1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: He's editor in chief of Breitbart News and a New 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: York Times best selling author, and on this podcast he 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:12,239 Speaker 1: brings deep research, prescient analysis at world class guests. He's 4 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: Alex Marlowe and this is the Alex Marlowe Show. 5 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 2: All right, John Carney's here for the episode. We're talking 6 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: about all sorts of things economic as well as ill children. 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: You have ill children as well. I've got all four 8 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: are sick right now. No, actually, you know, the baby's 9 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: doing well, which is very odd, but the other three 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 2: are just I'm a dodging vomit and dookie. It's just horrible. 11 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 3: It's that time of year. It's the you know, the 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 3: everybody gets sick, all the kids get sick and then 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 3: this So one thing that's good over the years, Alex, 14 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 3: my kids are a little older than yours, you start 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 3: to gain super immunity. I don't get sick ever anymore. Yeah, 16 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 3: because my kids have just you know, carried home the 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 3: biggest kind of germ virus, so you know, they like 18 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 3: throw up on me. I'm like, it's no sweat, I'm fine. 19 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 3: It's good. 20 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 2: It's really interesting because my daughter, my eldest daughter, coughed 21 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 2: on me in a way where it had physical force. Yesterday, 22 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: it actually it hit my head and my head jolted 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: back like I was in a car crash of some sort. 24 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 2: And I was thinking, does this mean I'm gonna get 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 2: super violently ill? And I concluded the answer is probably no. 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 2: And it's probably the same things you're talking about. I said, 27 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 2: I get sick, but it's all mild, Like I got 28 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: the stuffles right now. But it's like the remedy is 29 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 2: like I got the warm coffee today instead of the cold, 30 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 2: like just to kind of warm up my vocal cords, 31 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 2: and that's it, and then you just go about your business. 32 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,279 Speaker 2: I got admit, though I did miss the workout this morning. 33 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: I slept in the extra forty five minutes. So that's 34 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: a I've got that level of laziness going. But it's 35 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: I've got to share this with the audience. But when 36 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: I came back from my first vacation with no children 37 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: John in seven a half. 38 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: Years, oh incredible. 39 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've always taken at least one We always take 40 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: at least one child with us, and we had zero 41 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: for my fortieth birthday and I know you to birthday 42 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: this week too, is a happy birthday to you happy birthday. Yeah, 43 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 2: thank you. And so we went with no children and 44 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 2: it was it was a pretty great trip. But I'll 45 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: tell you we came back and the shi t storm 46 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: that we walked into was just beyond belief. The house 47 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 2: is completely upside down. All the children are sick, the 48 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 2: nanny sick, and we've burned out all of the favors 49 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 2: from all the grandparents because they've all been stepping up 50 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 2: during the vacation. And I got to say, I'm very 51 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 2: happy that I like my children and I like my job, 52 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: because any in a normal circumstance, I would have been 53 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 2: at suicidal levels of depression after that moment. 54 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 3: Where did you? Where did you go? 55 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 2: And we went to White So that's our that's our 56 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 2: move because it's just a straightaway flight. So the hardest 57 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 2: part is dealing with LAX if you can survive LAX. 58 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: And the problem is that's also the very end of 59 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 2: your trip. So the code of your trip is dealing 60 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 2: with La International Airport, which is there's no good way 61 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: to do it because either you know, you're paying a 62 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: fortune for cabs and you can't have cabs pull up 63 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 2: to the curb because this genius airport where we is 64 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: not big enough to the car. The space for cars 65 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 2: to drive is not big enough to accommodate all the traffic, 66 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 2: so if you are taking a cab or an uber 67 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: or a lyft, you have to walk or shuttle to 68 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: a special lot for that. Also, the airport is super confusing. 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 2: For example, so I took off from Terminal three and 70 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: then we arrived in Terminal four. So we parked in 71 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: the Terminal three lot. That would be right next to 72 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 2: terminal four, right, John, Oh, No, the Terminal three lot 73 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: is next to Terminal B. Because of lax you have one, two, three, 74 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: and then the next terminal is B. There's a logic 75 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 2: behind it that I won't wait the audiences come on 76 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: for now. But so Terminal four is actually hide of 77 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 2: ways from Terminal three because we have to go through 78 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: Terminal B and you've all this stuff going on. So 79 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: it is truly depressing after coming back from the islands. 80 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I can imagine. The last time my wife and 81 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: I went on a Kid's List facation, we went to Florida. 82 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 3: It was a great trip. Next summer, we're actually taking 83 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 3: a trip with the kids and with a bunch of 84 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 3: in laws to Hawaii. I've never been. You know, East 85 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 3: Coasters don't usually make it out there because it's really, 86 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 3: you know, it's it's really it's tough. 87 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: I think we did it once in the eight years 88 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 2: that I was in DC Virginia and it was worth it. 89 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 2: But you know, it's like eleven hours or total flying. 90 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 2: We'd at least one baby at the time. I think 91 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 2: maybe it was even two. It's a real commitment. So 92 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 2: hopefully you're getting a good chunk of time to go. 93 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: Where are you going? You pick an island out, you. 94 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 3: Know, I it's sort of in my it's my wife's family. 95 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 3: So I've actually stepped back from any planning at all 96 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 3: because I figure if I start to get interested, I'll 97 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: start to try to influence things in ways that I 98 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 3: think are not welcome. And so I'm just gonna, you know, 99 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: go for the ride, see where where they take me. 100 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 2: So do you know which island? 101 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: No? 102 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 3: I have, no, No, I have not, because. 103 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: They're all totally different. So so Honolulu, which I've actually 104 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 2: never been to. I think the plan is I want 105 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: to go there next, but that's like a real city. 106 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: So a Wahuu is the island, but everyone goes into 107 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: Honolulu and it's actually one of the most populous cities 108 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 2: in the country. It's like a million people, so and 109 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 2: it's a horrific traffic, so some of the worst traffic. 110 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 2: But you also got Pearl Harbor there, so there's some 111 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 2: it actually feels like an American city, and there's some 112 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 2: history you can do. And then you've got some islands 113 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 2: like Kauwhai, which is mostly sort of rainforest, and so 114 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 2: that's really fly and flop territory, and you know, it's 115 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 2: just incredibly beautiful from there. And then maw he's got 116 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 2: a bit of everything, very family friendly that that's the 117 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 2: one for the kids. 118 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 3: So that's maybe, you know, I suspect now that you 119 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 3: put it that way, Mao is probably where we're where 120 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 3: we're gonna head because there's a you know, I have 121 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 3: my cousin, my kids, cousins there come. You know, we're 122 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 3: gonna have like ten kids on those trip, So I 123 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 3: bet we're headed towards now. 124 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: He's most likely then, because it really is the best 125 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 2: place I think you could travel with children. It's just 126 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: it's all kids centric, and it's just you know, when 127 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 2: the last time I was there with the kids, we 128 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: were probably I don't know, seventy five one hundred yards 129 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 2: from the from the from the actual Pacific Ocean and 130 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: maybe twenty five yards from the pool, and it's just 131 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: it just makes things a lot easier with all the 132 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 2: some some block and the schlepping and the lugging and 133 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 2: it just stops, like you just it's all there in 134 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 2: front of you, and so amazing. 135 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 3: How much more stuff you need when you go to 136 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 3: the beach with kids, you know. Yeah, like I used 137 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 3: to be able to, you know, you have a towell 138 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 3: and maybe some sunscreen and that was it. Right now 139 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,799 Speaker 3: now you have like seven kinds of sunscreen, a million 140 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 3: kinds of food, water, drinks, you know, everything. 141 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 2: So I used to feel a little bit like I was. 142 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 2: It was almost bragging or something if you act like 143 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: you go there. But I'll tell you why I've become 144 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 2: embraced being a Hawaii advocate for a couple of things. 145 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: First of all, I do think it's actually affordable for 146 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: a lot of people, because you know, we flew on 147 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 2: miles and over half of our hotel was paid for 148 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 2: its credit card points. So it's like you can do 149 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 2: it so that you're it's not a super expensive trip 150 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: if you are if you're precise about you know, how 151 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: you're getting points and stuff like that, so you can 152 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 2: do it. The other thing that's so important about it, John, 153 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: is it's America and it is not Maga America. I'll 154 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: tell you that. But it is very nice that no passports. 155 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: It's you feel much more safe at these places. Not 156 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: say it's perfectly safe, but it's our country, and I 157 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 2: feel like that that is a big advantage when it 158 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: comes to peace of mind, especially if you're traveling with 159 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: young people. Is I don't Baja California is very close 160 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 2: to me, and I don't really want to go to 161 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: Mexico right now. And I know that basically a lot 162 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: of these resorts are opera only because the cartels give 163 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 2: them permission. So even the results, I just I mean 164 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: even the resorts, I don't know. And then you're going 165 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 2: to the Caribbean. I mean, so many of those countries are corrupt. 166 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 2: Is I don't necessarily want to patronize them to the 167 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 2: extent I want to patronize our own country. 168 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 3: You know what. Also, you shouldn't feel bad because I 169 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: know a lot of you know, Middle Americans, Maga Americans 170 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 3: who really want to go to Hawaii, like it's not 171 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 3: you know, they don't look at that as something that's 172 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 3: like unobtainable. That's a vacation that they want to take. 173 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: And so I mean, that's why I'm going. I'm going 174 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 3: with my in laws from the Midwest. It's closer for them. Still, 175 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: it's still quite a hype, but you know, East Coast 176 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 3: is a big hype for them too, going to So 177 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 3: I'm excited. I actually had never really thought I'd go 178 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 3: to Hawaii, the closest you know, I went to Uh, 179 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 3: I've been to Asia, I've been to Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, 180 00:08:58,360 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 3: but I never really thought i'd make it to Why. 181 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 3: I thought I'd skip that and go like maybe to 182 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: Australia or New Zealand someday. But now I'm excited. It's 183 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 3: gonna be a good trick. 184 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 2: You will like it. There is a spot that was 185 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 2: near where we were saying, well, I'm pretty convinced of 186 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 2: the most beautiful place that I've ever seen. It's the 187 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 2: most beautiful place I would say in the world that 188 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 2: I've been to. And I've been to some cool places, 189 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 2: but you know, it just has got that. It's got that, 190 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 2: and it's America too. It's also very fun, all John, 191 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 2: because you're a history guy and you're a culture guy. Obviously, 192 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 2: anyone a bright party is by nature, and I know 193 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: that you're interested in history, and there's basically no culture 194 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 2: there and it's all stuff we imported. And I just 195 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 2: get a huge kick out of that because the culture 196 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,599 Speaker 2: is whatever we want it to be. No disrestract to 197 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 2: the Hawaiian people. Many of them are very lovely people, 198 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 2: but there really is not a lot culturally, And it 199 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense because when you've got that 200 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: sort of scenery, I don't think there's a ton and 201 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 2: you're in a very remote island, there's not a ton 202 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 2: of culture that you're incentivized to have when you hang 203 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 2: out in paradise. 204 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: Who needs to like create beautiful sculpture or art around you. 205 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 3: You've got it. God gave it to you. 206 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 2: You guy. He gave you everything. You don't need to 207 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 2: invent the port. Do you understand why the Porsche wasn't 208 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: invented there? 209 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 4: Like it? 210 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 2: It makes sense? So anyway, I know there's a big digression, 211 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 2: but you know what, it's podcast format, so I'm indulging myself. 212 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 2: We actually have a lot of pretty serious stuff to 213 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: talk about. And it was funny when I came back 214 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 2: to Live radio, I was talking about what stories made 215 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 2: it all the way to Hawaii, because not everything did, 216 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 2: Like how we were supposed to invade Iran while I 217 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 2: was there, and that never made it to the island. 218 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 2: There's no discussion. No one was saying, yeah, we're about 219 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: to invade Iran. I guess, I guess the chips around Uh, 220 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: that did not make it. But one thing that did 221 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 2: make it, of course, was the FED chair announcement. And 222 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 2: so I want to start with this. So Kevin Worsh, 223 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 2: we knew be one of the two Kevins? Why Worsh? 224 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 2: And then I'm very curious because I am sort of 225 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: politics first, economic second, your sort of I think economics first, 226 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 2: politics second. But I'm very curious why Tom till Us 227 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 2: things he can blackmail President Trump to odd staff, which 228 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 2: is we'll get into we'll get there. But tell me 229 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 2: who's Kevin Warsh? And why would you think you got 230 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 2: the nod over? Has it? 231 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 3: Sure? Kevin Worsh was a Fed governor way back in 232 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 3: up until twenty and eleven. He was appointed originally by 233 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 3: George Bush. He only served part of his term He 234 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 3: left in twenty eleven, partly out of protest when the 235 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 3: FED kept doing chewing, so quantitative easing, where the Fed's 236 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 3: buying all these bonds. They do one round, Worsh's supportive 237 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 3: of it. They start a second round, and wors is like, wait, 238 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 3: why are we doing this? It doesn't seem to be 239 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 3: prophy up the economy. We did it as an emergency 240 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 3: thing because like the financial system was collapsing. Why are 241 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 3: we doing it again? He believes the Fed he was. 242 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 3: He goes into you know, private sector is there for years. 243 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: Trump gets elected, he is up for iteration with J. 244 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 3: Powell to be FED chairman. He was one of the 245 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: two finalists that time, and it was actually Steve Mnusian, 246 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 3: who was then the Treasury Secretary, who pressured Trump into 247 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 3: appointing J. Powell. Trump sometimes talks about this, by the way, 248 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 3: he is not happy with that, with his decision and 249 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 3: with Mnusian's influence over that. He thinks he picked the 250 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 3: wrong guy. So I think Hassett always had a pretty 251 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 3: strong chance of getting the knob this time because Trump 252 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 3: looked back on it and was like, I want to 253 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 3: undo my mistake. Hassett was another strong contender for this position. 254 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 3: He Trump knows him at this point extremely well. He's 255 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 3: served in two Trump White Houses. He was at the 256 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 3: Council for Economic Advisors, he's now the National Economic Director. 257 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 3: And just so people know, National Economic Director is one 258 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 3: of the most powerful positions in the US government, not 259 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 3: because it exercises any formal power, but because you're literally 260 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 3: in the Oval Office all the time, like every day, 261 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 3: You're in all the meetings because everybody wants to know, Okay, 262 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 3: how does you know we're gonna do X? What does 263 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 3: that do for the economy? Even national security matters. You're 264 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 3: more or less brought in because people want to know, Okay, 265 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 3: Bob I ran, what happens to the economy? Rights that 266 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 3: do oil prices go up? So that the National Economics 267 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 3: Director is one of the president's closest advisors, which makes 268 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 3: it you know, and when you're the president of the 269 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 3: United States's closest advisor, you're the most powerful people in 270 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 3: the world. 271 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 1: Uh. 272 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 3: Trumpe has to get along well. Trump regards has it 273 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 3: as really good salesman for the Trump Economic program. Is 274 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 3: in addition to being a good thinker about how it 275 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 3: should work, he's also good when he goes on TV 276 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 3: and talks about it, and ultimately I think that's what 277 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 3: did in is. Trump was like, well, if I point 278 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 3: has it to the Fed, he's not my economic advisor anymore. 279 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 2: I think about that quite a bit, and there is 280 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 2: a lot of that in Washington, is that you can 281 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 2: get kind of trapped in a very good job where 282 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 2: if you've got a boss who wants you there, you're 283 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 2: not going to necessarily help you get to the next 284 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: level out of the goodness of their heart when they'd 285 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 2: rather have you at their at their side. 286 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right. I think they he wanted 287 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 3: to have him out of side. I think also there 288 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 3: was a secondary consideration that hurt has its chance, because 289 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 3: I think it has it had pushed really hard, he 290 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 3: may have gotten it. But the uh, the current fight 291 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 3: with j Powell, particularly when the Justice Department subpoenaed J. 292 00:14:55,760 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 3: Powell over his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee and 293 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 3: the having to do with the construction or the renovation 294 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 3: of the new FED headquarters, that provoked a backlash not 295 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 3: just among Democrats in the Senate, but also among some Republicans. 296 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 3: You mentioned Tom Tillis, he's kind of leading the charge 297 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 3: on this, and I think it became a concern about 298 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 3: whether the if somebody was considered too close to Trump. 299 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 3: And obviously, you know I just went through Hassett's very 300 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:35,239 Speaker 3: close to Trump, that the Senators may object to confirming 301 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 3: him because they may say, will this guy really be independent? 302 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 3: Will he lead the FED? Or is he so close 303 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 3: to Trump that he won't? Now, I think that's a 304 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 3: little wrong. I think Hassett thinks for himself. One of 305 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 3: the reasons he's a great advisor to Trump is that 306 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 3: he's not a yes man. He's actually an ideas guy. 307 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 3: I think so. I don't think that's a fair criticism 308 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 3: of hass It, but I do think that became a 309 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: worry could has to get confirmed with a Senate so 310 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 3: evenly divided that you can't afford to lose more than 311 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 3: one Republican vote. You have to worry about that. So 312 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 3: I think practically they figured out that worsh can be confirmed. 313 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 3: He doesn't work for the administration. He's been confirmed to 314 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: the FED before. He's I mean, this isn't a selling 315 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 3: point for our audience. But he's more tied to hasid 316 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 3: Is too, though he's more tied to sort of traditional 317 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 3: Republican maybe Republican establishment a little more, but has it 318 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 3: is too So I don't think I'm going to take 319 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 3: that back, but they I think so. The view was 320 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 3: both worsh will be good and worsh is confirmable. So 321 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 3: that's why I got the nod. 322 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 2: Fantastic, But let's talk about the confirmable part, because I 323 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 2: was kind of shocked. I got admit I was kind 324 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: of shocked by the ham fisted nature of this. Tom 325 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 2: Tillis does not strike me as a particularly bright guy, 326 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 2: but he basically threatened. But he basically black is blackmailing 327 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 2: Trump because Trump is Trump's DOJ, so not doal Trump himself, 328 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 2: the DOJ investigating the FED and their overhaul of I 329 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 2: guess the Federal Reserve building, and I want you to 330 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 2: give me exactly what's happening, John. So the audience is 331 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 2: crystal on. This seems like a pre legitimate investigation, and 332 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 2: Tom Tillis is literally demanding Trump intervene and and the 333 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 2: investigation or he won't support Walsh. It just this to 334 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 2: me is just it's such blatant black You're not supposed 335 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 2: to make it this obvious you're blackmailing someone, But that's 336 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 2: what's happening, and. 337 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 3: There's a yes. So you described it perfectly. What Tillis 338 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 3: has said is he will not confirm anybody to the FED, 339 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 3: whether it's a different governor or to the chairmanship, unless 340 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 3: the DJ drops this investigation. I think that's not a 341 00:17:55,200 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 3: legitimate position. Frankly, I think that it's asked Trump to 342 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 3: do something he's accused of, which is politically interfere with 343 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: the Justice Department investigations. Right, You're not supposed to make 344 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 3: the confirmation of a FED chair turn on whether a 345 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 3: president will pressure the Justice Department to drop an investigation 346 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 3: of someone that's not good the So Tillis shouldn't do that. However, 347 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 3: I will say I think the Justice Department subpoena. I 348 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 3: think it was almost an accidental thing. 349 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 4: What happened was, in my view, that the the Jeanine 350 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 4: Piro's office, she's the assistant US Attorney for the. 351 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 3: District of Columbia, had sent some inquiries into the FED 352 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 3: and said like, hey, we've got some questions about your testimony, 353 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 3: we've got some questions about this renovation we you know here, 354 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 3: they are get back to us. They didn't get back, 355 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 3: so they start to follow uping Q didn't get back. 356 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 3: That's I think struck the US Attorney's office as arrogance. 357 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 3: They were like, what is going on with Okay, so 358 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 3: this is. 359 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 2: Lebyus emphasizes I did make this point on the show 360 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 2: at the time, and it's worth emphasizing that the there's 361 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 2: just ignoring subpoenas. If I just ignoring subpoenas and just 362 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 2: acting like, how do they think they're going to build out? 363 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: Who's going to build to mountain scenario? Yeah, well, so 364 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 2: at first they weren't ignoring the subpoenas. They were ignoring 365 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 2: just like the inquiries. And what do you do if 366 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: you're a US attorney and you're ignored, you then subpoena. Right, 367 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 2: That's how that works. And so they subpoena and by 368 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 2: the way, as far as I can as far as 369 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 2: we know, that then continues to ignore those subpoenas. They 370 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 2: have not, as far as we can tell, answered the subpoenas, 371 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 2: So they shouldn't have done that. 372 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:51,959 Speaker 3: However, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of actual 373 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 3: criminality that happened here. So you've had senators, i think 374 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 3: including Tim Scott on the Banking Committee say like, we 375 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 3: don't think he lied to us, and we don't think 376 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 3: there's you need to do a perjury investigation. We've had 377 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 3: others say, uh, you know so the Justice Department probably 378 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 3: can and probably will, I expect, drop this. But it's 379 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 3: one of those situations where you're like, it should never 380 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 3: have gotten here. They shouldn't have had a subpoena them. 381 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 3: They then should have just answered the questions. The Tillis 382 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 3: should not be trying to blackmail the president with with 383 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 3: with doing this. He should drop that. 384 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 1: Uh. 385 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 3: My solution is the is and I hope the President 386 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 3: watches this uh and does this, which is pardon Pow. 387 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 3: Just say okay, whatever you did wrong, it's okay, Jay, 388 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 3: I'll issue you a pardon. Then the investigation goes away. 389 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 3: Trump gets to look magnanimous. It'll Illinois Powell. He doesn't 390 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 3: want to get pardoned, he doesn't think he'd wrong, but 391 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 3: pardon Powell, and the whole investigation goes away. I do 392 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 3: think by the way, the Senate can hold confirmation hearings. 393 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 3: Tillis hasn't said he's not going to allow confirmation hears 394 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 3: He can't stop the hearings anyway, so they can hold 395 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 3: the confirmation hearings. Tillis can try to stop it from 396 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 3: getting out of committee because he's on the Banking Committee, 397 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 3: but he that won't matter until we get to May, 398 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 3: when Jay Powell's term runs up. May fifteenth is when 399 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 3: the term is up, and if then you need to 400 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 3: confirm somebody by then, But that's several months, so I 401 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 3: imagine the Justice Department's investigation will be done by it then. Anyway, Okay, 402 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 3: so there's not that much to investigate. So but here's 403 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 3: the trick here is it? Do we think this is 404 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: on track for a confirmation? 405 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 2: And I feel like Trump probably wouldn't put him up 406 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 2: if he didn't think he was gonna get confirmed. I'm 407 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 2: guessing just because of the headache nature of it all. 408 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 2: But it said as far as we know, and there's 409 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 2: really only one example, which you've written about extensively, which 410 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 2: is during the quarter years of what would happen if 411 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 2: there isn't an immediate confirmation, maybe Trump would get to 412 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 2: appoint someone, and he could probably appoint someone good. So 413 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 2: play these scenarios after us. 414 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 3: Right, So I do think it's on track for confirmation. 415 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 3: I think ultimately they will resolve the investigation that'll go 416 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 3: away well, I mean another thing is by the way 417 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 3: you can investigate Powell when he's out of office, Like 418 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 3: you can just say, okay, you know, we're putting aside 419 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 3: the investigation and then reopen it. There's no reason to 420 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 3: do it right now while he's in office. So just 421 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 3: keep that in mind. If Powell did do something bad, 422 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 3: it doesn't mean he's off the hook. If they drop 423 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 3: the investigation. I think it'll get that part will get results. 424 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 3: But if it does not, and May fifteenth rolls around, 425 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 3: the statute is very clear that Powell is no longer 426 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 3: chairman when his term is expired. It's not you know 427 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 3: like that there are some positions in the US government 428 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 3: where that you keep it until the next guy gets 429 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,719 Speaker 3: the job. So you'd like remain the acting chairman. Uh, 430 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 3: that's not one of these. That's not this. You lose 431 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 3: this position when your term is up. So then the 432 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 3: question becomes who becomes chairman. Now we've had position, We've 433 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 3: had instances. It happened both actually with Powell under Biden, 434 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,719 Speaker 3: and it happened with Alan Greenspan where the president had 435 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,719 Speaker 3: appointed somebody but actually appointed the guy he was already chairman, 436 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 3: reappointed him and the Senate had it confirmed him yet. 437 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 3: In that case, Powell was allowed to sit as temporary 438 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 3: chairman for a couple of weeks months, but there was 439 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 3: no problem there. Everybody thought, he'll be confirmed, he's been appointed, 440 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,679 Speaker 3: he's been nominated to it, and he's already got the position. 441 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 3: So the last time we were in a position where 442 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 3: the President was going to appoint somebody else and not 443 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 3: the current chairman and there was a vacancy was in 444 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 3: the Carter administration. And in that case, the statute actually 445 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 3: doesn't say what happens when the chair has become vacant 446 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 3: and the president wants to appoint somebody knew there's the 447 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 3: statute fail. It's more like a drafting problem back in 448 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 3: the seventies or in the nineteen thirties, or maybe at 449 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 3: nineteen thirteen, they messed it up. It doesn't say exactly. 450 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 3: So the Carter administration determined the Office of Legal Counsel 451 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 3: said that means that the president has the inherent power 452 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 3: because his job is to make sure the government continues 453 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 3: to function to appoint somebody, not anybody, because a FED 454 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 3: chairman has to be a sitting governor of the Federal Reserve. 455 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 3: So Trump could not make Wars the temporary chairman. But 456 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 3: he could make Mickey Bowman, who is now a FED governor, 457 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 3: she's vice chair for supervision. He could make Christopher Waller, 458 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,479 Speaker 3: now a FED governor, and he could make Stephen Myron, 459 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 3: who is you know, became a FED governor very recently. 460 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 3: He could appoint him to the position. I actually like 461 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 3: the idea of appointing Steven Myron because Myron worked in 462 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 3: the Trump administration until very recently. And if you're concerned, 463 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 3: if you're like you know, Tellus or whoever you're really 464 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 3: concerned about FED independence, you don't want President to appoint, 465 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,880 Speaker 3: you know, the guy who worked in the White House 466 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 3: recently as temporary chairman. So maybe even just threatening to 467 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,439 Speaker 3: a point Myron would be enough to First of all, 468 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 3: I think Byron would be amazing against chairman. He's one 469 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 3: of the smartest people I've ever seen serve on the 470 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 3: federal ords. 471 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 2: So why do I nominate him? To begin with? 472 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 3: He didn't frankly, he doesn't have a lot of like 473 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 3: enough experience. He's a young guy. He he just got 474 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 3: onto the Federal Reserve. I think. 475 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 2: The oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, this is the guy. 476 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 2: This is Stephen Myron. We've talked about this before. He's 477 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 2: a guy. He's like my age, but he looks like 478 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 2: he's like sixty three, so I always think he's older. 479 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 3: He is. He's you know, he shaves his head. Maybe 480 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 3: maybe he's naturally bald, but yeah, he's got you know, 481 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 3: no hair. He also sort of has that like economist 482 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 3: to look to him. Yeah, it's good in that line 483 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 3: of work. That's exactly what you want your economy. He 484 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 3: looks exactly like he wants your economists to look like. Yes, 485 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 3: and and he's really brilliant and smart. That probably also 486 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 3: adds to his age little because when he talks, you know, 487 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 3: he just, yeah, he's sounds, he's using sort of like, 488 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 3: you know, economics professor words. Uh so, but I but 489 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,879 Speaker 3: I but I think the general view was like Myron 490 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 3: might be a great bed chairman in the future, but 491 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 3: it's not his time yet. So that's why he didn't 492 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 3: get the appointment. And also, as I said, like, there 493 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 3: is concern that he might be too close to Trump's 494 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 3: view of things. Even before he was in the Trump administration, 495 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 3: he was writing about problems about you know, international trade 496 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 3: that line up very nicely with Trump's views. So but anyway, 497 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: I think, look, if the Senate refuses to confirm Worsh 498 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 3: in time meeting by May fifteenth, Trump should appoint Myron 499 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 3: as chairman, and I think that will prompt the uh, 500 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 3: the Senators to say, oh we I as far as 501 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 3: I can tell tillis, I've written this, I've said it 502 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 3: on I think I've We've talked about it on podcasts before, 503 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 3: have said it on television a number of times. I 504 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 3: don't think that the Senators realize that Trump has the 505 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 3: inherent power to appoint a chairman. If they try to 506 00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 3: block Worsh that if May fifteenth through rolls around, the 507 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 3: Senate actually loses their power to control who Trump points 508 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 3: and Trump will get to a point any governor. 509 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 2: It's so cool. I'm looking forward to it to see 510 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 2: how it plays out. So overall, I feel like we're 511 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 2: in a good spot here and we'll catch up on 512 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,239 Speaker 2: this down the road. John, I want to catch up 513 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 2: with you on a couple other angles, on different stories. 514 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 2: I got two more, but one of them I got 515 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 2: to ask about Eddie Bauer is going under. I didn't 516 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 2: know Eddie Bauer was still around. 517 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, Eddie Bauer founded by a guy named Eddie Bauer. 518 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 3: Lloyd Tabago was a iconic American brand. They they they're around, 519 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 3: they should be thriving. The category of outdoor gear is 520 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 3: really a pretty successful category. I mean if you just 521 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 3: walk around look at people, how many people are in 522 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 3: like you know, fleece jackets and down jackets and they're 523 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 3: wearing hiking pants and hiking boots, and you know, like 524 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 3: this is a thriving category. 525 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: So they weren't. 526 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: It is. 527 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 2: This is exactly the type of staff that's very common 528 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 2: for casual where it's the fleece jackets. It's the kind 529 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 2: of light puffy jackets that are light in made and 530 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 2: kind of warm and can be worn outside. Yeah, it 531 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 2: should be. This is all kind of right down the 532 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 2: middle for what America is interested in. 533 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 3: Yep, And so it should be. So this isn't like 534 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 3: you know, a company like Kodak or you know, like 535 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 3: you they're not making a product that's outdated and they 536 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 3: had trouble they have. They have a number of issues. 537 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 3: I mean, look just straight business issues. Male traffic is down, 538 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:42,959 Speaker 3: but look a lot of companies that depend on mole 539 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 3: traffic are thriving. So I don't buy that. I think 540 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 3: what caused them to go bankrupt is that they went 541 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 3: full woke in recent years, and I think that alienated 542 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 3: a lot of their customer base. If you look at 543 00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 3: their I spent some time perusing their corporate today, and 544 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 3: it's got the you know, it talks about cis gender 545 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 3: that ableism, uh and the white media. There's this whole 546 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 3: thing about white mediocrity. This is this, this is super 547 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 3: alienating to the normal customer and. 548 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 2: There it really is a brand for normal people. Like 549 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 2: that's the whole thing. This is not a brand that's 550 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 2: catering to you know, people who go shopping on Melrose 551 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 2: in West Hollywood. It's like, this is the this is 552 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 2: normal clothes for normal people. And that's the problem here. 553 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 3: They I mean, they had they went all in on 554 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 3: Black Lives Matter. They they at one point sponsored some 555 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 3: sort of like film award where they gave out grants 556 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 3: but only to bipock people. I get black indigitou people 557 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 3: love color. So you know, like the kind of discrimination 558 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 3: that I think a lot of corporations went in on 559 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,720 Speaker 3: right after, specifically in twenty twenty, when we had this 560 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 3: like corporate panic and the you know, the media fooled 561 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 3: everybody with this like racial reckoning, convinced everybody that they 562 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 3: wanted far left race stuff. The CEO at one point 563 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 3: was talking about how one of his favorite books was 564 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 3: by Ibrahim X Kendy. I mean, you know who's like 565 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 3: the core critical race theory guy. 566 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 2: No, No, he's in the racial grievance industry. That's his 567 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 2: main industry. So let me ask though about this, because 568 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 2: you know they were seen I remember John, this is 569 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 2: ringing a bell that they were. Then they have a 570 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 2: bunch of like four Broncos that were Eddie Bauer edition. 571 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 2: I mean, these were marketing towards it was very normal marketing, 572 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 2: and then they moved toward this folk stuff. But it's 573 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 2: always been Seattle based. I just wonder if you can 574 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 2: take the company out of Seattle, but you can't take 575 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:50,320 Speaker 2: the Seattle out of the company. 576 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think that may be part of it. 577 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 3: The corporate the culture, the left wing culture there went 578 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 3: kind of nuts, right, and so they ended up in 579 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 3: this really far left place. And you're right, there used 580 00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 3: to be Eddie Bauer cars. They actually designed parkas for 581 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 3: soldiers in World War Two. Like they were a pretty 582 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 3: core American company, and they let themselves get pulled way 583 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 3: to the left. And my story on Breitbart about it, 584 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 3: I have a lot of quotes from their blogs, from 585 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 3: their corporate executives, and what's interesting to me is that 586 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 3: there was no organized boycott. As far as I can tell, 587 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 3: it's not. It wasn't you know, like bud Light right 588 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 3: where it was so there was like an instance that 589 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 3: was so shocking. But I think what happens is that 590 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 3: people just start to get turned off. They no longer 591 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 3: look at that brand as theirs, right, it's not standing 592 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 3: up for their values. In fact, it's attacking them when 593 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 3: you have you know, when you have your corporate blog 594 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 3: post talking about mediocre white people, guess who's not gonna 595 00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 3: shop in your store anymore? Regular white people who you 596 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 3: just call mediocre? 597 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, absolutely and terrible. Okay, so ri iPad Bauer. 598 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 2: But is there anything else the reading too it? 599 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:17,719 Speaker 1: Uh? 600 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 3: I mean if I were the rest of this category, 601 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 3: because look, as you said, a lot of these companies 602 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 3: are based in the Pacific Northwest, and a lot of 603 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,120 Speaker 3: them are pretty left wing. But I think Americans don't 604 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 3: mind if like they're like outdoor Gear company is going 605 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 3: to be like a little climate activisty right, whatever, Fine, 606 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 3: we get it. You know, you're you're really into that stuff. 607 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 3: So I think when you do the transgender and critical 608 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 3: race theory, I think that alienates people. They're like, that's 609 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 3: not part of why is that your brand amission? It 610 00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 3: doesn't really make sense. So I think that it's a 611 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 3: warning sign to other, you know, storied American companies. You 612 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 3: you know, don't stay out of politics when you can, 613 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 3: or at least if you're going to engage in politics, 614 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 3: stay in the politics that are in your laye. Again, 615 00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 3: I think we were forgiving. If you know, if the 616 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 3: hiking companies want to talk about you know, pollution or 617 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 3: even you know, climate change, I don't think they should 618 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,360 Speaker 3: do that, but if they do, I think we'll be 619 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 3: okay with that. 620 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 2: It's just so tough though this whole space, because I 621 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,480 Speaker 2: was looking at it. You know, Patagonia, their founder said, 622 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 2: the the capitalist systems destroying the planet. Even though the guys, 623 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 2: you know, a billionaire, the they pay the bill for 624 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 2: employees arrested at a pro abortion protest, They donate to 625 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 2: Planned Parenthood. They fund of this group called Refuse Activism, 626 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 2: which was behind this Berkeley riot. The and it's just 627 00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,359 Speaker 2: like the I believe that that last one is true. 628 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 2: Hold on, I want to make sure I don't get 629 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 2: any get any trouble. You have a lot more money 630 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 2: to sue me. Yeah. Yeah, they gave forty greeto that thing. 631 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 2: So it's the So here's the point. And then I 632 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 2: look at the North Face, which is another Eddie Bauer competitor, 633 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,920 Speaker 2: and they've got a bunch of other woke stuff. They 634 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 2: drag queens in an ad and they were among sponsors 635 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,239 Speaker 2: of an LGBTQ camp for twelve year old who can 636 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 2: perform and drag Like what it's the Why can't you 637 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,959 Speaker 2: just dress up for just some light weather without having 638 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,040 Speaker 2: to contribute some sort of woke cause. 639 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,040 Speaker 3: I think there's a huge opportunity for one of these companies. 640 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,760 Speaker 3: And I don't know if it's ll Bean or Arii. 641 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,400 Speaker 3: Arii is also from out in the far left region 642 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 3: of the country, but like Elbean, I mean, it's from Maine, 643 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,800 Speaker 3: and Maine has its own political problems. But you know, 644 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 3: maybe one of the you know there, I think there's 645 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 3: a huge opportunity for a non woke, non far left 646 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,759 Speaker 3: outdoor gear company to come in and take market share, uh, 647 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 3: at least one way i'd put it is, if you're 648 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 3: trying to look for a competitive advantage in this field, 649 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 3: going far left is a crowded market. There's no more 650 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 3: you know, there's no more people who are like, oh, 651 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 3: you know what, there's not a leftist out there is 652 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 3: Like I really wish there were a outdoor gear brand 653 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 3: that had my values. Yeah, they all do, So maybe 654 00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,360 Speaker 3: there's an opportunity there for some of the other companies, 655 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 3: maybe the smaller ones. Well Bean's pretty big and I 656 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 3: haven't noticed them being far left, so maybe maybe they'll 657 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 3: move into the space. 658 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 2: All right, let me let me switch gears here, John, 659 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 2: This is the one I really wanted to talk about 660 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,080 Speaker 2: the most, but it kind of gets pushed down the 661 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 2: list when I'm ever. I'm not totally agenda driven, which 662 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 2: I think is nice. But we I talked about this 663 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 2: briefly in the Live Red New Show where there's this 664 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,959 Speaker 2: panic over this data from the something called Challenger Challenger data, 665 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 2: and it suggested that we're experiencing layoffs at a fifteen 666 00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,600 Speaker 2: year high people who just get headlines from mainstream media. 667 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,919 Speaker 2: That's what they were told late this week. So break 668 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,120 Speaker 2: some of this down for us. Sure, First of all, 669 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:11,839 Speaker 2: let's talk about what this is. So Challenger Gray puts 670 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 2: out a report. They're an executive recruitment and company. 671 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 3: They put out a report every month, almost like advertising 672 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 3: for themselves. It gets their name out there, that is, 673 00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 3: and they've been doing this for years and years. That 674 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:32,920 Speaker 3: basically counts up corporate announcements of layoffs and Warren notices. 675 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,840 Speaker 3: Those are like official government notices by big companies that 676 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 3: they're going to do layoffs. They count these up and 677 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,879 Speaker 3: they say how many of these got announced in the month. 678 00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,439 Speaker 3: So this was how many layoffs got announced in the month. 679 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 3: The huge number was something like one hundred and fifteen thousand. Now, 680 00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,880 Speaker 3: just to make to be clear about that, if we 681 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,120 Speaker 3: ever had a month in America where only one hundred 682 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,839 Speaker 3: and fifteen thousand peace got laid off, it would mean 683 00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 3: that we had had a plague that killed off most 684 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:10,360 Speaker 3: of Americans. They're like every week at least two hundred 685 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:15,360 Speaker 3: thousand people lose their jobs in America, far more than that. 686 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 3: A average month, around a million people lose their jobs. 687 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:22,880 Speaker 3: That's in a good month. By the way, those are 688 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,560 Speaker 3: like good times, that's not like the bad times. I'm 689 00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,280 Speaker 3: not talking about during a recession. I mean, in a growing, 690 00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,719 Speaker 3: thriving economy, two hundred thousand people lose their jobs. Up 691 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 3: to three hundred thousand people can lose their jobs, and 692 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:36,520 Speaker 3: your economy can in a week can be doing well. 693 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 3: So the Challenger Gray thing is counting a very small number, 694 00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 3: and the January number was up. 695 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,719 Speaker 2: So what is the number they're counting? Like, where are 696 00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,759 Speaker 2: they getting the information? 697 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,320 Speaker 3: What is it? That's basically corporate press releases and in 698 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 3: this case Amazon and ups accounted by my count, forty 699 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,759 Speaker 3: two percent of the total amount of the Challenger Gray 700 00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,040 Speaker 3: counted layoffs. So basically what they do is they, you know, 701 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,200 Speaker 3: companies announced all the time, we're you know, we're shutting 702 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 3: down this unit, or we're we're having we're going to 703 00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,359 Speaker 3: computerize the factory in this area, or this warehouse will 704 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 3: employ less of people. And when those announcements get made, 705 00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 3: Challenge are Gray, you know, tallies them all up for 706 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 3: a month. That's where the number comes from. It's not 707 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 3: actual layoffs, it's actually announced laoffs. And very often these 708 00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:32,160 Speaker 3: layoffs either never happen or happen months from now. So 709 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 3: a company may, you know, in January announce a whole 710 00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 3: bunch of layoffs. So the number was up something like 711 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 3: one hundred and five percent from December, but the December 712 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:46,360 Speaker 3: number was very low, which may just be like companies 713 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,440 Speaker 3: didn't want to fire people in December because it's Christmas, 714 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:55,760 Speaker 3: and the January number was but it was high for January. 715 00:39:56,239 --> 00:40:01,520 Speaker 3: But again, these numbers are small and very volatile. What 716 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,200 Speaker 3: like economists like to do when they look at this 717 00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,440 Speaker 3: is say, don't look at one month, look at three months. 718 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,160 Speaker 3: So if you look at the three month average, it's 719 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:15,000 Speaker 3: around seventy seven thousand. That's high too, So you know, 720 00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,279 Speaker 3: it's not that there are no layoffs happening. It's just 721 00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,520 Speaker 3: that these apocalyptic headlines are bad. And then if you 722 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,480 Speaker 3: look at the actual data, so you look at jolts 723 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 3: or you look at the jobless claims, there's not a 724 00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,440 Speaker 3: lot of layoffs at all. So I think the headlines 725 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,800 Speaker 3: have been irresponsible. I don't think that they reflect reality. 726 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,319 Speaker 3: I think if there was there was one month, by 727 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,800 Speaker 3: the way, under Biden when we saw something like a 728 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 3: three hundred percent increase in Challenger Gray layoffs and it 729 00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,320 Speaker 3: just got brushed out of the carpet. You know, you 730 00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,520 Speaker 3: know why that was right, because they don't you know, 731 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,680 Speaker 3: there was nothing for them to gain by playing up 732 00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,480 Speaker 3: the idea that the economy was going to fall apart. 733 00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 3: Now they want to create that idea. It's just not 734 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:03,759 Speaker 3: true of people are We don't have the January jobs number. 735 00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:05,560 Speaker 3: We're not going to get those that for a little 736 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,320 Speaker 3: while because of the because of the new government shutdown 737 00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,200 Speaker 3: that like mini government shutdown that just happened. Normally we'd 738 00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,920 Speaker 3: be getting them on Friday. This time we're not. But 739 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,880 Speaker 3: what we but the jobless claims, which are a proxy 740 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 3: for layoffs, they're like the best measure we have of 741 00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,680 Speaker 3: people losing their jobs in America. They're not high, they're 742 00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,719 Speaker 3: not elevated. So the challenger gray numbers should really be 743 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:34,520 Speaker 3: dismissed unless they're confirmed at some point by the jobless claims. 744 00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,520 Speaker 3: Otherwise people shouldn't pay attention to them. 745 00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 2: All right, So let me give the top line stuff. 746 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,600 Speaker 2: So these aren't the actual layoffs. These are press releases, 747 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,359 Speaker 2: so they're kind of reading between the lines, and then 748 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 2: the government data suggests the opposite is true. 749 00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's not a lot. It's not that the opposite 750 00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:57,600 Speaker 3: is true, it's that most layoffs, most jobs in America 751 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:04,279 Speaker 3: don't happen, aren't announced right, Like, so when when twenty 752 00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:08,080 Speaker 3: people lose their job somewhere because like a pizza hut 753 00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,399 Speaker 3: closes down, that's not you know, like pizza hut doesn't 754 00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,319 Speaker 3: make it an announcement. The announcements come when a big 755 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,759 Speaker 3: company is laying off tens of thousands of people. So 756 00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,279 Speaker 3: that's where these numbers come from. So that's why they're 757 00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:23,120 Speaker 3: not representative of the of what's going on in the 758 00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,000 Speaker 3: entire economy. 759 00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:32,480 Speaker 2: Okay, so what do you say a weekend. No one's 760 00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,759 Speaker 2: barbecuing right now, but you know you're at some sort 761 00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,680 Speaker 2: of a function. Someone asks you, hey, Cartier, your bright 762 00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 2: bart economic guru, how come the showy layoffs going on? 763 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,399 Speaker 3: What is your What is your response to these people? 764 00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:46,320 Speaker 3: It's that there aren't a lot of layoffs going on. 765 00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,320 Speaker 3: That the again, to get back to the jobless claims. 766 00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,239 Speaker 3: Jobless claims tell us that layoffs are actually very low, 767 00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:58,280 Speaker 3: that people are not losing their jobs, We're not hiring 768 00:42:58,400 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 3: a ton of people. There's not a ton of job 769 00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,600 Speaker 3: creation going on. But there is not a lot of 770 00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,920 Speaker 3: job losses occurring. And the unemployment rate, which is the 771 00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:11,239 Speaker 3: other thing you should look at, is very low. Now 772 00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 3: that could change. Look the labor market changes can change rapidly, 773 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,839 Speaker 3: so maybe things will change, But right now, the data 774 00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,440 Speaker 3: does not support the idea that there are a lot 775 00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,520 Speaker 3: of layoffs. There have been more announced layoffs by big companies, 776 00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,760 Speaker 3: and in particular this was driven by Amazon and UPS, 777 00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,840 Speaker 3: which by the way, are not unrelated. Right Like, when 778 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,560 Speaker 3: Amazon isn't doing that well, neither is UPS because guests 779 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,960 Speaker 3: who delivers all of those packages. Right, If Amazon is 780 00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,239 Speaker 3: cutting back, it makes sense that UPS is cutting back, 781 00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,080 Speaker 3: or the other way. If UPS is coming back, that 782 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,160 Speaker 3: probably means Amazon doesn't need as many people to do 783 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,759 Speaker 3: some of the work that's getting done. So not only 784 00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,920 Speaker 3: are they not representative of the whole economy, they're not 785 00:43:55,040 --> 00:44:00,560 Speaker 3: even independent variables. They're actually operating in a very interrelated space. 786 00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:06,400 Speaker 2: Okay, So here's the last thing I want to get 787 00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 2: to in this. So I want to get a sense 788 00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,520 Speaker 2: of the changes in the economy that have taken place 789 00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,799 Speaker 2: essentially since we start cracking on immigration. And the way 790 00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,640 Speaker 2: that I think you've described in the past is a 791 00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:23,120 Speaker 2: low higher low fire equilibrium where we're basically adjusting from 792 00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,120 Speaker 2: an economy where we constantly be cycling in people who 793 00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:31,480 Speaker 2: are working relatively menial jobs and because their immigrants are 794 00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,320 Speaker 2: new to the country, and that was a lot of 795 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,360 Speaker 2: what our economy and our numbers were based off of. 796 00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,280 Speaker 2: We're having less of that. So is this all positive 797 00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,799 Speaker 2: thing because we want to get immigration under control, because 798 00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,040 Speaker 2: they'll drive up wages of Americans, will drive down rent. 799 00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,880 Speaker 2: We've seen rent go down a lot, so that's a positive. 800 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,480 Speaker 2: But what does this new low higher low fire equilibrium 801 00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,320 Speaker 2: really mean for normal Americans? 802 00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:58,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think it's only good news. The fact 803 00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,920 Speaker 3: is that the number that we saw in the past, 804 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,480 Speaker 3: where where we would read, you know, each month, we're 805 00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:10,799 Speaker 3: getting two hundred thousand jobs in the post pandemic era, 806 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,080 Speaker 3: a lot of that. So initially it was driven by 807 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 3: people getting rehired because we reopened the economy, But then 808 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,040 Speaker 3: a huge part of it was the fact that we 809 00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,560 Speaker 3: had so many people coming into America. And it's not 810 00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:26,480 Speaker 3: like that all of the jobs were necessarily going the 811 00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:28,840 Speaker 3: new jobs were going to these people, but you have 812 00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:33,320 Speaker 3: this flood of people coming in. The constant threat of 813 00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:37,120 Speaker 3: new people meant that it was hard to ask for 814 00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:40,680 Speaker 3: higher wages, better working conditions because the boss could just say, 815 00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,360 Speaker 3: you know, there's going to be ten thousand more people 816 00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,520 Speaker 3: coming over the border tomorrow. That's not good for workers, 817 00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:51,239 Speaker 3: it's not good for the American economy. It actually leads 818 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,880 Speaker 3: to what I would call a low wage, low skill, 819 00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,800 Speaker 3: low productive equilibrium, where the economy is operating and it 820 00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:03,000 Speaker 3: seems to be growing pretty well and it's employing, it's 821 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,960 Speaker 3: creating lots of generating lots of jobs, but you're not 822 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:11,520 Speaker 3: Actually people aren't doing as well. What you want is 823 00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:16,120 Speaker 3: high productivity, high wage, and high growth. That's the economy 824 00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 3: we're moving to, and high wage, high growth. 825 00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:22,480 Speaker 2: So sometimes you're saying low higher, low fire, could lean 826 00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:28,520 Speaker 2: could eventually evolve to high wage, high growth. Yeah, do 827 00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:29,520 Speaker 2: you feel like we're on that path? 828 00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,400 Speaker 3: I do. So we see this already. The productivity numbers 829 00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,440 Speaker 3: coming out of the government, which is like how much 830 00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:39,120 Speaker 3: each worker produces for every hour of labor they put 831 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:43,520 Speaker 3: in our skyrocketing. We're having a productivity boom. We're seeing 832 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:48,319 Speaker 3: companies do capital investment because they can't rely on cheap labor, 833 00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,000 Speaker 3: and they know they won't be able to for a 834 00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:55,200 Speaker 3: long time to come. They're deciding to say, how can 835 00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,279 Speaker 3: I make my current workforce more productive. When their current 836 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,759 Speaker 3: workforce is more productive, they can actually pay them more so, 837 00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,719 Speaker 3: what we're seeing is a I think this is good 838 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,480 Speaker 3: for Americans. And just to put some numbers around this, 839 00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:12,680 Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and economists there, he 840 00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:18,719 Speaker 3: estimated that in twenty twenty three twenty twenty four, the 841 00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:23,200 Speaker 3: economy needed something like one hundred to two hundred thousand 842 00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:27,759 Speaker 3: new jobs every month just to keep up with the 843 00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:36,120 Speaker 3: population growth driven by immigration. Now, because of Trump's immigration 844 00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 3: crackdown on illegals, what we are seeing is a dramatic decline. 845 00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,880 Speaker 3: And the Dallas FED estimate is that we only need 846 00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:49,440 Speaker 3: thirty thousand jobs a month to keep up with the population. 847 00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,319 Speaker 3: In other words, if we only add thirty thousand jobs 848 00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,560 Speaker 3: a month, unemployment rate will not go up, will be 849 00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,759 Speaker 3: at more or less full employment. So whenever you see 850 00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:03,200 Speaker 3: a job's number now, I think, is it greater or 851 00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,880 Speaker 3: lesser than thirty thousand? Frankly, that break even number, that's 852 00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,759 Speaker 3: what they call it, the break even. Maybe even lower 853 00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:13,200 Speaker 3: than thirty thousand, because Trump has continued the crackdown on 854 00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:18,799 Speaker 3: illegal immigration. So but you know the Dallas number right now, 855 00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:21,600 Speaker 3: the Dallas Fed number is thirty thousand. So if you 856 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:25,359 Speaker 3: see fifty thousand, that means we're adding more jobs then 857 00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:30,440 Speaker 3: we need to. Anything above thirty thousand means we're actually 858 00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:33,840 Speaker 3: growing the labor market faster than the workforce is growing. 859 00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 3: The only way you can do that is probably by 860 00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:38,680 Speaker 3: bringing people who had dropped out of the labor force 861 00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,919 Speaker 3: in so that there is some room to grow slightly faster, 862 00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,080 Speaker 3: but not much. The other thing, I'll just say that 863 00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,560 Speaker 3: it's driving It's not just immigration crackdown. We also have 864 00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,440 Speaker 3: an aging population and so people are retiring, so that 865 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:56,520 Speaker 3: also means that you need fewer job new jobs being created, John. 866 00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,200 Speaker 2: Carne, anything else you think the audience really needs to 867 00:48:58,239 --> 00:48:58,799 Speaker 2: know at this point? 868 00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:03,040 Speaker 3: Uh? You know. One thing I think that will a 869 00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,040 Speaker 3: lot will turn on is when we finally get the 870 00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,480 Speaker 3: jobs numbers. We haven't had jobs numbers come out on 871 00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:12,360 Speaker 3: time for months because of the government shutdown. We're not 872 00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,480 Speaker 3: getting it in January. When that comes out, I think 873 00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,760 Speaker 3: that will be clarifying. Look, if the unemployment rate jumps 874 00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:23,239 Speaker 3: up or the job creation number terms terms negative, then 875 00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:25,799 Speaker 3: we'll we'll know we have a problem, and it will 876 00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:27,359 Speaker 3: mean by the way that the FAT has to cut 877 00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:31,720 Speaker 3: interest rates. But if we produce more than thirty thousand 878 00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,120 Speaker 3: jobs and the unemployment rate doesn't jump up a lot. 879 00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,440 Speaker 3: All of this fear mongering about the labor market that 880 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,800 Speaker 3: we're seeing today will look embarrassing and silly. 881 00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:45,960 Speaker 2: John Corney, you're a fond of information and you're nice 882 00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:47,480 Speaker 2: to hang out with as well. You at the Bride 883 00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:49,640 Speaker 2: our business digest that I also contribute a little bit 884 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,200 Speaker 2: too as well. You can get that at brightboard dot com. 885 00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,840 Speaker 2: Just hit the newsletters, got to subscribe. Hundreds of thousands 886 00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,160 Speaker 2: of subscribers. You should join them, and you should enjoy 887 00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:58,719 Speaker 2: it is read by some of the most powerful people 888 00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:00,239 Speaker 2: in the world, and for good reason. This is a 889 00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,360 Speaker 2: delightful read and you will always learn. Thanks John, appreciate you. 890 00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,600 Speaker 2: Thanks to Missy for putting this together, and everyone in 891 00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,239 Speaker 2: the Marlow audience. See you next time.