1 00:00:03,519 --> 00:00:05,710 Speaker 1: You're listening to a CNA podcast. 2 00:00:11,579 --> 00:00:17,209 Speaker 1: India and Pakistan, military powers and nuclear armed neighbors. Since 3 00:00:17,209 --> 00:00:21,690 Speaker 1: gaining independence in 1947, their relationship has been marked by 4 00:00:21,690 --> 00:00:26,579 Speaker 1: a series of violent encounters and border skirmishes, and once again, 5 00:00:26,770 --> 00:00:30,159 Speaker 1: the South Asian nations are creeping closer to the brink 6 00:00:30,159 --> 00:00:33,668 Speaker 1: of war. India has carried out military strikes and 7 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:38,900 Speaker 1: Pakistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir saying it has struck terrorist infrastructure. 8 00:00:39,130 --> 00:00:42,630 Speaker 1: Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif calling it an act of 9 00:00:42,630 --> 00:00:46,709 Speaker 1: war and vowing a response. Reports say dozens of people 10 00:00:46,709 --> 00:00:49,950 Speaker 1: have been killed in the worst confrontation between India and 11 00:00:49,950 --> 00:00:53,549 Speaker 1: Pakistan in more than 20 years. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz 12 00:00:53,549 --> 00:00:55,750 Speaker 1: Sharif has vowed retaliation. 13 00:00:56,069 --> 00:01:00,580 Speaker 1: India has defended the strikes, saying it was exercising its 14 00:01:00,580 --> 00:01:04,220 Speaker 1: right to respond after a deadly terror attack on tourists 15 00:01:04,220 --> 00:01:08,429 Speaker 1: in India administered Kashmir more than 2 weeks ago. India 16 00:01:08,430 --> 00:01:12,539 Speaker 1: blames Pakistan, something it denies. I'm Teresa Tang. In this 17 00:01:12,540 --> 00:01:15,739 Speaker 1: special episode of the CNA Correspondent podcast, we head to 18 00:01:15,739 --> 00:01:19,610 Speaker 1: New Delhi and Islamabad where Ishan Garg and Hira Mustafa 19 00:01:19,610 --> 00:01:22,809 Speaker 1: have been tracking developments. Hello to you both. I appreciate 20 00:01:22,809 --> 00:01:23,620 Speaker 1: you coming on. 21 00:01:23,730 --> 00:01:26,389 Speaker 1: To help our listeners make sense of a very fast 22 00:01:26,389 --> 00:01:30,349 Speaker 1: moving story. Thank you for inviting us. Thank you so 23 00:01:30,349 --> 00:01:32,940 Speaker 1: much for having us. Ishaan, I want to start with you. 24 00:01:33,150 --> 00:01:36,750 Speaker 1: The Indian strikes, they were dubbed Operation Sindoor. They lasted 25 00:01:36,750 --> 00:01:39,430 Speaker 1: about 25 minutes according to reports we've seen. 26 00:01:39,900 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: They struck in the early hours on Wednesday local time. 27 00:01:43,279 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: The first question is why did India take this step? 28 00:01:47,169 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: It's certain that this entire operation and the resulting fallout 29 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,730 Speaker 1: between India and Pakistan, the relationship, it stems from the 30 00:01:56,730 --> 00:02:00,010 Speaker 1: terrorist attack that took place on April 20 in Bahgam. 31 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,970 Speaker 1: In Kashmir that's controlled by the Indian side, and just 32 00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:05,949 Speaker 1: to give our listeners a sense of what happened on 33 00:02:05,949 --> 00:02:09,949 Speaker 1: that day, a group of tourists were attacked by armed 34 00:02:09,949 --> 00:02:15,070 Speaker 1: gunmen who shot several people at point blank range. Some 35 00:02:15,070 --> 00:02:19,710 Speaker 1: of those people were killed in really barbaric, inhuman situations, 36 00:02:19,750 --> 00:02:24,350 Speaker 1: and that led to a massive nationwide outrage. And you could, 37 00:02:24,508 --> 00:02:25,228 Speaker 1: it would be even fair. 38 00:02:25,339 --> 00:02:29,130 Speaker 1: Say international outrage against the incident and since then we 39 00:02:29,130 --> 00:02:32,928 Speaker 1: saw India first of all pin the blame on Islamabad 40 00:02:32,929 --> 00:02:37,009 Speaker 1: saying that Pakistan has backed these attackers and then said 41 00:02:37,008 --> 00:02:40,449 Speaker 1: that it was going to take measures, the first of 42 00:02:40,449 --> 00:02:43,729 Speaker 1: which was saying that it wants to hold a key 43 00:02:43,729 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: water sharing agreement in abeyance, basically meaning that it suspends it. 44 00:02:47,970 --> 00:02:50,169 Speaker 1: This was seen, of course, as an act of war. 45 00:02:50,279 --> 00:02:54,270 Speaker 1: By Pakistan because this crucial type of water is responsible 46 00:02:54,270 --> 00:02:57,660 Speaker 1: and he can correct me if I'm wrong, for roughly 90% 47 00:02:57,660 --> 00:03:02,269 Speaker 1: of the agricultural needs of Pakistan's population. Pakistan, of course, 48 00:03:02,350 --> 00:03:05,550 Speaker 1: has denied any involvement in this terrorist attack and has 49 00:03:05,550 --> 00:03:09,740 Speaker 1: asked for an independent probe, but India still blames Pakistan. 50 00:03:09,788 --> 00:03:13,070 Speaker 1: It's saying that not only just this attack, but several 51 00:03:13,070 --> 00:03:15,070 Speaker 1: attacks in the past have been sponsored. 52 00:03:15,580 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: By the officials in Islamabad and in that sense India's 53 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,500 Speaker 1: Foreign Secretary Vikram Miri, who we can listen to, said 54 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:26,300 Speaker 1: that this was a response directly to those attacks on 55 00:03:26,300 --> 00:03:30,860 Speaker 1: April 202. It was deemed essential that the perpetrators and 56 00:03:30,860 --> 00:03:35,089 Speaker 1: planners of the 22nd April attack be brought to justice. 57 00:03:35,970 --> 00:03:39,570 Speaker 1: Despite a fortnight having passed since the attacks, there has 58 00:03:39,570 --> 00:03:44,289 Speaker 1: been no demonstrable step from Pakistan to take action against 59 00:03:44,289 --> 00:03:48,050 Speaker 1: the terrorist infrastructure on its territory or on territory under 60 00:03:48,050 --> 00:03:52,729 Speaker 1: its control. Instead, all it has indulged in are denials 61 00:03:52,729 --> 00:03:59,839 Speaker 1: and allegations. These actions were measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible. 62 00:04:00,339 --> 00:04:05,889 Speaker 1: They focused on dismantling the terrorist infrastructure and disabling terrorists 63 00:04:05,889 --> 00:04:07,970 Speaker 1: likely to be sent across to India. 64 00:04:09,029 --> 00:04:12,169 Speaker 1: What's crucial to understand, Theresa, is that India's position is 65 00:04:12,169 --> 00:04:16,500 Speaker 1: that they've only attacked terrorist infrastructure and India maintains its 66 00:04:16,500 --> 00:04:20,230 Speaker 1: position that there was no intention to harm or cause 67 00:04:20,230 --> 00:04:23,260 Speaker 1: any harm to civilian lives. Hi, you've been following this 68 00:04:23,260 --> 00:04:26,059 Speaker 1: story since the news broke on Wednesday. Can you tell 69 00:04:26,059 --> 00:04:29,940 Speaker 1: us more about what Pakistan's response has been? Well, we 70 00:04:29,940 --> 00:04:33,940 Speaker 1: have seen that on Wednesday India has carried out 3 71 00:04:33,940 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: missile attacks and Pakistan administered Kashmir and 72 00:04:37,769 --> 00:04:43,558 Speaker 1: In Pakistan's Punjab province and India claims that India has 73 00:04:43,559 --> 00:04:47,799 Speaker 1: carried out these airstrikes to dismantle the terrorist camps in 74 00:04:47,799 --> 00:04:49,519 Speaker 1: Pakistan administered Kashmir. 75 00:04:49,959 --> 00:04:54,940 Speaker 1: And this has prompted Pakistani authorities coming up with very 76 00:04:54,940 --> 00:05:00,850 Speaker 1: strong statements, and they're claiming that India's allegations in saying 77 00:05:00,850 --> 00:05:05,100 Speaker 1: that Islamabad had any involvement in the terrorist attack that 78 00:05:05,100 --> 00:05:09,459 Speaker 1: happened in Indian administered Kashmir are false allegations, and they 79 00:05:09,459 --> 00:05:13,779 Speaker 1: also reject Indian claims of attacking the terrorist camps in 80 00:05:13,779 --> 00:05:15,899 Speaker 1: Pakistan administered Kashmir. They are. 81 00:05:16,049 --> 00:05:19,679 Speaker 1: Saying Pakistan's army is claiming that those are the civilian 82 00:05:19,678 --> 00:05:25,109 Speaker 1: areas which India has attacked, and they also has shared 83 00:05:25,109 --> 00:05:29,630 Speaker 1: a number that is more than 40 people have sustained 84 00:05:29,630 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 1: injuries as a result of these airstrikes and more than 85 00:05:32,799 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: 30 people are claimed to be dead. So in regards 86 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,789 Speaker 1: to this, Pakistan's Prime Minister held an important national security 87 00:05:40,790 --> 00:05:41,988 Speaker 1: session yesterday. 88 00:05:42,149 --> 00:05:44,820 Speaker 1: In which all the top military officials along with the 89 00:05:44,820 --> 00:05:49,500 Speaker 1: federal ministers were participated in this session, and in this 90 00:05:49,500 --> 00:05:53,579 Speaker 1: national security session some important decisions were taken, and one 91 00:05:53,579 --> 00:05:57,619 Speaker 1: of them was that Pakistani officials have authorized the armed 92 00:05:57,619 --> 00:06:03,769 Speaker 1: forces to retaliate to India's airstrikes, which means that we 93 00:06:03,769 --> 00:06:07,260 Speaker 1: are going to see some major escalation in coming days 94 00:06:07,470 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: given the fact 95 00:06:08,260 --> 00:06:12,989 Speaker 1: Pakistan's military spokesperson in his media briefing has also stated 96 00:06:12,988 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: that Pakistan will avenge the death of the civilians, and 97 00:06:18,359 --> 00:06:23,678 Speaker 1: analysts believe that at this point the international community needs 98 00:06:23,678 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: to step in as here we are talking about two 99 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 1: nuclear armed countries, so we cannot afford regional instability in 100 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:34,239 Speaker 1: South Asia. 101 00:06:34,859 --> 00:06:39,450 Speaker 1: Let's listen to what Pakistan's Information Minister Attallaar has stated 102 00:06:39,450 --> 00:06:42,928 Speaker 1: in one of his media briefings. Pakistan will now respond 103 00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:47,178 Speaker 1: and respond very, very effectively. Make no mistake because our 104 00:06:47,178 --> 00:06:50,089 Speaker 1: desire for peace should not be mistaken for our weakness. 105 00:06:50,209 --> 00:06:52,579 Speaker 1: The fight that we are fighting is not only for us, 106 00:06:52,660 --> 00:06:54,779 Speaker 1: it's for the rest of the world. As far as 107 00:06:54,779 --> 00:06:58,859 Speaker 1: the current situation is ongoing, we are responding. Obviously India 108 00:06:58,859 --> 00:07:00,299 Speaker 1: is the aggressor, provocator. 109 00:07:00,820 --> 00:07:03,579 Speaker 1: As we heard, the information minister, so it's clear that 110 00:07:03,579 --> 00:07:08,049 Speaker 1: Pakistan denies the allegations that are being leveled by India 111 00:07:08,339 --> 00:07:11,989 Speaker 1: linking Pakistan to the terror attack that happened in Indian 112 00:07:11,989 --> 00:07:15,299 Speaker 1: administered Kashmir, and this is what we have been hearing 113 00:07:15,299 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: from the experts that given the whole scenario that how 114 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:22,459 Speaker 1: tensions are mounting between two nuclear armed neighbors, there is 115 00:07:22,459 --> 00:07:26,739 Speaker 1: a possibility of wider conflict in South Asia. 116 00:07:27,119 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: So Ishaan, as Hera has explained, Pakistan is vowing retaliation 117 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: to India strikes. Can you tell us how is India 118 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:36,190 Speaker 1: preparing for it? 119 00:07:36,609 --> 00:07:39,170 Speaker 1: Well, we've been speaking to several defense experts here who 120 00:07:39,170 --> 00:07:44,679 Speaker 1: say that India would have anticipated a response from Pakistan 121 00:07:45,089 --> 00:07:49,570 Speaker 1: while it was planning the airstrikes on Pakistani territory, and 122 00:07:49,570 --> 00:07:51,809 Speaker 1: we've seen a semblance of that in the past few days. 123 00:07:51,970 --> 00:07:55,630 Speaker 1: So for example, from Wednesday morning all the way through 124 00:07:55,630 --> 00:07:59,450 Speaker 1: Thursday morning, we saw several civil defense drills being carried out. 125 00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:04,260 Speaker 1: Particularly in these 244 districts out of the 800 odd 126 00:08:04,260 --> 00:08:07,700 Speaker 1: districts India has, and the focus of this of these 127 00:08:07,700 --> 00:08:10,690 Speaker 1: drills has been to make sure that the civilian population 128 00:08:10,690 --> 00:08:14,980 Speaker 1: really understands what to do in case the worst situation 129 00:08:14,980 --> 00:08:18,899 Speaker 1: does break out. So we've seen drills that include people 130 00:08:18,899 --> 00:08:22,500 Speaker 1: practicing how to take injured people out on stretches, how 131 00:08:22,500 --> 00:08:23,859 Speaker 1: to respond to an air. 132 00:08:24,700 --> 00:08:28,690 Speaker 1: how to reach out to your local police official or 133 00:08:29,089 --> 00:08:32,500 Speaker 1: for the civil defense establishment like paramilitary forces and the 134 00:08:32,500 --> 00:08:34,979 Speaker 1: police forces to respond to a call by the army 135 00:08:34,979 --> 00:08:37,059 Speaker 1: or to communicate with the army. So these sort of 136 00:08:37,059 --> 00:08:40,419 Speaker 1: mock rills have taken place from Wednesday to Thursday. It 137 00:08:40,419 --> 00:08:43,900 Speaker 1: gives people a sense of really how dire the situation 138 00:08:43,900 --> 00:08:46,900 Speaker 1: is and it's important to highlight that this hasn't happened 139 00:08:46,900 --> 00:08:48,140 Speaker 1: since 1971. 140 00:08:48,590 --> 00:08:51,140 Speaker 1: In my lifetime we haven't even heard of a thing 141 00:08:51,140 --> 00:08:55,059 Speaker 1: like this where civilians are being prepped for an escalation 142 00:08:55,059 --> 00:08:58,020 Speaker 1: in tensions that could potentially result in a war. But 143 00:08:58,020 --> 00:09:00,659 Speaker 1: apart from that, there's another problem that the Indian government 144 00:09:00,659 --> 00:09:03,020 Speaker 1: has tried to target in the past 24 hours, which 145 00:09:03,020 --> 00:09:07,150 Speaker 1: is misinformation, the sheer amount of it circulating online, these 146 00:09:07,150 --> 00:09:10,609 Speaker 1: sort of panic messages going out in WhatsApp groups where people, 147 00:09:10,700 --> 00:09:13,020 Speaker 1: you know, messaging each other to say water is going 148 00:09:13,020 --> 00:09:15,900 Speaker 1: to break out any minute. You should stockpile on cash 149 00:09:15,900 --> 00:09:17,900 Speaker 1: on Russian, you know, keep. 150 00:09:18,059 --> 00:09:21,140 Speaker 1: In touch with your loved ones and the information ministry 151 00:09:21,140 --> 00:09:24,250 Speaker 1: has come out with several social media posts as well 152 00:09:24,250 --> 00:09:27,859 Speaker 1: as has asked TV channels here to keep telling the 153 00:09:27,859 --> 00:09:31,609 Speaker 1: audiences across the country not to believe in this information 154 00:09:31,609 --> 00:09:34,369 Speaker 1: like this. And if there is a situation in which 155 00:09:34,369 --> 00:09:38,010 Speaker 1: civilians have to be ready for the worst outcome, it 156 00:09:38,010 --> 00:09:41,169 Speaker 1: will be communicated by the government itself. In terms of 157 00:09:41,169 --> 00:09:44,409 Speaker 1: what the Indian government's response has been, we've seen the 158 00:09:44,409 --> 00:09:47,479 Speaker 1: Interior Minister, Mr. Amit Shah, who is also considered the 159 00:09:47,530 --> 00:09:50,950 Speaker 1: Right-handed man of Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold talks with 160 00:09:50,950 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: the chief ministers of the provinces, the states, and also 161 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: the top bureaucrats there to sensitize them to what could 162 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: be coming in the next few days, which just gives 163 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,039 Speaker 1: you a sense of what's happened on Wednesday India's Operation 164 00:10:03,039 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 1: Sindoor carrying military airstrikes in Pakistan. This might not be 165 00:10:06,719 --> 00:10:09,099 Speaker 1: the end of the story, but rather the beginning of 166 00:10:09,210 --> 00:10:11,919 Speaker 1: something that could very well turn out into a wide 167 00:10:11,919 --> 00:10:15,799 Speaker 1: ranging conflict or at least a prolonged engagement between India 168 00:10:15,799 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: and Pakistani armies. 169 00:10:17,469 --> 00:10:20,140 Speaker 1: Yeah, as you say, no question, this is a very 170 00:10:20,140 --> 00:10:25,299 Speaker 1: delicate situation that could have regional reverberations if things escalate. China, 171 00:10:25,380 --> 00:10:28,579 Speaker 1: for one, has been trying to position itself as a peacemaker, 172 00:10:28,659 --> 00:10:31,939 Speaker 1: a leader of the global South, but it has close 173 00:10:31,940 --> 00:10:35,549 Speaker 1: ties with Pakistan. Take a listen. Here is Chinese Foreign 174 00:10:35,549 --> 00:10:39,390 Speaker 1: Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian commenting on the conflict. 175 00:10:40,710 --> 00:10:44,729 Speaker 1: India and Pakistan will always be each other's neighbors that 176 00:10:44,729 --> 00:10:49,169 Speaker 1: cannot move away. They're both China's neighbors as well. China 177 00:10:49,169 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: opposes all forms of terrorism. 178 00:10:51,909 --> 00:10:55,070 Speaker 1: We urge India and Pakistan to act in the larger 179 00:10:55,070 --> 00:10:59,848 Speaker 1: interests of peace and stability, remain calm, exercise restraint, and 180 00:10:59,849 --> 00:11:04,239 Speaker 1: refrain from taking actions that may further complicate the situation. 181 00:11:04,609 --> 00:11:07,369 Speaker 1: We are willing to work together with the international community 182 00:11:07,369 --> 00:11:10,940 Speaker 1: to play a constructive role in easing the current situation. 183 00:11:11,989 --> 00:11:15,590 Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump has been watching events unfold as well, 184 00:11:15,710 --> 00:11:19,020 Speaker 1: and he had this to say earlier from the Oval Office, 185 00:11:19,630 --> 00:11:23,460 Speaker 1: it's so terrible. My position is, I get along with both. 186 00:11:23,950 --> 00:11:25,989 Speaker 1: I know both very well, and I want to see 187 00:11:25,989 --> 00:11:28,059 Speaker 1: them work it out. I want to see him stop 188 00:11:28,669 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: and hopefully they can stop now. They've gone tit for tat, 189 00:11:32,710 --> 00:11:34,659 Speaker 1: and if I can do anything to help, I will, 190 00:11:34,830 --> 00:11:35,618 Speaker 1: I will be there. 191 00:11:36,429 --> 00:11:38,539 Speaker 1: Before we go, I want to ask you both how 192 00:11:38,539 --> 00:11:42,030 Speaker 1: much room is there for diplomacy in the days and 193 00:11:42,030 --> 00:11:46,030 Speaker 1: the weeks ahead, or do you think more violence is inevitable? Well, 194 00:11:46,070 --> 00:11:50,150 Speaker 1: we have seen similar situation in 2019 when a terrorist 195 00:11:50,150 --> 00:11:53,949 Speaker 1: attack happened in Indian administered Kashmir and tensions were really 196 00:11:53,950 --> 00:11:58,190 Speaker 1: high back then also because we have seen similar accusations 197 00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:03,059 Speaker 1: that India is leveling today against Islamabad of stating that 198 00:12:03,111 --> 00:12:07,182 Speaker 1: Islamabad is involved in the terrorist attack that happened in Bahelham. 199 00:12:07,261 --> 00:12:09,702 Speaker 1: So the situation is pretty much the same that happened 200 00:12:09,702 --> 00:12:14,460 Speaker 1: in 2019, and we saw in 2019 US played a 201 00:12:14,461 --> 00:12:18,540 Speaker 1: very important role in diffusing the tensions between India and Pakistan. 202 00:12:18,581 --> 00:12:22,021 Speaker 1: And as you already mentioned that US President Donald Trump 203 00:12:22,021 --> 00:12:25,911 Speaker 1: is urging both India and Pakistan to exercise maximum restraint 204 00:12:25,910 --> 00:12:29,981 Speaker 1: and is now offering mediation to help ease the tensions. 205 00:12:30,104 --> 00:12:34,373 Speaker 1: The two countries, so there could be a possibility that 206 00:12:34,374 --> 00:12:39,044 Speaker 1: in coming days there could be a de-escalation from both sides. 207 00:12:39,054 --> 00:12:42,493 Speaker 1: But then again, as we are seeing some strong statements 208 00:12:42,494 --> 00:12:45,614 Speaker 1: coming from both sides of the border, we are listening 209 00:12:45,614 --> 00:12:50,973 Speaker 1: to Pakistan's military spokesperson stating that Pakistan will retaliate. India 210 00:12:50,973 --> 00:12:54,414 Speaker 1: should brace itself for a more kinetic reaction as a 211 00:12:54,414 --> 00:12:56,973 Speaker 1: result of the Indian airstrikes that happened in. 212 00:12:57,096 --> 00:13:01,486 Speaker 1: Pakistan administered Kashmir. The situation is pretty tense, but we 213 00:13:01,486 --> 00:13:05,125 Speaker 1: are also hearing from the experts who are saying that 214 00:13:05,125 --> 00:13:09,346 Speaker 1: if the regional players like US and China step up 215 00:13:09,346 --> 00:13:13,635 Speaker 1: their efforts, then there is a possibility that the situation 216 00:13:13,635 --> 00:13:18,045 Speaker 1: might dial down. Having said that, China is a strong 217 00:13:18,046 --> 00:13:23,515 Speaker 1: weather friend of Pakistan, and we have seen Chinese ambassador 218 00:13:23,515 --> 00:13:24,005 Speaker 1: having one. 219 00:13:24,838 --> 00:13:28,718 Speaker 1: meetings with Pakistani officials in Islamabad. We have seen Interior 220 00:13:28,718 --> 00:13:33,958 Speaker 1: Minister closely communicating with the Chinese Foreign Minister here, and 221 00:13:33,958 --> 00:13:38,117 Speaker 1: we have seen statements coming out from Chinese ambassadors stating 222 00:13:38,117 --> 00:13:42,078 Speaker 1: that China is willing to cooperate and urges both India 223 00:13:42,078 --> 00:13:46,278 Speaker 1: and Pakistan to work out the tensions through diplomacy. But 224 00:13:46,278 --> 00:13:49,918 Speaker 1: we have also seen a very strong response of China 225 00:13:49,918 --> 00:13:51,028 Speaker 1: stating that 226 00:13:51,109 --> 00:13:56,179 Speaker 1: China stands with Pakistan in these difficult times. In that regard, 227 00:13:56,270 --> 00:13:59,830 Speaker 1: we have seen the federal ministers of the country, Pakistan's 228 00:13:59,830 --> 00:14:03,150 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, and also the former Foreign Minister Bilawan Bhutto, 229 00:14:03,309 --> 00:14:06,659 Speaker 1: stating that Pakistan does not want to go to war. 230 00:14:06,830 --> 00:14:10,098 Speaker 1: Pakistan does not seek war. War is not a solution. 231 00:14:10,229 --> 00:14:14,549 Speaker 1: So Pakistan is willing to work through this diplomacy and 232 00:14:14,549 --> 00:14:18,020 Speaker 1: is willing to cooperate with India, and I 233 00:14:18,072 --> 00:14:20,861 Speaker 1: I'd like to highlight that Pakistan Prime Minister made a 234 00:14:20,861 --> 00:14:24,341 Speaker 1: very important point in yesterday's National Assembly session which he 235 00:14:24,341 --> 00:14:28,661 Speaker 1: stated that Pakistan is willing to cooperate with India if 236 00:14:28,661 --> 00:14:33,252 Speaker 1: India provides any sort of credible evidence that Islamabad is 237 00:14:33,252 --> 00:14:37,311 Speaker 1: involved in backing up the terrorists, that India is pointing towards, 238 00:14:37,502 --> 00:14:41,681 Speaker 1: talking about the terrorist attack that happened in Indian administered Kashmir, 239 00:14:41,861 --> 00:14:44,981 Speaker 1: and Pakistan is seeking an independent probe. Pakistan. 240 00:14:45,064 --> 00:14:48,973 Speaker 1: is urging the international community to launch an investigation, and 241 00:14:48,973 --> 00:14:53,484 Speaker 1: Pakistan is extending an olive branch to India to come 242 00:14:53,484 --> 00:14:57,684 Speaker 1: and sit with Islamabad and look into this matter that 243 00:14:58,013 --> 00:15:02,184 Speaker 1: what's actually happening on ground and who is responsible for 244 00:15:02,184 --> 00:15:06,333 Speaker 1: carrying out these terrorist attacks, because Pakistan itself is bearing 245 00:15:06,333 --> 00:15:09,854 Speaker 1: the brunt of terrorist activities on its western borders. The 246 00:15:09,854 --> 00:15:11,934 Speaker 1: defense minister has stated that Pakistan. 247 00:15:12,075 --> 00:15:15,085 Speaker 1: is fighting a war on its western borders itself, and 248 00:15:15,085 --> 00:15:17,806 Speaker 1: we have seen in the past couple of months the 249 00:15:17,806 --> 00:15:22,515 Speaker 1: terrorist activities that are taking place in Pakistan's Balochistan province 250 00:15:22,515 --> 00:15:27,005 Speaker 1: when a train was kept hostage for more than 24 hours. 251 00:15:27,125 --> 00:15:31,205 Speaker 1: This is what Dr. Walter Ludwig, associate fellow at King's 252 00:15:31,205 --> 00:15:34,765 Speaker 1: College London, is also telling us that diplomacy is the 253 00:15:34,765 --> 00:15:38,885 Speaker 1: key to sort this ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan. 254 00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:44,090 Speaker 1: The optimistic case here is that the Pakistani military will 255 00:15:44,090 --> 00:15:51,359 Speaker 1: respond in some way that allows them to defend or 256 00:15:51,369 --> 00:15:54,770 Speaker 1: or or or restore their honor, but that it goes 257 00:15:54,770 --> 00:15:59,450 Speaker 1: no further, that there is not a target set or 258 00:15:59,450 --> 00:16:03,039 Speaker 1: losses inflicted such that the Indian side needs to respond 259 00:16:03,039 --> 00:16:03,979 Speaker 1: to the response. 260 00:16:04,190 --> 00:16:06,510 Speaker 1: If the latter happens, then we start to get in 261 00:16:06,510 --> 00:16:10,059 Speaker 1: an upward escalatory spiral where, you know, what will the 262 00:16:10,059 --> 00:16:12,700 Speaker 1: next set of targets be, because if India attacks terrorist 263 00:16:12,700 --> 00:16:15,340 Speaker 1: camps or what it believes are terrorist camps and Pakistan 264 00:16:15,340 --> 00:16:18,299 Speaker 1: say responds by attacking Indian military targets, even if it's 265 00:16:18,299 --> 00:16:21,940 Speaker 1: the bases from which those missiles and airstrikes came from, 266 00:16:22,090 --> 00:16:25,450 Speaker 1: and then India attacks Pakistani military facilities, you can see 267 00:16:25,450 --> 00:16:28,330 Speaker 1: how this could could quickly move us up the threshold 268 00:16:28,330 --> 00:16:28,940 Speaker 1: of conflict. 269 00:16:29,590 --> 00:16:34,820 Speaker 1: The room for diplomacy between India and Pakistan, this is 270 00:16:34,820 --> 00:16:37,380 Speaker 1: where things get really, really tricky because experts have been 271 00:16:37,380 --> 00:16:41,179 Speaker 1: telling us the trust deficit between New Delhi and Islamabad has, 272 00:16:41,250 --> 00:16:43,900 Speaker 1: has nearly eroded over the past several decades. I mean, 273 00:16:43,940 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 1: we're talking about two countries that have fought 4 wars 274 00:16:47,700 --> 00:16:50,890 Speaker 1: and have come to the brink of fighting at least 275 00:16:50,890 --> 00:16:54,419 Speaker 1: 3 other wars in the past, since their independence really 276 00:16:54,419 --> 00:16:56,869 Speaker 1: since 1947, and 277 00:16:57,210 --> 00:16:59,559 Speaker 1: In the past 10 to 12 years we've seen the 278 00:16:59,559 --> 00:17:04,719 Speaker 1: diplomatic engagement between Delhi and Islamabad hit rock bottom. Both 279 00:17:04,719 --> 00:17:09,329 Speaker 1: countries barely have any diplomatic presence in either countries. The 280 00:17:09,329 --> 00:17:13,829 Speaker 1: diplomatic core has been downsized time and again in both countries, 281 00:17:13,989 --> 00:17:17,770 Speaker 1: and when it comes to mediation through a third party, 282 00:17:18,439 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: then it becomes a question of which third party can 283 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: you trust. 284 00:17:22,699 --> 00:17:25,250 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump, as we heard, has said that he 285 00:17:25,250 --> 00:17:28,420 Speaker 1: is going to be there if India and Pakistan come 286 00:17:28,420 --> 00:17:30,819 Speaker 1: to the table. That could be a viable solution, but 287 00:17:30,819 --> 00:17:33,859 Speaker 1: will India and Pakistan come to the table? That is 288 00:17:33,859 --> 00:17:36,500 Speaker 1: the big question. And given the trust deficit that we've 289 00:17:36,500 --> 00:17:39,938 Speaker 1: heard a lot about, that might be unlikely. What could 290 00:17:39,939 --> 00:17:42,500 Speaker 1: be the repercussions of that? I mean, the worst outcome 291 00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:45,060 Speaker 1: certainly seems to be that India and Pakistan go to 292 00:17:45,060 --> 00:17:47,099 Speaker 1: a full-fledged war. This won't be the. 293 00:17:47,199 --> 00:17:49,510 Speaker 1: The time would actually be the 5th time that they 294 00:17:49,510 --> 00:17:53,469 Speaker 1: might if they do, and that threat of a war 295 00:17:53,469 --> 00:17:57,310 Speaker 1: between these two nuclear rivals, that threat is going to 296 00:17:57,310 --> 00:18:00,810 Speaker 1: be detrimental for the stability of the wider region, but 297 00:18:00,810 --> 00:18:04,109 Speaker 1: it's also a threat that's very real. And we've got 298 00:18:04,109 --> 00:18:07,390 Speaker 1: South Asia expert Michael Kugelman who explains a little bit 299 00:18:07,390 --> 00:18:09,890 Speaker 1: about what could be the worst outcome if these two 300 00:18:09,890 --> 00:18:11,869 Speaker 1: countries keep escalating tensions. 301 00:18:12,420 --> 00:18:15,300 Speaker 2: This is such a worrisome situation because you are looking 302 00:18:15,300 --> 00:18:19,260 Speaker 2: at two militaries that are very strong and are willing 303 00:18:19,260 --> 00:18:23,819 Speaker 2: to use limited force against each other, even under the 304 00:18:23,819 --> 00:18:27,099 Speaker 2: nuclear umbrella. And obviously the more you do that and 305 00:18:27,099 --> 00:18:30,020 Speaker 2: the more the hostilities that are, that are used under 306 00:18:30,020 --> 00:18:33,900 Speaker 2: that nuclear umbrella, the, the more risk there is of 307 00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:36,290 Speaker 2: getting to a point where you have to worry about 308 00:18:36,290 --> 00:18:39,699 Speaker 2: nuclear escalation, and that's the key takeaway here. 309 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,780 Speaker 1: So the threat of a nuclear war always remains between 310 00:18:43,780 --> 00:18:47,449 Speaker 1: India and Pakistan because their nuclear stockpile is also quite 311 00:18:47,449 --> 00:18:51,579 Speaker 1: high and almost in proportionate in equal amounts. So this 312 00:18:51,579 --> 00:18:55,180 Speaker 1: threat certainly is out there. We are seeing the international 313 00:18:55,180 --> 00:18:59,650 Speaker 1: community along with the US, the United Nations, China, Russia, 314 00:18:59,900 --> 00:19:01,979 Speaker 1: several countries urging restraint. 315 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,719 Speaker 1: At the same time, we're also hearing from officials in 316 00:19:05,719 --> 00:19:09,079 Speaker 1: India who say that it all really depends and all 317 00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: eyes are going to be what Islamabad does next because 318 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: India's position has been that it has carried out its 319 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: airstrikes on terrorist territory. If Islamabad does choose to retaliate 320 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: to that. 321 00:19:20,420 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: India says that it will be ready to defend itself. 322 00:19:23,010 --> 00:19:25,329 Speaker 1: It's a comment that is not too dissimilar from what 323 00:19:25,329 --> 00:19:29,229 Speaker 1: we've heard from Islamabad, making sure that both countries remain 324 00:19:29,489 --> 00:19:34,329 Speaker 1: on the edge while their armies continue exchanging gunfire and 325 00:19:34,329 --> 00:19:36,050 Speaker 1: exchanging bombings at the borders. 326 00:19:36,530 --> 00:19:40,599 Speaker 1: Isha here, a delicate story with so many regional and 327 00:19:40,599 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 1: global implications depending on what happens next. Thank you for 328 00:19:44,439 --> 00:19:46,479 Speaker 1: helping our listeners make sense of it all. Thank you. 329 00:19:47,189 --> 00:19:50,239 Speaker 1: Thank you. Head to YouTube and CNA.Asia for the latest 330 00:19:50,239 --> 00:19:54,839 Speaker 1: on the India-Pakistan conflict and to watch Ishan and Hera's reports. 331 00:19:55,199 --> 00:19:57,729 Speaker 1: I'm Teresa Tang. Thanks for joining me for this special 332 00:19:57,729 --> 00:20:00,949 Speaker 1: episode of the CNA Correspondent podcast. It's brought to you 333 00:20:00,949 --> 00:20:05,089 Speaker 1: by Saya Win, Clara Ong, Tiffany Ung, Junai Johari, and 334 00:20:05,089 --> 00:20:06,540 Speaker 1: Craig Dale. Bye for now.