Speaker 1: You're listening to AC N A podcast.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Climate Conversations. I'm your host, Julie Yu
Speaker 1: Singapore released its third national climate change study, also known
Speaker 1: as V three last week and it makes for sober reading.
Speaker 1: We're not just talking about numbers here. We're delving into
Speaker 1: detailed projections stretching all the way to 2100. It's almost
Speaker 1: like crystal ball gazing. But with science and data,
Speaker 1: this report basically gives a glimpse of how hot the
Speaker 1: island is going to be, how much rain will fall
Speaker 1: and how much the sea level will rise to help
Speaker 1: us unpack and make sense of the latest findings. I'm
Speaker 1: joined by Doctor Orel Moise, Deputy Director of the Department
Speaker 1: of Climate Research at the Center for Climate Research, Singapore,
Speaker 1: the agency behind the report.
Speaker 1: Doctor Moyes. Welcome to the Climate Conversations. Thank
Speaker 2: you and I'm happy to be here.
Speaker 1: Great to see you to kick things off. Tell us,
Speaker 1: first of all, why is a report like this important
Speaker 1: for Singapore?
Speaker 2: I think the importance of this report is the most
Speaker 2: up to date information you can possibly get at the
Speaker 2: highest resolution that is available for Singapore to understand how
Speaker 2: the climate is changing,
Speaker 2: what worlds we are looking into in the future decades
Speaker 2: and also how this will depend on the overall global
Speaker 2: pathway on carbon emissions. So we did the study looking
Speaker 2: at three different pathways, the low medium and high emission
Speaker 2: pathway
Speaker 1: in predicting climate patterns. There is no simple feat but
Speaker 1: walk us through the process behind these projections and how
Speaker 1: accurate can we expect them to
Speaker 2: be? So where this all starts
Speaker 2: is with a global modeling program that the World Climate
Speaker 2: Research program co ordinates where 50 plus global climate centers
Speaker 2: in the world all simulate the future climate under the
Speaker 2: same experimental conditions
Speaker 2: using supercomputers. So there's two cycles, the modeling cycle and
Speaker 2: then a few years later, the A PC C cycle.
Speaker 2: So what we do is we take the 50 plus
Speaker 2: global models and subselect the best ones for our region
Speaker 2: and those six best ones, we then run a separate
Speaker 2: climate model just over Southeast Asia and over Singapore to
Speaker 2: further
Speaker 2: what we call downscale information. But what we have with
Speaker 2: this is high resolution information that is non existent. Otherwise
Speaker 2: nobody else has this kind of data for South East
Speaker 2: Asia and Singapore.
Speaker 1: When you went through the final projections, did the findings
Speaker 1: align with your expectations, any surprises?
Speaker 2: Some of the surprises we found specifically for South East
Speaker 2: Asia and Singapore was
Speaker 2: what we call extremes now over the last decade or
Speaker 2: so will become rather normal. By the end of the
Speaker 2: century and particularly the high emission scenario. So this is
Speaker 2: something to think about because as the climate is slowly
Speaker 2: warming in the background, the way we will experience this
Speaker 2: change is initially through the higher occurrence of extreme events,
Speaker 2: whether it's rainfall or temperature. And so this is definitely
Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on
Speaker 2: the second. Not surprising but certainly concerning result is the
Speaker 2: possibility of a large number of heat stress died by
Speaker 2: the end of the century.
Speaker 1: Ok. So doctor let's delve into the specific projections starting
Speaker 1: with temperature. Obviously, in Singapore, we've been feeling the heat
Speaker 1: for several years now. And the report says that 35
Speaker 1: degrees is likely to be the norm. Could it go
Speaker 2: higher typically with these kind of projections?
Speaker 2: The numbers we give away are what we call climatological
Speaker 2: averages so that they represent not the temperature on any
Speaker 2: particular day, but they represent averages over quite a long
Speaker 2: time period. So 10 or 20 years
Speaker 2: and this means if there is an average projected to
Speaker 2: be 20 or 35 degrees for that period, then if
Speaker 2: you look at a day to day basis, of course,
Speaker 2: they go higher and lower because you have the daily
Speaker 2: variation in temperature around the average. So
Speaker 2: if you look at, for example, now on our website,
Speaker 2: average temperature for the last 10 years for a particular
Speaker 2: season is 29 degrees. But of course, on a daily basis,
Speaker 2: it goes up to 33 or below it. So this
Speaker 2: kind of what we call variability will still exist in
Speaker 2: the future. And the
Speaker 2: objected values we give are typically averages over a time period,
Speaker 2: but also averages over those six models that I mentioned before.
Speaker 2: And this is where we get the range from. So
Speaker 2: you will see that our results will say an average
Speaker 2: of this and a range from here to here.
Speaker 2: And this range is expressed as the range from the
Speaker 2: models from minimum to maximum because we only have the
Speaker 2: model simulations as the only indicators what our future climate
Speaker 2: will be like. And each model gives you a slightly
Speaker 2: different version of the future climate. And we take that
Speaker 2: range of possible future climate as the range. Unfortunately, the
Speaker 2: minimum temperatures, the nightly minimum temperatures are also rising and
Speaker 2: rising actually at a faster speed than the
Speaker 2: maximum. So to me, the concerning thing is that we
Speaker 2: might not get as much cooling during the night as
Speaker 2: we used to. And this is where people have to
Speaker 2: try to adapt to this and maybe switch on the
Speaker 2: air conditioners to 25 degrees and not 24 be mindful
Speaker 2: of the times of day when you are actually outside
Speaker 2: and otherwise use cooling measures to stay cool. You know,
Speaker 2: the government released a heat stress advisory, the National Environment Agency.
Speaker 2: And this is something where there is clear
Speaker 2: guidance on what you should do in terms of outdoor
Speaker 2: activities and be mindful.
Speaker 1: And doctor, let's talk about rainfall. And anyone who has
Speaker 1: been in Singapore these last few weeks will know it's
Speaker 1: been pouring almost every day. It used to be more predictable,
Speaker 1: but now it appears harder
Speaker 2: to predict. So what you're talking about is weather prediction,
Speaker 2: which is different to climate. There's a clear difference between
Speaker 2: the question, I just want to predict for the next
Speaker 2: 5 to 7 days because all your tools are very
Speaker 2: different that you use the models and everything.
Speaker 2: Whether to ask the question, what is the climate going
Speaker 2: to do by the end of the century or by
Speaker 2: the middle of the century, the tools are very different
Speaker 2: and even though there are similar processes involved, but it's
Speaker 2: the timescale of interest that makes the difference. And therefore
Speaker 2: the question on whether weather is harder to predict at
Speaker 2: the moment is not something that we looked at in
Speaker 2: terms of E three. So it's an interesting question, but
Speaker 2: it's a completely separate issue.
Speaker 2: So what my study looked at is the long term
Speaker 2: changes and what this means for average and extreme climates.
Speaker 1: So wet months are getting wetter, up to about 60%
Speaker 1: dry months are getting drier, but up to 40%. Could
Speaker 1: you explain that to us? So
Speaker 2: one way to visualize this is that when it rains,
Speaker 2: it pours. So over the same time period, when it rains,
Speaker 2: you can maybe expect stronger what we call rain rates.
Speaker 2: This is the rain per time
Speaker 2: and then the spaces in between could be longer because
Speaker 2: you have more periods of dry spells in between. So
Speaker 2: that's one way to visualize this. And this is also
Speaker 2: in line with what in a lot of locations around
Speaker 2: the world, globally, IPCC said is as the extremes are
Speaker 2: getting more extremes, we see
Speaker 2: particularly the rainfall extremes to increase. But also at the
Speaker 2: same time, we see some dry spells duration and frequency
Speaker 1: increasing. And that's certainly worrying for, I guess people's health
Speaker 1: and also there is a higher chance for flooding delays
Speaker 1: in construction, traffic congestions and so on. So
Speaker 2: if worked all along already with Singapore's Water Agency P
Speaker 2: very very closely. They are one of our
Speaker 2: closer stakeholders and they already had access to our information
Speaker 2: before anybody else because they are in the process of
Speaker 2: building the coastal protection systems and studies. So they are
Speaker 2: well aware of where this goes and they take care
Speaker 2: of the design parameters that are in line with what
Speaker 2: we say. So I'm not concerned about the extreme rainfall
Speaker 2: because I know that
Speaker 2: drainage systems will be designed appropriately.
Speaker 1: So let's move on to sea level protection. A big
Speaker 1: deal for Singapore given its vulnerability to rising sea levels.
Speaker 1: The report here says that sea levels around Singapore could
Speaker 1: rise by more than 1 m by year 2100 and
Speaker 1: up to 2.12 m by 2050.
Speaker 1: How would you explain the potential impact of 1 to
Speaker 1: 2 m rise in sea levels for a low lying
Speaker 1: country like Singapore sea
Speaker 2: level rise projected by the end of this century, 1.15
Speaker 2: m up to that value under the high emission scenario
Speaker 2: is not that different from what we said years ago.
Speaker 2: And it is also not too far away from what
Speaker 2: the global average is actually. So it's not really outstanding
Speaker 2: to that respect. And it's something that pub is well
Speaker 2: aware of in terms of what this could mean to
Speaker 2: their planning parameters. And PUB is not only taking that
Speaker 2: sea level rise into account, but also all the other
Speaker 2: wave storm surge, tidal variability, everything else that comes on
Speaker 2: top of this. So pub needs to take care of
Speaker 2: all of this for us. The change from 1 to
Speaker 2: 2 m is therefore something that is already well in
Speaker 2: their planning scope that is clear by 2150.
Speaker 2: The main thing to think about is the ocean reacts
Speaker 2: a bit different to the warming than the atmosphere because
Speaker 2: it's much slower warming, but for much longer. So even
Speaker 2: if the world decides to come together and do a
Speaker 2: lot of mitigation to go to the low emission scenario
Speaker 2: pathway by the end of this century, which means the
Speaker 2: atmosphere change will slowly ease and flatten off
Speaker 2: the ocean will still warm. And expand for the next
Speaker 2: few centuries and therefore still rise even in the low
Speaker 2: emission scenario. So by in 200 years time, we'll be
Speaker 2: looking at several meters sea level rise because of this.
Speaker 2: And that's something that I'm sure every government in the
Speaker 2: world has to look at in terms of the long
Speaker 2: term unavoidable change in the ocean. What can be done
Speaker 2: about this and this is something that of course, is
Speaker 2: very far away
Speaker 2: and the government will react along the way. But for
Speaker 2: the next decades, until 2150 everything is already part of
Speaker 2: the planning.
Speaker 1: And this V three report is not only looking at
Speaker 1: Singapore but also their projections on Southeast Asia as a whole.
Speaker 1: Singapore residents obviously travel a great deal to Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila,
Speaker 1: which projection stood out for you in terms of this
Speaker 1: part of the region. What should we know about how
Speaker 1: our neighbors are going to be affected?
Speaker 2: So the impact on our neighbors is quite diverse because
Speaker 2: there are areas where we will see fairly strong increases
Speaker 2: in rainfall in some seasons and other areas where there
Speaker 2: clearly drought behavior. And so one of the important issues
Speaker 2: here for Singapore, of course, is around food security and
Speaker 2: the source countries for Singapore's food crops that we are importing.
Speaker 2: And so with regard to sea level rice. Key thing
Speaker 2: here is to look at some of those South East
Speaker 2: Asian mega cities that are near big river delta and
Speaker 2: the potential for them
Speaker 2: to be inundated by future sea level real. And I'm
Speaker 2: sure they will address. This is another important issue when
Speaker 2: it comes to sea level rise because there's not only
Speaker 2: the ocean that is potentially going upwards, but the land
Speaker 2: that in some regions is going downwards. So there's two processes,
Speaker 2: one is associated with climate and climate change, which is
Speaker 2: what the ocean is doing. And the other one is
Speaker 2: associated with non climate issues. And this is what we
Speaker 2: call vertical land motion
Speaker 2: and vertical land motion is impacted by earthquakes by everything
Speaker 2: that influences the local tectonics. And so we know that
Speaker 2: some areas are slightly sinking. Singapore is not, but this
Speaker 2: is a real issue across the world. And South East
Speaker 2: Asia is to understand what your land is doing relative
Speaker 2: to a rising ocean. So the
Speaker 1: thing about projections is that
Speaker 1: are in end of century time frames, that's what decades
Speaker 1: from now. So the current generations may not take it
Speaker 1: so seriously. What's the value in understanding these long term shifts?
Speaker 2: Of course, all of our information is sort of focused
Speaker 2: on the end of the century for now because this
Speaker 2: is typically done that you want to look at the
Speaker 2: delta between now and then. But our data is actually
Speaker 2: data that is between now and then on subd time steps.
Speaker 2: So we are providing data to our stakeholders, not just
Speaker 2: by the end of the century, we have information for
Speaker 2: every 10 minutes between now and then
Speaker 2: you need this kind of data to understand the daily
Speaker 2: variability in rainfall. For example, the changes in temperature and rainfall,
Speaker 2: not just by the end, but in the coming years
Speaker 2: and decades,
Speaker 1: I mean, the job of science is to show the
Speaker 1: way and this report has certainly done that. What needs
Speaker 1: to be done next to act on science? Do you
Speaker 1: feel that we have what it takes to deal with
Speaker 1: these upcoming changes
Speaker 2: on this sort of basic fundamental science informing the government
Speaker 2: in terms of policy and adaptation planning.
Speaker 2: This is one of the most complete sets of data
Speaker 2: that you will need and we know in the region
Speaker 2: we are the first and we are certainly at the
Speaker 2: highest resolution. And so to us with this data armed
Speaker 2: the Singapore government can write really solid policies in terms
Speaker 2: of future changes in the decades to come.
Speaker 1: What are you most concerned about and when you are
Speaker 1: talking to your stakeholders, what are their biggest concerns?
Speaker 2: So my main concern is communicating our sign in a
Speaker 2: way that they can understand
Speaker 2: in a way that helps them to do whatever they
Speaker 2: need to do. I think most of their concern is
Speaker 2: the impacts of extremes on their area of business. Basically,
Speaker 2: whether it's and parks and tree falling or pub and
Speaker 2: floods and extreme rain. And you are a for example,
Speaker 2: urban heat and we haven't actually spoken about urban heat
Speaker 2: yet because Singapore is an urban city country. And so
Speaker 2: our temperature projections that we provide are
Speaker 2: projections that at this stage don't fully take into account
Speaker 2: what we call the urban heat island effect, which is
Speaker 2: the additional warming that is due to the urban capture
Speaker 2: of heat during the day. And then the only slow
Speaker 2: release at night which keeps the temperatures warmer at night.
Speaker 2: And so we will study the urban heat Island effect
Speaker 2: because you need to go even higher in resolutions just
Speaker 2: for Singapore to understand what is the urban heat island
Speaker 2: effect throughout this century. Do you
Speaker 1: have a time frame for this
Speaker 2: study? By the end of this year, it will be
Speaker 2: done another deadline to. Absolutely. As I said earlier, this
Speaker 2: is just the beginning.
Speaker 2: So now that we have the data, we will analyze
Speaker 2: many more dimensions of what is still in the data
Speaker 2: and that we can communicate to our stakeholders and the public.
Speaker 2: Before I
Speaker 1: let you go, Dr I'm looking forward, how would you
Speaker 1: gauge the degree to which the findings of this report
Speaker 1: are being acknowledged or accepted and transformed into actionable
Speaker 2: measures? This is to ask a call to action that
Speaker 2: everybody
Speaker 2: can look at the results and has to understand that
Speaker 2: everyone can do something to contribute to the overall reduction
Speaker 2: in carbon emissions. Whether this is on a personal footprint,
Speaker 2: on an organizational footprint,
Speaker 2: government footprint, I can tell you truthfully that Singapore is
Speaker 2: one of the very few countries I know where all
Speaker 2: of their policy and adaptation planning is based on the
Speaker 2: solid science and they are very committed to look at
Speaker 2: the science and then base everything on that. So I'm
Speaker 2: very impressed by how this is being done in Singapore.
Speaker 1: Ok. Well, Dr Moy, thank you very much for your
Speaker 1: insight today. Thank you,
Speaker 1: but thanks to my guest for explaining the significance of
Speaker 1: this important study. I hope you learned as much from
Speaker 1: it as I did. And thank you for listening to
Speaker 1: the Climate Conversations. The team behind this podcast is Tiffany
Speaker 1: Yang Christina Robert, Joanne Chen and Nguyen. I'm Julie Yu
Speaker 1: signing off.