WEBVTT - COE premiums up across the board, except for Cat A vehicles

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<v Speaker 1>It's a Singapore today top story with Lance and Daniel.

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<v Speaker 1>It sure is. Uh, COE prices have gone up in

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<v Speaker 1>most categories in the year's 5th bidding exercise. Uh, the

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<v Speaker 1>only exception is in CAT A for smaller, more fuel efficient.

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<v Speaker 1>Cars where premiums recorded a dip of $120 a 0.13%

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<v Speaker 1>drop from the last bidding exercise series for Ca B

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<v Speaker 1>cars rose about 3% to close at $113,000.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh, let me just do a couple more, uh, goods,

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<v Speaker 1>vehicles and buses, uh, premiums rose by about 2.5% to

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<v Speaker 1>finish at $67,000 while COE prices for motorcycles recorded the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest jump of more than $4000 or rather more than 4.5%

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<v Speaker 1>closing at over $9000.

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<v Speaker 2>Automotive industry veteran and consultants say is back on the

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<v Speaker 2>show to talk to us. Um, hello. Hey guys, how's

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<v Speaker 2>it going? Uh first point.

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<v Speaker 2>That $120 drop in cat A, is that, is that

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<v Speaker 2>like negligible is that even a drop? Well, to be honest,

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<v Speaker 2>I think um the industry picked up quite a number

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<v Speaker 2>of orders when COEs uh uh dropped in category A

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<v Speaker 2>the last time around. Um, even though COEs rose uh

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<v Speaker 2>back to about 92,000, there was still about 1000 over

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<v Speaker 2>uh bits that had to be carried over.

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<v Speaker 2>Now the industry also added uh probably about 1000 over

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<v Speaker 2>new orders during that period of time. So it was

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<v Speaker 2>pretty much uh treading water and, and so therefore, what

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<v Speaker 2>you saw was really uh an industry finding its feet

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<v Speaker 2>with this new equilibrium that was established by the increase

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<v Speaker 2>in the the CUE supply and so therefore, because of

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<v Speaker 2>the number of orders they had on hand, I think

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<v Speaker 2>the the industry was treading water on category A.

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<v Speaker 2>Now bear in mind, uh, that some of the big

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<v Speaker 2>players like BOID, they, they are in pursuit of numbers

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<v Speaker 2>and so perhaps those numbers were also reflective of what

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<v Speaker 2>BOID was trying to do in the marketplace.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, I'm just wondering, they keep saying that the more

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<v Speaker 1>COE is being made available, we will see a drop

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<v Speaker 1>in COE prices. We're not seeing it.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, lots of experts have come on, on,

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<v Speaker 2>on the air to say that, you know, when the

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<v Speaker 2>supply goes up, uh, you know, the price will come down. I, I,

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<v Speaker 2>I think you're seeing probably the start of the market

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<v Speaker 2>finding its feet with this new era of increase in

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<v Speaker 2>COE supply.

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<v Speaker 2>And it will go through several cycles, like, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>if you, if you were to look at where Category

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<v Speaker 2>B is, uh, it rose by about 3400, uh, on

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<v Speaker 2>the back of um of maybe about 1200 bits. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>this is probably because

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<v Speaker 2>Because some of the luxury brands are closing off their

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<v Speaker 2>quarter and they need to pursue uh numbers. And, and

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<v Speaker 2>so therefore, you see the numbers climbing, and that indicates

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<v Speaker 2>to you that whilst the order that they took in

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<v Speaker 2>for the month were very similar to the previous bid.

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<v Speaker 2>These guys were basically bidding a little harder. So they're

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<v Speaker 2>getting used to the increase in supply, and then the

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<v Speaker 2>market is finding its feet again. So, uh, I've, I've

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<v Speaker 2>been saying this for, for enough time now to, to

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<v Speaker 2>sound like a broken record. Once the market starts to

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<v Speaker 2>adjust to the increase in COE supply,

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<v Speaker 2>It will trend upwards because of the state of competition

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<v Speaker 2>amongst all the brands. Now we're pretty lucky this time

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<v Speaker 2>around because apparently I didn't see any registrations for Tesla in,

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<v Speaker 2>in January. I'm not sure whether that's just a blip

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<v Speaker 2>or whether they are waiting for the supply of new

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<v Speaker 2>vehicles to come through.

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<v Speaker 2>But imagine if a player like Tesla were to come in,

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<v Speaker 2>then maybe those numbers would be even more aggressive for

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<v Speaker 2>Category B. So, we we're seeing a market now starting

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<v Speaker 2>to get used to the rhythm, the cadence of this

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<v Speaker 2>new increase in COE supply, and you would see that

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<v Speaker 2>you will track upwards. So that you're quite we are

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<v Speaker 2>quite accurate on, on that assessment.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, but it's like if you were, it's also interesting

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<v Speaker 2>and noteworthy to talk about how it's being played out

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<v Speaker 2>in the showrooms as well. I was in the showrooms

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<v Speaker 2>in January and February and early March as well. And

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<v Speaker 2>it's interesting because I, a lot of the staff were

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<v Speaker 2>saying things like, Hey Ca A now buy cat A,

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<v Speaker 2>do that instead, do that. That's the market adjusting itself, la,

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<v Speaker 2>like you said, like the seller will respond to that

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<v Speaker 2>idea in terms of the orders and maybe in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of what they push out to the consumer as well. Right.

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<v Speaker 2>So what you see is normally when you have this

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<v Speaker 2>increase in COE uh supply and the numbers tumble for

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<v Speaker 2>a while, the market then comes back into play and

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<v Speaker 2>orders increase, but you would see that maybe dealerships, except

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<v Speaker 2>probably those under pressure to meet quarterly targets, the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of the dealerships when they pick up these orders are

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<v Speaker 2>priced in at a lower COE value, they may not

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<v Speaker 2>be in a hurry to actually secure the bids. They,

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<v Speaker 2>they are probably hedging.

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<v Speaker 2>That COA prices will come down a bit later down

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<v Speaker 2>the road, and so they're really not in a hurry

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<v Speaker 2>to actually bid up the COEs. So for the most

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<v Speaker 2>competitive segment like Category A, you see a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of treading of water in that area, and it's largely

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<v Speaker 2>due to the fact that uh that's a very price

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<v Speaker 2>sensitive segment and the

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<v Speaker 2>If you pick up orders at lower prices, chances of

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<v Speaker 2>you bidding much higher for a COE in that segment

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<v Speaker 2>cannot come into play unless you have a massive support

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<v Speaker 2>from the manufacturers themselves.

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<v Speaker 1>Queen, we know that about 20,000s will be released. Do

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<v Speaker 1>we have any idea how many

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<v Speaker 1>Of um those announced 20,000 additional COEs will come into

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<v Speaker 1>play for this

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<v Speaker 1>year.

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<v Speaker 2>Lance, no idea.

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<v Speaker 1>No one knows.

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<v Speaker 2>No one knows Lance LPA I think is keeping this

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<v Speaker 2>very close to their chest because I think if you

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<v Speaker 2>were to let the industry work out how many pieces

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<v Speaker 2>are available, you know, they will adjust.

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit quicker to that cadence and then they'll

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<v Speaker 2>start bidding more aggressively. So I think LTA is doing

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<v Speaker 2>a smart decision by doing that, but because of that,

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<v Speaker 2>I think then every bit then becomes probably as important

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<v Speaker 2>as the previous bid, and so there will probably be

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<v Speaker 2>additional pressure on the authorized dealers to actually go for

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<v Speaker 2>every bit aggressively.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you a believer in the concept of what goes

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<v Speaker 2>up must come down?

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<v Speaker 2>I've been a believer that whatever goes up must come

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<v Speaker 2>down for COE for many things except COE, yeah, but, but, OK,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we we we zoom out, we take a

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<v Speaker 2>three year view.

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<v Speaker 2>This thing. If, if COEs really increased to about maybe 60,000,

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<v Speaker 2>70,000 pieces a year, you will see those numbers come down.

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<v Speaker 2>Will they come down to the previous levels of maybe

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<v Speaker 2>70,000 or 80,000.

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<v Speaker 2>I doubt it because with every 10 year cycle, the

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<v Speaker 2>market finds a new threshold, and with every 10-year cycle,

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<v Speaker 2>new players come in to dominate the market. Uh, my

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<v Speaker 2>contention has been that the national sales companies established in

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<v Speaker 2>Singapore are keeping prices high because of the state of

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<v Speaker 2>competition for C. Um, previous to that, a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>To be private hire companies. Uh, now they've backed off

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<v Speaker 2>because the demand for cars has fallen a bit, but

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<v Speaker 2>there will always be a new player in town to

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<v Speaker 2>actually keep those prices up. So, you know, once, once

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<v Speaker 2>I believe what goes up will come down, with COEs,

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<v Speaker 2>I tend to not hold my breath for that.

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<v Speaker 1>OK. Now, your,

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<v Speaker 1>your thoughts, Queen Eng, on the private hire cars for

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<v Speaker 1>3 years, uh, before selling to individuals, a good thing

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<v Speaker 1>to stop premature conversions?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, absolutely. I think this off-ramp was something that was

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<v Speaker 2>really um uh keeping uh uh the state of um

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<v Speaker 2>uh demand for, for private hire vehicles in a flux because, um,

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<v Speaker 2>once you have them aggressively getting COEs, um, the, the

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<v Speaker 2>customers on the ground were probably not really seeing it

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<v Speaker 2>translate to, uh, probably lower prices and more convenient access

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<v Speaker 2>to private hire vehicles when they want to.

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<v Speaker 2>So I, I think, you know, this is a really

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<v Speaker 2>good move, and it stems from keeping point to point

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<v Speaker 2>transport at, at a, at a certain level so that

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<v Speaker 2>consumers are satisfied in their, in their needs because when

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<v Speaker 2>COE prices are so high, point to point, transport is

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<v Speaker 2>really an issue that must be tackled, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>this was probably a long awaited decision by the LTA

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<v Speaker 2>to actually cut off this loophole that was enjoyed by

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of private hire companies who are using the

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<v Speaker 2>loopholes really basically not to meet the demands of consumers

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<v Speaker 2>for point to point transportation, but more to meet their own, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, profit targets and commercial reasons. Yeah. We've got

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<v Speaker 2>a question coming in from one of our listeners, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's David. David, thanks for sending a message across. You ask,

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<v Speaker 2>how do you think the bank's playing a role in

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<v Speaker 2>the finance and equity market that allow the readings to

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<v Speaker 2>continue to be funded and therefore, even supply still find

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<v Speaker 2>the support level?

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<v Speaker 2>Um, I mean, look, um, financing in the car industry

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<v Speaker 2>is a, a fairly well regulated, uh, instrument. um, you,

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<v Speaker 2>you need a certain deposit if you are going to

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<v Speaker 2>the market to buy the car. I think with private

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<v Speaker 2>hire companies being established, a lot of people circumnavigated the

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<v Speaker 2>requirement for you to have cash on hand.

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<v Speaker 2>To buy a new car by basically going into the

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<v Speaker 2>private hire system to actually lease a car, thereby not

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<v Speaker 2>having to come up with a deposit. So, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think whenever you, you, you plug a hole, something

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<v Speaker 2>else opens up in the car industry, because the car

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<v Speaker 2>industry is very quick to adapt to uh gaps in

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<v Speaker 2>legislation or policies, and they will then swarm into that

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<v Speaker 2>area to actually

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<v Speaker 2>Make as much money as they possibly can. This is,

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<v Speaker 2>this has been the car industry for the longest time,

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<v Speaker 2>and I've been a practitioner of that as well. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's almost impossible for, for policymakers to plug

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<v Speaker 2>every single hole that they see coming from the system,

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<v Speaker 2>but so long as the market is able to have

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<v Speaker 2>a certain policy moving forward. In other words, if private

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<v Speaker 2>hire vehicles are actually meant to be

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<v Speaker 2>On the road and and not being actually used as

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<v Speaker 2>another commercial enterprise, then certainly that would help ease some

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<v Speaker 2>of the situation we're seeing on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>You know,

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<v Speaker 1>uh, it's just been reported as well, probably an hour ago,

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<v Speaker 1>that there will not be a separate COE category for

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<v Speaker 1>private hire cars. OK, so that's out there now. It's

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<v Speaker 1>been talked about in parliament and that decision has been made.

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<v Speaker 1>Queen advice for people whose cars are due to expire.

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<v Speaker 1>Mine is due to expire in November 2026. And, and,

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<v Speaker 1>and yeah, but I'm just wondering as well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what sort of advice are you people will definitely be

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<v Speaker 1>seeking your advice, right? You know, whether it's a and

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<v Speaker 1>it's in fairly good nick. Do you reckon?

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<v Speaker 1>People who are thinking about, hmm, you know, should I

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<v Speaker 1>just get my car scrapped or should I hang on

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<v Speaker 1>and go for another 10 years or 5 years? What

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<v Speaker 1>sort of advice do you normally give them?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think, um, a lot of people are really now, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, caught between the devil and the deep blue

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<v Speaker 2>sea since 2025 was supposed to be a big deregistration. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>2025 was promising to be a year where COE prices would,

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<v Speaker 2>would come down based on historical 10 year trends, right?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't see it coming now because now the government

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<v Speaker 2>is basically capping how much COE is coming our way.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that's wise because I think they need

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<v Speaker 2>to maintain the revenue streams that come from COEs, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's not so good for us as consumers because it

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<v Speaker 2>means that COEs will probably remain at this level. So

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<v Speaker 2>I get a new car or not.

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<v Speaker 2>I, I think, I think if you are ready to

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<v Speaker 2>jump into another, maybe a petrol car, um, that decision

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<v Speaker 2>is probably a little easier than if you are to

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<v Speaker 2>jump into an electric vehicle, let's say, because a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people are still undecided about where, where to go

0:12:21.380 --> 0:12:23.819
<v Speaker 2>with this EV trend.

0:12:24.130 --> 0:12:25.940
<v Speaker 2>And and I think, you know, if you, if you

0:12:25.940 --> 0:12:28.900
<v Speaker 2>look at where the market is heading, a lot of

0:12:28.900 --> 0:12:31.858
<v Speaker 2>Singaporeans have already voted with their wallets to say that, no, no,

0:12:31.940 --> 0:12:33.858
<v Speaker 2>I'm not waiting for it. The, the subsidy, I mean,

0:12:33.869 --> 0:12:37.599
<v Speaker 2>the rebates are good. I'm jumping into the EV space.

0:12:37.859 --> 0:12:40.940
<v Speaker 2>BYD was the top seller last month, right? I believe.

0:12:40.979 --> 0:12:44.380
<v Speaker 2>They were indeed and and talk in the market is

0:12:44.380 --> 0:12:45.929
<v Speaker 2>that BYD is really.

0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.419
<v Speaker 2>Keeping the the the pedal to the metal. They are

0:12:49.419 --> 0:12:52.489
<v Speaker 2>forcing a lot of registrations into the marketplace as well.

0:12:52.739 --> 0:12:54.659
<v Speaker 2>So I, I don't see them letting up, and I

0:12:54.659 --> 0:12:56.699
<v Speaker 2>think some of the offerings that they're having is too

0:12:56.700 --> 0:13:00.419
<v Speaker 2>good to be true. So if you are really undecided

0:13:00.419 --> 0:13:03.449
<v Speaker 2>about jumping in the EV space or not, chances are

0:13:03.450 --> 0:13:06.210
<v Speaker 2>you would probably still sit on the fence and win

0:13:06.210 --> 0:13:08.380
<v Speaker 2>until the very last minute and my

0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:10.500
<v Speaker 2>My thinking is that a lot of these people will

0:13:10.500 --> 0:13:14.859
<v Speaker 2>swing towards the tried and tested internal combustion engine cars.

0:13:14.940 --> 0:13:17.468
<v Speaker 2>That's my thinking. But a lot of the other guys

0:13:17.469 --> 0:13:20.619
<v Speaker 2>who are probably saying, well, you know, COE is already

0:13:20.619 --> 0:13:22.859
<v Speaker 2>at an all-time high. If I were to jump into

0:13:22.859 --> 0:13:25.659
<v Speaker 2>another petrol car, I'm probably paying about 100,000 more than

0:13:25.659 --> 0:13:28.699
<v Speaker 2>I did 10 years ago. These people will say, forget

0:13:28.700 --> 0:13:30.419
<v Speaker 2>about it. Let's look for a new toy.

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.849
<v Speaker 2>And then the new toy would be the EV car

0:13:33.849 --> 0:13:37.039
<v Speaker 2>because you can actually step out of your existing maybe

0:13:37.039 --> 0:13:39.929
<v Speaker 2>6 or 7 year car, jump into a China made

0:13:39.929 --> 0:13:43.689
<v Speaker 2>EV car and nobody would say that you're downgrading. But

0:13:43.690 --> 0:13:45.569
<v Speaker 2>if you jump out of a 6 or 7 year

0:13:45.570 --> 0:13:49.089
<v Speaker 2>old Japanese car and you jump into an EV car

0:13:49.090 --> 0:13:53.049
<v Speaker 2>made say by by another existing brand, then

0:13:53.190 --> 0:13:56.210
<v Speaker 2>But everyone would then say that, oh man, you're downgrading.

0:13:56.289 --> 0:13:57.890
<v Speaker 2>That's a good point. I know a lot of people

0:13:57.890 --> 0:14:00.640
<v Speaker 2>that sold their old Mercedes, sold the old BMW, and oh,

0:14:00.650 --> 0:14:02.530
<v Speaker 2>I got the new seal, you know, that kind of thing.

0:14:02.770 --> 0:14:05.369
<v Speaker 2>It's a new toy because it's, it's a techie gadget

0:14:05.369 --> 0:14:08.049
<v Speaker 2>kind of thing. It's a techie gadget and that's been

0:14:08.049 --> 0:14:10.569
<v Speaker 2>firing up some of the demand for EVs at this

0:14:10.570 --> 0:14:13.609
<v Speaker 2>moment because nobody wants to step out of their cars

0:14:13.609 --> 0:14:15.289
<v Speaker 2>and be seen to be downgrading.

0:14:15.619 --> 0:14:17.569
<v Speaker 2>So I think that's firing up a little bit of

0:14:17.570 --> 0:14:20.840
<v Speaker 2>the demand for the EV cars, um, but I would

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.559
<v Speaker 2>say honestly, Lance, I mean, you and I are friends,

0:14:24.010 --> 0:14:26.250
<v Speaker 2>if you are in the market for a car in

0:14:26.250 --> 0:14:28.969
<v Speaker 2>the next few months, it really doesn't matter whether you

0:14:28.969 --> 0:14:33.090
<v Speaker 2>buy now or in about 6 months or so, the

0:14:33.090 --> 0:14:35.650
<v Speaker 2>prices may trend southwards a little bit,

0:14:37.210 --> 0:14:37.580
<v Speaker 1>right? Yeah,

0:14:38.130 --> 0:14:39.609
<v Speaker 2>but not to the point that, you know, it's going

0:14:39.609 --> 0:14:41.619
<v Speaker 2>to make you go, whoa, man, I'm glad I waited,

0:14:41.809 --> 0:14:42.479
<v Speaker 2>you know.

0:14:43.729 --> 0:14:46.570
<v Speaker 2>Thank you for the voice of reason, automotive industry veteran

0:14:46.570 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 2>and consultant Queening joining us as we discuss the new

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.729
<v Speaker 2>cigar prices that were just released today at Singapore today.