WEBVTT - Will COP26 deliver under the weight of expectations? | EP 53

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<v S1>The following is a C and a podcast. Welcome to

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<v S1>the climate conversations, I'm Jamie who I'm talking about COP26,

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<v S1>the annual meeting of the Conference of Parties to the

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<v S1>UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Negotiators have started converging

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<v S1>in Glasgow and in coming days, leaders will follow as

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<v S1>they seek to agree on all the key issues that

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<v S1>have remained unresolved since the landmark climate conference six years

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<v S1>ago in Paris, just as France hosted and led negotiations

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<v S1>in 2015 is the United Kingdom's time. It's time to

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<v S1>make this final push in the coming days. The context

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<v S1>could not be clearer. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

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<v S1>or IPCC, has in recent months laid out an even

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<v S1>more stark terms the code Red for Humanity through its

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<v S1>latest report, laying out the extent of the Earth's warming

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<v S1>and the role that we have all no doubt played

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<v S1>at the launch of the report. UN Secretary General Antonio

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<v S1>Guterres said there was no more time for delay and

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<v S1>no room for excuses not to take action. I count

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<v S1>on government leaders and all stakeholders to ensure COP26 is

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<v S1>a success, he said. So just what would success look like,

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<v S1>what's been done or not done in the last years

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<v S1>and what needs to be done in the coming days?

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<v S1>With me to discuss this is about the lobbying force

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<v S1>who works for the British government as head of Southeast

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<v S1>Asia COP26 strategy based here in Singapore. Isobel, welcome. Thank you.

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<v S2>Thank you for having me.

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<v S1>I'm going to jump straight into it and refer to

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<v S1>something that Mr Alok Sharma recently said. He's your boss,

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<v S1>I presume, as president of COP26. And he has said

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<v S1>over the last couple of days in my mind, he's

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<v S1>appeared to either manage expectations by seeing that achieving a

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<v S1>global climate deal in Glasgow might be harder than back

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<v S1>in Paris. Or, you know, maybe he was just setting

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<v S1>out the immensity of the task ahead in the coming weeks.

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<v S1>But before we get into that lay out for us

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<v S1>in broad strokes what the key deliverables for COP26 are

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<v S1>going to be that will make up this global deal.

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<v S2>The key thing we have to remember about Glasgow COP26

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<v S2>is that we are not seeking to have a new deal.

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<v S2>We actually are seeking to deliver on the Paris Agreement.

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<v S2>Paris Agreement was a milestone, a landmark agreement. The position

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<v S2>we are in now is to make sure that Glasgow

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<v S2>delivers on what Paris promised. It's a difficult task because

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<v S2>since the parties got together in Paris in 2015, can

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<v S2>has gas emissions have continued to increase and the impacts

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<v S2>of climate change have kept telling themselves already works. We

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<v S2>have massive impacts of climate change at the party. Glasgow

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<v S2>is a big cop running circles of five year cop.

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<v S2>Every five year you have a big cop where the

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<v S2>big agreement is made and then the years in between

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<v S2>the more boats monitoring progress. This one comes five years

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<v S2>after Paris, actually six years because we had one year

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<v S2>of delay because of going to this one actually is

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<v S2>looking at showing how the world's reinforces its commitment to

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<v S2>the Paris Agreement and actually demonstrates that it can deliver

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<v S2>on what Paris signed up. It's also the unresolved issues

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<v S2>in the Paris Agreement to make it actually work effectively.

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<v S2>There are things that the negotiators who have agreed to

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<v S2>Paris agreements to nail down. So that's the first thing.

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<v S2>It's basically Paris promised a lot and we are still

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<v S2>committed to these promises and we want all the parties

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<v S2>to still confirm their commitments to Paris. But Glasgow must

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<v S2>deliver on what Paris promises. The second key objective for

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<v S2>COP26 is about keeping this 1.5 degrees alive because since

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<v S2>the Paris Agreement was signed, the world has not done enough.

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<v S2>Emissions have continued to increase, and the IPCC has issued

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<v S2>a report of its summer in August showing that the

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<v S2>world is not on track to keep 1.5 degrees alive. Therefore,

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<v S2>we must step up the actions before the window for

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<v S2>action is closing because we actually must reduce the greenhouse

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<v S2>gas emissions by half by 2030 and move globally to

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<v S2>a net carbon emissions by 2050. And the trajectory now

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<v S2>is still in a remote region, especially in Asia and

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<v S2>Southeast Asia. We need to keep this 1.5 goal that

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<v S2>was set at Paris the lies and show that countries

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<v S2>come to the table with commitments to keep this alive,

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<v S2>and we will do that through actions across different sectors

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<v S2>that contribute the most for the reasons gas emissions, the

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<v S2>power sector, deep forests and land use sectors. These are

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<v S2>key target sectors where we must show that we are

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<v S2>committed to reduce emissions. The last, so let's would say,

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<v S2>is that because of COVID, it will not really feel

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<v S2>like your normal cop health safety rules will be straight

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<v S2>and stringent, and we have to do that to ensure

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<v S2>that we can have a physical cop and safeguarded irrigation.

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<v S2>So we really have to develop code that is transparent,

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<v S2>inclusive and driven by the parties who need to be

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<v S2>there to negotiate. So it's not an easy task, but

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<v S2>I think we've set ourselves in a good position to

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<v S2>get there.

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<v S1>You've raised many, many issues and I hope to get

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<v S1>into all of them, including the last thing that you

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<v S1>mentioned about how the negotiations actually take place. But let

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<v S1>me jump on a first question before that, and that

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<v S1>relates to obviously the ambition and the targets that I

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<v S1>have already been put up, which, as you allude to

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<v S1>need to be improved on NDCs, is what they're called

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<v S1>nationally determined contributions. They've all been submitted, but there have

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<v S1>been continual calls for people to bring improved contributions to

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<v S1>the table. Are you expecting anything between now and two

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<v S1>to three weeks time in terms of more ambitious targets?

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<v S1>We saw recently that Australia has now spoken about net

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<v S1>zero emissions by 2050, but what else might you realistically

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<v S1>expect

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<v S2>under the Paris Agreement? All the parties have a legal

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<v S2>obligation to submit their indices. This is basically each country

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<v S2>setting for themselves their targets in terms of reducing their

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<v S2>greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the countries have set these.

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<v S2>In South East Asia, for instance, 10 countries have submitted

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<v S2>their budgets in. Seemed to the unit to proceed and

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<v S2>monitor them where we are at this stage is that

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<v S2>if you look at some of the indices, he still

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<v S2>doesn't keep us on a trajectory to 1.5 degrees, not

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<v S2>even a two degree trajectory. So there's still more that

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<v S2>needs to be done. And these only see look at 2030.

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<v S2>By 2030, this is really the Typekit where we have

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<v S2>to bend the curve, bend the curve of emissions. So

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<v S2>shifting from globally increasing emissions to actually globally decreasing emissions

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<v S2>and then the steep dawn curve to keep 1.5 degrees alive,

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<v S2>we're expecting a number of key countries to come to

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<v S2>Glasgow with increased ambition. So I won't be able to

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<v S2>tell you which countries they funding because that will be

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<v S2>for the announcement. Yes, but we can't really expecting some

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<v S2>countries to step up. We've already seen countries that we

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<v S2>were not expecting to step up when we took the

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<v S2>presidency about a year and a half ago, and we've

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<v S2>seen them come to the table, increase the ambition. So

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<v S2>I think we see that there is a clear process

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<v S2>of ambition raising that is happening. When you talk about conditions,

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<v S2>we have to consider as the nation is set for

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<v S2>2030 and these are the indices and then the big

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<v S2>announcement that we looking at as well are these net

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<v S2>zero announcements. And as you know, this net zero is

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<v S2>about 2050, so we're looking at a bit longer term.

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<v S2>But the IPCC told us is that we have to

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<v S2>reach net zero globally by 2050. Some countries may do

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<v S2>it later, but globally the bulk of the emissions have

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<v S2>to reach net zero by 2050. And that's where we

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<v S2>were expecting a number of countries who have not yet

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<v S2>spoken on net zero to come to cope with announcements

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<v S2>on when it would reach net zero. The countries that

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<v S2>have committed to net zero account for about 75 percent

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<v S2>of the global greenhouse gas emissions and around 80 percent

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<v S2>of the global GDP. And when we took our presidency

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<v S2>in December 2019, the coverage was less than 30 percent

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<v S2>of the GDP. So we've already achieved massively over the

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<v S2>last year and a half, and it is definitely a

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<v S2>trajectory of increasing ambition.

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<v S1>As you say, the job of a president is to

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<v S1>help push things along as it relates to ambition and

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<v S1>targets to push all the parties along as quickly as

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<v S1>we can and as strong as you can. A lot

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<v S1>of work has already been done in the last couple

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<v S1>of years. But how much of it actually culminates now

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<v S1>and is it realistic always to expect the president to

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<v S1>be able to put the cats in this last couple

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<v S1>of weeks towards at least a good outcome in terms

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<v S1>of ambition and enhanced NDCs, whether we are looking at

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<v S1>targets for 2030 or even further to 2050.

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<v S2>That's the challenge of the presidency and to, as you said,

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<v S2>herding cats. We have 196 countries here. This is basically

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<v S2>all the countries in the world and there are some

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<v S2>difficult cuts in that match. So the role is really

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<v S2>to lead by example. So I think what the UK

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<v S2>presidency has been very firm on is really leading by

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<v S2>example announcing our net zero commitments, or NDC. Last week

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<v S2>we published on a dual strategy so leading by example.

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<v S2>I think it's really important to be a credible presidency.

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<v S2>The other element that's very important is building trust with

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<v S2>the other parties, especially parties that are more reluctant to

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<v S2>order tends to be more difficult to get around the

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<v S2>table and get to consensus. And that's what I look.

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<v S2>And what are you communities have done over the last

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<v S2>year and a half, you know, travelling around the world

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<v S2>where we could and virtually travelling when we couldn't really

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<v S2>speak with their opposite numbers and try to give the

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<v S2>defense some momentum. This sense of urgency that COP26 will be.

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<v S2>So it is a challenging role to sort of rule

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<v S2>where when we take the presidency, we have to be

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<v S2>neutral and be facilitating discussions. So it's not about taking sides,

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<v S2>it's really about facilitating discussions, facilitating consensus and being as

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<v S2>helpful to reach an agreement as possible. Luckily, the UK

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<v S2>has a long history of leading international negotiations. I think

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<v S2>we're quite well positioned, hopefully to achieve that.

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<v S1>I must imagine that it would have been extremely difficult

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<v S1>for the COP presidency to do its work in the

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<v S1>last 20 months. And because, as you say, so much

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<v S1>of the work in terms of negotiations happen face to

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<v S1>face happen at meetings, happen with travel happened with meetings

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<v S1>outside of the usual you F2Pool C circuit. Would you say,

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<v S1>therefore that COVID has sort of set back negotiations quite significantly?

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<v S1>And has that meant that the ball has been pushed

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<v S1>a bit further into the end of this year than

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<v S1>you might have liked?

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<v S2>COVID has definitely had an impact, and there's no denying

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<v S2>it has an impact not only on cop negotiations but on,

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<v S2>you know, when everyone in the. In fact, it has

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<v S2>is that crop has been delayed by one year, crop

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<v S2>was meant to be in November 2020 and though we're

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<v S2>having it in November 2021, so that's delayed by one year.

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<v S2>What did it allow? It actually allows couple of in-person

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<v S2>crop has to be in-person classes. A very difficult negotiations

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<v S2>are very sensitive one. Yeah, lots of interests and parties involved.

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<v S2>And there was a clear recognition last year in 2020,

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<v S2>not only by the UK, but by the Chilean existing

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<v S2>presidency and by the bureau that a cop has to

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<v S2>be physically. You can't have a virtual negotiations with so

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<v S2>many parties. You need to build trust. You need to

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<v S2>look at your negotiators in the eyes and that could

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<v S2>only be done in person. So the key impacts of

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<v S2>COVID is that we have to delay when the global

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<v S2>health system was more ready and not perfect, but more

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<v S2>ready to accommodate the physical copy, flu vaccine and so on.

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<v S2>That's why we we're having cop physically in Glasgow this week,

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<v S2>but with a reduced number cop, not like a usual cop,

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<v S2>it will feel different because of this your framework for

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<v S2>preparation over the last year. I wouldn't say that it's

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<v S2>been a setback. It's been like a change of ways

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<v S2>of working. Obviously, a lot of negotiations and diplomatic engagement

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<v S2>has to be done virtually, which is not the natural habitats. Diplomats.

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<v S2>The core of diplomacy is to meet people. Face to

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<v S2>face is to build that relationship, build that trust. We

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<v S2>have to do that virtually, which definitely wasn't easy, but

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<v S2>because only countries were in the same situation, we all

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<v S2>had to adapt. So having this extra year to prepare

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<v S2>was really useful to basically took more time to build

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<v S2>that trust and prepare for these negotiations. There has been

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<v S2>some physical meetings during the year, but limited to key

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<v S2>parties and key players that had to meet physically. We've

0:13:07.890 --> 0:13:12.630
<v S2>had a ministerial summit in December, so in July in London,

0:13:12.809 --> 0:13:16.980
<v S2>with key ministers and negotiators on some of the areas

0:13:17.250 --> 0:13:20.219
<v S2>of the Paris Agreement that still need to be resolved

0:13:20.220 --> 0:13:24.240
<v S2>and you have to proceed has organized some targeted physical

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:29.540
<v S2>meetings with the parties and negotiators that's actually had to

0:13:29.630 --> 0:13:32.880
<v S2>meet that particular set up. So it hasn't all been,

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.610
<v S2>which really has mostly been virtual, but there has been

0:13:35.610 --> 0:13:37.949
<v S2>some physical engagements over the last year.

0:13:38.429 --> 0:13:41.939
<v S1>Let me get into the actual nub of the negotiations

0:13:41.940 --> 0:13:46.050
<v S1>and the issues that everyone hopes will be resolved in Glasgow.

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.770
<v S1>One of the things that people talk about is Article six,

0:13:49.770 --> 0:13:53.970
<v S1>and obviously in these climate negotiations, that's only code words.

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:57.120
<v S1>It's almost like a secret language. Article six is said

0:13:57.130 --> 0:14:00.929
<v S1>to be an important part of it highly technical aspect

0:14:00.929 --> 0:14:03.630
<v S1>of the Paris Agreement, which you know helps government implement

0:14:03.630 --> 0:14:06.569
<v S1>carbon markets. Explain to us as simply as you can

0:14:06.570 --> 0:14:09.540
<v S1>perhaps what it means and where we're at in terms

0:14:09.540 --> 0:14:13.470
<v S1>of realistically delivering on an outcome. Why Article six in

0:14:13.470 --> 0:14:14.430
<v S1>the next couple of weeks,

0:14:15.059 --> 0:14:19.530
<v S2>there are lots of jargon abbreviation the article language. When

0:14:19.530 --> 0:14:23.010
<v S2>you talk about the Energy Policy Conference of the parties

0:14:23.010 --> 0:14:26.460
<v S2>so articulate as you say, it is the carbon market particles.

0:14:26.850 --> 0:14:30.150
<v S2>You have different sort of articles under Article six without

0:14:30.150 --> 0:14:33.150
<v S2>getting too technical. The purpose of Article six is to

0:14:33.150 --> 0:14:38.370
<v S2>set up a new framework for international carbon markets to operate.

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:42.630
<v S2>So that means the principle is that if you reduce

0:14:42.630 --> 0:14:46.830
<v S2>emission in one part of the world, then another part

0:14:46.830 --> 0:14:50.340
<v S2>of the world can claim that emission towards their targets

0:14:50.340 --> 0:14:53.780
<v S2>for their commitment to reduce emissions. That's a principle. It's

0:14:53.790 --> 0:14:59.640
<v S2>about international cooperation to facilitate reducing emissions and actually tapping

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.650
<v S2>into areas or parts of the world where reducing emissions

0:15:03.660 --> 0:15:06.690
<v S2>and cheaper than other areas. So there are parts of

0:15:06.690 --> 0:15:10.890
<v S2>the world where you have natural ecosystems that could be

0:15:10.890 --> 0:15:14.850
<v S2>used to capture much more emissions, while some developed countries

0:15:14.850 --> 0:15:18.840
<v S2>or industrial countries may have less potential to capture emissions.

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:23.280
<v S2>So it's about international cooperation on how to reduce emissions

0:15:23.490 --> 0:15:27.450
<v S2>and then creating a market for this carbon to be treated.

0:15:27.460 --> 0:15:32.310
<v S2>So that involves carbon rules about how you will recognize

0:15:32.310 --> 0:15:35.250
<v S2>the emissions from one country to the other. Rules about

0:15:35.250 --> 0:15:39.300
<v S2>how you will measure the emission reductions rule about how

0:15:39.300 --> 0:15:43.200
<v S2>you will report these emissions rules, about how to make

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:46.620
<v S2>sure that these emissions are additional to what would have

0:15:46.620 --> 0:15:49.590
<v S2>happened anyway, because you only want to capture the value

0:15:49.590 --> 0:15:53.190
<v S2>of additional reduction that you beings. There are points about

0:15:53.190 --> 0:15:56.370
<v S2>how to make sure that these emission reductions are permanent.

0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.310
<v S2>For instance, you invest in the new forest that you want. Basically,

0:15:59.460 --> 0:16:01.800
<v S2>plenty of forests, let it go for 10 years and

0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:03.900
<v S2>then cut it down because the think of your emission

0:16:03.900 --> 0:16:07.020
<v S2>would not be permanent. So there are lots of technical

0:16:07.260 --> 0:16:12.030
<v S2>issues to resolve about how this market monopoly. But what's

0:16:12.030 --> 0:16:14.940
<v S2>interesting in the Article six negotiations also is that it's

0:16:14.940 --> 0:16:19.620
<v S2>not only technical. Becomes very political, very quickly. And that

0:16:19.620 --> 0:16:23.310
<v S2>is why it is an area that has always been

0:16:23.310 --> 0:16:28.680
<v S2>trickier in the negotiation because political interests come into play,

0:16:29.010 --> 0:16:33.600
<v S2>especially about recognition of existing carbon credits, for instance, because

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:37.140
<v S2>there was another carbon trading system that has been operating

0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:41.070
<v S2>up until 2026 under the Kyoto Protocol, which was the

0:16:41.070 --> 0:16:43.800
<v S2>agreement before the Paris Agreement. But there was a lot

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.600
<v S2>of recognition about this failure and the limitations of that system,

0:16:47.610 --> 0:16:49.950
<v S2>so the new system is supposed to be better. But

0:16:49.950 --> 0:16:53.070
<v S2>some countries who have benefited a lot from the previous

0:16:53.070 --> 0:16:56.520
<v S2>system want to keep the benefits of their system as

0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.280
<v S2>much as possible. Poorer countries now want to make sure

0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.550
<v S2>that a new system becomes a perversion of empirically is

0:17:02.550 --> 0:17:06.540
<v S2>not the way polluted by the adverse elements in the

0:17:06.540 --> 0:17:10.290
<v S2>previous system, and that can become very political. The political

0:17:10.290 --> 0:17:14.790
<v S2>issues about transparency as well and how much information you

0:17:14.790 --> 0:17:17.359
<v S2>want to share with the other countries. So, you know,

0:17:17.460 --> 0:17:20.429
<v S2>it is very technical, but it becomes quickly, very political.

0:17:20.670 --> 0:17:23.800
<v S2>And that is why in the negotiation tracks, there is

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.940
<v S2>a technical track and there is a ministerial track that

0:17:27.180 --> 0:17:30.090
<v S2>you will have. The first week is mostly negotiators and

0:17:30.090 --> 0:17:32.790
<v S2>technical negotiations at the end of the first week. Of course,

0:17:33.090 --> 0:17:35.730
<v S2>they come together, come to a conclusion of where the

0:17:35.730 --> 0:17:38.580
<v S2>discussions lead. And then the second week is more when

0:17:38.730 --> 0:17:42.540
<v S2>ministers weaving into the conversations on the negotiations and you

0:17:42.540 --> 0:17:44.250
<v S2>need both tracks to progress.

0:17:44.820 --> 0:17:47.310
<v S1>So many of these things are technical, but in the

0:17:47.310 --> 0:17:49.830
<v S1>end all comes down to a political decision because they

0:17:49.830 --> 0:17:53.310
<v S1>are politically sensitive as well. Correct? So I would imagine

0:17:53.310 --> 0:17:56.280
<v S1>that as it stands, there probably has been a lot

0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.460
<v S1>of work done over the last few years since Paris

0:17:59.460 --> 0:18:03.600
<v S1>on Article six. Would you say that the political decisions

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:07.229
<v S1>that are left over that need to be decided on

0:18:07.650 --> 0:18:09.960
<v S1>in the next couple of weeks, the gaps are closer

0:18:09.970 --> 0:18:14.040
<v S1>will have to negotiate this sort of teed up situation

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.550
<v S1>sufficiently enough so that by the time the ministers come

0:18:17.550 --> 0:18:21.149
<v S1>or even the leaders come, there are enough areas for

0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.280
<v S1>landing or trade offs in other places.

0:18:23.790 --> 0:18:27.180
<v S2>We are within reach of agreements on the different areas,

0:18:27.540 --> 0:18:33.090
<v S2>so the gaps are definitely plausible. The technical negotiations have progressed.

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:37.630
<v S2>We've seen, you know, movements towards consensus areas, but I see,

0:18:37.650 --> 0:18:40.740
<v S2>you know, all these negotiations. You never know until the

0:18:40.740 --> 0:18:44.670
<v S2>last minute because you need in the way the pressure

0:18:44.940 --> 0:18:49.170
<v S2>of the negotiation. Well, having come to a deadline to

0:18:49.170 --> 0:18:52.320
<v S2>see things falling into place, but we are in a

0:18:52.619 --> 0:18:56.370
<v S2>better situation because we we could be and the way

0:18:56.369 --> 0:19:00.930
<v S2>we have structured the programme of COP26 with the leaders

0:19:01.109 --> 0:19:03.900
<v S2>coming first. So the first two days of COP will

0:19:03.900 --> 0:19:06.570
<v S2>be the World Leaders Summit that will be on the

0:19:06.570 --> 0:19:09.990
<v S2>first and the second plus November. And that is when

0:19:10.230 --> 0:19:14.640
<v S2>the leaders from over 120 countries are going to be

0:19:14.820 --> 0:19:19.530
<v S2>physically in Glasgow to really send a clear signal to

0:19:19.530 --> 0:19:22.530
<v S2>the negotiators to work together and agree on the best

0:19:22.530 --> 0:19:26.780
<v S2>ways and rules to accelerate the actions and resolve the issues.

0:19:26.790 --> 0:19:29.430
<v S2>I think that will really set the tone, and we're

0:19:29.430 --> 0:19:32.580
<v S2>counting on these 120 leaders who have accepted the invitation

0:19:32.820 --> 0:19:35.880
<v S2>to send that message. Then we have the first week

0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.690
<v S2>of negotiations and then we have ministers coming also on

0:19:39.690 --> 0:19:42.570
<v S2>the second week finalising some of the deals. And that's

0:19:42.570 --> 0:19:45.540
<v S2>something that most of the parties, a lot of them

0:19:45.540 --> 0:19:49.650
<v S2>are seasoned negotiators to the know how it works. And although,

0:19:49.650 --> 0:19:51.540
<v S2>as I said, it will feel a bit different this year,

0:19:51.750 --> 0:19:54.330
<v S2>inevitably because of COVID, which is still very much the

0:19:54.350 --> 0:19:57.270
<v S2>same essence of negotiation that will happen.

0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.540
<v S1>In negotiations, I suppose it is often said that nothing's

0:20:06.540 --> 0:20:09.480
<v S1>agreed until everything's agreed, right? So I'm going to get

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:11.669
<v S1>into the key things as to what the rest of

0:20:11.670 --> 0:20:14.879
<v S1>the everything looks like. Another sort of catch phrase and

0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:19.800
<v S1>key word that we always hear is finance. It's always finance, finance, finance.

0:20:20.100 --> 0:20:22.470
<v S1>It seems to be the same every year. Every time

0:20:22.470 --> 0:20:25.360
<v S1>there is a conference of parties, people talk about finance.

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:27.899
<v S1>It was before Paris was an issue. After Paris is

0:20:27.900 --> 0:20:30.750
<v S1>still an issue. Very quickly sum up where we are

0:20:30.750 --> 0:20:35.160
<v S1>at now in terms of parties ability to meet expectations

0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.070
<v S1>of the $100 billion a year that has been committed to.

0:20:38.550 --> 0:20:43.560
<v S1>And do you expect Glasgow to lead to some clarity there?

0:20:43.980 --> 0:20:46.890
<v S2>Yes, definitely. As you said, nothing you didn't until everything's

0:20:46.890 --> 0:20:49.380
<v S2>agreed in. There can be trade offs between different strands

0:20:49.380 --> 0:20:51.960
<v S2>of the negotiations because they were so lots of links

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:54.810
<v S2>between them. So obviously there are links between multiplicity of

0:20:54.810 --> 0:21:00.170
<v S2>common markets and finance and also how you monitor the indices.

0:21:00.180 --> 0:21:03.179
<v S2>So that's why it is very important to see how

0:21:03.210 --> 0:21:06.090
<v S2>the whole package. But as I said, if we don't

0:21:06.090 --> 0:21:08.040
<v S2>start from the thing, we start with the Paris Agreement,

0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:11.430
<v S2>that is already the starting point and it's about delivering

0:21:11.430 --> 0:21:14.840
<v S2>on that Paris agreement and making it work effectively. Finance

0:21:14.850 --> 0:21:17.200
<v S2>is always the tricky issue. It is a tricky issue.

0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:20.760
<v S2>You know, in international negotiations in I think in general

0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:23.550
<v S2>when we think of a COVID recovery source of our time.

0:21:23.550 --> 0:21:26.390
<v S2>And so you can't have a discussion on financing and

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.699
<v S2>you shouldn't because finance are very important. So currency is

0:21:29.700 --> 0:21:32.910
<v S2>one of the three pillars of the Paris Agreement on mitigation.

0:21:32.910 --> 0:21:36.600
<v S2>So reducing emissions. Second pillar, another patient. And then the

0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:39.840
<v S2>third pillar was on finance, and you need finance to

0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:42.629
<v S2>be able to deliver the other two pillars. So where

0:21:42.630 --> 0:21:46.020
<v S2>do we stand on finance? The Paris Agreement sets this

0:21:46.170 --> 0:21:51.840
<v S2>100 billion figure, which is basically commitments from all the

0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:57.930
<v S2>developed countries to commit to deliver 100 billion of finance

0:21:58.140 --> 0:22:01.889
<v S2>per year between 2020 and 2025. And then this figure

0:22:01.890 --> 0:22:05.429
<v S2>should increase to 2025. And that is one of the

0:22:05.430 --> 0:22:08.610
<v S2>reasons that negotiators will discuss in Paris. So where are

0:22:08.609 --> 0:22:11.699
<v S2>we now on this 100 billion? We're not quite there yet,

0:22:11.700 --> 0:22:15.300
<v S2>but we are building touching distance of it. So we've

0:22:15.300 --> 0:22:18.510
<v S2>seen over the last few months and weeks a number

0:22:18.510 --> 0:22:22.409
<v S2>of countries who have come up with increased level of

0:22:22.410 --> 0:22:26.040
<v S2>commitments the UK, ourselves, we have to commit all commitments

0:22:26.040 --> 0:22:29.550
<v S2>to the international finance. We have to choose eleven point

0:22:29.550 --> 0:22:33.810
<v S2>six billion pounds for the five year period. We see

0:22:33.810 --> 0:22:38.070
<v S2>that the G7 nations have committed to do more towards

0:22:38.070 --> 0:22:40.919
<v S2>this when it begins, and we've seen the US increasing

0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:45.510
<v S2>the commitments. Canada with Germany, lots of countries have already

0:22:45.690 --> 0:22:48.629
<v S2>showed that they will increase their commitments. We have a

0:22:48.630 --> 0:22:52.169
<v S2>working group led by Canada and Germany that will be

0:22:52.170 --> 0:22:55.740
<v S2>reporting at COP on the progress on the 100 billion.

0:22:55.920 --> 0:22:58.470
<v S2>There will be a report on the progress towards this

0:22:58.470 --> 0:23:01.260
<v S2>$100 billion and the one thing that I want to

0:23:01.260 --> 0:23:04.680
<v S2>mention on this one independent. It's not only public and

0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:09.150
<v S2>money from governments, it's also about mobilising private finance and

0:23:09.150 --> 0:23:13.050
<v S2>development finance from international development banks. We've just seen last

0:23:13.050 --> 0:23:16.540
<v S2>week that ADB has announced 100 billion contribution to commit

0:23:16.560 --> 0:23:20.070
<v S2>finance continues for between 2019 and 2030. So that is

0:23:20.070 --> 0:23:22.890
<v S2>20 billion more than what they had previously announced, with

0:23:22.890 --> 0:23:27.510
<v S2>the International Development Bank's increasing their commitment to international Islamic finance.

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:30.660
<v S2>We also see that the private sector. So as I said,

0:23:30.660 --> 0:23:35.550
<v S2>leveraging private finance is very important to deliver the needs

0:23:35.790 --> 0:23:39.720
<v S2>of the finance for mitigation and adaptation. And we have

0:23:39.720 --> 0:23:43.679
<v S2>launched through the Makhani, who was a former central bank

0:23:43.950 --> 0:23:47.850
<v S2>governor in the UK Islam, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for

0:23:47.850 --> 0:23:52.810
<v S2>Net Zero. And that alliance mobilised the financial sector to

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:57.000
<v S2>flow to net zero, and it now represents over 90

0:23:57.210 --> 0:24:01.010
<v S2>trillion in assets just in over a few months this year.

0:24:01.020 --> 0:24:03.330
<v S2>So we see that in the private sector is also

0:24:03.330 --> 0:24:05.800
<v S2>mobilising more and more, you know, to fit the bill.

0:24:06.060 --> 0:24:07.170
<v S2>These low carbon transition?

0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:10.450
<v S1>Yeah, I mean, the issue of finance comes up at

0:24:10.470 --> 0:24:13.770
<v S1>almost every cop, and it's something which developing and least

0:24:13.770 --> 0:24:17.730
<v S1>developed countries obviously look to in terms of commitments from

0:24:17.730 --> 0:24:20.700
<v S1>the developed countries to step up and as a signal

0:24:20.700 --> 0:24:24.930
<v S1>of their commitments. And one other thing which I should raise,

0:24:24.930 --> 0:24:27.989
<v S1>which is of interest to small and island nations, is

0:24:27.990 --> 0:24:32.340
<v S1>obviously the issue of again climate negotiator catch phrase loss

0:24:32.340 --> 0:24:37.680
<v S1>and damage. Explain briefly what loss and damage means, and again,

0:24:37.980 --> 0:24:41.310
<v S1>what progress has been made in the last couple of years,

0:24:41.310 --> 0:24:44.340
<v S1>which lead us now up to here and what you

0:24:44.340 --> 0:24:46.770
<v S1>think Glasgow can deliver on loss and damage.

0:24:47.100 --> 0:24:51.449
<v S2>It's really about recognising that even if we stopped all

0:24:51.450 --> 0:24:55.619
<v S2>emissions now. So even if we reach net zero tomorrow,

0:24:55.980 --> 0:24:58.850
<v S2>the impacts of climate change will still be felt because

0:24:58.850 --> 0:25:01.689
<v S2>two greenhouse gases are still trapped in the atmosphere. So

0:25:01.950 --> 0:25:06.010
<v S2>it's really. Countries will still inevitably suffer from the impacts

0:25:06.010 --> 0:25:09.070
<v S2>of climate change and the loss and damage that India

0:25:09.070 --> 0:25:12.340
<v S2>is about cognizant the loss and the damages that some

0:25:12.340 --> 0:25:15.670
<v S2>of the most vulnerable country face. Making sure that there

0:25:15.670 --> 0:25:19.659
<v S2>is enough finance for these countries to be able to

0:25:19.780 --> 0:25:24.100
<v S2>adapt each resilience in the face of the impacts of

0:25:24.100 --> 0:25:27.639
<v S2>climate change again is not only about finance, obviously, you

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.970
<v S2>know you need finance to do that, but you also

0:25:30.970 --> 0:25:34.360
<v S2>need a plan. If you are of another country, you

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:36.429
<v S2>need to come up with a plan to say, OK,

0:25:36.670 --> 0:25:39.540
<v S2>this is how we fight the impacts of climate change.

0:25:39.540 --> 0:25:43.390
<v S2>This is how I will adapt my community, how will

0:25:43.390 --> 0:25:45.700
<v S2>adapt my economy. This is how I will make my

0:25:45.700 --> 0:25:48.610
<v S2>country more resilient. So I think the flip side of

0:25:48.940 --> 0:25:54.310
<v S2>the finance from developed countries, it's about definable countries recognizing

0:25:54.310 --> 0:25:58.210
<v S2>what they need that money for and being ready to

0:25:58.210 --> 0:26:02.379
<v S2>use that money in an effective way so that money

0:26:02.380 --> 0:26:05.830
<v S2>can really go directly to where it is needed for

0:26:05.830 --> 0:26:10.000
<v S2>the local communities and for employment and livelihoods of people

0:26:10.000 --> 0:26:13.240
<v S2>who are the most impacted. It hasn't always been easy

0:26:13.600 --> 0:26:20.260
<v S2>to secure these national adaptation plans for adaptation communications from

0:26:20.260 --> 0:26:23.990
<v S2>some countries, some good neighbor countries who clearly recognize that

0:26:23.990 --> 0:26:28.420
<v S2>they needs help. But it's sometimes difficult to identify what's

0:26:28.420 --> 0:26:31.960
<v S2>to help build towards. There's been a lot of work

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:36.730
<v S2>happening in Spanish on adaptation and resilience and loss and

0:26:36.730 --> 0:26:40.840
<v S2>damage to really recognize what sort of project we need.

0:26:41.230 --> 0:26:43.840
<v S1>Yeah, I would imagine that this is probably one of

0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:47.680
<v S1>those issues which can be highly politically sensitive as well,

0:26:47.680 --> 0:26:51.340
<v S1>because some people use the word reparations. Some people use

0:26:51.340 --> 0:26:54.580
<v S1>the word responsibility, so it's going to be tough. Has

0:26:54.580 --> 0:26:57.879
<v S1>there been enough sort of closing of gaps between those

0:26:57.880 --> 0:26:59.800
<v S1>who would need the funds and need the help and

0:26:59.800 --> 0:27:01.990
<v S1>those who are in the position to provide it and

0:27:01.990 --> 0:27:04.780
<v S1>recognizing that there is a need to close this gap?

0:27:05.230 --> 0:27:08.850
<v S2>I don't really like them to produce the words reparation responsibility.

0:27:09.250 --> 0:27:13.320
<v S2>There is a responsibility, but it's a responsibly today that

0:27:13.330 --> 0:27:19.780
<v S2>everyone has to accelerate their actions to reduce climate change,

0:27:19.780 --> 0:27:23.710
<v S2>but also adapt to climate change. So talking about reparation,

0:27:24.010 --> 0:27:27.670
<v S2>blaming and others, that doesn't really help move the needle

0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:30.939
<v S2>and resolve the issues. So that's very much a spirit

0:27:31.030 --> 0:27:33.850
<v S2>of the Paris Agreement to the Paris Agreement was where

0:27:34.030 --> 0:27:37.149
<v S2>all the parties recognized that there is a common responsibility,

0:27:37.150 --> 0:27:41.980
<v S2>common but differentiated responsibility to actually act, he said about

0:27:42.070 --> 0:27:44.650
<v S2>some parties waiting to see what others will do so

0:27:44.690 --> 0:27:48.820
<v S2>for parties acting together. Obviously, some parties are better placed

0:27:49.030 --> 0:27:53.050
<v S2>to finance than other parties and about sharing and collaborating

0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:57.129
<v S2>and recognizing where responsibility lies and when we're shown where

0:27:57.130 --> 0:28:00.460
<v S2>our strengths and weaknesses lie to be able to collaborate effectively.

0:28:00.730 --> 0:28:03.910
<v S2>But that's much more the spirit of the international organization

0:28:03.910 --> 0:28:06.369
<v S2>since the Paris Agreement. It was not like that before.

0:28:06.369 --> 0:28:09.370
<v S2>Under the Kyoto Protocol, it was very much A and

0:28:09.790 --> 0:28:12.609
<v S2>B countries and very much an acquisition. I think that

0:28:12.609 --> 0:28:16.060
<v S2>was really changed in Paris. This was his recognition that

0:28:16.060 --> 0:28:18.100
<v S2>it is a common issue and that we can only

0:28:18.100 --> 0:28:20.830
<v S2>solve it if we work together. Finance has to flow

0:28:20.830 --> 0:28:23.950
<v S2>from some countries to the. It's support flowing to the

0:28:23.950 --> 0:28:28.240
<v S2>right place for the right purpose. And it's about taking responsibility.

0:28:28.540 --> 0:28:31.240
<v S2>Then there is this report that's a feature of the

0:28:31.240 --> 0:28:35.560
<v S2>Paris Agreement, which is the adaptation communications. So countries are

0:28:35.560 --> 0:28:39.700
<v S2>meant to submit adaptation communications to Germany, where they recognize

0:28:39.700 --> 0:28:43.030
<v S2>the need for adaptation resilience based on the damage that

0:28:43.030 --> 0:28:46.360
<v S2>they are already facing or that they think they will

0:28:46.360 --> 0:28:48.700
<v S2>face in the future based on projections. So things are

0:28:48.700 --> 0:28:52.630
<v S2>really critical reports. And finally, when you look at the

0:28:52.640 --> 0:28:56.469
<v S2>research on many and a lot of countries have to

0:28:56.740 --> 0:29:01.060
<v S2>find it hard to submit these national communications or a

0:29:01.060 --> 0:29:04.120
<v S2>more detailed national adaptation plans. So that's why a lot

0:29:04.120 --> 0:29:07.300
<v S2>of the international work now is about helping vulnerable countries

0:29:07.510 --> 0:29:11.260
<v S2>not only access finance but also understand how they can

0:29:11.260 --> 0:29:14.740
<v S2>protect themselves. A lot of support, not only on financial

0:29:14.740 --> 0:29:18.790
<v S2>terms with our strengthened of capacity building technical assistance. To

0:29:18.790 --> 0:29:23.390
<v S2>understand how you can protect yourself from these disasters and

0:29:23.440 --> 0:29:27.220
<v S2>how you can adapt and build your resilience to finance

0:29:27.220 --> 0:29:31.150
<v S2>is one thing. But I think building capacity, resilience and

0:29:31.330 --> 0:29:33.760
<v S2>technical assistance is a big part of the offer as

0:29:33.760 --> 0:29:34.780
<v S2>well to whenever countries

0:29:35.120 --> 0:29:38.830
<v S1>going to start closing off our conversation. It's been fascinating

0:29:39.310 --> 0:29:42.040
<v S1>and I'll talk a little bit maybe about process now

0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:45.970
<v S1>as we conclude. Firstly, explain to the layman what's going

0:29:45.970 --> 0:29:48.760
<v S1>to happen in the next couple of days. You've already

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:51.070
<v S1>made a brief reference to this in terms of how

0:29:51.070 --> 0:29:53.590
<v S1>the process is going to go and what the public

0:29:53.590 --> 0:29:55.900
<v S1>can expect in terms of the news that's going to

0:29:55.900 --> 0:30:00.640
<v S1>start emerging from Glasgow. That's one. And secondly, as will

0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:03.850
<v S1>talk about what you make about leaders. Who will or

0:30:03.850 --> 0:30:06.890
<v S1>will not be present in Glasgow for good and for bad?

0:30:06.910 --> 0:30:10.510
<v S1>Much of what happens at these meetings usually boils down

0:30:10.510 --> 0:30:14.040
<v S1>to news about leaders actions on the ground, right? And

0:30:14.050 --> 0:30:17.020
<v S1>when you look at Copenhagen in 2009, there was talk

0:30:17.020 --> 0:30:21.130
<v S1>about Obama and his secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and

0:30:21.130 --> 0:30:23.710
<v S1>then in Paris, it was Obama again and John Kerry.

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:27.280
<v S1>This is now President Joe Biden's time. It's unclear whether

0:30:27.280 --> 0:30:29.530
<v S1>President Xi Jinping is going to be there. Probably not.

0:30:29.950 --> 0:30:33.400
<v S1>But explain, as well as we conclude, the importance of

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:36.280
<v S1>having leaders stay and what their role will be in

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:37.180
<v S1>the final reckoning.

0:30:37.360 --> 0:30:41.860
<v S2>COP26 will formally open on Sunday, so the first that

0:30:41.860 --> 0:30:45.700
<v S2>will be when the negotiation will open. And then the

0:30:45.700 --> 0:30:48.220
<v S2>world leaders are coming on the Monday and the Tuesday.

0:30:48.370 --> 0:30:51.250
<v S2>So the World Leaders Summit is on the Monday and Tuesday,

0:30:51.250 --> 0:30:56.050
<v S2>and that is where we can expect over 120 leaders

0:30:56.230 --> 0:31:01.640
<v S2>coming physically in Glasgow and deprogram Ford Explorer Leader Summit

0:31:01.750 --> 0:31:06.280
<v S2>last for two. This will really allow these leaders to

0:31:06.520 --> 0:31:09.640
<v S2>send a clear signal to the negotiators about actually meeting

0:31:09.850 --> 0:31:13.930
<v S2>what commitments they are making political, basically sending clear political messages.

0:31:14.140 --> 0:31:18.070
<v S2>The beginning, of course, in terms of net zero commitments,

0:31:18.070 --> 0:31:21.820
<v S2>in terms of adaptation, in terms of finance, in terms

0:31:21.820 --> 0:31:26.890
<v S2>of some tricky and important policy areas like energy transition,

0:31:27.220 --> 0:31:33.010
<v S2>like zero emission vehicles like forest conservation that will be

0:31:33.010 --> 0:31:35.620
<v S2>the core of the World Leaders Summit. So you have

0:31:35.620 --> 0:31:39.550
<v S2>a plenary opening on the first day. So on Monday morning,

0:31:39.830 --> 0:31:43.060
<v S2>then in the afternoon, there is an event where leaders

0:31:43.060 --> 0:31:47.470
<v S2>are being invited to reflect on what Conference six will

0:31:47.470 --> 0:31:51.580
<v S2>achieve and also provide examples of success and solutions that

0:31:51.580 --> 0:31:54.760
<v S2>they experience in their countries. So starting with saying this

0:31:54.760 --> 0:31:57.060
<v S2>is how it works in my country, this is these

0:31:57.070 --> 0:32:00.040
<v S2>are the lessons learned from my country on the second day,

0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:03.220
<v S2>they will be two kind of theme events one on

0:32:03.220 --> 0:32:06.550
<v S2>forest and land use. And that's a very important moment

0:32:06.550 --> 0:32:11.740
<v S2>for countries to show the importance of linking climate and nature.

0:32:12.250 --> 0:32:17.229
<v S2>And that will be about leaders endorsing the declaration on

0:32:17.380 --> 0:32:22.000
<v S2>protecting forests and sustainable land use. And in the afternoon

0:32:22.240 --> 0:32:26.020
<v S2>there is a leader level session on innovation. So looking

0:32:26.110 --> 0:32:30.610
<v S2>at innovations in sectors like energy transport, the Agenda for

0:32:30.610 --> 0:32:33.560
<v S2>the World Leaders Summit is kind of a plenary, the

0:32:33.580 --> 0:32:36.100
<v S2>statesmen from some leaders. And then it will go into

0:32:36.280 --> 0:32:39.880
<v S2>details on some policy areas where we expect leaders to

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:44.410
<v S2>really show that they are taking commitments themselves. It's important

0:32:44.410 --> 0:32:48.100
<v S2>to have the leaders there. Obviously, we never have all

0:32:48.100 --> 0:32:52.030
<v S2>the leaders. I think we're ready, very happy with 120 leaders.

0:32:52.270 --> 0:32:55.750
<v S2>When we started thinking about hosting a physical leader level

0:32:55.750 --> 0:33:00.340
<v S2>event in November 2021, we thought it's infuriating and the

0:33:00.340 --> 0:33:02.920
<v S2>way 120. So I think that's a pretty big success

0:33:02.920 --> 0:33:05.770
<v S2>in itself. If some leaders are not able to come

0:33:05.770 --> 0:33:09.580
<v S2>and there are different reasons for COVID reasons, gender politics

0:33:09.670 --> 0:33:13.000
<v S2>reasons than their ministers will be there to being cop

0:33:13.240 --> 0:33:16.420
<v S2>and they will be giving their national statements during cop

0:33:16.420 --> 0:33:19.660
<v S2>and the negotiators will be there. We expect in negotiations

0:33:19.660 --> 0:33:23.380
<v S2>delegations from all the countries will be represented. So I

0:33:23.380 --> 0:33:26.120
<v S2>think this leader setting the signal at the beginning, of course,

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:28.660
<v S2>is really important that that's not the end, it's the

0:33:28.660 --> 0:33:31.690
<v S2>beginning of the cop. And then we'll have the negotiators

0:33:31.690 --> 0:33:34.870
<v S2>and the ministers who will carry on on their mandate

0:33:34.870 --> 0:33:36.940
<v S2>from their leader during the two weeks.

0:33:37.300 --> 0:33:40.480
<v S1>Well, you know, as all these negotiations go, they usually

0:33:40.480 --> 0:33:42.940
<v S1>go right up to the last minute and they'll be

0:33:43.330 --> 0:33:46.840
<v S1>long nights, early mornings, whatever it is, we all hope

0:33:47.200 --> 0:33:50.680
<v S1>that your presidency will be able to deliver a good

0:33:50.680 --> 0:33:53.459
<v S1>outcome in the meantime. Thank you so much, Isabelle De

0:33:53.470 --> 0:33:54.040
<v S1>lobbying for us.

0:33:54.130 --> 0:33:55.530
<v S2>Thank you, Jamie. Pleasure.

0:33:57.200 --> 0:33:59.870
<v S1>And thanks for listening to the climate conversations. Stay up

0:33:59.870 --> 0:34:03.350
<v S1>to date on CNN's coverage of climate change on CNN Asia.

0:34:03.530 --> 0:34:06.230
<v S1>You can also find this and other senior podcasts on

0:34:06.230 --> 0:34:09.830
<v S1>our website and on iTunes and Spotify. The team behind

0:34:09.830 --> 0:34:13.219
<v S1>this podcast are Christina, Robert, Lisa Ling and Erin Low.

0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:15.260
<v S1>And I'm Jamie Hall till next week.