1 00:00:00,009 --> 00:00:02,279 Speaker 1: This is AC N A podcast. 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:05,849 Speaker 1: Hello, you're listening to C N A correspondent with me 3 00:00:05,860 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: Steve Lai. And in this episode, you'll hear everything you 4 00:00:08,810 --> 00:00:11,449 Speaker 1: need to know about the upcoming Thai election. 5 00:00:14,369 --> 00:00:17,690 Speaker 2: Thailand's parliament has been dissolved. Paving the way for the 6 00:00:17,700 --> 00:00:21,620 Speaker 2: country's upcoming elections in Thailand have some dates to mark 7 00:00:21,629 --> 00:00:25,020 Speaker 2: on their calendars. The country's election commission announced they will 8 00:00:25,030 --> 00:00:27,750 Speaker 2: go to the polls on May 14th. Election. Fever is 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,229 Speaker 2: heating up in Thailand as campaigning for the general election 10 00:00:31,239 --> 00:00:35,900 Speaker 2: has officially begun. We are doing our utmost but it 11 00:00:35,909 --> 00:00:36,918 Speaker 2: is also up to the 12 00:00:36,994 --> 00:00:39,735 Speaker 2: people to use their right to vote. The P Thai 13 00:00:39,744 --> 00:00:42,805 Speaker 2: party is moving ahead and we will go all out 14 00:00:42,814 --> 00:00:45,194 Speaker 2: in the days to come. What we have is the 15 00:00:45,205 --> 00:00:47,744 Speaker 2: proof that we have done our work is our new 16 00:00:47,755 --> 00:00:50,154 Speaker 2: candidates that have been on the ground all the time. 17 00:00:50,165 --> 00:00:53,564 Speaker 2: So I'm sure that we able to capitalize on the 18 00:00:53,575 --> 00:00:56,354 Speaker 2: gains of this election in terms of change. So we 19 00:00:56,365 --> 00:00:57,985 Speaker 2: are prepared for the change and we will be able 20 00:00:57,994 --> 00:00:59,404 Speaker 2: to make change happen. In Thailand 21 00:01:01,529 --> 00:01:04,259 Speaker 1: election buzz is definitely in the air and joining me 22 00:01:04,269 --> 00:01:06,378 Speaker 1: from Bangkok to break it All down for you is 23 00:01:06,470 --> 00:01:09,870 Speaker 1: Saks say Soba. Hey Saith. All right. Let's get started 24 00:01:09,879 --> 00:01:11,779 Speaker 1: with some quick facts. Then I'll find out the questions. 25 00:01:11,790 --> 00:01:13,819 Speaker 1: You give me the answers. When is the election happening 26 00:01:14,110 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: on Sunday? May 14th? Right? And it's the second election 27 00:01:16,809 --> 00:01:19,940 Speaker 1: since the coup in 2014. What's up for grabs? 500 28 00:01:19,949 --> 00:01:21,839 Speaker 1: seats in the lower house in the parliament and there 29 00:01:21,849 --> 00:01:22,559 Speaker 1: are more than six 30 00:01:22,629 --> 00:01:26,348 Speaker 1: 1000 candidates are running um, a coalition or a party 31 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,419 Speaker 1: that wants to go. They need um, at least 251 32 00:01:29,430 --> 00:01:31,819 Speaker 1: seats of them, but it's not as easy as it sounds. 33 00:01:31,830 --> 00:01:33,889 Speaker 1: We'll probably get to that a little bit later. Yes, 34 00:01:33,900 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: we certainly will. How many voters are we talking? About 35 00:01:36,419 --> 00:01:40,610 Speaker 1: 52 million eligible voters out of almost 70 million people 36 00:01:40,620 --> 00:01:43,660 Speaker 1: that live here in Thailand? There are 77 provinces 37 00:01:43,949 --> 00:01:46,599 Speaker 1: and about four million people are voting for the first 38 00:01:46,610 --> 00:01:48,989 Speaker 1: time in their lives. So, how many parties are there 39 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,599 Speaker 1: this time round? So, on the party list, there are 40 00:01:51,610 --> 00:01:55,290 Speaker 1: 67 parties in total. So that is definitely a lot 41 00:01:55,300 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: to choose from 42 00:02:00,849 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: now. We've got the nuts and bolts out of the way. 43 00:02:02,370 --> 00:02:05,389 Speaker 1: Let's dive into the issues and the candidates that are 44 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,580 Speaker 1: shaping this election. And I'd like to start with the incumbent. 45 00:02:08,589 --> 00:02:10,679 Speaker 1: Pray ja No, she, he's with a new party this 46 00:02:10,690 --> 00:02:13,779 Speaker 1: time around he is. But in order to understand general 47 00:02:13,788 --> 00:02:16,309 Speaker 1: pray chaos, we need to understand that he was a 48 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: former army chief. He came to power in 2014 with 49 00:02:20,089 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: a military coup and that has toppled any democratic 50 00:02:23,125 --> 00:02:26,925 Speaker 1: in government. He was re-elected as Prime Minister in the 51 00:02:26,934 --> 00:02:31,485 Speaker 1: last election in 2019 with one political vehicle. But due 52 00:02:31,494 --> 00:02:35,705 Speaker 1: to infighting and factual in that party, they basically broke up. 53 00:02:35,714 --> 00:02:39,225 Speaker 1: And that's why is now running under a new political 54 00:02:39,235 --> 00:02:42,764 Speaker 1: party under the so-called United Nation Party. And what's also 55 00:02:42,774 --> 00:02:45,145 Speaker 1: been very striking of Bray himself is, you know, 56 00:02:45,410 --> 00:02:49,279 Speaker 1: he's always portrayed himself as a stern and but also 57 00:02:49,288 --> 00:02:52,788 Speaker 1: reluctant Prime Minister. He says that needed to do a 58 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,859 Speaker 1: military coup. Otherwise things would have gone to the dogs, 59 00:02:56,059 --> 00:02:59,979 Speaker 1: but also that he was a reluctant politician. But now 60 00:02:59,990 --> 00:03:03,610 Speaker 1: during this campaign, we are now seeing this full transformation 61 00:03:03,619 --> 00:03:07,169 Speaker 1: of him from a stern military chief to a almost 62 00:03:07,179 --> 00:03:10,559 Speaker 1: folksy full time politician. Whether or not people will buy 63 00:03:10,570 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: that is a different matter. 64 00:03:12,038 --> 00:03:14,448 Speaker 1: Yes, as much as he says, he's reluctant. He does 65 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:18,269 Speaker 1: now seem rather reluctant to relinquish his position as a 66 00:03:18,279 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: Prime Minister. Uh let's talk about some of his main rivals. 67 00:03:20,929 --> 00:03:23,839 Speaker 1: Then there's a familiar family name in the mix as well. Indeed, 68 00:03:23,850 --> 00:03:26,889 Speaker 1: the main opposition party, the P Thai party is fielding 69 00:03:26,899 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: another family name member of the Shinawatra dynasty. Pa Da Shinawatra, 70 00:03:32,008 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: 36 years old, that is the youngest daughter of former 71 00:03:35,009 --> 00:03:37,250 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Thaksin who was ruled in the early two 72 00:03:37,259 --> 00:03:37,990 Speaker 1: thousands but 73 00:03:38,309 --> 00:03:41,220 Speaker 1: has lived in self exile for over a decade now. 74 00:03:41,229 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: She would be the third Shinawatra to become Prime Minister 75 00:03:45,369 --> 00:03:48,678 Speaker 1: after Thaksin, as I mentioned before, after Yingluck, which is 76 00:03:48,690 --> 00:03:51,990 Speaker 1: Patton Tan's aunt. And yeah, but she would also be 77 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: the youngest prime minister with just 36 years old and 78 00:03:54,809 --> 00:03:57,839 Speaker 1: she just has given birth to her second child. What's 79 00:03:57,850 --> 00:03:58,020 Speaker 1: also 80 00:03:58,119 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: interesting about the party is that they're carrying on the 81 00:04:01,889 --> 00:04:06,889 Speaker 1: legacy of Thaksin who has been classically speaking, very popular 82 00:04:06,899 --> 00:04:09,190 Speaker 1: with the rural folks in the north and north east, 83 00:04:09,410 --> 00:04:12,860 Speaker 1: but patent herself, she has zero experience when it comes 84 00:04:12,869 --> 00:04:16,750 Speaker 1: to politics whatsoever. And that's why it's fair to say 85 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:17,850 Speaker 1: that the party is more 86 00:04:18,269 --> 00:04:22,078 Speaker 1: banking on the family legacy name here and it, it 87 00:04:22,089 --> 00:04:24,579 Speaker 1: definitely seems to be working at those so far. And 88 00:04:24,589 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: what about in the last election? The party leader for 89 00:04:27,010 --> 00:04:31,149 Speaker 1: Future Forward Party. He had quite a large profile going 90 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,959 Speaker 1: into the last election but then post election, he was 91 00:04:33,970 --> 00:04:36,958 Speaker 1: subsequently sidelined. Is he around? What's he up to? 92 00:04:37,230 --> 00:04:40,660 Speaker 1: He's around but he's disqualified because the party, the future 93 00:04:40,670 --> 00:04:43,649 Speaker 1: four Party which is a for Thai stands radically liberally 94 00:04:43,660 --> 00:04:47,399 Speaker 1: progressive political party that has gained a lot of support 95 00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:50,299 Speaker 1: among the young folks. The party has been dissolved in 96 00:04:50,309 --> 00:04:53,970 Speaker 1: three years ago under some very dubious charges, but nevertheless, 97 00:04:53,980 --> 00:04:57,209 Speaker 1: there has been a success party called the Party. Tara 98 00:04:57,529 --> 00:05:00,309 Speaker 1: is not the leader anymore. There's somebody else, somebody called 99 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,299 Speaker 1: Peter Lim, also a very young man. Ivy 100 00:05:03,785 --> 00:05:07,203 Speaker 1: League educated former grab executive here in Thailand and he's 101 00:05:07,214 --> 00:05:09,885 Speaker 1: carrying the torch, he's continuing to carrying the torch and 102 00:05:09,894 --> 00:05:14,204 Speaker 1: for liberal progressive policies and also for a change in 103 00:05:14,214 --> 00:05:17,744 Speaker 1: Thai politics and it still draws in a very young crowd. Ok. 104 00:05:17,755 --> 00:05:20,855 Speaker 1: So faces sort of two young challenges if you like. 105 00:05:20,863 --> 00:05:23,575 Speaker 1: Are there any other contenders that we should know about? Well, 106 00:05:23,584 --> 00:05:25,734 Speaker 1: I mean, I said before that broke off from his 107 00:05:25,744 --> 00:05:29,183 Speaker 1: former party. So his Deputy Prime Minister Wong won 108 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,130 Speaker 1: who is basically a brother in arms to pray. I mean, 109 00:05:33,140 --> 00:05:35,678 Speaker 1: there there was the agreement between these two that would 110 00:05:35,690 --> 00:05:38,219 Speaker 1: be the Prime Minister do all the government business while 111 00:05:38,230 --> 00:05:40,170 Speaker 1: Pravit who has also been part of the coup at 112 00:05:40,178 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 1: that time would oversee the political party. But as I 113 00:05:43,290 --> 00:05:46,769 Speaker 1: said before, the factionalism between two camps had led to 114 00:05:46,779 --> 00:05:50,619 Speaker 1: this breakup. Now Pravit Wong. So one is a 76 115 00:05:50,630 --> 00:05:53,609 Speaker 1: year old man who doesn't look like he's the fittest 116 00:05:53,619 --> 00:05:54,750 Speaker 1: man if I'm being very 117 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,260 Speaker 1: honest, but he's also now leading the party and also 118 00:05:58,269 --> 00:06:01,269 Speaker 1: tries to portray himself as somebody who is going to 119 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: overcome and bridge all the divisions of the political polarization 120 00:06:05,049 --> 00:06:07,549 Speaker 1: that we have in the past 20 years, even though 121 00:06:07,559 --> 00:06:10,989 Speaker 1: he has part of the military faction that has launched 122 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,450 Speaker 1: this coup. And some might say also created all these 123 00:06:13,459 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: political problems in the first place. Again, another rebranding where 124 00:06:17,010 --> 00:06:19,250 Speaker 1: it remains to be seen if voters are buying that 125 00:06:19,260 --> 00:06:19,950 Speaker 1: one way 126 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,649 Speaker 1: that in some countries, we have an understanding of where 127 00:06:22,660 --> 00:06:25,339 Speaker 1: all these candidates are is through polling. You know, we 128 00:06:25,350 --> 00:06:28,220 Speaker 1: follow us politics, we know who's in the lead or 129 00:06:28,230 --> 00:06:30,989 Speaker 1: who's thought to be in the lead. They're not always accurate. 130 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,109 Speaker 1: Of course, does Thailand have that sort of thing? How 131 00:06:33,119 --> 00:06:34,950 Speaker 1: do we know or how do we get a sense 132 00:06:34,959 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: of the general thinking of who the main front runners 133 00:06:37,049 --> 00:06:39,579 Speaker 1: are and how they're performing. We have opinion polling here 134 00:06:39,589 --> 00:06:43,140 Speaker 1: in Thailand, but I personally have been always allergic to 135 00:06:43,149 --> 00:06:45,149 Speaker 1: that to, to put it mildly 136 00:06:45,380 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: because methodologically they have been sometimes too, the sample size 137 00:06:49,450 --> 00:06:52,500 Speaker 1: is sometimes too small. The questions have been sometimes very leading. 138 00:06:52,510 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: So this is the reason why in my line of 139 00:06:55,209 --> 00:06:58,169 Speaker 1: work in my journalistic reporting, I always try to avoid 140 00:06:58,178 --> 00:07:00,980 Speaker 1: to do opinion polling. I mean, of course, that what 141 00:07:00,988 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: else do you have to get a glimpse and get 142 00:07:03,369 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: a sense of that? I mean, there's definitely one phenomenon 143 00:07:06,329 --> 00:07:09,100 Speaker 1: in this election cycle that I find very interesting with 144 00:07:09,109 --> 00:07:11,420 Speaker 1: opinion polls and not so much what goes into the 145 00:07:11,429 --> 00:07:12,809 Speaker 1: opinion polls. So as in 146 00:07:12,959 --> 00:07:14,970 Speaker 1: what people are saying to these opinion polls, what the 147 00:07:14,980 --> 00:07:18,119 Speaker 1: effect that the opinion polls are creating once they're being published. 148 00:07:18,130 --> 00:07:21,399 Speaker 1: And these opinion polls, if they are to be believed, 149 00:07:21,410 --> 00:07:26,019 Speaker 1: they are giving the opposition and move forward a resounding 150 00:07:26,029 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: lead at the moment and all the established coalition parties, 151 00:07:28,890 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: the ruling parties, they are not looking very well right now. 152 00:07:31,170 --> 00:07:31,420 Speaker 1: And 153 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,019 Speaker 1: this is creating a hype in the media cycle right 154 00:07:34,029 --> 00:07:36,380 Speaker 1: now and among the parties themselves and so much so 155 00:07:36,390 --> 00:07:39,630 Speaker 1: that it is almost becoming a self fulfilling prophecy right now. 156 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,119 Speaker 1: Of course, too early to say at this point. But 157 00:07:42,130 --> 00:07:46,130 Speaker 1: there's definitely a hype and a momentum that's building partially 158 00:07:46,140 --> 00:07:47,429 Speaker 1: because of these opinion polls. 159 00:07:48,010 --> 00:07:49,429 Speaker 1: And I suppose some way to see it is with 160 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,929 Speaker 1: your own eyes anecdotally though it may be when you're 161 00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: out and about attending these rallies. Getting a sense on 162 00:07:54,730 --> 00:07:58,119 Speaker 1: the ground of how excited people are for their respective candidates. 163 00:07:58,130 --> 00:08:00,850 Speaker 1: Give us a picture of what campaign season in Thailand 164 00:08:00,859 --> 00:08:04,019 Speaker 1: looks like. There are two very distinct types of campaigning 165 00:08:04,029 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: here in Thailand. There's the canvassing that is basically when 166 00:08:07,329 --> 00:08:11,220 Speaker 1: the candidates being the constitution candidates or the top party, 167 00:08:11,230 --> 00:08:12,899 Speaker 1: big bosses are walking up 168 00:08:13,011 --> 00:08:16,441 Speaker 1: out in communities like markets and, and something like that 169 00:08:16,451 --> 00:08:19,191 Speaker 1: and meeting voters shaking hands, kissing babies, you know, the 170 00:08:19,201 --> 00:08:23,141 Speaker 1: usual handing out leaflets and trying to basically make themselves 171 00:08:23,152 --> 00:08:28,062 Speaker 1: known to the electorate. Yes, show the presence saying that 172 00:08:28,111 --> 00:08:30,182 Speaker 1: this is the guy who you're supposed to vote for 173 00:08:30,191 --> 00:08:32,442 Speaker 1: and I do this and that and maybe, you know, 174 00:08:32,452 --> 00:08:34,452 Speaker 1: he a chit chat here and there and that is 175 00:08:34,461 --> 00:08:37,421 Speaker 1: exactly what I meant before that with um Prime Minister 176 00:08:38,013 --> 00:08:43,174 Speaker 1: trying to portray himself as a folksy, approachable politician as 177 00:08:43,184 --> 00:08:46,463 Speaker 1: in the unapproachable military general that he used to be 178 00:08:46,473 --> 00:08:49,213 Speaker 1: and so tell us about the rallies, the rallies are, 179 00:08:49,223 --> 00:08:52,424 Speaker 1: you know, the big events, of course, there are sometimes thousands, 180 00:08:52,434 --> 00:08:55,254 Speaker 1: if not even 10 thousands of people being bussed to 181 00:08:55,263 --> 00:08:59,054 Speaker 1: these events around the country where you have a big stage, 182 00:08:59,064 --> 00:09:01,734 Speaker 1: you have a lot of supporters there. And again, this 183 00:09:01,744 --> 00:09:02,903 Speaker 1: is also where you have the big 184 00:09:03,015 --> 00:09:05,526 Speaker 1: speeches by all the candidates and all the big um 185 00:09:05,535 --> 00:09:08,356 Speaker 1: big parties as well. And this is where they, for example, 186 00:09:08,366 --> 00:09:11,944 Speaker 1: make very broad promises to like. This is, these are 187 00:09:11,955 --> 00:09:13,806 Speaker 1: the campaigns that we, that we are running on. This 188 00:09:13,815 --> 00:09:15,856 Speaker 1: is the platform that we are running on. If you 189 00:09:15,866 --> 00:09:17,616 Speaker 1: vote for us, we're gonna do this and that. So 190 00:09:17,625 --> 00:09:21,226 Speaker 1: this is also another way to rile up support for, 191 00:09:21,236 --> 00:09:24,785 Speaker 1: for the voter base. And it's very fascinating when you go, 192 00:09:24,796 --> 00:09:27,925 Speaker 1: especially outside of Bangkok into the rural folks here that 193 00:09:28,169 --> 00:09:30,900 Speaker 1: you know that how they are trying to uh customize 194 00:09:30,909 --> 00:09:34,450 Speaker 1: themselves to the local sensitivities either and they are trying 195 00:09:34,460 --> 00:09:37,059 Speaker 1: to talk in a dialect of that region, for example, 196 00:09:37,070 --> 00:09:40,309 Speaker 1: or to speak to topics that are more closer to 197 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,098 Speaker 1: that electorate, rural folks. For example, they want to talk 198 00:09:43,109 --> 00:09:46,390 Speaker 1: about agriculture, they want to talk about economic hardships rather 199 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,909 Speaker 1: than the urban votes here in back. They want to 200 00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: talk more about how anti-corruption 201 00:09:50,950 --> 00:09:54,890 Speaker 1: campaigns or more ideological platforms and we're coming out of 202 00:09:54,900 --> 00:09:57,330 Speaker 1: the pandemic life is sort of returning to normal the 203 00:09:57,340 --> 00:10:00,609 Speaker 1: last election in 2019 was pre pandemic. So what's on voters' 204 00:10:00,619 --> 00:10:03,349 Speaker 1: minds now? It must be about what's going to be 205 00:10:03,359 --> 00:10:06,488 Speaker 1: coming forward for Thailand and for their people and, and 206 00:10:06,500 --> 00:10:09,718 Speaker 1: how are the different candidates campaigning on these different issues? 207 00:10:09,729 --> 00:10:11,739 Speaker 1: As you said, it is an election campaign that is 208 00:10:11,750 --> 00:10:13,609 Speaker 1: still in the shadow of the pandemic, 209 00:10:13,729 --> 00:10:16,489 Speaker 1: the economic fallout of it. We all know that Thailand 210 00:10:16,500 --> 00:10:18,650 Speaker 1: is one of the countries that has, have come out 211 00:10:18,659 --> 00:10:22,020 Speaker 1: of the pandemic with a bit of an economic slump 212 00:10:22,030 --> 00:10:24,219 Speaker 1: and it, it's not as good as it as it be, 213 00:10:24,229 --> 00:10:27,340 Speaker 1: especially when it comes to economic growth. And that is 214 00:10:27,349 --> 00:10:30,380 Speaker 1: where the political parties are trying to tap in right now. 215 00:10:30,390 --> 00:10:33,270 Speaker 1: And they are trying to promise all kinds of different 216 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,419 Speaker 1: cash handouts or debt relief as well. 217 00:10:36,599 --> 00:10:39,909 Speaker 1: And that is maybe something that is noteworthy that all 218 00:10:39,919 --> 00:10:43,119 Speaker 1: political parties no matter on which side they were, they 219 00:10:43,130 --> 00:10:46,549 Speaker 1: are trying to overbid themselves with populist cash handouts. It's 220 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,239 Speaker 1: almost a matter of how many zeros attached to them. 221 00:10:49,250 --> 00:10:52,718 Speaker 1: And that is something that is very interesting because all 222 00:10:52,729 --> 00:10:55,489 Speaker 1: the parties that have been part of the past ruling coalition, 223 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,340 Speaker 1: a dozen of them, but mainly the main parties like 224 00:10:58,349 --> 00:10:59,218 Speaker 1: a handful of them. 225 00:10:59,669 --> 00:11:03,039 Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to distinguish between these parties because 226 00:11:03,049 --> 00:11:05,358 Speaker 1: they have been all part of the same government over 227 00:11:05,369 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 1: the past four years. And they are also trying to 228 00:11:07,849 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: claim credit for all the achievements that that government has 229 00:11:10,969 --> 00:11:13,450 Speaker 1: done for the past four years. But now they are 230 00:11:13,460 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: saying like, no, no, actually it was us. Who did that? 231 00:11:15,409 --> 00:11:18,270 Speaker 1: Not the other chumps. We did all the good things 232 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,250 Speaker 1: and they did all the bad things. Is that, is 233 00:11:20,260 --> 00:11:22,289 Speaker 1: that the line? Exactly. It's like I get all the 234 00:11:22,299 --> 00:11:24,359 Speaker 1: credit and everybody else gets the blame. 235 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 1: Wonderful. It's gonna make it very tough for voters to 236 00:11:28,609 --> 00:11:31,229 Speaker 1: sift through all of that and to make sense of it. 237 00:11:31,239 --> 00:11:33,650 Speaker 1: Uh We're glad to have you with us. Do stay 238 00:11:33,659 --> 00:11:36,179 Speaker 1: with us though. When we come back, we'll talk about 239 00:11:36,190 --> 00:11:40,369 Speaker 1: the influential forces outside of parliamentary rules that also hold 240 00:11:40,380 --> 00:11:41,900 Speaker 1: a lot of sway in Thailand. 241 00:11:48,090 --> 00:11:50,900 Speaker 2: Hi, my name is Julie Yu and I'm the host 242 00:11:50,909 --> 00:11:54,590 Speaker 2: of the Climate Conversations. Each week, I speak to guests 243 00:11:54,599 --> 00:11:57,130 Speaker 2: who give us tips on how we can protect the 244 00:11:57,140 --> 00:12:00,478 Speaker 2: earth every once in a while. We also have interesting 245 00:12:00,489 --> 00:12:04,979 Speaker 2: stories like how Singapore's first Tesla owner prompted billionaire 246 00:12:05,049 --> 00:12:07,780 Speaker 2: Elon Musk to reach out to Prime Minister Li Xin 247 00:12:08,409 --> 00:12:12,090 Speaker 2: or a chef who makes the juiciest burgers from only 248 00:12:12,099 --> 00:12:16,140 Speaker 2: plant based ingredients. For more stories like these, look for 249 00:12:16,150 --> 00:12:18,819 Speaker 2: the climate conversations on our C N A and me 250 00:12:18,890 --> 00:12:21,900 Speaker 2: listen apps or wherever you get your podcasts. 251 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,299 Speaker 1: Welcome back. You're listening to C N A correspondent as 252 00:12:29,309 --> 00:12:32,150 Speaker 1: we preview the upcoming Thai election with Sasia say Soba 253 00:12:32,369 --> 00:12:35,750 Speaker 1: and we're still very much in the thick of a campaigning, 254 00:12:36,090 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: but we've talked about that. So let's move on to 255 00:12:38,330 --> 00:12:41,729 Speaker 1: the next topic. Sais the military has long been a 256 00:12:41,739 --> 00:12:44,218 Speaker 1: feature in Thai politics. Prime Minister Praya Ja No, she 257 00:12:44,239 --> 00:12:46,780 Speaker 1: came to power as a result of the 2014 coup, 258 00:12:46,789 --> 00:12:48,049 Speaker 1: as you mentioned earlier, 259 00:12:48,299 --> 00:12:51,309 Speaker 1: which was in fact the 13th, since the country's first 260 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,330 Speaker 1: coup way back in 1932. So what space or influence 261 00:12:55,340 --> 00:12:57,270 Speaker 1: does the military occupy now? And I want to add 262 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,369 Speaker 1: this was the 13th successful military coup. There have been 263 00:13:00,380 --> 00:13:03,799 Speaker 1: a couple more that have been unsuccessful as well. The 264 00:13:03,809 --> 00:13:08,329 Speaker 1: rationale of the military coup in both 2014 and 2006 265 00:13:08,340 --> 00:13:12,590 Speaker 1: was that, you know, parliamentary politics and political parties didn't work. 266 00:13:12,599 --> 00:13:15,919 Speaker 1: So that's why the military had to intervene. The thought 267 00:13:15,929 --> 00:13:17,690 Speaker 1: behind the last coup was also that 268 00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:20,478 Speaker 1: this was supposed to be the coup to end all 269 00:13:20,489 --> 00:13:24,159 Speaker 1: coups because we all know that the military government stuck 270 00:13:24,169 --> 00:13:26,569 Speaker 1: around for quite a couple of years and they had 271 00:13:26,580 --> 00:13:29,309 Speaker 1: plenty of time to rewrite the rules. They brought in 272 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,489 Speaker 1: a new constitution, they reduced the powers of elected officials 273 00:13:33,500 --> 00:13:37,359 Speaker 1: and gave more powers to unelected officials to so-called and 274 00:13:37,369 --> 00:13:41,330 Speaker 1: governmental and agencies that over that are supposed to keep 275 00:13:41,340 --> 00:13:45,739 Speaker 1: parliament in check. And there is right now from what 276 00:13:45,750 --> 00:13:47,549 Speaker 1: we are hearing and from what we are seeing 277 00:13:47,799 --> 00:13:52,109 Speaker 1: very little appetite by the military themselves to intervene in 278 00:13:52,119 --> 00:13:56,409 Speaker 1: politics because you know, you have two military leaders in 279 00:13:56,419 --> 00:13:59,159 Speaker 1: the political parties as well with Prime Minister Shah and 280 00:13:59,169 --> 00:14:02,059 Speaker 1: General Prawit won one. But then on the other hand, 281 00:14:02,169 --> 00:14:05,039 Speaker 1: they are not completely tone deaf, they definitely know uh 282 00:14:05,049 --> 00:14:07,270 Speaker 1: what's going on as well. And they also know that 283 00:14:07,580 --> 00:14:12,229 Speaker 1: if they intervene in politics and remove a government that 284 00:14:12,239 --> 00:14:16,069 Speaker 1: has been very popular for very thin reasons, of course, 285 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,469 Speaker 1: then you would have street protests on it again. But 286 00:14:18,479 --> 00:14:18,770 Speaker 1: then 287 00:14:19,159 --> 00:14:22,630 Speaker 1: it's a sad truth in Thailand that military coups can 288 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,059 Speaker 1: never be put out of the question. The risks can 289 00:14:25,070 --> 00:14:27,950 Speaker 1: be high or very low but never at zero that 290 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:30,830 Speaker 1: a military coup may or may not happen in Thailand. 291 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,419 Speaker 1: And this is also goes to show that the whole 292 00:14:33,429 --> 00:14:37,710 Speaker 1: power structure in Thailand, there are forces outside of parliament 293 00:14:37,719 --> 00:14:41,179 Speaker 1: that are outside of these typical democratic checks and balances 294 00:14:41,190 --> 00:14:43,109 Speaker 1: and that the voters have no influence. 295 00:14:43,184 --> 00:14:47,234 Speaker 1: And especially when the military sees itself as the protector 296 00:14:47,244 --> 00:14:50,705 Speaker 1: of the monarchy of the very sacro institution. Then that's 297 00:14:50,715 --> 00:14:54,135 Speaker 1: where things get even more complicated than that. But then 298 00:14:54,145 --> 00:14:56,655 Speaker 1: also on the other hand, one thing that I have 299 00:14:56,664 --> 00:15:00,094 Speaker 1: definitely noticed is there's a certain sense of fatigue over 300 00:15:00,104 --> 00:15:04,265 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Tan. He's been in power since 2014. It's 301 00:15:04,275 --> 00:15:06,554 Speaker 1: over eight or almost nine years now. At this point, 302 00:15:06,565 --> 00:15:07,135 Speaker 1: he 303 00:15:07,369 --> 00:15:10,270 Speaker 1: his constitutional term limit will um will run out in 304 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,739 Speaker 1: two years. So if he runs again, he will always 305 00:15:12,750 --> 00:15:15,460 Speaker 1: stick around for half a term. It's he's almost running 306 00:15:15,469 --> 00:15:18,049 Speaker 1: as a lame duck at this point. So there is 307 00:15:18,059 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: some opinion amongst the voters that it's time for a change. 308 00:15:21,969 --> 00:15:24,070 Speaker 1: It's time for somebody else to, to take the helm 309 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,909 Speaker 1: and see how they can steer this country forward. Sa 310 00:15:27,090 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: the last big military coup was in 2014. 311 00:15:29,083 --> 00:15:32,043 Speaker 1: Team. What's in the fallout from that? The military coup 312 00:15:32,052 --> 00:15:36,263 Speaker 1: brought in a new constitution and the new playbook, so 313 00:15:36,273 --> 00:15:38,533 Speaker 1: to speak under which Thai politics is being played under. 314 00:15:38,543 --> 00:15:41,533 Speaker 1: And one of the legacies of the military coup is 315 00:15:41,543 --> 00:15:45,372 Speaker 1: the upper house, the Senate. So it is has 250 members, 316 00:15:45,382 --> 00:15:48,333 Speaker 1: but they were all appointed by the previous military government. 317 00:15:48,343 --> 00:15:50,713 Speaker 1: And that builds a conundrum for, 318 00:15:50,796 --> 00:15:54,286 Speaker 1: for any party, for any government that wants to form 319 00:15:54,296 --> 00:15:56,906 Speaker 1: a coalition in the parliament. Because the vote for the 320 00:15:56,916 --> 00:16:01,075 Speaker 1: Prime Minister is a joint assembly between both chambers, 500 321 00:16:01,085 --> 00:16:07,065 Speaker 1: elected MP S 250 appointed senators. So that's 750 people. 322 00:16:07,145 --> 00:16:10,755 Speaker 1: But if you assume that all these 250 senators vote 323 00:16:10,765 --> 00:16:12,406 Speaker 1: on bloc, they vote the same, 324 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,820 Speaker 1: then you only need a third of all MP S 325 00:16:15,830 --> 00:16:19,210 Speaker 1: in order to beat out everybody else. So that is 326 00:16:19,219 --> 00:16:21,809 Speaker 1: why you might end up with a prime minister that 327 00:16:21,820 --> 00:16:24,390 Speaker 1: the people didn't vote for last time around. This is 328 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:28,710 Speaker 1: how Prime Minister secured his victory and by building up 329 00:16:28,719 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: a grand of a coalition but also having 250 senators 330 00:16:32,330 --> 00:16:35,890 Speaker 1: in his pocket. However, this time around, it's not quite 331 00:16:35,900 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: as clear cut because from what we know is that 332 00:16:38,890 --> 00:16:40,580 Speaker 1: the senators themselves are pretty split 333 00:16:40,864 --> 00:16:42,835 Speaker 1: about what they're going to do. Are they going to 334 00:16:42,844 --> 00:16:45,695 Speaker 1: vote in bra again? Are they going to support somebody else? 335 00:16:45,705 --> 00:16:48,234 Speaker 1: And a lot of them are actually totally undecided because 336 00:16:48,244 --> 00:16:51,934 Speaker 1: one thing is for sure, this is the last year, 337 00:16:51,945 --> 00:16:54,405 Speaker 1: the last year of this term of the Senate. And 338 00:16:54,414 --> 00:16:57,275 Speaker 1: also the, the very last time that the Senate will 339 00:16:57,284 --> 00:17:00,395 Speaker 1: actually have a say in the Prime Minister's vote. Some 340 00:17:00,405 --> 00:17:03,994 Speaker 1: of these senators we know are looking to the future 341 00:17:04,005 --> 00:17:07,274 Speaker 1: and that future might end up with the political party. 342 00:17:07,285 --> 00:17:08,755 Speaker 1: So that's why they are trying to, 343 00:17:08,979 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 1: you know, make good with the political parties and they 344 00:17:11,650 --> 00:17:14,790 Speaker 1: are really considering themselves like who they're going to pick for. 345 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,599 Speaker 1: So this is why we're going to have a very 346 00:17:16,609 --> 00:17:20,060 Speaker 1: divided Senate, a very split Senate as much as the 347 00:17:20,069 --> 00:17:23,679 Speaker 1: parliamentarians themselves are split on this. Uh Does it add 348 00:17:23,689 --> 00:17:26,949 Speaker 1: to the intrigue, doesn't it where everyone jostling for their 349 00:17:26,959 --> 00:17:29,989 Speaker 1: potential futures? I'm not gonna ask you for a prediction 350 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,270 Speaker 1: then because it sounds incredibly complicated, 351 00:17:32,550 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: but perhaps give our listeners some things to look out 352 00:17:35,290 --> 00:17:37,910 Speaker 1: for in the coming days and during the election itself, 353 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,669 Speaker 1: what will you be looking to see? I want to 354 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: look to see. Well, first of all, I would not 355 00:17:42,410 --> 00:17:46,319 Speaker 1: bet any money on any outcome whatsoever. Um That would 356 00:17:46,329 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: be a bad deal. What I'm looking out for on 357 00:17:48,930 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: election day 358 00:17:49,645 --> 00:17:53,915 Speaker 1: is really how much the opposition, especially the Thai Party, 359 00:17:53,925 --> 00:17:56,074 Speaker 1: how many seats are they going to get? They have 360 00:17:56,084 --> 00:18:00,104 Speaker 1: been clamoring and have been basically shouting or demanding a 361 00:18:00,114 --> 00:18:03,935 Speaker 1: landslide victory. They have their, their target is a lofty 362 00:18:03,944 --> 00:18:06,655 Speaker 1: 310 seats out of 500 so 363 00:18:07,050 --> 00:18:10,349 Speaker 1: an absolute majority, so to speak according to our analysis. 364 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: And according to our projections, that is that they are 365 00:18:12,290 --> 00:18:14,409 Speaker 1: most likely going to miss that. So that's why they 366 00:18:14,420 --> 00:18:18,060 Speaker 1: need coalition partners. They need to form partners with other 367 00:18:18,069 --> 00:18:20,780 Speaker 1: political parties. And then the big horse trading starts like 368 00:18:20,790 --> 00:18:22,139 Speaker 1: who are they going to 369 00:18:22,324 --> 00:18:25,435 Speaker 1: bet with? What concession each party is ready to make? 370 00:18:25,444 --> 00:18:28,074 Speaker 1: What chunk of the pie are they willing to give? 371 00:18:28,084 --> 00:18:31,313 Speaker 1: What ministry portfolios do? They have to give to the 372 00:18:31,324 --> 00:18:33,343 Speaker 1: smaller parties to keep them happy and to keep them 373 00:18:33,354 --> 00:18:35,583 Speaker 1: on board. So these are the things that happen at 374 00:18:35,594 --> 00:18:37,515 Speaker 1: every election. But this time around, 375 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,939 Speaker 1: there's also the question of whether or not there's a 376 00:18:39,949 --> 00:18:43,829 Speaker 1: strong enough coalition to lock out Prime Minister Prayut, no. 377 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,429 Speaker 1: But then again, the progression is, for example, also, will 378 00:18:47,439 --> 00:18:50,540 Speaker 1: the liberal progressive move forward be part of this or 379 00:18:50,550 --> 00:18:52,770 Speaker 1: are they going to be idealistic enough and 380 00:18:52,859 --> 00:18:55,770 Speaker 1: say no, we will not compromise on our ideals. So 381 00:18:55,780 --> 00:18:59,209 Speaker 1: we'd rather stay in opposition than to go into a 382 00:18:59,219 --> 00:19:03,250 Speaker 1: government and betray our ideals. So these are many different 383 00:19:03,260 --> 00:19:06,050 Speaker 1: storylines that we have to look out for on election day. 384 00:19:06,060 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: But to be very honest with you, 385 00:19:08,239 --> 00:19:11,410 Speaker 1: the election and campaign itself is one thing, but more importantly, 386 00:19:11,420 --> 00:19:13,869 Speaker 1: and that's one thing. What I'm looking forward to is 387 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,479 Speaker 1: all the coalition negotiations and the horse trading that will 388 00:19:16,489 --> 00:19:19,060 Speaker 1: happen after that. And that can take weeks and until 389 00:19:19,069 --> 00:19:21,099 Speaker 1: we have a new government form that can still take 390 00:19:21,109 --> 00:19:23,699 Speaker 1: a couple of months. I'm so glad that we have 391 00:19:23,709 --> 00:19:25,949 Speaker 1: you with us to talk us through these things and 392 00:19:25,959 --> 00:19:27,170 Speaker 1: to help us make sense of it. I know you're 393 00:19:27,180 --> 00:19:29,609 Speaker 1: gonna be very busy in the lead up and even 394 00:19:29,619 --> 00:19:32,599 Speaker 1: as you say, it won't end after election day, there 395 00:19:32,609 --> 00:19:35,208 Speaker 1: could be a lot more twists and turns that will 396 00:19:35,219 --> 00:19:35,989 Speaker 1: need to keep up to 397 00:19:36,064 --> 00:19:38,744 Speaker 1: speed with. So where's the best place for our listeners 398 00:19:38,755 --> 00:19:41,395 Speaker 1: then to follow you directly for updates and to keep 399 00:19:41,405 --> 00:19:43,554 Speaker 1: on top of all things in, in Thailand. I know 400 00:19:43,564 --> 00:19:46,525 Speaker 1: you're pretty active on Twitter. Yes, indeed. Twitter is definitely 401 00:19:46,535 --> 00:19:49,204 Speaker 1: the best place to check for all the updates and 402 00:19:49,214 --> 00:19:51,594 Speaker 1: also all the nerdy stuff that doesn't make on air. 403 00:19:51,604 --> 00:19:54,444 Speaker 1: And what's your handle? My handle is Sait C N 404 00:19:54,454 --> 00:19:56,994 Speaker 1: A S A K si T H C N A. 405 00:19:57,005 --> 00:19:59,073 Speaker 1: All right. Awesome. Thanks so much for your time today. 406 00:19:59,084 --> 00:20:01,795 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. Always a pleasure to know about, 407 00:20:01,805 --> 00:20:03,805 Speaker 1: about Thai politics. Never dull moment 408 00:20:04,140 --> 00:20:07,188 Speaker 1: and we'll probably need part two. I guess we certainly will. 409 00:20:08,849 --> 00:20:11,689 Speaker 1: Listening to Saks. I can't help but think how complex 410 00:20:11,699 --> 00:20:15,060 Speaker 1: Thai politics is. It's a democracy in a country with 411 00:20:15,069 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: influential forces outside parliamentary rules that is willing to both 412 00:20:19,369 --> 00:20:23,410 Speaker 1: seize and relinquish powers. In fact, this 2023 election will 413 00:20:23,420 --> 00:20:25,438 Speaker 1: see a former military man try to hold on to 414 00:20:25,449 --> 00:20:28,660 Speaker 1: democratic power and the daughter of a former Prime Minister 415 00:20:28,670 --> 00:20:31,369 Speaker 1: that was toppled by the military to try and take 416 00:20:31,380 --> 00:20:34,310 Speaker 1: it back. I have no idea what will happen but 417 00:20:34,319 --> 00:20:35,729 Speaker 1: I do know that the team at C N A 418 00:20:35,739 --> 00:20:38,179 Speaker 1: will be covering it every step of the way. 419 00:20:38,619 --> 00:20:40,969 Speaker 1: The TV version C N A correspondent airs on C 420 00:20:40,979 --> 00:20:43,579 Speaker 1: N A every Wednesday at 9 30 PM. You can 421 00:20:43,589 --> 00:20:45,270 Speaker 1: also watch it whenever you like on C N A 422 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,479 Speaker 1: dot Asia do like and subscribe to this podcast version 423 00:20:48,489 --> 00:20:51,140 Speaker 1: that takes you behind the scenes with our correspondence. It's 424 00:20:51,150 --> 00:20:54,729 Speaker 1: available wherever you get your audio content. Thank you for listening. 425 00:20:55,369 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 1: Our podcast team is made up of Wind Christina Robert 426 00:20:58,650 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 1: Clara Ong and Me Steve.