WEBVTT - What will be the impact of a hotter Singapore?

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to AC N A podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Climate Conversations. I'm your host, Julie Yu

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore released its third national climate change study, also known

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<v Speaker 1>as V three last week and it makes for sober reading.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not just talking about numbers here. We're delving into

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<v Speaker 1>detailed projections stretching all the way to 2100. It's almost

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<v Speaker 1>like crystal ball gazing. But with science and data,

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<v Speaker 1>this report basically gives a glimpse of how hot the

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<v Speaker 1>island is going to be, how much rain will fall

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<v Speaker 1>and how much the sea level will rise to help

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<v Speaker 1>us unpack and make sense of the latest findings. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>joined by Doctor Orel Moise, Deputy Director of the Department

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<v Speaker 1>of Climate Research at the Center for Climate Research, Singapore,

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<v Speaker 1>the agency behind the report.

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<v Speaker 1>Doctor Moyes. Welcome to the Climate Conversations. Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you and I'm happy to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to see you to kick things off. Tell us,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, why is a report like this important

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<v Speaker 1>for Singapore?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the importance of this report is the most

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<v Speaker 2>up to date information you can possibly get at the

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<v Speaker 2>highest resolution that is available for Singapore to understand how

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<v Speaker 2>the climate is changing,

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<v Speaker 2>what worlds we are looking into in the future decades

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<v Speaker 2>and also how this will depend on the overall global

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<v Speaker 2>pathway on carbon emissions. So we did the study looking

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<v Speaker 2>at three different pathways, the low medium and high emission

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<v Speaker 2>pathway

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<v Speaker 1>in predicting climate patterns. There is no simple feat but

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<v Speaker 1>walk us through the process behind these projections and how

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<v Speaker 1>accurate can we expect them to

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<v Speaker 2>be? So where this all starts

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<v Speaker 2>is with a global modeling program that the World Climate

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<v Speaker 2>Research program co ordinates where 50 plus global climate centers

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<v Speaker 2>in the world all simulate the future climate under the

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<v Speaker 2>same experimental conditions

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<v Speaker 2>using supercomputers. So there's two cycles, the modeling cycle and

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<v Speaker 2>then a few years later, the A PC C cycle.

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<v Speaker 2>So what we do is we take the 50 plus

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<v Speaker 2>global models and subselect the best ones for our region

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<v Speaker 2>and those six best ones, we then run a separate

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<v Speaker 2>climate model just over Southeast Asia and over Singapore to

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<v Speaker 2>further

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<v Speaker 2>what we call downscale information. But what we have with

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<v Speaker 2>this is high resolution information that is non existent. Otherwise

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<v Speaker 2>nobody else has this kind of data for South East

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<v Speaker 2>Asia and Singapore.

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<v Speaker 1>When you went through the final projections, did the findings

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<v Speaker 1>align with your expectations, any surprises?

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<v Speaker 2>Some of the surprises we found specifically for South East

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<v Speaker 2>Asia and Singapore was

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<v Speaker 2>what we call extremes now over the last decade or

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<v Speaker 2>so will become rather normal. By the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>century and particularly the high emission scenario. So this is

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<v Speaker 2>something to think about because as the climate is slowly

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<v Speaker 2>warming in the background, the way we will experience this

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<v Speaker 2>change is initially through the higher occurrence of extreme events,

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's rainfall or temperature. And so this is definitely

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<v Speaker 2>something to keep an eye on

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<v Speaker 2>the second. Not surprising but certainly concerning result is the

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<v Speaker 2>possibility of a large number of heat stress died by

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<v Speaker 2>the end of the century.

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<v Speaker 1>Ok. So doctor let's delve into the specific projections starting

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<v Speaker 1>with temperature. Obviously, in Singapore, we've been feeling the heat

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<v Speaker 1>for several years now. And the report says that 35

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<v Speaker 1>degrees is likely to be the norm. Could it go

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<v Speaker 2>higher typically with these kind of projections?

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<v Speaker 2>The numbers we give away are what we call climatological

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<v Speaker 2>averages so that they represent not the temperature on any

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<v Speaker 2>particular day, but they represent averages over quite a long

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<v Speaker 2>time period. So 10 or 20 years

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<v Speaker 2>and this means if there is an average projected to

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<v Speaker 2>be 20 or 35 degrees for that period, then if

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<v Speaker 2>you look at a day to day basis, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>they go higher and lower because you have the daily

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<v Speaker 2>variation in temperature around the average. So

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<v Speaker 2>if you look at, for example, now on our website,

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<v Speaker 2>average temperature for the last 10 years for a particular

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<v Speaker 2>season is 29 degrees. But of course, on a daily basis,

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<v Speaker 2>it goes up to 33 or below it. So this

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<v Speaker 2>kind of what we call variability will still exist in

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<v Speaker 2>the future. And the

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<v Speaker 2>objected values we give are typically averages over a time period,

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<v Speaker 2>but also averages over those six models that I mentioned before.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is where we get the range from. So

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<v Speaker 2>you will see that our results will say an average

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<v Speaker 2>of this and a range from here to here.

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<v Speaker 2>And this range is expressed as the range from the

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<v Speaker 2>models from minimum to maximum because we only have the

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<v Speaker 2>model simulations as the only indicators what our future climate

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<v Speaker 2>will be like. And each model gives you a slightly

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<v Speaker 2>different version of the future climate. And we take that

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<v Speaker 2>range of possible future climate as the range. Unfortunately, the

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<v Speaker 2>minimum temperatures, the nightly minimum temperatures are also rising and

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<v Speaker 2>rising actually at a faster speed than the

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<v Speaker 2>maximum. So to me, the concerning thing is that we

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<v Speaker 2>might not get as much cooling during the night as

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<v Speaker 2>we used to. And this is where people have to

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<v Speaker 2>try to adapt to this and maybe switch on the

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<v Speaker 2>air conditioners to 25 degrees and not 24 be mindful

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<v Speaker 2>of the times of day when you are actually outside

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<v Speaker 2>and otherwise use cooling measures to stay cool. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>the government released a heat stress advisory, the National Environment Agency.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is something where there is clear

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<v Speaker 2>guidance on what you should do in terms of outdoor

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<v Speaker 2>activities and be mindful.

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<v Speaker 1>And doctor, let's talk about rainfall. And anyone who has

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<v Speaker 1>been in Singapore these last few weeks will know it's

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<v Speaker 1>been pouring almost every day. It used to be more predictable,

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<v Speaker 1>but now it appears harder

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<v Speaker 2>to predict. So what you're talking about is weather prediction,

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<v Speaker 2>which is different to climate. There's a clear difference between

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<v Speaker 2>the question, I just want to predict for the next

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<v Speaker 2>5 to 7 days because all your tools are very

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<v Speaker 2>different that you use the models and everything.

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<v Speaker 2>Whether to ask the question, what is the climate going

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<v Speaker 2>to do by the end of the century or by

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<v Speaker 2>the middle of the century, the tools are very different

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<v Speaker 2>and even though there are similar processes involved, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>the timescale of interest that makes the difference. And therefore

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<v Speaker 2>the question on whether weather is harder to predict at

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<v Speaker 2>the moment is not something that we looked at in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of E three. So it's an interesting question, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's a completely separate issue.

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<v Speaker 2>So what my study looked at is the long term

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<v Speaker 2>changes and what this means for average and extreme climates.

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<v Speaker 1>So wet months are getting wetter, up to about 60%

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<v Speaker 1>dry months are getting drier, but up to 40%. Could

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<v Speaker 1>you explain that to us? So

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<v Speaker 2>one way to visualize this is that when it rains,

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<v Speaker 2>it pours. So over the same time period, when it rains,

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<v Speaker 2>you can maybe expect stronger what we call rain rates.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the rain per time

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<v Speaker 2>and then the spaces in between could be longer because

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<v Speaker 2>you have more periods of dry spells in between. So

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<v Speaker 2>that's one way to visualize this. And this is also

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<v Speaker 2>in line with what in a lot of locations around

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<v Speaker 2>the world, globally, IPCC said is as the extremes are

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<v Speaker 2>getting more extremes, we see

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<v Speaker 2>particularly the rainfall extremes to increase. But also at the

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<v Speaker 2>same time, we see some dry spells duration and frequency

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<v Speaker 1>increasing. And that's certainly worrying for, I guess people's health

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<v Speaker 1>and also there is a higher chance for flooding delays

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<v Speaker 1>in construction, traffic congestions and so on. So

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<v Speaker 2>if worked all along already with Singapore's Water Agency P

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<v Speaker 2>very very closely. They are one of our

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<v Speaker 2>closer stakeholders and they already had access to our information

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<v Speaker 2>before anybody else because they are in the process of

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<v Speaker 2>building the coastal protection systems and studies. So they are

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<v Speaker 2>well aware of where this goes and they take care

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<v Speaker 2>of the design parameters that are in line with what

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<v Speaker 2>we say. So I'm not concerned about the extreme rainfall

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<v Speaker 2>because I know that

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<v Speaker 2>drainage systems will be designed appropriately.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's move on to sea level protection. A big

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<v Speaker 1>deal for Singapore given its vulnerability to rising sea levels.

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<v Speaker 1>The report here says that sea levels around Singapore could

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<v Speaker 1>rise by more than 1 m by year 2100 and

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<v Speaker 1>up to 2.12 m by 2050.

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<v Speaker 1>How would you explain the potential impact of 1 to

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<v Speaker 1>2 m rise in sea levels for a low lying

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<v Speaker 1>country like Singapore sea

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<v Speaker 2>level rise projected by the end of this century, 1.15

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<v Speaker 2>m up to that value under the high emission scenario

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<v Speaker 2>is not that different from what we said years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>And it is also not too far away from what

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<v Speaker 2>the global average is actually. So it's not really outstanding

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<v Speaker 2>to that respect. And it's something that pub is well

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<v Speaker 2>aware of in terms of what this could mean to

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<v Speaker 2>their planning parameters. And PUB is not only taking that

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<v Speaker 2>sea level rise into account, but also all the other

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<v Speaker 2>wave storm surge, tidal variability, everything else that comes on

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<v Speaker 2>top of this. So pub needs to take care of

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<v Speaker 2>all of this for us. The change from 1 to

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<v Speaker 2>2 m is therefore something that is already well in

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<v Speaker 2>their planning scope that is clear by 2150.

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<v Speaker 2>The main thing to think about is the ocean reacts

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<v Speaker 2>a bit different to the warming than the atmosphere because

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<v Speaker 2>it's much slower warming, but for much longer. So even

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<v Speaker 2>if the world decides to come together and do a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of mitigation to go to the low emission scenario

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<v Speaker 2>pathway by the end of this century, which means the

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<v Speaker 2>atmosphere change will slowly ease and flatten off

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<v Speaker 2>the ocean will still warm. And expand for the next

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<v Speaker 2>few centuries and therefore still rise even in the low

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<v Speaker 2>emission scenario. So by in 200 years time, we'll be

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<v Speaker 2>looking at several meters sea level rise because of this.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's something that I'm sure every government in the

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<v Speaker 2>world has to look at in terms of the long

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<v Speaker 2>term unavoidable change in the ocean. What can be done

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<v Speaker 2>about this and this is something that of course, is

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<v Speaker 2>very far away

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<v Speaker 2>and the government will react along the way. But for

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<v Speaker 2>the next decades, until 2150 everything is already part of

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<v Speaker 2>the planning.

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<v Speaker 1>And this V three report is not only looking at

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore but also their projections on Southeast Asia as a whole.

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore residents obviously travel a great deal to Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila,

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<v Speaker 1>which projection stood out for you in terms of this

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<v Speaker 1>part of the region. What should we know about how

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<v Speaker 1>our neighbors are going to be affected?

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<v Speaker 2>So the impact on our neighbors is quite diverse because

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<v Speaker 2>there are areas where we will see fairly strong increases

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<v Speaker 2>in rainfall in some seasons and other areas where there

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<v Speaker 2>clearly drought behavior. And so one of the important issues

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<v Speaker 2>here for Singapore, of course, is around food security and

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<v Speaker 2>the source countries for Singapore's food crops that we are importing.

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<v Speaker 2>And so with regard to sea level rice. Key thing

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<v Speaker 2>here is to look at some of those South East

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<v Speaker 2>Asian mega cities that are near big river delta and

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<v Speaker 2>the potential for them

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<v Speaker 2>to be inundated by future sea level real. And I'm

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<v Speaker 2>sure they will address. This is another important issue when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to sea level rise because there's not only

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<v Speaker 2>the ocean that is potentially going upwards, but the land

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<v Speaker 2>that in some regions is going downwards. So there's two processes,

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<v Speaker 2>one is associated with climate and climate change, which is

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<v Speaker 2>what the ocean is doing. And the other one is

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<v Speaker 2>associated with non climate issues. And this is what we

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<v Speaker 2>call vertical land motion

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<v Speaker 2>and vertical land motion is impacted by earthquakes by everything

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<v Speaker 2>that influences the local tectonics. And so we know that

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<v Speaker 2>some areas are slightly sinking. Singapore is not, but this

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<v Speaker 2>is a real issue across the world. And South East

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<v Speaker 2>Asia is to understand what your land is doing relative

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<v Speaker 2>to a rising ocean. So the

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<v Speaker 1>thing about projections is that

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<v Speaker 1>are in end of century time frames, that's what decades

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<v Speaker 1>from now. So the current generations may not take it

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<v Speaker 1>so seriously. What's the value in understanding these long term shifts?

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, all of our information is sort of focused

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<v Speaker 2>on the end of the century for now because this

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<v Speaker 2>is typically done that you want to look at the

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<v Speaker 2>delta between now and then. But our data is actually

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<v Speaker 2>data that is between now and then on subd time steps.

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<v Speaker 2>So we are providing data to our stakeholders, not just

0:12:52.140 --> 0:12:55.400
<v Speaker 2>by the end of the century, we have information for

0:12:55.409 --> 0:12:57.199
<v Speaker 2>every 10 minutes between now and then

0:12:57.609 --> 0:13:00.439
<v Speaker 2>you need this kind of data to understand the daily

0:13:00.450 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 2>variability in rainfall. For example, the changes in temperature and rainfall,

0:13:05.650 --> 0:13:08.010
<v Speaker 2>not just by the end, but in the coming years

0:13:08.020 --> 0:13:08.819
<v Speaker 2>and decades,

0:13:08.830 --> 0:13:10.619
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the job of science is to show the

0:13:10.630 --> 0:13:13.348
<v Speaker 1>way and this report has certainly done that. What needs

0:13:13.359 --> 0:13:16.530
<v Speaker 1>to be done next to act on science? Do you

0:13:16.539 --> 0:13:18.510
<v Speaker 1>feel that we have what it takes to deal with

0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:19.630
<v Speaker 1>these upcoming changes

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:24.130
<v Speaker 2>on this sort of basic fundamental science informing the government

0:13:24.140 --> 0:13:26.109
<v Speaker 2>in terms of policy and adaptation planning.

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.179
<v Speaker 2>This is one of the most complete sets of data

0:13:29.190 --> 0:13:32.510
<v Speaker 2>that you will need and we know in the region

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.500
<v Speaker 2>we are the first and we are certainly at the

0:13:34.510 --> 0:13:39.228
<v Speaker 2>highest resolution. And so to us with this data armed

0:13:39.239 --> 0:13:42.650
<v Speaker 2>the Singapore government can write really solid policies in terms

0:13:42.659 --> 0:13:45.200
<v Speaker 2>of future changes in the decades to come.

0:13:45.299 --> 0:13:47.669
<v Speaker 1>What are you most concerned about and when you are

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.549
<v Speaker 1>talking to your stakeholders, what are their biggest concerns?

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:53.439
<v Speaker 2>So my main concern is communicating our sign in a

0:13:53.450 --> 0:13:54.820
<v Speaker 2>way that they can understand

0:13:55.219 --> 0:13:57.459
<v Speaker 2>in a way that helps them to do whatever they

0:13:57.469 --> 0:14:00.500
<v Speaker 2>need to do. I think most of their concern is

0:14:00.510 --> 0:14:05.159
<v Speaker 2>the impacts of extremes on their area of business. Basically,

0:14:05.169 --> 0:14:08.989
<v Speaker 2>whether it's and parks and tree falling or pub and

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:13.169
<v Speaker 2>floods and extreme rain. And you are a for example,

0:14:13.179 --> 0:14:16.330
<v Speaker 2>urban heat and we haven't actually spoken about urban heat

0:14:16.340 --> 0:14:20.469
<v Speaker 2>yet because Singapore is an urban city country. And so

0:14:20.479 --> 0:14:23.500
<v Speaker 2>our temperature projections that we provide are

0:14:23.780 --> 0:14:27.900
<v Speaker 2>projections that at this stage don't fully take into account

0:14:27.919 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 2>what we call the urban heat island effect, which is

0:14:30.849 --> 0:14:35.520
<v Speaker 2>the additional warming that is due to the urban capture

0:14:35.530 --> 0:14:39.469
<v Speaker 2>of heat during the day. And then the only slow

0:14:39.479 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 2>release at night which keeps the temperatures warmer at night.

0:14:42.799 --> 0:14:45.549
<v Speaker 2>And so we will study the urban heat Island effect

0:14:45.559 --> 0:14:47.900
<v Speaker 2>because you need to go even higher in resolutions just

0:14:47.909 --> 0:14:51.510
<v Speaker 2>for Singapore to understand what is the urban heat island

0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:53.650
<v Speaker 2>effect throughout this century. Do you

0:14:53.659 --> 0:14:54.760
<v Speaker 1>have a time frame for this

0:14:54.770 --> 0:14:56.510
<v Speaker 2>study? By the end of this year, it will be

0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:59.530
<v Speaker 2>done another deadline to. Absolutely. As I said earlier, this

0:14:59.539 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 2>is just the beginning.

0:15:00.380 --> 0:15:03.280
<v Speaker 2>So now that we have the data, we will analyze

0:15:03.289 --> 0:15:06.299
<v Speaker 2>many more dimensions of what is still in the data

0:15:06.309 --> 0:15:09.919
<v Speaker 2>and that we can communicate to our stakeholders and the public.

0:15:09.929 --> 0:15:10.299
<v Speaker 2>Before I

0:15:10.309 --> 0:15:12.739
<v Speaker 1>let you go, Dr I'm looking forward, how would you

0:15:12.750 --> 0:15:15.590
<v Speaker 1>gauge the degree to which the findings of this report

0:15:15.599 --> 0:15:20.179
<v Speaker 1>are being acknowledged or accepted and transformed into actionable

0:15:20.190 --> 0:15:22.679
<v Speaker 2>measures? This is to ask a call to action that

0:15:22.690 --> 0:15:23.440
<v Speaker 2>everybody

0:15:23.770 --> 0:15:26.830
<v Speaker 2>can look at the results and has to understand that

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:32.030
<v Speaker 2>everyone can do something to contribute to the overall reduction

0:15:32.039 --> 0:15:35.299
<v Speaker 2>in carbon emissions. Whether this is on a personal footprint,

0:15:35.309 --> 0:15:36.869
<v Speaker 2>on an organizational footprint,

0:15:37.130 --> 0:15:41.909
<v Speaker 2>government footprint, I can tell you truthfully that Singapore is

0:15:41.919 --> 0:15:45.229
<v Speaker 2>one of the very few countries I know where all

0:15:45.239 --> 0:15:48.869
<v Speaker 2>of their policy and adaptation planning is based on the

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.830
<v Speaker 2>solid science and they are very committed to look at

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.849
<v Speaker 2>the science and then base everything on that. So I'm

0:15:54.859 --> 0:15:57.750
<v Speaker 2>very impressed by how this is being done in Singapore.

0:15:57.989 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 1>Ok. Well, Dr Moy, thank you very much for your

0:16:00.409 --> 0:16:01.789
<v Speaker 1>insight today. Thank you,

0:16:02.739 --> 0:16:06.150
<v Speaker 1>but thanks to my guest for explaining the significance of

0:16:06.159 --> 0:16:09.390
<v Speaker 1>this important study. I hope you learned as much from

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.940
<v Speaker 1>it as I did. And thank you for listening to

0:16:11.950 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 1>the Climate Conversations. The team behind this podcast is Tiffany

0:16:15.849 --> 0:16:20.919
<v Speaker 1>Yang Christina Robert, Joanne Chen and Nguyen. I'm Julie Yu

0:16:20.969 --> 0:16:21.789
<v Speaker 1>signing off.