WEBVTT - The Big Weekend Pod 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.760 Welcome to today's podcast, sponsored by Hillsdale College All Things 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.440 hillsdalet Hillsdale dot ed or. I encourage you to take 0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:08.920 advantage of the many free online courses there, and of 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:11.280 course I'll listen to the Hillsdale dialogues, all of them 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.560 at Hugh for Hillsdale dot com or just Google, Apple 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:19.319 iTunes and Hillsdale mornin Glory and even Grace. Welcome to 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:22.239 the Big Weekend Pod America. Sorry I missed last week. 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:25.040 I was traveling from west coast to east coast and 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.760 hardly anything that's going on, not kidding. We're in the 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:29.080 middle of a war. We're in the middle of a 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:31.520 war that, as you will hear in the conversation today, 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:35.160 could change the next thirty to fifty maybe even one 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:39.160 hundred years of life on this globe, certainly the lives 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.080 of your children and of your grandchildren. It's that important. 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:45.080 The stakes are that high. That's why I'm talking with 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.440 John Ellison, Matt Conteney and Ben Dominic and Eli Lake 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:50.960 all about what those stakes are and how best to 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.760 understand this war. But if anyone tells you that we're 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:57.760 not winning, they're wrong. We are winning. We haven't won 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:00.920 but we are winning. No one tells you that the 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:06.560 Straits of Hormuz is an insolvable military conundrum. That's simply 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.880 not true. There, I mean, far worse conundrum in the 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:13.119 history of military conflict. Will solve it. We will get 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.720 it done. What you shouldn't believe as well is that 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:19.880 there's an easy path to victory because the Islamic Revolution 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.800 is organized to break into small pieces and do the 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:27.559 insurgency thing with missiles, So even on its worst day, 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.119 it's going to be around for a long time. Good 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:32.480 news is all we have to do is secure this 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:35.360 trait of hor moves. The rest is up to the 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:39.720 Iranian people. With that said, let's turn to our first guest, 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:43.480 John Ellis. After that, Eli Lake, Matt Contneti, Ben Dominicic, 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.800 enjoy this Weekend in Review at a big weekend Pod, 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:52.000 and thank you for listening. I'm Morning Glory and evening 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.960 Grace in America. I'm Hugh hewittt of the Weekend Review. 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:57.200 Show has begun and we begin it as we do 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:01.640 most weeks, with John Ellis, the editor and founder of 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.600 News Items. He one stopped shopping center in the morning 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.200 at six am for all the news of the day, 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:09.560 and each week John sends me a few stories that 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:11.920 we should go over, and he begins with number one, 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:14.720 the host plan. Now, John Richard Hass has been on 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.200 this program every time he's done a book. We sometimes agree, 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.000 we sometimes don't agree. His last two substack postings I 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:25.200 haven't agreed with at all. So what's the house plan? 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:26.720 What's Richard to they? 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:32.160 Well, the host plan is the Strait of Hormuz enables 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.040 traffic from the Persian Gulf to get to the Gulf 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:38.880 of Oman and then out to the European Sea and 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.840 out to its points. You know, it's destinations. The Iranians 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:48.200 have quotes shut down end quote the Strait of Hormuz, 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.880 and so the question is what do you do about 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:53.960 that they are letting through. The Iranians are letting through, 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.200 or have let through ninety tankers full of oil, some 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:01.080 destined for China, some destin't for India. So the host 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:05.400 plan is to essentially set up a blockade in the 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:10.320 Gulf of Oman that prevents any tanker that Iran is 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.720 letting through the Strait of Hormos from going any further. 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.920 And so essentially it's a blockade of a blockade, and 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.520 the message would be, look, unless you open up the 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:23.919 Strait of horm Moves, no tankers are going to get through, 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:26.040 which means you're not going to get the revenue that 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:30.280 you get if the oil is delivered to China, and 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:32.799 it will piss the Chinese off that they're not getting it, 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:36.640 so they'll presumably pressure you to reopen the street. 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.360 That's an excellent idea. No oil for us, no oil 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.320 for you. But carg Island might end her into this 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:46.240 as well. That's not a permanent solution though, John, and 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:49.960 what has been laid bare is in fact just how 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:53.119 crucial the Strait of horn Moves is, and the Iranians 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:55.640 have been threatening for years to close it. They never 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:59.000 had the ability until they built the missile array. Can 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:03.280 we allow it to there exposed? No we can't, No, 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:03.760 we can't. 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:07.240 I mean I think you should sponsor with the Service 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:12.720 academies and the leading you know, diplomacy institutes at contest 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:15.520 who can come up with the best idea of how 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:20.160 to resolve the Strait of Hormu's issue, because it's absolutely 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.640 critical that it be resolved. The longer it goes on, 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.599 the greater the economic impact. And it's not just that 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.479 the price of gas goes. It's a little bit like dominos, 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.360 where if this, if this happens, and that happens, and 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:35.720 then that happens, and all of it is bad. So 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.680 it's essential that it be resolved. And the terrible thing 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:44.240 is that the Iranians have gotten better at mines sea 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:47.440 mines that you know, you think of mines as something 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.360 kind of like big balls that float on the top 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.440 of the ocean, and you know, a battleship runs into 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:55.680 them and blows up, like in the World War two movies. 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.000 But now they're anchored to the floor and you can't 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:04.000 see them, and you know by acoustics when when the boat, 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:08.000 when the destroyer US destroyer gets close, the mind gets off. 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:11.760 You need mine sweepers to take care of that, and 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.320 as it happens, the US Navy has none. 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:18.839 Yeah, I'm told by retired to six that some of 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:22.560 our high tech people have got some solutions, but we'll 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:25.760 be testing them in real time. We have no mind sweepers. 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:30.760 We're running through our tomahawks and indeed through everything. But 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:32.839 if we win, I think it's going to be worth it. 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:37.479 And by when I mean regime alteration, not replacement, just 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:44.640 coersion into a non fanatical theocratic regime. Where do you 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:48.120 think we are in this, John, I think it's a 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:48.640 toss up. 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:52.640 I mean, it really depends on how much pain the 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.920 Iranians are willing to withstand. They show that they're willing 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:03.440 to withstand unlimited pain the Irano in Irantorek war. It 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.279 strikes me that those days are different from these days. 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:10.560 And it's certainly the case that US and Israel. Israeli 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:15.000 firepower is exponentially more lethal than what they were up 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.200 against in the Iraq War. 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.000 But some of the men at the top of this 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:24.039 regime walked through minefields. Is ten years old. I like 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:28.719 to remind people that this generation was the product of 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:33.560 the nineteen eighty eighty eight death match with Iraq, which 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:37.400 was as bloody and as brutal war as any It's 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:41.880 like Ukraine Russia right now, maybe even worse. But they 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:45.480 are not for bending very easily. They have to be broken. 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.440 Let's talk a little bit about the politics of it. 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:52.280 John Hollis Harry Anton of all people, CNN did a 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:56.880 poll of self described MAGA voters. One hundred percent of 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:00.919 his polling sample support Donald Trump. Some people might have 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:04.200 opted out of MAGA by virtue of what's happened over 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.320 the last three weeks. But it's still a pretty stunning number. 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:08.800 It's it's not fractured. 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.280 Well, there are two there are two narratives in what 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.200 we call the mainstream media at the moment. One is 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:20.080 that the megabase is fracturing, and the other is that 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:24.360 the great Blue wave is coming. The mega fracturing story 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:28.200 is simply not true. And had you know, one hundred 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.920 percent NBC News had eighty five percent. I've seen other 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.080 stuff that says ninety percent of the quote mega base 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:39.200 end quote is sticking with President Trump. So that's you know, 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:43.080 that narrative is wrong. And the second narrative, the blue wave, 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:48.040 nothing like that is going to happen. You know, there's 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:52.080 seventeen seats that are that are you know, maybe going 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:56.040 to go the Democratic way, maybe not. There are three 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:59.000 more that you could make the case that they could 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:03.200 go democratic, but anything like the normal historical average of 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:08.720 twenty six seat switch it seems extremely unlikely. And that's 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.760 not you know, that's not just me saying that. That's 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:14.920 you know, Charlie Cook, whose Cook Political Report is as 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.080 good as any in terms of analyzing Elections has pretty 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:19.160 much said the same thing. 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.600 So now I think you if Louis John Cornan wins 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:27.040 his Senate primary, he has a layup against tall Reno. 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:31.480 But I also think Tallerino probably beats Ken Paxton. I 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:34.560 don't think Graham Platner can beat Susan Collins. That would 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:38.200 be very strange. North Carolina is a toss up. Ossoff 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:42.680 is a tough candidate, Michigan's always tough for Republicans, and 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.760 John Houston in Ohio is a pretty good candidate, but 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.400 so is shared Brown. It's possible to lose the Senate. John, 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.920 do you agree with this? Absolutely? Yes. 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:56.760 I think the range is no change to plus one Democrat, 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.240 so plus three R to plus one. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:04.520 D O D. It's gonna be a while. To that end, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.560 I have been urging Republicans put their arms around the war, 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:11.640 throw the two hundred and fifty million a billion dollars 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:14.319 onto a reconciliation bill, jam at through the House and 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:17.000 the Senate, and stand by Trump and say we have 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.200 to take it run off the map. Because they're stuck 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:21.600 with the war anyway, they might as well be patriotic 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:22.000 about it. 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.920 Well, the other thing is the Democrats appear to be 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:31.400 hoping that we lose. So, you know, that's an interesting. 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:34.840 I'm gonna say that, but I'm you're the objective neutral guy. 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.520 It sure does look that way to me. I don't know. 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:42.120 I read this stuff every morning, you know, from one 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:45.440 to six o'clock in the morning, and it sure sounds 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.360 to me like they're not all in on the war. 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.240 It sounds to me, you know, in the coverage as well, 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:54.800 is all negative. There's plenty of bad news here. It's 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.000 not that it's that there's there's almost no There was 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.640 one day this week where the quote narrative end quote 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:05.960 of the mainstream media switched dramatically, and oddly enough, it 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.760 was because of a piece that ran in El Jazeera 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:12.120 where the author said, basically, the US is winning. 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:17.000 Yes, there is also a non good piece of news 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.840 today and if third thirty five got hit by something 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.520 that was able to land, but we didn't think that 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.160 was possible. So that's not a good bit of news. 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:28.920 Let's close with a bit of good news, though I'm 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.800 a little bit worried. I have birder friends like Dan 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:35.560 Paraman and they're kind of crazy about birding. And now 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.760 if it turns out that birding is good for your brain. 0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:43.719 I really fear getting forced into the birding world. It 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:48.199 seems a little eccentric and it seems resource intensive. 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.559 Well, you know, we have a weekly newsletter called bird 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:55.640 News Items. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:56.840 I know it's now. 0:10:56.840 --> 0:11:02.800 Scientific scientifically proven that it prevents dementia. So my advice 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:05.000 to you is get with the program, get yourself a 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:08.319 subscription to Bird News Items, and you'll be doing this 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:10.080 show well into your nineties. 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:15.280 Are you a birder I thought, family members, No, my brother. 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:20.160 My brother is a former board member of the Cornell 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.080 Ornithology Lab, which is sort of the mit of birds, 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.720 and he's the sort of person that goes to Minnesota 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:29.040 to look to the Iron Range in Minnesota to look 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:32.000 for a specific bird. In other words, he's crazy, but 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:33.679 apparently he's not demented. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:35.960 Well, great, he's going to be doing it for a 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:37.760 long time. I go also have to tell the audience 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.600 John stuck In that the Buckeyes lost last night. However, 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:45.640 the red Hawks, the Miami RedHawks, play this afternoon, So 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:49.240 Ohio is still represented, John Allis, We're not down yet. 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.520 We're not out yet. John Alis, thank you. Get your 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:55.880 News Items by going to Google and just news items, 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.000 John Allis, it will take you there, this one substack 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.319 that every morning will make you as smart as anybody 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:05.600 else in your office, carpool, or that you're talking to 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.079 for the rest of the day. Thank you, John. I'll 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.680 be right back in America with Eli Lake. Stay tuned, 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.760 Welcome back to America. Eli Lake is a correspondent with 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.000 The Free Press. He's also the host of the Breaking 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:23.600 History podcast, frequent contributed to commentary podcast as he was 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.559 this morning. He's also part of a I don't know 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.160 twenty hour conversation with Andrew Sullivan about Iran this week, 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:34.960 which I found very interesting between Eli and Andrew, and 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:40.000 two of programs by Aviv Reddy Gerr on Hominius the Ideology. 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.000 I feel like I'm overwhelmed, But Eli, let me hand 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:46.160 you this accolade. I have been waiting for this moment 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.200 for forty seven years, an honest to goodness attempt to 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:53.440 take down the regime. And I cannot believe that so 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:57.040 few people are focused on how important this is. Do 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.240 you think they understand how important this is? 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:02.599 No, and I don't think people are paying attention to 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.960 the right metrics. I want to open the straight of 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.240 her moves like everybody else, and that is important in 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:11.760 the short term. But the story to watch are the 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:15.960 drones that Israel controls over besiege checkpoints. 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.000 It's the come. 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.480 Conversation that you know. The Wall Street Journal heard a 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.680 recording of where a massade officer is talking to a 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.120 senior Tehran police commander, and at the end of it 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:28.960 he says, I swear on. 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:30.720 The Quran, I'm already dead. 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:34.320 Please come and save us. That's the That's the metric 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:38.440 that I'm looking at, Not you know what the remaining 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:42.320 of Iranian stooges or regime officials say. Not the straight 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.679 up Hormuz, not the you know back and forth between 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.480 European allies and Trump over mind sweepers and so forth. 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:53.680 The thing that matters is the plan that I think 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.800 Israel has been working on for some time and that 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.240 we're going to start seeing other parts of It. Might 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.160 be Resipolo who comes back, It could be people on 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.680 the inside, It might be a combination of both. But 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.000 I think my hope is that I think that there 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.440 is a plan to do this, that this war ends 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.600 in a velvet in a color revolution, as they call it. 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.480 It is the most significant geopolitical moment since nineteen eighty nine, 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.080 because a long standing enemy of the United States could 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.280 be cracking, and the cracking might go on for some 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.520 period of time, and there are costs of that cracking, 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:30.960 including economic costs. And the straightah Horn moves isn't inconvenience. 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.840 But the Battle of the Atlantic almost starved Great Britain 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.560 to death. This is not that this is a dollar 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:41.800 more gallon of gas and production problems for Japan, China, 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.960 and India. It's not the end of the civilized world. 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:47.960 So I don't even think it's that big of a 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:51.040 military problem. Once you get your assets in place, it's 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.280 twenty three miles long. We have two EMUs coming now, 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.360 one from Asia, one from San Diego. I believe, to 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.840 big decks with marines on them. A lot of stuff 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:04.600 we can do. I mean, why do people want us 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.760 to lose? It just seems like a lot of American 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:08.640 media wants. 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:13.680 Us to lose, well, to put it charitably, or to 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:15.960 maybe steal man the other side. I think that so 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:20.320 many people who follow and you know, Iran policy and 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:24.880 this conflict, they can't imagine a world without the Iranian regime, 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:26.080 without the Islamic Republic. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:26.920 It's hard for. 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.360 Them to even imagine it, so they just kind of 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.400 revert back to, of course, there'll be some regime that 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:36.080 sticks around after this war. David Ignatius, who I think 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:38.760 is a fine reporter, but his column he wrote this 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.240 week is about, you know, there has to be no 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.000 clear winnable goals and you know, to think about sort 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:47.200 of an exit ramp, and he gives. 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:47.720 His thoughts on it. 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:53.600 And my view is that even if the combat operations 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.760 end and there is a rump of the regime in place, 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.840 I think we have to really work. The world has 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.720 to hope that Israel and the Iranian people and what 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:08.600 they have cooking ultimately works, and I can see it. 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:09.600 I'm hoping it does. 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.560 You know. For the last year I've been reading with 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.360 Larry or on this book, The Gathering Storm, and the 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.000 one thing that looking back to the thirties tells me 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:22.720 is if England and France had fought a complicated, risky 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.880 battle with Germany in the thirties, the world would not 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:30.000 have burned. And this regime has revealed itself. That's the 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.280 biggest takeaway for the first three weeks from me. I 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:35.200 want to know what you think of the first three weeks, 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.520 the nature of the regime. It's actually for two months 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.880 now since they murdered thirty five thousand of their own people. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:46.280 But they're firing at the Alaska Mosque now. They have 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:53.280 absolutely no inhibitions about chaos because chaos is their theology. 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:57.960 Yes, one hundred percent. And I would say this as well. 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:00.920 All of the people who think that we're losing the 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:06.040 war and are focusing on negative elements. Contrasts that with 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.679 the governments of our golf allies, including now Kuttar, that 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:14.000 are all in that right there. They have the skin 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:17.240 in the game. Do you think we're sacrificing at the pump? 0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:20.399 United Arab Emirates And they're really feeling the brunt of 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:23.440 it because the Iranians are firing at hotels and civilian 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:27.719 targets and their airport and so forth. They're saying, keep going, 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.560 they want to finish the job. That tells me everything 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.119 I need to know. It also tells me that the 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:36.480 Iranian theory of this war was all wrong. They thought 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:41.280 they could intimidate our allies to regret hosting our bases. 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:45.880 The opposite happens. It strengthened their resolve and now Iran, 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.680 as I've never seen a country this isolated before, not 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:54.000 even Russia and China last week voted against the UN 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:58.119 Security Council resolution condemning Iran's behavior as incredible. They were 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.960 extensions on that they have zeer allies in the world 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:01.520 right now. 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.480 I do want to have any for a worst case scenario. 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:08.520 If I understand the Mosaic plan, Iran divides into thirty 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:11.760 to thirty five different regions, each with a commander in chief, 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:16.160 each with missile supplies, and they can wage guerrilla war 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.399 in the mountains and the plains in the deserts for 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:23.359 years to come. Is that the worst case scenario That 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:24.480 would be a pretty bad one. 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:26.360 I think another worst case scenario is, and I don't 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.800 think I don't see signs that's happening, is that if 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:33.560 something happened and Trump dramatically just withdrew without any kind 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:35.880 of agreement, that would give the Iranian regime a sense 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.360 of victory that was left, and then they would then 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:43.320 proceed to slaughter even more of their own civilians to 0:18:43.560 --> 0:18:46.360 sort of teach the people a lesson, and we would 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.359 have a weakened regime in place, but one that would 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:51.639 kind of feel emboldened that they were managed to survive 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:53.160 a war against the great powers. 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:57.360 That would be even I didn't consider that eli because 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:00.840 the one guy who's not on the krak, Donald Trump. 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.560 I just can't I think that's right. Yeah, I can't 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:08.919 see it either. Now, the politics MAGA has not splendored. 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:12.960 Some traditional Republicans who hate Trump still hate Trump, and 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:16.440 so they're against the war. Some of the national security 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.240 elite think it was a bad idea, but they've been 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:21.760 isolated from the rest of the country for a long time. 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:25.600 Is there any political risk here other than losing. 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:29.800 Well, I mean, losing is a huge political risk. So 0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:34.040 then you'll get the podcast or class that is against 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:37.920 it doing a series of I Told you so's, and 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:41.440 they'll probably blame Israel and the people who support Israel 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.280 in the country. So losing would be bad. But that's 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:47.600 the truth. That's true in every war. You I mean, 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.639 you know, it's better to win, and I think Trump 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.160 gets that more than anyone, So I think he wants 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:57.560 to win it. That's I think he's focused on that. 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:00.520 And then at that point, it'll be very interesting to 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:03.800 see what happened, what becomes of MAGA and what becomes 0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:06.800 of what may be called the dissidence within MAGA, who 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.880 have very big platforms, but apparently not many followers. 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.400 At least we will sit not much influence, big platforms, 0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:17.200 not much influence. Eli, I think you're doing Yeoman's work. 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.760 Keep writing, keep reporting at the Free Press and at 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:23.959 the Breaking History. The episode with Andrew Sullivan is just 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:27.000 so much fun. Andrew's been on his program twice one week, 0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:28.800 threw bricks at each other for an hour and a half, 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:31.720 and then we had eleven ten years later, So I 0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:35.800 really think it's fine. Excellent conversation, Eli Lake. Follow him 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.159 on exit, Eli Lake, read him in The Free Press. 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.359 Listen to Breaking History. I'll be right back. Don't go anywhere. 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:50.679 Continetti is next on the Hugh Hewitt Show program Back America. 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.159 I'm Hugh Hewitt. Matt Continetti is the Senior Fellow for 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:58.120 Domestic Affairs at the American Enterprise Institute, also a columnist 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:00.479 for the Wall Street Journal. Had a very good column 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:03.560 today in the Journal on the complexities of the Iran 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.639 where Matt Kannetty. I want to begin by asking you 0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:09.600 to describe how you see the first three weeks of 0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:13.480 the battle with Iran well Hugh. 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:15.359 I think the first three weeks of the battle with 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.840 Iran have been an overwhelming military success for the United 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:24.479 States and for Israel. I think we're rapidly pursuing our 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:30.040 main objectives is ending the nuclear threat, destroying the missile threat, 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:35.200 destroying is Iran's ability to cement terrorism in the region 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:39.240 through its proxies, and then laying the groundwork the conditions 0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:43.520 for a potential regime collapse where the boots on the 0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:47.959 ground are not American or Israeli soldiers, but they're the 0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:52.520 Iranian people themselves. So I think we've made extraordinary progress 0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:56.159 along all those lines. There have been some costs, but 0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:59.840 I think compared with what has been gained, those costs have. 0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:01.720 Minimal. 0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:05.679 And right now we've had this new challenge in the 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:09.439 last week or so with the Strait of Hormuz. But 0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:12.000 the battle for the strait, for control of the strait, 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:17.040 for the safe passage of all the vessels that transit 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:19.960 through the strait, I think will be won by the 0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:22.200 United States. Has to be won for the future of 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:25.280 the world and for freedom of navigation. It will just 0:22:25.320 --> 0:22:26.760 take a little bit more time. 0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:30.200 You know, Matt, I've been telling people this all week Long. 0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:33.160 I'm somewhat of an amateur student of World War Two, 0:22:33.720 --> 0:22:36.679 the Battle of the Atlantic, which ranged over two years, 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:39.760 that was about actually whether Great Britain would have anything 0:22:39.800 --> 0:22:42.320 to eat. The Strait of the Hormuz is about the 0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:44.919 cost of gasoline and whether or not Japan, India and 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:49.840