WEBVTT - US - Ukraine tensions: can they mend ties after this aid freeze?

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<v Speaker 1>Now CNA 938 rewind. Our top story today takes our

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<v Speaker 1>focus to the war in Ukraine. You might have seen

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend that public row at the White House

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<v Speaker 1>between US President Donald Trump and his VP JD Vance

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<v Speaker 1>and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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<v Speaker 1>It's apparent that the rift between the US and Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>is growing, fueling uncertainty about American support for the war-torn country.

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<v Speaker 1>Yet in spite of all that, Mr. Trump has played

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<v Speaker 1>down reports that he would cut aid to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>He also said that the possibility of a minerals deal

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<v Speaker 1>was not dead yet. At the same time, Mr. Zelinsky

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<v Speaker 1>now appears to be ramping up pressure on his European allies.

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<v Speaker 1>European leaders seem to agree that the war should end soon.

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<v Speaker 1>But can't seem to guarantee peace without Washington's help. They're

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<v Speaker 1>also divided on how to end the war. So where

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<v Speaker 1>could all this see Ukraine and Russia head to? Let's

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<v Speaker 1>ask Graham Gale. He is professor emeritus for government and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations.

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<v Speaker 1>at the University of Sydney. Good to have you back,

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Gill. Now, US President Donald Trump is suggesting that

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<v Speaker 1>his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, quote, won't be around very

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<v Speaker 1>long if he does not agree to a deal with Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this really an existential crisis for President Zelensky? Does

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian leader have any leverage in negotiations at all?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, he doesn't have a great deal of leverage because

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine is overwhelmingly dependent upon support by the West for

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<v Speaker 2>its uh for its continuation of the war effort.

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<v Speaker 2>And Zelensky's problem domestically is that he's associated with this

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<v Speaker 2>idea of war to a victorious end. If you look

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<v Speaker 2>at at what Zelensky has been saying over the last

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<v Speaker 2>3 years, it's actually changed fundamentally, uh, over the last

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<v Speaker 2>6 months or so. Initially he was saying war to

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<v Speaker 2>a victorious end, which means getting back all of the

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<v Speaker 2>territories that existed as part of Ukraine prior to 2014.

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<v Speaker 2>Now he's talking about the need to establish Ukraine with

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<v Speaker 2>a strong position to negotiate with Russia, so that he

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<v Speaker 2>actually accepts what the Europeans publicly don't seem to accept

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<v Speaker 2>but which Donald Trump does accept, and that is that

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<v Speaker 2>if the trajectory of the war goes on the way

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<v Speaker 2>it is, and it's likely to, Russia has won and

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine has lost, and that means that that,

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<v Speaker 2>Zelensky realizes that negotiations are coming up, but what he

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<v Speaker 2>wants is strong support on his side, preferably by the

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<v Speaker 2>Americans and certainly by the, by the Europeans. So, so

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<v Speaker 2>Zelensky's really got very little, little, uh, wiggle room here

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<v Speaker 2>at all, I think.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor, we can see that Mr. Trump's priority is to

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<v Speaker 1>end the war at any cost, uh, and he wants

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<v Speaker 1>it done now, doesn't want to prolong it for years,

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<v Speaker 1>but what is complicated. What is Mr. Trump not appreciating

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<v Speaker 1>about this?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think he doesn't appreciate that if there's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be a uh an effective and long-term peace, it's

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<v Speaker 2>got to be negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Not between

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<v Speaker 2>Russia and America, not between Europe and and uh Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 2>which is what the Europeans seem to think it's all about,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's got to be between Russia and Ukraine, and

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<v Speaker 2>only those two countries can,

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<v Speaker 2>Make agreements which they will both hopefully then uh abide

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<v Speaker 2>by into the future. Any agreements that are made between

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<v Speaker 2>Russia and America, for example, or Russia and Europe, why

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<v Speaker 2>should Ukraine, uh, agree to go along with them? Why

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<v Speaker 2>should it abide by them in the future? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's really got to be resolved between the two countries.

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<v Speaker 2>And it really doesn't matter what Trump says in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of uh of minerals or troops or or or anything else,

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<v Speaker 2>in a sense it doesn't change that basic issue. It's

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<v Speaker 2>agreement between Kiev and Moscow that's crucial, not between Moscow

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<v Speaker 2>and Washington.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, uh, the two sides didn't sign that minerals deal, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that was really played up by Donald Trump during the

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<v Speaker 1>White House meeting. Uh, rather tense meeting, I should say. Now, Mr.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump insists it's not off the table though, Professor. What

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<v Speaker 1>might compel Mr. Zelensky now to sign this agreement, especially

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<v Speaker 1>after those theatrics at the White House we saw last weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean, Zelensky must see that there's some advantage

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<v Speaker 2>to Ukraine in in this. I'm not sure what the

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<v Speaker 2>advantage is, and I'm not sure what the advantage to

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<v Speaker 2>the US is either, because, I mean, Ukraine does not

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<v Speaker 2>possess the, the critical minerals that are that that that

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<v Speaker 2>the Americans were talking about originally, and their minerals economy

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<v Speaker 2>or the mineral sector of the economy is is is

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<v Speaker 2>relatively small. So,

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<v Speaker 2>Why America is is talking about going in there is

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<v Speaker 2>a bit sort of unclear to me. Why Zelensky would

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<v Speaker 2>see it as being important is that he believes that

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<v Speaker 2>it would then commit the US to defend Ukraine. And

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<v Speaker 2>in some ways that might actually happen. But let's be clear, no,

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<v Speaker 2>no American company is going to invest in Ukraine until

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<v Speaker 2>they're certain that the war is over and B not

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<v Speaker 2>gonna start again.

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<v Speaker 2>So the whole minerals issue is really a second order one.

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<v Speaker 2>You've got to get the, you've gotta get the war

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<v Speaker 2>finished first before the minerals can actually come into play

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<v Speaker 2>at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Meanwhile, a remarkable show of mostly European unity on display

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<v Speaker 1>in London, perhaps showing that Europe finally quote unquote woken up.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of this scrambling can be attributed to Mr.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump essentially headed for the exit from America's relationship with Europe?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'm not sure whether the uh whether the Europeans

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<v Speaker 2>have said anything differently and done anything differently to what

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<v Speaker 2>they've been doing over the last couple of years. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>we've had these meetings before, they've finished with uh with

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<v Speaker 2>grand statements and very little has come, has come from it. What's.

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<v Speaker 2>Different about this is that all of a sudden they've

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<v Speaker 2>realized that NATO might not be the, the rock solid,

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<v Speaker 2>secure alliance that they, that they thought that it was.

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<v Speaker 2>And therefore, what they're trying to do is to, in

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<v Speaker 2>a sense, keep two balls in the air at once.

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<v Speaker 2>One is to one is to continue to provide support

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<v Speaker 2>for Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>The other one is not to get offside with the

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<v Speaker 2>US and it's not clear how those two things can be,

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<v Speaker 2>can be um uh maintained continually.

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<v Speaker 2>If Trump continues to take the attitude that he took

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<v Speaker 2>to Ukraine that was evident in the Friday meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>Still, as Europe steps up, they want to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>US involved. France and the UK proposed a monthlong truce

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<v Speaker 1>and a peace plan. Now what's the possibility of the

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<v Speaker 1>US and the EU actually finding common ground on their

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<v Speaker 1>approach to Ukraine?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they might find common ground, but uh uh it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't matter. I mean, what they've got to do is

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<v Speaker 2>to get Russia to agree. It's all very well to

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<v Speaker 2>say we're going to have, uh, we're going to put

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<v Speaker 2>in a European force of peacekeepers when Russia has already

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<v Speaker 2>said they're not going to accept the European force of peacekeepers.

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<v Speaker 2>So what sort of world are the Europeans living in here?

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<v Speaker 2>What they're, what they're assuming is that a peace can

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<v Speaker 2>effectively be imposed by the US and Europe.

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<v Speaker 2>And Ukraine, and it just won't work that way, particularly

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<v Speaker 2>if it's correct that Russia is winning the war, and

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<v Speaker 2>therefore Ukraine is the weaker of the two parties. If

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<v Speaker 2>you look at it historically, the side that wins the

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<v Speaker 2>war is the one that determines the terms of the peace.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not the allies of the defeated party.

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<v Speaker 2>So the, the Europeans, I think, are, are really caught here.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I don't know whether they accept that uh

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<v Speaker 2>that Ukraine is losing the war or has lost the

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<v Speaker 2>war and they won't say it in public.

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<v Speaker 2>Or whether they're so blind that they don't see that

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<v Speaker 2>things are going against Ukraine. Personally, I think it's the

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<v Speaker 2>first one. They know that that Ukraine is losing, but

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<v Speaker 2>they can't say that in public because they would then

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<v Speaker 2>lose face and their policies over the last three years

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<v Speaker 2>would be shown to be a shambles and to be

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<v Speaker 2>to be a failure. And so, I mean, I think the, the,

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<v Speaker 2>the problem here for Ukraine is that not everybody is,

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<v Speaker 2>On the Ukrainian side is working in the best interests

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine. Best interests would be to stop the fighting

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<v Speaker 2>now and to get some sort of a peace agreement,

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<v Speaker 2>not to say we'll continue to give you more weapons

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<v Speaker 2>to continue the

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<v Speaker 2>fight.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor, we've got a question on Russia. We'll get to

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<v Speaker 1>that in a moment, but for now we want to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you, do you see the US getting behind Keir

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<v Speaker 1>Starmer's four-step plan? He does stress Europe will do the

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<v Speaker 1>heavy lifting.

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<v Speaker 1>But the US must still ultimately provide that military backstop.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, he said he won't, uh, so we can't always

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<v Speaker 2>believe what he says, that he can, he doesn't always

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<v Speaker 2>continue through with what he, he says he's going to do,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's said up until now that he's not going

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<v Speaker 2>to provide that sort of, uh, that sort of backstop.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course, again, you've got to ask about the Americans.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, they've said, you know, we can do this

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<v Speaker 2>providing the Americans do what they say they're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to do. So how realistic and how genuine is the

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<v Speaker 2>European offer, which it just doesn't seem to me to

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<v Speaker 2>be uh,

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<v Speaker 2>To be one that's uh that's, that's got any legs

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<v Speaker 2>at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor, we're going to get to a couple more questions

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<v Speaker 1>regarding uh Mr. Putin and of course China, but this

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<v Speaker 1>has just come in from the news wires. President Trump has, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>according to media reports in the US, paused all military

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<v Speaker 1>aid to Ukraine. Uh, what does this mean now that

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<v Speaker 1>they did clarify that this is not a permanent termination

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<v Speaker 1>of aid, it's a pause. Is this part of the

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<v Speaker 1>process here based on what we saw over the last weekend?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think, I think Trump is trying to put

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<v Speaker 2>pressure on uh on Ukraine to uh to negotiate and.

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<v Speaker 2>The quickest way of doing that is to hinder his

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<v Speaker 2>the Ukraine's ability to continue fighting, and I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>what Trump has been about virtually since he was elected,

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<v Speaker 2>that he's, he,

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<v Speaker 2>For one reason or another, he does want peace to, to,

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<v Speaker 2>to come about in the region. Perhaps it's, it's for, for,

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<v Speaker 2>for the right sort of reasons, perhaps it's because he

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<v Speaker 2>wants the US to be able to get in economically

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<v Speaker 2>into Ukraine, who knows. But since he's come to power,

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<v Speaker 2>he does seem to want peace in the region, and

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<v Speaker 2>the quickest way to bring that peace is to bring

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<v Speaker 2>the parties to the negotiating table. And one way of

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<v Speaker 2>doing that is to, to, for Ukraine at least is

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<v Speaker 2>to cut off support to Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know whether that's what he's thinking, but that's,

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<v Speaker 2>that seems to me to fit with the overall strategy

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<v Speaker 2>of what he's been doing over the last, uh, last

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<v Speaker 2>month or so.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor, we want to go back to Russia now, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>as we mentioned. How do you think Russian President Vladimir

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is watching all this? How might he capitalize on

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<v Speaker 1>the growing tensions between Kiev and Washington?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think at the moment all he has to

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<v Speaker 2>do is to sit quiet and do nothing because they

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<v Speaker 2>seem to be, they seem to be, uh, be doing

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<v Speaker 2>it all themselves. Um, he has, he has uh he

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<v Speaker 2>has intimated that uh that Russia has the sort of

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<v Speaker 2>minerals that the US is that the US wants, and

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<v Speaker 2>it would be willing to enter into an agreement to

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<v Speaker 2>uh to supply those um,

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, those minerals. So that's, that's one way that he's

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<v Speaker 2>seeking to sort of undercut, if you like, the, uh, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>the Ukrainian position. Um, but I think what he, what he,

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<v Speaker 2>what he, what he'll do is, he won't say anything.

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<v Speaker 2>He doesn't need to say anything. I think what will

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<v Speaker 2>be interesting is what happens on the ground, and if we,

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<v Speaker 2>if we now see a a major Russian push on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground in eastern Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh, what that will suggest is that he's trying to

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<v Speaker 2>take advantage of this, this lapse in support for Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>and the weakness of Ukraine, because what Putin wants is,

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<v Speaker 2>is recognition of Russian control over the five provinces of Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, they occupy only one of those totally, the other 4,

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<v Speaker 2>they occupy part thereof. And ideally what you would like

0:12:48.049 --> 0:12:51.000
<v Speaker 2>to see is Russian troops getting up to the borders

0:12:51.210 --> 0:12:55.210
<v Speaker 2>of those provinces by the time negotiations open, I think.

0:12:56.210 --> 0:13:01.679
<v Speaker 1>Uh, another audience member watching from afar, Professor, is China. Uh,

0:13:01.729 --> 0:13:05.650
<v Speaker 1>it's observing the US wanting to reduce its involvement in

0:13:05.650 --> 0:13:08.510
<v Speaker 1>Europe effectively and the war as well, not to mention.

0:13:08.929 --> 0:13:13.239
<v Speaker 1>Uh, very having very little involvement other than voicing up, uh,

0:13:13.250 --> 0:13:17.849
<v Speaker 1>voicing out rather against what's happening in Ukraine. Now, the

0:13:17.849 --> 0:13:21.570
<v Speaker 1>bigger question is what could China glean from all of

0:13:21.570 --> 0:13:24.090
<v Speaker 1>this for its own objectives?

0:13:25.900 --> 0:13:29.739
<v Speaker 2>Well, who, who knows, it's very difficult to discern what

0:13:29.739 --> 0:13:32.770
<v Speaker 2>China is going to do anyway, but I mean the,

0:13:34.390 --> 0:13:39.989
<v Speaker 2>China, China, China will see that it's alliance or it's

0:13:39.989 --> 0:13:44.359
<v Speaker 2>it's relationship with Russia is in part a function of

0:13:44.359 --> 0:13:47.830
<v Speaker 2>the breakdown of the Russian relationship with the West. And

0:13:47.830 --> 0:13:50.989
<v Speaker 2>so if there is any improvement in the Russian relationship

0:13:50.989 --> 0:13:53.510
<v Speaker 2>with the West, and there could be with the US

0:13:53.510 --> 0:13:55.409
<v Speaker 2>if not with Europe for some time.

0:13:55.799 --> 0:13:59.440
<v Speaker 2>Uh, that, that might then give some pause to the

0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:03.239
<v Speaker 2>Chinese in terms of how, how, how firm they see

0:14:03.239 --> 0:14:07.238
<v Speaker 2>their relationship with, with Russia being, um.

0:14:08.030 --> 0:14:12.179
<v Speaker 2>But in contrast, they can, they can, they can read the,

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.090
<v Speaker 2>they can read the, uh, read the tea leaves as well.

0:14:15.119 --> 0:14:18.039
<v Speaker 2>And clearly what uh, what the Americans are trying to

0:14:18.039 --> 0:14:22.559
<v Speaker 2>do is to reduce their, their exposure in Europe, which

0:14:22.559 --> 0:14:25.969
<v Speaker 2>will enable them to transfer more of their efforts to

0:14:25.969 --> 0:14:29.390
<v Speaker 2>uh to Asia and therefore potentially to confronting China.

0:14:29.969 --> 0:14:34.299
<v Speaker 2>Uh, and that means that, uh, that while, while I

0:14:34.299 --> 0:14:37.359
<v Speaker 2>think the Chinese would like to see peace between Russia

0:14:37.359 --> 0:14:42.479
<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine, because both have traditionally been friends of China, um,

0:14:43.090 --> 0:14:46.359
<v Speaker 2>they are, I think they probably would be worried about

0:14:46.359 --> 0:14:50.169
<v Speaker 2>the geopolitical consequences of that in terms of the relationship

0:14:50.169 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 2>with the US.

0:14:52.390 --> 0:14:55.869
<v Speaker 1>With the US reducing its exposure to Europe, as you say, Professor,

0:14:55.950 --> 0:14:59.349
<v Speaker 1>could we also see China perhaps taking advantage of a

0:14:59.349 --> 0:15:04.179
<v Speaker 1>potential reduced exposure on the part of the US to Taiwan,

0:15:04.190 --> 0:15:07.830
<v Speaker 1>for example, uh, and the rest of Southeast Asia as

0:15:07.830 --> 0:15:11.179
<v Speaker 1>well uh to influence its perhaps its own plans for

0:15:11.179 --> 0:15:12.070
<v Speaker 1>the island.

0:15:13.700 --> 0:15:16.130
<v Speaker 2>Well, of course this is what's always been talked about

0:15:16.130 --> 0:15:20.520
<v Speaker 2>that China will see Taiwan in terms of in terms

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:21.780
<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine and if

0:15:22.390 --> 0:15:26.380
<v Speaker 2>If Putin is successful or the Russians are successful, then

0:15:26.380 --> 0:15:28.659
<v Speaker 2>that might be seen as giving a sort of a

0:15:28.659 --> 0:15:30.119
<v Speaker 2>green light to

0:15:30.729 --> 0:15:32.460
<v Speaker 2>To takeover of Taiwan.

0:15:33.469 --> 0:15:36.510
<v Speaker 2>Uh, I mean, the issue, of course, is that, uh, that,

0:15:36.570 --> 0:15:38.950
<v Speaker 2>that both sides can learn a lesson from this. I mean,

0:15:38.989 --> 0:15:42.630
<v Speaker 2>if the, if the Chinese do, uh, do read the

0:15:42.630 --> 0:15:46.669
<v Speaker 2>Ukraine situation as one which opens the door for them to, uh,

0:15:46.710 --> 0:15:50.590
<v Speaker 2>for Taiwan, well, then the opponents of that move will

0:15:50.590 --> 0:15:54.820
<v Speaker 2>also see the Ukraine, uh, situation as being one which,

0:15:54.929 --> 0:15:58.950
<v Speaker 2>which dictates that there must be an even firmer line taken.

0:15:59.489 --> 0:16:01.729
<v Speaker 2>With China. So that what you might see is that

0:16:02.090 --> 0:16:05.159
<v Speaker 2>places like Japan, Korea, and, you know, perhaps the US,

0:16:05.250 --> 0:16:08.890
<v Speaker 2>but again, who knows with Trump, um, might become even

0:16:08.890 --> 0:16:15.330
<v Speaker 2>more intent on supporting Taiwan and preventing any Chinese, uh,

0:16:15.409 --> 0:16:18.809
<v Speaker 2>any Chinese takeover. I mean, I, I still think it's

0:16:18.809 --> 0:16:21.969
<v Speaker 2>unlikely that the Chinese would uh would try militarily to

0:16:21.969 --> 0:16:23.690
<v Speaker 2>take over Taiwan, but um.

0:16:24.460 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm not a scholar.

0:16:26.260 --> 0:16:26.380
<v Speaker 1>That's

0:16:26.380 --> 0:16:29.219
<v Speaker 1>a fair assessment, Professor. Uh, I think that that what

0:16:29.219 --> 0:16:32.299
<v Speaker 1>the points that you've put across certainly have made their points, uh,

0:16:32.419 --> 0:16:35.500
<v Speaker 1>to be sure. Uh, for now, we'll leave it here. Uh,

0:16:35.580 --> 0:16:40.059
<v Speaker 1>it's been a really enlightening conversation, something that is constantly evolving, uh,

0:16:40.099 --> 0:16:42.979
<v Speaker 1>in the news. So thank you very much for making

0:16:42.979 --> 0:16:45.299
<v Speaker 1>the time for us this morning, Professor. I really appreciate

0:16:45.299 --> 0:16:45.609
<v Speaker 1>it.

0:16:46.010 --> 0:16:47.309
<v Speaker 2>Thanks very much. Bye.

0:16:47.619 --> 0:16:51.140
<v Speaker 1>That's Graeme Gill. He's Professor emeritus for government and international

0:16:51.140 --> 0:16:53.429
<v Speaker 1>relations at the University of Sydney.