1 00:00:03,519 --> 00:00:05,849 Speaker 1: You're listening to AC N A podcast. 2 00:00:08,810 --> 00:00:11,988 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Deep Dive 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,380 Speaker 1: with Chris Peter and myself, Steven. And today we've got 4 00:00:14,390 --> 00:00:16,628 Speaker 1: an issue that I think keeps a lot of people 5 00:00:16,639 --> 00:00:19,149 Speaker 1: on their toes. Yes. Let's get right to it. It's 6 00:00:19,159 --> 00:00:23,420 Speaker 1: the announcement by LT A that up to 20,000 additional 7 00:00:23,430 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: coes will be injected across five categories over the next 8 00:00:27,170 --> 00:00:31,010 Speaker 1: few years starting from February 2025. So this got everyone excited, 9 00:00:31,254 --> 00:00:34,084 Speaker 1: including me. Oh, really? You're thinking of getting a million 10 00:00:34,095 --> 00:00:37,075 Speaker 1: dollar question. Will this mean that ce prices will come down? 11 00:00:37,715 --> 00:00:39,404 Speaker 1: We all want to know. No, but I want to 12 00:00:39,415 --> 00:00:41,625 Speaker 1: ask you something before we start. Do you remember your 13 00:00:41,634 --> 00:00:44,284 Speaker 1: first car? My first car, I've only had one car 14 00:00:44,293 --> 00:00:48,494 Speaker 1: here in Singapore. That old car. Ok. Do you remember 15 00:00:48,505 --> 00:00:50,894 Speaker 1: how much you paid for it? The last ce I 16 00:00:50,904 --> 00:00:53,314 Speaker 1: paid $33,000. Ok. 17 00:00:53,610 --> 00:00:56,380 Speaker 1: Which seem expensive then. But on hindsight now, it seems 18 00:00:56,389 --> 00:00:59,389 Speaker 1: like a good deal, right? It's crazy. Ok. So mine 19 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: was a little Nissan March. We paid about $55,000. I 20 00:01:05,169 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: was seven years left on it. This was about 25 21 00:01:07,809 --> 00:01:10,768 Speaker 1: years ago. Ok. 25 years ago. Yeah. Yeah. So when 22 00:01:10,779 --> 00:01:13,190 Speaker 1: I went back to the category for this car 23 00:01:13,285 --> 00:01:15,864 Speaker 1: and I looked at it if it were brand new, 24 00:01:16,114 --> 00:01:22,184 Speaker 1: $102,900 just for the coe. So I was thinking, I'm 25 00:01:22,194 --> 00:01:25,735 Speaker 1: quite glad I'm old now. Why? Because 25 years ago 26 00:01:25,745 --> 00:01:27,665 Speaker 1: is a long time. Right. Yeah. So, are you glad 27 00:01:27,675 --> 00:01:30,184 Speaker 1: you had a car or you should have kept it renewed? 28 00:01:30,194 --> 00:01:32,864 Speaker 1: The coe maybe. No, we did eventually. But 29 00:01:33,089 --> 00:01:36,709 Speaker 1: I'm just feeling that the price difference is so huge, right? 30 00:01:37,029 --> 00:01:39,050 Speaker 1: I guess it was the wrong fit because the Nissan March, 31 00:01:39,059 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: it just wouldn't march to your right. No, no, no, 32 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,309 Speaker 1: but ok, but a lot has changed. Obviously, the whole 33 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,510 Speaker 1: transport infrastructure has changed, the population has increased. But owning 34 00:01:49,519 --> 00:01:51,610 Speaker 1: a car is definitely not cheap and to be fair, 35 00:01:51,620 --> 00:01:54,269 Speaker 1: the public transport system is very effective. They've tried to 36 00:01:54,279 --> 00:01:57,089 Speaker 1: make it such that we don't really need a car. 37 00:01:57,099 --> 00:01:59,949 Speaker 1: But of course, many of us still desire to have one. 38 00:02:03,330 --> 00:02:05,199 Speaker 1: We're going to get cracking and talk more about that. 39 00:02:05,209 --> 00:02:08,559 Speaker 1: We have two great guests with us today. There's everyone's 40 00:02:08,570 --> 00:02:13,910 Speaker 1: favorite transport economist Walter Tira from Singapore, University of Social Sciences. Hey, 41 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,538 Speaker 1: great to be here. And Arthur Wong, managing director of 42 00:02:16,550 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: AC M Automobiles. Hi, it's good to be here too. 43 00:02:18,869 --> 00:02:21,869 Speaker 1: Let me start with this fresh injection of 20,000. Now, 44 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: the wording seems quite wide. 45 00:02:24,570 --> 00:02:28,660 Speaker 1: It says up to 20 K, no details on which 46 00:02:28,669 --> 00:02:32,979 Speaker 1: categories over the next few years. Water, why is that? 47 00:02:32,990 --> 00:02:34,580 Speaker 1: Why is it so wide? 48 00:02:34,589 --> 00:02:36,389 Speaker 2: I'm going to take a step back and look at 49 00:02:36,399 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 2: what's the purpose of this 20,000 injection? What policy problem 50 00:02:39,970 --> 00:02:42,770 Speaker 2: is it solving the problem that LTA have been dealing 51 00:02:42,779 --> 00:02:45,369 Speaker 2: with over the last couple of years is that we 52 00:02:45,380 --> 00:02:47,899 Speaker 2: are at a low point in the supply. But the 53 00:02:47,910 --> 00:02:50,049 Speaker 2: reason why we're in a low point of fee we supply. 54 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,139 Speaker 2: If it, basically, when a fee is issued, it's attached 55 00:02:53,149 --> 00:02:53,859 Speaker 2: to a car and 56 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,258 Speaker 2: people tend to keep their cars for the entirety of 57 00:02:56,270 --> 00:02:59,258 Speaker 2: the 10 year, the period. So what this means is 58 00:02:59,270 --> 00:03:02,020 Speaker 2: if you have a given year where pretty low number 59 00:03:02,029 --> 00:03:05,369 Speaker 2: of C gets issued, the same low number gets perpetuated 60 00:03:05,380 --> 00:03:07,250 Speaker 2: 10 years down the road and so on and so forth. 61 00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:10,410 Speaker 2: So what happens in Singapore is towards the end of 62 00:03:10,419 --> 00:03:13,580 Speaker 2: the decade, you have a much larger than average number 63 00:03:13,589 --> 00:03:16,059 Speaker 2: of series issued in the early part of the decade, 64 00:03:16,070 --> 00:03:19,220 Speaker 2: you have a very low number of series issue. That's 65 00:03:19,229 --> 00:03:21,279 Speaker 2: the problem that LTA has been dealing with for the 66 00:03:21,288 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 2: last couple of years. We are in the low part 67 00:03:22,970 --> 00:03:23,258 Speaker 2: of it. 68 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,490 Speaker 2: And the problem is there are no good solutions to 69 00:03:26,500 --> 00:03:29,429 Speaker 2: breaking out of this cycle. So the solution they've already 70 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,989 Speaker 2: tried in the last couple of months has been this 71 00:03:32,038 --> 00:03:35,350 Speaker 2: idea of cut and fill. They take coe quota belonging 72 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,289 Speaker 2: to cars which are guaranteed to get scrapped over the 73 00:03:37,300 --> 00:03:39,559 Speaker 2: next few years because they are on the five year 74 00:03:39,570 --> 00:03:43,220 Speaker 2: non renewable standard scheme. And so they've been taking those 75 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,580 Speaker 2: coe and bringing it forward, but evidently they must have 76 00:03:46,589 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 2: concluded this isn't aggressive enough. And so I think that's 77 00:03:50,130 --> 00:03:52,789 Speaker 2: where part of the idea behind this additional 20 78 00:03:52,904 --> 00:03:56,533 Speaker 2: 1000 comes in. It is a pool of core which 79 00:03:56,544 --> 00:04:00,393 Speaker 2: could be used to, in my view, perhaps move faster 80 00:04:00,404 --> 00:04:02,253 Speaker 2: in terms of the filling, right? Because cut and fill 81 00:04:02,264 --> 00:04:04,194 Speaker 2: is very limited, but you can move a bit faster 82 00:04:04,203 --> 00:04:08,333 Speaker 2: of this fill more in 2025 2026 when you actually 83 00:04:08,343 --> 00:04:10,533 Speaker 2: need more of the impact to be and balance out 84 00:04:10,544 --> 00:04:13,934 Speaker 2: the supply over the years. So that's one the other 85 00:04:13,944 --> 00:04:17,894 Speaker 2: thing to consider is can we actually have a larger 86 00:04:17,903 --> 00:04:22,092 Speaker 2: number of vehicles in Singapore? Can we manage that? And historic, 87 00:04:22,458 --> 00:04:24,377 Speaker 2: that would have been a very dangerous thing to do 88 00:04:24,528 --> 00:04:27,528 Speaker 2: because we didn't have the tools to manage surges of 89 00:04:27,537 --> 00:04:30,207 Speaker 2: congestion very well. We had the ERP system but it 90 00:04:30,217 --> 00:04:32,768 Speaker 2: was very inflexible, right? You only have those gantries in 91 00:04:32,778 --> 00:04:36,726 Speaker 2: the town area, some of the expressways, but with ERP two, 92 00:04:36,738 --> 00:04:38,537 Speaker 2: which is now being rolled out to all of the 93 00:04:38,548 --> 00:04:42,247 Speaker 2: vehicles we will have when it's implemented fully a much 94 00:04:42,257 --> 00:04:45,048 Speaker 2: more flexible means of dealing with congestion, hot spots. And 95 00:04:45,058 --> 00:04:48,166 Speaker 2: I think that gives the planner some confidence that if 96 00:04:48,178 --> 00:04:50,738 Speaker 2: you can expand the overall number of vehicles, you will 97 00:04:50,747 --> 00:04:51,388 Speaker 2: not destroy 98 00:04:51,712 --> 00:04:53,582 Speaker 2: movement of cars and so on in Singapore. 99 00:04:53,592 --> 00:04:56,351 Speaker 1: Ok. So Walter, I'm going to be your b average student. Ok. 100 00:04:56,361 --> 00:04:59,101 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna ask you this question. LTA has also 101 00:04:59,111 --> 00:05:02,312 Speaker 1: said that there will be no change to Singapore's zero 102 00:05:02,321 --> 00:05:07,082 Speaker 1: vehicle growth rate for cars and vehicles until 31st, January 2028. 103 00:05:07,462 --> 00:05:11,282 Speaker 1: And can you explain the no change versus the increase 104 00:05:11,291 --> 00:05:13,842 Speaker 1: to 2%? Both of it sounds a little bit confusing 105 00:05:13,851 --> 00:05:14,381 Speaker 1: to me. 106 00:05:14,411 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 2: I would say in practical terms, they are obviously increasing 107 00:05:18,212 --> 00:05:20,522 Speaker 2: the number of vehicles that will be on the road in, 108 00:05:21,205 --> 00:05:23,996 Speaker 2: but they are not increasing it by means of the 109 00:05:24,005 --> 00:05:27,555 Speaker 2: vehicle growth rate formula. So what's the difference? The difference 110 00:05:27,565 --> 00:05:30,424 Speaker 2: is that the way that LTA has been using the 111 00:05:30,436 --> 00:05:34,226 Speaker 2: vehicle growth rate formula is that it basically adds a 112 00:05:34,246 --> 00:05:38,776 Speaker 2: mechanically determined number of vehicles to the theory quota available 113 00:05:38,786 --> 00:05:41,645 Speaker 2: each period. So for example, if you decided, I want 114 00:05:41,656 --> 00:05:44,114 Speaker 2: to have, let's say a quarter percentage point growth for 115 00:05:44,126 --> 00:05:47,114 Speaker 2: passenger cars, what would happen is over the next couple 116 00:05:47,126 --> 00:05:49,186 Speaker 2: of years, the period of time for which that growth 117 00:05:49,196 --> 00:05:50,036 Speaker 2: rate is determined, 118 00:05:50,350 --> 00:05:54,130 Speaker 2: you would just mechanically add that quarter percent every quarter 119 00:05:54,140 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 2: to the fee. We supply the problem with that, especially 120 00:05:56,928 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: over the next couple of years is that it would 121 00:05:59,209 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 2: end up not adding enough over the next year or two, 122 00:06:02,850 --> 00:06:04,790 Speaker 2: but it would end up ending in my view too 123 00:06:04,799 --> 00:06:07,518 Speaker 2: much towards the end of the decade because towards the 124 00:06:07,529 --> 00:06:09,339 Speaker 2: end of the decade, that's when we have a very 125 00:06:09,350 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: large c supply projected to come on due to most 126 00:06:12,649 --> 00:06:13,899 Speaker 2: of the vehicles in Singapore 127 00:06:14,079 --> 00:06:16,820 Speaker 2: getting around the 10 year mark during that time. So 128 00:06:16,829 --> 00:06:19,769 Speaker 2: the VR is a very blunt tool, but with this 129 00:06:19,779 --> 00:06:22,669 Speaker 2: 20,000 LTA has the flexibility to put it in when 130 00:06:22,678 --> 00:06:25,260 Speaker 2: they want. And I think the objective will be to 131 00:06:25,269 --> 00:06:27,219 Speaker 2: smooth out the sea. We supply a bit better. 132 00:06:27,380 --> 00:06:30,220 Speaker 1: So overall, we are going to see an increase in 133 00:06:30,230 --> 00:06:32,049 Speaker 1: the number of cars being allowed on the 134 00:06:32,059 --> 00:06:32,609 Speaker 1: road. So 135 00:06:32,660 --> 00:06:35,738 Speaker 2: that's the projection because this 20,000 from what we have 136 00:06:35,750 --> 00:06:37,739 Speaker 2: heard so far is not being taken 137 00:06:37,928 --> 00:06:41,618 Speaker 2: from supply in the future period. It's going to increase 138 00:06:41,630 --> 00:06:41,750 Speaker 2: the 139 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:42,279 Speaker 1: overall number 140 00:06:42,738 --> 00:06:46,149 Speaker 1: 20,000 on top of whatever else has been calculated. OK? 141 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: So in Singapore, cars are deregistered, right? And then you 142 00:06:49,369 --> 00:06:52,619 Speaker 1: free up that amount that could be 10,000 whatever. And 143 00:06:52,630 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 1: then there's people who give up their cars, but there's 144 00:06:54,730 --> 00:06:57,349 Speaker 1: population growth too. There are people who want to drive. 145 00:06:57,359 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: So Arthur maybe you can come in. Do you see 146 00:06:59,769 --> 00:07:04,459 Speaker 1: demand for cars still being high? You've been in the 147 00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: business for 11 years now, 148 00:07:06,660 --> 00:07:09,670 Speaker 1: I always feel like there's pent up demand the minute 149 00:07:09,679 --> 00:07:13,149 Speaker 1: something goes down co e especially I feel like the 150 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,220 Speaker 1: showrooms will be packed. Yes, you are correct. Who's interested 151 00:07:16,230 --> 00:07:19,269 Speaker 1: in buying cars now probably most of Singaporeans dreams to 152 00:07:19,279 --> 00:07:23,989 Speaker 1: own a car. Maybe less the younger generation. The public 153 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,350 Speaker 1: transport is pretty good already so they don't need a car. 154 00:07:27,519 --> 00:07:30,549 Speaker 1: But I believe people after their thirties or late twenties, 155 00:07:30,559 --> 00:07:32,820 Speaker 1: they might want to own a car one day and 156 00:07:32,829 --> 00:07:35,410 Speaker 1: those that are in the market because right now there's 157 00:07:35,420 --> 00:07:36,109 Speaker 1: so much things like 158 00:07:36,187 --> 00:07:39,377 Speaker 1: social media and SG car is so easy for you to, 159 00:07:39,386 --> 00:07:42,057 Speaker 1: to browse through during your free time. They also adds 160 00:07:42,066 --> 00:07:44,756 Speaker 1: to your desire to want to own a car because 161 00:07:44,766 --> 00:07:46,867 Speaker 1: in the past like probably 25 years ago when you 162 00:07:46,877 --> 00:07:49,217 Speaker 1: own a Nissan Mar, you probably flip through straights times 163 00:07:49,226 --> 00:07:52,286 Speaker 1: classified and you look through boxes. That's true. Yeah. And you, 164 00:07:52,296 --> 00:07:55,187 Speaker 1: and there are no pictures, nothing to make, you have 165 00:07:55,196 --> 00:07:57,726 Speaker 1: the desire. You can't look at like 20 pictures of 166 00:07:57,736 --> 00:07:59,506 Speaker 1: the same car, different angles and all, 167 00:07:59,773 --> 00:08:02,873 Speaker 1: all the people are hiring pro photographers to take photos 168 00:08:02,884 --> 00:08:05,473 Speaker 1: of the cars putting on car. So all these things 169 00:08:05,484 --> 00:08:08,584 Speaker 1: will also add up to people wanting to own a car. 170 00:08:08,634 --> 00:08:11,553 Speaker 1: So there's always been demand because when you first get married, 171 00:08:11,563 --> 00:08:13,384 Speaker 1: you got to get the home first. But once you've 172 00:08:13,394 --> 00:08:14,954 Speaker 1: kind of paying for the home, then you figure, ok, 173 00:08:14,963 --> 00:08:16,444 Speaker 1: how can I get a bit more comfortable and I 174 00:08:16,454 --> 00:08:20,223 Speaker 1: have Children now? So different needs require different resources. Exactly. 175 00:08:20,234 --> 00:08:23,174 Speaker 1: I mean, I got the car only because we had kids. Right. 176 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,550 Speaker 1: So it just seemed a lot easier to do that. 177 00:08:26,691 --> 00:08:29,381 Speaker 1: But here's the thing, Walter, we wanted to ask you 178 00:08:29,390 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: as well. The last time there was an increase in 179 00:08:32,210 --> 00:08:37,750 Speaker 1: COES was between 97 and 2003, 10,500 Coes were introduced 180 00:08:37,950 --> 00:08:41,580 Speaker 1: when the current, er P system was installed. There's a 181 00:08:41,591 --> 00:08:45,059 Speaker 1: link to the, er P system but we don't quite understand. So, 182 00:08:45,070 --> 00:08:46,861 Speaker 1: so far, LT A has said 183 00:08:47,219 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: that don't worry, even with more cars, the ERP 2.0 184 00:08:51,530 --> 00:08:56,570 Speaker 1: can regulate traffic. Now, I drive only on days when 185 00:08:56,580 --> 00:09:00,599 Speaker 1: we record from my home in Yishun to one north 186 00:09:00,609 --> 00:09:04,229 Speaker 1: and it's a nightmare there. At least three choke points. 187 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:09,429 Speaker 1: How would more cars be better with, er, P 2.0. 188 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,739 Speaker 1: So what's the connection between lots of cars, 189 00:09:13,106 --> 00:09:15,886 Speaker 1: traffic congestion and the ERP 2.0 which is supposed to 190 00:09:15,896 --> 00:09:16,006 Speaker 1: be 191 00:09:16,017 --> 00:09:17,127 Speaker 1: better to be clear. 192 00:09:17,136 --> 00:09:20,807 Speaker 2: Owning a car doesn't necessarily create a social issue or 193 00:09:20,817 --> 00:09:22,747 Speaker 2: a problem. I mean, you can talk about the environment 194 00:09:22,756 --> 00:09:25,367 Speaker 2: and so on, but as far as getting in other 195 00:09:25,377 --> 00:09:28,096 Speaker 2: people's way on the road, it's not ownership that matters. 196 00:09:28,106 --> 00:09:31,067 Speaker 2: It is using your car and in particular, it's choosing 197 00:09:31,077 --> 00:09:33,086 Speaker 2: to drive your car to the same place at the 198 00:09:33,096 --> 00:09:35,757 Speaker 2: same time with other people, then you have a problem 199 00:09:35,947 --> 00:09:38,877 Speaker 2: and when you look at a very dense city, like 200 00:09:39,583 --> 00:09:42,064 Speaker 2: what are your options? Right, your options are, you can 201 00:09:42,073 --> 00:09:44,484 Speaker 2: regulate the number of cars. We already do that. You 202 00:09:44,494 --> 00:09:47,143 Speaker 2: can build more roads, but the more roads you build, 203 00:09:47,153 --> 00:09:50,504 Speaker 2: the less livability there is for everybody, especially people who 204 00:09:50,513 --> 00:09:53,554 Speaker 2: don't drive or you can figure out some way of 205 00:09:53,564 --> 00:09:56,823 Speaker 2: regulating when people actually use the cars. And that is 206 00:09:56,833 --> 00:09:59,213 Speaker 2: where ERP comes in. I mean, it's not just ERP, 207 00:09:59,223 --> 00:10:02,132 Speaker 2: if you go all the way back, we started doing this, 208 00:10:02,143 --> 00:10:04,903 Speaker 2: you know, way back with the area life scheme. The, 209 00:10:05,059 --> 00:10:08,010 Speaker 2: the idea is you can have more people in Singapore 210 00:10:08,020 --> 00:10:11,431 Speaker 2: owning cars if you have a better way of managing 211 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,971 Speaker 2: how and when they actually use their cars and that 212 00:10:13,981 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: is where, er, P two comes in 213 00:10:15,731 --> 00:10:16,140 Speaker 1: just 214 00:10:16,151 --> 00:10:18,140 Speaker 1: to break it down a little bit more with the 215 00:10:18,291 --> 00:10:21,940 Speaker 1: P 2.0. It might tell me even before I set off, hey, look, 216 00:10:21,950 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: there's a huge congestion here. If you drive past this, 217 00:10:25,091 --> 00:10:28,510 Speaker 1: you're gonna pay like $5. So that might encourage the 218 00:10:28,551 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: whole toll system is meant to sort of influence you 219 00:10:31,038 --> 00:10:33,777 Speaker 1: to change your behavior so that you don't drive during 220 00:10:33,788 --> 00:10:35,528 Speaker 1: peak period, you drive at a different time, you go 221 00:10:35,538 --> 00:10:36,807 Speaker 1: to work an hour later, 222 00:10:37,437 --> 00:10:37,697 Speaker 1: possible. 223 00:10:37,708 --> 00:10:40,617 Speaker 2: It is possible, but it's only possible if you have 224 00:10:40,627 --> 00:10:43,377 Speaker 2: some margin of drivers who are willing to change because 225 00:10:43,388 --> 00:10:45,686 Speaker 2: not everybody can change. Right. If you have some high 226 00:10:45,697 --> 00:10:48,137 Speaker 2: value business meeting in town, you're not going to change. 227 00:10:48,288 --> 00:10:52,377 Speaker 2: But it's about getting those incremental drivers who could switch 228 00:10:52,388 --> 00:10:54,947 Speaker 2: maybe the breakfast meeting or something to a lunch meeting. 229 00:10:54,958 --> 00:10:56,927 Speaker 2: Instead those guys changing and 230 00:10:57,015 --> 00:10:58,854 Speaker 2: then you get a reduction in traffic loading 231 00:10:58,864 --> 00:11:01,155 Speaker 1: as a road user. If I have to go home 232 00:11:01,164 --> 00:11:04,145 Speaker 1: from CT, from, let's say town back to Ang Mo Kio, 233 00:11:04,205 --> 00:11:07,375 Speaker 1: I'll be hit by a three or $4 Gentry. So 234 00:11:07,385 --> 00:11:09,924 Speaker 1: I will tell myself I'll probably go somewhere and relax, 235 00:11:09,934 --> 00:11:12,664 Speaker 1: have coffee and probably go back later or maybe find 236 00:11:12,674 --> 00:11:15,054 Speaker 1: something to do in town or what not. So this 237 00:11:15,065 --> 00:11:17,094 Speaker 1: also helps the behavior. But if I say you're in 238 00:11:17,104 --> 00:11:19,054 Speaker 1: a hurry. Yeah, of course, you have to go back. 239 00:11:19,065 --> 00:11:22,275 Speaker 1: I guess the whole idea is to nudge our behaviors. Right. Yeah, 240 00:11:22,284 --> 00:11:22,944 Speaker 1: I mean, same thing when 241 00:11:22,992 --> 00:11:24,942 Speaker 1: my kids say come and pick me at 630. I'm like, 242 00:11:24,981 --> 00:11:27,210 Speaker 1: that's the worst time. I'll spend more time sitting on 243 00:11:27,221 --> 00:11:29,442 Speaker 1: the road than getting them back. So I said you 244 00:11:29,452 --> 00:11:32,330 Speaker 1: just go and stay on for another hour and then 245 00:11:32,341 --> 00:11:34,812 Speaker 1: I'll come get you later. You know, it's always strikes me, 246 00:11:34,822 --> 00:11:38,420 Speaker 1: especially on CTE, during peak hours is the highest, right? 247 00:11:38,432 --> 00:11:41,411 Speaker 1: Something like 67 $8 or whatever. I'm not sure. Now 248 00:11:41,421 --> 00:11:45,791 Speaker 1: in the morning, in the morning, 7 $78. Right. But 249 00:11:45,802 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: it's so crowded. So maybe when it gets to $10 250 00:11:48,091 --> 00:11:48,881 Speaker 1: it won't be so crowded. 251 00:11:49,450 --> 00:11:51,510 Speaker 1: But the point is, it's just meant to be a 252 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,109 Speaker 1: better system. Is that what I 253 00:11:53,119 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: say? 254 00:11:53,599 --> 00:11:56,270 Speaker 2: So, you know, thinking about the CTA example, yes, it's 255 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:57,989 Speaker 2: right now, you know, it costs quite a lot to 256 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,020 Speaker 2: go into the T in the morning. But when you 257 00:12:00,030 --> 00:12:03,179 Speaker 2: look at the average travel speed on the CT, it's 258 00:12:03,190 --> 00:12:06,260 Speaker 2: still maintained within the target band that LT have for, 259 00:12:06,270 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 2: you know, kind of maximizing throughput. And 260 00:12:08,479 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 2: I don't think you would actually be getting that kind 261 00:12:11,090 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: of speed on the CT during rush hour. If we 262 00:12:13,650 --> 00:12:16,010 Speaker 2: had zero pricing at all on it, you would have 263 00:12:16,210 --> 00:12:18,669 Speaker 2: something much closer to KL or something like that where? Yeah, 264 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,309 Speaker 2: I mean, you can go on your way during rush hour. 265 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,979 Speaker 2: There's no extra toll beyond what they usually charge, but 266 00:12:23,989 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 2: it's so painful, right? So, so it's a bit of 267 00:12:26,210 --> 00:12:26,219 Speaker 2: a 268 00:12:26,229 --> 00:12:26,729 Speaker 2: difference. 269 00:12:26,950 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: Let's get to prices. Do you guys think that once 270 00:12:29,770 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: the LTA releases these extra co e 271 00:12:33,030 --> 00:12:36,359 Speaker 1: it will have an impact on prices. Everyone's demur on that, 272 00:12:37,190 --> 00:12:39,159 Speaker 1: but they're not releasing it all at once. We don't 273 00:12:39,349 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: know which 274 00:12:40,969 --> 00:12:41,700 Speaker 1: category. 275 00:12:41,710 --> 00:12:44,510 Speaker 2: If you look at what Lt's objective is in this, 276 00:12:44,609 --> 00:12:47,479 Speaker 2: the objective is not to target a certain price level, 277 00:12:47,489 --> 00:12:50,849 Speaker 2: their objective. If they try to stabilize the ce supply, 278 00:12:50,859 --> 00:12:53,309 Speaker 2: to try to undo some of this boom and bust 279 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,439 Speaker 2: cycle we have because that is not very good for 280 00:12:56,450 --> 00:12:59,689 Speaker 2: the economy to have this extreme swing and the price 281 00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:02,549 Speaker 2: and the E supply. It's because with all these swings 282 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:02,809 Speaker 2: in price 283 00:13:02,987 --> 00:13:05,927 Speaker 2: thing, you induce a lot of behavior from car buyers, 284 00:13:05,937 --> 00:13:08,038 Speaker 2: businesses and so on to try to time the market 285 00:13:08,047 --> 00:13:10,427 Speaker 2: to try to second guess what's going to happen. And, 286 00:13:10,437 --> 00:13:12,328 Speaker 2: you know, I don't think that makes a lot of sense. 287 00:13:12,348 --> 00:13:16,018 Speaker 2: So their objective is to stabilize supply. But if they 288 00:13:16,028 --> 00:13:18,588 Speaker 2: wanted to do that, my opinion would be, it would 289 00:13:18,598 --> 00:13:21,968 Speaker 2: be more sensible for them to target the earlier part 290 00:13:21,977 --> 00:13:25,737 Speaker 2: of 2025 2026 to inject most of the supply because 291 00:13:25,788 --> 00:13:29,117 Speaker 2: that is when stabilization makes a big difference. But end 292 00:13:29,127 --> 00:13:31,598 Speaker 2: of the decade, you have very large supply coming in. 293 00:13:31,718 --> 00:13:32,718 Speaker 2: You would be actually 294 00:13:32,796 --> 00:13:35,765 Speaker 2: making this boomba cycle worse if you added it end 295 00:13:35,776 --> 00:13:38,814 Speaker 2: of the decade. So my projection is earlier rather, 296 00:13:38,825 --> 00:13:40,986 Speaker 1: in other words, putting it in the years when there 297 00:13:40,995 --> 00:13:41,765 Speaker 1: is far 298 00:13:41,776 --> 00:13:42,966 Speaker 1: less supply supply. 299 00:13:42,976 --> 00:13:44,265 Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah. And 300 00:13:44,315 --> 00:13:44,656 Speaker 1: then 301 00:13:44,666 --> 00:13:48,625 Speaker 2: for the split between categories, my bet would be distributed 302 00:13:48,635 --> 00:13:51,955 Speaker 2: similarly to the current mix of vehicles in Singapore, which 303 00:13:51,966 --> 00:13:54,416 Speaker 2: means that a lot of it would be category a, 304 00:13:54,466 --> 00:13:55,786 Speaker 2: you know, passenger cars. 305 00:13:55,796 --> 00:13:59,195 Speaker 1: Actually, when you say stabilize, is there any indication of 306 00:13:59,205 --> 00:14:02,575 Speaker 1: what kind of pricing would be considered stable? Because iron 307 00:14:02,963 --> 00:14:06,184 Speaker 1: the 100,000 mark is something people have kind of almost 308 00:14:06,193 --> 00:14:08,583 Speaker 1: gotten used to in a strange way. And one could 309 00:14:08,593 --> 00:14:12,343 Speaker 1: say that's kind of stable in a crazy way. I thought, 310 00:14:12,354 --> 00:14:14,943 Speaker 1: what do you think? Would it bring down prices as 311 00:14:14,953 --> 00:14:18,033 Speaker 1: a car enthusiast? I hope it will come down. But 312 00:14:18,044 --> 00:14:20,263 Speaker 1: it is anybody's guess even, I mean, in this business 313 00:14:20,273 --> 00:14:24,754 Speaker 1: for 11 years, I have no idea how this thing works. Yes, 314 00:14:24,763 --> 00:14:27,424 Speaker 1: I hope it comes down. We are always guessing among 315 00:14:27,434 --> 00:14:29,614 Speaker 1: our people in a trade that next week will go up. 316 00:14:29,713 --> 00:14:32,064 Speaker 1: I know nobody buying cars should come down and it 317 00:14:32,073 --> 00:14:32,513 Speaker 1: goes up. 318 00:14:32,591 --> 00:14:34,901 Speaker 1: Then there was this period all of a sudden it 319 00:14:34,911 --> 00:14:38,252 Speaker 1: dropped down to 85,000. So all of a sudden, how 320 00:14:38,262 --> 00:14:39,952 Speaker 1: did that happen? And you went up again? And then 321 00:14:39,961 --> 00:14:42,671 Speaker 1: I asked everybody, do you suddenly like bit lesser or what? Not? 322 00:14:42,682 --> 00:14:45,132 Speaker 1: Everybody did the same thing. We just did. The drill. 323 00:14:45,192 --> 00:14:47,382 Speaker 1: Is anybody no way to really predict it. What would 324 00:14:47,392 --> 00:14:49,892 Speaker 1: be considered in this day and age now? Fair price 325 00:14:49,901 --> 00:14:52,021 Speaker 1: where people will say, ok. Yeah, that makes sense. We 326 00:14:52,031 --> 00:14:55,382 Speaker 1: had a good run during the 2018 and 2019 period. 327 00:14:55,392 --> 00:14:59,411 Speaker 1: All the way up to 20206. No, 30,000. Those were 328 00:14:59,421 --> 00:15:02,411 Speaker 1: the best days. But it's bad because everybody 329 00:15:02,489 --> 00:15:05,570 Speaker 1: tends to renew their cars. It 30,000, it makes sense 330 00:15:05,580 --> 00:15:08,609 Speaker 1: to renew. Right. So, there's no new coe going back 331 00:15:08,619 --> 00:15:11,929 Speaker 1: to the market. So, yeah, right now it's 100,000 or 332 00:15:11,940 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: the less flashy, less exotic marks, they will say, ah, 333 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,750 Speaker 1: I just, I just get a new car whereas those 334 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,479 Speaker 1: who are like sports cars they will renew. This is 335 00:15:19,489 --> 00:15:21,750 Speaker 1: a trend that we are seeing right now. Lesser of 336 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,820 Speaker 1: the more bread and butter cars renewing their coe. 337 00:15:24,219 --> 00:15:24,229 Speaker 2: I 338 00:15:24,719 --> 00:15:26,710 Speaker 2: will say that on a week to week basis, you 339 00:15:26,719 --> 00:15:30,549 Speaker 2: can't really predict theory prices. But on a long term basis, 340 00:15:30,559 --> 00:15:32,270 Speaker 2: when you look at the theory cycle, 341 00:15:32,388 --> 00:15:35,288 Speaker 2: it's very consistent that you have lower prices when you've 342 00:15:35,297 --> 00:15:37,697 Speaker 2: got better than average supply, that means end of the 343 00:15:37,708 --> 00:15:40,747 Speaker 2: decade and you have much higher than average prices when 344 00:15:40,757 --> 00:15:42,918 Speaker 2: you are going through very low supply, like right now 345 00:15:42,927 --> 00:15:44,857 Speaker 2: in last couple of years. So that is the long 346 00:15:44,867 --> 00:15:47,908 Speaker 2: term cycle. And actually that is why it is important 347 00:15:48,057 --> 00:15:51,357 Speaker 2: for the policy maker LTA to try to even out 348 00:15:51,367 --> 00:15:54,107 Speaker 2: the cycle because this fluctuation isn't great for 349 00:15:54,117 --> 00:15:54,648 Speaker 2: business. 350 00:15:54,658 --> 00:15:57,247 Speaker 1: So in a sense, we're only in this shortage of 351 00:15:57,257 --> 00:16:01,297 Speaker 1: supply for these few years, it is a transition according 352 00:16:01,307 --> 00:16:02,168 Speaker 1: to what you're saying, right? 353 00:16:02,510 --> 00:16:05,979 Speaker 1: So why not just put in numbers each year to 354 00:16:05,989 --> 00:16:07,609 Speaker 1: top it up a little bit and then kind of 355 00:16:07,619 --> 00:16:08,489 Speaker 1: see how it goes 356 00:16:08,729 --> 00:16:12,619 Speaker 2: in part the whole 20,000 injection. That's kind of the idea, right? 357 00:16:12,630 --> 00:16:16,260 Speaker 2: It is to stabilize the low supply years and hopefully 358 00:16:16,270 --> 00:16:18,419 Speaker 2: not to add fuel to the fire in years where 359 00:16:18,429 --> 00:16:21,099 Speaker 2: you got a lot of extra supply. What's really going 360 00:16:21,109 --> 00:16:24,510 Speaker 2: to be interesting is what will happen next decade because 361 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,099 Speaker 2: in the next decade, we will go back down to 362 00:16:27,109 --> 00:16:27,380 Speaker 2: a low 363 00:16:27,455 --> 00:16:30,395 Speaker 2: supply situation again, again, just based on the low number 364 00:16:30,406 --> 00:16:32,585 Speaker 2: of new cars that were registered over the last couple 365 00:16:32,596 --> 00:16:34,596 Speaker 2: of years. And I think that's when we have to 366 00:16:34,606 --> 00:16:38,395 Speaker 2: see whether LTA is willing to experiment with much more 367 00:16:38,406 --> 00:16:42,476 Speaker 2: aggressive shoring up the supply and maybe utilizing ERP two 368 00:16:42,486 --> 00:16:44,445 Speaker 2: and so on to allow that to happen. 369 00:16:44,455 --> 00:16:45,926 Speaker 1: So Walter, then I got to ask you actually, when 370 00:16:45,935 --> 00:16:47,255 Speaker 1: you talk about the end of the decade, what year 371 00:16:47,265 --> 00:16:48,776 Speaker 1: are we talking about for higher supply, 372 00:16:48,786 --> 00:16:49,176 Speaker 2: you mean? Yeah, 373 00:16:49,185 --> 00:16:51,565 Speaker 1: which is the year. Now, when you're saying we'll have 374 00:16:51,575 --> 00:16:52,345 Speaker 1: a larger supply 375 00:16:52,541 --> 00:16:56,851 Speaker 2: probably like 2027 2829 around that period. Basically, it just 376 00:16:56,861 --> 00:16:59,921 Speaker 2: ramped up gradually. It's not rocket science to do the prediction. 377 00:16:59,932 --> 00:17:02,252 Speaker 2: All you have to do is look at the LTA 378 00:17:02,262 --> 00:17:06,171 Speaker 2: data and how many new cars were issued 10 years ago. 379 00:17:06,342 --> 00:17:08,452 Speaker 2: And most people hang on to it for over 10 years. 380 00:17:08,462 --> 00:17:09,241 Speaker 2: So that's how you 381 00:17:09,251 --> 00:17:11,661 Speaker 1: predicted. That's the period of time where they sell a 382 00:17:11,671 --> 00:17:15,352 Speaker 1: lot of new cars as well. 07 to nine were 383 00:17:15,362 --> 00:17:17,212 Speaker 1: the golden days as well. It was low co E 384 00:17:17,796 --> 00:17:21,666 Speaker 1: so things were moving then after that, you reach 2010, 385 00:17:21,677 --> 00:17:25,516 Speaker 1: it spiked up to 137,000 and it came down. I'm 386 00:17:25,727 --> 00:17:29,227 Speaker 1: kind of glad to hear that because my coe 2029, 387 00:17:29,817 --> 00:17:33,487 Speaker 1: I'll be in the sweet spot, so to speak. So 388 00:17:33,496 --> 00:17:36,026 Speaker 1: it's just a matter of timing, it looks like right. 389 00:17:36,337 --> 00:17:40,057 Speaker 1: I demand and supply, isn't it? Exactly? Ok. So another 390 00:17:40,067 --> 00:17:42,177 Speaker 1: thing that I thought that we could clarify 391 00:17:42,384 --> 00:17:45,104 Speaker 1: was the role of the private hire vehicles in the 392 00:17:45,114 --> 00:17:47,534 Speaker 1: CO E space. Now, the government has said that they 393 00:17:47,542 --> 00:17:50,913 Speaker 1: are unlikely to be driving up the prices because of 394 00:17:50,923 --> 00:17:53,603 Speaker 1: a lower share of CO es but others say that 395 00:17:53,614 --> 00:17:57,443 Speaker 1: these guys have a role to play in the prices. Now, 396 00:17:57,624 --> 00:18:01,154 Speaker 1: Minister Chi Hong Ta has floated the possibility of a 397 00:18:01,163 --> 00:18:04,514 Speaker 1: separate category just for them. Do you think that will 398 00:18:04,523 --> 00:18:06,624 Speaker 1: make a difference to prices? I think that will make 399 00:18:06,634 --> 00:18:09,473 Speaker 1: a difference. Definitely, I don't have the exact numbers of 400 00:18:09,484 --> 00:18:11,364 Speaker 1: how many people are bidding for private hire, 401 00:18:11,709 --> 00:18:14,829 Speaker 1: but it's adding into what the normal consumers in the 402 00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:15,649 Speaker 1: same category. 403 00:18:15,930 --> 00:18:18,630 Speaker 1: So I think if there's a separate category, probably it 404 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:19,770 Speaker 1: can create a 405 00:18:19,780 --> 00:18:20,688 Speaker 1: better environment. 406 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 2: I think a lot of the unhappiness about private hire 407 00:18:23,449 --> 00:18:26,500 Speaker 2: vehicles eating in the c that's going to be worse 408 00:18:26,510 --> 00:18:28,790 Speaker 2: when you have very low c supply like last couple 409 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,909 Speaker 2: of years. And of course, we all know that because 410 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 2: they're running a business and because they intend to utilize 411 00:18:33,449 --> 00:18:35,629 Speaker 2: the heck out of the car as long as they 412 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,510 Speaker 2: bet they can make it back in rentals, they'll be 413 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,170 Speaker 2: willing to bid for it unlike ordinary consumers like us. 414 00:18:40,349 --> 00:18:43,790 Speaker 2: But this problem will also go away when they hire 415 00:18:43,900 --> 00:18:47,629 Speaker 2: supply because it's not as if the number of vehicles 416 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,469 Speaker 2: that you want in your fleet and so on to 417 00:18:49,479 --> 00:18:52,170 Speaker 2: a private hire goes up magically in years where there's 418 00:18:52,180 --> 00:18:54,099 Speaker 2: larger sue supply, right? I think it's going to be 419 00:18:54,109 --> 00:18:56,170 Speaker 2: more or less fixed depending on when you want to 420 00:18:56,180 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 2: renew your fleet. So I predict much less public concern 421 00:19:00,010 --> 00:19:03,510 Speaker 2: about it in years with higher coe numbers available. And 422 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,930 Speaker 2: I think this pressure for a separate category might also 423 00:19:05,939 --> 00:19:09,810 Speaker 2: go away. I would also add that there is one complication. 424 00:19:09,819 --> 00:19:11,729 Speaker 2: I think with having a special category for PH 425 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,179 Speaker 2: and that is that today, we allow pvs to be 426 00:19:15,189 --> 00:19:19,290 Speaker 2: converted from private cars and vice versa, pretty much at will, right. 427 00:19:19,339 --> 00:19:21,448 Speaker 2: If you wanted to have a special category, you would 428 00:19:21,459 --> 00:19:24,390 Speaker 2: actually have to stop this kind of conversion. So that 429 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,169 Speaker 2: would be the additional complication 430 00:19:27,239 --> 00:19:28,069 Speaker 1: is only a taxi 431 00:19:28,959 --> 00:19:31,150 Speaker 1: because a lot of people, as we know, they use 432 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,829 Speaker 1: their private hire car for their own because some of 433 00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 1: them are doing part time. Right. It's the same as 434 00:19:35,890 --> 00:19:38,089 Speaker 1: buying a car. You're paying installment. I met up with 435 00:19:38,099 --> 00:19:39,729 Speaker 1: a driver, say, who are you driving? 436 00:19:40,079 --> 00:19:42,510 Speaker 1: No, I need a car. So I rent like 70 437 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,829 Speaker 1: bucks a day. I fetch my kids to school. Then 438 00:19:44,839 --> 00:19:46,130 Speaker 1: when I have free time, I just pick up some 439 00:19:46,140 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: customers to make back the money. So that's how they 440 00:19:48,369 --> 00:19:50,420 Speaker 1: are seeing this as a way to own a car 441 00:19:50,430 --> 00:19:53,180 Speaker 1: as well, but also to make money. Right. So that's 442 00:19:53,189 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: where the complication comes in because if they have to 443 00:19:55,650 --> 00:19:58,780 Speaker 1: be in a separate category, then they have to choose. Right. Yes. 444 00:19:58,790 --> 00:20:01,010 Speaker 1: And it's true. I think it's only because as a 445 00:20:01,020 --> 00:20:02,979 Speaker 1: regular person, you feel like you can't get a car. 446 00:20:02,989 --> 00:20:05,250 Speaker 1: So we kind of almost need to blame someone and say, yeah, 447 00:20:05,270 --> 00:20:07,770 Speaker 1: you know, these private hire guys, the rental companies are 448 00:20:07,780 --> 00:20:08,510 Speaker 1: getting so many, 449 00:20:08,859 --> 00:20:12,079 Speaker 1: but the whole priority scheme is not something entirely new. 450 00:20:12,089 --> 00:20:15,689 Speaker 1: There have been arguments that maybe families should have a priority. 451 00:20:15,699 --> 00:20:17,738 Speaker 1: Maybe once you have three or more kids, you get 452 00:20:17,750 --> 00:20:20,630 Speaker 1: preference to buy ce at a certain price, you know. Yeah, 453 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,429 Speaker 1: I mean, and we do want to increase our birth 454 00:20:23,439 --> 00:20:25,699 Speaker 1: rates in Singapore. So, why not? Right. What do you 455 00:20:25,709 --> 00:20:26,660 Speaker 1: say to that? Walter? 456 00:20:27,530 --> 00:20:29,449 Speaker 2: Yeah. Ok. So this whole idea that we need to 457 00:20:29,459 --> 00:20:32,290 Speaker 2: climb down the things like people owning multiple cars or 458 00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:36,849 Speaker 2: alternatively giving families additional eligibility or discounts or whatever it's 459 00:20:36,859 --> 00:20:38,989 Speaker 2: been going around for a long time as well. I 460 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,609 Speaker 2: can see the appeal of these kinds of ideas. Right. 461 00:20:41,619 --> 00:20:44,489 Speaker 2: I think the problem with these ideas is not whether 462 00:20:44,500 --> 00:20:47,209 Speaker 2: they are appealing or not. The problem is actually the 463 00:20:47,439 --> 00:20:51,209 Speaker 2: implementation and the practicality of enforcement because if you talk 464 00:20:51,219 --> 00:20:53,069 Speaker 2: about one of the ideas, a lot of people have said, oh, 465 00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 2: you know, all these rich, 466 00:20:54,253 --> 00:20:56,973 Speaker 2: I shouldn't be allowed to have like five cars and 467 00:20:56,983 --> 00:20:59,703 Speaker 2: clogging up, you know, five cos, then the problem of 468 00:20:59,713 --> 00:21:01,912 Speaker 2: course is that, well, all these rich people have got 469 00:21:01,922 --> 00:21:04,542 Speaker 2: friends and family. So what makes you think they wouldn't 470 00:21:04,552 --> 00:21:07,061 Speaker 2: just get around it by having their friends, family kids. 471 00:21:07,071 --> 00:21:09,432 Speaker 2: And so just the one car under the name each? Right. 472 00:21:09,583 --> 00:21:12,612 Speaker 2: So that's one for the families. There's a similar problem 473 00:21:12,623 --> 00:21:15,592 Speaker 2: which is that if you put it to, for example, 474 00:21:15,603 --> 00:21:17,993 Speaker 2: let's say a large family, right? What would you rather have, 475 00:21:18,003 --> 00:21:20,213 Speaker 2: would you rather have this car we allow you to 476 00:21:20,223 --> 00:21:20,922 Speaker 2: buy with a 477 00:21:21,036 --> 00:21:24,196 Speaker 2: special discount? Or would you rather turn around and sell 478 00:21:24,205 --> 00:21:26,994 Speaker 2: that car or let somebody else rent that car from 479 00:21:27,005 --> 00:21:30,105 Speaker 2: you and then profit from the difference? Well, some families say, oh, 480 00:21:30,115 --> 00:21:32,676 Speaker 2: I'd rather have the extra money and then, then that becomes, 481 00:21:32,686 --> 00:21:35,555 Speaker 2: are you going to start penalizing the family? Because you 482 00:21:35,566 --> 00:21:37,676 Speaker 2: caught them renting out the car they were allowed to 483 00:21:37,686 --> 00:21:40,205 Speaker 2: buy at the lower price. I mean, implementation is kind 484 00:21:40,215 --> 00:21:41,036 Speaker 2: of tricky here. Yeah, 485 00:21:41,046 --> 00:21:44,086 Speaker 1: it's not like housing, right? For housing, it's like everybody 486 00:21:44,095 --> 00:21:46,906 Speaker 1: must have a house so that subsidies can kick in 487 00:21:46,916 --> 00:21:47,686 Speaker 1: but car 488 00:21:48,140 --> 00:21:50,130 Speaker 1: you could get by. But I thought it was kind 489 00:21:50,140 --> 00:21:52,079 Speaker 1: of a nice idea because we do want to increase 490 00:21:52,089 --> 00:21:54,180 Speaker 1: our population. So every time you get 1/4 kid or 491 00:21:54,189 --> 00:21:56,930 Speaker 1: a third kid, here's your ce at 20,000. You know, 492 00:21:56,939 --> 00:22:01,770 Speaker 1: a little Sun March. Which equivalent if I am in 493 00:22:01,780 --> 00:22:05,030 Speaker 1: need of a car today, whether I'm a young person. 494 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,430 Speaker 1: What's my best, most prudent option? Arthur, best, most prudent option. 495 00:22:09,439 --> 00:22:11,419 Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of evs but I feel that 496 00:22:11,430 --> 00:22:13,550 Speaker 1: if you were to get by in Singapore, getting an 497 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,109 Speaker 1: EV is a good idea. 498 00:22:16,250 --> 00:22:18,208 Speaker 1: Why, why, why is it a good idea? Because the 499 00:22:18,219 --> 00:22:21,239 Speaker 1: cost of ownership probably might be a bit lower. Of course, 500 00:22:21,250 --> 00:22:23,319 Speaker 1: you pay higher taxes and whatnot, but you don't need 501 00:22:23,329 --> 00:22:25,968 Speaker 1: to pump petrol or if not another way would be 502 00:22:25,979 --> 00:22:29,729 Speaker 1: to get a petrol hybrid vehicle, which they are very frugal. 503 00:22:29,739 --> 00:22:32,150 Speaker 1: Just check out what are the PH B drivers who 504 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 1: are they driving? Those are the most efficient cars like 505 00:22:35,609 --> 00:22:38,660 Speaker 1: Toyota sa you know, and those petrol hybrid vehicles, which 506 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,510 Speaker 1: a tank of petrol can last you 1000 km, you 507 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: probably do not need to go to the shell 508 00:22:42,989 --> 00:22:45,260 Speaker 1: stations so often it's all about the cost of running 509 00:22:45,270 --> 00:22:51,050 Speaker 1: and the maintenance. So what, what about leasing a car? 510 00:22:51,060 --> 00:22:53,050 Speaker 1: I know a friend. He's got kids but he said 511 00:22:53,060 --> 00:22:54,810 Speaker 1: he's just leasing a car. You pay, I don't know, 512 00:22:54,819 --> 00:22:57,869 Speaker 1: 2000 odd a month for a car. Is that a 513 00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,869 Speaker 1: good way to go? There are some people who probably 514 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,089 Speaker 1: say for short term usage and they are not willing 515 00:23:02,099 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: to fork out the high down payment of 30 percent 516 00:23:05,050 --> 00:23:07,500 Speaker 1: or 40% probably for a short term, they can do 517 00:23:07,510 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: that because they know that if I buy a car 518 00:23:09,369 --> 00:23:11,910 Speaker 1: I down the money, I sell a car after like 519 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: 3 to 4 years, 520 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,380 Speaker 1: the money is going to be gone anyway. Yeah. Yeah. So, 521 00:23:15,390 --> 00:23:17,239 Speaker 1: so they rather do that, but of course they are 522 00:23:17,250 --> 00:23:19,698 Speaker 1: paying a little bit more but to some of them, 523 00:23:19,729 --> 00:23:22,329 Speaker 1: once they are leasing, they say it's problem free car 524 00:23:22,530 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 1: break down. I just call them and they, they gave 525 00:23:25,209 --> 00:23:27,949 Speaker 1: me a new car, the tire punctures, they send to 526 00:23:27,959 --> 00:23:30,239 Speaker 1: some workshop cars down air con no good. They just 527 00:23:30,250 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 1: go to the workshop. So, yeah, so some people, they 528 00:23:32,369 --> 00:23:36,140 Speaker 1: are gunning for the convenience. There are so many options now. 529 00:23:36,305 --> 00:23:40,234 Speaker 1: 25 years ago, we do not have options like this. Now, 530 00:23:40,244 --> 00:23:42,685 Speaker 1: I could go to the HDB car park near me 531 00:23:43,045 --> 00:23:46,464 Speaker 1: and get the, get go for the day. It's quite 532 00:23:46,474 --> 00:23:49,364 Speaker 1: seamless in that sense. I feel like the car light 533 00:23:49,375 --> 00:23:55,323 Speaker 1: might work and maybe eventually calibrate the demand for cars. 534 00:23:55,334 --> 00:23:56,594 Speaker 1: But for now it's nice to know that there are 535 00:23:56,604 --> 00:23:59,354 Speaker 1: more co coming onto the market. I think overall 536 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,250 Speaker 1: I can feel people going, oh, finally some relief, some 537 00:24:02,260 --> 00:24:05,139 Speaker 1: reprieve for people who do want to get a car. 538 00:24:05,150 --> 00:24:07,129 Speaker 1: We'll get you guys back in a few years because 539 00:24:07,140 --> 00:24:09,629 Speaker 1: it's going to be crazy if prices go up or 540 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,419 Speaker 1: still maintain at this rate, even with the 20,000, then 541 00:24:12,430 --> 00:24:14,790 Speaker 1: I'll be like, what's going on? Just get used to 542 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 1: paying $100,000. I hope I don't want to get used 543 00:24:19,449 --> 00:24:20,900 Speaker 1: to it if he's wrong. 544 00:24:22,750 --> 00:24:24,010 Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, I think we 545 00:24:24,020 --> 00:24:26,109 Speaker 1: know that having a car in Singapore is a luxury. 546 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,379 Speaker 1: I mean, our transport system works most of the time 547 00:24:29,390 --> 00:24:31,239 Speaker 1: every now and then we did these occasions when something 548 00:24:31,250 --> 00:24:33,250 Speaker 1: goes wrong. But to a large extent, I think it 549 00:24:33,260 --> 00:24:35,869 Speaker 1: is effective. So if you're looking for a car, just 550 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,179 Speaker 1: weigh the pros and cons, think about how badly you 551 00:24:38,189 --> 00:24:40,390 Speaker 1: really need it. Because I got to admit if I 552 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 1: do the math, owning a car compared to taking a 553 00:24:43,130 --> 00:24:45,380 Speaker 1: taxi everywhere I go all the time, 554 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,859 Speaker 1: it's still more expensive to own a car. That's right. 555 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,849 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to this episode and thanks to 556 00:24:50,859 --> 00:24:55,010 Speaker 1: the team Janani Johari, Joanne Chan, Tiffany, Sa Wen and 557 00:24:55,020 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 1: Toh Yan Yon sound mixing by Ken Delbridge. See you 558 00:24:57,890 --> 00:24:59,010 Speaker 1: next week. Bye for now.