WEBVTT - TalkBack: Why did the Dragon Year not boost Singapore's birth numbers? 0:00:00.360 --> 0:00:04.130 Talk back with Lance and Daniel from 6 p.m. 0:00:04.989 --> 0:00:09.859 Hello everybody, welcome into Talk Bank where you lead the show. 0:00:10.069 --> 0:00:14.909 We need to talk about why Singapore's fertility rate didn't 0:00:14.909 --> 0:00:17.389 get a boost from the dragon year. The dragon year 0:00:17.389 --> 0:00:21.299 did not boost Singapore's birth numbers. We're asking you. 0:00:21.569 --> 0:00:25.479 Why the fatal fertility rate has remained at its record 0:00:25.479 --> 0:00:30.049 low of 0.97 in 2024, despite it being the year 0:00:30.049 --> 0:00:31.969 of the dragon. So it didn't go up, didn't go down, 0:00:32.009 --> 0:00:35.168 it's just 0.97. Yeah, because normally when you have dragon years, 0:00:35.250 --> 0:00:38.009 it gives a bump up for birth rates here. 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:41.159 Uh, with the Chinese, especially the Chinese deeming it an 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:45.639 auspicious time to have babies. Uh, yet, early data showed 0:00:45.639 --> 0:00:50.349 that there were 30,800 resident births last year, just slightly 0:00:50.348 --> 0:00:54.189 up from 30,500. So I jumped in 300, but still 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.159 not enough to make a change to that 0.97. 0:00:58.569 --> 0:01:03.279 Uh, record low fertility rate in 2024. Nice. OK, so 0:01:03.279 --> 0:01:07.250 here's the thing, have people just given up the idea 0:01:07.250 --> 0:01:12.039 of cultural reasons for choosing the year of the birth, 0:01:12.430 --> 0:01:13.430 or is it 0:01:14.330 --> 0:01:18.238 The trump card is still cast. And that has now 0:01:18.239 --> 0:01:21.010 trumped the year of the dragon. I'm also going to 0:01:21.010 --> 0:01:25.110 throw another thing in this, yeah, maybe couples don't wanna 0:01:25.110 --> 0:01:28.819 have kids. Point blank blank 7 is the new norm. Yeah. 0:01:30.569 --> 0:01:32.410 What do you do? Please join the discussion as we 0:01:32.410 --> 0:01:35.690 ask the question, why do the dragon boost Singapore's numbers? 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:41.800 Have your say. It's Talkback with Lance and Daniel. Call 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:52.400 in 669-119-38 or WhatsApp 963-11-938. Doctor Tan, Paul Lin joining us, 0:01:52.470 --> 0:01:56.290 senior research fellow Institute of Policy Studies. Doctor Tan, hello, welcome. 0:01:57.129 --> 0:01:57.889 Thank you for having 0:01:57.889 --> 0:02:00.849 me. Have we usually some kind of boost from Dragon? 0:02:01.739 --> 0:02:05.760 Yes, I think that um usually we did uh for 0:02:06.019 --> 0:02:11.019 the past few cycles, um we've observed a boost in 0:02:11.020 --> 0:02:13.809 the fertility rate when it came to the dragon year. 0:02:14.110 --> 0:02:14.750 OK, maybe 0:02:14.750 --> 0:02:17.309 you can tell us, Dr. Tan, why are we seeing 0:02:17.309 --> 0:02:20.538 this sort of drop when it comes to 0:02:21.199 --> 0:02:22.059 The dragon, yeah. 0:02:23.119 --> 0:02:25.478 Well, I have to tell you that, uh, you know, 0:02:25.580 --> 0:02:29.139 it's impossible to see everything in advance. Uh, I myself 0:02:29.139 --> 0:02:32.360 was a little surprised that there wasn't a boost, uh, 0:02:32.470 --> 0:02:34.779 but what I will tell you is that, uh, and 0:02:34.779 --> 0:02:37.419 what a lot of people don't take into account is 0:02:37.419 --> 0:02:40.960 that the dragon year phenomenon is actually uh somewhat of 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:46.539 a relatively new and recent thing. Um so previous, so 0:02:46.538 --> 0:02:49.539 it started in the 70s, uh natural pre 0:02:49.990 --> 0:02:54.210 Uh, previously before that, anybody who is, uh, deeply intimate 0:02:54.210 --> 0:02:58.899 with the um idea of astrology, Chinese astrology would know 0:02:58.899 --> 0:03:01.668 that the way that people will look into uh what 0:03:01.669 --> 0:03:04.429 would be a good time to have a child is 0:03:04.429 --> 0:03:07.869 actually based on your uh parts uh 8. 0:03:07.994 --> 0:03:10.875 Characters, right? And that would not just be a year, 0:03:10.955 --> 0:03:14.524 which is a fairly minor consideration. It also depended on 0:03:14.524 --> 0:03:17.955 the month, the day, even the hour of birth. So 0:03:17.955 --> 0:03:21.793 there'll be 84 different things determining your 8 characters, and 0:03:21.794 --> 0:03:24.684 that actually is what is used to tell fate for 0:03:24.695 --> 0:03:25.675 fortune telling. 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:30.360 So why did this dragon phenomenon come about? Um, I 0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:33.038 think it basically it was a reaction to a lot 0:03:33.038 --> 0:03:35.789 of things that were going on in the, in that period. 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.350 So you know that at that point we also had 0:03:38.350 --> 0:03:42.479 a cultural revolution, um, in in in China, um, um. 0:03:42.585 --> 0:03:44.735 I mean, I mean around that period, um, this was 0:03:44.735 --> 0:03:47.835 a period where, um, there were a lot of cultural 0:03:47.835 --> 0:03:51.514 changes and um including the way that people thought about 0:03:51.514 --> 0:03:54.445 having kids. So in the past having kids was, uh, 0:03:54.675 --> 0:03:57.955 was not something that people debated about and everybody wanted 0:03:57.955 --> 0:03:58.714 to have children. 0:03:59.029 --> 0:04:02.279 Um, but then came along all these cultural changes and 0:04:02.279 --> 0:04:06.880 you know we actually invented new ways of um of 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:09.880 thinking about what what what are the what are the 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:14.509 cultural factors that are relevant um to things like uh childbearing. 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.320 are not so relevant anymore and now cost is a 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:19.320 bigger factor than cultural. That's one of the things that 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:21.040 we want to talk about a little bit as to 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:22.880 why this dragon year didn't work. Let's go to the 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.159 phone lines first, Dr. Tan. Christina has called in one 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:29.119 of our listeners, 669-11938. Christina, why do you think the 0:04:29.119 --> 0:04:32.880 dragoner did not boost Singapore's birth numbers? Actually, if you 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:34.519 are smart, you won't want to give birth to a 0:04:34.519 --> 0:04:39.200 dragon year. To have to be too many kids and 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:40.428 the competition is. 0:04:40.980 --> 0:04:44.409 It's going to be so crazy. So I guess people 0:04:44.410 --> 0:04:47.500 all know everybody is thinking are smarter now, you know that, 0:04:47.559 --> 0:04:49.518 you know, well, you know, you have too many kids 0:04:49.519 --> 0:04:52.920 during the dragon year, and you're fighting with, with so 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.769 many kids for not only for primary school, you have 0:04:56.769 --> 0:04:58.959 to fight with them for secondary school, you have to 0:04:58.959 --> 0:05:03.519 fight with them till tertiary, you know. Army also. And yeah, 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.559 army also. So why bother? 0:05:06.820 --> 0:05:09.540 Is that really a factor? No, it is true. I've heard, 0:05:09.619 --> 0:05:12.659 I've heard this many a time that because so many 0:05:12.660 --> 0:05:16.238 people in the previous dragon years, all the kids' classroom 0:05:16.238 --> 0:05:19.019 sizes were bigger, even for their matches. Is that what 0:05:19.019 --> 0:05:19.899 you heard as well, Christina? 0:05:20.540 --> 0:05:23.808 Yes, of course. And I have a relative who gave birth, 0:05:23.928 --> 0:05:29.399 I think during 1988, there were 52,000 or 54,000 babies. 0:05:30.420 --> 0:05:34.850 So that was crazy here. And every, every time when 0:05:34.850 --> 0:05:39.440 they come to a like a critical year, like primary 64, 0:05:39.730 --> 0:05:40.890 they are so worried. 0:05:41.790 --> 0:05:44.390 And, and they are so anxious because that's where they 0:05:44.390 --> 0:05:47.308 are fighting with people. Even if you are good, you 0:05:47.309 --> 0:05:49.950 have to be really, really very good to get into 0:05:49.950 --> 0:05:53.589 a good school. Singapore small country have to worry about 0:05:53.589 --> 0:05:56.510 HDB size, HDB price. Now also worry about what year 0:05:56.510 --> 0:06:02.390 you're born in, putting, uh, Tiger is that the unpopular year? 0:06:02.470 --> 0:06:06.670 Tiger is the unpopular in the calendar. I'm a monkey, 0:06:06.709 --> 0:06:08.230 I'm a monkey. How monkey or not? 0:06:13.220 --> 0:06:14.450 Rabbits also quite good. Christina, so nice to hear from you. 0:06:14.529 --> 0:06:17.459 Thank you so much. OK bye. Dr. Tan, what do 0:06:17.459 --> 0:06:19.130 you think about what Christina had to say that based 0:06:19.130 --> 0:06:21.808 on previous experience, there were just too many kids born 0:06:21.809 --> 0:06:23.480 and it was competition for resources. 0:06:24.230 --> 0:06:26.809 Yeah, exactly, I think Christina is absolutely right, but as 0:06:26.809 --> 0:06:28.488 time went on because it's a recent. 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.159 Kind of a new thing. I think people start, it 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:34.170 wasn't yet culturally stable and then, and the more, the 0:06:34.170 --> 0:06:36.670 more time went on, the more people became more aware 0:06:36.670 --> 0:06:39.369 of the problems of being part of a large cohort. 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:44.630 Um, and, uh, actually what you asked about the monkey, uh, zodiac, 0:06:45.049 --> 0:06:47.089 and so, uh, I just wanted to point out that 0:06:47.089 --> 0:06:50.959 in Singapore we have something quite interesting because you know how, uh, 0:06:50.970 --> 0:06:53.649 men go to NS and they delay their entry into 0:06:53.649 --> 0:06:56.730 the labor market. So when we did research, um, with 0:06:56.730 --> 0:06:59.440 my colleagues at NUS, we found that, um, in fact, 0:06:59.450 --> 0:07:01.970 it's not just dragon year, uh, children who tend to 0:07:01.970 --> 0:07:03.410 have lower wages. 0:07:03.570 --> 0:07:06.510 Uh, wages, when we looked at their wages, their labor 0:07:06.510 --> 0:07:09.750 market wages, um, because they're in a large cohort, but 0:07:09.750 --> 0:07:13.790 also people who are are paired with them in, um, the, 0:07:13.829 --> 0:07:16.910 the year of the horse, because men come out of 0:07:16.910 --> 0:07:19.970 NS a bit later, right, than women do. So they 0:07:19.970 --> 0:07:23.190 actually match with women from born in the year of 0:07:23.190 --> 0:07:26.700 the horse. And we also find that for that particular 0:07:26.989 --> 0:07:27.329 set of 0:07:27.380 --> 0:07:30.690 People, they also have lower wages. So definitely that may 0:07:30.690 --> 0:07:33.369 be a very good rationale behind what Christina 0:07:33.369 --> 0:07:33.450 is 0:07:33.450 --> 0:07:33.730 saying. 0:07:33.809 --> 0:07:34.130 Tiger. 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.730 But Dr. Tan, we still need a replacement rate of 0:07:40.730 --> 0:07:45.850 2.1 to allow the population to replace itself. At the 0:07:45.850 --> 0:07:49.250 rate we're going, we can have more older people and 0:07:49.250 --> 0:07:51.079 not too many young people. 0:07:52.750 --> 0:07:56.850 Um, that's right. Um, so it's, it's actually the case 0:07:56.850 --> 0:07:58.769 that even though we are all very used to the 0:07:58.769 --> 0:08:00.929 idea that Singapore is a low fertility country and we 0:08:00.929 --> 0:08:05.279 have a sub replacement TFR, the fact is that demographic 0:08:05.489 --> 0:08:08.670 changes in Singapore are not yet stabilized. There's still a 0:08:08.670 --> 0:08:12.529 lot of changes ongoing. Um, the reasons for why people 0:08:12.529 --> 0:08:15.200 don't have children actually has changed from just 0:08:15.252 --> 0:08:19.833 Uh, because it's too expensive, um, to other considerations as well. 0:08:20.083 --> 0:08:23.513 You know, people these days also, for example, don't want 0:08:23.513 --> 0:08:28.173 to have children in order to have, uh, old age insurance. Um, 0:08:28.322 --> 0:08:30.632 and that's, that's something that's positive. Actually, it can be 0:08:30.632 --> 0:08:33.002 a source of relief, right? Because you don't have to 0:08:33.002 --> 0:08:35.793 depend on your children and your, your children don't have to, uh, 0:08:35.802 --> 0:08:37.713 pay for you when you get old. But 0:08:37.765 --> 0:08:40.155 But at the same time, that reduces the reasons for 0:08:40.155 --> 0:08:42.695 having children. There are a lot of um, so that 0:08:42.695 --> 0:08:45.664 to to just uh make it sweet and short, um, 0:08:45.715 --> 0:08:49.824 there are other ongoing reasons as to why um people 0:08:50.515 --> 0:08:53.434 actually are changing the reasons for not having children. It's 0:08:53.434 --> 0:08:58.135 not just about cost as anymore actually other um changes 0:08:58.135 --> 0:09:00.343 happening we see um by cohort. 0:09:01.344 --> 0:09:02.224 All of our listeners. 0:09:03.340 --> 0:09:06.739 Made a punny comment. Apparently our low fertility rates will 0:09:06.739 --> 0:09:08.260 continue to drag on. 0:09:10.070 --> 0:09:14.070 Drag on, get it get it well done, Alvin, well done. Uh, 0:09:14.190 --> 0:09:16.989 another listener says people are holding off because they, they're 0:09:16.989 --> 0:09:20.219 in anticipation of the SG 60 gifts from the government. 0:09:21.429 --> 0:09:23.770 I don't think that you can hold off the baby la, 0:09:23.890 --> 0:09:26.699 you know what I mean, like, like, I don't think 0:09:26.700 --> 0:09:28.809 somebody last year said, no, no, no, no, maybe wait 0:09:28.809 --> 0:09:30.830 till 60, then have the baby at 60, but you've 0:09:30.830 --> 0:09:34.049 got to start now because you know it's 9 months 0:09:34.049 --> 0:09:36.969 and you're looking at December, November, December already, you know, 0:09:37.049 --> 0:09:39.010 so if you want to get on to the year 0:09:39.010 --> 0:09:42.619 of the dragon, it's too late for that, but this 0:09:42.619 --> 0:09:44.210 year is the you have the snake. 0:09:45.059 --> 0:09:47.020 So the year of the snake, what, what is it like? 0:09:47.260 --> 0:09:49.339 You know, is it popular at all or have you 0:09:49.340 --> 0:09:53.500 noticed sub uh substantial or significant folds, Doctor Tan? 0:09:54.309 --> 0:09:58.789 No, we, uh, actually only see significant differences in how 0:09:58.789 --> 0:10:02.349 many kids people have in tiger and dragon years in 0:10:02.349 --> 0:10:02.949 the past in 0:10:02.950 --> 0:10:03.669 Singapore. Oh, OK, 0:10:05.619 --> 0:10:09.218 uh, bottom line, maybe people don't care anymore. 0:10:10.510 --> 0:10:13.950 That these cultural reasons for having a baby in a 0:10:13.950 --> 0:10:17.309 specific year doesn't matter anymore. Is there any evidence, has, 0:10:17.460 --> 0:10:19.449 has any of your studies pointed towards that? I'm curious. 0:10:20.239 --> 0:10:23.450 Yes, I think that um it is very, uh there 0:10:23.450 --> 0:10:27.968 are very um that's very clear indication uh from various 0:10:27.969 --> 0:10:32.319 different polls that different cohorts actually have different attitudes towards, 0:10:32.330 --> 0:10:33.449 towards family formation. 0:10:33.700 --> 0:10:36.968 And the younger generation in general, when they say they 0:10:36.969 --> 0:10:39.559 don't want what the reason why they're not having children, 0:10:39.609 --> 0:10:42.010 it's not just because they didn't have the chance to 0:10:42.010 --> 0:10:45.700 get married, it's actually that they really do have either 0:10:45.700 --> 0:10:49.479 less interest in family formation or they would cite something 0:10:49.479 --> 0:10:53.210 like um they they feel that um it may not 0:10:53.210 --> 0:10:54.820 be a good thing to have kids, 0:10:54.929 --> 0:10:55.280 yeah, 0:10:55.450 --> 0:10:56.608 so that's something that you know. 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:58.679 is different from previous generations. 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.478 Yeah, I guess another thing is back then, if you 0:11:02.479 --> 0:11:04.919 had a kid or about to plan for a kid, 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:07.559 you would also get a lot of pressure from your 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:11.640 parents or grandparents, relatives. So maybe today, would you say 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:16.070 that kids don't, don't bother about that sort of pressure. 0:11:16.159 --> 0:11:18.200 They say, I mean we're doing our own thing, so 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:18.640 leave us alone. 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.469 And uh and, and there'll be a forecast and what 0:11:22.469 --> 0:11:25.750 year might be, you know, practices. Yeah, those were quite 0:11:25.750 --> 0:11:28.348 popular as well. People would look at the stars or 0:11:28.349 --> 0:11:32.390 certain alignments and then decide. Would you say as well, Dr. Tan, 0:11:32.950 --> 0:11:39.299 we saw less marriages, I think 24,800 in 2024 compared 0:11:39.299 --> 0:11:45.750 to 26,500 in 2023. Uh, was that a result of 0:11:45.750 --> 0:11:49.030 delays due to COVID? So maybe people are marrying less 0:11:49.030 --> 0:11:49.358 and 0:11:49.820 --> 0:11:54.650 Uh, maybe planning to have kids 23 years after marriage 0:11:54.650 --> 0:11:55.609 life. Well, 0:11:55.650 --> 0:11:59.349 it could be actually the opposite. The baseline was higher, um, 0:11:59.369 --> 0:12:01.530 in those years, right, so you have all these catch 0:12:01.530 --> 0:12:06.169 up marriages happening, um, because they couldn't get married in 2020, 2021, 0:12:06.330 --> 0:12:09.450 pushed it back to 22, 23, so when you compare 0:12:09.450 --> 0:12:12.969 that 2024 to 23, it may be that uh part 0:12:12.969 --> 0:12:16.369 of that is that the um that the baseline was 0:12:16.369 --> 0:12:17.520 higher than 23. 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:19.968 Um, at the same time, I think that when we 0:12:19.969 --> 0:12:23.929 talk about things like, uh, specifically, you know, I want 0:12:23.929 --> 0:12:27.919 to have babies in the dragon year versus, uh, and, uh, 0:12:27.929 --> 0:12:30.179 thinking about things like that, I think it's kind of 0:12:30.179 --> 0:12:34.209 an interesting paradox because on the one hand, there's never 0:12:34.210 --> 0:12:37.359 been more, it's never been more profitable to be an astrologer, 0:12:37.609 --> 0:12:37.849 you know. 0:12:37.942 --> 0:12:41.463 Uh, that's big money now it's a huge industry, um, 0:12:41.523 --> 0:12:44.163 so people are still ascribing or at least they're interested 0:12:44.163 --> 0:12:47.283 in astrology, but on the other hand, I think people 0:12:47.283 --> 0:12:50.552 just don't have the luxury anymore of, uh, trying to 0:12:50.552 --> 0:12:54.083 time children exactly when they have it. One thing is 0:12:54.083 --> 0:12:57.442 that we're all getting older, um, and when you get older, 0:12:57.482 --> 0:12:57.992 you start to get 0:12:58.046 --> 0:13:00.556 Anxious about when I can have a kid. I can't 0:13:00.556 --> 0:13:03.226 wait till dragon year, right, uh, to have a child. 0:13:03.356 --> 0:13:06.116 I can't delay, uh, if it's a it's a tiger 0:13:06.116 --> 0:13:10.455 year because I'm hitting my fertility, um, you know, uh, 0:13:10.466 --> 0:13:12.875 age kind of, uh, when I want to get all 0:13:12.875 --> 0:13:15.306 my babies out, you know, and maybe for some people, 0:13:15.395 --> 0:13:17.035 I want to have all my babies by the time 0:13:17.035 --> 0:13:19.755 I'm 35. So for them, it, it would be a 0:13:19.755 --> 0:13:23.195 matter of much more practical considerations, like, what can I 0:13:23.195 --> 0:13:25.416 do it now? Will my boss be happy? 0:13:25.719 --> 0:13:28.598 Um, is, is it OK if I have another baby 0:13:28.599 --> 0:13:30.890 within 2 years? These are the kind of things I 0:13:30.890 --> 0:13:32.309 think that are more on the minds of 0:13:32.309 --> 0:13:36.169 people timing it to things like when the HDB will 0:13:36.169 --> 0:13:37.210 be ready as well. 0:13:37.250 --> 0:13:41.570 Yeah, that's right. Yeah, so there are other things that 0:13:41.570 --> 0:13:44.590 make it so that the space is quite constrained actually 0:13:44.969 --> 0:13:45.690 for a lot of us. 0:13:45.890 --> 0:13:50.478 But we're also offering opportunities of flexi hours for people. 0:13:50.859 --> 0:13:53.859 And some of the, the goodies is you could have 0:13:53.859 --> 0:13:57.819 up to 9 months of parental leave, which is quite 0:13:57.820 --> 0:14:00.750 a lot. Don't you want to take advantage of that? 0:14:02.750 --> 0:14:06.450 Yeah, I think that there are, uh, definitely, um, um, 0:14:06.820 --> 0:14:11.569 incentives that, you know, and, um, I, I would say, uh, support, uh, 0:14:11.580 --> 0:14:15.429 given to families that people can respond to. Um, I, 0:14:15.590 --> 0:14:17.820 I think it's just a matter, uh, for a lot 0:14:17.820 --> 0:14:23.210 of people of whether they perceive that they can, they can, 0:14:23.219 --> 0:14:26.119 they are in a good place to have children. Um, 0:14:26.380 --> 0:14:28.599 if you look at, if you look at what, when 0:14:28.599 --> 0:14:30.380 you ask people, do you want to have, do you 0:14:30.380 --> 0:14:32.109 want to get married? Do you want to have children? 0:14:32.539 --> 0:14:36.260 Actually, most people would say yes, that would be ideal, 0:14:36.539 --> 0:14:39.250 it's not that they're saying that it necessarily is a 0:14:39.250 --> 0:14:42.340 bad it's something they don't want to have, but where 0:14:42.340 --> 0:14:44.690 is it in the queue is the question. Is it 0:14:44.690 --> 0:14:45.820 at the front of the queue? 0:14:46.090 --> 0:14:47.559 Or is it in the back of the queue? Is 0:14:47.559 --> 0:14:50.719 the front of the queue more like financial stability, and 0:14:50.719 --> 0:14:54.030 if I can get financial stability, I can get, um, uh, 0:14:54.039 --> 0:14:58.000 my family support, um, and other kinds of, uh, social support, 0:14:58.049 --> 0:15:01.400 my networks are up. um, then at that point, at 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:03.159 the back of the queue, the next item will be 0:15:03.159 --> 0:15:06.039 having a child, right, getting married and so forth. Um, 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.400 the problem is that then you need everything to fall 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:10.979 in place for a lot of people, and if that 0:15:10.979 --> 0:15:11.679 doesn't happen. 0:15:12.099 --> 0:15:15.260 Right, if it's pushed back too late, you know, or 0:15:15.260 --> 0:15:19.099 there's some kind of setback, then you don't see um 0:15:19.099 --> 0:15:19.940 the bus coming. 0:15:20.219 --> 0:15:23.619 I don't think so much. Um, one of our listeners 0:15:23.619 --> 0:15:26.900 whats up and says, I've got a dragon baby. I 0:15:26.900 --> 0:15:29.859 was so happy when I heard the news. That being said, 0:15:29.940 --> 0:15:32.460 I've never felt more time starved after having a child. 0:15:32.604 --> 0:15:34.635 But it's still worth it, I think. We want to 0:15:34.635 --> 0:15:37.195 have a 2nd kid, but there's just no time. Work 0:15:37.195 --> 0:15:40.155 is too hectic, just like what you were just saying, Prof. Uh, 0:15:40.515 --> 0:15:43.965 another person WhatsApping across and saying, Hi, Daniel and Lance, 0:15:44.275 --> 0:15:46.075 I'm born in the dragon year and I gave birth 0:15:46.075 --> 0:15:48.025 to my #2 in December last year. 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.440 So dragging you about the dragon, that's kind of cool. Uh, 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:52.719 the cost is high, you need energy to take care 0:15:52.719 --> 0:15:55.039 of the kids and it takes lots of me time 0:15:55.039 --> 0:15:57.960 a couple time. Basically, your kids, your life. Lots of 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.640 my friends in my age bracket are opting to be dinks, 0:16:00.650 --> 0:16:03.359 dual income, no kids, because they have full control of 0:16:03.359 --> 0:16:06.349 their life. They do what they want when they want. Yes, 0:16:06.450 --> 0:16:07.679 but you've got #2. 0:16:08.140 --> 0:16:11.090 Yeah, we just need one more push for number 33, 0:16:11.109 --> 0:16:15.609 we need one more. Hey, replacement rate is 2.7. Talk 0:16:15.609 --> 0:16:19.690 back with Lance and Daniel from 6 p.m. OK, we're 0:16:19.690 --> 0:16:23.010 looking at Singapore's fertility rate, which kind of held steady 0:16:23.010 --> 0:16:23.650 last year. 0:16:24.650 --> 0:16:29.130 At 0.97, even though it was a dragon year. Singapore's 0:16:29.130 --> 0:16:33.450 fertility rate first fell below 1.0 in 2023. 0:16:34.179 --> 0:16:39.000 And by the way, according to some numbers that our 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:44.070 team dug up, apparently, generally speaking, dragon your numbers are 0:16:44.070 --> 0:16:45.359 diminishing over time. 0:16:46.450 --> 0:16:49.809 Like, in general, it's just going down. Yeah, I mean 0:16:49.809 --> 0:16:51.330 if you were to compare one dragon year to another 0:16:51.330 --> 0:16:54.130 dragon year la, so in 1976 it was 2.11. 0:16:54.820 --> 0:16:59.460 1988, it was 1.96%, then it goes down to 1.6, 1.29, 0:16:59.500 --> 0:17:03.380 and now 0.97. So it's been declining. Whether or not 0:17:03.380 --> 0:17:05.819 it's higher than the other years, whether it's higher than monkey, 0:17:06.260 --> 0:17:09.010 I don't know. Uh, we didn't compare that. We've got 0:17:09.010 --> 0:17:12.060 many of your comments and your questions coming in being 0:17:12.060 --> 0:17:13.939 a part of the show as we ask you why 0:17:13.939 --> 0:17:18.660 didn't the dragon year boost Singapore's birth numbers. 0:17:19.239 --> 0:17:20.930 Uh, Ariel Lim is also joining us in the segment. 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.079 She's a mother of three. She'll be talking to us 0:17:23.079 --> 0:17:25.159 in just a moment, but one of our comments I 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.218 want to read out, our listener says you didn't leave 0:17:28.219 --> 0:17:30.199 your name, uh, let me scroll back, see if you 0:17:30.199 --> 0:17:34.229 left it before. No. OK, so your current comments states, 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.000 just 2 cycles is a change of a generation. How 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.389 many of us still actually follow strong Chinese culture? We're 0:17:40.390 --> 0:17:43.399 influenced by other ideologies. We have couples spending more on 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:45.439 pets than having a child at home. 0:17:45.979 --> 0:17:48.989 And also, how about looking at childbirth with reference to 0:17:48.989 --> 0:17:51.469 dragon parents. Not many of us became parents when we 0:17:51.469 --> 0:17:54.109 were 24, maybe only when we were 36. So yeah, 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.149 the age that you become a parent directly impacts how 0:17:58.150 --> 0:18:00.109 many kids you're going to have and whether you can 0:18:00.109 --> 0:18:04.619 hit that total replacement rate, which I believe is 2.7. Uh, 0:18:04.750 --> 0:18:07.310 let's go to Ariel Lim, mother of three, joining us 0:18:07.310 --> 0:18:08.430 right now. Hello, Ariel. 0:18:09.369 --> 0:18:14.770 Hello, hello. Hi. So, um, amongst your peer group, I'm 0:18:14.770 --> 0:18:18.639 curious and yourself as well, did the choice of year, 0:18:18.750 --> 0:18:21.349 for example, dragon year, impact your decision? 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.859 I would say I echo what the the previous uh 0:18:24.859 --> 0:18:28.569 comments said about how the zodiac doesn't really matter to, uh, 0:18:28.579 --> 0:18:31.020 my friends and I very much now. So I don't 0:18:31.020 --> 0:18:33.060 think we were like looking out for this year or 0:18:33.060 --> 0:18:34.780 I must give birth to a baby. No need to 0:18:34.780 --> 0:18:40.339 go and pick the definitely not, definitely not. Yeah, I 0:18:40.339 --> 0:18:42.300 would say that's way more common and and I guess 0:18:42.300 --> 0:18:43.079 my generation. 0:18:44.030 --> 0:18:48.050 30s and yeah. Was it easy for you to conceive? 0:18:48.209 --> 0:18:50.300 Did you struggle at all? Do you know of people 0:18:50.750 --> 0:18:53.109 who are trying to have kids but are struggling? Could 0:18:53.109 --> 0:18:55.829 that be another factor too? It's just more difficult to 0:18:55.829 --> 0:18:56.739 conceive these days. 0:18:57.959 --> 0:19:00.060 Yeah, it does seem like I do hear a lot 0:19:00.060 --> 0:19:03.270 more stories of people having trouble conceiving, although it could 0:19:03.270 --> 0:19:06.109 also be social media because, um, you know, these issues 0:19:06.109 --> 0:19:08.790 are people needing to go for IVF or uh assisted 0:19:08.790 --> 0:19:12.790 reproductive uh technologies. Uh, there's a lot more exposure and 0:19:12.790 --> 0:19:16.030 coverage of these issues also in the media, but so 0:19:16.030 --> 0:19:19.030 I wouldn't, yeah, I wouldn't know, you know, actual numbers 0:19:19.030 --> 0:19:21.949 in difficulty of conception, but, um. 0:19:22.270 --> 0:19:25.329 I do hear of people, I guess my age, we 0:19:25.329 --> 0:19:27.239 see a mix, a mixed group. I mean there are 0:19:27.239 --> 0:19:30.689 people who, you know, didn't plan and and then conceived, 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:32.410 and then we have those people who plan and plan 0:19:32.410 --> 0:19:35.530 and just really find a lot of trouble conceiving, yeah. 0:19:35.729 --> 0:19:39.930 So you're soon to be pregnant now. Yes, yes. Was 0:19:39.930 --> 0:19:42.569 there any hope that could have been a dragon? 0:19:43.670 --> 0:19:44.839 Uh, no, not at all. 0:19:46.459 --> 0:19:46.550 Yeah 0:19:48.380 --> 0:19:52.729 Time is what time is. 9 months is 9 months. Yeah, yeah, exactly. 0:19:53.060 --> 0:19:54.979 And are any of your other kids dragon babies by 0:19:54.979 --> 0:19:58.180 any chance? No, no. No, I don't actually know what 0:19:58.180 --> 0:20:01.579 I mean what they are, so yeah, it doesn't matter 0:20:01.579 --> 0:20:05.699 to the younger generation. Yeah, I really think not many 0:20:05.699 --> 0:20:07.819 people look at it. Did you have to convince mom 0:20:07.819 --> 0:20:08.978 and dad about that? 0:20:09.729 --> 0:20:11.770 Uh, no, my parents don't really look at it too, 0:20:11.849 --> 0:20:14.530 so I guess it's just, uh, it's also cultural for 0:20:14.530 --> 0:20:18.409 my family. And your thoughts as well, Ari, the Large 0:20:18.410 --> 0:20:22.130 family life HG initiative, which was announced just a couple 0:20:22.130 --> 0:20:25.280 of weeks ago by uh Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. 0:20:26.510 --> 0:20:27.359 Uh, so 0:20:28.540 --> 0:20:31.410 Uh, to be really honest, because he hyped it up at, uh, 0:20:31.420 --> 0:20:34.659 I think it was Edira last year, National Day rally. Uh, 0:20:34.739 --> 0:20:38.780 I really looked forward to it. Yeah, so, um, I 0:20:38.780 --> 0:20:40.188 mean when it came out, I was still very thankful, 0:20:40.260 --> 0:20:42.698 but I was, I was like, oh, OK, it's, it's 0:20:42.699 --> 0:20:46.030 more of in a handout scheme, which is good. I think, uh, 0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:48.160 the money really helps to cover delivery, etc. 0:20:48.660 --> 0:20:52.069