1 00:00:02,849 --> 00:00:05,139 Speaker 1: You're listening to AC N A podcast. 2 00:00:07,019 --> 00:00:11,219 Speaker 1: This will truly be the golden age of America. That's 3 00:00:11,228 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: what we have to know. 4 00:00:16,299 --> 00:00:20,590 Speaker 1: This is a magnificent victory for the American people that 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,930 Speaker 1: will allow us to make America great again, 6 00:00:27,430 --> 00:00:31,590 Speaker 1: Donald Trump speaking there the 45th US president and soon 7 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:36,668 Speaker 1: to become the 47th, the republican leader beat his democratic rival, 8 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,259 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris in the electoral college count and also the 9 00:00:40,270 --> 00:00:41,089 Speaker 1: popular vote 10 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: before election day. He survived assassination attempts, criminal cases and 11 00:00:46,490 --> 00:00:51,138 Speaker 1: defied critics who say he's erratic, offensive and generally bad 12 00:00:51,150 --> 00:00:54,490 Speaker 1: for the US and the world. Miss Harris raised more money. 13 00:00:54,500 --> 00:00:57,939 Speaker 1: She had celebrities and many others on her side. But 14 00:00:57,950 --> 00:01:01,619 Speaker 1: with both running as change candidates in what seemed like 15 00:01:01,630 --> 00:01:05,580 Speaker 1: a razor thin race defined by the economy, abortion, immigration 16 00:01:06,029 --> 00:01:10,230 Speaker 1: and the state of American democracy. Mr Trump succeeded in 17 00:01:10,239 --> 00:01:13,349 Speaker 1: convincing the electorate. He was the right choice. 18 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,089 Speaker 1: Hello, I'm Arnold Gay and I've just come off a 19 00:01:17,099 --> 00:01:22,069 Speaker 1: marathon shift surviving on coffee and snacks as well. My 20 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: colleagues who are joining me now correspondent Nick Harper and 21 00:01:25,169 --> 00:01:26,220 Speaker 1: Sally Patterson. 22 00:01:26,769 --> 00:01:32,789 Speaker 1: Hello, both. It's good to see that you're both standing about. 23 00:01:33,089 --> 00:01:34,849 Speaker 1: Let me get straight to it so we can let 24 00:01:34,860 --> 00:01:37,029 Speaker 1: the both of you go and get some much needed rest. 25 00:01:37,300 --> 00:01:42,869 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, a convicted felon accused of inciting civil unrest 26 00:01:42,879 --> 00:01:47,389 Speaker 1: after the last election and openly admiring dictators. But now 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,230 Speaker 1: he's going to be the second US president 28 00:01:49,459 --> 00:01:54,239 Speaker 1: to win two non consecutive terms. The big question is, 29 00:01:54,250 --> 00:01:58,639 Speaker 1: what exactly was he selling that Americans bought into? We 30 00:01:58,650 --> 00:02:02,150 Speaker 1: have many opinions and we heard from a former White 31 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,610 Speaker 1: House staffer called Kevin Clements. He was from the Bush 32 00:02:05,620 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: era and he said this have a listen, Donald Trump 33 00:02:09,008 --> 00:02:11,619 Speaker 1: won because he tapped into 34 00:02:12,258 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: uh a lot of fear of the future and a 35 00:02:16,729 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: great deal of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Much more 36 00:02:21,610 --> 00:02:25,559 Speaker 1: so than the average person thought or expected. Um The 37 00:02:25,570 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: dissatisfaction 38 00:02:27,610 --> 00:02:31,380 Speaker 1: uh really was centered less on immigration and more on 39 00:02:31,389 --> 00:02:32,910 Speaker 1: inflation as it turns out, 40 00:02:33,779 --> 00:02:38,478 Speaker 1: Sally you were at Trump HQ. Was that the general 41 00:02:38,490 --> 00:02:40,740 Speaker 1: sense of things you got as well as you were 42 00:02:40,750 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: covering the watch party there? Well, Donald Trump throughout this 43 00:02:45,008 --> 00:02:50,959 Speaker 1: campaign has really prided himself on being an unconventional politician. 44 00:02:51,038 --> 00:02:54,350 Speaker 1: He's really tried to run something quite different here. He says, 45 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:55,279 Speaker 1: I'm not one 46 00:02:55,369 --> 00:02:59,299 Speaker 1: of these DC folks inside the White House and standing 47 00:02:59,309 --> 00:03:02,149 Speaker 1: above you all. I am a man of the people 48 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,229 Speaker 1: and I'm going to be the one to listen to 49 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: the real needs of real Americans and I'm going to 50 00:03:07,529 --> 00:03:12,149 Speaker 1: make America great again and it absolutely resonated with the 51 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: voters that I spent the evening with here in Palm 52 00:03:15,809 --> 00:03:16,820 Speaker 1: Beach Florida, 53 00:03:17,119 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: they were all dressed up to the nines in their 54 00:03:19,610 --> 00:03:23,660 Speaker 1: Trump merchandise, wearing those famous make America great again hats. 55 00:03:23,669 --> 00:03:26,789 Speaker 1: All the merch you could possibly think of waving American flags. 56 00:03:26,830 --> 00:03:29,839 Speaker 1: And there was real optimism among them because for many 57 00:03:29,850 --> 00:03:33,020 Speaker 1: of them felt that the Democrats were bringing the United 58 00:03:33,029 --> 00:03:36,839 Speaker 1: States along the wrong path. They were really worried about 59 00:03:36,850 --> 00:03:41,539 Speaker 1: the economy about migration, about world wars. And Donald Trump 60 00:03:41,550 --> 00:03:42,529 Speaker 1: has basically promise 61 00:03:42,966 --> 00:03:45,727 Speaker 1: to deal with every single one of those issues. And 62 00:03:45,736 --> 00:03:47,826 Speaker 1: not just that he says he's going to do it 63 00:03:47,837 --> 00:03:51,576 Speaker 1: on day one. Immigration was a front and center issue 64 00:03:51,587 --> 00:03:54,647 Speaker 1: in his campaign. He's promised to deal with the influx 65 00:03:54,656 --> 00:03:58,347 Speaker 1: of migrants coming into the US from Mexico through that 66 00:03:58,356 --> 00:04:03,356 Speaker 1: southern border. He's promised to whack taxes on Mexico itself 67 00:04:03,367 --> 00:04:06,807 Speaker 1: until it deals with that ongoing situation. And these are 68 00:04:06,817 --> 00:04:08,007 Speaker 1: the messages that people 69 00:04:08,134 --> 00:04:10,574 Speaker 1: really wanted to hear. Now, the other thing to mention 70 00:04:10,583 --> 00:04:13,634 Speaker 1: is many people were taken aback by just how quickly 71 00:04:13,643 --> 00:04:16,313 Speaker 1: we saw these results come in and just how decisive 72 00:04:16,324 --> 00:04:19,523 Speaker 1: it was. I've been saying throughout this process that there 73 00:04:19,533 --> 00:04:23,363 Speaker 1: are actually many more what I'd call secret Trump supporters 74 00:04:23,373 --> 00:04:26,313 Speaker 1: than we think. And the fact that the polls were 75 00:04:26,324 --> 00:04:29,623 Speaker 1: so close gives an indication that there were many other 76 00:04:29,634 --> 00:04:32,652 Speaker 1: people who maybe secretly really wanted to go out and 77 00:04:32,664 --> 00:04:33,553 Speaker 1: cast a vote 78 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,001 Speaker 1: for Trump thinking he was the one who had their 79 00:04:36,010 --> 00:04:38,531 Speaker 1: best interests at heart. But we're keeping it on the 80 00:04:38,540 --> 00:04:41,971 Speaker 1: down low until now. Now they've gone and actually cast 81 00:04:41,980 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: that vote and we've got ourselves a new president. So, Nick, 82 00:04:44,690 --> 00:04:47,570 Speaker 1: you were at Harris HQ throughout the night as well. 83 00:04:47,580 --> 00:04:50,670 Speaker 1: At their watch party. There was optimism. Obviously, there was 84 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:52,781 Speaker 1: optimism at the start. There was a lot of hope 85 00:04:52,790 --> 00:04:56,729 Speaker 1: that those voters fairly mentioned would actually come out and 86 00:04:56,740 --> 00:04:58,609 Speaker 1: actually vote in favor of the Harris campaign. I beg 87 00:04:58,621 --> 00:04:59,050 Speaker 1: your pardon. 88 00:04:59,470 --> 00:05:02,100 Speaker 1: Eventually you didn't. So can you tell us what happened 89 00:05:02,109 --> 00:05:05,238 Speaker 1: as the numbers started coming in? It must have really 90 00:05:05,250 --> 00:05:08,409 Speaker 1: changed the mood where you were in very visible ways. 91 00:05:08,799 --> 00:05:12,049 Speaker 1: Yeah, very visible. I mean, we went from people joyously 92 00:05:12,059 --> 00:05:14,859 Speaker 1: queuing around the block to get into this venue to 93 00:05:14,869 --> 00:05:17,459 Speaker 1: getting to the point where they literally had their heads 94 00:05:17,470 --> 00:05:20,750 Speaker 1: in their hands leaving early. One person said to me 95 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,549 Speaker 1: as they watch those results come in when it was 96 00:05:22,559 --> 00:05:25,169 Speaker 1: very clear that it was heading in Donald Trump's direction, 97 00:05:25,178 --> 00:05:27,428 Speaker 1: we didn't have the final result. They said to me 98 00:05:27,500 --> 00:05:30,220 Speaker 1: it's over and at that point, they left the venue. 99 00:05:30,230 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: It was a bit like a balloon slowly having the 100 00:05:33,049 --> 00:05:35,059 Speaker 1: air released out of it. It started great 101 00:05:35,428 --> 00:05:37,750 Speaker 1: and slowly during the course of the evening, uh we 102 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 1: just saw the air literally go out of the room 103 00:05:40,488 --> 00:05:42,829 Speaker 1: as people realized it was not going in their direction. 104 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,750 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of them felt and hoped 105 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,290 Speaker 1: that they were going to see history that we're going 106 00:05:47,299 --> 00:05:50,170 Speaker 1: to see the first female president get elected, but just 107 00:05:50,178 --> 00:05:53,339 Speaker 1: left so disappointed because that was just not what happened. 108 00:05:53,500 --> 00:05:57,549 Speaker 1: So can we say with some confidence that the polls 109 00:05:57,559 --> 00:06:01,029 Speaker 1: have failed for the third consecutive election? Nick? 110 00:06:01,369 --> 00:06:04,058 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting this o on this polling because obviously 111 00:06:04,070 --> 00:06:07,589 Speaker 1: in 2016, they were completely wrong. No one predicted that 112 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,399 Speaker 1: Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton in 2020. 113 00:06:10,410 --> 00:06:12,709 Speaker 1: They were wrong. They did say that he was going 114 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,170 Speaker 1: to lose to Joe Biden, but they underestimated how well 115 00:06:16,178 --> 00:06:18,390 Speaker 1: he did. But I think there's one interesting thing to 116 00:06:18,399 --> 00:06:20,969 Speaker 1: note on this, the margin of error ahead of this 117 00:06:20,980 --> 00:06:21,709 Speaker 1: on the polling 118 00:06:21,980 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: suggested that either candidate could pretty much win any of 119 00:06:26,488 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 1: those seven swing states. So if you look at it 120 00:06:29,170 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: another way, one of those candidates could win all seven 121 00:06:33,450 --> 00:06:35,790 Speaker 1: of the swing states. And obviously we're heading towards a 122 00:06:35,799 --> 00:06:39,099 Speaker 1: landslide and that seems to be what has happened, that 123 00:06:39,109 --> 00:06:42,459 Speaker 1: margin of error came into play and yes, they seem 124 00:06:42,470 --> 00:06:43,859 Speaker 1: to have got it wrong. But at the same time, 125 00:06:43,869 --> 00:06:45,219 Speaker 1: if you factor in that margin of error, 126 00:06:45,559 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: there was some prediction beforehand that one of them could 127 00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:53,070 Speaker 1: take this very quickly in a landslide type scenario. And Nick, 128 00:06:53,079 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 1: while we're talking, just want to ask you as well, 129 00:06:55,488 --> 00:06:59,380 Speaker 1: what do you think went wrong? How did the Democrats 130 00:06:59,390 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 1: actually lose this so badly. I mean, we've spoken to 131 00:07:01,730 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: a few people over the past 24 hours, Steve ound 132 00:07:04,850 --> 00:07:08,409 Speaker 1: one of them from Malaty Associates. And here's what he said. 133 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 2: This election turned out to be a referendum on the 134 00:07:11,929 --> 00:07:14,980 Speaker 2: Biden administration of which the vice president is a part 135 00:07:14,989 --> 00:07:19,420 Speaker 2: Americans wanted change. Vice President Harris could not convince the 136 00:07:19,429 --> 00:07:22,220 Speaker 2: Americans that she could bring the change that they wanted. 137 00:07:22,230 --> 00:07:24,529 Speaker 2: So this was as much a vote and maybe more 138 00:07:24,540 --> 00:07:26,589 Speaker 2: of a vote against the incumbent part 139 00:07:26,799 --> 00:07:29,679 Speaker 2: than it was for Donald Trump. So 140 00:07:29,690 --> 00:07:31,589 Speaker 1: what do you reckon, Nick? Is that your sense of 141 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,609 Speaker 1: it as well? Or did Biden simply wait too long 142 00:07:34,619 --> 00:07:37,959 Speaker 1: to quit? The race was Harris not good enough as 143 00:07:37,970 --> 00:07:42,079 Speaker 1: suggested many times by Donald Trump, questions about her IQ 144 00:07:42,089 --> 00:07:46,250 Speaker 1: her ability and association with Joe Biden or could it 145 00:07:46,260 --> 00:07:48,549 Speaker 1: be simply that she is a woman, 146 00:07:49,769 --> 00:07:52,559 Speaker 1: Arnold? I think it's probably a combination of all of 147 00:07:52,570 --> 00:07:55,010 Speaker 1: those things, throw them all into the mixing bowl and 148 00:07:55,019 --> 00:07:58,290 Speaker 1: they were all against her. The US wanted a change candidate. 149 00:07:58,299 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: Both of them tried to present themselves as this as 150 00:08:01,769 --> 00:08:03,750 Speaker 1: a new direction for the country, 151 00:08:03,970 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: but in many ways, Harris was struggling to articulate how 152 00:08:07,730 --> 00:08:10,190 Speaker 1: she could change the country. I think Donald Trump did 153 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,049 Speaker 1: much better in that. She just was not able to 154 00:08:13,059 --> 00:08:15,268 Speaker 1: make the case in the same way. I think there 155 00:08:15,279 --> 00:08:19,100 Speaker 1: was also anger at the party. Biden dropped out far 156 00:08:19,109 --> 00:08:22,109 Speaker 1: too late, dropping out towards the tail end of July. 157 00:08:22,119 --> 00:08:24,570 Speaker 1: I was in Delaware when he made the decision that 158 00:08:24,579 --> 00:08:27,369 Speaker 1: weekend where he was staying. And really that only 159 00:08:27,572 --> 00:08:30,162 Speaker 1: for just over three months and there was no chance 160 00:08:30,173 --> 00:08:34,122 Speaker 1: for a primary contest in the Democratic Party to choose 161 00:08:34,131 --> 00:08:37,602 Speaker 1: the candidate. There was essentially just this coronation of Kamala 162 00:08:37,612 --> 00:08:40,682 Speaker 1: Harris and that did cause some anger in the party. 163 00:08:40,783 --> 00:08:44,083 Speaker 1: And then Harris herself when it became clear that she 164 00:08:44,093 --> 00:08:46,242 Speaker 1: was going to be the person leading the party into 165 00:08:46,252 --> 00:08:49,402 Speaker 1: this election. She just didn't make a clean break with Biden. 166 00:08:49,672 --> 00:08:50,833 Speaker 1: She said that 167 00:08:50,955 --> 00:08:53,995 Speaker 1: in many ways, she would continue his policies. And when 168 00:08:54,005 --> 00:08:55,935 Speaker 1: you bear in mind that the US wanted a change 169 00:08:55,945 --> 00:08:58,035 Speaker 1: candidate to say, look, I'm going to be continuing what 170 00:08:58,046 --> 00:09:01,055 Speaker 1: the guy who's already in the job is doing, that's 171 00:09:01,065 --> 00:09:04,195 Speaker 1: not really gonna help your case. And yes, then she's 172 00:09:04,205 --> 00:09:06,755 Speaker 1: a woman. Uh Hillary Clinton didn't manage it. She didn't 173 00:09:06,765 --> 00:09:09,986 Speaker 1: manage it. Is the US ready to elect a female 174 00:09:09,995 --> 00:09:15,655 Speaker 1: into the White House 2016, 2024 suggests they're not Sally, 175 00:09:15,666 --> 00:09:18,476 Speaker 1: you are a Trump HQ. Do you actually get a 176 00:09:18,486 --> 00:09:20,616 Speaker 1: true sense of that as well? We know that 177 00:09:20,979 --> 00:09:24,809 Speaker 1: younger male voters voted for Donald Trump in particular, we 178 00:09:24,820 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: know that the non college white males also stayed if 179 00:09:28,969 --> 00:09:31,609 Speaker 1: you like with Donald Trump. Did you feel as you 180 00:09:31,619 --> 00:09:34,329 Speaker 1: were covering the watch party that there is the sense 181 00:09:34,340 --> 00:09:39,169 Speaker 1: that Trump supporters and maybe more Americans in this particular election, 182 00:09:39,549 --> 00:09:42,829 Speaker 1: one, what they perceive to be a tough guy in 183 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,489 Speaker 1: charge Arnold. I think the gender split in this election 184 00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:48,939 Speaker 1: is something hugely interesting and I think will probably be 185 00:09:48,950 --> 00:09:52,728 Speaker 1: looked back on in years to come. What we've seen 186 00:09:52,739 --> 00:09:59,020 Speaker 1: throughout this process is female American voters turning left, voting 187 00:09:59,030 --> 00:10:02,570 Speaker 1: more and more with Kamala Harris. Her message really resonating 188 00:10:02,580 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: with them, talking about reproductive access, talking about a uniting 189 00:10:07,650 --> 00:10:08,289 Speaker 1: the nation 190 00:10:08,385 --> 00:10:11,494 Speaker 1: having more in common that divides them. What we've seen 191 00:10:11,505 --> 00:10:14,765 Speaker 1: from Donald Trump is a very strong message of making 192 00:10:14,775 --> 00:10:19,473 Speaker 1: America strong, economically healthy, making sure that it's seen and 193 00:10:19,484 --> 00:10:24,385 Speaker 1: taken seriously on the world stage. That message really hitting 194 00:10:24,395 --> 00:10:27,965 Speaker 1: home with young men in particular and indeed, that's what 195 00:10:27,974 --> 00:10:31,505 Speaker 1: the polling was showing us and it's what the outcome 196 00:10:31,515 --> 00:10:34,635 Speaker 1: was showing us as well. The exit polls strongly suggest 197 00:10:34,645 --> 00:10:37,125 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump swept up those young 198 00:10:37,219 --> 00:10:41,119 Speaker 1: American voters. We saw that across different demographics. He's picked 199 00:10:41,130 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: up some Black American men voters and Latino voters as well. 200 00:10:46,530 --> 00:10:50,469 Speaker 1: We saw a shift among Latino voters who historically have 201 00:10:50,479 --> 00:10:55,619 Speaker 1: voted for the Democrats shifting towards Donald Trump's masculine agenda 202 00:10:55,630 --> 00:10:59,330 Speaker 1: for America, obviously resonating with voters here. One thing I'll 203 00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:01,460 Speaker 1: add on that is someone who was kept very close 204 00:11:01,469 --> 00:11:04,799 Speaker 1: to Donald Trump's campaign throughout this process was Dana White. 205 00:11:04,809 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: He's the CEO 206 00:11:06,054 --> 00:11:09,424 Speaker 1: of UFC. And I think what's interesting about that is 207 00:11:09,434 --> 00:11:12,375 Speaker 1: it really shows Donald Trump trying to woo that so 208 00:11:12,385 --> 00:11:16,914 Speaker 1: called bro vote trying to court those bro voters who, 209 00:11:16,924 --> 00:11:19,694 Speaker 1: you know, who liked this big, strong masculine man. He 210 00:11:19,705 --> 00:11:22,885 Speaker 1: showed up at wrestling matches, he showed up at sports events, 211 00:11:22,895 --> 00:11:26,765 Speaker 1: he showed up on podcasts with quite right leaning male 212 00:11:26,775 --> 00:11:29,574 Speaker 1: podcasters as well. So really doing what he could to 213 00:11:29,585 --> 00:11:31,794 Speaker 1: make sure those young men not only supported him but 214 00:11:31,804 --> 00:11:34,755 Speaker 1: actually turned out on election day as well. 215 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,210 Speaker 1: And Nick, the Democrats by now, I imagine, would have 216 00:11:38,219 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: realized that they lost a huge chunk of Latino voters. 217 00:11:41,650 --> 00:11:44,780 Speaker 1: I'm wondering if there's already a plan in place about 218 00:11:44,789 --> 00:11:48,858 Speaker 1: how they're going to address all the issues which possibly 219 00:11:48,869 --> 00:11:51,460 Speaker 1: lost them the election. I just don't think there is Arnold, 220 00:11:51,469 --> 00:11:53,229 Speaker 1: but there needs to be and there needs to be 221 00:11:53,239 --> 00:11:56,289 Speaker 1: quickly because bear in mind it's another four years until 222 00:11:56,299 --> 00:11:59,059 Speaker 1: the next election. But the way the cycles work here 223 00:11:59,070 --> 00:12:00,659 Speaker 1: really as soon as one election 224 00:12:01,285 --> 00:12:05,245 Speaker 1: campaigning thoughts about the next one will almost begin instantly. 225 00:12:05,315 --> 00:12:06,934 Speaker 1: I think the big problem for the Democrats at the 226 00:12:06,945 --> 00:12:10,435 Speaker 1: moment is who is going to be leading the party 227 00:12:10,445 --> 00:12:13,226 Speaker 1: into the next election. There isn't really a candidate who's 228 00:12:13,236 --> 00:12:16,195 Speaker 1: there in the background, who could step forward. And that's 229 00:12:16,205 --> 00:12:18,966 Speaker 1: been part of the problem with Joe Biden because he 230 00:12:18,986 --> 00:12:21,915 Speaker 1: said when he was campaigning in 2020 that he would 231 00:12:21,926 --> 00:12:24,796 Speaker 1: usher in the next generation of Democrats. He was going 232 00:12:24,806 --> 00:12:26,356 Speaker 1: to be there as the placeholder 233 00:12:26,432 --> 00:12:28,391 Speaker 1: to beat Donald Trump. But he said he was going 234 00:12:28,401 --> 00:12:31,971 Speaker 1: very quickly try and work on fostering that next generation 235 00:12:31,981 --> 00:12:33,921 Speaker 1: and that, that hasn't happened. And that's why we had 236 00:12:33,932 --> 00:12:36,651 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris as the makeshift candidate. So, what do they 237 00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:39,021 Speaker 1: do now? Who do they find they need someone young? 238 00:12:39,030 --> 00:12:41,851 Speaker 1: They need someone dynamic, but they also need someone who 239 00:12:41,861 --> 00:12:44,790 Speaker 1: can appeal to all of those demographics that they've struggled 240 00:12:44,802 --> 00:12:47,710 Speaker 1: with in this election. Ok. So that's for the medium 241 00:12:47,721 --> 00:12:51,331 Speaker 1: to longer term. But there's the immediate concern, I imagine 242 00:12:51,341 --> 00:12:51,961 Speaker 1: because 243 00:12:52,369 --> 00:12:56,109 Speaker 1: the GOP has taken the Senate and the party also 244 00:12:56,119 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 1: looks on course, possibly to retain control of the House 245 00:12:59,890 --> 00:13:03,270 Speaker 1: of Representatives as well. Can you describe the level of 246 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:07,070 Speaker 1: alarm and, and is there anything that the Democrats can 247 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,380 Speaker 1: do or are planning to do that will be a 248 00:13:09,390 --> 00:13:13,039 Speaker 1: disaster for them if they have lost both chambers, the 249 00:13:13,049 --> 00:13:16,020 Speaker 1: Republicans retaining the house. But we know already that they 250 00:13:16,030 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: have won the Senate. That's the same scenario that we 251 00:13:18,289 --> 00:13:20,510 Speaker 1: had back in 2017 when Donald Trump 252 00:13:20,596 --> 00:13:23,616 Speaker 1: walked into the White House, controlling all three, the White House, 253 00:13:23,625 --> 00:13:26,726 Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. It basically means that anything 254 00:13:26,736 --> 00:13:30,265 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump wants to do will get approved, both 255 00:13:30,276 --> 00:13:32,575 Speaker 1: chambers will approve it and then he'll sign it into law. 256 00:13:32,585 --> 00:13:35,536 Speaker 1: It is that blank check scenario? Just interesting to note 257 00:13:35,546 --> 00:13:40,176 Speaker 1: on the Senate in particular, that is where judges get chosen. 258 00:13:40,265 --> 00:13:43,215 Speaker 1: That's where they get confirmed. Donald Trump. We know during 259 00:13:43,226 --> 00:13:46,835 Speaker 1: his last presidency, spent a lot of time installing pro 260 00:13:46,916 --> 00:13:48,776 Speaker 1: Trump judges, including a 261 00:13:48,822 --> 00:13:52,061 Speaker 1: pro Trump judge down in Florida who was put in 262 00:13:52,072 --> 00:13:55,562 Speaker 1: charge of his classified documents case. And then essentially after 263 00:13:55,572 --> 00:13:58,882 Speaker 1: several months of delays threw it out. And remember the 264 00:13:58,892 --> 00:14:03,931 Speaker 1: Senate also confirmed Supreme Court justices. Trump confirmed three in 265 00:14:03,942 --> 00:14:06,221 Speaker 1: his first term. If we get to a point where 266 00:14:06,231 --> 00:14:10,702 Speaker 1: someone steps down or dies or retires during this next term, 267 00:14:10,731 --> 00:14:13,541 Speaker 1: he would have an opportunity to fill another seat on 268 00:14:13,552 --> 00:14:16,961 Speaker 1: that nine court bench with another conservative justice. 269 00:14:17,460 --> 00:14:20,289 Speaker 1: And sadly, I imagine there's a certain amount of glee 270 00:14:20,299 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: in the Republican party right now. But 271 00:14:22,979 --> 00:14:26,289 Speaker 1: do you actually think based on what you're hearing, the 272 00:14:26,299 --> 00:14:29,260 Speaker 1: reporting that you've done would seem to suggest that that 273 00:14:29,270 --> 00:14:33,450 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and his associates are really going to take 274 00:14:33,460 --> 00:14:37,729 Speaker 1: full advantage of control of the various branches and 275 00:14:38,049 --> 00:14:40,270 Speaker 1: carry out what he actually promised to do. And that 276 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:43,390 Speaker 1: list is, I would say a fairly alarming list as 277 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,789 Speaker 1: well of things to do. I think the first thing 278 00:14:45,799 --> 00:14:48,219 Speaker 1: that we all know about Donald Trump is it's really 279 00:14:48,229 --> 00:14:51,830 Speaker 1: difficult to predict what he's actually going to do. He 280 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,690 Speaker 1: says a lot of things sometimes he seems to come 281 00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:57,349 Speaker 1: up with it on the spot as we've seen in 282 00:14:57,359 --> 00:15:01,390 Speaker 1: various rallies. He sometimes gives an impromptu speech comes out 283 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,229 Speaker 1: with some rather alarming statements indeed, which are quickly 284 00:15:04,322 --> 00:15:07,661 Speaker 1: picked up by the media here and around the world, 285 00:15:07,671 --> 00:15:12,492 Speaker 1: what's actually going to transpire as he steps back into 286 00:15:12,502 --> 00:15:15,562 Speaker 1: the oval office and in the years ahead, we'll have 287 00:15:15,572 --> 00:15:18,901 Speaker 1: to keep our eyes on and see. He's certainly made 288 00:15:18,911 --> 00:15:22,622 Speaker 1: a lot of pledges and promises in the past few months, 289 00:15:22,632 --> 00:15:26,071 Speaker 1: he's talked in particular raising alarm bells here about some 290 00:15:26,081 --> 00:15:30,061 Speaker 1: of his so called enemies internally within the country and 291 00:15:30,072 --> 00:15:30,502 Speaker 1: around 292 00:15:30,593 --> 00:15:34,604 Speaker 1: the world as well. Number one target being President Joe Biden, 293 00:15:34,614 --> 00:15:37,294 Speaker 1: who he said he's going to hire a special counsel 294 00:15:37,304 --> 00:15:40,544 Speaker 1: to come and hunt down specifically Kamala Harris, the vice 295 00:15:40,554 --> 00:15:44,213 Speaker 1: president and of course his opponent in this race has 296 00:15:44,223 --> 00:15:47,533 Speaker 1: also been at the receiving end of much of his criticism, 297 00:15:47,544 --> 00:15:51,414 Speaker 1: both speeches and also on social media. And he's alleged 298 00:15:51,424 --> 00:15:54,234 Speaker 1: that she should be indicted for crimes. He says to 299 00:15:54,244 --> 00:15:56,773 Speaker 1: do with allowing migrants to come into the country 300 00:15:56,866 --> 00:15:59,786 Speaker 1: and what he called an invasion. So lots of people 301 00:15:59,796 --> 00:16:02,346 Speaker 1: on his list of enemies there will have to keep 302 00:16:02,356 --> 00:16:04,806 Speaker 1: our eyes on what he actually does with it. Now, 303 00:16:04,815 --> 00:16:07,765 Speaker 1: the other thing to mention is that his own former 304 00:16:07,776 --> 00:16:12,216 Speaker 1: senior staff members have cautioned the public before they went 305 00:16:12,226 --> 00:16:15,245 Speaker 1: to the polls about some of the behavior that this 306 00:16:15,255 --> 00:16:17,755 Speaker 1: former president carried out last time around when he was 307 00:16:17,765 --> 00:16:20,205 Speaker 1: in the White House, saying that he was almost like 308 00:16:20,216 --> 00:16:23,085 Speaker 1: a dictator in some of his behavior, saying that 309 00:16:23,138 --> 00:16:26,677 Speaker 1: he had admired people like Hitler in the past for 310 00:16:26,687 --> 00:16:30,038 Speaker 1: the way that he carried out his war mechanisms. Now, 311 00:16:30,047 --> 00:16:32,708 Speaker 1: Trump's campaign has obviously pushed back on that but I 312 00:16:32,718 --> 00:16:35,317 Speaker 1: do think that there is a concern that given that 313 00:16:35,328 --> 00:16:38,838 Speaker 1: much power to one person, especially someone who can be 314 00:16:38,848 --> 00:16:41,218 Speaker 1: at times difficult to work out what he's going to 315 00:16:41,228 --> 00:16:44,218 Speaker 1: do next is certainly causing some concern here and around 316 00:16:44,228 --> 00:16:47,317 Speaker 1: the world. Is he going to make his legal woes disappear? 317 00:16:47,328 --> 00:16:49,317 Speaker 1: I think at least a couple of cases pending. 318 00:16:50,650 --> 00:16:54,909 Speaker 1: Well, Donald Trump is the first convicted felon to go 319 00:16:54,919 --> 00:16:57,409 Speaker 1: into the White House in us. History. I don't think 320 00:16:57,419 --> 00:17:01,549 Speaker 1: we should undermine just how significant that is when he 321 00:17:01,559 --> 00:17:03,270 Speaker 1: was running for the White House. We said this is 322 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,629 Speaker 1: a convicted felon running just because he went through those 323 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,270 Speaker 1: court cases didn't mean that he was ineligible to take 324 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,510 Speaker 1: the White House. In fact, he could have even ended 325 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,489 Speaker 1: up running from prison and now he's gone and done 326 00:17:14,500 --> 00:17:17,510 Speaker 1: it and he is now a president of the United 327 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,180 Speaker 1: States with a criminal 328 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: under his belt. Now, what we're seeing already is the 329 00:17:23,530 --> 00:17:28,688 Speaker 1: justice department having conversations about the two federal cases that 330 00:17:28,699 --> 00:17:31,649 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is facing to see how they can basically 331 00:17:31,660 --> 00:17:35,270 Speaker 1: make those go away before he gets back into office. 332 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,079 Speaker 1: There are of course, also a couple of state cases 333 00:17:38,089 --> 00:17:40,819 Speaker 1: pending as well. One of them in New York, which 334 00:17:40,829 --> 00:17:43,310 Speaker 1: I've been covering which is all to do with hush 335 00:17:43,319 --> 00:17:47,188 Speaker 1: money payments he's due for sentencing later this month. That 336 00:17:47,199 --> 00:17:47,810 Speaker 1: was delayed 337 00:17:47,890 --> 00:17:51,770 Speaker 1: due to a previous Supreme Court ruling. There is now 338 00:17:51,780 --> 00:17:55,030 Speaker 1: doubt over whether that sentencing is going to take place 339 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,430 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks time as planned, whether it 340 00:17:57,439 --> 00:17:59,849 Speaker 1: will ever take place. But there are certainly a lot 341 00:17:59,859 --> 00:18:02,910 Speaker 1: of unknowns when it comes to the former president's legal 342 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,729 Speaker 1: battles across the country. Nick, I just want to ask 343 00:18:05,739 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: you about the implications if you like for the rest 344 00:18:08,810 --> 00:18:11,310 Speaker 1: of the world, you know, that we've been covering the 345 00:18:11,319 --> 00:18:16,419 Speaker 1: possible scenarios for Asia. If there was a Trump 2.0 346 00:18:16,859 --> 00:18:19,369 Speaker 1: a lot of concern, there are, of course some countries 347 00:18:19,380 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: who are looking forward to the renewed partnership similar to 348 00:18:22,290 --> 00:18:25,500 Speaker 1: what they had when Donald Trump took office in 2016. 349 00:18:25,510 --> 00:18:28,660 Speaker 1: But can you broadly take us through what's going to 350 00:18:28,670 --> 00:18:31,020 Speaker 1: be different for the rest of the world with Donald 351 00:18:31,030 --> 00:18:31,958 Speaker 1: Trump in office? 352 00:18:32,209 --> 00:18:34,079 Speaker 1: We're going to be straight away back to that America 353 00:18:34,089 --> 00:18:39,790 Speaker 1: first idea of the world that isolationist, that nationalist approach 354 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,599 Speaker 1: to all things business, the way that the US interacts 355 00:18:42,709 --> 00:18:45,550 Speaker 1: with institutions right around the world. And I think the 356 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,670 Speaker 1: big one obviously, as we saw during the Trump presidency 357 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: of 2017 through to 2021 is tariffs. The impact of 358 00:18:52,770 --> 00:18:53,550 Speaker 1: that could protect 359 00:18:53,633 --> 00:18:56,253 Speaker 1: actually be huge because he's talking about ramping them up 360 00:18:56,262 --> 00:19:00,422 Speaker 1: even higher than they were during his first presidency. In particular, 361 00:19:00,432 --> 00:19:03,512 Speaker 1: those ones against China which haven't been downgraded by the 362 00:19:03,522 --> 00:19:07,883 Speaker 1: Biden administration could be increased even further. He's spoken about 60% 363 00:19:07,963 --> 00:19:11,613 Speaker 1: on all Chinese goods. He's even spoken about 100% on 364 00:19:11,623 --> 00:19:14,973 Speaker 1: some Chinese goods and a 10% blanket tariff on all 365 00:19:15,056 --> 00:19:17,656 Speaker 1: other countries right around the world. We're right back to 366 00:19:17,666 --> 00:19:22,536 Speaker 1: that trade war scenario and it impacts partners, allies around 367 00:19:22,546 --> 00:19:25,916 Speaker 1: the world. It impacts the relationships that the US has 368 00:19:25,926 --> 00:19:29,985 Speaker 1: tried to maintain or rebuild. Under President Biden. We could 369 00:19:29,994 --> 00:19:32,734 Speaker 1: see Donald Trump walking away from some of those relationships, 370 00:19:32,926 --> 00:19:36,395 Speaker 1: angering distancing allies, especially in Asia. 371 00:19:36,739 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: And then there's the impact on us consumers because if 372 00:19:39,130 --> 00:19:43,819 Speaker 1: those tariffs are increased to those levels, the US consumers 373 00:19:43,829 --> 00:19:46,209 Speaker 1: will effectively be paying more for the goods that are 374 00:19:46,219 --> 00:19:49,079 Speaker 1: coming into the country. It does have a huge potential 375 00:19:49,089 --> 00:19:51,198 Speaker 1: for a ripple effect right across the world. Felt in 376 00:19:51,209 --> 00:19:53,189 Speaker 1: Asia but also felt here in the US. 377 00:19:53,469 --> 00:19:56,979 Speaker 1: And also I would imagine the Middle East, Benjamin Netanyahu 378 00:19:56,989 --> 00:20:00,030 Speaker 1: said he was, I believe literally the first leader to 379 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:04,729 Speaker 1: congratulate Donald Trump on his victory. I'm wondering what are 380 00:20:04,739 --> 00:20:07,489 Speaker 1: the implications for the Middle East? We know this was 381 00:20:07,500 --> 00:20:11,530 Speaker 1: a huge factor for states like Michigan in particular. Do 382 00:20:11,540 --> 00:20:15,660 Speaker 1: you see things improving as far as the Hamas Israel war, 383 00:20:15,670 --> 00:20:16,849 Speaker 1: for example, is concerned, 384 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,979 Speaker 1: I suppose that is based on what you mean by improving. 385 00:20:20,069 --> 00:20:24,140 Speaker 1: There is obviously a very special relationship between Israel and 386 00:20:24,150 --> 00:20:27,780 Speaker 1: the United States. This is great news for Netanyahu. This 387 00:20:27,790 --> 00:20:31,180 Speaker 1: is really music to his ears because what we can 388 00:20:31,189 --> 00:20:34,349 Speaker 1: now expect is really a green light from the United 389 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,179 Speaker 1: States on to Israel for however, it would like to 390 00:20:37,189 --> 00:20:41,060 Speaker 1: continue to conduct this war in Gaza. There has been 391 00:20:41,069 --> 00:20:43,709 Speaker 1: growing concern about what that could look like. 392 00:20:44,175 --> 00:20:46,145 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has never shied away from the fact that 393 00:20:46,155 --> 00:20:49,114 Speaker 1: he is a very strong ally of Israel. And he 394 00:20:49,125 --> 00:20:52,313 Speaker 1: really thinks that countering terrorism and of course, countering the 395 00:20:52,324 --> 00:20:55,175 Speaker 1: growing threat of Iran has to be the number one 396 00:20:55,185 --> 00:20:59,155 Speaker 1: priority for Israel and much of the West. And it's 397 00:20:59,165 --> 00:21:02,435 Speaker 1: become a huge issue on the campaign trail here for 398 00:21:02,444 --> 00:21:07,035 Speaker 1: the Democrats, in particular Kamala Harris was repeatedly asked about 399 00:21:07,045 --> 00:21:09,573 Speaker 1: it and was repeatedly had to stand by where she 400 00:21:09,584 --> 00:21:11,064 Speaker 1: stood on it and had to show that yes, she 401 00:21:11,229 --> 00:21:15,389 Speaker 1: stood Israel's concerns and the Jewish community's concerns and also 402 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:19,390 Speaker 1: understand the ongoing humanitarian situation there as well. So we'll 403 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,050 Speaker 1: likely expect a change in how that war is progressing. 404 00:21:23,170 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has allegedly said to Netanyahu, I want the 405 00:21:26,930 --> 00:21:29,930 Speaker 1: war basically over and fixed by the time I'm back 406 00:21:29,939 --> 00:21:33,209 Speaker 1: in office, that's only really a couple of months time. 407 00:21:33,219 --> 00:21:36,060 Speaker 1: But I think there will now be quite a dramatic 408 00:21:36,069 --> 00:21:38,209 Speaker 1: change in how that war is playing out. 409 00:21:38,675 --> 00:21:40,385 Speaker 1: And Nick, I just want to ask the final question 410 00:21:40,395 --> 00:21:43,103 Speaker 1: about what Donald Trump might do in terms of the 411 00:21:43,114 --> 00:21:45,305 Speaker 1: Middle East. I'm wondering as well. Do you think Donald 412 00:21:45,314 --> 00:21:47,155 Speaker 1: Trump will do? I mean there was some success with 413 00:21:47,165 --> 00:21:52,025 Speaker 1: the Abraham Accords, for example, is there still room given 414 00:21:52,035 --> 00:21:56,994 Speaker 1: what has happened since the October attacks against Israel is 415 00:21:57,005 --> 00:21:59,515 Speaker 1: there room for that sort of accord and for that 416 00:21:59,525 --> 00:22:01,854 Speaker 1: sort of an alliance, if you like to be signed 417 00:22:01,864 --> 00:22:05,264 Speaker 1: between Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. At this point, 418 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,020 Speaker 1: there was a hope for more normalization of relations between 419 00:22:09,030 --> 00:22:13,270 Speaker 1: Israel and Arab nations before October the seventh. All of 420 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,899 Speaker 1: that essentially got thrown out the window as a result 421 00:22:15,910 --> 00:22:17,739 Speaker 1: of what we've seen in the last year and a half. 422 00:22:17,750 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: But will Donald Trump be able to push that? He 423 00:22:20,050 --> 00:22:22,260 Speaker 1: likely will. I mean, the Abraham Accords was a big 424 00:22:22,270 --> 00:22:25,099 Speaker 1: feather in his cap if he comes into office, if 425 00:22:25,109 --> 00:22:27,719 Speaker 1: he's able to say that he's the president that restores 426 00:22:27,750 --> 00:22:30,699 Speaker 1: peace to the Middle East. If he's able to improve 427 00:22:30,709 --> 00:22:32,420 Speaker 1: relations in the region 428 00:22:32,729 --> 00:22:36,250 Speaker 1: at a time, when they look considerably strained, that would 429 00:22:36,260 --> 00:22:38,510 Speaker 1: be a huge win for him. That would be a 430 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,619 Speaker 1: real legacy defining moment for President Trump. And because of 431 00:22:42,630 --> 00:22:47,349 Speaker 1: that special relationship between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, 432 00:22:47,410 --> 00:22:50,310 Speaker 1: there is a chance that they will do what they can. 433 00:22:50,459 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 1: But it's really a question as to whether Arab nations 434 00:22:53,369 --> 00:22:56,790 Speaker 1: at this point in history would want to do anything 435 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,170 Speaker 1: that sees them working more closely with Israel 436 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,169 Speaker 1: Nick and Sally, we leave it there. Thank you so 437 00:23:02,180 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 1: much for talking to me. Been a pleasure. Get some rest. 438 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: You too. Thank you. 439 00:23:10,780 --> 00:23:14,930 Speaker 1: Our China correspondent Olivia joins us now, Olivia. Hi there. 440 00:23:14,939 --> 00:23:17,290 Speaker 1: Thanks very much for joining us. Can I ask you 441 00:23:17,300 --> 00:23:20,750 Speaker 1: what's been the mood and reaction in China so far 442 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,900 Speaker 1: arnold. It was a very busy day covering the election 443 00:23:24,910 --> 00:23:29,390 Speaker 1: results and huge buzz, not just yesterday but throughout the 444 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,139 Speaker 1: entire election period. But I guess you would say that 445 00:23:33,150 --> 00:23:37,179 Speaker 1: for China, Mr Trump being elected again, didn't really come 446 00:23:37,189 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: as a huge surprise. We have just heard as of 447 00:23:41,290 --> 00:23:44,810 Speaker 1: this recording time that CNN is reporting that Chinese President 448 00:23:44,819 --> 00:23:46,419 Speaker 1: Xi Jinping has called Mr Trump 449 00:23:46,510 --> 00:23:49,569 Speaker 1: to congratulate him. Although I have to add that we 450 00:23:49,579 --> 00:23:53,389 Speaker 1: haven't heard from the Chinese side officially on this. But 451 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,849 Speaker 1: the Chinese Foreign Ministry has said that it respects the 452 00:23:56,859 --> 00:24:01,209 Speaker 1: choice of the American people. But talking to many Chinese analysts, 453 00:24:01,349 --> 00:24:02,899 Speaker 1: it was hard for them to land on who is 454 00:24:02,910 --> 00:24:06,020 Speaker 1: the preferred candidate. But there were some who said that 455 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: perhaps there is a least preferred candidate and that would 456 00:24:09,810 --> 00:24:11,649 Speaker 1: be Mr Trump because of his perceive 457 00:24:11,979 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: unpredictability. And we have seen people from all walks of life, 458 00:24:16,689 --> 00:24:21,300 Speaker 1: respond businesses have also been hedging against this diversifying their 459 00:24:21,310 --> 00:24:25,530 Speaker 1: businesses and supply chains out of China to for example, 460 00:24:25,540 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia for a variety of reasons online. It's been interesting, 461 00:24:29,930 --> 00:24:32,319 Speaker 1: I spent a lot of time just scrolling through Chinese 462 00:24:32,329 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: social media. Plenty of interesting videos memes and the hashtag 463 00:24:37,250 --> 00:24:42,089 Speaker 1: when Mr Trump declared victory of Trump wins the 2024 464 00:24:42,099 --> 00:24:45,369 Speaker 1: US election really shot to the top of Chinese social 465 00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:48,810 Speaker 1: media platform, Weibo. What was interesting I found was this 466 00:24:48,819 --> 00:24:54,089 Speaker 1: chart that measures, sentiments of netizens post and actually about 30% 467 00:24:54,099 --> 00:24:58,069 Speaker 1: of these posts registered a neutral sort of mood, but 468 00:24:58,079 --> 00:25:02,069 Speaker 1: about 20% were happy and 11% angry. 469 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,579 Speaker 1: Some netizens in the comments that I saw wrote that 470 00:25:05,589 --> 00:25:08,579 Speaker 1: the economic war between China and the US is going 471 00:25:08,589 --> 00:25:11,228 Speaker 1: to start again, calling for businesses to get ready. And 472 00:25:11,239 --> 00:25:13,978 Speaker 1: I think one of the big consensus talking to people 473 00:25:13,989 --> 00:25:17,099 Speaker 1: is yes, they don't have a vote in this election, 474 00:25:17,109 --> 00:25:19,939 Speaker 1: but the outcome is going to affect them 475 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,859 Speaker 1: and perhaps their businesses in the years ahead. And the 476 00:25:23,869 --> 00:25:28,260 Speaker 1: consensus has always been that regardless of who won whichever 477 00:25:28,270 --> 00:25:33,438 Speaker 1: candidate that China us relations were going to be difficult. Ok. 478 00:25:33,449 --> 00:25:37,979 Speaker 1: So let's get more insight into that. How specifically do 479 00:25:37,989 --> 00:25:40,569 Speaker 1: you think a second Trump presidency is going to 480 00:25:40,900 --> 00:25:45,750 Speaker 1: affect those relations with Beijing right now? You can't call 481 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,589 Speaker 1: them rosy and warm and they weren't rosy or warm 482 00:25:49,599 --> 00:25:52,889 Speaker 1: either when Trump was in power. That was the start 483 00:25:52,900 --> 00:25:55,349 Speaker 1: of the trade wars. And we know that Biden essentially 484 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,909 Speaker 1: kept those tariffs in place. So what do you see, 485 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:00,160 Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen as far 486 00:26:00,170 --> 00:26:01,629 Speaker 1: as relations are concerned? 487 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,829 Speaker 1: Well, talking to some other journalists that have been based 488 00:26:04,839 --> 00:26:06,790 Speaker 1: here in China, we were saying, oh, are we going 489 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 1: to go back to writing stories that we did during 490 00:26:09,369 --> 00:26:13,319 Speaker 1: the first Trump administration? But I don't think that's going 491 00:26:13,329 --> 00:26:16,310 Speaker 1: to be the case talking to observers and listening to 492 00:26:16,319 --> 00:26:20,469 Speaker 1: the analysis that's come post election. Most agree that this 493 00:26:20,479 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: is going to be a new phase in China US relations. 494 00:26:23,569 --> 00:26:26,589 Speaker 1: But what's certain is uncertainty 495 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,889 Speaker 1: and observers are saying that yes, while this is Trump 496 00:26:29,900 --> 00:26:33,698 Speaker 1: 2.0 things are also different now between China and the US. 497 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:35,589 Speaker 1: And we know that there are a whole range of 498 00:26:35,599 --> 00:26:36,660 Speaker 1: issues between them, 499 00:26:36,910 --> 00:26:40,329 Speaker 1: whether it's what Mr Trump's approach is going to be 500 00:26:40,339 --> 00:26:43,770 Speaker 1: to us allies or on the South China Sea or 501 00:26:43,780 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 1: even Taiwan, which has been a major issue or in 502 00:26:46,930 --> 00:26:50,020 Speaker 1: fact the biggest issue that has angered China in its 503 00:26:50,030 --> 00:26:53,109 Speaker 1: relationship with the US. We have heard Mr Trump say 504 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,130 Speaker 1: that Taiwan should pay the US to protect it, but 505 00:26:56,140 --> 00:26:59,089 Speaker 1: it's still not really certain what his approach is going 506 00:26:59,109 --> 00:26:59,129 Speaker 1: to 507 00:26:59,180 --> 00:27:02,270 Speaker 1: to be. But top of mind, I think what everyone 508 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,448 Speaker 1: has been talking about is trade. What's going to happen 509 00:27:05,459 --> 00:27:08,599 Speaker 1: to that? You know, Trump has on the campaign trail 510 00:27:08,609 --> 00:27:13,849 Speaker 1: threatened additional tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods. That's a 511 00:27:13,859 --> 00:27:17,959 Speaker 1: campaign trail pledge. But some analysts expect that he will 512 00:27:17,969 --> 00:27:20,300 Speaker 1: make good on it if you recall, Mr Trump called 513 00:27:20,310 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 1: himself the tariff man 514 00:27:21,449 --> 00:27:25,479 Speaker 1: during his first term or at least that 60% figure 515 00:27:25,489 --> 00:27:28,609 Speaker 1: may be used as a starting point for negotiations. We 516 00:27:28,619 --> 00:27:33,329 Speaker 1: don't know the tech war analysts expected to deepen increased 517 00:27:33,339 --> 00:27:37,179 Speaker 1: export controls. Remember it was Mr Trump that put restrictions 518 00:27:37,189 --> 00:27:41,169 Speaker 1: on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in his first term putting 519 00:27:41,180 --> 00:27:43,589 Speaker 1: it on an entity list in 2019, 520 00:27:43,890 --> 00:27:48,410 Speaker 1: citing concerns over national security. So the Chinese Foreign Ministry 521 00:27:48,420 --> 00:27:51,630 Speaker 1: actually was asked, this was of course ahead of Mr 522 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,949 Speaker 1: Trump and declaring a victory, but they were asked how 523 00:27:54,959 --> 00:27:59,060 Speaker 1: it would handle potential tariffs or additional tariffs. And the 524 00:27:59,069 --> 00:28:03,310 Speaker 1: Foreign Ministry said it doesn't respond to hypothetical questions. And 525 00:28:03,530 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: this is interesting because observers are seeing that what China 526 00:28:07,010 --> 00:28:09,609 Speaker 1: is likely trying to do is also to get a 527 00:28:09,619 --> 00:28:14,188 Speaker 1: feel of how much negotiating room there could be with 528 00:28:14,199 --> 00:28:18,089 Speaker 1: Trump 2.0 what type of attitude he will take in 529 00:28:18,099 --> 00:28:21,550 Speaker 1: the short term though, depending on what moves the Trump 530 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,429 Speaker 1: administration takes when they do come into power. Analysts 531 00:28:25,536 --> 00:28:29,115 Speaker 1: saying that China would likely have its toolkit prepared to 532 00:28:29,125 --> 00:28:32,546 Speaker 1: react in perhaps a tit for tat manner using that 533 00:28:32,556 --> 00:28:36,715 Speaker 1: word reciprocity that we've seen. It used a lot. But 534 00:28:36,725 --> 00:28:40,306 Speaker 1: we also have to remember what's happening here within China. 535 00:28:40,316 --> 00:28:42,395 Speaker 1: It's not just what's happening in the US, it's going 536 00:28:42,406 --> 00:28:47,225 Speaker 1: to affect China's response. One prominent academic here in China, 537 00:28:47,235 --> 00:28:47,436 Speaker 1: who is 538 00:28:47,541 --> 00:28:50,491 Speaker 1: also a member of China's top political advisory body. JIA 539 00:28:50,791 --> 00:28:54,322 Speaker 1: Qing said in a talk that I attended that China's 540 00:28:54,332 --> 00:28:57,641 Speaker 1: policy towards the US will have to be tough because 541 00:28:57,651 --> 00:29:01,112 Speaker 1: the big ship of us policy on China has already 542 00:29:01,121 --> 00:29:04,391 Speaker 1: changed course. And so in the long term, there's already 543 00:29:04,401 --> 00:29:07,822 Speaker 1: been this recognition rather that whether it's a Democrat or 544 00:29:07,832 --> 00:29:09,482 Speaker 1: Republican administration 545 00:29:09,829 --> 00:29:12,209 Speaker 1: the last few years have shown that there is going 546 00:29:12,219 --> 00:29:15,770 Speaker 1: to be this increased rivalry between the two sides. China 547 00:29:15,780 --> 00:29:20,010 Speaker 1: views American actions as trying to contain its rise, but 548 00:29:20,020 --> 00:29:22,660 Speaker 1: that won't stop China from seeing that it wants to 549 00:29:22,670 --> 00:29:25,589 Speaker 1: manage its differences. In fact, this was the Foreign Ministry 550 00:29:25,599 --> 00:29:30,890 Speaker 1: Spokesperson Mao's response when asked how us China relations may 551 00:29:30,900 --> 00:29:31,089 Speaker 1: be 552 00:29:31,609 --> 00:29:37,119 Speaker 1: with Trump at helm our policy towards the US is consistent. 553 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,290 Speaker 1: We will continue to view and handle China us relations 554 00:29:41,489 --> 00:29:46,609 Speaker 1: under the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win 555 00:29:46,619 --> 00:29:49,670 Speaker 1: win cooper operation. So yeah, as we heard there, we 556 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,750 Speaker 1: will likely continue to hear those olive branch statements 557 00:29:52,939 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: from China. I was just listening to a talk by 558 00:29:56,689 --> 00:30:00,849 Speaker 1: Eurasia Group where it's China managing director, Jeremy Waters said 559 00:30:00,859 --> 00:30:04,089 Speaker 1: President C doesn't play golf but he did say that 560 00:30:04,099 --> 00:30:08,010 Speaker 1: the Chinese would try to open up new channels to talk. 561 00:30:08,349 --> 00:30:11,369 Speaker 1: Some have said that Mr Trump could be a more 562 00:30:11,380 --> 00:30:14,239 Speaker 1: pragmatic negotiator. He's very focused on 563 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,089 Speaker 1: goods and trade deficits and has talked about wanting to 564 00:30:18,099 --> 00:30:22,750 Speaker 1: boost the American manufacturing industry even amid higher tariffs. But 565 00:30:22,819 --> 00:30:25,079 Speaker 1: we'll have to see how that plays out. He did 566 00:30:25,089 --> 00:30:28,239 Speaker 1: say that he would welcome Chinese companies to manufacture cars 567 00:30:28,250 --> 00:30:31,849 Speaker 1: in America. They met us conditions which is a shift 568 00:30:31,859 --> 00:30:35,130 Speaker 1: from the Biden administration. But here in, 569 00:30:35,329 --> 00:30:38,270 Speaker 1: I know we also know that China has been preparing 570 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,420 Speaker 1: for this and we're talking about long term plans and 571 00:30:40,430 --> 00:30:43,900 Speaker 1: its long term strategy. We've heard them increasingly talk about 572 00:30:43,910 --> 00:30:49,670 Speaker 1: self reliance focusing on innovation, developing its advanced technologies, industries, 573 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 1: whether it's solar panels or electric vehicles and the other 574 00:30:55,050 --> 00:30:56,030 Speaker 1: domestic factor. Here 575 00:30:56,140 --> 00:30:59,430 Speaker 1: we have to remember is China's economy. It would want 576 00:30:59,439 --> 00:31:03,060 Speaker 1: to try and build those good ties with the US. 577 00:31:03,069 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: If possible, it is huge amounts of trade billions of dollars. 578 00:31:07,819 --> 00:31:11,030 Speaker 1: But if not possible, we will have to see how 579 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,079 Speaker 1: it continues to act. And in fact, there's a meeting 580 00:31:14,089 --> 00:31:18,530 Speaker 1: underway of China's top legislature where some analysts expect that 581 00:31:18,540 --> 00:31:23,319 Speaker 1: a larger economic stimulus package could be announced if Mr 582 00:31:23,329 --> 00:31:24,469 Speaker 1: Trump won. 583 00:31:24,729 --> 00:31:27,829 Speaker 1: We expect to hear on that in the coming days. 584 00:31:28,109 --> 00:31:30,219 Speaker 1: There's much more to be said. I know we could 585 00:31:30,229 --> 00:31:33,469 Speaker 1: go on and on, but we could, we could. And 586 00:31:33,479 --> 00:31:35,530 Speaker 1: I think one of the things we are looking out 587 00:31:35,540 --> 00:31:38,869 Speaker 1: for as we watch this China US relationship is what's 588 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,579 Speaker 1: going to happen in this transition. So I guess if 589 00:31:41,589 --> 00:31:44,469 Speaker 1: I want to sum it up, we have to buckle 590 00:31:44,479 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 1: up and get ready for this ride of Trump 2.0 absolutely. 591 00:31:49,010 --> 00:31:53,430 Speaker 1: 2025 is gonna be interesting is gonna be eventful 592 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,609 Speaker 1: and I imagine this. Yeah, it's gonna be busy. It's 593 00:31:56,619 --> 00:32:00,010 Speaker 1: gonna be like the US presidential campaigning. Lots of twists 594 00:32:00,020 --> 00:32:04,239 Speaker 1: and turns ups and downs, lots of unknowns. Olivia. Thank 595 00:32:04,250 --> 00:32:07,979 Speaker 1: you so much, Arnold. It's been billed as the most 596 00:32:07,989 --> 00:32:12,119 Speaker 1: consequential election in American history and it feels like it, 597 00:32:12,439 --> 00:32:14,949 Speaker 1: this is hardly the end of this conversation. There are 598 00:32:14,959 --> 00:32:17,459 Speaker 1: four more years to see the impacts of a second 599 00:32:17,469 --> 00:32:18,579 Speaker 1: Trump presidency. 600 00:32:19,050 --> 00:32:22,290 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. You can catch all our coverage 601 00:32:22,300 --> 00:32:26,949 Speaker 1: on Asia first at this podcast on Apple, Spotify and 602 00:32:26,959 --> 00:32:29,550 Speaker 1: on the CN A app. Bye for now.