WEBVTT - Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China snap into effect

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<v Speaker 1>Now CNA 938 rewind.

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<v Speaker 2>It's perhaps the biggest headline so far this week after

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<v Speaker 2>Trump announced the biggest uh tariffs so far on its

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<v Speaker 2>top three trading partners, Canada, Mexico, and China. Uh, his

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<v Speaker 2>commerce secretary, uh, Howard Lutnick though has signaled possible relief

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<v Speaker 2>for two of them in yet another backpedal on tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>are the three countries swiftly retaliated with their own levies

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<v Speaker 2>on a wide

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<v Speaker 2>range of US products. Of particular note is China, which

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<v Speaker 2>slapped tariffs of 10 to 15% on a range of

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<v Speaker 2>US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. Now

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<v Speaker 2>Beijing also added 10 US firms to its unreliable entity list.

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<v Speaker 2>Now for more analysis, we'll speak now with Doctor John Donaldson,

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<v Speaker 2>associate professor of Political Science at the School of Social

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<v Speaker 2>Sciences at the Singapore Management University. Doctor Donaldson, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for joining us this morning on the Morning Report.

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<v Speaker 2>The biggest question of the day right now, uh, Doctor Donaldson,

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<v Speaker 2>has the much feared trade war officially begun?

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<v Speaker 2>It's, it's begun. The opening salvos actually happened, uh, not

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<v Speaker 2>just today but just in the, in the last few weeks,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think, uh, the fighting has been joined if

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<v Speaker 2>we want to talk in war terms. Uh, this is unprecedented, not,

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<v Speaker 2>not in history, but over the last several decades, the

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<v Speaker 2>global trade architecture has been firmly in place.

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<v Speaker 2>And many countries, especially, uh, countries like the US has

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<v Speaker 2>have benefited greatly. uh, this is very consequential, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>even for far away Singapore, uh, which relies on the,

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<v Speaker 2>on the global trade architecture that uh has brought prosperity, uh, to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, to places, not just in Singapore but really

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<v Speaker 2>around the world. China and Canada have made its countermeasures known, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>Mexico set to announce this this weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking at their retaliatory levies so far, Dr. Donaldson, how

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<v Speaker 2>do you view their response? Can their respective economies actually

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<v Speaker 2>afford to slap those retaliatory tariffs?

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<v Speaker 2>I think they had no choice, you know, it's a

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<v Speaker 2>tit for tat game. If they did not put retaliatory tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>they would be um

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<v Speaker 2>You know, showing severe weakness, there would be absolutely no

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<v Speaker 2>incentive for the Trump administration to back down. Uh, prices

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<v Speaker 2>in all three countries are going to be increasing, and

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<v Speaker 2>so the pressure on all three leaders will be ratcheting up, uh, when,

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<v Speaker 2>when China, uh, Harriano, you mentioned all of these agricultural

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<v Speaker 2>trade goods, and there's no surprise there that, uh, this

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<v Speaker 2>will be hurting uh farmers.

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<v Speaker 2>are among, you know, Trump's biggest supporters, but also the

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<v Speaker 2>prices of basic goods are going to be increasing and

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<v Speaker 2>whether the US pop populists will allow this and will

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<v Speaker 2>be able to bear that, I think it's an even

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<v Speaker 2>greater question than what the Canadians and Mexicans are. This

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<v Speaker 2>is not a trade war that they started and I

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<v Speaker 2>think the, I think they're they're.

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<v Speaker 2>The population will understand that and are supportive of these

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<v Speaker 2>retaliatory moves, but I think most people really hope for

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<v Speaker 2>a return to the trade system that we had before

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<v Speaker 2>because it allowed countries to trade for what they needed,

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<v Speaker 2>and the, the, the, what do you call the system

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<v Speaker 2>before that if it was, you could call it a

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<v Speaker 2>system was to go to war with each other to

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<v Speaker 2>get what we need and trade is certainly much better

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<v Speaker 2>than war.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, these tariffs, Dr. Donaldson on Canada, Mexico, China, they

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<v Speaker 2>took effect yesterday and they were meant to happen earlier,

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<v Speaker 2>but there was a last minute deal that paused it.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we hear of the Trump administration signaling tariff relief

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<v Speaker 2>for Canada and Mexico. What do you suppose is going

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<v Speaker 2>on behind the scenes?

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<v Speaker 2>I've heard mixed signals. I mean, part of the question

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<v Speaker 2>is what does Trump want? Usually when you put or

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<v Speaker 2>threaten these kinds of terrorists, you are saying unless you

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<v Speaker 2>do X. From my understanding, Canada and Mexico have made

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<v Speaker 2>great strides on the kinds of things that the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration wanted. The uh the numbers of illegal immigrants trying

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<v Speaker 2>to are sort of undocumented people trying to come in

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<v Speaker 2>through the southern border of the United States has dropped

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<v Speaker 2>to almost nothing.

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<v Speaker 2>And then, uh, you know, the US, uh, is blaming

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<v Speaker 2>Canada in part for its uh fentanyl crisis, and, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>and Canada, you know, responds by saying quite reasonably, what

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<v Speaker 2>more do you want us to do? And, and ultimately

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<v Speaker 2>fentanyl is a US crisis. It's not because of uh

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<v Speaker 2>a porous Canadian-US border. Uh, in the meantime, uh, both countries.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the US exports more than $1 billion to

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<v Speaker 2>Canada every single day. Canada exports more than $1 billion

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<v Speaker 2>US dollars every single day to Canada and to have

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<v Speaker 2>that kind of volume of trade flow being disrupted is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a huge game changer and will have

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<v Speaker 2>a massive effect, not just on these two economies, but

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<v Speaker 2>on the uh on the global economy.

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Doctor Donaldson, you mentioned earlier that these countries,

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<v Speaker 2>they don't have a choice. They have to play the

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<v Speaker 2>tit for tat game, they're being cornered. If they don't

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<v Speaker 2>do anything, it's it's just a poor showing of, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>not standing up to the bully in in in a

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<v Speaker 2>certain sense, but ultimately, to what end though, what's the

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<v Speaker 2>end game here then? Who's gonna, who's gonna show hands first?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's, I think that's really the big question, Andrea.

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<v Speaker 2>You put your finger right on it. There's no real

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<v Speaker 2>answer even basic questions like what does Trump really want

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<v Speaker 2>now Trump has been pointing to, long been pointing to

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<v Speaker 2>things that are legitimate, that there are, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>trade imbalances, there's unfair, uh, trade, um, you know, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>rules that are happening really on.

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<v Speaker 2>All sides, but the, the, the institutions that have been

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<v Speaker 2>set up to resolve those uh trade disputes, the World

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<v Speaker 2>Trade Organization, nobody uh talks about the World Trade Organization anymore.

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<v Speaker 2>Normally when there would be a kind of a dispute

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<v Speaker 2>about trade dumping or other things like that, you would

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<v Speaker 2>go to the World Trade Organization, they would hear it

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<v Speaker 2>and they would adjudicate it um that that has.

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<v Speaker 2>Failed, uh, I'm not, but I'm, but I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 2>whether it would be fair to blame the WTO for that.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump has not really tried to go to the World

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<v Speaker 2>Trade Organization. He's blocking appointments of American judges to the

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<v Speaker 2>World Trade Body and really has crippled it, uh, and

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<v Speaker 2>maybe he's, I mean, he's never had faith in the

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<v Speaker 2>World Trade Organization, but um.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the trade wars cannot be our first step.

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<v Speaker 2>It the the these institutions and the concept of basic

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<v Speaker 2>trade between countries has been part of the, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>worldwide economic architecture for decades, and Trump has utterly upended that, and, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>I have no idea where this is gonna end, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's not gonna be pretty for anybody.

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<v Speaker 2>Another thing that we want, we want to take note

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<v Speaker 2>of with regard to the tariff threats, they have appeared

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<v Speaker 2>to pressure firms to invest in America. We're seeing Taiwanese

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<v Speaker 2>chip making giant TSMC planning to spend an additional $100

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<v Speaker 2>billion in the US. Is this a sign of more

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<v Speaker 2>to follow, you think, Dr. Donaldson, as Trump proof measures?

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's, that's what Trump hopes that American manufacturing

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<v Speaker 2>will take over for, uh, Chinese manufacturing or or what

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<v Speaker 2>have you, but number one, if that was in any

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<v Speaker 2>way efficient in terms of a cost, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>benefit analysis, but some of that would have happened before,

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<v Speaker 2>well before now, and the other is none of this

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<v Speaker 2>can happen quickly. And in the meantime, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it will take months.

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<v Speaker 2>uh, to replace the kinds of uh imports to substitute

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<v Speaker 2>for the imports that that the US has been uh

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<v Speaker 2>relying on and in the meantime, you know, what are

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<v Speaker 2>you going to do the the prices will, will go

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<v Speaker 2>up and consumers have not consumers, voters have shown that

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<v Speaker 2>they take prices very, very seriously. It was the number

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<v Speaker 2>one issue that the Biden administration uh failed to.

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<v Speaker 2>To manage some of that was real, some of that

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<v Speaker 2>was uh perception, but people's perceptions are important and when

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<v Speaker 2>prices go up and the prices of eggs in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States right now is really one of the most

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<v Speaker 2>actually one of the most important variables and should be, uh, utmost,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's just gonna go up from here on out, and,

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<v Speaker 2>and eggs is where it starts when, when the cost

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<v Speaker 2>of cars, with the cost of a lumber, when costs

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<v Speaker 2>of

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, everything that, uh, that Americans use every day goes up. Uh,

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<v Speaker 2>I wonder what how Trump, uh, will and how the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration will respond to that kind of pressure from

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<v Speaker 2>his own voters. Yeah, eggs being the new Big Mac

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<v Speaker 2>index for American spending, uh, it's very interesting turn of

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<v Speaker 2>events there. I think it was something like $30 in

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<v Speaker 2>uh in Ohio or something like that.

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<v Speaker 2>Um, going back to your point, Dr. Donaldson, about how

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<v Speaker 2>the cost benefit of actually doing business in the US,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly when it comes to manufacturing in the case of TSMC.

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<v Speaker 2>Clearly, not many companies can actually afford to do this

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<v Speaker 2>given the expense. So which other companies do you foresee

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<v Speaker 2>being able to afford having their manufacturing base in the US?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, if we look at Elon Musk, he's not

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<v Speaker 2>exactly um you know, dominating the EV market in the

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<v Speaker 2>US as much as he is in other parts of

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<v Speaker 2>the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's, you know, that's also a very

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<v Speaker 2>good point, but I think it's, it's not only companies.

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<v Speaker 2>So for instance, if you're an American car manufacturer, you've got, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>auto parts being manufactured all over the world, and that's been,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, uh, you know, part of the, of, of

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<v Speaker 2>the way to reduce the, the price of manufacturing cars.

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<v Speaker 2>And so it's not just companies moving in, but hoping that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, that, uh, you know, auto parts manufacturing will

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<v Speaker 2>come back into the United States, but trade is

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<v Speaker 2>Based on the system that each country has, has a

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<v Speaker 2>comparative advantage and low cost workers is not one of

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<v Speaker 2>our comparative, uh, uh, not one of the United States'

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<v Speaker 2>comparative advantages. We do have advantages. We do export quite

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<v Speaker 2>a lot and uh uh but but then countries that

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<v Speaker 2>have other advantages can trade with us and uh you know,

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<v Speaker 2>through that, uh, uh, countries do benefit. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of good reasons to be critical about the fairness of

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<v Speaker 2>trade in general.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, but this is not the way, uh, to solve

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<v Speaker 2>those kinds of imbalances. Uh, part of the question is

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<v Speaker 2>that when you're shipping goods all over the world, as the,

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<v Speaker 2>as the trade architecture has created, what's the impact on

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<v Speaker 2>climate change which with all of the, uh, petroleum being

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<v Speaker 2>used and maybe.

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<v Speaker 2>That's an issue about how we price uh natural resources,

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<v Speaker 2>how we price uh carbon and other things like that,

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<v Speaker 2>but sending out uh tariffs as well as pulling out of,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Paris trade, uh, you know, negotiations on climate

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<v Speaker 2>change are not the way to deal with any of

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<v Speaker 2>these problems and uh.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, beyond all of that, you know, is, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's hostility to our former allies, uh, his threats to, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, uh, make Canada the 51st state and, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>and take over Greenland and Panama. The, the, the thing

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<v Speaker 2>is we already have a military base in Greenland. We

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<v Speaker 2>already are importing raw materials from Greenland and it's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of like what else does is Trump really looking for.

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<v Speaker 2>Besides reasserting an American empire that has not been, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, salient for a century. Doctor Donaldson, another thing

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<v Speaker 2>that we want to talk about, uh, Trump wants to

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<v Speaker 2>reduce his exposure to Europe, which would mean a changed

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<v Speaker 2>relationship between the US and Europe. Meanwhile, China is seizing

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<v Speaker 2>the opportunity to woo Europe and fill the vacuum, as

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<v Speaker 2>one commentator put it, being the adults in the room.

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<v Speaker 2>What new shape will the global order take you think?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean that is a, you put your finger on

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<v Speaker 2>a really good question and right now today is uh

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<v Speaker 2>when all of the, all of the answers that were settled,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, in even as early as early as December

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<v Speaker 2>of last year, as recently as December of last year

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<v Speaker 2>are now up in the air. Why the US would

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<v Speaker 2>shift its attention from Europe and and increase its hostility.

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<v Speaker 2>threatening Denmark, you know, I mean, for goodness sake, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>and throw its lot in with Russia and North Korea. I,

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<v Speaker 2>I have no idea why and even Trump, I think

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<v Speaker 2>most uh not hardcore Trump supporters, but you know the

0:12:32.825 --> 0:12:35.825
<v Speaker 2>the the swing voters who voted for Trump did not

0:12:35.825 --> 0:12:40.814
<v Speaker 2>expect any of any of this, certainly belligerent, yes, certainly hostility, yes,

0:12:40.905 --> 0:12:41.385
<v Speaker 2>but the idea.

0:12:41.481 --> 0:12:45.981
<v Speaker 2>of taking over Panama and Greenland and Gaza and Canada

0:12:46.432 --> 0:12:49.322
<v Speaker 2>was beyond the wildest dreams. It's a brave new world.

0:12:49.432 --> 0:12:51.311
<v Speaker 2>Actually it is not a brave new world, it's a

0:12:51.312 --> 0:12:54.141
<v Speaker 2>new world, and we're going to have to be brave

0:12:54.142 --> 0:12:57.261
<v Speaker 2>and look to the true adults in the room, which

0:12:57.261 --> 0:13:00.392
<v Speaker 2>uh which very fortunately includes the government of Singapore as

0:13:00.392 --> 0:13:04.392
<v Speaker 2>well as others who are trying to figure out.

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:12.549
<v Speaker 2>This chess that we're in, it's not a chess. He's thrown.

0:13:12.580 --> 0:13:13.710
<v Speaker 2>I think I think I think is the term you're

0:13:13.710 --> 0:13:15.989
<v Speaker 2>looking for. I think all of us are just trying

0:13:15.989 --> 0:13:19.909
<v Speaker 2>to make sense of uh Mr. Trump's latest moves. A

0:13:19.909 --> 0:13:22.539
<v Speaker 2>lot of them questionable for sure how much of it

0:13:22.539 --> 0:13:26.789
<v Speaker 2>has to do with his uh business negotiating muscle that

0:13:26.789 --> 0:13:29.039
<v Speaker 2>he's flexing rather than having any political

0:13:29.284 --> 0:13:33.275
<v Speaker 2>nuances which we know it's not his game, it really

0:13:33.275 --> 0:13:36.275
<v Speaker 2>isn't his game, uh, but I think this presidency is

0:13:36.275 --> 0:13:39.234
<v Speaker 2>going to be a test of that for sure. Doctor Donaldson,

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<v Speaker 2>always a pleasure to have you on the show. It's

0:13:41.215 --> 0:13:44.234
<v Speaker 2>been great to hear some clarity, to get some kind

0:13:44.234 --> 0:13:47.635
<v Speaker 2>of clarity over uh the situation as much as we can. Uh,

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<v Speaker 2>so thank you very much for spending the morning with us.

0:13:50.155 --> 0:13:51.794
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. I wish

0:13:51.794 --> 0:13:53.103
<v Speaker 2>I had more clarity to give.

0:13:54.070 --> 0:13:56.789
<v Speaker 2>That's all of us, to our listeners as well, Doctor Donaldson,

0:13:57.130 --> 0:14:00.510
<v Speaker 2>appreciate it nonetheless. That's Doctor John Donaldson. He's associate professor

0:14:00.510 --> 0:14:03.539
<v Speaker 2>of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences at

0:14:03.539 --> 0:14:05.429
<v Speaker 2>the Singapore Management University.