place to make your opposition known. 428 00:22:06,214 --> 00:22:08,185 Speaker 1: So the protests that we've seen over the last couple 429 00:22:08,194 --> 00:22:09,563 Speaker 1: of years have been really limited 430 00:22:09,770 --> 00:22:12,149 Speaker 1: and pretty much everybody who takes part in them is 431 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,819 Speaker 1: punished in some way. But what was interesting was that 432 00:22:15,829 --> 00:22:18,770 Speaker 1: at the funeral of Alexei Navalny on March 1st, there 433 00:22:18,780 --> 00:22:22,969 Speaker 1: were tens of thousands of people lining up at the 434 00:22:22,979 --> 00:22:26,389 Speaker 1: church to say farewell to someone that they considered to 435 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,469 Speaker 1: be a hero. You know, Alexei Navalny has AAA mixed 436 00:22:29,479 --> 00:22:30,339 Speaker 1: reputation in Russia, 437 00:22:30,439 --> 00:22:34,459 Speaker 1: not everybody supports him even if they were opposition minded. 438 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,420 Speaker 1: But there are many people who really did want him 439 00:22:36,430 --> 00:22:39,550 Speaker 1: to become the next president of Russia. And the queues 440 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,319 Speaker 1: of people we saw outside that church, outside that cemetery 441 00:22:43,329 --> 00:22:46,698 Speaker 1: were not met with any kind of difficulty from the police. 442 00:22:46,709 --> 00:22:48,810 Speaker 1: They were allowed to gather there, there was a huge 443 00:22:48,819 --> 00:22:50,989 Speaker 1: police presence but it didn't interfere. 444 00:22:51,109 --> 00:22:54,389 Speaker 1: That said since then, there have been some arrests. We 445 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,438 Speaker 1: understand from one human rights group ovd info which has 446 00:22:57,449 --> 00:23:02,489 Speaker 1: always monitored protests and helped protesters with legal troubles afterwards. 447 00:23:02,500 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: They say that 100 and 13 people were arrested in 448 00:23:05,369 --> 00:23:08,129 Speaker 1: 19 cities across Russia on the day of the funeral. 449 00:23:08,339 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 1: And there have also been reports in some Russian language 450 00:23:11,010 --> 00:23:11,689 Speaker 1: opposition 451 00:23:12,209 --> 00:23:15,750 Speaker 1: publications outside of Russia that people have been identified on 452 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,579 Speaker 1: security cameras for taking part in the that funeral kind 453 00:23:19,589 --> 00:23:23,109 Speaker 1: of paying their respects that have then since been challenged 454 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,510 Speaker 1: under the law. So there there have been repercussions 455 00:23:25,890 --> 00:23:29,149 Speaker 1: as to what could happen on election day we've seen now, 456 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:34,910 Speaker 1: Alexei Navalny's widow, Yulia Naval Naya calling for people to 457 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,379 Speaker 1: protest on the last day of voting. It's a three 458 00:23:37,390 --> 00:23:40,409 Speaker 1: day long election, something else that has been criticized by observers. 459 00:23:40,420 --> 00:23:44,500 Speaker 1: But on the Sunday the 17th, Naval Naya has called 460 00:23:44,510 --> 00:23:49,469 Speaker 1: on anyone who wants to protest Navalny's death protest, Putin's 461 00:23:49,479 --> 00:23:51,150 Speaker 1: tightening grip on power 462 00:23:51,343 --> 00:23:53,993 Speaker 1: to turn up at their polling stations at noon. Of course, 463 00:23:54,003 --> 00:23:55,811 Speaker 1: there are 11 time zones in Russia, noon will be 464 00:23:55,821 --> 00:23:57,912 Speaker 1: different in every one of them. But for all of 465 00:23:57,922 --> 00:24:01,272 Speaker 1: them to arrive at noon, either to cast their ballots, 466 00:24:01,282 --> 00:24:03,282 Speaker 1: they can cast their ballots. She said for anybody that 467 00:24:03,292 --> 00:24:05,382 Speaker 1: they see fit, they could write Navalny's name on the 468 00:24:05,392 --> 00:24:09,123 Speaker 1: ballot paper, they could just stand in the polling station 469 00:24:09,133 --> 00:24:12,562 Speaker 1: as a kind of protest. And she insists that this 470 00:24:12,571 --> 00:24:15,412 Speaker 1: is a good form of protest because the government certainly 471 00:24:15,422 --> 00:24:16,692 Speaker 1: doesn't want to prevent people from 472 00:24:16,796 --> 00:24:19,455 Speaker 1: going to polling stations. She's hoping to see quite a 473 00:24:19,465 --> 00:24:22,276 Speaker 1: big turnout. There is certainly a risk to that as well. 474 00:24:22,286 --> 00:24:25,215 Speaker 1: But it's a sort of unorthodox form of protest that, 475 00:24:25,225 --> 00:24:27,036 Speaker 1: that she is planning. And it will be really interesting 476 00:24:27,046 --> 00:24:30,285 Speaker 1: to see how successful that is against the backdrop of 477 00:24:30,296 --> 00:24:34,326 Speaker 1: a really repressive situation inside Russia. But undoubtedly we are 478 00:24:34,336 --> 00:24:36,696 Speaker 1: going to see pretty heavy security and if there is 479 00:24:36,705 --> 00:24:39,786 Speaker 1: any kind of uh wider protest out on the streets, 480 00:24:39,796 --> 00:24:42,946 Speaker 1: then there will inevitably be a crackdown. Yeah, it'll be 481 00:24:42,955 --> 00:24:46,615 Speaker 1: interesting to see if people pick up nea's call to action. 482 00:24:47,060 --> 00:24:51,089 Speaker 1: You know, we recently had Ukraine's ambassador to Singapore, Katerina 483 00:24:51,199 --> 00:24:54,459 Speaker 1: Zelenko come into studio, she spoke to us and when 484 00:24:54,469 --> 00:24:56,949 Speaker 1: she was here, we asked her, why should the world 485 00:24:56,959 --> 00:25:00,290 Speaker 1: even care about what happens between Russia and Ukraine? And 486 00:25:00,300 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 1: she said to answer that question, you just need to 487 00:25:03,130 --> 00:25:05,739 Speaker 1: ask yourself, do you want to live in a world 488 00:25:05,750 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: where might is right. Julia how would you answer that question? 489 00:25:09,770 --> 00:25:12,479 Speaker 1: Why should we care about Russia and what happens in 490 00:25:12,489 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 1: this election? 491 00:25:14,219 --> 00:25:16,209 Speaker 1: I don't think the world needs to care about the 492 00:25:16,219 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: process of the elections. I don't think that that is 493 00:25:18,930 --> 00:25:24,020 Speaker 1: necessarily in itself important, but I think the outcome, even 494 00:25:24,030 --> 00:25:28,319 Speaker 1: if it is predetermined, does certainly have ramifications because every 495 00:25:28,689 --> 00:25:34,910 Speaker 1: presidential election that Putin wins legitimately or otherwise emboldens him. 496 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,979 Speaker 1: And I think the longer he is in power, this 497 00:25:37,989 --> 00:25:42,310 Speaker 1: will be when he wins become his fifth term of six. 498 00:25:42,609 --> 00:25:47,500 Speaker 1: And he has been extending those terms. He's been rewriting 499 00:25:47,510 --> 00:25:50,579 Speaker 1: the constitution to allow him to, to, to run again 500 00:25:50,589 --> 00:25:52,609 Speaker 1: when he wouldn't have otherwise been able to. 501 00:25:52,930 --> 00:25:56,250 Speaker 1: The longer he is in power, the more he appears 502 00:25:56,260 --> 00:25:58,619 Speaker 1: to feel that he has carte blanche to act the 503 00:25:58,630 --> 00:26:01,629 Speaker 1: way that he wants to, he points to having a 504 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,790 Speaker 1: big mandate. He says, you know, look how successful I've 505 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,069 Speaker 1: been politically. This is what the Russian people want despite 506 00:26:08,079 --> 00:26:09,889 Speaker 1: the fact that he knows perfectly well that it isn't 507 00:26:09,900 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 1: a free and fair election. And we've seen time and again, 508 00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:16,698 Speaker 1: his imperialist mindset, you know, very much borne out in 509 00:26:16,709 --> 00:26:18,708 Speaker 1: the invasion of Ukraine and 510 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,780 Speaker 1: his goal to take back cities like Odessa and Kiev, 511 00:26:22,790 --> 00:26:25,219 Speaker 1: which were once part of the Russian Empire. We've also 512 00:26:25,229 --> 00:26:28,978 Speaker 1: seen him stoke unrest in, in, in Georgia as well. 513 00:26:28,989 --> 00:26:32,979 Speaker 1: He certainly has ambitions to expand the scope of the 514 00:26:32,989 --> 00:26:36,500 Speaker 1: Russian borders. He annexed not only Crimea but parts of 515 00:26:36,589 --> 00:26:39,219 Speaker 1: mainland Ukraine, which are going to be voting in the 516 00:26:39,229 --> 00:26:42,530 Speaker 1: presidential elections because he has taken them into 517 00:26:42,630 --> 00:26:45,670 Speaker 1: the umbrella of, of Russia. So that is certainly I 518 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,589 Speaker 1: think of concern, you know, the longer he stays in power, 519 00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:52,469 Speaker 1: the the more elections that happen, the more he will 520 00:26:52,479 --> 00:26:55,770 Speaker 1: feel empowered to go even further in his actions. And 521 00:26:55,780 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: I think that has consequences for the entire world. And 522 00:26:59,050 --> 00:27:01,688 Speaker 1: I think for the wider world that the longer that 523 00:27:01,699 --> 00:27:05,479 Speaker 1: President Putin is in power, the more dangerous, he certainly 524 00:27:05,489 --> 00:27:06,130 Speaker 1: can become, 525 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,719 Speaker 1: you know, talking to you for the past 20 or 526 00:27:08,729 --> 00:27:11,649 Speaker 1: so minutes. It's very clear you're passionate about this country, 527 00:27:11,660 --> 00:27:14,939 Speaker 1: you know, a lot about this country. And I'm curious 528 00:27:14,949 --> 00:27:18,300 Speaker 1: if you have any plans to return to Moscow anytime soon. 529 00:27:19,300 --> 00:27:22,438 Speaker 1: I am full of plans, but they're all sort of 530 00:27:22,449 --> 00:27:25,260 Speaker 1: fictional at the moment. I don't have any plans to 531 00:27:25,270 --> 00:27:28,569 Speaker 1: go back any time soon. I would love to. Not 532 00:27:28,579 --> 00:27:30,739 Speaker 1: a day goes by that. I don't think about Russia 533 00:27:30,750 --> 00:27:32,979 Speaker 1: and it's usually with a pang of longing. I miss 534 00:27:32,989 --> 00:27:36,729 Speaker 1: it very much. And I think at this point in time, 535 00:27:36,739 --> 00:27:40,869 Speaker 1: given my professional, given my profession, given some personal circumstances 536 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: as well, I think it is too risky, 537 00:27:42,859 --> 00:27:44,780 Speaker 1: but I hope there will be a time when Russia 538 00:27:44,790 --> 00:27:49,198 Speaker 1: becomes a more open country when it becomes less dangerous, 539 00:27:49,209 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: not just for foreign journalists, but for the Russian people themselves. 540 00:27:52,810 --> 00:27:55,410 Speaker 1: And I hope that it can stop seeing enemies all 541 00:27:55,420 --> 00:27:57,599 Speaker 1: around it. It would be naive to say that I'm 542 00:27:57,609 --> 00:28:01,389 Speaker 1: certain that will happen. But for now, it remains a hope, Julia, 543 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:01,889 Speaker 1: thank you 544 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,550 Speaker 1: so much for sharing your experiences with me and also 545 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,459 Speaker 1: for setting the scene for what Russians are facing as 546 00:28:07,469 --> 00:28:10,069 Speaker 1: polls open on March the 15th. Thanks very much for 547 00:28:10,079 --> 00:28:13,349 Speaker 1: having me catch reports from all our correspondents on CN 548 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,229 Speaker 1: A's youtube channel and CN A dot Asia. And a 549 00:28:16,239 --> 00:28:19,489 Speaker 1: reminder that the TV, episodes of CN A correspondent air 550 00:28:19,500 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 1: every Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. The team behind this week's 551 00:28:23,170 --> 00:28:27,479 Speaker 1: episode is SA N Clara Ong Christina Robert Craig Dale 552 00:28:27,489 --> 00:28:30,530 Speaker 1: and myself, Teresa Tang. Thanks very much for joining us.